Looking for ideas
 

Hey guys, wanted to cast a net out to the vintage intelligentsia here. I have developed a crazy notion over the last week that I should buy a Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Chrome autographed rookie card, as it appears he's going to end up as one of the greatest of all time, on his current trajectory. Then I think of others like A-Rod, Clemens, Mattingly, etc - others that derailed for one reason or another. I have the urge to make this my one big purchase for 2017 but feel like that money could be better spent on vintage. I am looking for some cards I am not thinking about that I can spend the same amount on (roughly $2K)....Could I get a nice Babe Ruth '33 Goudey for that price, any iconic cards of Gehrig, Hornsby, etc? If you have a minute - what card or cards might that $2K go to instead? Not just pre-war but post-war. Need some level headed guidance because I think $2K is way too much to spend on a card from 2009, but it's Trout. He's unbelievable.

thanks!
Carl

If your talking about investment...

Trout is an awesome amazing player - the best player i have seen since barry bonds. BUT he could blow out his knee opening day, get caught doing roids, arrested for beating his GF, get hit by lightning, lol etc, etc

until hes retired and in the HOF, anything can happen. Doc gooden was a sure fire HOF, so were many players whos cards are now worthless.

the way i see it, Babe Ruth is the best player of all time and will always be. nothing can change that.

Trout is great but I always like Ruth, Cobb, Cy, The Big Train and Matty.....for me, almost in that order (though Cy and Walter could possibly be switched.)

Yes, with patience you can get a really nice looking, if not high grade, Goudey Ruth, T205 Cobby or T206 Red Cobby. I think my fave pre-war cards are the ones I have reacquired (so far)....R319 Ruth-144, E90-1 Young-Boston and T205 Cobby (still on the hunt). Good luck in making the decision and then the hunt!!

How about a Wagner? You could get a nice M101-4 for $2k.

Tom C

I don't think any card of a current player is worth that much as there is so much risk for injury or something else (like all the examples you mentioned). I have seen so many people lose big money on modern cards that I stepped away.

I don't think you will get one response on this side of the board supporting the Trout over players like Ruth, Gehrig or Cobb. It's just safe money.

No matter what the market is those three stay fairly stable. I don't trust modern till they have been enshrined and for a few years after too till the pricing settles. The manufactured scarcity cards have yet to prove long term stability in any player other than Jordan. I need to see how they perform to make a true decision, but I can't see it in the way modern collectors have consistently shown little interest in collecting players just a few years after retirement.

Jeter is a good one to watch right now. His cards are performing pretty well still, I am watching them over the next couple years to see if the interest starts to wane.

Like someone else said earlier, a lot can happen to him. Look at that sure fire future Hall Of Famer Darryl Strawberry..........Buy vintage HOFers. 1933 Goudy or a nice T206.

Problem with Trout is there are so many issues, so many alleged 1 of 1, so many supposed rookie cards, and rookie cards with color and chrome variations, etc., etc. Seemingly ad infinitum. You could probably open a store and sell just Trout cards. I've seen a place in South Jersey where they have racks and racks and display case after display cases of Trout. Yes, there are a few cards that rise to the top, but not sure any of them will stand the test of time. The Heritage auction magazine had an interesting article on Trout rookie cards last summer. One person's opinion but pretty well done.

None of this to diminish him as a ballplayer. He's amazing. Unfortunately he's the Andrew Luck of MLB.

You have a lot of options with a 2k budget.
One of my personal favorites, #92 Gehrig 33 Goudey. (easily found in a PSA 3 at that price and prob a 3.5)
Another personal favorite is the Cobb Bat Off T206. (really nice example just sold on ebay around 2250)
At the end of the day, those are some of my favorites at that price point... you just have to decide what makes you happy and go for it.

two words
 

Jose Fernandez

Penny Stock or Blue Chip?


That's how I compare vintage to new product.

The way some young prospects' cards are priced, their values will fall if they turn out to be the next Joe DiMaggio.

I think this is a tough call, and as others have said, ultimately you have to decide what makes you happy (e.g., what card or other collectible you would have the most enjoyment looking at over and over again).

I think Trout and Kershaw are really the only surefire HOFer's (under 30), barring some disaster like PEDs or crippling injury. I have a Trout auto myself (Topps Dynasty, not a RC), and that's basically the only modern card that I own. I think he's the real deal. Also, it's really tough to purchase an "iconic" card of one of the all time prewar greats like Ruth, Cobb, Mathewson, Wagner, etc. for $2K while the 2009 Bowman Chrome auto is the best card for Trout (if you somewhat ignore all of the different parallels). There are some low grade prewar options of very popular cards that you can pick up for $2k that you may still be able to find with decent eye appeal such as 1933 Goudey #144 Ruth, T206 Green (or Red) Cobb, E93/94/98 Cobb. Of course, the big advantage with the prewar cards are that the players careers are already over. They're in the HOF and widely acknowledged as titans of the game.

More contrarian arguments against Trout. Can he reach some of the most hallowed baseball records? Ruth owned both the single season and career HR records for decades. Similarly Cobb was the hit king for over fifty years, and still owns the highest career batting average. One of the reasons that Nolan Ryan is so popular is that he owns the career SO mark. Is Trout someone that can touch a .400 batting average or top the 56 straight games with a hit some time during his career? What notable record or achievement can Trout make his own? Even Cal Ripken has his consecutive games streak. If Trout continues to re-sign with the Angels, can he win any championships or will that always hurt his legacy like Ted Williams? Is he as likeable and popular with the public like Ken Griffey or Clemente? Or is he more like Bonds and Mays? Finally, when theoretical all time teams are assembled, would he be your CF? Or would Mays or Mantle be chosen instead?

If you do decide to go with the Trout card, imho, I think you should go w/ one of the #'s ones. There are so many different parallels, who knows the actual print run of the non-#'s version.

You need to ask yourself why you feel the need to buy the Trout. Is it strictly (or even mostly) because you think he'll be the best of his generation and the prices will only go up from here? Is it strictly a financial move? Speculation to flip later, or you just want to own it?

Personally, I don't put any real money (and I consider anything over $50 real money) on current players, for the exact reason companies prefer fictional characters as spokespeople over real humans....too much room for disappointment. Babe Ruth will never disappoint you.

I love Trout and Kershaw. I would probably go with the notion that they are sure fire hall of famers, but I would have said that same about Dale Murphy or Don Mattingly. I think both are priced accordingly and I don't know that there's that much upside. Modern production further complicates things. To be honest, I think modern cards are relatively limited even in comparison to the 60s or 70s (high numbers being the exception) but people only care about the auto relic.

If it were my money and I wanted to go modern, I think I would buy Bryce Harper. He had an off year because of injury, but there is a reason for his off season. He just turned 24, which is the approximate age of the sweater I am wearing, and already has more than 120 Home Runs and 600 hits. Plus you can get his 500+ deadlift for a fraction of what you can get Trout for.

I have absolutely no problem putting the money into vintage cards, but your ceiling will probably be limited. The buy what you like sentiment is right on.

I agree with the "buy what you like" notion, but if a significant drop in value will hurt the like-ability factor for you, then stick with a card that is much less vulnerable to that, which would be an elite HOF'er (Ruth, Gehrig, Big Train, Cy, Cobb, Wagner, DiMaggio, etc). 2k can get you a *very* nice card! A 1920s Exhibit of Ruth or Gehrig would be ideal.

I second the T205 Cobb suggestion - you can get a decent PSA 4 in the 2k range.

Have you considered regional issues? You can get some significant cards for less than the national issues. Here's a very nice 1954 Johnston Cookies Aaron rookie in a PSA 8 that sold in late 2016 for less than 2k:
http://milehighcardco.com/mobile/lot...on_psa_8_nm_mt

They probably won't increase in value as much as the national issues, but they can be attractive and significant cards.

how about a nice vintage card and a nice auto of a second tier superstar auto rookie (Harper, McCutcheon, Bumgardner) who has a shot at becoming first tier? I actually picked up an auto McCutcheon rookie / jersey numbered 1/50 for $75 or so.

In my opinion, possibly uninformed, the possibility that he will end up the greatest player of all time is already reflected in his card prices. In other words, they reflect mostly speculation, not his career accomplishments to date. So how much upside is there really, everything else being equal?

$2K and a little patience will get you a T206 Cy Young Portrait PSA 4 or 1933 Goudey Gehrig PSA 4

*Classic sets

*Young's wins record is untouchable + he will always have his name on the award

*Gehrig is simply transcendent

Trout vs vintage
 

Babe Ruth, Cy Young, Lou Gehrig, and Ty Cobb will never go down. No brainier in my opinion.

Hi Carl, just a few things

You are asking primarily vintage guys about modern!

The modern day Juice crew of Bonds and Clemens was probably a good pick up a few years back, now that have actually have a chance of making the hall, prices have picked up. Bonds tiffany, and clemens 84f in particular


Be diligent in looking for a card, and be ready to pounce on a good deal. That being said try not to make your one big purchase...in January!

You could definitely get an iconic card, be it in rough shape, for 2k. However, most of these would be a blue chip investment, and would go up over time, but wouldn't have any wild swings. Aside from a handful of cards, and some outlying sales in the last 20 years, these have remained stable. The would be a solid investment, but would probably only keep up with the rate of inflation which is still better than a savings account!

I would think that a 2009 card for 2k doesn't not have much upside. That being said the same people said this about Pujols and now I believe it has gone through the roof. I would say if you are looking for investment potential, try one of the lesser tier rookies, new generation. The guys from Blowout seem to harp on Goldschmidt as being undervalued. Although if he tanks, the card might be worthless, there is more upside potential that Trout who is on everyone's radar, and certainly won't take 2k to get something number maybe 1/1.

Wow, thanks for the excellent perspective and suggestions. I think my desire to land the Trout Bowman was to have just the one iconic rookie card in perfect condition of one of the best ever. The thought had crossed my mind that the potential appreciation was already baked into the current prices. My goal here really is to both to have the icon in my personal connection while at the same time having it appreciate should I ever have to sell. All of your suggestions are excellent and I will likely look to buy one of the legends named in the thread and maybe go lower tier on a modern rookie...last year my big purchase for this $$ amount was a 52 Mathews, and really want to get something similarly fantastic for the PC. Thanks again, everyone.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk