PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>bruce dorskind</b><p><br />Earlier today, I had the opportunity to review<br />the PSA Population Report for the 1910<br />Pittsburgh Pirates Tip Top Bread.<br /><br />The report indicated that a total of only<br />6 Cards have been graded.<br /><br />Yet, the Set Registry clearly shows that<br />there are two collections one with 10<br />graded cards and the other with 7 graded cards<br /><br />Furthermore, I own a high grade card <br />which was graded in 2002 and it<br />does not appear in the population report.<br /><br />Why does this discrepancy exist? Are there<br />other sets where such a discrepancy exists?<br /><br />What would you suggest?<br /><br />Thanks for your help.<br /><br />Bruce<br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>On the Pop Report, there are actually two separate listings. One is listed as "1910 Tip Top Bread Pittsburgh Pirates". This is the report you viewed. The other is listed as "1910 Tip Top Bread". The latter appears to have the "correct" population report. I would suggest e-mailing PSA so they may merge the two reports.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Though this is a slight digression from your specific question, pop reports are also not always accurate because cards that are broken out and resubmitted can be counted two or more times.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>barry! this never happens as the graders are 100% accurate so a card will always come back with the same grade <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>bruce dorskind</b><p><br /><br />Thanks for the assitance...didn't realize there was a double listing<br /><br />Bruce

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Dennis- If only we lived in such a perfect world!

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>I have personally ruined the pop reports of each of the graders with some cracking of slabs.<br /><br />And I believe I am not alone.<br /><br /><br /><br />I will say that I heard one of the poeple at SGC say that as policy, they send back PSA tags to PSA on crossgrades (and probably PSA does the same for them).... so the graders are aware of the issue and are doing their part. <br /><br />But do individual collectors send back those little tabs when they do some cracking? I doubt it.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>steve f</b><p>Until a new standard evolves (UV laser/ion/americium watermark?).. Sadly we'll never know. <br /><br />I for one am guilty of cracking and resubmitting, quite often. My uneducated guess, about 50% of total prewar cards are counted twice. Only a small fraction of mine are sent for cross-grading, because SGC rarely upgrades PSA, BVG or GAI.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>I keep the little tabs... there's a small pile of them on a bookshelf right here where I'm sitting. Wouldn't dream of sending them in.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Pop reports are inaccurate, can be misleading, and at best only takes a current snapshot of cards graded. With that said, the intelligent collector can make good use of the pop reports to his/her benefit.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Based on the frequency that collectors and dealers resubmit cards, does the population report have any real value at all? It can give you some vague measure of the rarity of a card, but otherwise seems to be very misleading.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>I agree.<br /><br />It would appear that the Pop reports would overstate how many cards have been graded... <br />and cannot by definition understate the number of cards graded.<br /><br />giving more reason to smile when your card is the only one on the pop report<br /><br />(shameless plug)<br /><br /><img src="http://www.internetville.com/images/albums/userpics/10001/normal_mattyOrange.jpg"><br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Tom Boblitt</b><p>sense could only very LOOSELY be used--especially PSA pop reports. Not to disparage them more than SGC but there are far more PSA (or have been far more) cards cracked and resubmitted by sheer virtue of the fact they grade more than SGC. I'd think a PSA6-7 graded T206 collector should be VERY wary using the PSA pop reports to accurately gauge that census......

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Mike</b><p>I had a situation a few years ago, whereby I gave three rare cards to PSA. Not important which ones. Anyway....one came back a grade 5. A year later it still showed on the report that they had never graded a 5. This was also the case with two other examples I can recall. I still own the cards. A well known dealer took them to PSA for me, on a scheduled trip, and they then added them to the report. I sent several messages myself to PSA, and for the most part, got no response. Now...because they showed no 5, ever being graded, I knew that if I ever went to sell them, this would raise questions from the buyer. I asked PSA, why they were having this problem, again no response. It they had been cards where there were 50 other grade "5's" it wouldn't have mattered so much. I have had this problem a couple times since. or....knowing there were two graded, a specific grade, and then months later, still seeing two graded, not three. This problem, and resubmissions, I give very little credence to the pop reports. I sure wish this weren't the case.<br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>I agree with those that have stated that the pop reports are an excellent GAUGE of what's out there, but there are way too many circumstances that would create bad counts.<br /><br />In the 1938 Goudey set, the PSA pop report indicates that there have been 2,474 total cards graded. It's safe to say that I have submitted 5-10% of those myself, maybe more. I've had cards that I sent back over and over again to get the right grade. One in particular, a HOFer, has received a grade of 4, 3, 2, and been rejected for trimming (never did a thing to the card, I kept resubmitting it looking for the 5 it deserves). So that card is counted in the pop report three times. I've had other cards I've cracked and resubmitted several times, getting the same grade multiple times. <br /><br />I used to have one particular low-grade 38 Goudey card that I resubmitted with every order, as a "control" card (just for my own piece of mind). That card has a heavy number of lower-grades counted in the pop report, and at least half of them are a result of my including this card with every order, just cracking and submitting over and over again.<br /><br />I've also crossed a lot of PSA cards to SGC - maybe 100-150 in total, which is a lot for me. These tend to be the prewar HOFers I collect. Those cards are all reflected in the PSA pop reports, as are the Diamond Stars, W502s, and T205s I've crossed.<br /><br />So I guess this post is just to prove that there's a lot of double-counting in the pop reports. When I submit cards for grading, I want the grade to be accurate, and I'll keep sending the card back until either A) it gets the grade I feel it deserves, or B) it gets the same grade a couple of times and I realize I'm probably overgrading it myself.<br /><br />-Al<br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>can you explain that? when you submit the same 38 Goudey with every order as a "control card" what are you looking for that to tell you about the rest of the order? how severely it was graded, relative to other submissions? Sorry, I'm just not following what you mean<br />thanks!<br />Jason L

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Jason, all it means is that I'm a psycho. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />The card is a nice-looking card, but a technical 3. An OBVIOUS 3. It gets a 3 every time, once in it got a 2. I include it in the submission to show the grader what a 3 should look like, so my 4s and 5s get 4s and 5s.<br /><br />I'm sure this has no bearing on anything whatsoever, but it makes me feel better. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Plus, if the card ever came back with an odd grade, like a 4 or a 1, I'd scrutinize the rest of the order a little more closely, I guess. That's never happened - it's always been a 3.<br /><br />-Al

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Scot</b><p>The Pops are not perfect.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/tmp/1163179836.JPG">

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>psa used to give out a grading voucher or two if you returned a handful or two of "flips".....of course that practice was rather short lived.<br /><br />I was told by one dealer/friend that he and his partner had a trash bag full of them.<br /><br />personally I have returned a few hundred flips over the years to both sgc and psa....it only makes sense from a "protect your investment" point of view...but i could care less anymore and have no interest in submitting to either grading "service"<br /><br />there are also thousands and thousands of mislabled slabs to go along with the plethera of errant data that the respective grading companies keep<br /><br />.....bottom line...pop reports aren't even close.<br /><br />and BTW ..the four psa slabbed D322's i have are labeled "1910 Tip Top Bread"

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Al- if I understood you correctly and you resubmitted a card that started as a 4, then came back a 3, and finally a 2, and you have experienced this many times, then the grade a card receives is meaningless. If PSA got it wrong two or three times per card, I could do that too, even with one eye closed. The whole thing is just so silly.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Barry, that particular example is an extreme one, perhaps I didn't articulate it well. It did happen to me, just recently actually, but that's the only yime I've submitted a card four times with four different results. I can't for the life of me see how this happened; the card was a sure-fire 4 and looked better than the 5 I had, so I resubmitted the 4 looking for a 5, and the grade has gotten worse with each submission. There's a big picture of it on my blog: <a href="http://www.swingbattaswing.com/page13/page13.html" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.swingbattaswing.com/page13/page13.html</a><br /><br />More often, I'll get a card that I think, for example, is a 6. I submit it and it grades a 5. The first thing I assume is that I missed something - maybe a wrinkle or a corner ding, or some sort of surface flaw. So I'll examine the card closely in the holder and see what I can find. If I can't find anything, I'll crack it out and examine it again, then resubmit it. I'll usually resubmit a card only once, unless I'm absolutely certain it's not getting the right grade.<br /><br />I should also note that 1938 Goudey is the only set I collect where I'm particularly conscious about the actual number on the flip. I already have the set, but I love it so much that I consistently buy new ones if they look better than the ones I have. But that makes me conscious of the grade, there's nothing more frustrating to me than seeing a 7 that's not as nice as my 6. <br /><br />-Al <br /> <br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Jason</b><p>Wow!<br />that;s insane...I thought 4 at first glance, and I know nothing from nothing about trimming, but I can't for the life of me see a PSA 2 grade in that card...If you avg out the grades you've gotten (essentially an AUTH all the way up to 4, you're looking at a PSA 2.25, which, as Barry noted, is meaningless!)...makes me wonder why I am prepping a group for a submission.<br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Ideally if you submitted a card and it came back a 4, it should still be a 4 if you resubmitted it ten times. The fact that there is such a high probability of getting a higher or lower grade leaves me distrusting the whole system. If it's that subjective, then you or I or my grandmother could do the same job. I've been saying this for as long as third party grading has been around.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Tom Boblitt</b><p>that if you sent 200 flips back to PSA, they would be removed from the pop reports? You think they have a few data entry people that have this extra time to remove them from the pop reports? Plus.....that removes the entry and the fact they graded something from the DB. The more removed, while more accurate, reduces the 'prestige' of their service. I may be WAY off base (wouldn't be the first time), but I'd be surprised if ANY of the services (except for PRO) work as diligently at their pop services as they could.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>I didn't mean to hijack Bruce's thread with a statement on grading, I was more just giving examples on why pop reports can be inaccurate. But...<br /><br />I try and understand that there's still a certain amount of subjectivity in grading. The card has some funky left corners, is a bit O/C and has a slight stain at the top (which is much less pronounced in person than it is in the scan). When I bought it, I thought it's a definite 4, but could also be a 5 on a good day. I resubmitted it, hoping for the good day. Since then I've been resubmitting it, hoping to get the 4 again!<br /><br />So Barry, sure, in a perfect world, every card would get the same grade every time. But there's still plenty of room for judgement calls at all points in the grading scale. There's so much room for how eye appeal can impact a technical grade, and I can usually live with that. I've had some submissions where the cards were dead-on what I thought they would be, and others where they were so out of wack that I couldn't get a handle on it at all.<br /><br />Either way, I don't have this problem with the rest of my collection. Only with the 38s. But to stay on topic, it definitely is an example of how flawed the pop reports can be. I use them as a gauge, nothing more.<br /><br />-Al<br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>Pop Reports are a decent tool for mainstream issues with large sample sizes per card. They won't tell the whole story, but often they will give you solid information.<br /><br />They are a lot more useful than the SMR.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>i hear what everyone is saying about accuracy of pop reports...i have a thought. now think about this...IF someone cracks open a card, let's say a mint 9...whether or not it still resides in a holder, it has been acknowledged as a mint 9 card by a recognized grading service...so it is still a mint 9 card...even though it has been cracked-out, the card still exists on the planet, but it merely has been shed of its plastic holder...if the pop report before the cracking-open session was 3 (three) mint 9's...does anyone here still believe there are 3 mint 9's...are do you think there are now 2? the third card still is out there, so the pop will remain accurate...NOW, if the flip (which i never understood why it's called a flip, becuase the information is on the front side, not the "flip" side, but that's for another thread) is sent back to the grading company and is removed from the pop report, does that make things accurate by now saying there are 2 mint 9's...when in reality there are 3? food for thought...

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>lies in the pop reports being for "graded" cards. For all anyone knows there may be 15 mint 9's out there only three of which have been graded. Once it is released from its entombment it no longer is a "graded" 9 but certainly remains a 9.<br /><br />Edited to remove a word that was perceived to be something that was not intended.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Considering that if the pop report says there are 3 mint 9s in your example, but there are probably umpteen more raw mint cards out there in circulation, I would answer your question "No", the pop report is not accurate. There are now two mint 9s, and umpteen-plus-one raw, mint cards.<br /><br />The pop report doesn't cover the whole universe, just the universe of graded cards in that holder.<br /><br />-Al

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>pop reports obviously just cover "graded" cards, there is no way of determining how many cards are out there raw, OR even if they are authentic & un-altered...just thought it would be an interesting/fun way of looking at the topic...

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>If there are 3 PSA 9's out there of a certain card, and one is liberated from its holder somewhere during its travels, then there are only 2 PSA 9's out there. <br /><br />It could be that a certain card only appears in nature in mint condition, but it's not a PSA 9 unless PSA says so. That is the essence of what you are paying for in a grading service<br /><br />of course, to get more existential about it, I suppose that if beauty is in the eye of the beholder, every card is perfect for somebody, regardless of condition, and then we may be forced to say that the number of mint cards is infinite, and therefore unknowable? Hey, I think the value of my pitiful little collection just became priceless!!! I like this <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />(edited to add last paragraph)<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Would anybody really have the nerve to spring a 9 free of its holder?

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>I've done it. I've broken out a few 10s, too. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Nothing ridiculously expensive, though. I don't own anything ridiculously expensive.<br /><br />-Al

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I suppose you could pop out a Wade Boggs rookie. How about a 1938 Goudey DiMaggio PSA 9? I'll guess those are always left in their holders.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>I'd never crack a card of that stature, no. <br /><br />But I'll never own one, either. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />But cards like that have surely been crossed from holder to holder, skewing the pops.<br /><br />-Al<br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Brett</b><p>I don't see how anyone can take the pop reports seriously because of people cracking the cards out and getting them graded again and again.... <br /><br />I've never done this because i've never sent any cards to get graded <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>the use of "mint 9" in my example, was just that, an example...could've just used a "vg 3" instead...just a hypothetical situation...<br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>I can't imagine, for example, that many people are cracking out T-206 PSA or SGC 8s. I think, depending on the specific grade you are talking about, you can have more/less confidence in the accuracy of the Population Report.<br /><br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Dan Kravitz</b><p>Theoretically… Collectors will not crack them out in an 8 or 9 holder, but rather cross over to a favored company with out breaking the case.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>First off, Al, your blog is hilarious and fun to read. Second, here's a question for the board: what is the most expensive card you've ever paid for that you cracked out and had resubmitted?

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>The pop reports may not be accurate but they are an excellent gauge of relative rarity in high grade in the most popular pre-war and in all 50s and 60s mainstream sets.<br /><br />The pop of a card is the number one driver of value. Look at the T206s--the price of psa 8s in auction is directly correlated to the pop.<br /><br />In the mainstream 50s and 60s sets, all have cards that are a lot tougher than others. Why does a 62T Landrum in psa 8 go for more than a Mantle? It all reflects the pop.<br /><br />Earlier in my career when I would argue that a stock shouldn't be trading where it was to a portfolio manager he would say "tell it to the market".<br /><br />For those of you who think that the pops provide little if any value, "tell it to the market". Obviously it thinks differently.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>jay wolt</b><p>To me the Pop reort has "value" when few cards are graded<br />of a particular issue. If someone has a PSA-9 1957 Topps <br />that has a pop of 4 listed, the pop is probably pretty accurate.<br />If the same card in PSA-7 form has 231 examples listed, who knows <br />how many times a card was cracked and resubmitted or if it came<br />initially from an SGC holder.<br />PSA & SGC does have pop's listed all over the place<br />but it still beats GAI who doesn't release that info<br />to the public...jay

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>so true, but don't you think its far easier to argue that a stock is mispriced than to make that case for a trading card, given the differences in the relative liquidity and available information of the markets in question?<br />

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>I do.<br /><br />But, in psa 8 and higher the pop is an excellent indicator of value--suggesting in part that people don't break out 8s that often and perhaps because of that collectors put a lot of faith in the pops.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>scott brockelman</b><p>I think more of the higher end cards get resubmitted than mid & low grades, reason being most 7,8,9 cards cannot easily be distinguished from the next grade, which is why so many people will roll the dice and try it, this is the essential mentality of slab crackers, whether it be cards or coins. They try to get the "tweener" into the next highest holder. There is no reason to resubmit a 4 or 5 or even a 6 as usually they pretty much look the assigned grade.<br /><br />To use your low pop example of 4 eights, obviously a very tough card, whatever the issuse, however it may actually be even tougher as the same card may have been submitted 1-2 times in hopes of getting a 9. THUS the low pop cards are possibly even rarer than the report reflects.<br /><br />Scott

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- I agree that there is no question the higher end cards are valued almost solely on their pop reports. However, down the road there may be a greater knowledge among buyers that these numbers may not be accurate. It's unclear however whether that information might adversely affect their value. If a card has a low pop, mentioning that will get you the highest price for sure. In your example, if a common sells for more than a Mantle, then its the pop first, the grade second, and oddly, the player last.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>If the value of the pop report is in the rarity of the high end cards for the registry builders doesn't it dramatically affect values when cards are resubmitted, thus doubling or tripling the pop? I would also think that it might affect the price a seller could get for his card if someone thinks there are more out there...<br /><br />The most "significant" card I have that was cracked and resubmitted is my Aaron rookie, which went through PSA 3x by the dealer who eventually tired of the quest for an 8 and sold it to me as a 7. <br /><br />I've cracked out a bunch of PSA and GAI cards (and a few SGC cards); never occurred to me to return the flips. Maybe they should put a 5-cent redemption value on them like soda cans. of course we'd then see bums digging through the trash outside Scot's house looking for flips to return <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />I've never cracked out a PSA 7 or 8 card but I have submitted a number of PSA 7 cards to SGC to cross over and in nearly all cases received an 86 on the cards.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Martin Neal</b><p>I know this doesn't mean squat, but I just checked the pop reports and psa registry for Chase white psa 8. The pop report says there are eight graded at this level and I found 7 listed in the psa registry. I only checked the registries that I thought might contain this card and I found 7 listed. I checked this particular card because only because it is the only 8 that I have.

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Adam's point is well-taken. As an example, for the 55 Topps set, the rarest 8 for the longest time had been Art Fowler. The card had usually sold for about $1500 to $2000; suddenly the pop went up a bit and it is no longer the raretst 8. The price has since dropped to between $1000 to $1250. Who knows if a raw card was recently graded or perhaps someone was trying for a 9 and resubmitted?

PSA Population Report- How Accurate?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>There really should be some way for PSA to distinguish a card submitted for the first time from one that is just being recycled. With so much of the value of a card depending on the pop report, it is imperative that this information be as accurate at possible. At present, nobody has a clue if a card with a pop 8 has eight known examples or four known.