Would you buy a 1933 Goudey Ruth Raw?
 

Title says it all, but I know Net54 loves specifics :D, so I will set the stage.

You are at a card show and a reputable dealer has a raw 1933 Goudey Ruth for sale. Card appears VG and does not look altered upon examination. Price is very fair for the card. Dealer says they will back up that it is real. Would you buy the card? Love to see your reason (s) on why you selected your poll answer.

I posed this exact question with some friends over the weekend, love to see Net54's take. I will give their takes in a few days.

Not to throw in a variable but if I'm at a large show and there's a TPG onsite, I'd be more inclined to make a deal dependent on the review for authenticity.

Absolutely and if I wasn't comfortable doing so I would stop collecting. I understand a new collector needing some help. A raw card has no more of a chance being altered than a slabbed card. In the real world it probably has a way less chance of being altered as they are altered to get into slabs.

For what a 1933 Goudey Ruth costs, I would not buy one raw. Sure, it could be ok. But chances are high that there is a reason why a card of that value is not in a holder.

He said it's bought from a reputable dealer that will back it up if it's "real." Unless, you weren't exactly quoting him?

I would clarify if it's altered or not real, will he give a refund?

if he says yes, then of course I would buy it. If he says no, then I wouldn't buy it. Otherwise, I voted yes...
.

I would not buy raw at those potential price points.

I am not skilled enough to judge what looks at different levels of the grading and would be comfortable it was a real card but unsure as I value as a result

I have more than enough trust in myself to buy a raw card.

I would pay a fair raw price if I was in person and can handle the card. If it's online, I would possibly lower an offer for risk of trimming or coloring dependent on what I see.

I don't think I'd buy one over the internet, but if I can examine the card in hand as in this scenario, I don't see why not.

I was under the impression that most of the trimmed pre-war cards were trimmed before any TPGs existed. Is that not correct?

Massive amounts of trimmed cards in PSA/SGC/etc. slabs have been outed as trimmed the last few years. Trimming did not stop with the advent of graders who seem unable or unwilling to detect a halfway decent trim job.

Kind of agree with Packs on this one.

I think far far more have been trimmed post TPG. 30 plus years and counting, and God only knows how many of these scumbags (I mean leading hobby figures) are still out there every day.

The greater the profit and the easier the profit is made, the more fraud there will be. I see no reason to think fraud is not an all time high in the hobby the last few years with how easy it is to do and how immensely high the returns are. We are probably at many, many multiples of 1990 fraud levels in terms of real dollars, inflation adjusted dollars, and quantity of incidents but I don’t have data to prove that.

I would have no hesitation to buy it without TPG assurances under the scenario described. I would not make the purchase, because nowadays I would not be able to afford it, even at a very reasonable price.

Brian (I bought my 2 piece 1933 Goudey Ruth in a group lot back in the day, and I valued its share of the purchase cost at the lowest possible 3 digit number)

Generally, no. Although a graded card can be undetected altered, at least its in a slab and can easily be sold if you might be suspicious. But a raw, if it comes back un-slabable, what are you going to do now ?

I believe this has a lot to do with why so many do not care about card alterations. If they find out their graded card is altered they can still easily pass it on to the next graded card collector/investor. Kinda like the modern game of hot potato with prospects.

Definitely easier to sell the problem to someone else and pass it along to the next sucker if it’s graded. I would hope people wouldn’t do that, but of course they will.

I would absolutely buy a raw card under the same conditions I would buy a slabbed card. Is the seller reputable? Will he refund money if it turns out something is wrong with the card? etc.
What I would not do is pay based upon some theoretical/made up grade. Just cause it looks like a 5, doesn't mean it will grade a 5.
Also, I would be much more inclined to buy a card raw in person, unless I knew the person or knew of their reputation. There are many on this board i would have no problem buying something raw from.

33 Goudey Ruth
 

Yes, I'd buy raw at a show as I'd trust myself to evaluate properly-

Trent King

I put maybe. If I get to hold it and examine it, then yes. If it's based on scans, then probably not.

I voted yes.

I have no problems buying raw period. Big ticket items in person viewing is a must, small time online browsing is ok. We should be well educated and evolved by now to spot all major imperfections, alterations, fakes etc. and after all that if your still pressed to get it graded just submit it… next

I trust my own judgement more than that of the opinion sellers, and I wouldn't charge myself as much.

Sadly The consensus by the market movers, the ones who set the going market price bidding in auctions seems to be once the card is in a PSA or SGC Holder with a number grade It doesn’t matter what has been done to the card. It’s in a holder now blessed by PSA or SGC and is unaltered and authentic with a number grade. It is now highly liquid and has a greater resale value now and down the road.

Yes, as I never tire of saying, the flip is now the commodity.

I would get a background on the card. How it was obtained by the dealer. I most likely would buy it raw, with a thorough review of the card. I'm sure they would back it up for being real, but altered is a different story, so I would really review the card before buying.

That's exactly what it is…

Not only would I, I did so. Gehrig too. And Foxx.

I once bought a raw 1933 Sport Kings Babe Ruth off eBay, paid $500 for it and it graded a 2 by PSA.. this was about 20 years ago or so.

now days, I would probably still buy raw off eBay due to the authenticity guarantee.

Not directed at anyone in particular, but I would bet at least some of you would not catch some of the more expert alterations that top of the profession card doctors are capable of.

I won an ungraded ‘33 Gehrig #92 in an eBay auction with a 99 cent starting bid for sub $800 in 2007 or 2008. It is now in a PSA 5 holder in my safe deposit box. But it’s a different world. So I voted maybe.

Not during winter

yes

I did exactly that
 

At the Philly show last year. I asked the dealer to guarantee the card would get a number grade (Not an "Authentic"), NOT specifying or asking for a guarantee of any particular number. He agreed and I purchased the card. It ended up getting a 2.5 - the best I thought possible when buying it!

+1 (in terms of altered cards residing in numbered slabs).

Also... Why are people putting so much stock in TPGs? Do they not pay attention, or are they so insecure that they need someone else to tell them what their own eyes should easily perceive?

Take this 1956 Jackie Card with its mangled top border and multiple creases. Does anyone really think this card is a "5.5"? I prefer to trust my own judgement...

https://www.ebay.com/itm/28583419175...Bk9SR7LIgc3lYw

I answered yes based on the conditions of the sale. And as was stated a few posts above, I think most of us think we are great at catching alterations but I would wager (in honor of snowman) that most who think they can spot alterations would not do well on a grading test.

Only if I was drunk, drugged and blindfolded.

1933 Goudeys
 

I'm selling my collection of the 239 card set.I put it together
in the early 90s.Then I got very busy at work,and personal
problems.
So,I put it away until now.Grading was not in the picture?
We looped them,held them,and inspected them.

I don’t collect Goudey; however, tweak the original question slightly and I’d feel comfortable buying raw. A T206 Matty, Cobb, or WaJo? Yes, I’d buy it ungraded in person.

Knew it would be an old label before looking.

Lawyers don't represent themselves despite their grasp of law. It's because you might be seeing what you want to see.

I would definitely buy a raw Goudey Ruth as I've handled them over the years. I bought a collection a few years back that had a Goudey and two Sport Kings Ruth cards in it along with a bunch of other Goudeys.

Sure.

Interesting this would come up. I bought a lot of raw Diamond Stars off another group and when they came, they were all considerably short/thin compared to the rest of my set. I am aware of the variation in National Chicle, but was uncomfortable with them. The seller was good with the refund. He sold them to someone else and they all graded (none were of any notable value) and he sent me a note that they weren't trimmed. I am very sure they were not only because of the smallness but the borders seemed a bit wavy to me. It worked out ok for both of us as I would have been uncomfortable with them in my set (which I intend to keep the commons raw).

"We stand by the grade" :confused:

Yup. That guarantee doesn't mean much when they control the reviews.

So as of now, its 52 percent yes, 28 percent no, and 18 percent maybe.

When I posed this topic to my circle of 10 friends, it was 80 percent No and 20 percent yes. The yeses mostly gave answers like above.

The Nos said three things:

1. Concern over why a dealer would sell a 5k plus card raw.
2. No reason to buy. There are plenty of graded ones out there already.
3. Basically, not worth the risk.

FYI, I am in the Yes camp. I would have qualms purchasing the card in this scenario.

IMO people here are either overrating their own abilities or underestimating card doctors or both. There are countless altered cards now in slabs, and it's not just incompetence or corruption.

Peter, concur. But do you feel about the grading companies' ability to distinguish between a real and a fake 1933 Goudey Ruth?

Assuming their best graders are involved and they're acting in good faith? I think they'd do pretty well but some of the elite card doctors might be able to fool them sometimes. I assume you mean altered, not fake as in counterfeit.

No, the latter, fake as in counterfeit.

I have to assume they could spot a fake, unless technology is already that good that they can't, in which case this hobby is doomed.