10K for a Young portrait in a 5
 

OK.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-11-T20...p2047675.l2557

No way that's a 5. Seriously under graded.

Buy the card, not the holder.

Hey, it’s Certified Premium Quality! You can’t beat that!

Its PWCC. People throw their wallets at their auctions, even without the stickers. This one is definitely surprising though.

It looks like a 6 easily.

Bottom right corner looks rounded like a Beta Magic card to me. But rest of card looks really nice. Maybe a 5.5, but not a 6.

Edit: Beta reference is for Bobby.

look at the bid history. doubt it gets paid for, but it will look nice on VCP

The Matty and Wajo portraits also went for crazy prices.

All these ridiculous run ups on prices of some very common cards are starting to feel like the run up of the stock market in recent times...and we're all seeing how thats turning out?

I have to laugh. All these guys with under 100 feedback are jumping feet first into the mid grade t206 market!

High bidder: "Woops. Thought that was Cobb. Isn't that what Cobb looked like?"

I suppose you can call them common. But the top tier HOF'ers in EX5 and higher are seeing the market less often these days. 5-10 years ago eBay seemed to semi regularly have them available, through several basic Joe sellers like us. Honestly, they are now surfacing with not as much regularity. I bet the quantity of people in the demand department is also up significantly compared to 5-10 years ago. This grouping of major T206 HOF'ers was strong on condition for the grade - more so than other pwcc similar groups. I drooled, then checked my budget, then sat back and sighed - out of my price range anymore. Glad I picked up these puppies years ago and stashed them. I showed my wife some prices last night - she wants to sell a couple for new carpet, hmm, don't know about that.

I suppose only the future knows if these prices are for real or not...its certainly easy to justify them...or NOT!

Well when they come down to half....it might LOOK like a steal!

I think thats the "strategy" at work here to be honest with you!!

There are 81 PSA 5s, 34 PSA 6s, 19 PSA 7s, 14 PSA 8s, and 1 PSA 9—For a total of 149 Cy Young Portraits graded 5 or higher. I can’t get the SGC pop report to work right now, but let’s say its roughy the same, and we throw in some raw examples that haven't been graded for good measure, that brings the total pop of Cy Young Portraits graded EX or better to nearly 300.

It’s a great card and one of my favorite portraits in the set, but when there are nearly 300 others out there with identical if not better appearance, I just don’t see how you can justify paying $10k…but what do I know.

In supply & demand theory, the quantity supplied refers to the amount of a certain good that people are willing to supply when receiving a certain price. Yes, there may be quite a few (relatively) out there - but that does not mean they are out there willing to be supplied - aka "available". These cards are tucked away and stashed in collections and can be considered not even available. I have several, but I am not going to sell them, or even try to sell them. So basically, may cards are not in the supply quantity, I am not willing to supply them to the market. Probably same goes for a lot of collectors holding nice T206's - happy to just keep them and won't be seeing the market anytime soon. Therefore, the true market supply is lower than we may think.

Well I would argue somewhat that not many 5's are going to look as nice as that one, but I don't disagree with your larger point.

Thanks for posting this data. I have a very difficult time justifying the price as well, but I think it highlights how important eye appeal is in getting premium pricing. I very much doubt there is anywhere near 300 cards in this pop with the level of eye appeal as that card. I would guess that less than 20% of same or higher graded Cy Young portraits have similar centering and registration as the one sold. Centering and central image quality are more important than corners to many collectors. In addition, I think a lot of intelligent and/or skeptical collectors are focusing on mid-grade cards because it's less likely they were "worked on" than cards graded 8-10.

I think this is the best post in the thread. The fact is a well-centered Cy Young Portrait in a 5 is not common card at all. People seem to pay all sorts of premiums for a common T206 with a rare back because we can seemingly quantify the rarity via pop reports. If only we could quantify the rarity of very strong eye appeal cards, my anecdotal belief is that the premiums paid would not seem that outrageous. I'm sad to admit I check eBay and auctions on a daily basis for cards like Cy Portraits, and cards like that just don't appear that often in my observation. I can understand someone going strong if they're sick of waiting. I didn't buy it, by the way.

I have seen worse 6s that are worse than this 5. Clearly someone thinks it a 6 or better. It has great presentation. I would pay 6 price for it. I believe there was a 6 that last sold for 8000. I don’t think this price is outragous based on that sale.

It would not receive a 6 from PSA today. They are grading tougher than they were 20 years ago. If someone bought it expecting a bump, I think they'll spend a lot of money to get the card a 5.5, but no higher.

This PSA 5 Cy Young sold in Sept for $5k. And this SGC 5 sold on Nov 7 for $3.6k. The one that sold for $10k is nice, but not more than twice as nice, nice.

And yeah I agree that certain well-centered cards with nice registration are hard to come by, but certain cards are easier to find in these conditions than others. If you look at Worthpoint you'll find a lot of nice looking Cy Young Portrait examples.

The other top tier HOFers like Walter Johnson Portrait and Cobb Red Portrait (even though it's a superprint) I think are much tougher to find in great eye appeal condition.

And no I don't own any of these. And yes I'm jealous of those that do. :)

Oh how quickly we've forgotten 2016. I understand it's not quite apples to apples, but the bigger point still applies. The Koufax example could be replaced by dozens if not hundreds of others.

1955 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
- Prior to 2016, sells consistently under $2000
- Steadily climbs in price to May 2016 - when at least 4 cards sell over $6000, with a peak reported price of $6800
- July-Sept 2016 seems to settle back down in the $4000-4500 range (give or take 10%), with a couple exceptions as high as over $8000
- Steadily declines from there to $2500-ish first half of 2017
- Declines further during 2nd half of 2017 with several below $2000
- Bounced around between $2000-3000 all of 2018

1969 Topps Lew Alcindor PSA 8
- Prior to 2016, sub $2000 card
- Explodes in first half of 2016 to over $10000
- Collapsed back to $5000-ish last half of 2016, with one $14000 PWCC HE outlier
- Declined back to $4000-5000 mostly, with a handful of exceptions in the $8000 range that have literally impeccable centering and probably are bump candidates. A PSA 9 on this card is really tough and really rare.


This thread was about the Young, but there were numerous others from last night that were awfully big changes.

Red Chance 6 that I think had been crossed from SGC to PSA, took it from $1100 previously to $1850

Cobb bat off P5.5 $10200 - REA sold a nice 6! last year for $7800.

SGC 50 Red Cobb with registration that makes it appear he's looking up to the sky - $4100 - REALLY?!?!

Wajo P5 $7700 - that's DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3500 that are nice looking cards

Mathewson P5 $6200 - also nearly DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3600 for equally nice looking cards

Ruth 33 Goudey Yellow SGC 5 $15600 - marked high end despite L/R off center and mild tilt - similar cards sold earlier this year in the $10-11k range

38 Goudey Dimaggio 4 $4350 - similar cards were $3500 previously

I have owned 5s or better of all the Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson and Young portraits at one point or other in the past. It is just my opinion, but I don't consider any of those particularly RARE cards. These were very nice looking, but I've seen plenty of others that were also nice looking previously that weren't effectively double the previous selling prices. Yes, many of these sit in collections and somewhat off-limits, but that's not a forever phenomenon on these cards. That's much more applicable with the 7s and 8s - not the really pretty 5s.

I'm sure there are plenty of other examples, those above are just the ones that caught my eye because I was BLOWN OUT bidding on them. Undoubtedly there will be many more coming tonight with the mid-50s RCs.

One that interestingly went the other way was the Magie error. Seems like maybe someone got a heck of a deal on that if that's a card you're into.

Overall I do think these prices have shown the strength in the big name guys and their popular cards. However, what concerns me a bit more is what is really at the core of these prices and is it really a step change in price, or just some new entrants that got far too excited?

I think it's probably prudent to be cautious of drawing too many conclusions from this single auction.

Are we seeing the next generation of so called market pushers? People seemed to fall for it in 2016, so maybe if that's what's happening, they will again. I can still hear people mocking me saying those prices back then that DR references were just competition for nice cards.

Pretty much what I was saying in my post Peter. If it walks like a fish, talks like a fish and stinks like a fish...

Honestly, the same discussion comes up almost every month with PWCC auctions. They do have nice stuff and it does seem quality material comes up less frequently. I was priced out of almost everything last night but felt good not falling for the mayhem. I did get a nicely-centered PSA 5 Eddie Collins M116 for a good deal. But, there just isn't the craziness for M116s..........yet.

Accuracy of pop reports?
 

I'm a relative newbie to T206 collecting, but just how accurate are these pop reports from PSA and SGC? I hear you all talk all the time about resubmitting cards for grading, hoping to get a higher grade from the other company. Then the new owner may do the same - then a new owner may do it yet again. How many times has the same card gone through the grading process with these same companies, to be added, yet again, as another entry to the pop report? I'm guessing the numbers are significantly inflated.

And I agree - what percentage of these cards have the degree of centering and registration - that eye-popping presentation to them - that that EX Young portrait has - among those graded in that range? Not that many. I'm a budget collector - usually purchasing cards in the PSA 2-4 range (as my budget allows), but I see 6-8 range cards all the time that I would have no interest adding to my collection, due to odd centering or registration characteristics. I'm not a cardboard collector, so some minor creasing and corner wear (which on a T206 can actually add to the appearance in my opinion) on a card pale in significance to me versus centering, clarity, and overall presentation. Give me a well centered, well registered "3" over an "8 OC" any day!

Simply put, the prices that the t206 portraits brought last night are not normal.

10K is steep, but I feel like I've been saying that about prices for years. They keep rising. I'm sure we will see a pull back at some point, but examples that are centered with bold color and registration will still command a premium. It took me a long time to find a Young and Red Cobby that had all three qualities.

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...ictureid=10124

Show off!!

I know it's hard to draw conclusions from bid histories, but there were 5 bidders north of 4K. 4 had 100 percent bidding with PWCC and the 5th had 97 percent. All had under 100 feedbacks.

:D

I noticed similar, particularly what I would consider the low feedback.

Not entirely sure what it means, but for now I think I'm leaning toward it being buyers who just got overly excited overly the quality of those cards and got caught up in a bidding war.

When prices are rising and the quality is there, it's easy to justify overpaying.

Prices only go up...until they don't.

The one positive thing from all of this is a big supply of slightly off-center, less-than-perfect registered specimens that can be had for a bargain

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

Perhaps, but it's never happened before, apparently. Many of these prices smashed all records. These surely aren't the first examples of very nice for the grade T206s.

More collectors are coming to their senses and collecting cards and not flips?

That explanation was given in 2016 too, FWIW.

It was important then and more important now :). And I think we have been saying buy the card and not the holder since the Gretzky Wagner was graded. :cool:

And this is why it's been called "collecting" and not "investing", up until last few years anyway?

I can't imagine EVER referring to my collection as a "portfolio". Good grief. :rolleyes:

Seems to me the "justification machine" is on full tilt right now.

What's next - extensive restoration?!?! :D

yep!

Yes, but pay a sensible price for it, not an off the charts world record.

T206 Young portrait is a high demand card, this example was particularly nice, the price was way over the top, and the T206 market continues to be overheated.

A confluence of all those factors at the same time.

Maybe it's just me, but I just can't get past those corners to a 5. Maybe 4.5, a 4 but 5, nope.

By "last few" do you mean since the 1980's? Because I've heard cards referred to as investments since at least then.

Wow, you're a tough grader. I would put those corners at a solid 5. The lower right is the only one that has me thinking. I've seen a lot worse and few better for the grade (assuming no other significant detractors).

My God, a new carpet. Next she will wanting new shoes for the kids.

And the same thing was at one point or another said about:
Beanie Babies
Hot Wheels / Matchbox cars
Precious Moments figurines
Antique miniature trains
Cabbage Patch kids
All those limited edition plates
Tons of Franklin Mint stuff

Just because someone says it doesn't make it so.

It's impossible to deny that in the past 3-4 years specifically, the talk of "alternative asset class" and "investment portfolio of cards" has reached a whole new crescendo.

Ha, good one! She actually has the kids dialed in with shoes. Just stretched a little thin right now with repairs to a couple of houses.

Eye appeal greatly affects market value. Since 2015, cards with superior eye appeal, highlighted by the PWCC Certified High End brand, have realized prices 65% higher than market value on average. A complete download of all PWCC-HE sales and related statistics is available on PWCC Marketplace website.

The premium paid for cards with superior eye appeal and highlighted by the PWCC-HE designation reveals an investment trend largely in its infancy. As a key investment variable, the eye appeal of a vintage trading card seems destined to have an increasingly significant impact on market value for the foreseeable future. Investors are encouraged to take notice of this topic and invest accordingly.

THIS IS A QUOTE FROM PWCC

Great post. I agree with your suspicions that many more collectors are bidding like this today.

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

Sam, the 2016 run up involved plenty of cards in 4 and 5 figures. I'm not sure what's happening now -- I was quite sure back in 2016 because it was so obvious and pervasive -- I only note my skepticism when cards suddenly go off the rails.

This is certainly a possibility...as are other scenarios.

Yes, it's increased lately, and with more flowery language.


But the number of people who were expecting to put their kids through college on their holdings of 1990 cards was really large. And buying lots of 100 or 500 or more of the "can't miss" rookies was a thing in at least the early 80's.

I suppose I should send all the ones that got 4s from SGC to PSA. I might do really well.

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=7483http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=3319http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=3318http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=3317

I have spent time ensuring I didnt overpay to find the perfect card at the perfect price only to find out i waited so long... so perfectly that the prices went up that if i hadnt done so wrt to the price i would have came out ahead. Pull the trigger is my motto at this point on THE card. If you have to wait out the justification....eh. No problem. I am a collecter.

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

None of the above were collected by 50 year old + financially set rich men. Not many filthy rich dudes on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley were collecting Beanie Babies or match box cars.

Lajoie has seen insane price increases. It wasn't long ago that was an 85.00 card as a 1. Now you can't touch one under 200.00.

Speaker saw a small jump a few months back and has really cooled off.

The original statement was that it's only been in the "last few" years that cards have been considered and investment.


to me last few is somewhere around 5 years give or take maybe a couple.


Here's a pretty serious article about collectibles as an investment from 1999 sadly behind a paywall.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647019...n_tab_contents


Grading companies were started mostly to attract the guys with big money. Enough people wanted to collect, wanted quality, but didn't want to spend a lot of valuable time learning how to tell what was great and what was average. PSA got into it around 1990? 91?
So roughly 28 years ago.


From 2012, the toy boat collector in the article had been collecting for 30 years. And it seems wasn't exactly short of cash...
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/04/11/inve...ible-toys.html

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

Holiday Purchasing
 

Maybe someone is buying X-mas gifts.

Truth hurts sometimes.

I wish this was even a possibility. Sadly, I just miss out on a lot of great cards because others have deep pockets. I just focus on other things that don't get the attention.

Most of the mayhem seems to be around portraits. I'm guessing these high bidders are trying to anticipate the next green Cobb or something.

Pete...nm

This.
I don't understand the reflexive defense of highly unusual prices. Remember 2016 and proceed with caution. In this hobby, legitimate prices rarely, if ever, skyrocket overnight.

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):


Attachment 336663


And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:


Attachment 336664


Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

Those are very nice 5s, exactly of the sort I look for myself.

Paleocards, please know I was not knocking record holders. Indeed, I hold a few records myself. When you see you want, sometimes you just gotta go for it. That’s probably what happened with Mr Deep Pockets. But query whether he was bidding against another Deep Pocket or someone else with different intentions?

And I agree, I would take your cards all day long for half the price. You did well

Beautiful 5s!

Nice fat borders on those 2. The Johnson is particularly nice, congrats. Who knows, in due time they might look like bargains.

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.