Long term trends
 

I am curious what you folks think of long term trends say 10 years down the road. As many of us get older and scale down alittle do you think there will be as many set collectors of the cards from the 1930's through 1960'? We might be losing more collectors than we are gaining new ones. The easy deceased HOFers- Terry, Hubbell etc have not been appreciating except on premium items. I think there will always be lots of HOF collectors but once a new guy comes in say Barney Dreyfuss or Billy Southworth and there is enough supply for those of us that want one the prices drops by half or more and then stabilizes.
I do not collect for investment- just for enjoyment but as I downsize some of the niche collection I have been selling like many of my Jewish items I took large losses but I did well on rarer non HOF cards from the 50's to set collectors (but will they still be around in 10 years). Also I tend to collect guys on real oddball cards like when I saw Ken Griffey Jr in person and he actually signed I got him on a Japanese Konami card. Might be the only signed one out there but doesn't seem like it is worth as much as a topps card.
I still actively buy HOFers and some other items which I will pass down someday to my son who collected with me and knows baseball history
So to you guys out there what do you see happening? I will be away from my computer for a few days so won't be able to contribute more to this till I get back but anxious to here your views.

One trend I have noticed over the past 10 years is that the "completist" collector is going the way of the Dodo. By completist, I mean collectors that had to have the entire "set" of whatever. In my view, this applies across all the hobbies and genres I collect. Not just sports.

Now, collectors are more frequently focusing on the big names, classic covers (in comic books), moonwalkers only (in space autographs)... the "hot" item de jour.

Once the completists are nearly gone, this will leave many previously obscure, yet highly desirable, items in the dust.

For the high end items I think their will always be a market but not sure on the rest of the items.

Anyone that has tried to get a complete signed set have had "white whales" that they had to pay a lot money to get. I am working on a 1957 set and at some point I am probably going to end my quest not because it is completed but because of money and looking at the long term value of selling it at some point (we all end up selling our stuff at the end as we can't take it to the grave) For example on eBay right now their is a nice Danny O'Connell being sold for $1200. Yes I need it for my set but also at the same time how easy in the future is that card going to be able to be sold versus $1200 worth of signed Mantle, Mays, or Aaron items.

In general I think the hobby is dying with the young kids. They no longer save their allowance to go back packs of cards.

In terms of autographs I believe and agree with Steve that "completists" are a dying breed and in 10 years complete anything signature collections will be a rare thing because of many factors. I think there are more baseball subset collectors and HoF sig collectors as completists or trying to be than any other, maybe followed by Moonwalkers ( not Michael Jackson impersonators) then Presidents and then Declaration of Independence signers. I know of very few people trying to complete football or basketball HoFers complete sets.
Baseball is what I know so I believe that getting MVP, ROY, Cy Young winners are not that hard, but I believe the days of getting complete card sets signed or all decade players or decade debut players or complete team history roster players are getting harder and harder to complete and find not just for new collectors but also for the veteran collector. I believe this stems from the continued rising cost for the vintage or rare/ultra rare signatures and more importantly a skepticism due to the growing number of forgeries entering the market for this type of material. Also TPAs I believe have muddied the water for most collectors because if the TPAs screw up a LOA there is little or no recourse back to them.
The fact that the majority of kids today could care less about card, autograph or memorabilia collecting is increasing rapidly so that leaves us old guys to hold the fort down and as we get older, for most collectors because there will always be those collectors with bottomless pockets, we are less likely I feel to spend as freely as we once did because of past economic trends that affected our hobby and our wallets and the looming question of retirement as well as what am I going to do with all this stuff later or if I die before I sell it.
So rarity and prices of objects plays a role but I also think life and time, whether it is now or 10 years down the road or longer , does too for the dying " completest" collector in all fields.

muddying of the market with so many gu/autos has killed it. I remember being a kid in the 90s when game used cards still sold for 10-15 dollars for no names.

now it seems every time you open a pack you get one and it sells for 1$ its sad.

also the "adults" have killed the market with high end product that someone like me (a college student) or a kid could only dream of getting.

also the number of fakes on the market make everyone skeptical and more hesitant to buy anything

its a sad day for baseball cards

In the process of putting together my 53 set, I've noticed that auction prices are much lower than expected. About three months ago, a Karl Drews slabbed by SGC went up on eBay, and I was expecting it to go for over $500. I won it for $390, and the week before that there were a number of other auctions that also closed well below what I would have expected. I don't know if this is because of a lack of completists or if I just have unrealistic expectations. I've also noticed that rare signatures more often come up for trade than for sale, which makes completing a set that much more difficult.

Signed T206s and tough HOFers from the Goudey set are getting ridiculous prices in the latest auctions. Signed T206 commons like Snodgrass and Doyle went for ~$400 six or seven years ago, and now are all $1,000-$2,000.
Even Marquard reaches those price points. The fact that the T206 Speaker went for over $30,000 in the latest Goodwin is a scary omen for those of us who want to keep adding these beautiful rarities to our collections. It is important to recognize that the fact that a signature appears on a common set is actually the appeal -- a familiar image with a signature; as opposed to a random rarity signed, which is neither familiar or likely to appreciate. People want the sigs on Topps, not Mother's Cookies.

For me, the signed T206 set is a great way to move forward because the last player to die was Marquard in 1980. That means no signatures during the 80s craze, which certainly infused a massive supply into the market. Anyone who wants one can get a Hubbell, for example. There is no reason for those to go up in value. If you stick with HOFers who died before 1980 on standard issued cards like Topps, Bowman, Goudey, T206, etc., I think you'll be just fine in the long term.

there will always be set collectors. people change collecting and hobby goals and the younger generation always comes through and picks up the mantle, literally.

In theory. However all it takes is a skilled forger and an incompetent third party authenticator for that only known t206 Speaker to be one of 10 or one of 20.

We all know many of the signed vintage cards coming to market as of late are fake.

And this is where the seasoned collector will say that they can spot the fakes and wouldn't buy one. True. But the two person bidding war is less likely to happen when one of those people already has purchased a semi convincing fake and is no longer in the market.

The vintage signed card market is on a bubble due to baby boomers with money having fun. And it is going to burst.

After talking to some very skilled authenticators that many of us know it is scary knowing there are good fake signed t206's and 33 Goudeys out there that could even fool them. That is what they tell me. Almost wants to make me switch to autograph books and signed contracts and checks but I love the cards too much

Five years ago, this signed T206 of Cobb sold for $27,600:

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com...lls-for-27600/

If skilled forgers and incompetent third party authenticators are at all common, why hasn't a single signed T206 Cobb been sold at auction since?

(Having said that, Goodwin will have a Cobb Bat On, which comes from the same collector who had the Speaker in an upcoming auction.)