Depressing
 

It's been mentioned in the past that the hobby is going the direction of newer players, and the pre-war stuff may end up having the bottom fall out. While I don't completely agree with that statement, I just decided to search "PSA" on Ebay and sort by highest price first to see what's out there. Plenty of cards in the deep 6-digit range ($500k Thomas the Train card was entertaining). But, almost no pre-war anywhere near the top. Sure, people can ask whatever they want and it's no indication of value. But, even when you filter by sold cards, there are still plenty of people paying $50-100k for cards produced in the past 20 years. I won't tell folks what to spend their money on and it's obviously reflective of supply and demand. It still has me shaking my head. $50k for a Stanton refractor or$120k for a Lebron jersey card?

On a positive note, maybe this eventually drops the price of mid-grade 33' Goudey Ruths and T206 Cobbs to my price range.

This!!

I am hoping that I don't lose the entire value of my collection but I am a collector first and foremost. I am already dreading what it will cost me as I continue to move back years and begin collecting pre-war in the next few years. A price break on the sets I hope to collect will do wonders in the household!

Go check prices realized on a Heritage auction. You'll feel better. :)

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

Agreed. Many people colecting Trout, Judge et.al. today will move to Mantle, Ryan, Koufax and then to prewar. I'm sure plenty of us did the same thing. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of people collecting 50's and 60's PSA registry items move to prewar stuff eventually too.

The Pre War Pool is still to deep for me.... Luckily tho, I find that the 50's just seem to scratch an itch for me......

Correct. Searching by highest price on eBay and extrapolating out that people are more willing to spend huge cash on new cards is at least somewhat faulty because so much of the really top-level pre-war stuff doesn't get sold on eBay; it gets sold at places like REA, Heritage, Goldin.

How many Lebron jersey cards or Stanton refractors do you suppose will be up for auction at REA this year?

Prewar seems very strong to me.

How many if those “new” cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

Are Judge's cards still getting crazy high prices like they once were last year?

I bought up every Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor card I could find. Some were as much as a whopping $20. If those guys were coming into the league today, their 1/1 autos would sell for multiple thousands off the bat. Imagine what a 1/1 canseco rookie auto would sell for today if he had come into the league in 2015 and had those dominant seasons he had. And think of the drop on that card once Canseco lost his mojo. They can't all be Mike Trout...that's why he's special. I don't collect new stuff, but some members on the board whom I respect do. They are educated guys who enjoy rooting on the players whose cards they own. There is fun in that, and that's what collecting is all about. Any way you look at it, it's good that people come into the hobby and follow baseball.

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

Didn't a Strasburg 1/1 sell on eBay for around a million bucks a few years ago? Heck of an investment for a guy who is 84-45 with a career era over 3.

While I completely agree with the point quoted above, I'd respectfully hang a lantern on using the term "shiny crap," especially if one doesn't want to come off like a "pre-war snob" and unnecessarily offend a whole cross-section of their fellow baseball card enthusiasts.

I do agree an eBay search is not the ideal method of assessing the PreWar space, considering the likes of REA, Heritage, etc. are where so many great pieces in the space are routinely bought/sold.

I confess to buying the occasional shiny thing. My new Trout RC lol, very sparkly in hand.

What a superb ballplayer. And a very cool-looking card to represent him in your collection, Peter. The game is so damn hard, and Trout makes it look so easy.

And they are all dead.:eek:

To some who buy cards of modern players, the endeavor is not about potential value one way or the other. At its purest, back in boyhood, I'd venture collecting grew from a fondness and rooting for a specific player or team, not future monetary considerations.

He and Harper (IMO the other great talent of this generation, although as yet not fully realized) are sort of yin and yang, although for all his bad ass veneer Harper is a very hard-working and fundamentally solid player.

Agreed. I watched Harper's game today and he flashed a bunt to the left side, which I really liked.

I get as much enjoyment from looking at the one Harper card I have as I do from looking at my CJ Cobb or my 1986 Dwight Gooden Record Breaker. It takes such enormous talent just to get drafted, let alone put up an elite MLB season— or a whole HOF-level career. Different levels of achievement, for sure, yet huge respect for each one. Heck, trying to hit consistent line drives off a fast machine in a cage is hard enough, LOL!

Target
 

Hi I went to target last week ,and once in a while I like buying blasters ,Well got $200 worth ,total of $40 in cards 😳😳😳. think I better buy a t206 next time , octavio

Besides prewar i collect modern joey votto cards and i believe he is one of the few generational talents in baseball today. When got back into the hobby after a 10-12 year hideous i started with modern blaster boxes at my local supermarket and then got into prewar after a couple years of collecting modern cards.

My condolences on your hideous hiatus.

Is that what causes a hiatal hernia?

They are great great talents, but we live in very different times today. Millions of men my age cherish Mickey Mantle (shout out to Billy Crystal of course) and hence the demand for his cards. Lots of people appreciate Harper and Votto and Trout but I think it's a different time and place. I don't see the unabashed affection. Without getting political at all, look how differently people people viewed FDR and John Kennedy than how politicians are viewed today.

The crazy prices realized on newish cards are plain and simple a financial roll of the dice. A spin of the roulette wheel. Yes, that happens in pre-war of course, but some people want a Ty Cobb card because they actually want a Ty Cobb card.

I see tons of affection from boys and men today toward their collected players. I see it firsthand in our little leagues and in my own household. When we buy a Brett Gardner or when I shell out for a major Judge card, I am doing so because I actually want it for my collection.

These kids will grow up to love Trout the same way a certain generation now loves Mantle. I don't see any change. Baseball, Ray....

While I don't collect modern, I can understand this sentiment completely. I can imagine that if you took your son to a Reds game and Joey Votto winked at your boy on the on-deck circle and then cracked 2 HRs, you'd have more allegiance for him that you would any Mantle, Williams, or Ruth (all flawed characters in their own right.)

When it comes to the modern/vintage debate, I try to separate the players from the cards. While I think modern players can spark passion, I personally, do not appreciate the cards. If I love Mike Trout, for example, which of his 100 rookie cards do I pursue? Should I go after the "Cognac Diamond Anniversary" edition or maybe the "Super Refractor with Bedazzled Edges 1/1" edition that looks like it was designed by an 8th grade girl? Having grown up in the 80s when there was just one base card of a rookie (yes, way overproduced), I am used to simplicity. I just can't wrap my head around the incredibly complex system of manufactured rarity that drives the modern market.

Don't get me wrong. I'm glad the modern market exists even if I don't participate in it. I would never begrudge anyone who does. It's just not for me, and that's a function of the cards, not the players.

There are still base cards, and they're an easy way to avoid all the complexity of the 57 varieties of refractors and sparkles and chromes etc. if those are not your speed.

Yes, I could see myself owning a card like that someday if it's available at a fair price.

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

Exorbitant is different for each person. I am someone buying modern (in addition to Pre and Post war) and I can tell you when “I get hit with the news” you seem to see in your crystal ball, I won’t care what my modern is worth— I am collecting.

All collecting is good collecting. I am a big advocate of youngsters doing anything with collecting cards. I also think a lot of them will gravitate to older cards. I don't know how many people NEVER collected cards as a kid, collect them as an adult? I am sure there are a few but not a ton. So to keep our collecting going we need to be supportive of their gambling/card collecting. I never collected anything past about 1972 as a youngster opening packs and came back to vintage as an adult, going backwards to Pre-War. Whatever floats your boat. The only small drawback is that some kids will spend and lose way too much on their collecting/gambling and that is never good (except for the card companies I guess.)

I only collect pre-1970 but I also do not begrudge collectors of modern issue. What bothers me (aside from ALL reprints), is the death of the wax pack. Upper Deck, with the advent of their foil tamper proof package, essentially started the ball rolling to price the hobby out of the hands of the kids.

The wax, the gum, the smell, ahhhh.

Nice.

Agreed many collectors who collect the newer cards will end up collecting prewar. Inspired by this thred, I went out and bought ten sets of Mike Trouts pre rookie minor league team sets (population 2000). How can you go wrong with a great player who is great for the game!

Although I collect PRIMARILY Nolan Ryan, Mantle, Williams and 1950's cards, I do have a decent collection of Trout, Harper, Kershaw and Tom Brady.

Driving home from Atlantic City one day I looked up the nearest card shop and made a detour. Small little shop and a few nice ladies running it. They probably had 5 display cases of nothing but Trout cards. And boxes and boxes besides the cases. Obviously he is a Jersey boy. I’d estimate they had about 20,000 shiny Trout cards. Many were $1. That’s why his card will never have any real value other than the one off really rare card.

Your numbers are way off... it was $16,000. But your point is still valid. Very valid.

At the time, Strasburg had yet to play a single game in the majors!

Here's a history of the Strasburg card: link. Fascinating in-depth look at a card that's less than 10 years old.

https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/803/41...a624406d5f.jpg

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller


"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can’t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

I agree with your post. I have not kept up with the new products, but I have to wonder about the expectations of a person paying thousands of dollars for a new card.

My expectation, when I pay thousands for a new card, is that I will enjoy my new card.

That expectation is met each and every time.

It's the same expectation I have when I buy a card from 1914, 1952, or 1975.

This thing happens in the Pre and Post War space all the time, as well. Get a sale recorded in the pricing history, or parroted by a TPGs twitter account...and voila.

Matty, we get that you collect for the sheer purity, love and enjoyment of the hobby. You can afford it, and could care less if Aaron Judge (or whoever) becomes a bust and you lost several thousands on their cards. But I think you are in the minority there. Just because you are an intelligent collector with means, it doesn't follow that many others aren't risking big bucks chasing the promise of the next Mike Trout. We all got burned in the 80's, but that was CHUMP CHANGE compared to the money being spent on speculative prospects like Strasbourg. I think that is the greater point of this thread. But as I mentioned in a previous post, I think any form of collecting cards is good for our hobby, and I'm all for it.
I will also echo Sam's sentiment from a previous post in that I would love to buy the cards of modern players, but just hate that each guy has 1,000 rookies IN DIFFERING YEARS. There are too many to choose from. I don't want to just buy his 472nd "best" rookie, but I also don't want to spend 5-figures on one of his top 5 rookies. I will spend it on Ruth or Cobb because the cards are awesome and their status as immortals is already secured.

The mania surrounding the Otani autographs in the new Topps Heritage set is instructive. A ton of mania out of the box to get these cards and get on eBay. People who were asking $75,000 a month ago. If someone paid that they are a sorry sorry guy, because they are now a few thousand last time I checked. This is just people buying a lottery ticket.
Manufactured scarcity. Signing in different ink colors and then trying to say a certain color is more valuable. Cmon. That’s nuts.

No one paid 75k or anywhere near that for his Red Ink Heritage cards. So trying to cite the crazy high ask in an attempt to slight that sector of the hobby is a bit specious. They have been changing hands in the 3-6k zone.

In terms of saying the difference between a Red Ink and Blue Ink auto is subtle and thus "nuts," I could see drawing a parallel to there being a massive premium to a card because it has a different advertising back— yet an identical front— to a much cheaper card. Some might call that "nuts."

Or a card that displays infinitesimal (if any) improvements over another card in a higher graded flip selling for exponentially more than a nearly identical (or better looking) card in the next flip down.

Or the cost of a rare common one needs to complete a set.

The salient point being that there are a lot of aspects to the hobby that different people might raise an eyebrow to— doesn't make any collector "nuts." And it doesn't make whatever they do with their money worthy of a supercilious treatment.

I sure wouldn't mind a woman gazing at me the way that Momma is ogling Trout...but, alas, I'm retired from THAT too...never could hit a curve anyway.



:rolleyes:

In all fairness the PreWar "rookie" space is not as cut and dry as you make it seem, relative to modern. Look at the debate that swirls around Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth and what their "rookie" card is. When I first ventured into PreWar I found it disorganized, relative to what I saw as the direct, clear-cut Post War space. I took the time to wade in and learn, from reading and fellow collectors, and was soon able to select cards I wanted. I am sure anyone could do the same for modern, if they so choose. I have far too much fun watching baseball and rooting for certain players to abstain from collecting the cards of theirs which I find awesome, just because they may not achieve immortal status. Their status is already secured with me, based on the fun I have in the present watching, rooting, and collecting. That is why, when I look at my cards, I smile at the Gooden, Strawberry, Mattingly, and Bo Jacksons the same way I smile at the Ruths and Cobbs.

I must say I agree with much of this. I do not think you can compare a rare backed tobacco or Carmel card that was produced in small numbers because of supply and demand in that era to manufactured errors and rarities of the modern day. Drum, uzit, kotton, virginia extra...smaller niche brands likley ordered and distributed many fewer cards in the first place place...therefore fewer survive and they are rare. Brown old mills, lennox, red crofts candy... perhaps these occurred as sample runs with whatever ink was available who knows. Today they are rare and desirable.

Compare this to a bunch of executives sitting in a board meeting deciding they are going to “create” this variation or that variation. Smart yes! But in my opinion comparing these to vintage is apples to oranges.

I have not collected modern since 1991 and have made no effort to follow... there are just too many issues...and way too many cards that will remain in new condition.

What can I say the hobby has changed and I have not changed with it. Hopefully these manufactured rarities will maintain their desirability more than their beanie baby counterpart over time.

From the standpoint of manufacturing and intent at inception, that is correct. Yet one could compare an ink color difference to a back difference in terms of how one could find those differences between the cards rather insignificant, relative to the prices.

I’ll give u that.😋

But Matty, would you be smiling at Gooden and Strawberry and Mattingly if you had dropped 15k on them during their heyday when they were looking like sure-fire hall of famers? You can smile at the Bo Jackson that you saved up your allowance to buy for a whopping $20. It's a nice memory. But that isn't the case today.

+1
 

Would not of been able to say it better !!

Ok. I get that. I use that rational when I purchase a pre World War II card. I fully understand the price fluctuations that can happen in the hobby. But if you paid let’s say $1,000 for a newer card and the value drops precipitously in the following years after the purchase, will you be enthusiastic about spending that type of money on a newer card in the future? Personally I would not.

I will be in that exact 15k analogy/boat with my Aaron Judge collection. Will definitely smile at the cards no matter what they are worth down the line. I could sell them at a profit today, but that is not why I collect them. With all baseball cards, I go in thinking of them as sheer expenditures/luxury goods bought for pleasure. If I want to swap some out to buy others down the line and can sell some for profit or breakeven or anything at all, sure that is always nice and optimum, but never the expectation or desire going in. Basically, I walk into Vegas expecting to lose the whole wad.

If I am enthusiastic about the player, want him represented in my collection, want the specific card, and can afford the pricetag, I would be fine pulling the trigger again if another modern card I bought lost its value.

There are certainly prospectors and flippers who are into modern solely for a sort of "day trading," if you will. They time their buying and selling with the ebb and flow of achievement/hype/excitement/expectations around a player. In contrast I just collect modern guys I like. It does strike me as odd, the way a prospect's toughest cards will sometimes be priced as if he has already achieved Ruthian status in MLB. But if a seller can get that price, then more power to him. I have seen prices on modern cards for unproven players that dwarf the price of a nice Mantle or other elite HOFer. I don't agree with it, personally, but not my place to say other than in the holstering of my wallet. But I holster it for some PreWar or PostWar cards that are considered amazing and valuable. Just personal preference, end of day.

There was certainly a lot of hi-jinks and manipulation in the old days. Short prints and the like. But today it's like the only hook to generate sales are gimmicks, lottery tickets. It's like Willie Wonka and the golden ticket.

By the way, I love the new Topps Heritage cards. Bought two boxes and had a blast opening them.

I might grab 1-2 boxes at Xmas time of the shiny new stuff. Heck, I don't even know who is hot or not most times, just the fun of ripping something I guess.
That's why I join in at secret santa time, as its more of a surprise than anything.
A few yrs ago I opened one from SS, and had a retro 1957 RC Bart Starr red ink auto
It then makes me ponder IF there be a retro CJ, T206 , 48/9 Leaf or 33 Goudey cards?? or has it been done.

This makes me chuckle a little bit.
 

I have been collecting since 1979 when I was 7 years old. I have been hearing this same story about how all the money is the new guys yet the older cards keep going up and the newer stuff mostly goes down with some obvious exceptions. I’ll continue to bet on older higher quality material. I’ve heard this song and dance countless times the last 39 years.

What makes most collectibles rare is the fact that while they were around few if any people ever thought about collecting them for the long term. When the Gehrig rookie Exhibits came out in 1925, doubt any kid was walking around thinking "I want to preserve one of these because it will be worth a lot of money someday." Compare that with what's going on with Otani or Trout cards. People are hoarding them.

Same with autos Steve. Thurman Munson's auto is worth more than Ted Williams' or Mickey Mantle's. Why? Because it is far more rare. So what is the outlook on autos of a guy whose been sitting at a table signing stacks of cards for Topps or Pannini since he was 17 years old? I would bet that there are already several thousands more mike Trout autos (at age 26) out there than Thurman Munson autos (who died at age 32). Certainly on baseball cards. I will admit that I have no numbers to back up that theory, but I would bet I'm right.

Totally agree. With the exception of an untimely death or a guy who has a real issue with signing for some odd reason, modern era autographs are valuelesss in my opinion. Might give you a nice warm feeling to look at but not an asset to sell to anyone.

Ps. Want a Pete Rose? He’s sitting at a store in Vegas all day long waiting for someone to walk in and say hello.

Mantle signed a ton; certain auto’d cards of his are worth quite a bit. The people who own the supers and gold auto XRCs of the likes of Trout and any other future longterm stars are certainly holding assets. To try and lump all auto’d modern cards together is a bit supercilious. Just enjoy whatever you collect without looking down at other collectors and their choices. And if you’re going to insist on taking such pot shots, please consider augmenting/tempering the opinion you’re so quick to type with knowledge and experience in the area you are slighting.

I've been enjoying your comments on this thread. Keep 'em up! It's so elitist to look at pre-war/vintage as a higher standard of collecting that newer collectors should attain to. I really enjoy buying $40-50 boxes, opening them, then give the Orioles to my son and sell the rest. It's an enjoyment that pre-war can't provide for me. In my experience, modern collectors are very enthusiastic regarding vintage cards. Wish they were afforded the same respect.

Thinking about grabbing this one for the investment portfolio.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARER-THAN-...4bba%7Ciid%3A1

Matty, lobbing potshots was not my goal. I expressed my opinion. Maybe it was right and maybe it was wrong. Just an opinion. Wasn't attacking anyone personally or what they want to collect. If it's wrong or stupid, people can call me on it. I thought that the whole idea of this board was to share information and different views.

+ 1. Good for you Matty

You better nab that puppy. They don't get much more rare/hyped. I mean the seller says "RARER THAN PSA 10 OHTANI OR JUDGE ROOKIE." How could you go wrong?
[/B]

Phenomenal upside on that one!

Modern can be fun. I've opened four boxes of Heritage this year because I love the design and enjoy the rips.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...0Bellinger.jpg

OK, one was hobby and three were WalMart but still. I'm enjoying assembling a base set from scratch, trading with friends to fill in gaps, etc. I don't really care about the lotto results; if I pull a good insert I'd probably just trade it away. I've only ever pulled one good insert:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...size/Jeter.jpg

I probably spent $1K on cards that year, so I won't make a dime on it, ever. But I had a hell of a lot of fun busting all the packs that year.

There is definitely a modern autograph market. Just depends on the price. I wouldn't pay $3K for an Ohtani signed card but that's just because I won't pay that for nearly any signed card, but I'd definitely buy and have bought modern signed cards of players I admire:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...%20Kershaw.jpg

One of my want list items for the National is an Ichiro signed card. The thrill of owning something that a baseball god signed is there regardless of whether it was signed in 1910 or 2010.

I paid $0.50 for this Bud Selig:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...size/Selig.jpg

probably overpaid...

Agreed. I wouldn't want anything from "Bud Light" except to burn it.

Corners do look mighty sharp...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Good plan. An old guy told me a long time ago to buy what you like. Then when it isn't worth anything at least you will like it.

+1 in general. The only trouble will arise when that $50K Stanton refractor becomes a $500.00 refractor, which is the likely, long-term result when the demand boosting it to that level is speculative and transient in nature, and disappears with time. Two definitions of insanity: (1) doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result; and (2) buying a Stanton refractor for $50K.

Best to all,

Larry

+1 again, pretty much. Only it's not yet certain that even Mike Trout can continue to be Mike Trout. The home stretch isn't even in sight yet. The time to buy him, if he continues on his obvious very strong HOF path, will be in his mid-thirties' downslide, when the speculative and transient demand has vanished, and the newest latest and greatest phenom has come along. A PSA 8 NNOF Frank Thomas could have been had for approximately $500-$600 circa 2008 or so.

Highest regards, Orly,

Larry

Hi, Sam. From a sheer numbers standpoint, the many, many, many different "rookie" cards cannot do anything but cause a fragmentation of demand in the future. That means, of course, great difficulty in achieving any significant appreciation in value of any given example.

Best always,

Larry

Truly a sad situation, IMHO. Shades of tuilipmania!

Regards,

Larry

Very well stated, as usual, Orly. It brings to mind the thought that just over 1% of the players who ever played major league baseball actually made the HOF. Even Trout is not yet anywhere near a sure thing. This game is essentially one for vigorous young men in their twenties, and for a small few, their early thirties, by and large. Check out Bill James' studies on player performance versus age. By age 35, even the few good enough to still play at a major league level are then producing at a rate of only about 65% of their peak, and it's downhill from there for almost all. The last time Willie Mays was really Willie Mays was 1966, when he was 35 years old. Aaron appeared to play at a higher level longer, but the Fulton County "Launching Pad" masked a lot of his decline--check his home/road splits after the Braves moved to Atlanta. I enjoy watching Trout, because he's the closest thing I have seen to Mickey Mantle since I have been a baseball fanatic in the very early sixties, but sorry, he's only really reached second base, and is still far from home.

Best to you,

Larry