Same cert #, DIFFERENT flips and cards (52 Topps Mantle)
 

To be clear, the flips are different (hint: barcodes) and the cards are different (hint: one is variation A, one is variation B). My supposition: the card in the pic has a fake flip and an overgraded or fake card. Thoughts? (I suppose too it could be the other way around -- the card in the scan is the bad one and the card in the pic is the good one. Can anyone tell from the barcodes or fonts?)

Methinks you have spotted a serious inconsistency between the two auctions, counselor. Please proceed.

The second listed card is in a breached slab; the rear view gives it away-- the entire right edge has been compromised clear as day. Front scan was taken against white background to mask it but the back scan against black background makes it a dead giveaway.

I kind of are what you mean but am not as confident.


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Beyond barcodes and fonts, important answers lie on the card...

A key detail is the borders. The lower black border is uncharacteristically thick. It also does not form a perfect right angle with the vertical black borderlines. This variation should form much cleaner lower and top left angles than the ebay example. I just examined several specimens of this variation on VCP, and none exhibit a lower horizontal black border like this ebay example.

The stars within the black seem to be a different size than normal-- smaller.

Lastly, this variation tends to have an gently inward sloping black border on the right side-- to the point where one can just see some of the registration of the card "bleeding" out beyond the border line. With this card on ebay, the right border remains straight and perfectly flush.

Circling back to the flip, I don't like the spacing between the lines of text on the right of the flip. The lines are spaced tighter as I recall. The bar code also seems much too close to the red bottom of the flip.

It seems this ebay card is some type of Frankenstein creation that exhibits characteristics of both variations, along with wholly new traits. I'd pass all day.

Here is a comparison to a known legit example.

http://i741.photobucket.com/albums/x...psa824a85f.jpg

http://www.collectorfocus.com/images...-mickey-mantle

Yeah I thought that might just be the camera flash?

I think the flash would create a similar effect on the other side, yet there are areas of slab border that seem quite clear. Granted, angles and light can be tricky. Yet while frosting is very normal, and often guys do hit the panic button unnecessarily, in this case it runs the entire length of one side-- which is a no-no.

Taken alongside all the other observations pointed out above, I personally would pass.

People love to look for sweet deals on the 311. But a sweet deal on this card is a chimera-- it is bait to scam those hoping to beat the market and "steal" one. To get a real Mantle 311 centered like this ebay example, one has to man up and pay much stronger than the 17k or whatever this seller will accept. At auction this card-- if it were legit-- would need a 20-25k bid to be in contention at the final seconds. End of the day, the best defense against offerings like this ebay example is embracing the fact that there's just no nickel-and-diming a centered 311-- too many people know how rare such a specimen is, and want one for their collections.

The feedback profile also does not inspire consumer confidence, in my opinion.

That card is a 4 -- and a pretty damn spectacular SGC 5.5 just sold for 29 and change in Goodwin. Maybe one doesn't have to use his balls but just his brain to get such a card for a good price?

I don't think the flip looks right for two reasons:

1- the word "topps" in 1952 topps doesn't line up over the name like Matt's card. All other examples i've looked at on VCP and ebay line up like Matt's card.

2- i always scan the bar code on cards that I have questions about. Take a bar code scanner app and scan Matt's card. You'll get a reading back that matches his cert#. Scan the other card and you get a string of numbers that don't match.

I don't think it's real.

Jim

If the card were legit, wouldn't one just put it up at one of the premier auction houses??

+1

What happens if you scan the card in his first auction?

That SGC 5.5 is nowhere near as nicely centered as this fake 4. And PSA slabs sell for more. When the next PSA 4 centered like this fake one surfaces, you bid under 20k and tell me if you win it. You won't. All the brains in the world won't create a reality where a centered PSA 4 with clean surface sells for 17k. I'd bid 20 myself.

that flip looks better to me when I look at the font and lettering and spacing. But when I scan the bar code, i don't get a match. I scanned it a few times but didn't get a match.

I dunno Matt, no 4 has ever sold more than 15K
 

Some of these must be centered? Admit I haven't checked them all. But it seems a bit ambitious to say this 4, with all that corner wear, is a 20-25K card now.

Latest Auction Prices for: PSA 4 - Average Price: $13,491.83


4/27/14 eBay Auction | Image just_collect c***4 31 $15,585.00
12/22/13 eBay Auction | Image sltnofswatcolecter u***r 25 $13,000.00
11/16/13 Goodwin Image 9 $11,890.50
3/3/13 eBay Image calembeeandme f***h 1 $10,300.00
1/1/13 eBay Image memorylaneinc c***a Best Offer $12,000.00
12/25/12 eBay Image outtasite22 a***b 15 $7,100.00
12/13/12 eBay Image sammyweng a***a 28 $9,789.89
11/19/12 eBay Image 1bostonsports s***t BIN $10,255.00
11/18/12 Goldin Image 10 $12,973.40
10/30/12 eBay Image blipchop t***c 11 $8,099.99
9/3/12 eBay Image prewarcardcollector w***m 48 $11,700.00
7/27/12 Greg Bussineau Image 13 $10,680.00
5/20/12 SCP Auctions Image 13 $11,306.40
5/13/12 REA Image 20 $10,072.50
4/15/12 eBay Image mlbfan07 b***b 56 $13,050.00
4/15/12 eBay Image wchappell s***r BIN $13,250.00
4/12/12 eBay Image yooper! i***e Best Offer $10,600.00
2/23/12 eBay Image bordinchick 3***v 40 $11,400.00
1/29/12 eBay Image antiquesandmore100 n***n 2 $10,256.60
12/3/11 eBay Image yooper! c***s Best Offer $12,500.00
10/17/11 eBay Image tbh39 1***0 Best Offer $13,000.00
8/28/11 eBay Image 7983christopher p***2 Best Offer $8,900.00
6/24/11 eBay Image auctionfvr i***k 24 $10,000.50
6/8/11 eBay Image tomh22 b***0 Best Offer $9,000.00
5/1/11 eBay Image nolifecollector k***l 23 $9,867.67

Peter, quoting dated auction data is misleading. VCP is a great guide but it's still in the past. If you bid 13k for the next dead-centered 4 with a good image, you will lose the card. Take my advice or don't, it's all good. If we are talking a legit seller with a dead centered card that has no central image issues and standard corner wear, I'm bidding hard and I know three other buddies who also are-- north of 17 for sure.

The last 4 jumped up a good bit, hit 15.5, and was centered way high with tilt. Perfect centering takes it to baseline 17k, and from there it's just competition so who knows. Just my two cents and I have no crystal ball; would love to buy several for 13k and hold them.

Did you not see the corners on the SGC 5.5? They're sharp, not mushy. That's why the card is a 5.5 and not a 4.

As for your comment that you'll be "bidding hard" on the next centered 4, trust me, everyone on the board knows.

Calvin-- if you like a sharp corner over centering, hey, to each his own. But there's a group of collectors who place an enormous premium of centering, especially for the 311. Sometimes I wish I wasn't one of them. But I love the rare dead centered card that is usually OC, and will happily collect as many as I can. It's no different than a group of guys who love 1975 mini commons and bid some up to 1k in heated competition. It's a small subset but they are passionate and active, and there's nothin wrong with that.

Lolol

looking at VCP, this card (cert#) sold twice:

9/30/09 for $13,200 at a Huggins and Scott auction
8/28/11 for $8,900 on ebay

the flip and bar code look the same as this image (link #1) as best I can tell. the bar code scans correctly for the two listed with this cert on VCP. kept trying the image on ebay for this auction but still can't get it to read the cert#. i'm not sure if it is the clarity of the scan or a bad flip.

Over the short term a few guys or even one guy can drive up the price of anything, but over the long term -- especially if the buyers become sellers -- I am skeptical. So I would place more faith in stable historical prices than recent aberrations, myself. But that's just me -- a guy who can't see paying 2x for a card no matter what the eye appeal.

Not 2x usually but how about 1.25x to 1.35x ?

I think we go from seeing examples of cards that don't have good eye appeal selling for 50%-75% of a decent one, so that swing over on a great one, isn't unrealistic to me.

Moral of this thread: when you keep needing to publicly convince yourself that you didn't wildly overpay for a card you love -- you've wildly overpaid for a card you love. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing unless you now can't pay for food or shelter.

nice young!!

ok, ok, I overpay all of the time. As long as it's to a legitimate bidder then so be it. I have rarely been unhappy about having to overpay for something I really want. And yes, acting responsibly is important. Living card to card isn't that bad though. :)

ps...nice card, Peter.

Same seller and cert #, DIFFERENT flips and cards (52 Topps Mantle)
 

Good catch.

I naturally lean corners/image over centering (been that way for 20+ years and feel no urge to change)... but in general to me- cards, sets, different images and examples are way too varied to lock into any one or even two pre-established traits before seeing them. I always thought I was weird when I had trouble giving simple answers to the "what's your type?" question about girls. Then as I got older I realized that until I had met and talked to each one, it didn't matter what color her hair or eyes were if all the individual pieces fit together well. Often times you surprise yourself and that can be the most fun! This is exactly how I feel about cards, and several strong traits can almost always outweigh one negative IMO (key being my "O", so not trying to sway anyone). Put more simply- if it looks good to me when I see it, I like it.

From what I read, my version of "eye appeal" may not align with the majority here (maybe a good poll question?), and my OC cards may be dinged if I were to auction them off.. but I like them and I'm not planning to sell them. Here's a few favs...