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-   -   A Troubling Hobby Developement (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=81920)

Archive 08-10-2006 08:48 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The past several days have brought to light a number of disturbing events in the vintage card hobby. First and foremost, the embarrassing fiasco with the bogus T206 Wagner will showcase many of the seedier aspects of the baseball card hobby. On a related thread, respected hobby veteran Brian Goldner discussed some graded cards he purchased that were clearly tampered with. Steve Verkman, who has handled his share of vintage cards, stated that many of the higher grade slabbed cards have been altered and missed the scrutiny of the authenticaters. Likewise, although I must leave the details confidential, I was involved in a large deal that fell through because it was purported that some very valuable high grade cards were no good even though they were all encapsulated. As cards become more expensive, there is a greater incentive to alter and counterfeit them in ever more sophisticated and difficult to detect ways. How is the hobby prepared to deal with these very dangerous issues?

Archive 08-10-2006 08:52 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>peter ullman</b><p>apparently...it's not! The hobby needs it's core of respected experts...like yourself Barry to form some type of venture to adress this need! I'm sure most of us on this board with expertise in vintage cards would happily give up our day jobs to handle cards all day...I know I would!<br /><br />pete in mn

Archive 08-10-2006 08:56 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p>I think the numerical grading of cards has become a monster and compels people to try to alter cards. There's just too much money at stake for many to resist the temptation. All I want from an authenticator is to slab the card and let me know that it's authentic and not altered and I'll decide if I like the card's presentation. Eventually a service to cater to folks like me will be created and a lot of the pressure put on people to stretch and trim vg-ex cards into ex-nmt cards will evaporate. At least I hope. <br /><br />--Chad

Archive 08-10-2006 08:59 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>peter ullman</b><p>Good point Chad...I totally agree!<br /><br />pete in mn

Archive 08-10-2006 09:02 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Seth B.</b><p>Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I sort of think it will take care of itself. Didn't this happen right before the bubble burst in the 90's as well? I mean, follow this equation: as sportscards get ever more expensive, people start counterfeiting more frequently and deviously. Then, people with a lot of money (who are helping to drive up prices on cards) but not a lot of expertise start getting burned more and more often and eventually get scared away. When they leave, the inflation of card prices slows or even drops, and there's less incentive to counterfeit or scam as there's less money involved and most people still left are the die-hards with enough know-how to spot a fake. <br />It's cyclic, I think. The best thing to do is to educate yourself, buy the card not the plastic, and use a fair measure of good sense.

Archive 08-10-2006 09:04 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>They have to be vigilant in creating tamper-proof slabs, and must be careful in their authenticating of cards.<br /><br />I am sure some will slip through and get graded... but hopefully that percentage will be very low... low enough to discourage thieves who make fakes.<br /><br />Quite honestly -- anything that puts a shadow on authenticity only makes hobby participants run as fast as they can to the authentication companies. Sorry to the 'anti-slab' hobbyists out there... but this will strengthen the need for slabbing.<br /><br />

Archive 08-10-2006 09:06 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p>But how many unaltered cards will there be left?<br /><br />I know, a lot still, but it troubles me how many cards are getting butchered and, once butchered, they can't be fixed even after a market correction. And even more, it pisses me off how many vintage baseball guides are getting shredded so their pictures can be sold as "mint cards." <br /><br />--Chad<br /><br />I completely agree that slabbing and authenticating are needed. I just don't like the numerical grading which I think is a false standard, mostly. So, I'm not anti-slab, just anti-ranking, I guess.

Archive 08-10-2006 09:08 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Jim Manos</b><p>For thoughs of you that know me and have spoken to me in deepth. That is exactly why I don't collect cards. I love the hobby and buy and sell cards. But the BS that goes in to some of the grading and what people do and get graded is incredible. There is alot of things people can do with paper now and the graders cannot pick it up. I have numerous story's that would make your toe's curl. As a equity and currency anaylst we are in about March 31st of 2000 in this hobby as far as prices and value's are concerned. Super post again..

Archive 08-10-2006 09:16 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>This is precisely the reason why I COLLECT cards and don't INVEST in them. The only "investment" I make in baseball cards is an emotional one; shelling out money requires some degree of available funds, but I try and do it only with disposable income or with money I generate from the sale of other cards.<br /><br />I "invest" in more traditional places, with funds that I would like to see grow over time.<br /><br />It's nice to know that today, if I wanted to recoup some of the money I've put into my collection, I could. But if the bottom fell out of the hobby tomorrow, I would still have the same thing I have today - a collection of baseball cards. And with prices even lower, I'd be able to buy even more!<br /><br />-Al

Archive 08-10-2006 09:17 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Brian</b><p>At least w/ PSA, SGC and mostly with GAI, an EX card will not have a nail or bullett hole...<br /><br />As long as your not last to the party, its ok. Once its in a holder, its a commodity. I didn't see alot of NearMint prewar in the 80s, but I see alot now. Hmmmm

Archive 08-10-2006 09:23 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Jim Manos</b><p>If the bottom falls out I would still buy and enjoy the hobby... Some people may not be able to take a big hit if the card market bottomed out. Many people hate the tradition markets ie... after the dot booms... and have put $ in untraditional areas like cards, art work, cars, etc... I put alot of $ in the card market in that time frame and just could not experience another hammer blow, so jumped ship. Different strokes for different folk's.

Archive 08-10-2006 09:23 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Judge Dred (Fred)</b><p>It's just our society... everyone wants PERFECT things... many people will stoop pretty low to make sure they get those pretty perfect things...<br /><br />Lasers can be used to finely trim paper. Could you imagine using that technology to cut minute pieces of imperfections down to create the ultimate edges and corners for a card. <br /><br />It's like plastic surgery... does any guy here really abhor a nice altered rack? Sorry to use such a poor analogy but it kind of fits.<br /><br />As stated, what does it mean for the hobby? I hate to bring this up, yet again, but we need to look no further than the grading provided for the Harris Collection of T206 cards. Does anyone want to debate whether or not trimmed cards from that set were encapsulated? I'm not saying that it was knowingly done, nor am I saying it wasn't. Maybe, pretty soon people will cherish the beaters because they represent what is "real" about the hobby... could you imagine people cracking cards out of 8 holders so that they can trash them to have that "worn" look... ok, it's early and I should remove the bottles from my office before someone finds them and turns me in for taking an early lunch break...

Archive 08-10-2006 09:24 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Seth B.</b><p>Chad- you're right, and that's too bad, but that's why I collect cards in the VG and that's why they call it "Collector's Grade." I've taught myself enough to spot a fake, but maybe not enough to spot rolling, trimming, soaking, smoking, steaming, and dry-cleaning. And even if you are an expert, when most of the business is done on e-bay, there's no way you can tell everything in a scan of a card. So, I collect VG cards, cards I'll be happy to have when prices drop and I can buy even more VG cards!

Archive 08-10-2006 09:31 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p>I collect vg, too, but mostly that's a matter of affordabilty for me. I really do like things that look old, too. Steel toys look cooler than the plastic stuff I grew up with. Vintage refrigerators and toasters and fans look better to me than the new stuff. I'm not a person who thinks the past is always better than the present--quite the opposite, actually--but things seemed to be built with more care way back when. The lithography of vintage cards or the photographic cards of a lot of vintage Cuban sets knock the socks off the stuff produced now. But I'm veering from the topic of this thread, so I'll stop.<br /><br />--Chad

Archive 08-10-2006 09:42 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Rhys</b><p>This is EXACTLY why other hobbies have organized and have self policing aspects of the organization. Antique collectors societies exist for almost every other hobby in the world except Sports Collectibles. You pay a small due and have rights and responsibilities as a member. Dealers and collectors who engage in shady acts will loose their membership and the reasons for such can be known throughout the organization. Those without a membership are looked at with a crooked eye (dealers anyways) sort of like how people react to private auctions on ebay. It will not solve all the problems in the hobby, but it certainly would solve some of them. I think my fathers dues every year as a member of the TCA (Train collectors Association) were like $15 annually but for that cost you also got discounts for shows and a newsletter etc. My brother Rhett and I grew up around it so it seems natural, and in most other hobbies, it works pretty well. It probably will not happen in Sports Collectibles, but it should.

Archive 08-10-2006 09:46 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Someone mentioned that many of these card altering shenanigans were taking place in the 1990's, and that was certainly true. The response was the advent of the grading services, which were formed not only to grade but to detect these alterations. Now it is coming to light with greater frequency that altered cards are getting encapsulated anyway. What's the defense to that? Do cards that were graded five years ago have to be resubmitted to be looked at with ever greater scrutiny? I don't know the answer, but it is a serious concern. With regard to Rhys's post, what can the network54 community do to help clean up parts of the hobby that need policing? We are a pretty powerful and educated group, and there must be something a large field of experts can do similar to what Rhys suggested.

Archive 08-10-2006 09:52 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Peter_Spaeth</b><p>None of this is news, is it? Isn't one of the reasons there was a market for PSA in the first place that altering cards had become rampant in the late 80s and early 90s? Surely since the first card PSA graded, there has been speculation, or maybe even proof, that cards that had been altered in ways generally deemed unacceptable were being graded by grading services. I think in answer to Barry's question, it's just an inevitable fact of life, and each of us who collects will have a different response, ranging from indifference to buying lower grade cards to refining choice of grading services to changing personal views on what sorts of alterations are acceptable, and so on. I don't think it's going to destroy vintage card collecting though; we are all too addicted, among other things.

Archive 08-10-2006 09:56 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>First of all great post, Barry. I think it was Barry Halper that tried to start a National Collectors Club (or something like that) back in the early 80's. Not sure if it ever got off the ground but the mention of a society for vintage baseball card collectors is not new. This post got me thinking about my collection so I stumbled over to it and see that my main collecting grade is in the SGC30-SGC50 area's, with only a few higher. Personally I like both high grade and mid grade (and a few lower) but my resources, and maybe in the long run "dumb luck" has me collecting "collector" grade. I think there is too much depth in the vintage card market for there to be a Black Monday of sorts. Too many collectors/investors to buy anything that looks like a good or great buy. I have to admit if the market totally crashed and my cards were worth nothing that it would hurt financially. I would still have the great little gems to enjoy though.....BTW, anyone that doesn't think a lot, if not most, very high end, 90-100 year old cards are untampered with, is a little bit naive...imo...best regards

Archive 08-10-2006 10:02 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>Some of the problems can be addressed by simply having more knowledgable and experienced graders. The fact that the altered cards that Barry refers to ultimately came to light means that to at least some degree the problem is unqualified graders.<br /><br />I love Chad's suggestion that the role of the grading company should be merely to opine whether the card has been altered. Because in today's world there is no problem getting prospective buyers/bidders quality images of cards, there is arguably no need to assign a numerical grade in order to describe the card's condition.<br /><br />Another idea which I have espoused for some time is for a card to be assigned a grade with a margin of error attached to it, analogous to how political polling is done. I think we all recognize that there is a degree of subjectivity to grading; one person's 8 could easily be another person's 7. Suppose for example PSA went to half grades (e.g., a card could be slabbed as a 7.5) and recognized that there is a margin of error of +/- .5 to any grade. Under the system I am proposing, a 7.0 would be slabbed as a 6.5-7.5; a 7.5 would come back as a 7.0-8.0. The beauty of this method is that it recognizes that, due to the margin-of-error factor, some 7.0s are in fact better than some 7.5s and as good as some 8s. While I have no illusions that such a system will eliminate the incentive to alter cards, perhaps to some degree it will reduce the ridiculous difference in value between cards one grade apart and thereby reduce the degree of tampering.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:18 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Corey- interesting and sensible idea, but would it be embraced by the collecting public? People like precision, especially at the high end.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:42 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barry arnold</b><p>very insightful post Barry.<br /><br />like many of you i have found myself happier collecting in the vg range. i find that they have that cherished old look<br />and feel and somehow removed most of my old perfectionism and earlier preoccupation with higher grades. I find myself<br />absolutely enjoying them more and more. Granted, i have<br />always been a collector and not an investor with the cards, so my highest grades were never more than 70 or 80 and those were rare. <br />This has worked well for me. I'm not saying it should be universal.<br />What has become most pleasing for me to see is the great collegiality and consequent top drawer scholarship which is taking place on this board as we continue to find ways to make this hobby as sound and exciting and ethical as possible even while barbarians try and tear it apart with their counterfeitings and the like. Alaric, a leader of the barbarians near the fall of Rome, was approached by one of the Roman soldiers who said proudly,even arrogantly, to Alaric that Alaric and his following had best run quickly for the Roman army was vast and extremely large. Alaric with head cocked slightly and eyes keenly glaring responds<br />simply 'the more the wheat, the easier the scythe.'<br /><br />As a small and wise board, always in conversation and attuned to the signs of the times, we should continue to be safe from the scythe.<br /><br />best,<br /><br />barry

Archive 08-10-2006 10:43 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>steve f</b><p> I like Chads' ideas... Although I cringe at the thought of resubmitting our graded cards, I would be pleased just knowing the things were "AUT" with a qualifier of Altered (if need be). Of course, for sellers, far more work would be needed in close-up scanning and answering condition inquiries.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:45 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Peter Spaeth</b><p>I agree with Barry that Corey's idea, however sensible, will not catch on. Present grading systems are already deeply entrenched, especially with set registries etc., and if anything there may be a movement towards more false precision (.5s) than away from it. As for better graders, that would be great, but (assuming for argument's sake) some people here would be better than some of the present graders, how many of you are going to give up your day jobs to go grade cards all day? I am guessing the major grading services train their graders as well as they know how.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:47 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Leon wrote: "BTW, anyone that doesn't think a lot, if not most, very high end, 90-100 year old cards are untampered with, is a little bit naive...imo...best regards"<br /><br />I do think a lot of high grade pre-WW1 cards are tampered with. However, I did not think it was most. I define most as "a good majority, greater than 70%". I'm not sure if Leon was thinking along those lines, but his statement did surprise me, maybe he is using a different definition. Does everyone think this also? Maybe I am a bit naive. That's why I'd like to hear what others have to say on percentages.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:50 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p>If we took numerical grades off the cards, then, yeah, the seller would have to supply better scans, be more attentive to questions and make sure they kept their reputation in the highest regard. Of course, I think that should be happening already. I bring ebay up because, what I'd like to see them do as a way of establishing seller reputations, is show me only the feedback the seller has for the category I'm shopping in. I only want to know how buyers of baseball cards feel about a seller, not what buyers of the seller's bulk packaged swizzle sticks think. I know they won't, but it doesn't hurt to air this stuff out. Maybe somebody from Google is lurking around here. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />--Chad

Archive 08-10-2006 10:54 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Jim Manos</b><p>Regardsless if Leon meant 70% I think without question pressing, soaking etc.. to get that high grade card is being done to acheive the better grade ie... 7,8,amd 9's no question. Exception's to the rule's apply. But I strongly agree with 70% or more..I wouldn't take the risk, but someone knowing what there doing could cash in easy... My 2 cents.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:57 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Peter Spaeth</b><p>If "alterations" include soaking that many people find acceptable (without more), then I think the 70 percent for NM and better is very likely accurate.

Archive 08-10-2006 10:58 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Griffin's</b><p>I don't think it's limited to high end cards. I've seen and heard of a lot of 1's and 2's getting cleaned up and becoming 4's and 5's (or 50's and 60's if you prefer). With the surge in prices the motivation is there, and the skills of those doing the altering have exceeded the ability of those doing to the grading to detect it.

Archive 08-10-2006 11:12 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Chad- what you are suggesting is exactly how I conducted my business in the 1980's and 1990's. I was forced to grade my cards as accurately as possible because that was the only way I could keep my customers coming back. I'm sure I made some mistakes but I took alot of pride in learning how to be precise. Today, because all the cards I sell are graded by a third party service, I'm not embarrassed to admit I barely look at them and if they are misgraded or altered I probably wouldn't catch it. Since my word versus the grader's word is meaningless, I've lost interest in a skill I developed over the years. That's just a fact of life.

Archive 08-10-2006 11:13 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>My assumption was only more often than not, for the altered high end cards, in holders. A 50.1% is all I was actually referring to although it is in fact probably higher. It would be very interesting to take 100 PSA 8 and PSA 9 T206's and give them to an impartial expert, like Derek Grady (though his roots were at SGC I am sure he could be unbiased today) and see how many he thinks are tampered with. My guess is over 50%. Go set registry !! ....for the record I am in the camp of thinking that says taking something off of a card that was not mfg'd there is not altering. It is debatable though....regards

Archive 08-10-2006 11:14 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>David Davis</b><p>It doesn't make sense to resubmit cards. If cards that have been altered are still getting through the cracks, what are the graders/authenticators going to do different for cards that have already been graded?<br /><br />Stick to buying raw cards and buying cards from someone that you know to be knowledgable and trustworthy. Anything else is gambling.<br /><br />For those that collect high grade cards, live with the knowledge that at some point your collection may be significantly less valued than now. At some point, there will be a technology developed that can tell if a card has been altered, be it through trimming, soaking, removal of writing, etc.

Archive 08-10-2006 11:21 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p>I recently sold cards on Ebay for the first time and I didn't even bother describing the graded stuff. The raw stuff I took pains to describe the cards flaws but it seemed pointless to point out that the SGC 40 I was selling was actually a hell of a lot nicer than the PSA 4 or that the PSA 3 presented better than the SGC 40. It's an unfortunate buy product of third party grading. I still think there can be a happy medium and I still think that we haven't gotten there yet.<br /><br />--Chad

Archive 08-10-2006 11:28 AM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>and one we've had before. What we have right now is merely a perfect storm of old issues coming up coincidentally at the same time. <br /><br />The fake Wagner is ubiquitous to our hobby. What I find reassuring about that situation is that no one with any real qualifications or experience is participating. Absent the level of expertise and shared knowledge out there, I shudder to think of what might be happening. <br /><br />As for the altered slabs, I don't know enough about the specifics to comment, so I won't, other than to say that we all know of WIWAG and it is quite likely that there are slabs floating around out there that have been tampered with. Buy the card, not the slab. <br /><br />Turning to the more general issue of high grade cards and slabs, I am not surprised to hear rumblings to the effect that more and more folks are rejecting top tier slabbed cards as altered. The money is too great for it not to attract a sophisticated crimimal element. I collect mid-grade and low grade stuff due to affordability and often lack of higher grade materials. I do think, as I've said in the past, that we need to move closer to the art model w/r/t legitimate conservation of cards. Cleaning and removal of foreigh substances, properly performed, simply is not a sore spot for me given what is accepted practice in the art world. <br /><br />Finally, on the sky-is-falling market woes, not quite. I see prices on cards continuing to surge forward, the economy is decent as it affects folks like us (upper middle class and wealthy) who comprise the majority of those who continue to collect vintage cards, and there are many, many folks out there who would jump on vintage materials if there was a modest correction in the price structure. I'd be far more worried about the real estate market taking a dump than about N172s falling through the floor.

Archive 08-10-2006 12:02 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>FYS</b><p>"Someone mentioned that many of these card altering shenanigans were taking place in the 1990's, and that was certainly true. The response was the advent of the grading services, which were formed not only to grade but to detect these alterations. Now it is coming to light with greater frequency that altered cards are getting encapsulated anyway. What's the defense to that? Do cards that were graded five years ago have to be resubmitted to be looked at with ever greater scrutiny? I don't know the answer, but it is a serious concern. With regard to Rhys's post, what can the network54 community do to help clean up parts of the hobby that need policing? We are a pretty powerful and educated group, and there must be something a large field of experts can do similar to what Rhys suggested." - Barry Sloate<br /><br />Barry, <br /><br />You want reform Barry, you are actually one of the few people that could help push the effort. I have known for some time that the Wagner is trimmed. As many know, there is an East Coast Collector with before and after pictures. Bill and Barry also mentioned first hand knowledge of the trimming. Bill also mentioned that McNeil was aware the card was trimmed and insenuaded that Dave Hall is aware. There are obviously other (likely Mastro + others) with first hand knowledge of the trimming. <br /><br />In any case, the hobby icon is altered. Until this is publically disclosed and reform is taken, then fraud and deception will certainly continue. I have felt for some time that it was acceptable to allow the trimmed icon to remain a lie with the general public for the good of the hobby. I no longer feel that is appropriate. I personally have absolutely no hobby clout, so someone like yourself would have to write an article detailing the true history of the Wagner. You talk about reform, but are you really prepared to stand up for it? <br /><br />Final question, do you still submit to PSA knowing first hand that they knowingly have a trimmed Wagner and present it as the icon of the hobby? <br /><br /><br /><br />

Archive 08-10-2006 12:54 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>To most of us this should come as no surprise, we have continually posted graded cards that are questionable. I don't think the sky is falling it just seems that better education would suite buyers. <br /><br />What I think is great is that someone actually bought the cards and on the holders.<br /><br />As far as people not submitting to PSA because they have graded a trimmed Wagner, that will not happen as long as people are blindly paying the high prices for PSA cards.<br /><br />I personally have never and will never submit to PSA because of their past history.

Archive 08-10-2006 01:06 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>edacra</b><p>maybe in the future we'll value cards by their character instead of how sterile they are. <br /><br />if someone wants a vintage card that looks like it just came out of a pack, why not just buy a reprint?<br /><br />

Archive 08-10-2006 01:11 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>dd</b><p>I prefer paper(or cardboard) to plastic.

Archive 08-10-2006 01:28 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>To FYS: Yes, I have heard for years that the T206 Wagner graded PSA-8 has been trimmed. However, I have never had the opportunity to see the before and after pictures firsthand. Therefore, it is inappropriate for me to be the one to come forward. For those few who have seen them, they are free to respond if they are willing to deal with the controversy. As far as submitting cards myself, I have sent a few to PSA but for the most part I use SGC. I feel they are the most accurate of the big three.

Archive 08-10-2006 02:43 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>FYS</b><p>Barry, <br /><br />I think you know the first hand parties involved with the Wagner trimming and maybe you could contribute/spearhead the complete truth in an article in Old Cardboard. <br /><br />You could be the pioneer in changing the face or reforming the grading industry.

Archive 08-10-2006 02:57 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I've gotten in enough trouble over the years. I think I will defer and leave that story for someone else.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:01 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>FYS</b><p>"I've gotten in enough trouble over the years. I think I will defer and leave that story for someone else." - Barry Sloate<br /><br />Then why start a thread asking how to help the situation if you are unwilling to take measure. <br />

Archive 08-10-2006 03:13 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>John_B_California</b><p>I know this topic has come up many times before, but I have to play devil's advocate when it comes to the amount of trimmed, altered or otherwise "bad" pre WWII PSA graded cards.<br /><br />I'm looking at the PSA population numbers right now for T206. <br /><br />There's been 62,000 cards graded to date. There's only 252 PSA 9's. There's been 13 10's. That's less than 1/2 of 1% of all cards submitted. If altered and trimmed cards are so prevalent, why are they so rare?<br /><br />For the T205 set, there's been 14,273 cards submitted for grading. There's 175 8's, 4 9's, and no 10's. <br /><br />For T204 Ramly, there's virtually nothing in high grade.<br /><br />If I knew nothing about cards, those numbers look pretty normal in terms of distribution. I can imagine 14,000 extremely delicate T205's in circulation; the bulk will be low grades, and they'll get rarer and rarer as the grades up. It's just the law of averages. The numbers are skewed because of breakouts and re-submissions. Even if the real number is 8,000 or 10,000, I still don't see it.<br /><br />I agree there's a very strong incentive for some people to alter cards given the strength of the market. And obviously the pop numbers are imperfect. But I wonder, if it's so easy to alter these cards, why aren't there more of them? <br /><br />The Set Registry has created huge demand for low pop commons. In the '33 Goudey set, low pop commons can reach $10,000-$15,000. The pop numbers have barely moved for some of the rarest cards as prices have exploded. Again, why aren't more 7's being created into 8's?<br /><br />It's inevitable that some graded cards are altered. But over 50%? That's a strong allegation. I don't see it in the numbers at all. Alot of very desirable pre WWI cards have not been graded in high grades. A mint T205 Cobb would be a holy grail, but it doesn't exist. Alot of HOF'ers in T206 have never gotten a Mint 9. Some cards have always been rare (T206 Green Cobb).<br /><br />There's tremendous demand for PSA 8 T206's. People would die for a straight NM-MT set. But some cards don't even exist in an 8. Some show only 1 or 2 copies in NM 7.<br /><br />Statistically, what numbers jump out as an anomaly? <br /><br />John

Archive 08-10-2006 03:17 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Judge Dred (Fred)</b><p>Damned if you do, damned if you don't.<br /><br />Barry, you're our silent heretic for the vintage baseball collecting religion...<br /><br />I wouldn't do it unless I had irrefutable corroborating evidence. Even if I did have this evidence I'm not sure I'd like to be the one to "drop a dime" on some of the people that might be involved. <br /><br />This has been discussed a few times and still NOBODY has done a thing about it. Where do you start? 60 Minutes or some other news show that might want to pick up the story? It'd be an interesting story but I'd hate for my wife to hear about it because she'd say something like... "hey, just how much do you spend on that stuff?" I don't think I want her to come to the realization that we eat cat food because I like card board.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:22 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The thread was about a general trend in the hobby, and observations made by collectors who handle high grade cards on a regualr basis (which I don't). It was not meant to single out a particular card. And to repeat, without concrete evidence it would be a story based on hearsay. Yes, I have my personal doubts about the card, but that is not sufficient and wouldn't hold up well in an article.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:22 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>ScottIngold</b><p> Then why start a thread asking how to help the situation if you are unwilling to take measure,<br /><br /><br />Interesting statement.... As someone in the hobby who does try to buy the best i can afford. I would certainly like to hear how this could possibly happen with the knowledge of some of the leaders in our hobby.<br /><br />I mean the gist of what Frank and Barry are saying is that PSA and others know for a fact that the 8 Wagner is trimmed.<br /><br />Please correct me if i have misunderstood.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:24 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>joe brennan</b><p>Where do you start? I don't think you start here on an open forum. I think the words proof and lawsuits come into play dealing with a card of this magnitude. I would be very suprised if anyone would pony up the proof facing lawsuits from the hugh corporations that would be involved if this matter was discussed much further. JMO<br><br>People said it was a million dollar wound. But the government must keep that money, cause I ain't never seen a penny of it.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:25 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I have no idea how PSA feels about the matter, but I am sure if we've heard the stories about it they have too.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:27 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Judge Dred (Fred)</b><p>Run Forrest, Run...

Archive 08-10-2006 03:32 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>John B. California: That there are relatively few 9-10 T206s in terms of overall percentages does not disprove concerns about altered higher grade cards. First of all, you did not count 7s and 8s. Anything over ex-mt from that era commands big registry bucks and is nice enough looking to be considered for alterations, especially hairline crease removals and stain removals. Add in the 7s and 8s and where are we? Second, you can pull any single set out of the air as an example but accumulate that over all prewar sets of all cards over ex-mt and there is quite a hefty number.

Archive 08-10-2006 03:32 PM

A Troubling Hobby Developement
 
Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Here's a question I've asked in the past, but never really understood the answer to.<br /><br />As I understand it, the T206 issue and the T213 (at least T213-1 and 2) issues are printed on similar stock, at a similar time in history.<br /><br />If you review the pop reports, here's what you'll see:<br /><br />GRADE T213 T206<br />1-2 62% of total 13% of total<br />3-4 34% of total 44% of total<br />5 3% of total 20% of total<br />6 .3% of total 9% of total<br />7 none graded 5% of total<br />8 .1% of total 2% of total<br />9 none graded .3% of total<br />10 none graded .01% of total<br /><br />Some may say this post belongs in this thread, others may say it doesn't. I'm unsure. But it would be great if someone could offer me a strong explanation as to why it is that you have two strikingly similar issues - one happens to be the most popular pre-war set, and one is not - and a radically different percentage breakdown in the grades for each, with the higher grades more prevalent in the most popular set.<br /><br />Any ideas?<br /><br />-Al


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