Early Hall Discussion:
 

I think there are 2 shoo-ins and three other deserving candidates of the upcoming ballot:

Todd Helton got of 72% last year and nobody who has received that high a percentage did not get in.

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Adrian Beltre can be viewed as a career accumulator, but 3,000 hits still gets you a golden pass.

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Andruw Jones was arguably the best centerfielder of his time and perhaps the second best ever.

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Billy Wagner, admittedly, is my personal favorite, but was a dominate left-hander closer for an extended period...for closers anyway.

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Joe Mauer actually played almost as many games as a first basemen as he did as a catcher, but he won multiple batting championships and a MVP.

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I agree that Beltre is a lock to get in. While he played a long time, I think calling him an accumulator is a little harsh.

Helton got close enough last year that he probably gets in as well.

Wagner got 68.1% last year so may be close enough to also make it.

If the above 3 get in then I don't think Jones and Mauer do. They both might eventually, but I think Mauer might have a better chance than Jones.

I would love to see Chase Utley eventually get in, but if he does, it will probably take a while.

I think its a big class this year between those you pointed out (I think all of them make it, maybe with Mauer waiting a year or three) plus the Vet Committee (I think we'll get 2-4 from there too)

I think Beltre is definite. Most likely Helton. I think Mauer gets in eventually but probably not this year.

This. I can't see Jones and i think Wagner is destined to fall short.

Helton is a lock, probably this year, with 72%.

Wagner is also a lock, with 68% and 2 years to go. Candidates that reach this level and fall short of the writers ballot are put in by a committee. The question is when, not if, Wagner gets in and if he actually deserves it.

With 4 years to go and 58% Jones is also probably destined for Cooperstown eventually, though I doubt next year.

Beltre will probably get in first ballot next year.

Mauer probably gets in via the writers but not first ballot.

Wagner has one more year on the ballot after this one and I think he's doomed if he doesn't get in now. The next class will have CC and Ichiro on it as first ballots. If Helton doesn't get in this year, he'll pull a lot of votes next year. Same with Mauer. Might not be enough to go around.

It'll be interesting to see how things go for him. He jumped a lot last year with a weak ballot.

I'm not sure K-Rod is a HOFer either but it's interesting he gets such little support but didn't have all that lesser a career.

I love Hall of Fame talk! I think that Beltre is a lock in year one, and it'll be interesting to see how Mauer does. He could squeak in or take a few tries. I also think Chase Utley is a better candidate than many may realize. He won't make it year one, but it'll be interesting to see if any voters agree with me or not.

On the returning guys, Helton and Wagner both belong...be nice to see them get in this year. I don't see any other returning guys making it, but there are several deserving on the ballot.

Here are some write-ups I did on the players on the ballot and their rookie cards...

Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
Chase Utley
Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Billy Wagner

Beltre's first ballot is 01/2024, technically next year, but next ballot for purposes of this discussion.



and, after, two of the three Cuban players I always thought deserved it, got it in (Oliva & Minoso), I hope Luis Tiant, Jr. gets in before he's gone...he may just light up during his acceptance speech...that would be excellent!!
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Todd Helton and after that whoever else.

I may be a bit biased too.

Butch T.

Please allow me to “pump” (new term for me) my favorite Twin.
Joe Mauer played the majority of his games as a catcher during the first ten seasons of his career, from 2004-2013, at which time he met the minimum time needed to qualify for the Hall of Fame. IMO, he earned it then.

As a catcher, Mauer won three batting titles– only two other catchers in MLB history have won any. He batted .300 or better seven of those ten seasons-- once reaching .365-- and more than .290 in two others. During that time he was an All Star 6 times and won an MVP. He also won three gold gloves and led his league in fielding percentage for catchers three times (9th all-time). Back in that era when strikeouts were considered embarrassing and at some level shameful, Mauer walked more than he struck out six of those ten seasons, falling three short (walks vs. Ks) in two others and six short once. Mauer was a .323 hitter in 10 seasons as a catcher with an .823 OPS. One can only wonder what further numbers were reachable if not for the concussion, but I believe the ones just cited make him a HOFer anyway.

For those who don’t recall or did not know, the following is what happened to Joe, as recounted by sportswriter LaVelle Neal:
“On Aug. 19, 2013, Mauer took a foul to the mask off the bat of Mets first baseman Ike Davis. It was a career-altering moment for Mauer that also changed the course of Twins history. Mauer, like several catchers that season, landed on the seven-day concussion disabled list. One week wasn't enough for the symptoms to go away. Two weeks wasn't enough. Or a month. Mauer missed the remainder of the season and needed about two months following the season for the symptoms to finally leave. He was sensitive to light. He was forced to change rooms if one of his twin daughters, about 6 months old at the time, began to cry.

When he returned to spring training in 2014, he was a first baseman. Doctors concluded that Mauer had suffered a severe concussion, making him at risk for worse outcomes if he suffered more. This came after teammate, friend and fellow AL MVP Justin Morneau suffered a concussion in 2010 that also altered his career.”

I know there are other tales of woe for players who could claim "what if", but wanted to make clear that Joe Mauer's move to first base occurred after he had put up HOF stats and that he was one of the brightest of stars of his era--the antithesis of an accumulator.

If it was my ballot, I would immediately vote for:
Todd Helton
Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
Jeff Kent

I would also vote for, since they put in Ortiz and cannot logically keep the steroid line anymore:
Alex Rodriguez
Gary Sheffield

Utley, Wright and Beltran I'd have to examine closer to decide.

Beltran had a pretty good showing in his first year, which bodes well for the future. I don't think this is his year, but think he eventually makes it.

The Best Rookie Cards Of Hall Of Fame Candidate Carlos Beltran

I forgot about Beltran since he was under 50% last year. I think he takes a big jump this year since a lot of voters may have skipped him due to the Astros scandal. I don't know if he'll get to 75%, but I think he'll be at least in the mid 60s.

We've discussed before, but not clear to me why if one card has his name but not his pic, and another card has his pic but the wrong name, the first is considered his RC. I'd rather have the picture.

Yeah, it's an odd one, and not one where I think there's a clear "right" answer, although the hobby clearly has spoken.

I can only imagine that when Beltran eventually makes the Hall of Fame, Fanatics will "buy back" a bunch of these, cut them up, and "fix" the problem. :D

My solution was to buy the SP although not technically a rookie card.

Agreed...while technically a prospect card, it's actually got Beltran on it, in both name and picture. It's also tougher to find than the Topps Traded.

Torally disagree peter. Not really sure how your getting there.

I hope voters turn Carlos Beltran and the other Astros over the fires of hell for cheating. What a joke Rob Manfred is for offering no consequences. What a disgrace they are for cheating like that in the WS. Completely ruined future HOF'er Kershaw reputation and created the "not a big game pitcher" narrative instead.

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Probably wrong. Just feel there's enough resistance to relief pitchers that he may have hit a plateau and won't win over enough holdouts, and his election would open the floodgates as there are a number of guys whose stats are or will end up fairly comparable.

Kershaw has had plenty of bad postseason outings. You can't blame Houston's cheating for all of them.

I think Wagner is a poor candidate, but with 68% of the vote the odds he never gets in are tiny. Has any player ever hit 2/3 of the vote and then failed to eventually be inducted?

Clemens may never get in.

Hadn't thought about him and Bonds. I would categorize them separately, but did not think of that before my statement, so too late now.

With our without Kershaw, they are dog crap on the bottom of Manfreds shoe, and the stench won't go away.

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Yes different situation altogether I agree. Back to Wagner, he also has that wretched post season record, 10+ ERA. Not an asset.

Clemens and Bonds got 65.2% and 66.0% in their last year on the ballot so not quite 2/3. :)

You saved me, by fractions of a percent! Thank you Jay lol. I recall that Gil Hodges for many years had the highest writers vote without getting inducted, by a wide margin I believe, until he was recently selected.







It's rare the writers put in someone I disagree with. The various committee's throughout the years have been a real mixed bag. Wagner would be the first in a long time I think doesn't belong (my objection to Ortiz is not his performance, but the astounding corruption it takes to ignore his steroid use while punishing everyone else).

I tend to think pretty much anyone seriously discussed here will end up making it - as time goes on the committees water it down and water it down some more. The guys like Hodges, Olive and Kaat that had a case but were not great candidates eventually get in once they become the best guys of their period not yet in. When you got top level guys on the ballot these types don't look appealing, but as the committees need to keep electing people and the body of talent available for selection thins out, they have to keep reaching just a little lower.

crowded field this year but I only see Helton and Beltre.
Next year I would say Jones.
I am not a Wagner fan
To me Mauer is borderline but I would not be upset if he was in or not.

IMO

Cheaters can go in after they die (they don't deserve the honor more than Santo or Minoso, etc.) or after I die (cus I won't care then) whichever comes last.

bonds doesn't not deserve to be honored the same way Mr. Aaron was.

Again, lower the standards once I'm gone...I definitely won't give a rodents lower GI track about it.

replies? blah-blah-blah I've heard ALL the other arguments...do not care.

IMO
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I will make the narrow argument that Hank Aaron's accomplishments approach those of Jackie Robinson. I think it is staggering what he did under so much pressure and with so much racial hatred directed toward him. Barry Bonds could have hit 900 home runs; he'll never be Hank Aaron.

How do we know what players from the past would have done had PEDs beein available to them? Aaron took greenies, yes? I think the assumption that players in other eras were morally superior is borne of nostalgia bias.

I can't remember the history book I read, authors last name was Reiss, but his book showed how baseball, gambling, and cheating were connected. Fathers didn't want daughters to date ball players.

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(A lot of fathers today would probably prefer their daughters marry the nice heart surgeon, as opposed to Derek Jeter or A Rod...;)

Rightly or wrongly, players are judged by the standards of the time. I'm not a baseball historian, but I suspect that Pete Rose in the 1920s is a first ballot Hall of Famer. Babe Ruth in the 1980s might have ended up like....Pete Rose.

I suppose that there are some athletes whose legacies are tarnished at that inflection point when standards change and the "everyone else is doing it argument" suddenly fails in the public eye. Lance Armstrong comes to mind, and maybe that also applies to a guy like Barry Bonds.

But I still maintain that Hank Aaron's athletic legacy is far greater than the sum of his statistics. Hank Aaron to me is like Jesse Owens. Carl Lewis may have won more gold medals in the end, but he'll never be Jesse Owens.

Not taking anything at all away from Aaron's greatness, but you are the one who brought Bonds into it. To me Owens and Lewis are both great. What more could anyone have asked Lewis to accomplish? I don't see any need to compare them.

Another poster made the point that Bonds should not be honored in the same way as Hank Aaron.

In response, I argued that Bonds would never be Hank Aaron, even if his stats were clearly better (and, somewhat obviously, if his stats weren't considered tainted because of PEDs).

Now that the ballot has been announced officially, I have done articles about both the new and returning candidates, and their rookie cards.

Cardlines Guide To The New Candidates On The 2024 Baseball Hall Of Fame Ballot

Cardlines Guide To The Returning Candidates On The 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Anyone picking up any rookie cards of these players in advance of the voting results?

Beltre, Helton, maybe Wagner. Own them alrady.

I had to scramble when Mazeroski was elected, then again with Baines, but I'm set on all the possible player candidates. Screw the managers.

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Yeah, it's the guys like Baines and Lee Smith that surprise you and you may have to scramble. The tricky thing with modern guys is there always seems to be another rookie card (or parallel, or minor league card) to grab, so even when I think I'm covered, I end up finding something else to buy.

And I can't get excited about managers either, especially this group. And Execs and Umpires in the Hall of Fame? Meh.

The only time I can get excited about a manager getting in is if they have a cool playing days card. I'm not a LaSorda fan but it's cool he's got that 54 Topps card. And Sparky with his 59 Topps. I like that they were the fringest of major league players but snuck onto cards in popular sets anyway. The Stengel T210 is a huge card but he's also got cool M101s and other misc playing era cards.

Some playing days cards of managers.

That’s what I’m talking about. Those are cool forever. I get much less excited about a “manager” rookie in like 87 Topps or something.

We know that pitchers have always done nefarious things to baseballs, and many hitters over the years have modified (corked) their bats, and there are plenty of stories about deadball era third basemen, like McGraw, tugging at a baserunner's belt to hold him up (when there were only one or two umpires.)

Whether these things can be considered immoral I'm not sure, but certainly they were attempts to gain advantage while operating outside the rules. If old-time ballplayers had access to pills and needles that could make them better and extend their careers, of course some would've gone that route.

I think within an era it's fair to contrast athletes who don't seem to have cheated with those that did (Carl Lewis vs Ben Johnson, Bonds vs Griffey, etc.). But I don't buy the generational comparisons and smarmy assertions that past generations were somehow, as a whole, more virtuous and today's players are scum. My guess is most of the guys who popped greenies also would have done stronger PEDs had they been available.

Nice write-ups. I enjoyed the Victor Martinez bio where you noted that he finished 2nd in MVP voting to Trout in 2014.

I should have used that as a zinger when I was using Vic Mart as a comp for Trout earlier this year. Some were getting a little hangry and testy that I was not showing Trout enough respect. Like Trout, only ardent baseball fans know Martinez's name.

I am not sure the PED/'roids guys deserve to be in the Hall, but to some extent they are a victim of their own success.

PEDs can be traced all the way back to 1889, when Pud Galvin used Brown-Sequard Elixir, which is testosterone derived from other animals, most notably dogs and guinea pigs. Even Babe Ruth tried to inject himself with extract from sheep testicles in 1925. This act only made him ill and forced him to miss some playing time. So cheaters have gotten more sophisticated and better at it over time.

Steroids found there way into baseball in the 1970s. Tom House, a former pitcher for a few teams, was the first player to openly acknowledge that there were 6 or 7 players per team experimenting with steroids and human-growth hormone. Steroids then took a backseat during the 1980s when amphetamines became the drug of choice. Players from Mike Schmidt to journeyman Dale Berra, were using amphetamines.

MLB practically sanctioned the use of steroids with their lack of any testing/enforcement. In 1990, Congress cracked down on anabolic steroids with the Anabolic Steroids Control Act, which effectively made them an illegal drug. The next year in 1991, MLB Commissioner Fay Vincent made it clear in a memo that it was against the rules to use steroids, but there was no plan for testing/enforcement.

If players like McGwire, Sosa and Bonds hadn't completely re-written the record books, few people would care about their "cheating."

While Bonds is probably a reprehensible human, I do feel like he probably deserves to be in the Hall more than most of the other guys from the era. He was the best player in baseball before people started modern 'roids, and was a late mover in terms of starting his cheating in the 21st century after being tired of being left behind by the likes of McGwire and Sosa.

But because Bonds was better at cheating than others, he seems to get punished more. That and the fact that he won't admit he did it, and is generally not well liked.

So cheating has been around forever. They just got really good at during the steroid era.

I think Beltre for sure - he has HOF stats. Helton for sure. And if Utley is a strong candidate, then how can Kent not be? Compare their stats. Kent even has an MVP and bigger power numbers. Fewer injuries too.

Utley has a WAR about 10 higher than Kent which appears to mainly be due to Utley being considered a much better fielder. Utley has a dWAR of 17.3 compared to -0.1 for Kent.