1932 US Caramel Babe Ruth
 

This is my first post to this site. I collected baseball cards through my late teens and stored them away until now. The Black Swamp Find peaked my curiosity a few years ago and has renewed my interest. I’m working towards securing a few, higher-value cards to hold onto for my kids.

I was looking through the Auction sites and started researching the 1932 US Caramel Babe Ruth. Based on the notes there and on PSACard.com, it looks like there are two of this card rated at NM-MT 8. The sales prices varied as follows:

$16.7K in 11/04
$22.7K in 8/12
$42.8K in 2013 (month not shown)
$35.9K in 11/13
$83.7K in 5/16
$52.8K in 2/18
$33.6 in 4/28

Any ideas why there has been such a large swing in prices on this card?
Does it make sense that there are just two of these cards being bought and resold regularly?
If there are two cards rated the same, does it make sense that they would have two very different prices?

Thx, Joe

If you look at the page, you'll see 5 different cert numbers for this card, meaning there's at least 5 of them.

https://www.psacard.com/auctionprice...ues/360704#g=8

Click on the Pop report and you'll see there are 13 rated PSA 8 and 2 at PSA 9.

Addition: Yes, there are swings in the prices of individual cards, and not all PSA 8's are worth the same. Centering on a PSA can vary up to like 65/35 on the front (one border twice as large as the other side) and 90/10 on the back (9 times larger on one side than the other). Cards with better centering and eye appeal have been selling for a premium in the previous years than those with worse centering or print defects.

I wouldn't trust most prices from spring and summer 2016, a period of manipulation IMO.

That's great info. Thx. I'm sure these questions are basic so please accept my apologies as I learn.

I see the last sale on HA was rated through SGC. Are those the main two companies? It shows an 88, NM/MT 8. Is that the same rating scale as the 6 different certificates shown for PSA 8? Are there are rating agencies out there that might help determine the total population of cards available?

Both PSA and SGC have online population reports.

Here is PSA.
https://www.psacard.com/pop/

Thx!

Beckett is the third and only remaining respected grading service with a registry. The others you may see are out of business or mom and pop setups. Populations are also deceiving because many of those cards are no longer in holders having been broken out to attempt to increase the grade of moved to the slab of a favored grading company.

Personally, I would buy this card or any expensive prewar card only in a PSA or SGC holder.

That makes sense. I'm really concerned about fraud, so paying the buyer's fee on a site like Heritage is painful, but gives me piece of mind. Is it safe to assume purchases on those site are the real deal? Do you ever double check after a large purchase to confirm the legitimacy? Are those holders welded together once rated?

Thx! Again, very helpful.

Can you expound on this a bit? Why do you think this happened?

I would be confident that cards on a major AH site are authentic and not reprints or fakes. However, in my opinion, trimmed and otherwise altered cards are pretty common in the hobby especially in the higher grades, so IF you care about that educate yourself and do the best you can. As long as the card is slabbed though it shouldn't affect the value. The holders are sealed, yes, although they aren't very difficult to break apart, they're just plastic.

I don't mean to be a smart ass but it happened because some relatively well to do people saw the opportunity. It's been discussed at length on this forum if you do some looking around, maybe use "manipulation" as a search term.

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...ighlight=group

Basically there were a couple of people (5 according to the owner of PWCC in an article) who were buying up a group of post-war rookie cards to influence the market. Mainly 1952 Mantle, 1954 Aaron, 1955 Clemente, 1955 Koufax, 1963 Pete Rose. Prices increased 300%-500% for the cards in the same grades in a span of a few months.

One more recommendation when using PSA's auction prices tool, make sure the prices you're seeing are for the correct card and not a complete set headlined by that card. If the card is part of a group, they will remove that price point from their database if you click the "report this item" button.

Ah, that makes sense. Thx for the background. I will watch for the pricing too on PSA's auction tool, too.