Head scratching over t206 price boom
 

As I posted elsewhere last week: I was very active on this board until about 4 years ago when I took a leave of absence. So I am no "newbie" but have sort of "fresh eyes" on some current trends. If this has been covered here ad nauseum let me know.

I was amazed last month to catch up with the t206 prices which seem to still be climbing, judging by last night's Heritage. Now I know some say the reason is just "more investors," or "boomers with more income," Covid boredom, or "long overdue." But when I see graded prices tripiing--or much more--even for the most common commons and common backs I have to wonder: Is this driven largely by new "low information buyers" who are, at least in part, falling for new description tendencies at auction houses and ebay? Or they don't care?

These sellers used to, by and large, reserve the "only x better" for very high grade or cards with non-Piedmont/Sweet Cap backs. Now I am amazed to see so many Piedmont/SC cards described as "only x better"--sometimes they add "for this card back and version/factory" but often not. And, of course, you can break down these into so many "special" types because of the 150/350/450 breakdowns.

So a new collector might see a, say, ultra-common PSA 5 with a 350 SC back that went for $95 not long and see the descriptive "only 3 higher" and figure it's scarce and pay $600. Have seen this many times without even searching. And, yes, Hindus always got a big premium but now....Cycles? EPDG?

So: this is part of it or not? And, in any case, what do you think is driving this boom?

Last night a NM Rhoads--with a SC back--went for, hold on....$6000 at Heritage. I can only think the long-accepted name misspelled make it seem to new collectors/investors like a true rarity. But then a NM Pelty--vertical, no less--of similar type went for $5000. Of course, that's exceptional, but still prices wild almost across the board.

Like many, I used to live and die by the "pop reports"--even though hard to search. Now those sites, and VCP, are so much easier to use--but I wonder how many new folks are using them? I might guess, in a similar way, that lack of research is also partly driving the surge in 1950s and 1960s prices for high-grade HOFers. Great cards, but do buyers even know or care that even many PSA 8s have a pop in the dozens or hundreds?

crash and burn coming?
 

My impression is that lot of working age collectors are not enamored with the stock market, 401ks, IRAs, etc. As a result, they have put their money into crypto (not a good week for that... yikes!!), sports cards, and other stuff as "investments". They aren't merely spending a little discretionary income on a hobby. It seems they are trying to make bank on cardboard (or whatever they are buying). Sports card investing is core to their retirement plan.

I was listening to a podcast this morning and one of the guys lost about $13k on one high end ultra modern card that he bought for around $24k and ended up selling recently for $11k. Ouch! His rationale was he needed the cash to make another large card purchase to try to make some money. OK. I understand needing to, and being OK with, taking losses here and there. It seems like there is a widespread casino and status symbol mindset though. So many think/act like they are high rollers and prices will continue going up, up, up and they'll be able to retire early or something.

Personally, I think people are going to get blind-sided by what is coming later this year and next year. There is a saying that you can't eat gold. Well, people can't eat slabbed cards either. Maybe I'll be able to trade some grass fed beef for cards I've always wanted...

$22,200 for a Demmitt St Louis. I see 340 on the combined pops of the big 2 graders. It was a 4.5, which is a condition rarity for Polar Bear, but still, 22 K for a common.

All a matter of time and timing, my man. Live through several of these cycles and you come to understand that they are cycles. There are multiple threads on this board about cards as investments, so not rehashing it here. Suffice it to say that there is a fifty year history of cards as an asset class, and lots of really interesting money is pouring into the hobby infrastructure, so the odds of a fire sale event taking the market for collectibles to zero is minuscule. It will turn down, like real estate, and present some great opportunities for buyers.

You may well be right, but I am more interested in the current--it's easy to understand why an investor type would spend 2000 or 6000 for a high-grade Ruth or Mays (and maybe take a bath down the road) but not why dozens or hundreds are paying inflated sums for a VG-EX or Ex common. Why I asked about lack of knowledge about pop and sellers successfully hyping "only three higher" when it's just only three higher for typical Piedmont...

I use to just flip them to make a few $ going back to early 2000’s but they are so hard to find now I’ve turned into a collector! Why sell something that appreciates and is enjoyable to own.

The Rhoads card was a PSA 7. It is a Pop 6 with 3 higher.

T206 with low pop or rare backs are going up in price. I think they are undervalued.

Collectors/investors are finding their way to T206 for the same reasons this community has an interest in them. I enjoy all vintage but nothing compares to T206 when it comes to offering something for everyone. Plenty of HOF, different backs, low pop for higher grade cards, plenty of lower grade cards that are affordable, great history, plenty of raw and graded, etc.

I think T206 set collecting is picking up and will continue pushing up higher grade/lower pop cards.

Agree

The Rhoads (as I said) which went for $7200 was indeed a PSA 7--but it is indeed a Piedmont 350 common and while "only 3 higher" sounds good there are also 2 higher in Sweet Cap--and, besides, there are dozens of others with very similar numbers going for 1/3 that. Hell, I got a Chase PSA 7 privately last week with similar pop numbers at that level--I guess it's worth $10,000 by those standard--and also a Doyle PSA 7 with only ONE higher as a Piedmont 350 so maybe that it is worth $15,000 now. Ya think?

There's new money, and lots of it chasing pre-war right now. Combine that with the "chase the slab" mindset and you see the results.

Many high quality assets are up a lot in the last 2 years. Why should low pop T206 cards be any different?

I live in Florida- waterfront real estate is up a lot in the last two years and still rising in spite of higher rates. People who own it are happy. People who could have bought it a few years ago and didn't, complain, and claim the new buyers are dumb money because 10 years ago it was a lot cheaper.

Similar to high quality vintage cards.

Inflation is high. Scarce, quality, desirable assets will keep going up, imo. Low pop, high grade T206 are scare, quality and desirable assets.

The T206 market is pretty efficient. It's one thing I enjoy about it. Centered cards sell much higher than off-center for the same grade. Check out a full sized card vs a card that is smaller in the same grade and you'll see a price difference.

Is the smaller card trimmed or factory cut smaller? Don't know, but the market discounts the price of smaller or off-center cards. Cards that are full sized and centered get a premium price. Makes sense to me.

I hope more people discover what a gem the T206 set is and join in. I think they will. If that pushes prices up, so be it. I'm happy to see innovation in the industry and more people join.