The future of Shohei Ohtani
 

Another Angel with some interesting possibilities.

Does he:

Continue as he is for another 5+ years guaranteeing himself first ballot HOF and a unique place in baseball history?

Continue as he is for only a couple more years and then settle in as either a pitcher or everyday player but not both and finish out a still distinguished HOF career?

Fall off drastically not too far into the future from the toll on his body?

Something else?

Where do you see this unique and fabulous player ending up?

Goes down as the GOAT in baseball.:)

I think he will sign a long term contract, stay on the West Coast (With Dodgers the Favorite), and Pitch 4 to 5 years max and be the DH now and the rest of his career.

At 28, I think he has another 5 years of peak performance before he starts to deteriorate. How he moves forward as a player will depend on what deteriorates first. Is it his arm and he becomes a DH? Or does the league figure him out as a hitter and he continues as a starter?

I obviously think he loses some luster if he can't play both sides of the game. Not sure he's worth half a billion as solely a hitter or pitcher, or if he'll continue to be a HOF caliber player at just one of those positions.

I hate to be a pessimist in this situation, but Ohtani is one injury away from never returning to this form again. What he's doing is remarkable, and I hope he will be able to keep up some semblance of this production, but I do not think it's likely.

It seems, more and more nowadays, that players bodies break down faster. Maybe due to the hyper specialization of sports nowadays, or the fact players are pushing themselves to their physical limits when it comes to pitching and hitting. I can see Ohtani maintaining this level of dominance for another two to three seasons before his body suffers the same fate. He might have to choose at that time what he wants to do more, hit or pitch.

I do not think he becomes the "GOAT" as I think that any notion, of that conversation, is absurd. You cannot possibly compare a player today to a player of 100 years ago. The world is an entirely different place. Furthermore the only way you could possibly measure that would be era adjusted statistics, which even then is spotty, because they are not infallible. I however, think, he's one of the most talented players to ever do it, certainly one of the most versatile, and I think we should all leave it at that.

I don't think there's a real path to eclipsing Babe Ruth. Even on a season to season basis he'll never do what Ruth did.

But I think there's something to be said for his overall skill in today's game where pitching and hitting are probably at their peaks in terms of difficulty. What he's doing now is otherworldly but not the best you've ever seen at either skill.

of interest

The Giants Just drafted #16 a player out of High School that Pitches and Plays first base.
He is Bryce Eldridge and is listed as a 2 way player.

They drafted Reggie Crawford last year too.

I remember when the Rays had really high hopes for Brendan McKay but it didn't work out.

Very true and like usual the Draft is alot of luck with so many high upside prospects never make it

I'll check Blowout, his superduperfractor is probably selling for 100K already.

Agree with most of this. Also not to be pessimistic, but I hate to bring up the obvious fact that if Ohtani gets this huge contract everybody is predicting for him based his recent production, he's going to perpetually be a ligament strain away from being a Half a Billion Dollar DH. Essentially, peak level J.D. Martinez.

I do think if he stays relatively injury free for the rest of this season, and socks away a 2nd MVP Award, he's pretty much a HOF lock, just based on his ground-breaking achievements thus far.

I don't know if he'd be a lock. His pitching stats are good for what they are but miniscule in terms of HOF caliber. He has 35 career wins and is already 28 years old. I don't know how realistic more than 100 wins would be if he continues to split time as a hitter.

He'd have to hit 30 home runs for the next 11 plus seasons to reach 500 as well. No shot at 3,000 hits.

If he can't do both at a high level for four or five more seasons, I'm not sure he's sniffing the HOF.

I don’t think he’s going to need the counting stats to get in, or even anything close to them.

The HOF will make whatever accommodations necessary to accept him into the hall as soon as possible. He would not need to play 10 seasons or wait 5 years, and any barrier will be removed by decree, like they did with the Ohtani Rule where they changed the dh rules to fit him. And I agree 100%.

He is the best DH who is also a starting pitcher every 5-6 days. He may even be the best current DH this year.

He is also the best starting pitcher who DHs every day as well.

He leads the league in both hitting and pitching counting stats.

Has anyone ever led the league in both triples and opponent’s batting average?

He really cannot be compared to other hitters or pitchers, at least until he is challenged on both fronts by a single player.

Unique and extremely talented. Koufax had 4-5 exceptional years. He is on track to match or exceed that. He will not need the longevity of Warren Spahn to reach Cooperstown.

The Angels added a decent supporting cast this year for Shohei. Unfortunately they are all now injured, except for Shohei. He never looks fatigued either batting or pitching. I wish him well.

I didn’t mean to imply he can’t reach the HOF without what are considered milestone stats. Just that if he’s going to get in he will have to produce like this for another 5 or so seasons to get in.

I know he’s incredible but he hasn’t done much yet. It’s only been six seasons and he was hurt for one even though it was short for everyone.

'Cause if you really want to hear our views
You haven't done nothin'

Stevie Wonder

All I gotta say is let's enjoy the show and watch him play and let history take care of himself.

Regardless of the # of wins or Homeruns if he keeps this up for approx 5 more years even if he does not have te "Big Stats" of either pitcher or hitter he will be in the HOF for the sheer dominance and skill of the Pitching and hitting combined.

Well his most recent comment suggest, to no ones surprise, that he hates losing which means he will most likely not be back with the Angels next year. I'm not sure how much longer he is going to continue to do both, but I think the choice is obvious, if he eventually decides to specialize in one area, and that is to keep hitting.

I think some of the posts on stats are ignoring the historic actions of the hall. Negro League stats were not official prior, this did not hold back elections of those players. The same can be said for the small amount of Cuban players.

Up to now, Japanese and other international stats have been ignored. This is not the tradition of the Basketball HOF or Hockey HOF and I see some changes possible in the future to be more inclusive as a logical progression with these current moves of stat adjustments. I expect more Cuban elections and perhaps a well deserved recognition of Sadaharu Oh.

Ohtani could be that player to move the needle and open that door. I don't see the impact he had on Japanese ball being ignored in it's entirety.

Again, this is crazy early talk...anything can happen. I think he's well on his way and already the better player on a team that has Mike Trout on the roster. Although, I think we need to see where he sits in five years.

Angels will not trade with the Dodgers is the rumor and

WOW he hit homer #35 and is ahead of Judges pace

I'm not sure about this. I'd have to go check box scores, but his pitching W-L record has been impacted, often, by lack of run support and sub-par bullpen performances. He could well have had an additional 7-8 wins over his short career which would push his W-L percentage to an exceptional .700. You look at him and he has this boy-ish look on him all the time that says "I want to play as much as possible." If he gives up pitching, which I hope he does not, I wonder if he also becomes a field position player. He's such a great athlete that it would be hard to imagine that they wouldn't be able to find a spot for him off the mound.

Slightly off subject, but I wanted to mention a statistical oddity (which I have not personally double-checked) posted on facebook yesterday:


The the first 674 games of their careers:

Ruth had 159 homers
Ohtani had 160 homers


Through 455.0 Innings Pitched:

Ruth was 35-18
Ohtani was 35-19


If true, it is just a real cool oddity, not an intended comparison of the two players.


.

Great Stats and amazing how close

Well, after checking, the pitching stats are correct, but not the games played.


still, fairly cool.


I have nine different books on Ruth in my library...won't live to see that many in any form on Ohtani- just glad to be around to witness him.


.

IT feels like Ohtani is either auditioning for teams or playing video games.

He is playing the game like it was a video game and just dominating in everything he does.

He is putting on a clinic against the Yankees as if he is auditioning for them or someone else.

He is hitting for power for average for extra base hits and pitching pretty good also.

Special player and will love to see how is career totals and his story ends up

At this point, I think it's obvious that he should just be a position player full time. I understand he's a talented pitcher, but the risk of getting hurt as a pitcher is much higher, and he's already had one TJ surgery.

I mentioned it in a past thread but I wonder if he were to theoretically sign with the Yankees whether they’d be interested in him pitching or not. I would doubt it and think they’d prefer him as a DH only. They didn’t let Ruth pitch too often and that was a much simpler time.

I think the plan would be to eventually convert him into a full time DH with maybe the occasional spot start?

Shohei is really fast and has an incredible arm. If he is not going to pitch, I don't know why, at a minimum, you wouldn't put him in the outfield. He has played the position before for the Angels, and is probably more than capable of becoming an above average fielder in right or left if that was his day-to-day assignment. Let your DH be a big guy that can't run/field very well.

I do not think playing the outfield would diminish his offensive stats significantly. Plus, if he continues to practice pitching, there is always the threat of a double switch in an inning with three righties, just to mess with the opposing manager's head.

I think he and his agent are going to want to do both as long as possible.

It is what makes him unique from others and it is what helps add to his contract value

Especially with him being great at both.

And usually when he gets “pitching hurt” and cannot pitch he has been able to still be the DH.

And with him Being the DH it minimizes the risk of injury as a position player.

He can see him signing a long term contract (8 to 10 years) and doing the pitching for 4 more years or so(perhaps more since he is not wearing down from playing in the field) and then switching to hitting only. But I do not see this happening for at least 4 more years of pitching

Shelled again tonight. 3.71 ERA. Damn.

Did Ohtani pitch tonight? I thought it was Oviedo who gave up 5 in 4.

5 runs in 6.1 but still won the game.

I agree that NPB stats deserve more recognition, but with Ohtani I don’t think they would make much difference since he has actually been more dominant in MLB than he was in Japan. In five years in Japan he only hit a total of 48 home runs, fewer than he is likely to hit this year alone. His pitching was better, but he only amassed 42 wins, so it doesn’t move the needle much.

NPB stats would be way more relevant for guys like Hideki Matsui whose career numbers in both MLB and NPB are “good” but not “great” when viewed in isolation, but become very impressive when combined.

Ichiro is just weird since he basically had two HOF careers in each country, something that is unlikely to ever happen again.

Ohtani wasn't at his best tonight but surprisingly he got some run support and the bullpen did their part. Nice to see!

Gave up four home runs and did not get a hit but

Struck out 9 went 7 innings and got the win

Walked 3 times and scored twice.

Amazing what he can do when he has a “BAD” night

I'm going to read that smiley face as sarcasm.

When he approaches his 94th career pitching win (and gets 65 in a 3 year span), and his 714th homer, and raises his career batting average, slugging percentage and OPS to higher than his current 2023 career best numbers, THEN we can talk about him being the greatest of all time.

I get it, he's really good, but come on...

Doug "Mark Fidrych was great too" Goodman

Well said Doug. If he keeps going he should be in the HOF and he will be know has a Dynamic and exciting player. He may go down as one of the most popular and famous players but long long way to go to be the GOAT

He is unique and great in his own way and will and look forward to the next 5 plus years with excitement. He is must watch Tv

He has to continue to pitch. If he's just going to DH, then he's chasing Harold Baines and Chili Davis as the greatest DH of all time.

I agree he does have to continue to pitch several more years before converting over. And then wow 10 plus years of pitching and then the extra years of hitting. It would be truly legendary
But regardless I think he is better than Blaine’s of Davis (no disrespect to them) so I do not believe that is a good comparison.

And in my opinion Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz are considered the 2 greatest DHs’

And as an aside Othani went deep again and is on pace for 58 homers while still betting over .300

And now for the double header


Game 1 0 for 5 but a complete game 1 hit shut out. Wow
Game 2 launches his 37 homer and 38th homer

I know they would not do it but would love to see him play the field.

Yes sir!

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

I think it is interesting that 45% of respondents in a poll of MLB players this year said they would build a team around Ohtani. Aaron Judge was second with 14% of the vote.

And this is a guy who doesn't speak English well, so probably cannot command the clubhouse.

If he has that sort of respect from the players with whom he plays and against whom he competes, it means a lot. And it probably impacts any HOF vote.

Do you have a link to that poll? Personally I'm surprised Judge is #2 with his injury issues.

Here it is:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...chose%20Ohtani.

https://theathletic.com/4598257/2023...ansion-ohtani/

Thanks - looks like Acuña is #3. That's who I would have guessed would be 2nd. Adley Rutschman #4

I think they made a mistake by not trading him. They are going to lose him in the off season and get nothing
They could have traded him and gotten a huge franchise altering return in return.

As for that poll Acuna definitely #2 and Judge lower perhaps still in top 5 to 8 range but with his injury tendencies other jump over him in the rating.
If healthy #2 or 3 but uncertainty of it lowers his standings

I totally agree, Jeff. And I don't think the Angels even make the wildcard this year.

Who is going to trade a franchise player for a guy about to become a free agent? The other team might as well just wait and see if they can sign him. Works both ways.

I don't think one has to speak English to be a leader, personal energy and field performance speaks to core values as a human and ball player.

I always thought all that locker room stuff was overblown anyhow. You don't win games in the locker room. Leadership is by example on the field.

Locker room negativity can definitely have an affect, ala Barry Bonds/Jeff Kent, Otahni brings more to the plate than that.

I wonder what Sadaharu Oh (he is still alive) thinks of Shohei Ohtani.

No one knows what Oh would have accomplished if he had come to major league baseball, but he averaged nearly 40 home runs a year for 22 years in Japan.
Oh never won a NPB game or even pitched in one. Oh walked a lot and Shohei is starting to see his walks increase as well. Comparing Oh to Ruth as a slugger is a speculative task. Not many would give the GOAT nod to Oh though.

If the Angels wanted to improve Shohei's offensive counting stats, they should have picked up Gehrig;) before the trading deadline to bat behind him. Of course a healthy and younger Trout might help in that regard, but Trout and Gehrig are post-prime and post-mortem at this point.

Shohei's future career in baseball is unknown, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 10 years. Now we can only guess and not consider our (judge)ments:D too seriously.

Trivia: Until I checked Oh's stats this morning I didn't realize the Sadaharu's mother was Japanese and his father was Chinese. In China he is known as
Wang Chen-chih. OH MY!

Trivia: Oh was the pitching ace of his high school team as though, but never pitched in the NPB.

Trivia: Oh competed in a home run derby in Japan with Hank Aaron, that Hank won 10-9.

The other team would not trade a franchise guy if I stated wrong I appologize

I meant they would get just a big Haul of Prospects that that could alter the franchise if those prospects develop and make impact in the MLB for the Angels instead of them getting nothing when He just walks away.

I know we want to be all pragmatic and analytical about this, but you don't trade a guy in the middle of a historic season like this, contract year or not.

I have a hard time believing there's a lot of Angels fans out there itching to "stockpile for the future", if it costs them the rest of the season with Ohtani.

Watching Ohtani do what he does, IS their playoffs and World Series, all rolled into one right now.

From an ownership perspective, if you think there's the slightest chance you might re-sign him...you don't even give him a hint that you might be shopping him around.

If you don't think you can re-sign him, you make all the money you can off him right now. Ride that marketing train for this historic season for the next decade and beyond. You trade him now for some teams 2nd and 3rd best prospects...all that comes to an end right now.

I highly doubt MLB in general wants him to change teams either. Will take the shine off his accomplishment if it's split between two teams...while you're also expecting him to just pick up where he left off, in a completely different clubhouse and environment from where he came from.

This guy is already walking a fine line with his health and durability. I don't think anything good can come with the added stress of packing up and moving somewhere else, mid-season.

I agree with that. I think if Sammy Sosa or Mark McGwire were impending free agents in 1998 there's no way the Cubs or Cardinals would have traded them.

Pack the parks and get the television ratings now. Then sell nick nacks and paddy wacks commemorating this season, from now until the end of eternity. That's how you get compensated for losing him at the end of the season.

:cool:

I hope I'm wrong (and I have been concerning this guy before), if Ohtani's body is as fragile as a lot of us suspect it may be, the Angel's best bet may be to cash in on his fame right now...and let somebody else pay roughly 1/2 a Billion $'s for him, for next year and beyond.

Interesting take... wouldn't it be much better for MLB if he was on a team with legitimate championship aspirations? Look at the LAA lineup - he's playing with a bunch of bums.

No, because that team would have had legitimate championship aspirations without him, also. He'd be a carpetbagger...a hired gun that got them across the finish line. He'd have no history with them otherwise.

I take this all back, if he goes to another team, wins 2 World Series Games and hits 5 HR's in the same series. :D:D

Mike Trout might take exception to that characterization. Moniak is hitting well over .300. The problem with the team is the bullpen. No bulls.

He can take exception to it from the bench, which is where he's been for the last month!

And forgive me if I've posted this before, but this remains one of favorites:

https://www.theonion.com/shohei-ohta...ere-1828835846

In the short term you are right he will put fans on the seats for the next few months, sell merchandise and get TV ratings.
When he leaves
Long term the seats will be emptier, the fans will buy less merchandise and ratings will be down.
Then someone else will pay the money to have him. And it will cost that team no player or prospects.
LA could have gotten a nice haul in return to hopefully make a winning team to help gain fans in seats, merchandise etc.

We will see what happens but I agree the next 2 months will be great for LA.

The next few years are the bigger question

They may have gotten a couple of future starting caliber players for him, but I doubt they would have pulled a "putting fans in the seats" type of player.

Teams don't normally give those guys up, and the Rookie contracts they are on, for a 2-3 month rental. They might for a full season of a top player...but not that short of a rental. I'm sure there might be a couple exceptions to the rule here, but unlikely the Angels would have struck gold on that front.

...and it's not just the next two months of capitalization for the Angels. This is the type of season they'll be able to merchandise for years to come...whether he's with them or not.

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

My money's on the Dodgers or the Padres. I know it's been a dumpster fire season in San Diego but they have crazy amounts of talent. And the proximity to Japan from the west coast is huge - I just don't see him going East

I would agree on your latter point. I certainly think East Coast is a long shot. If Cohen were to pony up 50 Million more than the next highest bidder though, I wouldn't be surprised if he accepted it. Padres are another interesting team, that I forgot about. California, to me, seems so dominated by the Dodgers and Giants, that I often forget about the Padres when it comes to these discussions!

supposedly the 2 biggest things he wants to Stay on west coast and be on a winning team
San Fran and LA Dodgers can both afford to put up a lot of money and LA is deep and a winning team
Cohen can out spend perhaps but not on West Coast and after trading everyone especially Verlander many do not trust their formula for a winning team and do not see them on a good path (at least in the short term for a winning team)

you might be right but prior to them saying he was not going to be traded most sports news outlets and papers were saying that they would get a tremendous hall for him.

But it a mute point now so they can enjoy their 2 months to say goodby

Who was offering a haul of prospects? All reports were that the Angels were not getting good offers. If the teams believed that he was only signing with a west coast team, they weren't offering much for a two month rental. The Angels would be better off trying to resign Ohtani and if they don't, take the draft pick at the end of round one instead of taking a bad offer.

Here is an article that talks about it from cbs sports as an example

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-farm-systems/

and another from Sports illustrated as another example

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/07/19/sh...dgers-phillies

Dodgers.

But especially with the team still in the playoff hunt, no way they could have traded him.

There are no actual trade offers in those articles. Writers like to throw out trades that have no chance of happening just to get clicks.

Has there were no offers because he was not made available or perhaps some were made behind closed doors and we will never know.

I am just showing what writers who no the industry (and some that may not) think offers that different teams would need to make it worth both teams.

They do that in every sport and then they grade the trades they occurs because that is what the mass of sports fans like seeing the analysis and the opinions to get a feel for how their teams and trades did

But again it is all moot since he was not made available for trade and the Angels will have him for 2 months and then we will see where he goes and how the Angels do going forward

Giants have a good chance of backing up the truck for Ohtani after missing out on Judge & Correa (thank god). They have a huge 23 acre development outside of the Park that will generate substantial income for the team. Spend away Giants, spend away...

Shohei Ohtani 2024 Team Odds
Team Odds Implied Probability
Los Angeles Dodgers +300 25.0%
New York Yankees +450 18.2%
San Diego Padres +450 18.2%
New York Mets +550 15.4%
San Francsico Giants +800 11.1%
Los Angeles Angels +1000 9.1%
Texas Rangers +1500 6.3%
Chicago Cubs +2000 4.8%
Boston Red Sox +2000 4.8%
The Field +1150 8.0%

When you look at the Angels and see that he leads the team in every meaningful batting and pitching stat, you just wonder how bad they would be if you replaced him with a bunch of prospects and maybe a three or four Tier 2 veterans. And a previous poster is right in that Ohtani's less than fluent English probably doesn't hamper his ability to lead the team. So I take that back.

I'm going contrarian and predicting that he stays with the Angels long term. He's going to accept a lot less money than what he's worth in order to help them win a championship -- and he's going to go down as a legend in his adopted community. Something tells me he's listening to people like Ichiro, as opposed to the A-Rods of the world. And it would be better for the soul of baseball.

I grew up as a Mets fan, but please please please don't let him go work for that hedge fund guy.

Please.

You may right. However, the combination of a finger blister with a broken finger nail does not reach my definition of a fragile body. He had his Tommy John episode (who hasn’t). He never takes himself out of the lineup for aches and pains. He’s missed two games this year.

All in all one can only conclude he is a physical wreck. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I suspect this forum would have had the same pessimism with regards to Ruth in 1920. (Or not)

The future hasn’t happened yet is all I can say. I liked Mays in 1954.

For me it’s say hey for Shohei. :):D:D

I wish him well.