High Bidders Who Overbid on Ebay?
 

Increasing your max bid on Ebay does not require any minimum increment. If a bidder is the high bidder at $99.99, he can then sequentially place bids of $100, $100.01, $100.02, $100.03, etc. for as long as he wants to. The bid count will go up, but otherwise nothing changes. An underbidder seeing a string of overbids by the high bidder could react in several different ways.

1. He could be intimidated thinking the high bidder was out to win at all costs.

2. He could be vindictive and sequentially increase the bid slowly to force the high bidder to pay more.

3. He could be seriously interested in the item and raise the bid in a playful manner to determine if there was any pattern (ie fixed increment) to the overbidders pattern, so as to determine what a successful snipe bid might be without shooting the moon.

There may be other motives for either bidder, either of whom might be accused of shilling with a pattern such as this, but starting another shilling thread is not my intent.

I have considered the string of penny overbids to intimidate other bidders, but have never done it. All it takes is one underbidder, who doesn't even realize he is being intimidated to foil that strategy. Otherwise it just seems foolish to me to overbid multiple times as the end result will probably be a higher price paid regardless of which party wins.

If the high bidder has overbid just over the previous high bidder and below the incremental bid, which is easily determined, a single overbid to establish a new unknown threshold seems like a fair strategy.

I guess my question is how do members react when they see a string of 3 or more bids by the high bidder at the top of the list. Are you intimidated (#1), vindictive (#2), just a playful pattern seeker (#3), or suspect a shill (#4)?

I suppose (#5) should be added for those who place such overbids. And I would ask your reasoning for such bids, if I am missing something.

Added note: My son's PhD thesis was on "Auction Theory", which we discuss from time to time. I guess he's just a chip off the old block.

Frank, if I really wanted the card I would respond with a #3 strategy, trying to guess the pattern and ultimate high bid. I might get carried away and bid more than I had planned. I would have to really want this card, though.

Frank,
Sadly I have reached the point where I assume that almost nothing on ebay is an "arms-length" transaction, so I set a snipe for the most I am willing to pay and move on.

Ditto - no head games for me with ebay.

Sean, I'm with you on #3.

I fully realize there are many one time max bidders with a take or leave it strategy out there.

I also realize that everyone doesn't have time for head games, but the idea of placing a list of overbids just seems to invite curiosity or vindication to the determent of the overbidder, which was really my point.

The only bids that I pay any attention to, on items I am interested in, are those that are for more than I am willing to pay for the item. As soon as I see one of those, I lose interest in the item.

Doug

I usually think (4) shilling, but also that the bidder may be pretending that he is shilling to (1) intimidate other bidders. Therefore, I'm usually more careful around these auctions, but if I really want the item, I'll still place my max bid. If it's a card that comes around a lot, I'd probably avoid bidding on it which would mean the bidder's strategy worked in a way.

Exactly, I NEVER bid on ANY auction until the final 10 seconds......that's my rule. If my highest and best snipe doesn't take it down, oh well, I tried. It actually really annoys the living f*ck out of me when I see two jack asses bidding back and forth litterally for days.......silliness.

same here

I actually get a laugh out of this kind of bidding, because it gives me an idea of how much they will each increase their bids, and I know that if I really want the card I can beat them. I usually still lose it to guys who use your last second snipe stategy. :o

What is a snipe?

A snipe is when you wait until the last few seconds, then jump in with one large bid. That way no one else has a chance to answer with a higher bid of their own. ;)

Of course it only works if somebody else doesn't have the same idea with a higher snipe ;)

When two snipes collide it usuall ends in disaster for one of the parties involved, lol.

So you have to sit there and do it? Can you set it up to snipe?

One reason for increasing your maximum bid is to simply add more bids to the tally. This could make people who stumble upon the auction react, "Geez, a lot of people are bidding on this one. Maybe I'll sit it out." In other words, it could be an attempt to scare potential bidders away, especially those who only see the number of bids and don't investigate further.

I have to sit at the computer and make a bid with about 8 seconds to go in the auction. There are people here who are much more experienced than me, so maybe they know of some way to set up a program to snipe. I can't help with that. :(

Alex, There's several good 3rd party software that does this. - Paul

There are services that will do it for some small fee.

I've always done it manually. With a fast connection I can get within the last 5 seconds or so, closer if I don't get anxious.

Besides, if I used a service and bid on everything I wanted I'd be broke in an hour.

I don't usually look at bidding patterns. I used to on bike parts because there were a couple japanese bidders that I knew I could never outspend. I finally saw a couple pictures of one of those collections. Impressive, but not as impressive as a 2 car garage in Tokyo. Bikes on one side nice car on the other, Ferrari on the lift above the first car.

A group of minimal bids in a row wouldn't be intimidating, or really all that interesting. The ones I worry about are the lone low bid in the first few days with a followup by the same bidder the next day. That usually lets me know that someone else has spotted the same thing I have (Usually a stamp with an expensive variety that wasn't listed as such) And that they've looked it up - That means I probably won't win it cheap.

Steve B

There really is no such thing as sniping, if you put in the highest bid you are willing to pay the first day, you either win it or you dont. it doesnt matter if you wait until the final few seconds. someone is either willing to pay more for it with their highest bid or not regardless of when you bid.

This statement is only true if everyone puts in the highest amount they are willing to spend and doesn't ever change their mind.

example-
99 cent starting auction
I see one bid in place at 99 cents (but the person's actual bid is $20)

I decide it is worth $25 and bid that the first day of the auction. This gives the person 6 days to think about that bid of $20 and maybe up their bid. They don't know if your bid is $20.50 or $200 and they might not want to lose due to a few cents.

If i decide to place my $25 bid with 5 seconds left it doesn't give the other person the time to second guess their bid.

Using a snipe also gives you the option to back out of a purchase up until the last 5 seconds, in case you find something better or spend the money before it ends.

Finally! Somebody else who understands.

That is absolutely not true.

In those rare occasions where I bid before the final few seconds, I have many examples where a previous bidder has upped their bid, after I bid, to either beat me, or cost me money. Had I bid later, they would not have had time to do so.

I'm with Shoele$$ except I do place an early, low bid . . .
 

. . . near the start of an eBay auction, so that the seller knows there is another interested buyer before considering selling outright to someone else.

My strategy developed from having lost out on items due to waiting to place my initial bid (snipe) at the very end, and having the seller end the auction unexpectedly. I have always assumed the seller got an offer contingent on ending the auction early. My strategy is far from full-proof as a small number of auctions have still ended early (with me out of luck) but I have also benefitted from afew eBay messages from sellers requesting counteroffers to other offers made to them. And for those that ended early without my having had the opportunity to make an offer, I have always followed up with the seller to let him know how much I would have offered. Never resulted in gaining an item, but maybe helped the seller change how he considered outright offers, and may yet benefit me in the future.

+1

I don't analyze bidding patterns for shilling...or suspicious behavior...nor do I play major bidding games.

If an item is one I really want I will place my max snipe...and I usually forget about it until it's over...or I'll watch the countdown to see if I won.

I also often place a bid I'm comfortable with...not necessarily the next bidding increment so I don't see these little bump bids.

From the 2 big sniping services I have used this is 100% incorrect. They don't let you change or add snipes with less than 5 minutes left.

When i see multiple bids, particularly from a bidder with low number of feedback or most bids with the seller, i always assume shill bidding.

I will still bid if i really want the card, but usually am not happy about it. I never play any of the other games myself.

A Contrarian Approach
 

I have no problem with max bidding, whether an early max bid or or a single snipe bid, but............

athough I may an idea of my max bid in an auction, but that is also subject to change and frequently does. I approach an auction in terms of a "good buy", rather than simply how much I am willing to pay under any circumstances. Losing doesn't bother me as I try to avoid the "gottahaveit" approach to bidding. (Losing at the casino is a negative proposition whereas losing an auction is a neutral position.)

Bidding patterns, with a limited number of bidders in the game, admittedly can be suggestive of shilling. They can also be quite transparent (ie the 50, 60, 70, 80, etc bidder). Or they can be entirely random and unpredictable. Knowing whether an item of interest is in fact a potential good buy cannot be determined until the waning moments of an auction.

Looking at the bidding pattern I find useful. Obviously a high snipe is going to win every time, but the risk of two competing high snipes has already been mentioned. Absent the snipe bid(s) though, if I can predict what another active bidder's final bid will be, I feel that I have an edge.

It becomes sort of a game. Beating a $70 snipe with a bid of $70.02 gives me visions of the other guy screaming at his laptop and a :).

Consistent with this "gaming" approach to auction bidding, if I do enter multiple bids on an item for any reason (not shilling), I try to avoid a predictable pattern in my bidding.

"There are not only many reasons to skin a cat, but also many methods to skin it as well. Be well, my friend, bid well and may the best man win," attributed to the most interesting bidder in the World.

This has happened to me once, when I was collecting modern cards. I was putting together a player collection of former Tennessee Titan TE Ben Troupe and pretty much the whole season had been duking it out over the 1/1's and low numbered cards with a Florida Gator collector (this was when you could see ebay id's). When the card pictured below came up on ebay, I was going to win it at all costs, I thought maybe 200-250$ would get it. I set my snipe for something ridiculous like 700$, wouldn't you know that Florida collector did the same damn thing. Unfortunately I won it for something like 500$:eek: Hard to explain to my ex-gf that I'd spent 500 on a card, that's one of the reasons she's my ex;) I'd be lucky to get ten bucks for it today, Ben's probably working construction somewhere now...

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...ictureid=10541

Frank. Please use your powers for good, not evil.

I snipe things I want to go after, so I do not concern myself with other bidders' making max bids. Although I cannot prove it objectively, I think I pay less for auctions when I use a sniper than when I post a max bid and let people chip away at it. I believe one of the metrics Ebay uses to present items in its 'plugs' in closed listings and the like is bid activity, and if so, the more bids something draws, the more likely it is to be highlighted by Ebay as a 'popular' item.

I've gotten within a nickel of someone's max bid with a snipe. Definitely fun, but more from knowing I called the top rather than from a screw-the-opposition perspective. I mean, he doesn't know he was one increment from winning--for all he knows, my max bid was twice his.

Frank,

I don't know if it has any impact on how much I bid, given that I have seen the auction in either case, but I may be more likely to find it in the first place, as I occasionally sort by # of bids to find the good stuff. Also, I'd love to read your son's dissertation. I've been spending a lot of time on game theory with my students this semester.

I agree with you completely. We've all lost auctions by a nickel (and been "screwed" so to speak). It's just nicer (fun) to win by nickel (and be the "screwer"). My point is that it may be possible by analyzing bidding patterns to tip the screwer/screwed balance in one's favor without betting the farm to assure victory. I fully realize the underbidder may well be a friend and not necessarily from North Korea :eek:

Shaking hands after an auction is preferable to firing a missile.:D

This recently happened to me where I lost an auction by 9 cents because my snipe was set one second after the winner's snipe. Also note one bidder tried the same thing Frank said in OP, and there were plenty more bids by him at the beginning also. Was he shilling (e.g., safety bid) or trying for intimidation, I don't know. (His % bids w/ that seller was 14% with no bid retractions last 6 months.)

It's not that difficult. Just bid higher than everyone else. :D

We had a detailed discussion on this board about a year or so ago about sniping. Half the comments were that you don't save any money. The other half of the comments said you do save money. I tend to agree with the ones who said you don't save any money.

The reason to snipe is really

1) you don't show your hand early, so other bidders will tend to think no one really wants the card
2) you don't need to worry about being at the computer to bid
3) you can change your mind & cancel or increase your bid up to some amount of minutes (maybe 5 ?) before the auction closes.

There is at least one (Auction Defender, not free) that allows you to pull your snipe at anytime before the snipe fires. There is no time limit.

It also allows you to set up conditional sniping, which is really good for those non-"one-of-a-kind" type items. Basically, if I don't win item A, bid $X on item B. Or if I DO win item A, bid $X on item B, etc.

I'm sure there are others.

Good to know, I must have read it wrong. I have never retracted using a snipe service, I normally just snipe manually.

One thing I've noticed is that if you use the ebay mobile app from your iphone it defaults to a minimum increment bid and it is very easy to bid repeatedly with one click. That may explain some of the minimum bid escalation patterns. I know I've sometimes tapped out ten incremental bids before saying the hell with it on an item.