Sports memorabilia market
 

The high end sports memorabilia market is currently the hottest it's ever been. Vintage baseball memorabilia in particular has been setting record prices annually, from Babe Ruth's 1920 jersey selling for over $4 million, to Lou Gehrig's 1927 jersey going for over $700,000, to Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays jerseys selling in the $250,000 range.

I was talking with a few of my collecting buddies the other day, and we were all wondering if this is the true peak of this market, or if it could possibly continue growing over time.

One of the things we discussed was whether or not the millennial generation will ever collect the way we do. Will kids today ever be interested in game worn jerseys of guys that played 100 years before they were born? If so, will they be willing to drop the kind of money on these items that people are paying today?

I guess my main question is, will we look back on the current market 30 years from now and go "what the hell were people thinking paying those outrageous prices?"

Or will we look back 30 years from now and go "man I wish I had a time machine to go back and pay those crazy low 2016 prices"

In addition, are there any players that you believe are more prone to being forgotten about over time? As an example, will kids 50 years from now even know or care about who Mickey Mantle was?
Are there any guys you believe have the ability to transcend these potential issues because of their legendary status?

Just curious to hear what kind of opinions you guys have on this.

I have a feeling that the prices are completely nuts and won't last. Not long term anyway. I am dubious of younger fans collecting the pre-80's and pre-war guys as hard as we do and thus I think in 15-20 years we will look back and laugh at how a jersey that went for $500k in 2016 is now selling for $25k.


but I could be wrong, I thought the Red Sox would go to the world series

I hate to say it, but I was actually thinking the same thing. I just don't see how this market can sustain its current prices, let alone increase.

Are there any guys you believe may be able to transcend this and remain sought after far into the future? In my personal opinion, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe Dimaggio and Jackie Robinson are the first 4 that come to mind as far as guys who will most likely always be collected.

Ruth simply because he's Babe Ruth and was the face of the roaring 20's, Gehrig because he was the second most beloved Yankee of all time after Ruth and his immortal Luckiest Man speech that will live on forever, Dimaggio because of his connection to Marilyn Monroe and pop culture in general, and Robinson because he broke the color barrier.

Other than them, I find it rather hard to think of other names that will truly be collected forever.

Baseball has become a local market sport, and in many ways so has collecting, and that will continue. Red Sox fans will always collect Ted Williams, Braves - Hank Aaron, Cubs - Ernie Banks, Reds - Rose, Frank Robinson, Astros - Nolan Ryan, Orioles - Cal Ripken, Dodgers - Koufax, Pirates - Wagner, Cardinals - Hornsby, Musial, Giants - Mays, etc...

Others that I think will transcend: Joe Jackson, Ty Cobb, Cy Young, Mathewson.

I have been trying my best to get my son interested/involved in the hobby but being 15, he has other things on his mind it seems? :D

That aside, I have told him/shown him my Mantle, Mays and Robison cards as well as a few of my other high 52 Topps numbered cards just so he is familiar with/knows them so hopefully that carries over some day where he either adds to my collection or at least cherishes them and does the same with his children someday.

Times change but I believe it is up to us adults/parents to do the best we can do to help keep these players, and the hobby, as active/known the best we can.

I'm dubious, like Nick. Then again, I've never been a player in the high end market. I get excited over oddball stuff that, hopefully, doesn't interest other bidders. :p

I've lived through a lot of bubbles now. There always a lot of good reasons why the prices are ridiculous and how a crash is imminent. I was living in a 500 foot square apartment with my future wife in 1992 in the West Village in NYC and someone slipped a piece of paper under the door one morning saying we could buy the unit for $225,000 Boy did we laugh about that. What kind of maniac would pay that kind of money for a 500 square foot apartment with the shower in the kitchen. Yep. Probably worth 2 million today. Remember too when Google was trading for $75 and people were telling me to stay the hell away. It was doomed. Bottom line is you can come up with 1000 reasons why the sky is about to fall. Go to the Christies website and look at the auctions of old stuff people are still willing to spend a fortune for. Eggs. Paintings. Vases. Jewlelry boxes. None of them kids today care on whit about. Not saying every piece of memorabilia will hold its price but many will continue to rise.

Eggs

Goose eggs

Completely agree. We've already seen the turnover in generations that everybody wondered about in the 1980s and 1990s. Why would the kids at that time be interested in the same things as my generation (I'm 70) when they are in their 30s and 40s and starting to have disposal income to spend on collectibles? The prevailing theory was that they wouldn't care at all about players of the 1950s and 60s that the boomers had grown up idolizing, and maybe not even the old timers from the 1920s and 30s. Well, here we are, and all that stuff seems to be holding up pretty well, to say the least.

The other trueism I've experienced in my life is that every amazingly lucrative transaction I have ever closed (whether real estate or collectibles) I walked out the door convinced that I was a complete idiot, that I overpaid dramatically, and that I would rue the day I bought it. A couple of real estate transaction I even asked the broker about trying to undo and thankfully he/she talked me out if it. And I have never gotten something at a bargain price where it appreciated dramatically in value. Not once.

How true. Sounds like how I buy a penny stock. Now (like my collectibles), nothing but blue chip.

As for the younger folks collecting people they don't know, I am north of 50, and barely remember Mantle. While my kids may believe otherwise, I never saw Dimaggio, Williams, Musial, Ruth, Gehrig, or Cobb play live, or even on the radio. Yet I still love a collectible or card with any of the aforementioned on it.

Further confession... I buy nothing new, but about a year ago I did jump in on a Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8. Thoughts being that with a max of 700 printed, a cult following stronger than Star Trek, and a generation that one day will have cash and look back at this series fondly, I took a shot at it.

Everyone will want a piece of their past at some point, so this was my venture into that market.

I love the Walking Dead card idea. Now that's a great roll of the dice. I buy noting new either, but bought a Mike Trout 1/100 card from 2011 that looked really cool. If I could fine another dozen or so I'd by them as well but the market appears to have dried up.

I think there is a vast difference between historically important items, which will hold value or increase, and other collectible items, especially those based upon condition alone. Obviously the best is to have an histoically important, rare item in great condition. However, I would much rather have an historically important item in poor condition, than nearly all mint modern cards. When cards that are fairly common, but in a high grade, start selling for more than rarer historically important items, I think this is a bad sign. Having said that, I have tried to never substitute my judgment for that of another collector. I also acknowledge that what is historically important is very subjective. For me, my historical collection is 19th century baseball, while I enjoy my Ashburn collection, knowing it is unlikely to appreciate to any great extent.

I think prewar items for the big stars will always hold up because it's a supply issue. For example, if there are only 40 known copies of an E103 Honus Wagner card, you're telling me you won't be able to find 100 collectors who really want that card and would bid at least the current going prices in a population of 400 million people (in 30 years)? Now all of the card that are sky high and where there are thousands upon thousands of those same cards in existence, that's a different story. No idea what will happen with those. I totally agree that eye appeal plays in a big factor in how much folks are willing to pay for items. However, if the difference between the cards is miniscule and it's just a 10 vs a 9 on a flip, don't know if folks will always be paying multipliers for that.

One obvious example is Jackie Robinson. In 100 years, if we haven't completely destroyed the planet, people will still consider Jackie Robinson a major sports and cultural icon. Yogi Berra? Mike Schmidt? Tom Seaver? Not so much.

doood, there was no need to inject this into a baseball card thread. It won't end well.

I'm in the George Carlin camp. The Earth is laughing at us. It will be around for a few billion years after we are long done killing each other. We are a fleeting surface nuisance at best.

post go bye bye

Only time will tell, but IMO it doesn't bode well that most kids today could care less about material items. They should be called the "Minimalist" generation instead of "Millennials". Their lives revolve around electronics. Their phones, video games, computer, et cetera. My son has zero interest in my collection and I doubt my daughter will care either. Now, I don't think the bottom will fall out as I think there will always be a certain segment of society that collects things and baseball isn't exactly Pogs and Beanie Babies. I just don't necessarily think 500K for a Mantle Jersey is going to hold up forever.

I own a vintage toy store and there is no longer much interest at all in toys older than the 1960s with a few exceptions. I have a customer who is in his 90s who has the most incredible cast iron toy collection you could imagine. He wants to sell it, but he wants 1980s prices. All of his customers are dead. Try selling cowboy and western toys from the 1950s, those Baby Boomers are past the collecting stage of life. Hopalong has left the building.

You just asked that this thread not be turned into something like this. Please follow your own advice.

When I was a teen, like my son, I didn't have much interest either but obviously that changed when I got older.

It's a hit or miss if my son, or other kids, will take it up, but maybe like me, thinking back about my Dad's Beehive hockey card collection, (that I didn't care much about) as I got older, maybe they will?

I know nothing about the toy collector market, but like everything else did over the years, maybe it's just in a lull at the moment?

good point, post deleted

I really don't see the Memorabillia market dropping at all. Cards have alyays taken top billing in the collectors interest as memorabillia has been overlooked. Collectors are now seeing how much better it is to own a piece of the game. I believe it will continue to rise. Frank

I generally agree, but the autograph market is so fraught with fraudsters I see that stalling.

The more forgers that are uncovered, the more the TPG's know what to look for. Would you say there are more forgeries being passed off now than before PSA/JSA/SGC say pre 1998?

That is hard to say because pre 1998 we didn't have so much internet sales exposing us all to so much high end stuff. We had to use either clubs, or want ads or shows/shops to find stuff. I had never even seen a Babe Ruth ball in person until 2001, (and only photos before that of collections) Now, if I had the cash, I could buy 50 of em a month on ebay.

Frank, this is a good point and I agree to an extent that the market likely won't see a drop anytime soon. However, the real question is how long these prices will sustain. I just can't imagine today's generation being interested in any of this stuff the way we are. My personal opinion is that as long as the baby boomers are still collecting the market will hold up, but after that I just don't see kids growing up today dropping $400k for a Mickey Mantle jersey in the future. I think these items will always be in the six figure range, but more in the very low six figures rather than close to a million like we're seeing today.