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The Death of Direct Sales
Posted By: <b>Bruce Dorskind</b><p><br /><br />It is perfectly clear to us that the current stock market conditions will make it <br />nearly impossible to sell high priced baseball cards other than through auctions.<br /><br />Most card dealers, with a very few notable exceptions, have very little cash.<br />They attempt to carry limited inventories -especially when said inventory <br />includes rare, expensive and somewhat obscure items.<br /><br />Dealers are afraid to buy an item at any price approaching true market value.<br /><br />We have also found that some prominent collectors, whilst refusing to buy an item<br />outright for $1200 were perfectly willing to pay $1450 + a 15% buyers premium<br />in an auction less than six weeks after they had an opportunity to buy the same card<br />for 33% less than they ultimately paid.<br /><br />As you know, we predicted a depression back in March and a stock market at 8500.<br /><br />We now see the market closing the year at closer to 6300. Unless the new President<br />takes action in partnership with the current administration on the day after election<br />day this depression will make the 1932-36 look like a cake walk.<br /><br />We see a dramatic slowdown in card sales because sellers, unless they are desperate,<br />are going to wait to put their rare and high priced items in auction.<br /><br />While there will no doubt be a few quiet trades, we expect to see a 33% drop in high<br />grade cards between now and April 1, 2009. It is sad, unfortunate, but mark our<br />words, the depression is going to cause everyone to suffer.<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List
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Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>C'mon Bruce, aren't you guys rich? Think of all the great buys to be had from people who need to eat, pay for medicine, pay the rent, etc. There'll be rare cards a poppin' and for a fraction of the current prices. Happy days! <br /><br />Best of all, you boys'll be able to walk in with your dates on Saturday night to any restaurant in town and get a table right away. <br /><br />Remember, it's only a Depression if your job is lost; otherwise, it's a fire sale!<br /><br />Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- I certainly hope you are wrong. The market is down 1800 points in the last four days but at some point it has to level off. It already has affected the card market.<br /><br />Maybe it's not the best thing to be predicting a depression. We might just pull out of it yet.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>Those who worked on Wall Street will be fine...you know why you don't see any of them jumping out of windows? Because they are all rich beyond belief....they screwed away our money while taking theirs. Lehman brothers still intending to give out over a billion dollars in bonuses while going through bankruptcy??? That's outrageous. AIG officials taking a 1/2 million dollar junket less than a week after receiving a federal bailout??? These people are sick.
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Hopefully when President Obama takes office he will implement a new set of tough rules to keep all these scoundrels at bay. It won't be easy- he will have a very difficult job on his hands.
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Posted By: <b>Bruce Dorskind</b><p><br /><br />Adam<br /><br /><br />We never have a problem securing a reservation at any restaurant we want to visit/<br /><br />As for rare cards- we think all but the most desperate sellers will think<br />twice before placing any significant piece on the market.<br /><br />The hobby, particularly at the ultra high end, is addicted to auctions.<br />If one or two of the four whales pull back (for any reason) the ultra rare <br />high end card market could fall by 30-50%<br /><br />Low priced cards (under $100) are not likely to be affected.<br /><br />Middle priced, middle grade cards have already fallen significantly<br />and are likely to fall another 30%.<br /><br />So many Board Members have longed for the day when collecting cards<br />was a hobby again -like it was in the early 1970's- thanks to a series<br />of "perfect storms" they are about to have their wish granted.<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>You may be right Bruce, but I think cards priced less than $100 will take a harder hit than the ultra high grade cards do because most of those cards are held by people who can afford to get through a recession or god forbid a depression.
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Posted By: <b>David R</b><p>Only kings, presidents, editors, and people with tapeworms have the right to use the editorial "we."<br />
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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>Dan, <br /><br />That "junket" story isn't what it's made out to be. It was the reward in a year end sales contest for their independent sales agents. Most of the attendees were NOT AIG employees, but instead, independent agents who can sell any brand they want. <br /><br />They only AIG employees there were a handful (7-8 I read) of managers from Sales who were there to thank these independent contractors for a job well done. <br /><br />And before anyone jumps on the "job well done" phrase, this was the Insurance division which has performed extremely well, not the Financial Services division which caused the downfall. <br /><br />This was booked far in advance and the room cost, which was more than 50% of the total, would have had to have been paid, even if they cancelled. <br /><br />I was as outraged as you at first, but when I looked into it, I calmed down. If they renege on a contest prize to Independent Insurance Agents, they could close their profitable division next year as these guys would all sell something else.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>I think at this point "we" all should get over Bruce's use of the "royal we". We know he's going to use it, we know he's not going to change. We need to adapt and get on with the business of this chatroom. We passed beating a dead horse at least a year ago.
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Most collectors will cut back, but will still try to hang in the hobby. I think the lower priced cards will be rather popular as a result.<br /><br />The high end ones always end up with a very thin group of buyers, and as Bruce correctly predicts, if one or two drops out it will have a major impact.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>Barry, I don't think those people (the whales) are going to drop out...when they're paying $200,000+ for Ty Cobb bread cards they've got money laying around to get them through whatever comes our way. And they aren't going to sell off if the market falls. Those people holding collections full of $100 and less T cards may have to sell off if they lose their job.<br /><br />As far as my earlier AIG comment goes if indeed what Jim VB says happened (and I have no reason to doubt) - they should have postponed it or put it off altogether.
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Posted By: <b>Dave</b><p>Card values, like home values and everything else have to stay relative to the economy.<br />So when it takes a hit "we" should understand that cardboard isn't teflon.<br /><br />This is the biggest market correction in the history of the country and it's everywhere. Maybe that's why I don't have America's Toughest Want List because I'm of the mind that when you need 4 or 5 people involved to make something profitable you're dooming yourself. I am a collector for enjoyment not value.<br /><br />Let's face it the economy was due for this. But it's not going to last like it did in the 30's.. the economy reacts to things about a million times quicker than before. You're seeing people take their profits and sell out of fear right now (which kind of mirrors your posts of late Bruces)<br /><br />Smartest words to live by.... Where there's blood on the streets, BUY. <br /><br />And don't worry about the Wall Street upper-level guys (because there are just as many hard working low-level people there that didn't make these decisions, so remember that)... they are gonna get theirs because the people will demand it. <br />
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Dan- they may have enough money, but over the years I've been in the hobby I've seen many of them burn out. When Copeland quit he still had plenty of money; he was just worn out by the process of buying too much too fast.
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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p><a href="http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?post_date=2008-10-08&id=14155" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?post_date=2008-10-08&id=14155</a><br /><br />This part of the story won't get much coverage. It doesn't work for angry politicians.
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Posted By: <b>Dave F</b><p><br />"Hopefully when President Obama takes office he will implement a new set of tough rules to keep all these scoundrels at bay. It won't be easy- he will have a very difficult job on his hands."<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Oh lord...<br /><br />
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Dave- thanks for noticing. Thought I would get that into the conversation.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>Burnout will not be the reason to sell...if anything the whales will be smelling the blood in the water...I'm not sure what the deal was with Copeland...was he even interested in baseball collectibles beyond their value? The Whales have competition (the registry)...and some from what I know of them actually are interested in the history of baseball too.
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Posted By: <b>Dave</b><p>I agree some people holding $100 T cards might have to sell off... but the flip side of that like Barry pointed out is that in the long term it will attract more people to the hobby, which ultimately means the next cycle of price growth...
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Dan- there is an interesting story about why Copeland quit that may not be that well known. The main reason was he just had enough- he was getting calls from dealers on a daily basis and it was becoming too much. But there was also a baseball card store in his hometown of San Luis Obispo, and the owner was murdered during a robbery. It was too close to home and he worried about his family's safety. Now that's how the story was told to me, so I can't vouch for every detail, as I did not know him personally.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>He quit because he wasn't getting daily calls to buy cards and memorabilia? Sounds like obsessive compulsive behavior.
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Posted By: <b>Steve Dawson</b><p>If I remember correctly, most, if not all of the "whales" are doctors and lawyers. They'll undoubtedly be able to weather the coming storm better than the rest of us since their services will always be needed, and their jobs are relatively secure.<br /><br /><br />Steve
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>He was getting daily calls from several dealers, and I'm guessing at some point it dawned on him that they were taking advantage of him.<br /><br />Admittedly it is different today, as people who buy at auction do so by their own choice.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>Interesting Barry...I guess I know relatively little about that whole episode in our hobby beyond the big sell off.
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Copeland only dealt with a handful of dealers, and I was not one of them. I never met or spoke to him. But I was able to sell a great deal of material to him through a couple of those dealers, always at very high prices.
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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Dan,<br /><br />Lehman Brothers didn't pay over $1 billion in bonuses in bankruptcy--Barclay's did-- who bought them.<br /><br />Why shouldn't Barclays who bought Lehman Brothers be able to pay what they want to people?<br /><br />I think its a great time to buy cards.<br /><br />Have not seen the cards I am bidding for go down in price--lots of bidders.<br /><br />Just sold 400 dupes and off-condition cards and got good prices across the board.<br /><br />Hobby is healthy.<br /><br />
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I don't know if the hobby is really that healthy. There seems to be a distinct line in the sand. Some things are still doing well, but others are not. And it's not always easy to predict the market.
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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />You are misinformed--we are not scoundrels--and putting an ultra-liberal in charge is very bad for the country.
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- not everyone is a scoundrel, just some.<br /><br />And I only get one vote. I'm not putting Obama in the White House by myself.
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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Apparently we are heading towards socialism--higher taxes, greater government involvement in the economy and in most aspects of daily life, and away from the things that made the country great.<br /><br />I can't believe the country is doing it but they are. The character of the country is changing and its a shame.
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The character of this country changed in the last eight years. You feel an ultra-liberal will ruin the country; well, we've had an ultra-conservative...is that why things have been going so well?
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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry I disagree.<br /><br />A true conservative would try to reduce Government spending. Bush along with a Democratic Congress engineered huge increases in spending. <br /><br />Obama since he has been in office has been judged the most Liberal senator. Biden is 3rd. Maybe Ayers will be Secretary of State.
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>George Bush is a socialist....you voted for him twice Jim.<br /><br />And giving 2.5 billion dollars in bonuses to a company that went in to bankruptcy is ludicrous. I'm sure you'll disagree, but to a guy here on "Main Street" I think it's bullsh*t.
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Posted By: <b>Steve Dawson</b><p>I think Jim and Barry have pretty much hit the nail right on the head.<br /><br />The problem is the only people we can vote for are ones who are either on the "right", or on the "left". In my opinion, neither choice is good. What we need is to be able to choose someone who is in the "center". No one will champion that change however, since that would require us to have three choices, and would open the opportunity for someone to be elected with less than 50% of the vote (and even as little as 34% of the vote). I know, I know, don't even get started with 2004!<br /><br />For the record, I just feel that of our two choices, McCain is the best, since he's more "centrist" than Obama.<br /><br />Steve
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Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>In recent years Republican Presidents have spent more and created larger debts than their Democratic counterparts. That's not intended as a political statement, but a clarification of facts. Rhetorically, Republicans are the party of economic thriftiness, but rhetoric and practice often don't align.
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim likes to throw around the word socialist, even though we both know Obama is not a socialist, and democracy will be alive and well during his administration.
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Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>"For the record, I just feel that of our two choices, McCain is the best, since he's more "centrist" than Obama."<br /><br /><br />Steve.... great and accurate point - I wish democrats were able to look at it that way as opposed to 'my team' and 'not on my team'.<br /><br /><br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LPG25Wf0aa4&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LPG25Wf0aa4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
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Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>Geez Joe. Two can play at that game.<br /><br />Instead of actors spouting crap how about some real live people who buy into the latest propaganda pushed by McCain/Palin<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KjxzmaXAg9E&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KjxzmaXAg9E&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br />
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>McCain and Palin have been spreading invective that is beyond acceptable in a presidential race. But it is backfiring, and they are sinking faster than the Dow Jones.
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Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>well geez dan.... I though it was on point comedy.<br />meant as comedy.<br /><br /><br />but - if you don't want actors then here you go......<br /><br /><br />about as liberal as it can be reported (ABC not FOX) -<br />I for one am comforted to know that Obama had no idea these things were being said during his 20 years of knowing the man.<br /><br />edit: spelling<br /><br />edit: removed wright video. because I wanted to.<br />
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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>The things I hate most about Presidential elections:<br /><br />1.) Both side are disingenuous. McCain says Obama will raise everyone's taxes and his followers believe him. Obama says AIG wasted $400,000 on a "lavish trip" and people believe him. Palin says she told Congress "Thanks, but no thanks" and people believe her. Biden ... well, Biden says anything and, I guess nobody ever believes him. <br /><br />They are all lies. They think politics works this way. It shouldn't. In the end, we always end up rewarding the guys that tell the best lies. <br /><br />2.) The debate formats have to be "approved" by both camps. End result? There is never any true debate. There is a recitation of talking points. Why can't Gwen say "Gov. Palin, after you told Congress 'Thanks, but no thanks', isn't it true you took the Federal money anyway and spent it on other projects?" Challenge the suckers when they lie! Or at least, let them actually debate each other. <br /><br />3.) Ask each side to lay out their Cabinet/Administration BEFORE the election. I'd like to see who's backing these guys up. <br /><br /><br />I have many more suggestions. I'm going to keep them off of a Baseball Card board. <br /><br />
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Posted By: <b>Rob D.</b><p>Back on topic:<br /><br />I guess Bruce's for-sale posts -- despite the myriad of bumps -- on the B/S/T didn't go well.
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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>Rob, <br /><br />Very funny. The same thought crossed my mind.
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Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>Jim VB....<br /><br />" I have many more suggestions. I'm going to keep them off of a Baseball Card board. "<br /><br /><br />great post! I agreed completely.<br /><br /><br /><br />For a matter of record:<br />in presidential elections - I have voted Democrat, Independent, and Republican. Actually I have voted Democrat more often than any other way.<br /><br />I am not biased by party affiliation.... I just go for the person I like best. I wish others did as well.<br />That is not my opinion about democrats - it is my opinion about democrats, republicans, and whoever.<br />(just in case it seems I am picking on democrats. I am an equal opportunity picker-on'er)<br /><br /><br /><br />
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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Joe- I'm a registered Whig.
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Posted By: <b>Rob D.</b><p>I've said it before and I'll say it again:<br /><br />The majority of folks on this board, who are among the most knowledgeable and articulate when discussing baseball cards and collectibles, are reduced to simpletons when the topic turns to politics.
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Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>Barry.....<br /><br />I thought I saw a William Henry Harrison poster with you in the background. It all makes sense now.<br />
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Posted By: <b>Steve Dawson</b><p>Well Rob, that's probably because politics is pretty simple.....<br /><br />If a politician is opening his/her mouth and words are coming out, he/she is lying.<br /><br /><br />Steve
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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Barry, McCain is dropping like a rock most definitely due to the financial markets blowing up -- and the response of the electorate is to blame the party in power. Hard to disagree with that thinking. <br /><br />To claim that Obama is not a socialist..well...maybe not a card-carrying one. But he is all about redistributing wealth from the people he believes don't deserve it to the people he feels are getting the shaft. Interesting platform he has: he wants America to be the best in the world and for all Americans to succeed; however, if they succeed too much he'll penalize them. Let's not forget that the top 3% of earners pay 50% of the taxes in America. And all those poor people that Obama is worried about don't pay any taxes at all.
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Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Ok, you are all accused of hijacking this wornderful thread and turning it into a political land fill <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Does it really matter who is president? Is McCain going to put a Goudey Ruth in my pocket (slabbed of course)? Is Obama going to get me a green portrait Cobb? I say the politicians have done a wonderful job. Bruce, you're right, with this market CRASH (well it's not yet complete, it's still got a way to go before it's CRASHED) we should finally see the price of card board coming back to levels that were once enjoyed only a few short years ago. For those of you that were able to dump a lot of inventory recently, I salute you! For those people whining and crying about their card board investments taking a dump, just stop it. To me this stuff isn't for investment, it's for ENJOYMENT. I'm going to enjoy buying card board at reduced price levels. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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