2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker
 

Well, it's already that time of year...the Baseball HOF will release its list of new inductees in less than a week. I know there will be lots of diatribe, analytics being thrown around and people saying that "their guy" was snubbed.

But my question is.... How much of a drop-off typically occurs in the final week of voting? I know that traditionally the voting percentages dip significantly in this final week. I just don't recall how much... 75% is the threshold for induction.

As of this writing, Beltre is looking like a lock at 98.8%. Mauer and Helton are both looking pretty good at 82.5%. Billy Wagner appears to be hanging on at 79.5%, but he may be vulnerable. Sheffield (74.7%), Andruw Jones (71,7%) and Beltran (66.3%) look like they'll probably fall short. Utley, A-Rod, Manny and the rest of the field appear to have no shot this year.

So is it just Wagner and Sheffield that are on the bubble? Wagner is in his 9th year of eligibility and it's Sheffield's last shot. Eager to hear others' thoughts...

Here's the easy-to-read recap...

http://www.bbhoftracker.com/

And the full tracker...

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...GrU1OUsbz4WHyU

Andruw Jones was so so (SO) terrible when he was with the Dodgers that it's hard for those of us who experienced it to imagine him in the Hall.

And he walked to the plate to the song "Don't Worry, Be Happy" which just seemed like a joke. If had used a song called "Don't Hate Me, I Really Am Trying" maybe we wouldn't hate him as much.

Beltre is a sure lock. With the exception of Mauer these other guys I don’t think will get in. Jones & Sheffield both imo should not be considered that high in the voting. Wasn’t Sheffield linked to ped’s at one time ? Bartolo Colon may be a surprise as to how high his votes get.

The percentage drop varies by player (and some go up). If you look at the full tracker there’s a row comparing 2023 actual vs pre vote percentages. Helton dropped 6.4% last year from the pre-released tracker to the actual votes, and has gained a net of 0 votes in the pre-released ballots so far this year, so it looks like he will be very close to 75% and hard to predict.

Wagner has a lower total now, but only dropped about 4% last year and has gained 7 votes so far in the pre-released, so he will also be very close.

It's time for Billy Wagner. If the 1-inning guy not throwing 1000 innings in a career is going to hold as "not enough" then it could be a very long time before a closer gets into the hall.

Francisco Rodriguez could use a bit more love, too. It will be interesting to see if he gains steam in 2025+ if Wagner gets in.

The full tracker has tabs for previous years so you can see the difference in percentages of votes players received on ballots released before and after the results were announced. In general, the percent of votes received by someone is lower on the ballots released after the results are announced or never released at all than the percent received on ballots released before the results are announced. However, there are some players that do better so you can't always say for certain what will happen.

Beltre appears to be a lock at this point since he has only been left off of 2 ballots out of 166 reported as of 8:00 AM on January 17.

Mauer appears to have a decent chance since he's at 82.5%, but since it's his first year, there's no way to know how he will do on unreleased ballots compared to the already released ballots.

Helton is also at 82.5%. Last year, he was at 78.6% before the results were released and ended at 72.2% of the total so he went down. Since he's currently a little higher than last year, he may just get in or just miss. However, he needed to gain 11 votes from last year, and so far, he's picked up 4 votes from returning voters and also lost 4 votes from returning voters so no net gain. Of course, the voting pool changes every year, and he has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. All of the above indicates it will again be very close for Helton this year.

Wagner is at 79.5% currently. Last year, he was at 72.3% before results were announced and ended at 68.1% so he also went down. He needed to pick up 27 votes and so far only has a net increase of 7 from returning voters compared to last year and also has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. If the same pattern is seen this year, it looks like Wagner will likely fall a little short.

Sheffield is at 74.7% currently. He dropped from 62.6% to end at 55.0% last year, but since this is his last year on the ballot, his results could be different. He needed 78 more votes and so far only has a net increase of 11, and he's received 8 out of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year which is only 66.7%. I think it's likely Sheffield does not get in this year.

Andruw Jones is at 71.7% currently and dropped from 66.5% to 58.1% last year so it also looks unlikely he gets in this year.

Beltran is at 66.3% and also dropped last year so it looks unlikely for his as well. However, some voters may have decided not to vote for him the first year because of the Astros cheating scandal he was part of but be more willing to vote for him now. Whether it's enough to get him in remains to be seen, but so far, it looks doubtful.

Sheffield's link to PEDs and BALCO is through working out with Bonds, and he has maintained he did not know he was being given a steroid to use and stopped using it when he found out. The link below is to an article by Jay Jaffe and has more information about it:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and...ary-sheffield/

As for Colon, how high do you think he will end up? Currently, he has received 1 vote out of 166 made public so it looks unlikely he will get the 5% he needs to stay on the ballot another year.

Sorry, guys. There's too much contrariness and 20th century in me for me, otherwise I could have refrained from posting...

I saw Sheffield play, I don't think he's HOF caliber, ditto for Andruw Jones (although he could run down stuff in the outfield).

Helton should be in. And A-Rod should, in my opinion. And I can accept Billy Wagner getting in. And just maybe, Beltran.

Seems to me that virtually all of the HOFers who were in when I was a kid, were guys deserving to me in. But I feel like players get voted in now because there is a perception that someone should be going in most all the time.

Larry Yount... he may be the answer. I know I'm in the minority about so many modern players getting in, so maybe the extreme at the opposite end of the my thinking on the HOF spectrum would work. Just vote EVERYONE in who makes it to the majors, and gets into a game. Larry gets in (I'm not hating on him, he could pitch fairly well), and everyone else who gets in a ML game.

Ya'll can get back to talking 21st century HOF stuff. Some of those guys you're discussing will get in. But should they?

Andruw Jones is getting talked about but he was not very good. He was a great fielding centerfielder for a decade but more than anything else he is a 254 career hitter who didn't hit 500 home runs. His 254 average would put him one point above Ray Schalk as the lowest average among HOFers .

All I know is Helton is finally gonna get his due. After watching him in Colorado Springs with the brief stint in AAA and then following his 17 years in MLB with the Rockies. This fan is happy to see him finally get in to the HOF.

After that, cool for everyone else that makes it.

I also saw Billy Wagner during his time with Tucson. That dude could bring it! He was not a reliever at that point in his career, he was in the rotation. The way the ball popped in the catchers glove when he threw. Awesome to hear.

B.T.

Andruw Jones being in or not rests entirely on how much you value defense in center field (and how much you believe in defensive metrics). Among center fielders, he is first in dWAR and 51st in oWAR (between Mike Cameron and Clyde Milan). Together that makes him the eleventh best center fielder according to Baseball Reference, ahead of most of the center fielders in the Hall. For me, he is one of those people who I am not clamoring to be in, but if he gets in, it would not cheapen the Hall.

He won 10 straight gold gloves but didn't win another after his 30th birthday.

I understand the metrics and where they place him, but I don't believe you can be the 11th best centerfielder of all time when your career was more or less over at 30 and you failed to win an MVP.

For comparisons sake, Johan Santana's career was also more or less over at 30 but he won a Triple Crown and two Cy Youngs. Still won't be enough to get him in.

I'd love to see Helton just miss again. He's lost more votes than he has gained from returning voters so far, down -1, which makes it hard to pick up any ground. He's a fringe candidate for me based on his career, but I don't like rewarding a habitual drunk driver. I'd be fine making him wait the ten years if he only had one DUI, but once he got the second and left the scene of an accident too, I had zero respect for him.

People are out here not voting for Vizquel because of a clubhouse incident that affected one person, or Andruw Jones because of his spousal abuse, which I'm completely fine with in both cases. I wouldn't vote for either of them for those reasons. If they were slam dunk cases for the HOF, then I'd withhold a vote for 2-3 years, or one year like people did with Roberto Alomar. Yet people are fine with Helton getting caught twice on the road drunk. Who knows how many times he just risked lives of everyone else around him those days. It's probably in the hundreds judging by the time gap alone.

Please don't defend Helton's actions either, because I won't ever see his side or your side of it. He made nine figures in salary during his career, he could have had a personal driver 24/7. That makes it even worse, but it's not even something specific to him. I have literally one relative out of a huge family with one DUI and the best thing I can say about what they did is that they didn't hurt anyone else with their own accident. Don't drive and drive ever or stand up for someone who does.

Beltre is a sure thing.
I actually don't think Mauer gets in. It took Piazza 4 years and the stats are similar aside from home runs.
Helton I would say does get in.

I am honestly shocked at how strongly Mauer is tracking. To me, at best, he is borderline, no way no how a first ballot.

Beltre....a lock. Just wondering at this point what % he'll land at. Glad I picked up his Savannah Sand Gnats minor league cards when I did. The two people that left Beltre off their ballots should have their voting privileges revoked.

Helton deserves it. Fantastic player. The Coors argument is way overblown.

Jones should be in. Yeah the second half of his career was abysmal, like Miggy's last five years, but the first 10 years, he was a monster of a player. I don't know, at almost 63 overall WAR, 430 HRs, 2000 hits, and 10 gold gloves (by most people's accounts, legitimately owning that position for those ten years), that to me is HOF worthy.

Beltran should be in. Phenomenal player. That stupid garbage can incident.....way too overblown.

Wagner was phenomenal for a long time but closers typically don't get much love. Wonder how Kimbrel will eventually fare. He is in Wagner's territory imo.

Sheffield was a great player but he has the specter of PEDs hanging over him....then again, you have Piazza, Pudge, Bags, and most recently, Big Pappi already in....

1000 career innings seems like a reasonable threshold. I know the way closers are currently used makes it hard to accumulate innings, but that doesn't change the fact that you can't create HOF-level value on the field in 900 innings. I just can't put Wagner's 900 ahead of (for example) Mark Buehrle's 3200. No way Wagner contributed more to winning games than Buehrle.

I absolutely love your stance on drunk driving. The HOF is a complete joke on many levels. I would still like to visit it someday.

I'm not sure I see what others see in Billy Wagner. Capable closer, yes. But what makes him a HOFer? Because he was decent for a while?

There are eight relief pitchers in the HOF. In the last twenty years Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersly, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith were elected.

Gossage pitched twice as many innings as Wagner. Eckersly won an MVP and Cy Young as closer, Sutter won a Cy Young, while Smith, Hoffman and Rivera all held the all time saves mark for a period of time. What does Billy Wagner bring to the table that he'd be in the same company?

And does all that much really separate Billy Wagner and Jonathan Papelbon? I don't think anyone would put Papelbon in.

His workload is historically weak, but in his 15 full seasons only 1 was bad.

7 of those 15 he had a sub-1.00 WHIP. 14 out of 15 he had a sub-1.20 WHIP.

ERA isn't a great stat, but sub-3.00 ERA in 14 out of 15 seasons. For a guy that gets a full inning vs lineups also using up their bench as a last resort it's worth something. He had a sub-2.50 ERA in 9 out 15 (sub-2.00 ERA in 5 out of 15).

The current closer as we know it has only been around since the early/mid-1980s. Unless a failed starter racks up some innings we may never see an excellent closer with more than 1000 innings. "Strong" closers these days might work 1.1ip every so often.

I don't think anyone would complain about having Wagner around during his entire career as their closer...except the Yankees.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, I'm just wondering what makes him a HOFer. Statistically speaking, he is ranked one spot above Joe Nathan, another guy I don't think anyone considers a HOfer.

Joe Nathan was a pitcher with a sub 2.00 ERA five times, with three in a row at one point. His WAR is one less than Wagner's as well with a similar amount of innings pitched.

I just don't see the separation between them where it makes sense Wagner is a HOFer but Nathan didn't get the required 5% last year to stay on the ballot.

Nathan was great (imo), but only for 9 seasons. He earned all 6 of his All-Star nods, and probably deserved at least the 7 that Wagner got.

As far as an early exit, and not to move goalposts or change the subject, but Kenny Lofton deserved a -lot- more than an early exit off the ballot. I don't understand some voters.

Wagner was Mr. Meltdown in the post-season, just horrendous appearance-after-appearance. To me, that tilts him off the ballot.

As much as I like Wagner as a HOF'r, he's not a guy who's hill I'd die on to say he absolutely belongs in the Hall.

That said, he is a guy I strongly believe will get in and I have been hording graded cards of him for a long time. The hobby speculation on him has gotten crazy the past couple years so it's not just me gambling on this.

His 1994 Bowman PSA 9 has been so high the past couple years I've traded a couple because it's already at a rather insane price.

My personal favorite is his 1994 Topps Bilingual. I have 2 and plan on keeping 1 for the personal collection.

Super excited about my man Beltre getting in. An absolute lock

It is an unpopular opinion, but my take is that any known player to use PED's when they were illegal should not be in the HOF.

Yes, I know that eliminates a lot of great ballplayers, but using PED's is their decision and gave them an unfair edge.

Now, if a player was HOF worthy BEFORE they used steriods, I think it
s worth a hard look there. That is the trickiest part to me, that I still haven't thought through fully yet.

The Clemens and Bonds of the world.

It's a hard decision no matter which way you look at it as there are several known PED users in the Hall.

I am very amazed at where Sheffield is currently standing. Jones, too, for that matter, but that's unrelated.

If Sheffield gets in, watch out for a tidal wave of enlarged cranium PED guys.

I am very amazed at where Sheffield is currently standing. Jones, too, for that matter, but that's unrelated.

If Sheffield gets in, watch out for a tidal wave of enlarged cranium PED guys.

Saying I saw Sheffield play and he wasn’t a hall of famer makes me question your mental capacity. If you want to say no because of juice fine but to say he wasn’t a hall of famer based on performance is ridiculous. His numbers don’t lie and would have made him first ballot in almost any era besides the roids era. Again if that’s the reason you say no fine even though I still think that’s absurd I get it but to say he wasn’t performing at a hall of fame level is ludicrous. And makes me think you only want to put in old farts that you saw play when you were young because Sheffield was a stud.

Minus the harsh phrasing, I was thinking the same.

This is a very good point.

Wagner was one of the best regular season relievers ever.
He ranks #1 for any LHP in the live-ball era in WHIP (.998) and ERA (2.31) with a minimum or 900 innings pitches (he pitched only 903).

He ranks #1 for opponent batting average at .187 (no one else is even below .200). He could give up 100 consecutive straight hits and still have a lower opponent BA than Mariano Rivera.

And his K/9 inning of 11.92 is the best ever.

But he was dreadful in the postseason. ERA over 10. He appeared in the postseason in 7 seasons, and lost 7 of 8 series, never making it to a World Series. Other relievers in the Hall of Fame: Fingers, Eckersley, Rivera, Lee Smith, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Gossage have all pitched well in the postseason (with the exception of Lee Smith and to a lesser extent Hoffman), and Fingers, Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera all won World Series.

With Wagner, I think it comes down to how much you value postseason play. If you place a premium on postseason play, he's a hard sell. Otherwise, I think he belongs.

Beltre for sure. Helton I don't feel strongly about but I guess he's deserving. Wagner no but part of that is my feeling relievers as a species are overvalued. Jones, no, Hall of Very Good. Betran needs to wait but eventually I would vote for him.

Not that Schilling is on the ballot, but how do folks on here feel about Schilling. There is a pretty strong contingency to keep the known PEDers out, but Schilling's mouth is what kept him out. I think had he not told the writers in the last year of his eligibility that they are a cesspool, he probably would have gotten enough to get in on the 10th ballot. But he basically told them, I don't need you to vote me in, and enough of them obliged for him to fall short.

Clearly should be in, IMO.

How do you see the Veterans Committee treating him? I can think of folks that were a lot worse that are in the hall ...Landis, Anson are just a few that come to mind.

I think eventually he makes it.

He's going to need vets that didn't play with him or his peers. He wasn't well liked by many players, managers, or front-office guys before his...let's just call it post-retirement hobbies.

The "Wakefield incident" is yet another self-own unforced error for no reason whatsoever.

His skills say 2nd or 3rd ballot HOF'r at worst.

You have to be quite a remarkable person to manage to miss 10 ballots and only get 7 out of 16 votes in your first Vet's Committee vote.

Seems like he thought the Vets Committee would vote him, I remember him saying he wanted to removed from the ballot on his last go around so that his peers could vote him in.

Schilling is a grade A example of the problems with the hall now. Steroids are waived for media favorites (Ortiz), clearly below level players are out in via committees filled with their former managers, owners and friends (Baines), Schilling is kept out for being vocally against media narratives (some of the things said about him being an asshole or right-wing true and some completely fictional and easily disproved), and others kept out over allegations without any public facing evidence and weighing of it (Vizquel, who was trending in and then immediately reversed and won’t ever get in now). We’re in another era where people’s agendas is overweighing any honest evaluation of performance. Historically the Hall has done pretty good, but this seems even worse than the Frisch era where the open corruption was more easily eliminated than the new ideology that merit is not the key component.

I disagree. He hit 58 points higher at Coors than elsewhere (.345 vs .287). In 3% more games (1141 vs 1106), he hit 60% more homers at Coors than elsewhere (227 vs 142). .469 slugging outside of Coors.

Double his road stats and you've got a .287 1B with 284 homers AKA a guy no one would advocate for.

Do you suffer from confirmation bias? It was PROVEN time and time again Oritiz DID NOT test positive for steroids from the age of 29 to 40. Is some corruption where MLB would fail Manny and pass Ortiz being a Media favorite? Honestly, being a red sox fan I am bias, but there was no proof of him ever having a positive test. His name was tied to a list in 2003 of a random screening which was supposed to be anonymous. His best years were after that. I guess he just had access to the better stuff or was able to mask it, when others were still getting caught. Because we was good at an older age, and Dominican, he fits the stereotype.

Sorry but no positive, no PEDS and he was one of the most tested

Giambi never tested positive either. He admitted he used and he used after 2003.

Ortiz was released after the 2002 season. He then signed with Boston at a time when he is said to have failed a test and began a HOF career. It is fair to talk about him in this context the same way it's reasonable to talk about Bonds, who played until 2007 and also never failed a test.

LOL, Didn't Alex Rodreguiz pass ALL tests under the MLB drug testing program?

I think it's reasonable to talk about Beltre too. It never gets talked about but if you look at his career, he tended to play really well in contract years.

His final year with the Dodgers sees him hit 48 home runs, a total he will never really come close to again. He then signs a free agent deal with the Mariners.

His career with the Mariners was pretty average with him never hitting above 300 and topping out at an OPS+ of 112 over his 5 seasons there.

He then signs a one year deal with Boston and hits 321 with an OPS+ of 141 (up from 83 the year before though he was injured) finishes 9th in MVP voting and signs another huge deal with Texas.

All good points...

We watched LOTS of games when Beltre was a Mariner. Great glove, awesome arm... but "warning track power" is a generous assessment of his hitting as a Mariner. Granted, Safeco/T-Mobile is a Pitcher's Ballpark, however he still lacked the "clout". But he's still a sure first-ballot nominee, it seems.

Can you read? When did I say he tested positive between the ages of 29-40? That is not a rebuttal to anything I said lol. When has that been the standard? You can cheat and do anything you want if it was before 29? It doesn't count if the public knows because the positive test leaked? Seems like a brand new standard created to exempt just one person!

Picked up a Beltre 1997 Bowman Chrome PSA 9 this month in anticipation of his selection. Got a bit of a discount because the holder was pretty scratched up, but don’t need resale value. Feel pretty good about it!

Brad

Trevor Hoffman had a 9.00 ERA in the 98 world series with a blown game 3. Wagner should be in the HOF.

So your argument for Wagner to go into the HOF is that Hoffman sucked in 1998?

If it were up to me relievers wouldn't be allowed in the HOF, if they are such great pitchers why do they spend so much time on the bench?

Maybe Smoky Burgess should also go in due to his .288 career average as a pinch hitter?

Hoffman has a 3.46 post season ERA. Wagner’s is 10.03. Wagner’s is 289% worse.

It's as good as any other argument for Wagner. :D

This. Plus 1000