Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p>Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys<br /><br /><br />Whilst the headline from last night's Memory Lane Auction will no doubt be <br />about the $275,000 paid for the PSA 10 Gehrig, the result that intrigued us <br />most was the vast difference in prices realized for two low number PSA 8 1933 Goudeys<br />and the fact that a number of other Goudeys with a similar population <br />realized only 10% of the price of their lower number cousins<br /><br />#26 Chalmer Cissell PSA 8 NM-MT $7455 (pop 8 none higher)<br />#36 Tommy Thevenow PSA 8 NM-MT $8198 (pop 9 none higher)<br />#203 Lonnie Warneke PSA 8 NM-MT $670.00 (pop 12 one higher)<br /><br />Only one example of the Thevenow has been auctioned in the past two<br />years. It realized a 21% higher price in the Spring 2005 REA auction. <br /> We , by the way, were the winners of the Warneke example.<br /><br />We would appreciate your views on why there is a such a significant<br />price differential for cards whose populations are quite similar?<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America’s Toughest Want List<br />

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>"none higher" vs. "one higher". Seems obvious to us. <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Some of the reasons include: the difference in population and 'none higher' as Steve pointed out. Also, the first two cards are 2 point set registry cards and the latter 1. However, Bruce, to the rational mind these factors do not explain the 13x difference between those cards and yours. I recently bought #115 Cliff Heathcoate PSA 8 with a pop 10 and none higher for $697. I'd sell the card for a third of what the Cissell and Thevanow went for if I could get it.<br />

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- I know from my own auctions that when I get prices that seem crazy compared to similar items they are totally based upon who is bidding. If there is no particular bidding war going on my lots will sell in the range of fair market price.<br /><br />When a similar lot sells significantly higher, it's usually two bidders going back and forth. Looking at prices realized alone doesn't tell you the full story.<br /><br />It could have been two guys going back and forth all night on the Cissell and the Thevenow.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>As Barry suggested, I would guess it is simply a matter of two people who really need/want those particular cards.<br />JimB

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Rand Brotman</b><p>both low number cards are extremely tough, when you back out who already owns the other cards in the registry, you will realize there may be only 1 or 2 examples available to buy if you want that card. The Thevenow card is a bit different, his son buys up all the Thevenow cards (just like Evar Swanson's son) on ebay that come available. so if he was aware of this card and another person was looking to upgrade its a battle. in the end, i still dont trust the actual figues in any Mem Lane auction.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>The Dorskinds purchased a '33 Goudey Warneke in PSA 8 for over $650? Doesn't that seem a little high? Last weekend at the Tri-Star in San Francisco, I purchased a PSA 6 '54 Bowman Mantle for about the same price. I don't know about you, but I would rather have the Mantle.<br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Bruce's price was not high.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />You are a New Yorker and I will assume that you are a Mantle collector. Would you rather have the PSA 8 Lonnie Warneke or the PSA 6 Mantle?<br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I'd rather have the Goudey because I collect the set. Now, if the question was a PSA 8 Mantle or the Goudey, no question the Mantle.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p>So, I take it that the consensus is that the populations stated: 8, 9 & 12 are numbers which are distinguishable from each other, and real. Real, in that they represent 8, 9 & 12 individual cards?<br /><br />And what? All PSA 8s are equal .... none has a chance for becoming a nine?<br /><br />Its not my game, but even spectators like to know the rules, and how to keep score.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />That's reasonable. I collect '33 Goudeys also and if I was close to completing the set I might be tempted by the Lonnie Warneke. But right now my preference would be for the PSA 6 Bowman Mantle.<br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Sorry to burst your bubble Bruce, but clearly you don't understand the high-grade 1933 Goudey market very well. Whilst you did get a decent purchase on the PSA 8 Warneke, it was nothing special as far as the price was concerned.<br /><br />You paid $670. <br /><br />The last few PSA 8 Warneke public sales in the last three years were:<br /><br /><br />$800<br />$700<br />$2,000<br />$700<br />$710<br /><br />5 PSA 8 cards have changed hands. Why so many when the pop is only 12? Probably because there is a PSA 9 and a PSA 10 in holders right now, thus the guys that upgraded sold off their 8s.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the Cissell and Thevenow are in a completely different universe when it comes to high-grade Goudeys. I'm surprised you aren't aware, I thought you were well-tuned into the high-grade market. <br /><br />Previous PSA 8 public sales in the last three years - just one of each card (Thevenow and Cissell)<br /><br />Thevenow PSA 8: $9700<br />Cissell PSA 8: $4945<br /><br />Whilst the price difference between the Thevenow/Cissell compared to the Warneke vis-a-vi high grade cards may be surprising to those that don't understand the high-end market, it certainly is not surprising to well-tuned collectors in this hobby.<br /><br /><br /><br />edited to add: based on all the information I have about the parties involved, I DO NOT think the PSA 10 Gehrig truly changed hands.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I very much respect your opinions on the board. You don't believe the PSA 10 Gehrig changed hands?.....pretty interesting.....I would prefer a reserve in auctions instead of the shell game....and for the record (not to try to change the subject) I don't have any issue with folks bidding on their own stuff in auctions, as I believe it should be stated as an acceptable rule, and then the buyer pays all associated fees. The buyers premium on that card would have been a good chunk of change to the auction house....I would guess if it didn't sell that there was an arrangement beforehand....(duh)....

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Zinn</b><p>"I don't have any issue with folks bidding on their own stuff in auctions, as I believe it should be stated as an acceptable rule."<br /><br />Did you really mean to say that?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I do....as I believe that many (not me) people will get other people to bid on their items if they aren't selling at a high enough level in auctions. To me it's the old ostrich in the sand situation. Everyone knows it goes on but no one wants to talk about it. Sorry, that's not my way of thinking. This is a very debatable issue but I would rather just come out and say the reality instead of thinking otherwise....just my opinion....Most might disagree and that is ok. You don't see me running an auction, do you? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>If Charlie were obligated to pay the buyer's fee on the Gehrig PSA 10 (e.g. &gt;$30k) if it didn't sell -- perhaps that is incentive to not have a hidden reserve. But if there is a hidden reserve and the card doesn't sell, with no consequences to the seller for it not being met...it does not serve the collecting community as a whole; it just ends up being a museum piece with an unconfirmed sale with an unrealistic price (assuming the consignor bid it up)

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Zinn</b><p>"people will get other people to bid on their items"<br /><br />I guess I'm just a naive boob but I would be personally embarassed to ask someone to do that. And, even I were to even consider asking someone, what would I think of the person if he or she agreed?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>I agree with Leon on this one. Let's take a hypothetical example. Let's say I consign a card to Mastro that I believe is worth $12,000. There is one minute left in the 30 minute overtime period and the card has stalled at $4,000. I decide I would rather eat the $880 Buyers Premium and have the card back for $4400 + BP, than sell it for $4,000. What is morally objectionable about that, particularly given that Mastro sets the minimum bids at about 10% of market value and does not allow for reserves of any type other than this low minimum bid?<br />JimB

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The way my software is set up, when I type up the lots on my spreadsheet I include the name of the consignor. That way, if a consignor tries to bid on his own lot he will be locked out.<br /><br />That said, I know any consignor can ask a friend to bid. And while I will continue to lock out my consignors, I too couldn't care one way or the other. Jim B's example proves the point- why should I force a consignor to accept a miserable bid if that's what he faces? The only solution is a reserve, but I run a no reserve auction so that too is not the answer. <br /><br />In the end, if a consignor asks a friend to bid on one of his lots, I just don't want to know about it. That keeps it simple and gets me off the hook. There is just so much I can do to police my own auction.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Leon wrote: "You don't believe the PSA 10 Gehrig changed hands?.....pretty interesting....."<br /><br />I might be wrong, but that's my assumption unless I see something else that shows it did in fact change hands. The first piece of evidence would be to see Charles Merkel due his duty and delete the card from his top-notch 1933 Goudey PSA registered set if he in fact no longer owns the card.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>JimB,<br /><br />There's nothing morally wrong with your example of a seller buying back their own card, but it is an unusual situation.<br /><br />It is also collusion. The buyer and seller is artificially jacking up the price for another buyer. However, in this situation the buyer and seller is the same person.<br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>you said:<br /><br />"There's nothing morally wrong with your example of a seller buying back their own card, but it is an unusual situation."<br /><br />I agree it is not morally wrong if you disclose it. I disagree that it would be unusual as I think many sellers would prefer to buy back a card and pay the fees than lose a ton of money. <br /><br /><br />then you said:<br /><br /><br /><br />"It is also collusion. The buyer and seller is artificially jacking up the price for another buyer. However, in this situation the buyer and seller is the same person."<br /><br /><br />I agree the price could be getting jacked up by the consignor but if the other bidder knows that going in then they can make an informed decision about how much they want to pay. Lets say I have 10k into a card and I consign it. At the ending of the auction it's sitting at 5k.....I don't want to sell it for that so I put in a bid of 5.5k....the other bidder says to themself...well, that's still a good price at the next increment so they bid 6k....Now I say to myself I will go ahead and let it go at that.....both parties are happy and the other bidder knows it very well might have been the seller on the other end bidding against him....but it's ok as he still feels he got a good deal......btw, this scenario happens in every single auction...REA, Mastro, SCP, etc etc.....it's just done through friends bidding for other friends....and no, I have never done this on either side. I know folks that do, and have, though. So then I say.....ok, then lets get it out in the open......total disclosure.....but I understand some won't agree with this mode of thinking.....regards <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>I don't get it. I just don't get it. Is this non-Euclidean law or something? <br /><br />"It is also collusion. The buyer and seller is artificially jacking up the price for another buyer. However, in this situation the buyer and seller is the same person."

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>You forgot the smiley face at the end of your post. All I'm saying is that a layperson would consider it collusion because it was undisclosed that the buyer and seller could be the same person.<br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>If an auction house were to disclose that consignors were allowed to bid on their own lots, I would not bid in that auction.<br /><br />I understand you might not mean it, but at least kiss me and whisper in my ear, you know?<br /><br />-Al

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>Al I respect your idealism but I think it's going to happen no matter what, if one can't bid oneself one can just have a friend bid for him to protect a card. So why not just be up front about it?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Zinn</b><p>I'm with you Al. Until such time as the auctioneers put realistic estimates and or disclosed reserves I'm inclined to pass as well.<br /><br />What's wrong with a reserve? If a seller wants to protect his investment that's what he should do. I know it stiffles the bidding process but the thought of having sellers bidding on their own auctions, albeit through a straw, is repugnant to me.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Guys, for the most part, all policy decisions of auction houses are dictated by money only. When the time comes that fairness, honesty and disclosure become a part of the calculus feel free to wake me up.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Kevin Saucier</b><p>"Guys, for the most part, all policy decisions of auction houses are dictated by money only. When the time comes that fairness, honesty and disclosure become a part of the calculus feel free to wake me up."<br /><br /><br />Well said!<br /><br />This is the reason I no longer bid on any cards from any auction.<br /><br />That, plus I think I have seen too many graded altered cards from many different auction houses. Some I believe knew what they were selling, while others probably didn't have a clue. <br /><br />I for one won't take the chance. I simply can't understand why anyone else would either.<br /><br /><br /><br />Kevin

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>So Kevin, are you suggesting that the whole auction business should cease and desist? I guess that would put me out of business.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Kevin,<br /><br />If we adapt your view, then we should buy only retail and avoid E-Bay and auctions and Barry would be out of business.<br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>To know why we bid in auctions you can go to my site and look at my personal collection. About 80%-90% of my best cards came from auction houses....I have bid and won items from almost every auction house you can think of. Since I don't collect high grade I doubt 1% of my cards have issues that I don't know about....or have been over looked by a grading company. Contrary to a few opinions I will never ever believe there are as many tainted cards (in a deceitful way) in lower grade than there are in higher grade, holders or not....It doesn't make cents (sic)...<br /><br />edited grammar....still not perfect but better...

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Can't buy retail either, Peter. You never know where those cards came from. Perhaps the seller is asking too much for them, perhaps they've been altered, perhaps they once were purchased on eBay or through an auction house. <br /><br />Can't buy on eBay, can't bid in auctions, can't buy at retail. The sky is, indeed, falling.<br /><br />Well, that's it, I guess. No more cards. Barry, time to pack up shop and get back into academia.<br /><br />-Al

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>I more or less agree with Kevin here. Auction houses are generally to be avoided unless you know the complete background of the card or its obvious nothing has been done. Seldom can someone can look at a card in a holder on a screen and determine that it hasn't been altered. Buy your expensive cards from a dealer with a money back guarantee.<br /><br />I think the hobby will move back toward the Steve Novella way with buying expensive cards personally from a dealer with a money-back guarantee.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Al- no more academia for me. Next career move is retirement.<br /><br />Jim- how on earth am I to know the background of all the cards in my auction? Do you know how many of the cards I have that I can tell you about their past- exactly zero. So what should I do, just pack it in?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>The sky is not falling and Barry need not endeavor to learn of ways to earn a living through his Seinfeld trivia knowledge. However, if you're concerned about unfair auction practices and buying cards that are knowingly altered then Kevin and Jim are right. Obviously there needs to be a happy medium that each collector can live with. Mine is that I avoid 90% of the auction houses now and assume that I am still being victimized by shill bidding. Unfortunately, whether you buy from ebay or Mastro or Memory Lane the same issues may exist. <br /><br />And for anyone that doubts my comments on the prevalence of shill bidding in auction houses, go ahead and buy 5 esoteric items from an auction house and resell them on ebay and let me know if you get back more than 50% of what you paid to that auction house.<br /><br />Jim C, etc: how about we make an auction house challenge? We offer a large cash donation to the charity of the auction houses' choice if their top executives will agree to undergo a polygraph examination (and pass) with the following question presented: are you aware of any shill bidding practices in any of your auctions over the past 10 years?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Al, Guys<br /><br />Through this thread we have pretty much decided that there's no future way of doing things in this hobby, and that we need to go back to the good old days.<br /><br />Guess what...it's not going to happen. <br /><br />So how do we improve the future of our hobby?<br /><br />Peter C.<br /><br /><br /><br />

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />You can do what you like. I cannot tell from looking at your graded cards(or others) whether they have been altered or not. <br /><br />In my opinion(since you asked), you should set up a mail order business with a money-back guarantee. Collectors could buy with confidence.<br /><br />By the way Barry if I bought something at your auction and sent it to Kevin to look at and he told me the card looked suspicious would you let me return the card?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />I love it--we could even expand the question to have you knowingly sold altered cards.<br /><br />And your comments about shill bids and auction houses in general are dead on.<br /><br />

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>Jim, the answer would probably depend on the definition of altered.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p><br /><br />Whilst, we are aware that from time to time, there are cards found in PSA/SGC Holders that<br />have been altered , it would not be an efficient use of time and resources for an auction<br />house and/or agent of one to alter every card.<br /><br />While our general operating philosophy is trust no one and double check everyone,<br />we think that our friends at the Auction Houses are wise enough not to alter $500<br />cards.<br /><br />We also believe that the sense of paronia with regard to shill bidding affirms our<br />believe that those who choose not to acquire ultra high grade cards defend their<br />position by implying that all ultra high grades are bad. <br /><br />We have countless cards that achieved grades of 8 or 9 which we obtained from<br />Sir Edward Wharton Tigar, Charles Bray, Cliff Lambert,and others...long before<br />there ever was a grading system.<br /><br />As for the coming collapse in the graded card market, if it were going to happen<br />anywhere it would have happend in the coin market. The coin market's trading<br />activity is valued at least 50x the card market. Slabs are broken day in and day out...<br />yet the market marches on...and has been extremely healthy.<br /><br />Whilst you may not agree, this hobby is now a big businees...every big business<br />has its regularlory issues...but the rare card market is basically solid...and while<br />the poor (and we do mean_poor) cry babies sit on the sidelines and complain,<br />the astute, educated saavy collector investors will continue to thrive.<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Lets let Barry answer it Peter--Barry if I bought 5 high end cards in your auction, sent them to Kevin and Kevin said in his opinion only two could he say with confidence have not been altered could I return the other 3???

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Bruce, your position is directly related to your desire to maintain the value of your collection -- fair enough. However, I'm paranoid about shill bidding and altered cards and I spend 6 figures on cards every year, as does Jim Crandell I presume, another "paranoid" one.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I think I'm getting a job at Starbuck's making vanilla lattes.<br /><br />Jim- a few points. First, the majority of the material I get is consigned to me with the request that I auction it. I don't know if I would get the material I do under any other circumstance.<br /><br />As far as a return privilege after showing it to Kevin: I can't say it's totally unreasonable, but just for argument's sake, what if I disagree with Kevin? What if I say I think the card in question is fine? What if I think between Kevin and SGC I'll go with SGC's opinion?<br /><br />Not saying you don't have a point, but I would have to think about it.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />Forget about working at Starbucks, come to my law office and edit my papers. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Peter C.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>(In Captain Kirk voice): "must... resist... responding ... to ... that ... last ... post.."

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />Lets say for sake of argument I consider Kevin an expert and that his opinion carries the day.<br /><br />Not telling you how to run your business but without the guarantee I am unlikely to bid much in any auctions.<br /><br />Don't blame you for saying you would have to think about it--what would your consigners think? Its a tough issue.<br /><br />But to reiterate if I bought a $15,000 card off a dealer's sell list, I would say its contingent upon Kevin's seal of approval. Dealer sends me card--I send to Kevin, Kevin returns card to me with his opinion and I either then send check to dealer or return the card.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I think the whole world's gone crazy.<br /><br />Or as Jerry said to Babu Baht: "Babu, the shrimp is a bit stringy" (don't ask me how that relates to this discussion).

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- because 99% of my customers are happy with the graded cards I sell, I would probably say we're still friends but it might be best if you didn't bid.<br /><br />No disrespect to you or Kevin, but sometimes I guy's gotta do what a guy's gotta do!

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />I understand you have to make a living--just explaining why in my opinion buying cards directly with a return privlege is superior to buying them at auction.<br /><br />Good luck.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>How many cards has Kevin convincingly identified as altered for you, Jim, or anyone else? EDITED TO ADD While I find his posts interesting and like him personally, I am not ready yet to anoint him as some uber-grader keeping tabs on the grading services, and I just wonder why you seem willing to do so?

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Kevin Saucier</b><p>For what it's worth, although I don't know Barry personally, I can see he makes a great effort to run an honest auction. It's the auction houses that are always in question I would not buy from. <br /><br />I sold an old car last week for a couple grand. The kid and his father tested, inspected and asked questions for a couple hours. They brought the car to their mechanic for a second opinion. In the end they were satisfied. A collector will slap down $50K on a card he can't inspect and with no questions asked based only on an opinion from an unknown person with unknown qualifications. <br /><br />I don't have the answers and the sky is not falling but I would be very cautious in light of all the problems. Then again maybe I'm not an astute, educated saavy collector.<br /><br /><br /><br />Kevin <br /><br />

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Not to disparage anyone, but if I were in business and someone asked me if I would guarantee that my products would pass muster with a person who has no affiliation with any recognized business or regulatory entity in my industry, I would politely tell that person to pound sand. My next-door neighbor knows a lot about cars, but I'm pretty sure that Toyota isn't going to let me return my SUV if he doesn't like it. It doesn't mean my neighbor isn't extremely knowledgeable - perhaps even more knowledgeable than some of the people who work for Toyota - but unfortunately, he does not have the qualifications to make that judgement, regardless of how much he knows.<br /><br />Not to speak for any auction houses, but I'm pretty sure that the grading company holders in which their cards reside is the authentication that they offer. And while they do occasionally make mistakes and differ in their interpretations of various forms of "alteration," I'm more confident in their opinions with respect to authentication, alteration detection, and overall grading than I am of the opinions of most other people. After all, the average grader evaluates more cards in a day or two than most of us see in several months' time. My point: the grading company offers the peace of mind that most of us are seeking. And while altered cards certainly get into holders, my impression is that incrementally more altered cards are rejected. There are certainly holes in the system, but it's nowhere near as bad as the Wild West it used to be.<br /><br />Not to disparage anyone else, but Bruce, there's no need to sound so envious of the astute, savvy collector investors. They make just as many mistakes as you do, albeit on a grander scale since they invest so much more in the hobby than you or I. <br /><br />-Al<br /><br />edited for more clarity and to sound less disparaging.

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Jim,<br /><br />For the vendor, the problem with return privileges is that it creates a cash flow problem. Suppose I sold you a $50,000 card and I earned $10,000 on the deal. Then one year later you want to return the card. Suppose 10 customers want to do this in one month.<br /><br />Basically the customers are asking for $500,000 to be returned to them.<br /><br />For most vendors that would present a serious problem.<br /><br />Peter C.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- fair enough.<br /><br />And I agree with Peter- Kevin knows a lot about card alterations, but he's not a professional. He taught himself because he wanted to learn, but he's not the Grand High Exalted Mystic Ruler- yet. Maybe some day he will be.

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Peter,<br /><br />Relax--I have return privleges with a number of major dealers I buy from.<br /><br />Al,<br /><br />I respectfully disagree on part of your thinking. I think its reasonable when buying an expensive collectible to make the sale contingent upon an independent experts view that the collectible has not been altered in any way and to have a return privlege if it is judged by that expert to be altered. I don't buy the analogy to a car.<br /><br />On our friend Kevin, while he may not have all the answers he certainly has recognized a fair amout of altered cards in holders and has shown the ability to get alterations by the best graders in the business. Not only did Kevin not pay me to say this but I am buying him dinner the week after next.<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>I thought PSA SGC and GAI were independent experts, Jim.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Peter -- they're not independent experts with regard to reviewing cards that they encapsulate.

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Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Jim:<br /><br />I agree with what you're saying, completely.<br /><br />The issue lies in the term "independent expert."<br /><br />The "independent expert" is not Kevin (no disrespect intended), it is SGC or PSA. The grading company has already rendered its opinion on the card. In my analogy, Toyota is not going to let me bring a new car to my neighbor after I buy it. They might let my neighbor take a look at it and render an opinion before I buy it, but most auction houses will do the same thing. They'll send you bigger scans, many will let you come in and see the cards, and I've even heard of some smaller auction houses shipping cards directly to potential bidders for evaluation. <br /><br />But the hobby, in general, has recognized experts in the field of authentication and grading, both of which have developed their good standing with a decade of respectable work, consumer confidence, brand-building, and all the other things that legitimate businesses need to do in order to legitimize themselves in the eyes of their industry. They do, indeed, make mistakes - same as Toyota occasionally builds a lemon - but that does not make them any less qualified to do their jobs. And the industry recognizes them as such.<br /><br />-Al

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>What best graders has Kevin got stuff past? Mike Baker said he knows of no cards Kevin has got past GAI. And you say "graders" meaning plural....please elaborate....Has he got stuff by SGC?

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Leon,<br /><br />Kevin has told me things that he may have meant to be in confidence or perhaps I misunderstood. Either way, best if anyone addressed it that its him.<br /><br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Jim,<br /><br />Would you be willing to bypass having an expert examine a card if your return privilege was unconditional? Basically, you could return the card any time you wanted to within a year.<br /><br />Peter C.

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Peter,<br /><br />Yes although its sort of a ridiculous premise. So a have a lifelong option to put the card back to the dealer--I wish everything were like that.<br /><br />Al,<br /><br />I hope you are right--my sense is that the card doctors have at times and may in the future be ahead of the grading companies.

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Posted By: <b>Rand Brotman</b><p>if a buyer wins a graded card, why does the auction house have to be responsible when the 3rd party is the one that certified it? Jim C has a ton of high grade psa cards, but they were graded along time ago, i would think there could be many over graded cards in those old holders... maybe Kevin should see those first. so if Jim has 100 psa 8's that are really 7's should he get the difference back from psa?

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Thats really intelligent Rand--discussion ended.

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Posted By: <b>Rand Brotman</b><p>No offense Jim, but old psa graded cards are dicey in todays world, i wonder how many of your psa 8 - 9 - 10's would really garner those grades if resubmitted today. anyhow, why should any auction house have to give a guarantee when its in a psa holder. psa should stand behind their cards, especially the overgraded & trimmed ones.

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Posted By: <b>PS</b><p>In my opinion it is unreasonable to expect an auctioneer like Barry selling cards that have already been authenticated and graded by independent experts to make a sale of a consigned card contingent on further review by another grader. This extends to another grading service, and certainly to any individuals not generally accepted as experts in the field. When one buys a graded card one is buying the opinion of the company that slabbed it -- period. If an obvious, blatant mistake has been made such that an experienced auctioneer knows there is a problem, that is another matter. But short of that, a business selling consignments cannot realistically offer a right of return based on a further review by the buyer's choice of reviewer.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>To take Peter's point a step further, even if I agreed to such a contingency my consignors very well may not, and I wouldn't blame them. And if I start losing my consignors, my business ceases to exist. If I sell a card that was graded by one of the big three I feel I have done my due diligence. People can argue with this point but there is only so much I can do. If every graded card is subject to further review I will get calls two months after consignors are paid asking for a refund. No auction house would allow such a thing to happen. I guess every transaction has some risk, however small.

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Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p>I'm getting way too much pleasure from Bruce's posts. It's gotten to where I'm disappointed if I come to the BOARD and he doesn't have a post up.<br /><br />--Chad

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Posted By: <b>PS</b><p>Barry you are right, and the right of return doubtless would be abused by people who decided they paid too much, or couldn't flip the card as they expected, and so on.

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Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />As I said you have to run your business and in my opinion you are unquestionably honest--but like many others you may not have the expertise to tell if a card has been tampered with before it got slabbed.<br /><br />Peter,<br /><br />It may be unreasonable but when dealers who do not sell cards at auction but via the old fashioned way are willing to offer that service it makes it easy to decide where I should buy my cards if given the choice.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- You are absolutely correct. I have neither the expertise nor the eyesight to detect a subtle alteration. And that's why we all send tons of money to the big three grading companies. I, or my consignor, pays them a fee for the expertise that they have, and we don't, to detect the alterations.<br /><br />That's why when you buy a house you pay a building inspector to look for termites and structural flaws. He has the expertise that the buyer and seller don't.<br /><br />I will repeat for the 187th time- let the big three do the work we pay them for. I can only do so much.

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Posted By: <b>rand</b><p>here we go again, instead of Jim C looking to hold his beloved PSA accountable, he wants to hold the dealer or auction house responsible for his purchase. WHY is it anybodys responsibility to guarantee the card once PSA has done their part? if Jim buys another vaunted psa 9 or 10 he should take it up with PSA if the card is misgraded. Barry does not have to be an expert, or anyone else for that matter, if the card was sent to the # 1 grading service in the world and they put their opinion in a plastic holder it should be a non issue "Right?" Jim wants to BLAME sellers instead of going to the source. What if Jim's psa 10's are mostly 9's in todays world or even worse....trimmed, ever so slightly...Who ya gonna call???

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Rand,<br /><br />Are you a troll using a different name than your real one?

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Posted By: <b>rand</b><p>have nothing to hide. never have. what's a troll? You express your opinions, have i called you an abrasive name?

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Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>"An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response."<br />

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Posted By: <b>rand</b><p>thanks, i did not know that.

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Posted By: <b>Paul Moss</b><p>One of the reasons we employ the services of grading companies is to establish a mutually acceptable plateau of what a card is, and its relative value commensurate to the assigned grade. We pay for this service which encompasses more than just entombing a card in plastic. As we deal with the major grading services, those who guarantee the authenticity and particular grade of a card with a check should the card not prove to be as they had originally ascertained, why on God's green earth should a dealer be expected a year later to refund the purchase price of a card because that particular card might not be as the grading company had originally established? Take it up with the grading service, not the dealer. <br /><br />Sure, altered stuff slips through the cracks, it's a given considering the time allocated to inspecting the card by the respective company. What do people expect given the relative low costs of grading? Overall, the percentage of stuff getting through is small nowadays. Sure, there's plenty of crap in many of the early slabs of the grading companies, I mean cards that have been worked over harder than a hooker at a bachelor party, but the overall number today is much smaller. For the relative low costs in grading, coupled with their respective guarantees, it's a bargain.<br /><br />Did I just hear "Spend more time evaluating the card" from the back of the room? OK, are you willing to pay what it would take to really give a card a truly thorough examination? I mean running the card under different UV frequencies, various color filters, microscopic examination of areas and edges that are questionable, electronic calipers for overall paper thickness, and the tried and true eyes of someone who has been around the block? <br /><br />Sorry, but if I sold a slabbed card from a major company a year or two or three ago, and you now don't like it. I'd have to say sorry. I paid for that company's expertise and guarantee, and we both accepted these facts at the time of sale.

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Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Bingo.<br /><br />Thanks, Paul. In your ability to crystallize concepts and articulate them in writing, you have a gift.<br /><br />-Al