I know I shouldn't be suprised
 

. . . but still amazes me when I see a high end card on PWCC that someone just bought at an auction house 10 weeks ago. Guy buys a $20,000 card in May at an AH and then immediately flips to PWCC? PWCC takes 8% of a card over $5,000, so this dude assumes the card has gone up so fast that he'll clear some coin on this? Is this really a viable business model I'm missing out on?

Lots of questions could be asked of this business model.

Maybe it works? Figure that blows up in your face once or twice and you'll find a new game to play.

By the way, here's the dude leading on the Gehrig PWCC auction I've been watching, ending tonight:

30-Day Summary
Total bids: 51
Items bid on: 28
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 94% Help
Bid retractions: 0
Bid retractions (6 months): 5

5 retractions in 6 months? Mmmmm. Makes ya think, no?

Bid retractions are a black mark, to me, on ebayers. When I see more than about 1, I am suspicious.

.

Under what conditions can I retract a bid?

Whether you can retract a bid depends on the circumstances and timing of the bid. You can retract a bid for the following reasons:

You accidentally entered the wrong bid amount due to a typographical error. For example, you bid $99.50 instead of $9.95. If this happens, you need to reenter the correct bid amount right away. Changing your mind does not qualify as accidentally entering a wrong bid amount.

The item's description changed significantly after you entered your last bid. For example, the seller updated details about the item's features or condition.

You can't reach the seller by telephone or email.

HOW COULD THIS POSSIBLY HAPPEN IN GOOD FAITH TO SOMEONE ONCE A MONTH? PARTICULARLY TO SOMEONE WHO HAS A FEEDBACK TOTAL OF 62?

There is a separate thread where PWCC is trying to work with ebay to crack down on these shenanigans, but there are at least a couple of ways where this can work.

(1) Buyer consigns a 20K card bought in May from an AH. He consigns it to PWCC (or some other AH / consignment shop). During the auction, he "creates a 25K hidden reserve." He does this by creating a dummy ebay account or having a friend bid for him for this card to $25K. If the bidding clears $25K, consignor makes a profit. If it does not clear $25K, dummy account or friend does not pay for item. Card is returned back to consignor unsold with no fees paid. (For insurance, he should have a separate account bid just under $25K so that any Second Chance Offers will also be rejected.)

(2) Same scenario as above, but consignor has two dummy accounts bid the card up to $25K. Consignor wins the auction, and pays for the card, and eats the $25K * 8% fee. However, this card now shows as a sale at that new price point in VCP. He then uses that price to sell this card to another buyer for a profit using VCP data during the negotiations.

Another prick bidding on high dollar cards.

That business model only works in an bull market; a robust one at that. If he's gaming the system (shilling/manipulating), then his odds of making money are in his favor.

Seems like a lot of effort for little reward, and lots of exposure to the downside. Couldn't do this on a small scale; would need to spread your risk far and wide and have lots of helpers.

The common denominator in these auctions is a winning bidder who wants the card so bad he pays 2-5X VCP. We'll be hearing from these "victims" in a few years and how they were duped into overpaying for their cards.

Whether it's PWCC or anyone else, if someone arrives on the scene the night a high ticket item is ending and all of a sudden takes the lead in the bidding with (1) limited feedback and (2) more than 1 retraction in the last 6 months, I'm out. Someone's yanking the chain a little too hard.

FYI, there are also legitimate bidders who try to mimic shilling to try to scare away other bidders and win cards for a lower price. So you never know...

Bid what you are willing to pay and go to dinner. Take in a movie. Play a few tunes. Hang out with family, the kids, grandkids. Take a trip. Eat a peach. With my memory I would probably forget to do followups and all that other nervous crap. Have in the past, several times.

Im not sure which card you are referring to, but as fast as the market has been changing on a few cards I could see this paying off. Especially if it's a psa 9 Reggie Jackson, Frank Robinson, Gibson RC, or something similar.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...b61857979f.jpg

Wow!
 

PWCC auction Monday. So many, and with such astronomical prices! Yalsa! 9 Koufax rc's, 5 Clemente rc's, "common" 1969 basketball PSA 9 & 10. All these just absolutely blow away the prices on T206 HOFers mid/mid high grades. Just amazing! I hope these high rollers know what they are doing. Good luck to them. Sure out of my league. Hey, I picked up a Luke Skywalker Star Wars card, hahaha, for real.

I do find it curious how quickly some of these high end cards are changing hands. If you recall the Cobb run from Kickitup, all PSA 8s, I believe that at least three are up for auction with Memory Lane and maybe the fourth is with Heritage, but I didn't check that cert. Seems like only weeks ago we were all admiring or commenting on those.

Now is a good time to sell these. I let go one of my favorite, "permanent" collection cards recently myself. These high value cards have gotten to prices that I just cannot imagine are sustainable, so why not profit now and then buy them back later when the bubble pops?

Precisely my argument when Google broke $100. Didn't work out too well.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeah, not the same.

yeah but that doesn't excuse retractions

Yup! 3 of his T206 8s are set to go to auction. The green one is not there but was being shopped around. http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=220412 I am shocked (insert tongue in cheek smiley) that Justin is letting go his cornerstone cards...(see his post 7 on the above thread).

:D Naw. Fighting other battles right now. Life is too short.

Peace out.

this guy?......

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1933-Goudey-...p2047675.l2557

Yep. Bought in May for $19,000. Looks like that flip didn't work out.

"For your information, there are also legitimate bidders who try to mimic shill bidding to try to scare away other bidders and win cards for a lower price. So you never know..." Gary Chen's quoted explanation is right-on.

Keith Temple's advice is sound and good---do it!!

Very well expressed by both gentlemen. ---Brian Powell

.....unless the transaction got cancelled as was suggested.

talk about a guy who sold too early. Imagine what his collection would do with PWCC today???!!!

I doubt your "psych-shill" will catch on. It is a very low percentage compared to real shill bidding and from personal experience it rarely works.

I also have 0 bid retractions, low feedback, and use several small bids. Your advantage is the 100% bid history that is probably with a known seller that gets shilled on a regular basis.

Easy guys, I just ate lunch.

++ This theory is laughable. Mythbusters should tackle this one. Fake shilling to scare about bidders?? Yeah, all those high dollar vintage cards gong for nothing because some millionaire was scared about getting shilled.

The guys buying high $$ cards right now don't give a rats ass about VCP, and they certainly don't care about some rookie acting like a shiller.

Why?

:mad: