Cards selling over 1 million dollars in 2024
 

Sports card radio had an interesting graphic (45 second mark) in his last video a few weeks ago :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Cf1x3hBjo

Cards sold for over $1 million

2014: 0

2015: 1

2016: 2

2017: 0

2018: 1

2019: 1

2020: 9

2021: 40

2022: 39

2023: 9

I am assuming these numbers are correct. I think a lot from 2021 and 2022 were modern cards, but I know there were some vintage from those years as well.

I know it depends on what cards come out for sale, but in 2024, I could see that number sticking around 10-15. It goes back to my post earlier last year about a flatting of card prices.

What say you?

Seems like a lot of sellers were cashing out during the run up.

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I was one of the lucky buyers not to purchase a million dollar card in 2014.

3 would be my guess. That run up was awesome for selling junk era junk for silly money that you couldn't give away before or now.

Funny how the costly cards are sold before the market drops

If i bought a million dollar card this is where I would live...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXk3teJpzGU

I predict there will be 7 in 2024...

.

I think the number will continue to go down because spending a million dollars on a baseball card is bonkers.

I don't even have a million pennies to spend on a card!! (A pause as readers try to quickly do the math in their heads.) :D

You gotta know when to hold them and know when to fold them.

I expected the 2 year price spikes but surprised by the big drop off in the number of them in 2023.

I would think the number would be similar in 2024 as 2023.

My guess would be there will always be some vintage cards that sell for a million plus. Whether those sales are reported is another story. I think the overall number of million plus sales will stay down because like the junk wax era modern became a victim of its own success. Too many green and red refactors and YouTube videos of people opening bulletproof looking suitcases that hold this junk.

What did PT Barnum say?

It had to be almost all modern. Or put differently, there just are not that many vintage cards that sell for over $1mm. Aside from the BN Ruth and the t206 Wagner and Doyle, I can’t think of any card that would sell for more than $1mm in pre war department; maybe a higher grade, super rare back 1916 Ruth or a nice T210 Jackson, but not even the W600 Cobb, W600 Type 1 Wagner, W600 Type 2 Matty, any e107, t206, 1914 CJ, etc, of any grade, goes over $1mm (or anywhere close).

That leaves maybe a few cards from the 50’s and 60’s that are graded super high - 52 Topps mantle or Mays, maybe a PSA 10 54 Aaron, 55 Clemente, 49-52 Robinson. A PSA registry buy…

I just don’t see there being many single vintage cards that sell over $1mm, even in the go-go years of 2021 and 2022.

I guess that makes me a lucky one too because I didn't buy any million dollar cards from 2014 - 2023! I guess there's a good reason for that...:p I ain't got a million dollars to spend on cardboard.

Anybody want to take a stab at the number of people there are that spent over a million dollars on a single card (let alone $100K)? Obviously, there are people with the resources to do this, but I'm going to bet it's a very small percentage of people that consider themselves hobbyist.

I came close to buying a million dollar Jasson Dominguez refractor. Then the drugs wore off.

You need a better supplier!

I can assure you W600 Cobb would, I have turned down two bona fide offers double 1m, all I have to do is say yes...

Wow!! That PSA 2 with the clipped corner sold for like $300k a few years ago. I suppose a nicer one could go for $1mm+ now, and apparently there are real offers. So that makes 4 prewar cards that could sell for $1mm+. Still, not many at all.

Only nine confirmed known and one of those is cut to the borders and most have other issues. A very low pop and highly desirable rarity, the perfect combo for big $$

Scott,

How does the Wagner W600 compare to the Cobb?

I feel like a lot of people will be getting out of the hobby this year. Prices continue to fall from years in the past. I honestly can't see 10 or more $1M cards being sold this year. Economy is still rough.

If there are 9 known Cobbs, the Wagner type 1 is at least twice as rare. But Cobb is of his famous Horner pose and Wagner looks like Fred Flintstone, and, all things even, Cobb beats Wagner. But if Cobb is over $1mm, Wagner must be worth quite a large bit as well.

Maybe this is too simple.

But it seems like it’s largely a function of whether the right cards come to market. If enough T206 Wagners and PSA 9 311 Mantles and Baltimore News Ruths come to market, then we could get to an unexpectedly high number of 7 digit sales.

Obviously the other part of the equation is that almost all of the modern cards that were hitting 7 digits over the last couple of years would fail to hit that level now. So all of those Tom Brady and Derek Jeter cards won’t be on the list this year.

Every thread needs a card. I live for threads like this when I can show off my glorious Barnum in all his glory. :D From the thread title alone, I thought there may be a chance to drop ol' Phineas Taylor into the thread.

If I am not mistaken a PSA 7 Ruth rookie has sold for over $2 million. The last PSA 4 Famous and Barr Ruth sold for about 3/4 million with tax so I would imagine that a nice PSA 5 might eclipse that barrier.
That said, I agree with Ryan; I don’t see many vintage baseball cards of that quality coming to auction in any particular year. I would guess that in 2024 five or less baseball cards eclipse that level.

HA a has a $1 million estimate on the PSA 6 1915 RED SOX team real photo postcard with Ruth that is in their February auction. Perhaps that will be the first vintage baseball card to break that barrier in 2024. I’m sure if it does it will shatter the record for the most expensive postcard ever.

Do those dollars have to be American? If not, I qualify... :D

https://live.staticflickr.com/593/22...21aaed07c4.jpg

Does this one have a shot?

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball-c...ription-071515

I don't think so--blank bank with horrible centering.

As Ryan pointed out, the W600 Wagner Street Clothes is scarcer than the Cobb, but not by much. I have not done a tally of known examples but could get to 5-6 pretty quick off the top of my head. The Street Clothes hold it back versus a Uniform pose. All that being said, it too is a prime candidate for a breakout sale due to the fact it is rarely ever offered for sale and certainly not since the market too a leg up post 2019. The extreme rarity of both the Cobb and Wagner Street Clothes and lack of auction appearances does not build up the steam as it has for the T206 Wagner as they make regular auction appearances. Some cards as we know are too rare for their own good. That being said a Wagner Street Clothes has not been publicly offered in many years, the last was the Heritage piece in 2019 and REA in 2020, each before the market for all things Wagner moved substantially higher.

Additionally I did a quick bit of pop work and have 7 Wagner Street Clothes that I am aware of and there are surely more, it is probably a higher pop card than the Cobb, as Wagner was available from SL from the get go and his Uniform pose is surely the easiest of all HOFers and possibly all players due to his immense popularity and orders from SL by many, many fans. Cobb W600 was not available until 1907 well into the W600 cabinet's offering and interest had waned in obtaining them from the general public. I am sure Kevin could give a more accurate head count on the Wagner Street Clothes population.

One other item worth mentioning, I assume the numbers of sales provided was from auction transactions. As Ryan and others can attest, many of these key items trade privately from seller to buyer or brokered deals from a 3rd party. So, it's quite likely the number of $1m sales is double what is tabulated from the public offerings. Much as like what takes place in the rare art world, automobiles and other high-end collectibles.

A noticed a few estimates in the upcoming Heritage sale that seem, ah hem . . . mighty generous. The days of "we will state a $10,000-$15,000 estimate because we know it will actually sell for $50,000+ . . ." seem long ago and far away. Now it seems we will state a very strong estimate with fingers and toes crossed.

We just had one very high profile amazing card clock in at a fraction of what the owner was predicting. I suspect we will see more.

I agree about a couple of the Heritage estimates.

Out of curiosity, what was the recent high profile card that sold for a fraction of its prediction?

Maybe this was already mentioned, but didn't a '33 Goudey Ruth #53 PSA 9 sell for over $4 in the same auction as a #181 Goudey Ruth PSA 9 that went for over $1M?
https://www.beckett.com/news/1933-go...r-4-2-million/
Not sure if those would reach a million again.

And true Mantle rookies have eclipsed $3M and a Gehrig Rookie Exhibit eclipsed $1M

Not sure if a '51 Bowman Mays graded in 9 (I don't know if there are any 10s) could reach $1 Million.

I think you actually would probably get to 7 figures with Mays 52T in PSA 9 (pop 9) and definitely in PSA 10 (pop 1). If I remember the rumors correctly, pre-pandemic a Mays 52T in PSA 9 went for as much as $750K in a privately brokered sale.

Mays 53T in PSA 9 or PSA 10 would probably be similarly likely to hit 7 figures, although part of the story there is that PSA 9 is pop 1, and PSA 10 is also pop 1. So us set registry goons would be a big part of the story there.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Mays 51B at PSA 9 (pop 8) would get to a cool $1M. Assuming it was a nice example, of course, and not merely an over-graded early slab. There are none in PSA 10.

Nice call. So as you and Scott point out, there are other $1mm+ prewar cards in addition to T206 wagner + Doyle and BN Ruth, specifically a W600 Cobb, nice looking and higher grade 1916 Ruths (or rare backs), and super high grade 1933 Goudey Ruths. Still, very few prewar cards will crest anywhere near $1mm compared to what we saw in the modern world, especially in 2021 and 2022.

I would actually be surprised if a 1951 Bowman Mays PSA 9 didn't hit at least 2 mil, considering 8s sell for around 250K, and that I don't think a 9 has sold for 15 years or so.

This is where I get lost. A "9" being worth about 8x the same card graded an "8". When it comes to subjectivity at that level, we pretty much know it could go either way. We've all seen 8's that are better than 9's.

I'm so glad that I'm not stuck on a kick where I have to have the highest number on a label and gladly pay 8x more for a number on a label.

Apologies to the registry collectors that may think I'm making fun of them. Even if I had $1.75M to spend on cards, I'd be making a different choice than upgrading my "8" grade for a "9" grade. But that's just me, I guess. :p

I wouldn't sweat it. I think even us hardcore set registry goons acknowledge the folly in our approach, and in moments of extreme omphaloskepsis may question whether it's wise to continue to climb this ladder.

Although truth be told, I suspect that when you get up into 7 figures, most of the time you're probably not really dealing with hard core set registry collectors. It's probably a much smaller subset of "investor-class" collectors, who are less focused on completing sets in high grades, and more focused on "number go up".

I learned a new word today.


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That makes sense.

If I were an "investor-class" collector (which aint gonna happen unless I win a HUGE Powerball jackpot), then I'd be looking at other cards besides Topps and Bowman because I would figure those cards are more plentiful than some of the true rarities like the W600s or E107s. It's probably a good thing I'm not in the "investor-class" because I'd probably lose my butt on the "investment", but I'd sure own some cool cards!

I'll be honest, I had to google that. Too funny.

Bingo. As someone who loves cards but ultimately buys them for investment, I believe that real/natural rarity is much better than manufactured rarity or rarity based on grade. And real rarity is most often found in the prewar stuff, like E107 and W600s. Even better, indeed almost essential, is the player, which is why I focus mostly on Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Jackson, etc. In my opinion (and general experience), rare cards of these types of players, regardless of grade, make for pretty good investments; this is especially true if you can hold them and sell when you choose.

Rob, I believe this is the card: https://robertedwardauctions.com/auc...eum-provenance

Spot on. Buying the right vintage low POP card at the right time of year and selling in the best fiscal quarter of year will consistently (5 year trend) yield an additional 25% gross ROI over the S&P 500 and DJA annual avg returns.

What were the projections/predictions for the BN Ruth? $7.2M is a fraction of something. If the card was supposed to sell north of $30M, then the $7.2M would seem a fraction of that amount.

When I see a card commanding $7.2M, in my mind it means it's a very desirable card.

I kind of look at it is a a sign that either the tide is turning on mega$-cards or the investing side of the community didn't agree this is one of those cards that is worth chasing.

Personally, I think it's a great card. I mean a frigging Ruth card from 1914 (sorry, I just can't bring myself to say "rookie" card).

What still blows my mind is that people were paying north of $1M for new modern 1/1 cards. That I'll never understand. Does anyone think that trend will continue? What are people's thoughts about how much those 1/1 cards that were fetching 6 digits would now bring at auction today?

Thank you.

Maybe "a fraction of" is a bit hyperbolic, but when knowlgeable people estimate $10-12 mil and sells for $7 mil . . . .that's quite a bit of a disconnect.

And, sure, I wish it was my card that sold for $7,000,000. I'd be done working tomorrow.

I originally expected the BN Ruth to sell north of $10M. When I saw it, however, I changed my view and expected it to sell for about what it ended up going for. I thought the card was very tired looking. The colors were not vibrant, and it exhibit more wear than one would expect for the grade. As I recall, it also was creased. $7.2M is a hell of a lot of money and was paid in recognition of the extreme rarity/significance of the card. And I expect those with the means to pay that sum would have been willing to pay more if the card had better eye appeal.

The BN Ruth seems to be roughly paralleling the T206 Wagner in terms of price, and, depending on its condition, I would expect it to fetch in the neighborhood of what a comparatively graded T206 Wagner to fetch.

The BN Ruth, which sold for $7.2mm, was purchased two years prior for $5mm (it was all over the news), fractional shares were offered on Collectible at a $6mm valuation, and for a year the card was available on Collectible for outright purchase for $8mm - nobody bought it. I don’t know why/how people thought it would go for $10mm+, let alone $8mm+. That said, I agree Corey that $7.2mm is a ton of money, and further, an amazing price under those circumstances, representing a $2.2mm increase (almost 50%) in only two years. Phenomenal result.

100% agree. Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it.

I am contemptuous of condition rarity. It only matters when a card is abundant enough across the grades to be readily acquired for the asking if the money is there. And modern PSA 10s are a joke. When you have a ton of cards kept in pack-fresh condition and a mountain of unopened material, there will be a ton of pack-fresh cards to grade and inevitably a big stack of 10s. Consider the card that many think of as the granddaddy of modern cards, the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card. Total PSA population of this card as of January 14, 2023, is 176,667, of which 4,091 are unqualified PSA 10 graded cards. The people trying to sell these cards will tell you that PSA 10 are only 2.3% of the total population of PSA Griffey cards. True, but meaningless, because there are still over 4,000 PSA perfect 10 Griffey cards. And, of course, the distinctions PSA makes over these cards is so trivial that you can put a bunch of PSA 9 Griffeys with a 10 Griffey in a pile with the labels covered and the vast majority of collectors will not be able to choose the PSA 10. I also am disgusted that massive value swings result from arbitrary and opaque decisions made by unknown persons at the TPG, and the TPGs have a dismal track record of approving altered cards. Lots of 10s with a shave and a haircut.

I loathe manufactured rarity. The problem with manufactured rarities is that demand for them hasn’t built organically and over the long term. The manufacturers keep churning them out, year after year, in every series and set, and they get hyped relentlessly to push the issue out the door, until the next wave of cards is issued and they become yesterday’s news. Also, when every card has a rainbow of parallel manufactured rarities, player collectors get frustrated and burned out, and they quit. The result is a mountain of very low print run cards that fall in value after issue and stay way down by comparison to the initial price run. Reminds me of bad IPOs.