Just sad. No, not sad. Pathetic.
 

Here we have a Probstein auction for a pretty nice Walter Johnson T206 portrait that I might have considered bidding on, as I am in the market for one just like this. But when I saw some of the shenanigans going on (by the way, that's me being respectful of the forum, and honoring the rules, Leon. I have a few other words I'd really like to employ here, but won't), there wasn't a chance in hell I was getting involved. Because, silly me, when I bid on something, I consider that legally binding. Apparently I'm just weird, or behind in the times, or just stubbornly ethical.

But, I suppose I'm misinterpreting what I'm seeing here. I'm sure there's a completely logical explanation for this, right, Rick? Because, after all, a dealer cannot be expected to keep tabs on all the bidders on their auctions, even when one potential buyer (LOL) has bid over 5,000 times on their auctions within the past 30 days.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/T206-Walter-...-/380890877430

Bidder: i***r ( 546Feedback score is 500 to 999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 5109
Items bid on: 958
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 52% Help
Bid retractions: 24
Bid retractions (6 months): 72

Bidder: d***f ( 859Feedback score is 500 to 999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 4592
Items bid on: 4092
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 81% Help
Bid retractions: 4
Bid retractions (6 months): 133


Bidder: 2***e ( 6825Feedback score is 5,000 to 9,999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 768
Items bid on: 636
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 31% Help
Bid retractions: 0
Bid retractions (6 months): 9

Bidder: 4***c ( 932Feedback score is 500 to 999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 327
Items bid on: 190
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 33% Help
Bid retractions: 0
Bid retractions (6 months): 7

Statement appears to be inaccurate. See math below.



Bidder: i***r ( 546Feedback score is 500 to 999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 5109
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 52%
--------------------------------------------------
Bids with this seller =~ 2657

Bidder: d***f ( 859Feedback score is 500 to 999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 4592
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 81% Help
--------------------------------------------------
Bids with this seller =~ 3765


Bidder: 2***e ( 6825Feedback score is 5,000 to 9,999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 768
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 31% Help
--------------------------------------------------
Bids with this seller =~ 238



Bidder: 4***c ( 932Feedback score is 500 to 999)
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 327
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 33% Help
--------------------------------------------------
Bids with this seller =~ 108

Now we wait for the obligatory replies of:

"I'm tired of all these type of posts"
"Nothing gets accomplished with these posts"
"No one can do anything about it, so why bother"
"You can't expect him to track ALL those listings at the same time"
"These posts are useless"
"Instead of complaining, why not pose a solution"

That doesn't even cover those individuals who attempt to make excuses for this type of rampant fraud.

Ha Ha...yup...here we go again...and again...

The good thing is, there's the Probstein logo right on the picture when you are looking at the listings. So do like I do, just zoom right past them without a 2nd glance! :D

Blazzy blah. :)

Hopefully this response to the counting was sarcasm?

No judge, that is totally wrong, I didn't shoot him 29 times in self defense, I shot him 27 times. Big difference!! :cool:

Personally, if I ran ebay the seller and bidders would be in trouble.

You're right, I had a brain fart. That's still a hell of a lot of bids, and the sentiment is still the same.

Try simply sniping what you think a card is worth and are happy paying. Then what happens, happens.

Why even look at bidding histories when people are retracting now just to make an auction look bad-- akin to dissing a card to dampen interest. You know what annoying TMZ drivel is on that channel, so why tune in and annoy yourself? It is tantamount to masochism.

PWCC has a few cards I think are gorgeous up right now. I am not going to let some shiller/owners enter my head for a moment. I snipe what I'm happy paying and let the chips fall. And I'm happy. The rest is headaches. I like great cards and no headaches. Why aggravate oneself?

I'm not a fan of shilling but if that was a card I wanted I would set a snipe at the number I'm comfortable, and at the same time notify Rick about the activity. He may ban those bidders and you might get the card at a good price. Worst case scenario you pay what your comfortable paying for the card.

Understood but I think these threads are good. It's good to know the dishonest (by the fact of looking the other way) sellers and shenanigans going on, on things we bid on. I snipe but still don't like to pay more due to fraud than I should have to. Or you can just ignore it.....

And I do agree about bidding what you want to and no more. I do that anyway....(usually)

Leon,

To be clear, in my last post I am not making any commentary on the thread or calling posts like this whining.

I am just offering an approach that leads to less Sturm und Drang, less negative mental energy and frustration, and more happiness on a daily level for the fellow collector.

I very seldom get frustrated over this kind of thing. I usually get more frustrated on AH bidding that goes well beyond my meager means on things I really want (and have a sliver of a chance of obtaining).

Maybe we should just be happy for the cards...commanding such high prices...I mean don't they deserve it?

What you are happy paying is in part a function of your perception of the market, and if that market is driven up by fraud.... you get the point.

Hello, Matt. You're pretty new to the board, but there have been several threads over the last couple of years about Probstein's consignors shilling their own auctions. Rick was notified and did absolutely nothing about it. This was back when you could link eBay transactions by the buyer's and seller's feedback, but eBay has since decided to protect the shillers and make it nearly impossible to determine that anymore.

One shiller, Joseph M Pankiewicz, would buy cards on eBay, consign them to Rick and bid on his own cards. This was clearly evident from the bid history. This was all done by username and feedback, but again, eBay has decided they want to protect shillers and that is no longer possible. At the time, it was brought to Rick's attention, he chose to do nothing about it. Last time I looked, he still allows Panky to consign.

Hi David: I'm new but have been reading the board for around a year and have read all those threads. I just can get myself worked up about shilling. That said, I collect mostly hockey HOF rookies - which is why i don't post often-and mostly mid grade so shilling isn't as big an issue as it is in the baseball world.

My style is closer to MattyC's, I don't get too caught up in all the BS that comes with the hobby, it's a chance for me to get away from a very competitive/high paced career that comes with all the BS I can handle.

What do you think of this business plan:

--Buy raw cards with minor flaws
--"Improve" raw cards
--Get them slabbed
--Consign to Probstein
--Shill auctions
--repeat

Did I miss any steps?

I think there's a "deny, deflect, or ignore" step in there somewhere. ;)

Wasn't trying to be sarcastic at all.

Only trying to make the point that dealing with something accurately adds credibility, in my opinion.

No doubt it's better to be accurate. Because shooting someone 27 times is much different than 29 times, right? Whether it's 5000 bids or 3700 bids wasn't the point. The egregious and fraudulent bidding patterns are the issue. Fraud is fraud, and to me retracting that many bids and bidding that often with one seller, looks like fraud to me. But I do agree in being accurate.

You missed the parallel step of buying centered slabbed cards with minor flaws and "improving" them.

Yes, they do. And I appreciate the veiled reference to an earlier post. There are many cards in the hobby that I admire and root for, if you will, to gain greater stature and value. More of which I don't own than I do. I often find myself rooting for cards the way I root for players. I believe some great, beautiful cards of great players are underappreciated or undervalued, and thus deserve to be worth more. The Frederick Foto Ruth is a prime example.

I have gotten good deals on some SGC/PSA graded pre war cards in his auctions & am happy there is someone who does the 99cent auction daily the way he does. I have noticed his consignment rates are perhaps the lowest in the indusry as well.
Shilling indeed sucks.....But I am still trying to deal with Hal Chase being banned for fixing games 100 years ago.
Paul C

While we are pointing out missed steps I'd like to highlight that that model doesn't produce any revenue without a buyer willing to pay way over historical values. As long as there are collectors that just have to have a certain card at any price there will be auctions that don't make much sense.

Anyone that has VCP access and is following certain cards know that for every shilled auction, there is some idiot pulling the trigger on a BIN at 30% over the previous sale. Which is why I don't lose any sleep over this - it's impossible for me to pay more than I'm comfortable with a card because I simply don't pay more than I am comfortable for card (or a car, dishwasher or deck reno).

--Profit

Agreed, I totally get it. I'm just content to factor everything in to my comfortable paying prices. There's reality, which needs to be lived in and faced, and then there is pining for some parallel universe in which certain daily annoyances don't exist (not saying anyone here is doing that, just pointing out a path on which I do not want to find myself).

This is not to say making all collectors aware of shilling is not a great service. It is. And knowledge is power. I just think the best thing to do with that knowledge is factor it in, understand what price it takes to acquire a desired card, and either reel that baby in and enjoy it as part of a collection, or not.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

This is why fraud succeeds, because people (not singling you out, we are all guilty of it to some extent) just become complacent/resigned and accept fraud as part of the landscape.

I agree. The hobby is ideally a source of great enjoyment, an escape from the daily stressors. If one's hobby becomes a source of anger and annoyance, then I think there's a problem. In the end, I think cards are pure and pleasurable. Cards are never snide. They never get petty or envious. They never nag or break balls. They never get fat and out of shape. Human beings, on the other hand...

I hear ya. But I don't think there's a way to ever rid the hobby or the world of fraud altogether; perhaps it's a misanthropic worldview, but I believe it is part and parcel of the human race. I think the best we can do, hobby-wise, is educate ourselves, factor in inflated prices when formulating bids, choose to abstain from bids (if one prefers), learn how to spot shilling and fake sales, etc. And one must also strike the balance between, on one hand, maintaining an awareness of and rooting out fraud, and on the other, leading a happy life-- especially within one's hobby, which is ideally a source of pleasure. If the cost of combatting fraud at the most knightly level is a default state of frothy rage or annoyance, a state that makes the hobby unenjoyable, that might not be a cost some are willing to pay. So some hobbyists may choose to adopt a more even approach of vigilance and caution that does not over-consume or cause one too much heartburn ;)

We also have to end apartheid, for one. And slow down the nuclear arms race, stop terrorism, and world hunger. We have to provide food and shelter for the homeless, and oppose racial discrimination and promote civil rights, while also promoting equal rights for women. We have to encourage a return to traditional moral values. Most importantly, we have to promote general social concern and less materialism in young people.

[QUOTE=japhi;1270857]
Anyone that has VCP access and is following certain cards know that for every shilled auction, there is some idiot pulling the trigger on a BIN at 30% over the previous sale. QUOTE]

I will take exception to this comment. I have been that "idiot", as I am sure MANY here have been as well. When I knowingly overpay on a BIN, it's because I want/need that card, and at that time, that price is what that card is worth. And if I deem that card is worth that amount, well, than that is an accurate reading on value. ANY card is only worth what someone is willing to pay, not what any VCP or any "guide" is reporting. I often times see these guides oblivious to market realities...I see it in reverse all the time as well, our own B/S/T always has sought after cards under the "VCP" price, advertised as such, and not get a second look. Supply and demand dictate price, and often times the demand for an overpriced BIN is purchased because there is no supply to fuel the demand. Calling that purchaser an "idiot" is ignorant.

[QUOTE=Harliduck;1270883]I could not agree more, Hardi.

I personally think viewing card values exclusively through the prism of numerical grades and VCP grids is myopic. In my opinion, all cards in the same grade are not equal, and so it makes sense that they should not sell for equal values.

If one expects to pay "VCP average" for a card in GRADE X that makes all others in its grade (and some even above) look like dog meat, one is doomed to never have the pleasure of owning that card. The previous sale may have been of an overgraded card with heinous eye appeal.

As you said, a card is "worth" whatever one is willing to pay. There is no set value, ever. Each card has its own attributes, even if the sticker is identical to another sticker. Grades can be identical but cards are not. There are collectors who buy the card, and thus with no two specimens of the same card being identical, the prices-- to collectors with this view-- won't be identical either.

That said, if another collector believes all cards in GRADE X should sell for exactly the same number, to each his own and let every collector be happy.

+1

I treat every auction like it may have a hidden reserve. I have never paid more for a card than I was prepared to. And, I don't get caught up in the concern that my price expectations may be inflated by a false market created by shillers.

Having said this, I appreciate these threads, and I factor in all of this information into my bidding strategy.

Matt, I understand your thinking. In theory, if I'm willing to pay up to $1,000 on a card, I can just set an alarm on my phone to give me a "five minutes to auction end" warning, then load up my laptop, desktop computer or the Ebay app on my Windows phone, and put in my $1,000 bid right before the auction ends. And, if I get the card right at $1,000, I should be happy, as that's what I was willing to pay, right? I got the card, and nobody was able to make me exceed my budget.

Only, what if I would have gotten the card for $900, or $950 if it weren't for the shill bidder?

Four years ago, I wouldn't have given it a second thought. I was a single guy living on my own, and after getting my stock broker licenses, I got a pretty big promotion. I was making a good deal of money. So, $50 or $100 would have seemed insignificant to me. But since getting hurt, my thinking has changed. I am more mindful of wasting things now, money included. Losing $50 or $100 due to what is essentially criminal activity is completely unnecessary. When we become accepting of these kinds of losses because we didn't want to "stress out" over it, or "give it a second thought", it just enables these crooks further. What is the quotation with a seemingly endless list of variations that's attributed to Edmund Burke? Something to the effect of "all that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." Well? If we are silent, then we're going to get more of the same.

If I were up against one legitimate buyer only, and I was forced to bid the full $1,000 in order to acquire the card, then I'd have no problem. But if I should have gotten the card for less, why should I be even remotely ok with paying more?

My view is that you would not have gotten the card for less if shilling had been prevented, because the seller would not have listed his card in an auction in the first place. Or he would have set a hidden reserve, or a higher minimum bid.

The reason ebay is filled with BINs is because most sellers don't want to have to shill to get their prices. But they're not going to list their items as pure auctions because they are afraid of letting a clean market dictate the price of the item. A price point set by a triggered BIN has the propensity to be just as misleading as a price point set by shill bidders.

Frankly, I think a buyer has a false sense of security if he thinks when he bids in an auction that there are only bona fide bidders competing against him.

I hate to say it, Matt, but if you are always paying 100% of what you've budgeted for the few baseball cards you do buy, you are participating in the BS that comes with the hobby. You do so through no fault of your own, of course, but you are still part of the viscous cycle.

Bill, not directed at you (I think you are spot on), but a general question / observation for others regarding the "willing to pay" argument.

A man is going to buy a pair of shoes. He knows the pair of shoes he wants and he knows they cost $100. He goes into the shoe store and they are on sale for $50.

Which guy are you? The one who pays $50 for the shoes, or the one who gives the clerk $100 for the shoes, reasoning that you were willing to pay $100 for the shoes anyway?

[QUOTE=Harliduck;1270883]Idiot was too strong and I would be labeling myself and idiot then as I've overpaid for a card I like.

My point was collectors pay inflated prices all the time, be it through shilling, BIN's, or just plain ignorance. We've seen lots of threads that show where a buyer pays more for a card from a consignor like PWCC or Probstein than a similar copy available at a lower BIN or an auction that closed a few days earlier that was half the price. As long as the collector is happy with his purchase I don't care if the auction was shilled, a stupid high BIN or an over graded card. Buyer beware and all that.

Of course nobody wants to pay $100 for shoes that he could get for $50. But, to believe that every auction is an opportunity to get $100 shoes for less is why people are lured into auction houses.

[QUOTE=MattyC;1270887]Not to beat the VCP thing to death but all auctions that make it to VCP have images so it is possible to make an apples to apples comparison. I wasn't saying that all 5's are equal, rather VCP gives a buyer most of the info they need to make an informed decision. And with 5-7 years history on each card it's pretty easy to get a good understanding on what a card with good eye appeal in a certain grade should sell for. The fact that buyers go way over historical sales of similar condition cards (as opposed to grades) is not rational buying behavior. Which is okay.

Bill,

I understand and respect your thinking as well, regarding the what ifs of spending X more because of shilling.

I guess where I take a different path is that I see no mental benefit to contemplating all those what ifs. I will never know what a card will have cost me in some alternate reality where the auction was 100% legit collectors bidding. I don't know how such a perfect auction would be run or ever exist.

As another said, in lieu of the straight auction, sellers or owners should just put up reserves or BINS and Best Offers and negotiate for a price.

I think it was Bob Marley who said, "It's a foolish dog who barks at a flying bird." If the 'what ifs' reach a tipping point or critical mass where contemplating them bugs you more than having the card would please you, then I would let the hypothetical card in question go. If having the card at a price you're okay paying will bring you enough joy that you don't care about having potentially spent less in an alternate reality, then I say win the card. At least that's how I see it, and maybe that alternate perspective can be helpful in some way :)

I'm not sure where this is even implied, and not the point anyway. If something would have gone for less (in an auction setting), why is it ok then that it was shilled, as long as you got it for what you were "willing to pay"?

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to clarify.

I'm a real stickler when it comes to providing accurate information. In this case, I just completely flubbed it. ;)

Bill that guilt by association is a BS argument. I don't shill and not even sure if I've been shilled.

My point was very simple; I pay what I'm comfortable - and usually less, I only snipe and I do quite a bit of research before sniping. If there is a card I'm chasing that sells for 400 bucks in a good looking PSA 6 than I set my snipe for 400 bucks, usually less. When I win I generally win below the comparable. I lose way more auctions than I win.

Obviously this way of buying won't work on cards that only come up once a year but I don't play in that sandbox.

If you have a strategy for paying less for cards on Ebay I'm all ears.

PS. good discussion, I mostly lurk as I can't add much value to threads, which may in fact be the case with this thread as well!

Edmund Burke
 

Bill -- precisely.

I'm going to have to disagree with you and Matt here, Pete. Respectfully so, of course. No, I do not feel this card deserves it, and I'll tell you why.

No extraordinary comment about the quality of the card in question has been made by me, the potential bidder, or anybody else really. I said it was a "pretty nice" card. I certainly do not see anything aesthetically superior about this card compared to similarly-graded cards. In fact, based on a comparison of the two scans provided, I think the PSA 3.5 being sold by PWCC has slightly better eye appeal, and of the two cards, that would be the one deserving of a premium, in my opinion. Therefore, to my thinking anyway, the bid history we are seeing with this card is not at all merit based. It is not realizing a more robust price because of how it looks. This is simply schill bidding for shill bidding's sake. The seller wants to ensure that their card sells for a certain amount, not because they feel there is something intrinsically special about the card, but because they want more green in their pocket.

I would have no problem whatsoever paying more for a card if it had superior eye appeal to those of an identical grade. I have examined the price history for this particular card on card target. I could certainly do the same on VCP, paying for a 24 hour membership. And if after establishing a baseline I saw a card that exceeded my expectations for the grade, I'd have no problem paying a premium. Eye appeal is very important to me. But I just don't see anything extraordinary about this card. I have seen fours with sharp corners and edges that present better than this card.

What I am trying to say is that an "auction setting" is really no different than a BIN setting when you assume that there is the potential for shill bidding.

To imagine a world where the shiller is eliminated and the price drops down by $50 is the same thing as imagining a world where a seller places his listing price $50 less than he was willing to sell something for. Stated another way, if you told the shiller up front that he was going to get caught and prosecuted, he would either list his item at the higher price and list it with a higher reserve or minimum starting bid. The fantasy of a world where shilling doesn't exist and markets-clear prices are realized doesn't exist, least of all on eBay.

The reverse is also true. If you had a used car that you wanted to sell for $1,000, and a guy saw it and bought it for that price, you'd be happy, right? But, what if he recognized that your car had really rare features, and he flipped it immediately for $100,000? Of course the buyer would have wanted to get more than $1,000 for it in that case. But there is no mechanism for getting any more money to the buyer. The buyer was happy at his price point, as was the seller, but for different reasons. That certainly doesn't make speculating as a buyer illegal or immoral.

Bill...I was being facetious...I think the concept of "being happy for a card" is kinda ridiculous!!!!

Matt, firstly, I want to make sure that you know I wasn't accusing you of engaging in any nefarious activity. I didn't mean to insinuate that you shill yourself. If I choose my words poorly, I apologize. It's clear to me you're an honest guy, and I can not only appreciate the strategy you employ when bidding in an auction, I've used it myself in the past. It's good common sense. What I do question is the frequency with which we are either hitting that exact ceiling, or coming unnaturally close. I see this more in our niche than I do in the modern card portion of the hobby. This has simply been my observation, so I could be way off.

To borrow your earlier metaphor, I think if one plays in the pre-war and vintage sandbox long enough, eventually we're all going to be exposed to shill bidding, much like if we buy enough cards, graded or not, eventually we're going to get a card that has been slightly trimmed, or altered in some other manner. It's a product of being in a hobby with a lot of money trading hands, and unscrupulous people who want an ever increasing share.

I agree with your comment about this being a good discussion. Ultimately, we may not accomplish anything, but as Leon said, it's important to keep these things visible. :)