“Someone got a great deal on that”
 

Why do I think we are going to be hearing a lot of that in the coming months?

Market is totally resetting. Won’t be every item but will be most.

At least we are not modern baseball or modern basketball. Vintage will be fine. Some bumps in the road but fine.

I agree totally.

Hope it resets on some of the cards I want. So far, no such luck...

Vintage aint’ slowin’ down…my suggestion is to buy as much vintage at decent prices - and then continue to buy more - at decent prices…..the “fad” crowd spending hundreds - thousands - tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands and more for post 80 “limited” - “special” - one of ten cards will be begging you to sell your vintage….why anyone would spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on Brady, Trout and LeBummer “cards” is beyond comprehension….

IMHO

I predict I will be hearing that the card market is about to drop from collectors who want to get more cards, and that I will simultaneously hear that it will inexorably go up, up and away forever no matter what and everyone should go into debt and empty their 401K’s to buy more cards from those who stand to profit from such behavior.

LeBron? Brady? How about spending over a million dollars on a Justin Herbert card?

I learned from a longtime board member here who has helped me put together my collection, has givin me a lot of advice, and put things into perspective.

Know what you want to collect and be patient. Collect long enough and you will see these things go through cycles, he's been through a few. Buy what you can when you can and build your collection slowly, sometimes you'll overpay and sometimes get great deals. And the best part about this hobby is the relationships you make.

I don't think in the past 15 years there has been a day when some thread about which way the market was headed wasn't on the front page.

I’d be surprised if this wasn’t the case. The takes seem to be leaning a little more extremist and absurd than normal lately (not referencing the original post of this particular thread).

Not something I give that much thought to. Like Wall St and real estate they go up and down. I have benefited from both and been bitten by both. I like what I own. I will continue to buy at market prices knowing presently the cards might become less valuable in the short term. What I have seen in vintage is that whatever I have overpaid for in the past is worth far more today, even as prices adjust.

I don’t disagree, but with every asset class I can think of generally dropping at the moment, seems a bit of a stretch to argue that vintage cards won’t be affected.

If you are a pure collector, prob not a big concern. If you also collect as an investment, may affect you a bit more.

Obviously if you are looking to add something pricey, a drop in the market is a good thing.

Now that’s only I could get rid of these Zion Williamson NFTs …..

In the short term, I expect a general drop, but no crash. Personally, I am not buying common material, my Topps want list is just sitting and waiting right now. I'm 'going strong' on material that rarely comes to market for my boxing collection, but commodity cards that are available every day, I've sat out this year as prices have already fallen and I think will continue to.

We may get some nice price reductions coming. The Fed appears to be aiming to kill the job market to make people cut spending and help their "transitory" inflation problem the government made, and the White House and Congress appears to want to continue to spend like there is no tomorrow whatsoever. The economy is probably going to worsen over the next year again, which will have to have an impact on the vast majority of cards. It's going to be a long and ugly fight to reign in inflation while the government is pouring absurd amounts of billions into its agenda, and then try to resurrect the stock market and bring the jobs back.

Then again, I root for a total collapse of the card market. As an all collect no invest, I'd love for them to become worthless so I may buy more for less.

stuff that sells every day/month will take a hit. the market went bananas but the rare stud cards you might see once a year are strong imo

The biggest thing holding me back is that the items I’m looking to pick up used to sell for $30-$50k. Today they sell for $200-$300k. And my budget doesn’t go very far with price tags at that level.

I am in the same boat as you are on some items. That there are good deals to be had in a market that is correcting does not prevent me from pulling the trigger. Not having the money to pull the trigger is what prevents me.

At some point, it just gets boring, no offense to anyone.

I’m not clever enough to come up with OC posts.

Meanwhile, back at the collecting ranch, I'm super excited to finally close on a
Rare Bird that a member has been graciously holding for me.

Ain't that good news, man, ain't that news. :)

Tomorrow let's talk about whether cards are investments for the 973rd time, shall we? :D

I find a lot of threads to be incredibly boring. Like discussions of Magee error cards and polar bear backs on T cards. When I see a thread about them I don’t read them. Problem solved!

I agree. The joke you quoted is at my own expense.

I’ll follow it up with a thread about how I have noticed that there appear to be different brands of cigarettes advertised on T206’s, not just one.

This is a great post for us collectors. Thanks for sharing Phil.


.

PSA vs. SGC. Rewind, repeat 1000 times.

I see little drive up coffee shops springing up everywhere, will the economy effect them. My nephew is replacing his small business parking lot cost $75,000. When will people start walking into junk food restaurants rather than wrapped around the building waiting in the drive through line using gas- on and on and on, look around-who cares-Why should we worry to much about the cardboard market--grading will fix it, especially 10's

I agree with much of what Phil said, but I think at least for "elite" cards there's been a general long term upward trend superimposed on the up and down cycles. I can't imagine for example we'll ever see certain price levels again for most Ruths and Cobbs and Wagners.

Good Sam Cooke knowledge Peter, I would expect nothing less.

Well, what color sticker from a fraud ring or total rando is attached to the slab? That’s where the real difference is.

He was the best.

I have just bought what I wanted not caring about the future value of them. Everything I have paid for, I felt they were worth what I paid for them. I quit trying to predict the future. The crystal ball didn't work so I put it in the closet.

Well said Bruce.

I've paid a bit too much judging by current values countless times, but it's mostly worked out over the long term.

Finally, a card for this thread, and a good one too.

Sorry to hear we’re boring you. Did you have a titillating subject you’d like to discuss instead?

T206 background colors for sure. PSA v SGC, absolutely. Most underrated player is always good. Thinking on it still.

Sounds like it’s time to step up and start a new thread!

I’m down for the Sam Cooke thread. That seems promising.

My favorite T206 background color is still fuchsia. I think Barbie pink goes better with the art style on a Goudey though.

My favorite Sam Cooke song is "Wonderful World", though you really can't go wrong with Sam Cooke.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_UrVgmA964

Favorite error card?
Is it too soon to talk about strategy for "Nationals"?

It is hard to imagine a list where I would rank that any lower than five. Absolutely perfect song. It's such a great song that even the bubble gummy Herman's Hermits version is great.

Much like real estate this is true, rare vintage pre war is like beachfront property. If a Cobb I want was 3k but is now 6k the only question is can I afford it, because at the next up cycle it will be worth 9-12k.

It's the type of simple but sweet song I love and you don't hear much of anymore. I'm a sucker for the classic era Motown. It's a hard song for anyone to ruin in a cover.

Look up the Teskey Brothers from Australia and report back.

For me, My Girl is on the same level. Very few if any songwriters on the level of Sam Cooke and Smokey Robinson.

My Girl and It's Growing from the same album. Basically anything with David Ruffin on lead vocals through around 1973. Ben King's Stand By Me I can never get tired of either.

Yeah I was going to add that David Ruffin was otherworldly. The orchestration of the song is brilliant too, the whole thing is perfect.

I'm one song deep on YouTube and this is straight fire already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBFZNVxG86o

Thank you. I really liked Leon Bridge's first album that did fairly well and is basically a soundalike record of Sam Cooke.

His gruff voice is inelegantly perfect. His "I am My Brother's Keeper" album with his brother is one of my favorite overlooked gems. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfOroYBb0uY