I'd love everyone's thoughts. Here's what happened.
 

I have a serious question. I bid on a few dodgers stubs this past week with Probstein. I have spent a very nice chunk of change with him this year, including the past few auction runs where I have gotten some dodgers stubs at relatively low prices (40-50 range) which I think is fair if not a bit cheap. There were a few nothing games that I wanted to add to my collection this time around (9 to be exact) so I put a few stupid high snipes in for 150 on all them just to make sure I won them. Keep in mind I have bid constantly every time his stubs have surfaced at auction with him. Now out of nowhere, these 40-50 dollar stubs all went for 100-130 and I wound up having to shell out 860 for 9 stubs. I paid because I believe in a bid as my word, however I contacted him expressing my concern, and he replied that he had the consigners ebay ID and it wasn't them who bid... he said maybe someone else wanted the tickets as much as I did... HMMMMMMM Has anyone else had a experience like this?

P.S I forgot to mention a few of the same ID's ran my price up on over half.

problem is shilling, or pumping, or defending, or whatever your favorite euphemism is, is pretty impossible to stop, especially with a third party consignor. I mean I had a buddy consign some pretty high end stuff recently to a well-known seller, what (other than the risk of me winning, or my personal ethical code) is to stop me, as a seemingly unrelated third party, from bidding his items up. This really is the case with any auction, I'd love to say that a live auction is exempt from this phenomena, but unless all the involved parties are known to the auctioneer, it's just not possible to stop it.

In your case, I definitely smell a rat as the history was there just waiting to be exploited.

Never bid or put in a snipe for more than you're willing to pay. I personally find it way too risky to put in "stupid high snipes" to guarantee I'll win something, and then assume it won't sell for more than fair market value. Too much shilling goes on these days!

Good luck resolving anything with Probstein aka Mr. Big

How to you get shilled up on a snipe?

Memorabilia is volatile. Something that sells for $10 today could sell for $100 tomorrow could sell for $10 the day after that.

Tickets and stubs are a niche market. All depends on who's looking for something on a particular day.

I'd guess you were outbidding somebody previously and they upped their game knowing you might be in the mix on similar stuff.

You could be right that is why I am asking everyone's thoughts.

Haha what's Mr. Big?

I am learning auickly

I agree with you! 100%

I too agree, a bit shady IMO

A big reason why I do not bid early on an item if I don't have to. I tend to snipe at the last second so I do not get shilled. Occasionally I am not available to bid on an item and I have to place an earlier bid that has been shilled to for self protection, sniping is my method. I do not use a sniping service so it is me and me alone in the last 2 seconds.

Especially when you have listed exactly what you're looking for. Not hard for someone with an already dubious reputation figuring out how to take advantage.

Or potentially someone else collecting the same thing dishing out some payback for having lost out on earlier auctions.

For a while back when you could still see the bidders there were a few Japanese bicycle collectors with pretty deep pockets. And once in a while they'd get mad at each other over having won or lost a particularly nice item. The prices they drove each other to as retribution were amazing. Often better than 10X retail.

Of course a couple people here knew one of them and when we were debating why he'd paid 500 for a pair of French toestraps, his response through them was that he had it presold to a dealer for 1000 who in turn had a buyer at closer to 2000. The 500 guy spoke English but was uncomfortable emailing directly even when assured that his English was more than fine. The dealer and end buyer didn't and felt they couldn't do Ebay because of that.

Steve B

So he does have a dubious reputation? I don't know him.

If you are prepared to pay $150, is your fault. You got what you paid for.

If you wanted to see if any shilling was going on, you could of max bid lower on some of the items say '40 bucks' and see if that winner was also the guy bringing up your other cards and see if magically that item went for sale again...

There are lots of previous threads regarding Problemstein...

Minority
 

I am in the vast minority in my mindset on auctions. I bid on the first day, whatever I want to pay, then I never go back and look at it again. I do the same thing with my investments...I buy five stocks every year, and never look at them until the next year. I've never regretted it...

Cheers,
Geno

Bidding
 

Ive won way way way too many auctions at my TOP SECRET NOBODY ELSE KNOWS SWEAR TO GOD QUADRUPLY ENCRIPTED HIGHEST POSSIBLE bid to ever again offer a penny more than I would be thrillled to pay!!! I suggest you do likewise and you will have no regrets!

I was thinking this combined with the tax return season. It could be someone that was interested and suddenly had the extra funds at this time.

Thanks buddy!

Pulling all of the facts together, it absolutely sounds sketchy.

I don't ever put a high bid on any item. If I bid early on an item, it's to guarantee that I get notifications for when I get outbid and when it ends. If I don't get outbid, I know I got the card at a steal of a deal. Otherwise, I only snipe at the end at a price I'm comfortable with.

Also, I do not like Probstein. I had one encounter with him and it was enough to always second guess targeting any of his auctions.

*this*

I don't understand this either.

A snipe is a last second bid, you can't get shilled on a snipe. The only thing that could have happened on a snipe is that another bidder had a pre-existing high bid or another person had a high snipe also. In those cases the other person just also really wanted the card. This can't be shilling.

Shilling happens to those that bid before the end of the auction and a lower bidder throws incremental small bids in to try to find their max.

We all have likely gotten dinged by putting in a big snipe to win something. Hell, paid over 150 bucks for a 82' topps common doing this when someone else was doing the same thing...whoops

Auctions
 

I'm sure if you've been in the hobby Long enough you've experienced what you referred to in your original post. I learned my lessons early on in the collecting venue so now I no longer bid in the same fashion. I think my philosophy on things has changed as well and only bid what I believe its worth. If I come up on the short end it just wasn't meant to be; you can't have everything.

Man, I do not miss those days.

There were several bidders that would watch everything I bid on as we collected the same material. I could only snipe because one of them would see I had found something and outbid me otherwise.

That and always getting a profanity laced eBay message every time I sniped someone who felt that bidding at the last second is unfair... that was fantastic. :cool:

This.

Unless your collection is incredibly niche (and for some people it is, and that's what drives prices up sometimes, when two or more people have the same niche.), there's always something else out there to spend your money on if you're not comfortable overpaying on something you're looking at right now.



As an extreme example for niche collecting, I use something from personal experience I've dubbed "The Lily Langtry Effect".

Lily Langtry was a popular Turn of the Century actress. I ran across her because around the late 90's to early 2000's I was collecting another turn of the century actress named Lillian Russell.

Langtry did not have as much material made of her as Russell, but I noticed anything of the era with her name on it had skyrocketed in price on Ebay, so I started to look for Langtry stuff at local Antique shops and shows, while also discovering her name was often misspelled in Ebay listings, which caused opportunistic pickups for myself.

For a short while the same 3 or 4 collectors were competing with each other for Langtry stuff and anything on a tobacco card, pin, vintage photograph or cabinet would consistently land at anywhere from $150-$250 each.

Flash forward to today, the competition has disappeared and those same type of items can be had for between $5-$35 each, if you look at completed Ebay auctions.

While you can't get shilled with a snipe, you could have walked into shilling scenario involving other bidders. To echo the others never bid more than you are ok to pay. Even with out Problemstein (great pun BTW) we've all had a weird price or two on eBay. Just the nature of the beast. You never know who is bidding. Over time it tends to even out with the great deals and auctions that no one seems to spot.

Agreed... Also, Mr. Big is untouchable with Ebay, period. They just simply don't give a shit. Just go back and look at past threads pertaining this. He does what he wants, how he wants, and when he wants....

its all about supply and demand that particular seller has a "massive following" his description is very detailed so they do not fall under the Radar
so when certain tickets come up for Auction starting at 99 cents no reserve
their going to get a lot of early action with no one scared off so they get vested in the auction , and when see they got out bid keep re-popping bids
more emotional with their heart than with their head sometimes some of his Dodgers tickets sell for under $40 due to the mediocre Game Result
Lets face it apart From the Ruth/Gehrig Era Yankees The Brooklyn Dodgers are the most sought after Baseball tickets especially Regular season
big collectors not resellers go after these "Better" game result tickets so they do not come back into the market for sale therefore causing more scarcity and higher Retail pricing ,
Trust me Vintage Brooklyn Dodger tickets are very sought after especially more meaningful games with so many Hall Of Famers that played their hard to resist , I know my limits when I bid for me its basic economics just set your budget lower and less buyers remorse but expect to win less
sorry about the long winded response But I spend $1000's on tickets every year so I know tickets can be intoxicating

It is criminal that this guy gets away with this garbage, and believe me, he doesn't give a shit, trust me. Shilling, etc... Does Ebay only care about sales? Evidently so....Keep on rolling Mr. Big....

Probstein has about 400,000 positive feedbacks. 14,000 in the last month alone. 78,000 in 6 mos. Often does 1000s of sales a day.

I think it's reasonable to assume that he has studied everyone's in the hobbys collecting habits, carefully evaluated what they are looking for, evaluated what the range of their potential bids are based on the condition of what they are looking for, and then deputized someone (or maybe more than one person) to shill bid to screw that person over. Yep, all 40,000 of the items he is currently selling he has done this analysis for.

Seems very reasonable. While this level of due diligence far surpasses anything our IRS of CIA is capable of doing, I wouldn't put it by this guy.

Seems a little ridiculous to believe this, no?

Steve, Very fair analysis, but even if true, Probstein could care less about what people think. I actually stuck up for him several years ago on N54, I absolutely regret it to this day.. To him, it's a numbers game, he doesn't give a damn about what people think personally. I first did business with him about 12 years ago when he was somewhat humble and unknown. Good luck with that now, and shame on Ebay for being such a coward over business versus business ethics..

I'm not defending him, never really dealt with him other than maybe 1 or 2 sales, but the level of paranoia that a guy selling thousands of items in a day is shilling every auction based on his understanding of the limits of certain bidders is really a little nuts.

Shilling is not without risks. . . . you end up paying ebay charges either way, and then presumably either end up with the item (and have to sell it again with more fees) or have to buy it back from someone doing you a favor. Seems like the economic costs of widespread shilling falling through might not be worth the time and money of someone selling this kind of insane volume, but maybe I'm missing something obvious.

(Now whether shilling makes sense with a high ticket item, like a 52 Mantle or a 49 Jackie Leaf or Paige, is probably a separate discussion.)

You can't get shilled with a snipe. LOL

Tons of final bids are shill bids. Open your eyes.

If the auctions are staggered this is when you can really get hammered. Probstein123 a lot of times has them end at the same time and it is a little safer as the risk of winning goes up but through PWCC they end in many cases 30 seconds apart and as soon as the first auction goes off the shill sees where your at and bam they have got you at higher prices on them all.

The notion that shill bidding only is done through string bidding or chip bidding or whatever you want to call it is flat out comical. The two most dangerous are the high opening bid or hidden reserve and the nuclear snipe.

David, Just curious, do you have stock in Mr. Big's Company?

No.

One of the primary reasons you see so many less auctions is they are risky and stressful to run. With over 30% of final bids coming in the final minute you can see an item go from $5 to $150 or from $5 to $12. I have never consigned a card and have only run my own auctions and you can give stuff away if a few snipes don't come in. Hence one of the reasons shills come at the end. Not to mention they blend in with the crowd. I rarely run auctions anymore myself as I would rather control my selling price. Both of these sellers run so many listings it's impossible to police. I think a lot of times people accuse Rick of shilling the auctions and I would bet a good number of them he doesn't even know are going. I have monitored and participated in thousands of auctions and if someone isn't willing to let the item go cheap they are going to try and get you. Period.

Mr. Big would be proud....

I've always thought that the problem lies not with Probstein (or an agent of his) shilling his auctions, but rather the consignor or their agent bidding up an item that they are selling through Probstein. A difficult tactic to police on Probstein's part especially with the number of auctions he has going at any one time. Much easier to just turn a blind eye and plausibly deny any knowledge. And this way everyone - Ebay, Probstein, and the consignor all make more bank. Why kill the golden goose?

Tom, your comments would make sense on a very normal scale. This guy has been warned, threatened, and keeps on rocking and rolling. No, he can't keep up with all of the listings,but don't let this fool you. This guy keeps his hand on everything pertaining his business. When he squeezes a quarter, the freaking eagle screams..

I honestly believe the much larger problem is with consignors shilling their own items, which can be nearly impossible for any auction company to control. Am I saying that all auction companies are 100% innocent of shenanigans, of course not, but especially on $140 items, it doesn't pay them to make the Herculean effort to shill all their items that go off at such a small amount, the consignor however only has to protect his several items.

EDIT: Or, to but it another way: what he said (Bigdaddy) lol

If your snipe is in 30 seconds before the end it's not a snipe, that's a bid.

I have no bids on anything other than the opening if there isn't one to keep a seller from making an off site sale. I bid at 4 seconds with what I will pay. No one knows what I am bidding on till the auction is over and the screen refreshes.

Many people who own cards and consign them using sniping software to purchase cards. It is only natural for them to use sniping software to "re buy" them if they must.

Just imagine an auction with 60 seconds to go is at $57. Your snipe is all set to go off at $335. You really don't want to pay that much but will if you must. With 15 seconds to go the item bumps a little to $87. Bamm the final hammer is $318 and your the winner. You look at the bids and see that the under bidder looks fishy and then there is a gap from $151 to $315 and then your final bid. You just got shilled and not for a few bucks but for $167.

The first expensive card I purchased when I was back in the hobby this happened to me. Not because of shenanigans on the sellers part but a member on CU who wanted to stick it to me. They did and bragged about it on another message board and I got hip to how this happens. In fairness my bid wasn't a snipe but it didn't matter it was in there when his snipe triggered and he got me for $500. You live and you learn that all that matters is what you bid because if anyone else bids that high that is where the price is going.

I could see this possibility in a auction that a seller has an absolute bottom they are not willing to go to and are using a snipe or bid as hidden reserve. However, not all auctions end with a buyer using a nuclear snipe, likely not many.

A consigner using this would purchase many of his cards back or get numerous NPB's. I won't say this is incredibly uncommon because there are many cards that come back to eBay after what is likely a non payment. I don't think this is any regularity on sub 1000 dollar cards. It would have a huge failure rate.

Shilling is far more common in the weeks and days prior to the end as it is so easy to string bid to find a top for someone's bid and withdraw if you accidentally go over. A bid can not be withdrawn without seller permission less than 12 hours from the end per eBay rules.

As for the CU experience, that seems crappy but a rude one-off by a jerk. Was this a possible situation that you exposed you were going all in on card in a post before the end? He had to know you were throwing the kitchen sink at it or he would have just bought it from under you on accident.

I showed my hand. That said it was pretty intuitive of the guy to go as high as he did. Thankfully I bought another copy of the card in a 10 a few months later for less than half and then a few years later it zoomed passed my inflated purchase price and the dollar cost averaging method worked.

My point on this is simply even had a sniped our bids would have collided at a much higher price point than the pack. No timing of it mattered. The lesson if there is one is don't bring attention to auctions or cards you are buying until after the fact. My situation was a little unique in that sense and in the end it worked out just fine.

The bottom line is what I am telling you is happening all of the time. There are a multitude of auctions going off monthly with very sketchy looking bid history and it isn't just the string bidders. I have used every bidding method possible. At the end of the day if an item is wanted by others and is listed in an auction the most important factor is what the other bids are not when they are placed.

You see in many cases the same cards coming back to market time and time again. I am in a much smaller niche market but trust me I know when I am bidding against the house. Put a bunch of active auctions on your watch list and study the times the bids are placed, the retractions, the percentage of bids and the categories the bidders are placing bids on. What I am saying will make a lot more sense. If someone ever feels like they are being shilled just use the dollar triple stack and it works like a charm. The greed will get them and you are in the clear.

I see where you are coming from and I bet the wrestling market you are in is crazy niche and you likely know what people are up to.

There is of course, no perfect way. If people are doing this, then banning NPB bidders from ebay (of which I am totally for) is the only logical recourse. If they are winning and paying fees, there is no reason for an auction house to complain.

I just think that sniping, while not perfect, is the safest way to avoid bid ups. Same as I do not freak out about some other things that I feel are prevalent in the hobby.

If I am to keep enjoying it, I have to learn to deal with certain things. Much like ignoring the drunk behind me at a game, lol.

I don't want to get too focused on the minutia or I feel like I will be surfing the net in a tin foil cap. :D