New NFL Playoff OT Rules Discussion
 

Sorry for the long read!

(Note: There are other ancillary rules involved that don't impact the main point I am looking for opinions on, so I've left them out.)

Starting with the 2022-2023 season, all playoff games that advance to overtime will follow these revised rules:
• If a game is tied at the end of regulation, the referee will toss a coin to determine which team will possess the ball first in overtime. The visiting team captain will call the toss.
• Both teams will have an opportunity to possess the football.

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When looking at this new set-up, a very important decision immediately becomes clear. Does the team 'winning' the coin toss accept the kickoff or defer and allow their opponent to have the first possession?
Time and again I've seen the 'experts' weigh in and say, "You should definitely defer!" That annoys me a bit, because these talking heads seem to exist in a vacuum.

I'm not positive what the best decision is, but it should definitely come down to each individual team's strengths/weaknesses on both sides of the ball - offense and defense.

(I am weighing this decision under the assumption that the first team with the ball WILL score.)

• My first thought is give me that ball first. Number one, I want my team controlling the action (especially in a home game), with the coach basically saying, "I believe in you guys!"
Number two (no crap jokes), your defense gets a bit of a rest after a long, hard fought game, while the other team's 'D' has to get back out there.

But here's my breakdown:

- Say you defer and your opponent scores via an FG or TD. When you get the ball back, now any mistake you make will cost you the game and end your season - a turnover, a missed fourth down conversion, bad penalties, etc. Although these teams are skilled professionals, I would rather put that monumental sudden-death pressure on the other team.

- But say you don't defer and your team takes the kickoff and is able to move down the field and grab three or seven points. Now that awful pressure is on the other team and the crowd will be monstrously disruptive, going bananas for your 'D'!!! Keep 'em from scoring and you win the game!!!


• Buffalo
The Bills are my team, and Josh Allen is often a miracle worker, but his heroics do lead to (many) turnovers. If something like that happens when they have the ball first, it can still be overcome by their defense holding. But if their opponent has the opening possession in OT and scores, then a pick/fumble would have bugles playing 'Taps' all along Lake Erie...so give me the damn ball first!!!!


What's your opinion?
Insert the team/teams you're rooting for into your reasoning if you can.

Also, if I am understanding the rule correctly, if the first team scores, second team gets its possession. If they tie it up, it goes back to the first team and next score wins. So, if you defer and play "even" through the first possession on each side, the other team will have the ball and only needs to get in FG range to win the game. I would rather have the ball in a sudden death situation - unless the only way my team scores is on takeaways.

That's what adds so much intrigue to the decision. There are so many different factors to consider, like a tie after each team has had the ball. That would put the first team to have the ball in OT in the driver's seat now.

Or say a team has a killer 'D,' then (even if tired) I would defer and have them on the field first to put the pressure on the other squad. A turnover or a stop after a small amount of yardage gained could very much lead to a victory.

The number of variables is dizzying!!

I agree and like the new rules.
There is alot of strategy but to me I would want my team to have the ball first

The advantage of deferring is then you know exactly what you need to win. Stop the opponent and a FG wins it, the coach can call plays or make decision based on that.

The options are many.

Is your team an offense driven team or defensive?

Which was on the field last, and how did it go.
If my offense had just tied it up and their defense seemed to not have the answers, no way I'd defer.
But if it had been tied, and I had an excellent defense that had stopped the other side throughout the fourth quarter? Maybe, especially if the other team had just had a drive stopped to end regulation. Keep the tired offense that just stalled on the field.

Another thought is that pro athletes should be conditioned well enough to handle a few more minutes of play. So what would actually matter is what that period of time and being stopped did to them mentally.

Give me the ball.

I play to win. I'll never play not to lose.

Stuff it down the other team's throat. March down the field and punch it into the end zone.

Stick your opponent in a, "put up or shut up...and go home" situation.

Never play scared.

NFL Playoff Overtime
 

What would happen if the first team went for and made a two-point conversion? Lot more pressure on the second team when its their possession. Like you have already mentioned a lot of possibilities.

It would be interesting to see.

What will be most interesting for me to see is what Belichick's team does the very first time they are in this situation and they end up winning the toss and get to decide.