PWCC Auction Ending Tonight - Interesting Results
 

Seems to me that prices so far are very low. Currently, I am not bidding with them. But I have been watching the auction, and each of these lots finished way below recent sales: E90-1 Cobb PSA 5; T206 Matty dark cap PSA 6; T206 Young with glove SGC 6; E98 Cobb PSA 9, which ended at $20,900. This last one is particularly noteworthy bc, according to VCP, this is at least $5000 less than any E98 Cobb PSA 9 has sold for since at least 2013; it’s $10k less than the same exact card “sold” for a month ago in a PWCC auction; and almost every sale since 2013 has been $30k+

Is this just a down auction or is all this “stuff” taking it’s toll on PWCC. Thoughts?

Ryan, you could be on to something with PWCC, but I don’t think the time of the year helps either. After the National, a bunch of big auction houses have had their auctions finish up recently, and thousands of lots have just wiped out many bank accounts. Every year this Aug-Sept period appears a bit soft to me.


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Maybe people will stop consigning. It would be well deserved.

Maybe counsel has advised them that shill bidding during an investigation is a bad look...

That's what I was thinking. There was no where near the same amount of last second bidding like there usually is.

Auction
 

I guess, I would agree with Ryan that the prices seemed low last night. I also think that Petes comment about the timing of the auction / people being tapped out has merit. As for the PSA 9 E98 Cobb, I think that card would have reached 35k plus in other auctions as they have been bringing nearly 40 in other major auctions recently. People consigning items should go where they can get the best price for their item. 1 + 1 still equals 2, right?

perhaps your opinion on the cobb is biased?

Do not forget the FOOTBALL factor September is a bad month to sell Baseball.

My thoughts exactly. Always different when one has skin in the game

I think the E98 Cobb didn’t receive a higher bid is because most collectors are concerned that tomorrow another 100 pristine Cobbs could show up — which brings all sorts of questions including relating to authenticity of these high grade E98s. And why spend 30K on a card like that when you can spend it on a rare Cobb which will stay rare? I’ve got an extensive Cobb collection and for these reasons I’d never buy a high grade E98 Cobb.

Cobb
 

I respect your opinion and your Cobb collection, but I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing another batch of high end E98 cards. And yes, I am a bit biased on the E98 Cobb. Also VERY happily to have one and I'm not alone. I think the next time that a 9 is offered in a non-PWCC auction it is close to 40. Beautiful cards IMO.

40????? Not even close to 30. The only way that card reaches 40 is if the starting bid is 40 - and just one person pulls the trigger.

not to hijack this thread...or beat on anyone...but according to VCP e98 cobb psa9 is trending lower than in the past.

With the current scandal rocking the hobby the mentality that everything just keeps going up over time will be shown to be untrue...imho of course.

Definitely not true.
Actually, except for conspiracy theorists there is no authenticity question on the Black Swamp cards. The rest of the stuff I agree with and have almost always gone for rarity over condition.
I have held off bidding on some cards due to the scandal. I can't imagine collecting high grade stuff after what has been shown. But many, if not most collectors, have stuck their head in the sand or don't care if they have high grade altered cards in their collections. Personally it would bug me.

There could be several factors as to why PWCC isn't getting the prices right now. We all know what they are.

I think the scandal affects the higher grade stuff more than anything else due to skepticism.

You say it effects,

I say it affects.

Let’s call the whole thing off.:D

Fred and Ginger on roller skates -- classic.

I need to agree with Leon on this one. The BSW cards have provenance...if one wants to purchase a high grade card, now more than ever provenance is important. My reason for picking one up while I was able. And yes, I think close to 40k in the next non-PWCC auctions for a PSA 9...I think the average sale for BSF 9s is in the 35k to 38k range based on past PSA 9 sales.

Excuse my millennial brain. To hell with the English language and its complications. This is why we make things simpler by leaving out letters and using acronyms. So thx 4 correcting me. FWIW, I learned sumthing. :o ;)

My post had the intended effect.:D

I also do not question the authenticity of the BST cards...just the value based on plentifulness!

Rarity over grade anyday everyday in my book!!!!!!

Ethan, with all respect, and I'm not trying to harsh your buzz, but the card went for under 21K because that's what it's worth. Maybe on a good day it's worth 25K? Had your SGC 9.5 been won in a bidding war I'd tend to have more empathy for your argument but you were the only one who bid on it -- for a reason. No one else wanted it at 36K -- for a reason. Unlike you, additionally, I have no personal financial bias for my argument, i.e. I wasn't the sole bidder on the card which makes up the bulk of my collection.

Maybe the shillers are not consigning.

That may be what people here are saying. In this hobby, cards often don't sell, or "sell", for what they are worth.

I haven't trusted, or at least take with a large grain of salt, hobby "final prices realized at auction" for a long, long time. Beyond artificially raised prices due to shilling and valuations based on these artificially high or false prices, we all know that VCP and other 'price realized' lists include "sales" where there was no sale. And, with the current scandal, the hobby is realizing that, even if there was a sale, they can't even be sure what was sold-- though they sometimes find out the next week on BO.

Fake cards, or fake grade cards as in the case of the current scandal, can affect the market values of the cards that are known and proven to be real. Fro Joy Ruths are perhaps the best example. We know which Fro Joy Ruths are genuine, but all the past confusion has been "institutionalized" into the book and market prices. When sellers have to give each every potential bidder a history lesson, two-page essay and links to further reading to explain that "this PSA 9 is considered genuine but those others we don't know about and some are probably false and, to be candid, there are serious and widespread questions in the hobby as to whether PSA can even identify if a card is altered or not," the market value for PSA 9s across the board will be affected.

Are you suggesting that the PSA 9 E98 that sold last night in PWCC might not be authentic? If so, I disagree. Back to Pete's point, there were two other major auctions taking place when I picked up my 9.5, so potential bidders could have been tapped out or committed to other cards. Either way, I'm happy with my card and would likely have paid more for it if I had to. If you look around, I think that you will find that the high grade Ty Cobb E98s have sold recently in the $37,500 range...you can disagree with me, but my opinion is that they will continue to be sought after by collectors in the right auctions.

Let’s get back to the generally low prices of the pwcc auction and off the specific e98 Cobb.

Jeff, I just shot you an email on a totally unrelated (fun card stuff) matter.

David, fake sales prices are usually high ones, not low ones like the E98 last night.

And Ethan, no, I think the PSA 9 that sold last night is authentic. I just think high end E98s are not for everyone with money because of the huge populations in high grades. It's just not that special a card to everyone for that reason. The important thing is you love your card and that's all that should matter, no need to flog it here.

Exactly...... the tide is turning over there.... the so called market, developed by them, in the general/grand scheme of things is set up perfectly for a major pull back.......

expect more black swamp cards to hit the market for the first time in the coming months and years. this isn’t an opinion. it doesn’t question the authenticity of any of the bsf cards. it just means they are many more of them than was disclosed at the time of the find. nothing wrong with that either.

I have heard the same thing, that the family, or perhaps it was only some family members, held a large portion back. I guess these finds can be a double edged sword. I recall there was a huge find of high number 52 Bowmans at one point that drove prices way down.

Bsf
 

My understanding is that all BSF cards have now been graded by SGC or PSA. There was another wave of them -- I believe from a family member that held their portion of the cards back. That said, some BSF cards (like others) will move back and forth from SGC and PSA holders. If you think about it, the high grade E98 cards, even post BSF are quite rare compared to many collectible issues out there.

It will be interesting to see how PWCC auctions fair in the coming months.

Frank oh frank!!

22 PSA 9s (Cobb) is quite rare??? Compared to what?

1979 Topps
1980 Topps
1981 Topps

I thought 9k for the e90-1 Cobb psa 5 was about where I expected to end. I certainly wouldn't say way below market value. There is another that's been sitting at just under 11k on ebay.

Just saying the post BSF combined population report for all (color variations) E98 Cobbs is 139...pretty rare considered to the combined population of his T-206 cards, no?

yes, but the percentage of that 139 that is high grade is crazy compared to the percentage of T206. Coupled with the lower demand (and believe it or not the BSF cratered overall demand for the set) and it's just a tough spot economically for the top end cards. When a set has no graded examples over 6, and then suddenly the total population triples and nearly ALL the new cards are OVER 6 it's not great. I know a few guys who had completed, or were working on sets who got out of them after BSF because their PSA 4 average sets were now pointless.

The one on eBay is wicked diamond cut, regardless of grade. And the only PSA 5 sale since 2018 was a pretty one in memory lane for just under $10.9k. Perhaps $8900 is not way below market, but there is no way either the consignor or pwcc is happy with that result.

That's exactly what I said (or implied).

The strikingly low auction price(s) may be because it's a real, honest sale without the common hobby "bells and whistles" (euphemism).

The set had many examples graded above a 6 before the find. Not a lot and they were rare. But I know of at least one set that probably averaged 7 or so...before the find.

However, depending on how things go the BSF cards might gain some steam because of their provenance and all of the fraudulently altered cards in high grade holders without provenance except back to Moser types. So maybe really high grade unaltered cards, in holders or not, will be more valuable in the future. I am not the only doubting Thomas concerning high grade vintage in numerical holders. Eventually I will get a BSF card because I want one. The time hasn't been right yet and I doubt I get a very expensive one either. I would like it nicely centered though. :)

Not sure where I heard that the highest grade pre was a "6" but shame on me for passing it along unresearched.

Sure, riddle me this. Why were they so miscut, when not a single example had ever surfaced before nor after bearing this trait?

I predicted in another thread that this Cobb would sell for quite a bit less than its last auction appearance, so I am not surprised at all. There are simply too many BSF cards, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the appearance is the same ones keep being offered for sale again and again. When was the last time anyone has seen a major auction without multiple BSF cards? There seems to be a never ending supply, and the market is burned out.

Add to that the possibility that the family held back a lot more E98's, and you can see why prices are going down. There is no sense of these being rare. Instead, they are seen by many as The Black Swamp Glut.

1988 Donruss Gregg Jefferies
1990 Sportflics (any)

Sportflix??? No!!!!!!!!! I was told mine was the only one!

Bsf
 

So, let me try offer some perspective. There are 139 (combined pop SGC and PSA) E98 Cobb cards and 136 (combined pop SGC and PSA) 1914 Cracker Jack cards...someone else in this thread has said that maybe 22 or so of the E98 Cobbs were mint+...if the same find applied to another issue like the "rare" 1914 CJ Cobb is it safe to say that people wouldn't be clamoring to get a high graded example? Or is it that people just don't like the pose of the E98. Lol.

To each their own. I love having a piece of what I see as a once in a lifetime find. The cards are stunning to hold in hand. I think I've said my piece on this topic...

Cheers!

Theory?

Cast offs? No clue but it always seemed strange most these examples are unique in that way

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A run that was rejected perhaps, and now people are paying 50K for one.:D

Aint that a kick in the rear! I always felt the real nice centered minor HOFers in psa 9 would eventually see a spike in price.

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I suppose it’s possible that whoever originally owned the black swamp cards had them in uncut sheets and may be hired out someone to cut them and maybe that’s how they got cut that way??

Yet as soon as I typed this I realize that doesn’t make sense how does one account for there being so few Jennings cards?

Perhaps a new thread should be started to discuss these cards? Are there known e98 uncut sheets??

Almost no Mathewsons, right?

I believe so?

Very few, if any, cards of Jennings, Lajoie, Mathewson, Tinker and Walsh.

This. :)
Not sure why there were fewer of certain players but there is 0 doubt in my mind, and most other collectors, that the cards are real and authentic....and almost untouched. BTW the family members couldn't have been nicer. I met them at the National (with Heritage) when they were originally found.

The PWCC auction had some lower prices but we'll just have to see how it goes in the future. I imagine a lot of factors play into it and one of them is less bidders.

How are the non-find E98s selling?

The Blues, which none were in the BSF, have seen stronger prices over the last few years from what I’ve seen.


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You still thinking the next PSA 9 E98 Cobb doesn't bring close to $30k?

I like red cards.

No need to be an arse.
For the record, people who follow others around the forum giving them a hard time, usually end up never giving them (or anyone) a hard time on this forum anymore.

Concerning the original subject I will offer my same comment from before....

The PWCC auction had some lower prices but we'll just have to see how it goes in the future. I imagine a lot of factors play into it and one of them is less bidders.


.

Reviving this thread to get your thoughts on the PWCC auction that ended last night. Namely, what did you think of the vintage offerings and final hammer prices in last night's auction?

I would loved to own the E92 Nadja Lajoie, which went cheap (40% less than the same card sold for 2008), but I am currently not bidding with PWCC.

I thought the two T206 Green Cobbs (PSA 4.5 and SGC 4.5) went cheap. I thought the M116 Blue Wagner, the T206 Lajoie and Wajo Portraits, and the T206 Matty PB, all went for about what they were worth. The one card I was watching that exceeded expectations was the T206 Tinker portrait PSA 6.

All-in-all, I thought the pre 1920-vintage offerings were relatively weak and I thought the prices were unremarkable, which is a good thing/sign.

Thoughts?

A lot of bargains to be had. I'm waiting for REA fall results to indicate if we are seeing a cool off in pre war vintage. It could just be a seasonal thing.

Either way i'm always impressed with the monthly PWCC consignments.

PWCC auction
 

I guess it depends what you were watching. A w517 Ruth psa 8 went for $5,555. Same card went for $1,503 in 2017.

Well I just sold a raw one that might garner a 2 for $500+ so $1503 is definitely low for today's market.

No doubt. I only watch what I watch and I can only comment on those items. That’s one of the reasons I request input from the board.

Ryan, the Nadja Lajoie definitely went cheaper than it should. I put in a half-hearted bid hoping to get lucky, but held back because of what is coming up in REA, HA, and LOTG. Had this card been posted a month ago, I would have definitely bid more than what the final price.

A signed 52t feller did 150$ about twice the going rate for a nice copy

Kudos to Ryan for continuing not to patronize PWCC. When hobby leaders speak with their wallets, the message will be heard. Bravo!

I had the Lajoie, Bender Cocoa and Clarke Pitts on my watch-list. I'm not a conscientious objector and would have bid if I thought I was getting a bargain. The auction season is getting ready to heat up for sure. Good luck, gang. Rob

I thought the prices were pretty strong for the key cards like HOF big name 1950s rookies and Ruth etc..

Jack, I appreciate the kind works (albeit overstated/misguided!).

I am not happy with PWCC or PSA, among others (PSA actually disgusts me most of all). And while I want neither to "go down", I do want them to make changes so that the hobby is more honest and accurate. Nobody changes without a catalyst. Perhaps these message boards and the awesome work that BODA is doing will be that catalyst; perhaps it will be this ongoing FBI investigation we hear about from time-to-time; perhaps it will be neither of these, but will be something else; or maybe there will be no changes because no catalyst is sufficient to force change. Who knows. All I know at this time is what I can control - my buying habits. And if enough of us speak with our wallets, perhaps we can collectively be a catalyst. So why not try?

I do think collectors' buying and selling habits are having a tangible effect on PWCC, at least with respect to pre-1920 vintage. I have found their last 3-4 auctions to be weak on 1920 and older, vintage offerings (especially T206), and I find the selling prices for the items they have offered to be weak. I believe this could be because less people are consigning with them and less people are bidding with them; I also think less people are shilling.

Please understand that I want very badly to start bidding with PWCC again -- historically they have great stuff and have been one of the best AHs for the cards I collect. But I will not bid with them until I am satisfied that they are more honest. And, I encourage everyone to act similarly toward anyone you believe has had a material role in perpetuating/encouraging the fraud and crime now being exposed . That is the least I/we can do.

Regarding PSA -- well that's a whole different story. I don't know how one collects and boycotts PSA. If I did that, I would have to pass on too many items, and considering that BVG is dogshit with vintage (yes, I said that -- Ryan Hotchkiss), and SGC has its skeletons and issues too, I might as well "hang'em up" if I cease collecting cards that happen to reside in PSA flips. And I don't want to give up collecting. I recognize that maybe that makes me a hypocrite. I struggle with this one.

collect what we are comfortable with
 

Well said, Ryan.
There is no way to not buy TPG graded cards if you are in our space and want really nice cards. So, I am just collecting things I am comfortable are not fraudulent. That means very few high grade pre war cards (never had many but really pass on them now.) will be getting my bids. When I see cards with micro borders in TPG holders I chuckle. Collect what you like and be careful, especially of cards in TPG holders. :)

+1 with the well said Ryan. In order to continue collecting what I like, TPG has to be an option. I do believe there are a ton of unaltered cards out there to be had. I know my preference have morphed some. Not only the meteoric rise in prices on nice mid-grade, but this recent scandal has caused me to accept some more flaws I may not have in the past. Still lovin the nice fat bordered T206's like Leon's above.

The problem with boycotting PWCC only is that it doesn't solve much. There are numerous AHs and other ebay sellers whose offerings are riddled with doctored cards. Anyone who thinks PWCC is the only, or even major, outlet for the card doctors is deluding himself.

Same point if the issue is shill bidding.

Yup.... Bad cards in PSA slabs are now everywhere. PWCC is a very small chunk of it.

Great point Peter.
Not to mention all the card show dealers and BST forums. I imagine it's under the radar widespread and the best solution is to reset every slab out there.
Start a new TPG and do away with BGS, SGC and PSA like the days of GAI and PRO.

In 30 years we can rinse and repeat once the new process gets dirty again.

I still think PWCC comes out of this stronger than ever. If the market is slowing overall then I get it. To say trend is isolated to PWCC would be too early to say.
I know there is a lot of focus and attention towards PWCC since they appear to be the most fluid and ground breaking AH service around. Go ahead bash on my opinion it's ok.

Yeah it only we could do a Noah's Ark thing...

Yes, the hobby is a mess, and it’s hardly restricted to PWCC. But there are plenty of other threads to state and restate that obvious fact. This thread is about PWCC and their most recent auctions. Can we please keep the comments here restricted to that. Thank you