"Possibly doctored" cards at the National.....
 

OK, I have a bunch of thoughts on the recent events, but I won't write them until a later date.
Suffice to say we all figured it had been going on, (at least in small amounts) but I think what is really bothering most people is its at a MUCH BIGGER scale than what most imagined.

Forwarding past all that, think about this scenario.


Suppose you go to the National, and are in search for a bigger ticket item.
You have saved your hard earned cash, and plotted buying something for a good while, and the time came to finally pull the trigger on card X.(insert your own sought after card here)
Let's face it, the National is the one time a year where you can get damn near anything.


Just as an example, lets say we are in search of a '52 Topps Mickey Mantle. Again, pick your pre-war poison if you like, say a mid grade T206 Cobb, or literally whatever you choose. At this point, it really doesn't matter what card you choose, as long as its something that is A - highly desirable, and B - possibly "doctored".
Let's also suppose we are going to spend $2,500 - $10,000.... so its not exactly pocket change, and we also know there is a "great chance???" this card may have been touched up over the years.

My question is this, for all you guys that have a ton of experience at the Nationals.

If you were truly looking to make a sizeable purchase of this nature, exactly how diligent would you be in examining the card you were considering?

Further -, it appears as though using a small black light, might be one of the cheapest, handy and easiest to carry and use "items" at the Nationals to examine any purchase you were thinking about making.
True, it isn't fool proof, but at least some alterations can be picked up via black light.
For those that didn't necessarily know this, have a look here. ~~~~~> https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2017/...uthentication/
(I'm sure there are many sites on this, that is just the fastest one I could find relating to black lights and card alterations.)

I guess what I am asking, is did you ever do this "black light examination" when looking at a card at the National?
Even if you did, or did NOT, how much more inclined are you to do this very thing at the upcoming National?

I was thinking about this tonight.
I can envision a scenario where bunches of people keep asking dealers to see cards. THEN everybody and their brother pulls out a black light and proceeds to go over said card they are considering purchasing.....all the while the dealer is rolling his eyes and telling himself "here we go again", as customer after customer is thoroughly examining and scrutinizing cards they are thinking about purchasing.
Also note - This doesn't have to be about a '52 Topps Mantle, it could be said about a slew of cards now.
Personally, any purchase of this nature, I would have wanted to give it at least a cursory once over. But now I'm betting this is going to be a very common scene this year.

This has been something I considered, and it has been going through my head a bit lately.
FWIW - I have never been to a National, and I am not in a position as to where I will be going this year either.
I am just curious as to how much this is actually seen, and how much more frequent this may be happening from this year on at all the bigger shows.

I would think for any "bigger" purchase like this, it was already fairly common for the cards to be examined very thoroughly.
I can't help but think its going to be widespread this year in light of all the recent events.

Even though this is the pre-war side of the board, this should be something interesting to all vintage collectors as well, say everything up until the 70's and even newer.

EDIT - Leon, I figured this would be the better spot to originally post this, but if you want to re-post it over in the post-war section....feel free.

Who buys a raw 52 Mantle or mid-grade T206 Cobb?

Edited to add: or any expensive card that common sense dictates should be in a holder. If an expensive common issue card (T206, 50s Topps) is being sold raw or in a non-PSA or SGC holder you can be certain it’s altered. And yes even in a PSA or SGC holder we have learned it can be altered. But if it’s raw you can be certain it is no matter how vociferously the seller tries to convince you it isn’t.

Nobody does that I know of.
Not raw, I'm speaking of already graded.
Everyone is of course going the graded route.....but you can still examine the card in detail, and use a black light on it.
(actually, I have never used a black light on a card that is already slabbed, but I'm sure you can do it)

I didn't spell it out specifically, but I am sure there are many that use black lights, or whatever it is they can to help examine a higher end card like that as best they can....... even though it is already slabbed.

Don’t buy any big ticket items at the National. Save your money and wait for
the hobby to get hit considerably before you buy a big item. If the card market doesn’t go down you missed it so what you’ll have cash and right now I’d rather be cash heavy and card light then card heavy and cash light.
I will never bring a black light to a show a 10x coin Loupe will be my only weapon along with 20/20.

In my opinion for anything positive to happen a considerable downtrend and amount of money loss has to occur for everyone involved kinda like a take your lumps and bumps get hit then grow. If the collector/investor keeps fueling money to tpg’s ,auction houses, and dealers things will never change for the better. It happens to the US stock market ever so often then it always pops back stronger then ever...it will be healthy in the long run to the hobby. To many people are addicted to cards. I just hope they lay off them and can control themselves for a couple of years until the smoke clears.

Seeing as the national tends to have notoriously high prices this would be a foolish endeavor...But to answer your question every time I go to a card show I bring a black light and a loop as part of my arsenal.

As I mentioned, I'm not going to the National, and it will be a while before I make another large purchase like that.

But you can bet there can and will be plenty of bigger items swapping hands, through outright purchase, and or trades at the National I'm sure.

I didn't even mention a loupe, although I know thats another one of the "go-to's" that many use in those cases.

I figure people using "whatever they can" to scrutinize cards this year will be far more common than in years past.
But as I alluded to , I would have wanted to give it a "cursory once over" even in the past.
I'm guessing there will be a tremendous amount of card scrutiny this year.
FAR MORE than ever before.
Not that THAT is a bad thing. It's just too bad all of this had to happen.
Short term this is really a bad spot for the hobby.
But long term, hopefully it will be a good thing for us all.

To actually answer your question I have had people use black lights at some of the large East Coast shows I am set up at. Doesn't insult me in the slightest. Even before all this went down I couldn't blame them.

You can shine light through plastic.

I can envision a scenario where bunches of people keep asking dealers to see cards. THEN everybody and their brother pulls out a black light and proceeds to go over said card they are considering purchasing.....all the while the dealer is rolling his eyes and telling himself "here we go again", as customer after customer is thoroughly examining and scrutinizing cards they are thinking about purchasing.
Also note - This doesn't have to be about a '52 Topps Mantle, it could be said about a slew of cards now.
Personally, any purchase of this nature, I would have wanted to give it at least a cursory once over. But now I'm betting this is going to be a very common scene this year.

I personally bring a black light, loupe and a ruler - both digital and regular when pursuing a large dollar card. I would think any dealer that objects may have something to hide and any dealer that is confident about the quality of his merchandise would welcome it, if they wish to sell stuff...

I think you’ll all be surprised that nothing much will change at the National. Cards will be severely overpriced, the best cards will be at the auction house tables, and fat guys in baseball jerseys will be roaming the aisles. I don’t think an army of blacklights will be present.

To do well at the National, you either have to be a seller or a bottom feeder buyer. I have done very well looking in dime boxes and at lower grade cards at the nationals I have attended, less well when i went on a mission.

This goes without saying!!! Maybe someone should have a whole booth dedicated to selling items to help detect fakes and alterations!!!

Love this commentary! It’s 100% correct minus the awful bo from people flocking dollar boxes by the Ferris wheel 🎡

I would think that if someone has a problem with you looking at a card you're going to buy from them you probably don't want to buy cards from them.

I am fat and represent that remark but the body odor thing, not for me. I take at least 1 shower while at the National.
I have been to around 17 of the last 20 Nationals. IN the first ones I always bought big stuff and had a blast. The last 5-8 yrs I haven't really bought much. A few things here and there. I always bring a loupe but never a black light (that I used).
I am way more leery after this scandal, of high grade cards, than before it. I don't see me buying any high grade cards soon at all.

This type will be my focus and actually has been anyway. It could be messed with but my experience tells me it probably isn't. There are way too many of these in 8 holders. :)

National
 

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I have bought cards in the 100-5000 range at recent Nationals. I have also attended Nationals and not spent a penny at dealer tables. There are some good guys out there that set up at the National.

I've never used a black light before purchasing a card. Is there a good portable unit anyone could recommend that would be good to have in your arsenal?

If I had that sort of money to spend, and was able to examine the card in person, I would.

You'd probably need 80% less money to buy a raw 52 Mantle. And then you'd lose the 20% you paid when it turned out to be a reprint.

There will be plenty of nice raw cards at the National with zero problems. Deal with reputable people and you will not have to worry. I will have many nice 52 Topps High #s which are 100% untampered with, the ones I did get graded were mostly 6-7's, a few 5's and a few 8's(I'll also have the PSA graded ones there). I will also have two sets of raw 1955 Topps All-American's, most Nrmt +/- and again all without issue. As an example, for the last two years i have been selling 1958-1963 Topps from the original owner. Several I had graded, again mostly 6-8's, but have sold hundreds of high grade raw cards from the collection. They do still exist! Just a couple of examples, obviously postwar. Provenance will start to mean more and more to collectors, when and where available.


A somewhat contrarian position might be to by raw instead of graded, perhaps the odds of finding untampered with cards might be better.

No, I know what real cards look and feel like. like most collectors who started in the late 70's, I've probably physically handled more 52T and T206 than most dealers who began their business in the early 90's or later. Pretty much every table at every show had rubber banded stacks of them. The local shop would get in collections and being the kid that hung out there, I sometimes got to be the first one to really look at them.

Hey how about you send me a fake and real one and I'll send the fake back to you? If you're right, it's a coin toss, better odds than Vegas. (Also applies to commons, and pretty much any set that isn't so uncommon that I've never seen one.

My black light is used strictly for listening to Hendrix and Pink Floyd and smoking with hippies.

I don't think the issue is whether one person can tell the difference. There is no logical reason why it wouldn't be slabbed unless there was something about the card that made it untouchable to TPG. People buy tables at shows to make money. Anyone who wants to make money is going to have a card like that graded, unless there's something wrong with it.

The question was who would buy a card like that ungraded.
I'm confident I can spot stuff at least as well as TPG, maybe better in some cases.

If the question had been if that's a good plan for all or even most collectors, that's different.

Sadly, I have had multiple chances to buy some pretty "big" cards, and pretty much never did. The local dealer came back from either the national or philly with a 52 Mantle that had sold for a record price, and over the next few years had maybe 3-4 of them. They were expensive at the time compared to other cards, so I don't mind as much. But there were a few others.... :(

Bahahaha...that was a good one!

Any card like this would be IMMEDIATELY bought/flipped by a dealer to be holdered before any one of us made it in the show. Even with a dealer badge

So you’d buy a seemingly near mint raw 52 Mantle for let’s say the price of a PSA 6? I’m certain you wouldn’t. No one would unless that person works the PSA slabbing machine. I’m not sure you understand the point made. We’re not suggesting one can’t spot an altered card; we’re saying that the value the PSA slab brings (rightly or wrongly) is the determining factor of value, not the razor sharp edges.

The only things that would prevent me from doing that.
Money- What's a 6 go for now? Sort of doesn't matter since I don't have that much.
Interest - That's a ton of dough, especially for a double print. :D Of course, I could grade it and flip it and be in great shape.

A someone else pointed out, It's extremely unlikely I'd even be offered the card. I did some work for a stamp dealer, and he made more in the hour before the show opened than the rest of the day. Paid me really well, as me setting up freed him to make more deals. There was some stuff he bought and flipped in that hour that never even made it back to the table. And stuff that never saw retail as it was intended for other dealer at the next weeks show.

But lets say I have the money, and am offered the card. If I could inspect it in person, yes, I might buy it. The only difference between buying that and buying stuff in my range like 52Topps commons in similar grades is that the picture is different and it costs more. Of course I'd examine it more closely than a cheaper card, but from a technical standpoint, it's the exact same decision.

There's a reason seemingly near mint Hall of Famer cards on the BST that are raw are offered at a fraction of the PSA 7-8 value they would receive if graded don't sell. There's a reason why near mint Hall of Famer cards in non-PSA or SGC slabs are offered for a fraction of the value of the identically graded PSA or SGC slabs -- it's because people know the cards are altered or else they'd be in PSA or SGC slabs. There's also a reason no one would ever sell a raw, near mint 52 Mantle -- because he'd be leaving huge money on the table by not getting it slabbed by PSA, because every buyer would assume the card was altered. Which is why no one would ever buy a raw, near mint Mantle for the price of a PSA 6 when the card "looks" like it might be a PSA 7. The difference between a PSA A and a PSA 6 for a 52 Mantle is around 50K. You'd risk 50K to make 50K when the odds are clearly not in your favor?

So lets say the card is at a 6 price, but looks like it could be a 7. I'm confident enough that I could tell if it was altered that I might go for it.
Assuming I don't find anything that would keep it from being a 6, worst case, it comes back a 6 and I've paid full price and will have to wait a bit to flip it. (Or, if I happen to have that much to spend on cards not flip it.) Best case, it comes back a 7 and I have a slightly tougher choice, keep the bargain or flip it.
I would be far less confident if it was a decision between a 7 and 8 and still less if it was between an 8 and 9.

I totally get that hardly any cards of HOF players that are really nice will be offered ungraded. And if I was selling any of my better cards like that I'd probably get them graded. But they are out there, and not every situation is a purchase from a dealer.

The only way to make it anymore as a collector without a nearly unlimited budget is to know more and have a good eye for things. It works better in other hobbies, where the difference between the cheap and expensive is in details that even most dealers don't bother to check for.

But how would a raw 52 Mantle make it to the National at all? Why would it be there at the largest gathering of collectors and not be graded for maximum value? Seeing a raw 52 Mantle should be an immediate flag at any venue, most notably the National. There's no reason for it to be there other than it can't be graded.

So for a big ticket item I take a black light, jewelers loupe or digital microscope, and a gram scale. I measure the card and, for the most part I research the particular card and set before hand -what are the major traits of the card and go from there. It's tougher to do this when it's in a holder. But on the other hand, isn't it suppose to be thoroughly examined by the grader at that point?

You need dark to use a blacklight. The National is an open bright place.

The grading services have so influenced this hobby that even if you have a perfectly good unaltered and original raw card, you simply can't sell it without offering a deep discount. You are forced to get it graded whether you want to or not. The perception would be that it is altered and was rejected.

The graders have too much power. Power to the people!

agreed!

Of course. And the same goes for seemingly very valuable cards in non-PSA/SGC holders.

I used my blackllght at the national (on photos), and I would have to go underneath a draped table to use it :) I assume many dealers won't let you do that with a Mantle :)

Would a canvass bag work or possibly even a heavier paper back work? Put the card and the black light in the bag and open the bag up enough to look inside. I haven't tried it (yet), but that might work.

Or for the McGyvers, rig up a 400 count-ish sized box with a black light and hole big enough for your cell phone camera.

My old blacklight that I need to get working again was usable in a room that was sunlit but not brightly. I never tried it in direct bright light.

But the Versalume was a bit bulkier than the pocket ones that are common.

Email from PWCC
 

I received the mass email from PWCC with the following title:

Accepting Submissions, Deadline 7/10 - Noteworthy Cards On Display At National Convention

I literally spit out the coffee I wasn't drinking

surely you didn't think PWCC would NOT be at the national????

except around Gizmo

Yes. In fact, rock and gem collectors use that bag technique in the field.

Thanks for all the replies.


Even though a few of you sort of brushed it off as "business as usual", and also many (rightfully so) added that the National might not be the best time to buy certain cards due to inflated prices...... It is also one of the few times for many people that they can see specific rare items ALL YEAR.

I think we all knew that many people looking at higher end cards, (and I realize that means differing items/prices for all of us)...... many people looking at making higher end purchases were already bringing loupes, blacklights, and other items to help examine their purchases.

I never thought it would be full on chaos this year LOL, but I can't help but think people using tools to examine their higher end purchases will be more prevalent this year because of recent events.


I hope as the National approaches, a few of you could share your insight and your experiences this year, here in this thread for those of us that can't make it.

Thanks again for the responses. :)

I posted long ago that will be in the buyers arsenal in negotiations to question if the Cert is clean. Will be supply and demand. If theres someone making an offer and the dealer doesnt need to haggle with price due to a clean cert than that buyer will get the card and you can keep your loupe or black light to yourself

Also why get a raw card with just at best recourse against the dealer if there is some time of warranty etc versus having a dealer and PSA guarantee/warranty

why not have a second option. Yeah maybe in the end get nothing but at least there are two chances instead of one. PSA has paid people for mistakes in grading. In the situations they have paid, i doubt the seller would of paid on them all if PSA didnt.

I bought a raw Kalamazoo Bat card from a dealer at the 2006 National. He garunteed me it would grade as it had a slant cut. PSA turned it down saying it had been trimmed. I took it back to the dealer who promptly walked to the PSA booth and told them that they were all hand cut at the factory. They said, oh ok... bring it back and we will slab it. It recieved a 3 grade and everyone left happy.

Calvin! Does this mean there are NO cards that are raw that are not altered? So it is not worthwhile to send any more cards in to any TPG? It is either already graded or raw and altered. Thats it. Close down the TPGs there are no more cards to grade
"Mike" drop

Who gave the power to the TPGs? The people. Card community buys the product blindly resulting in power shift to where it now stands.

Are MLB players overpaid? Millions to play a game but NOT overpaid because the fans buy the product

"Mike" drop