october Madness

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Posted By: <b>Bruce Dorskind</b><p><br /><br />We are disappointed that our post on Direct Sales turned into a political commentary<br /><br />So, we believe it is time for a major baseball card only reality check.<br /><br />Between October 15 and November 15 there are six auctions<br /><br /><br />1) Brockelman an Luckey<br />2) Heritage<br />3) Huggins and Scott<br />4) Mastro<br />5) Sloate Auctions<br />6) 19th Century<br /><br /><br />We should choose 25 key cards from each auction and create an index<br /><br />1) last three prices on VCBC (in some cases there will be none<br />2) Estimated value<br />3) Actual prices realized<br /><br />Our prediction is that of 125 items at least 20 will fail to meet their reserve<br />(not likely in Mastro because of $100 opening bid on all items) and that more<br />than 50 of the remaining items will sell for 25%+ less than either the estimated<br />value or the average value of the past 3 public auctions.<br /><br />Although the auctions are much like the stock market- i.e. one can really judge the outcome<br />until the final bell, from what we see bidding in those auctions that are now open is<br />unenthusiastic at best.<br /><br />At the end of this study, we are confident that we will able to say the Baseball Card/Memorabilia<br />Hobby has entered a significant recession.<br /><br />Whilst we hope that we are incorrect, we strongly believe that that our most dire predictions<br />are optimistic.<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- mine closes Nov 13. Could you please include me on that list. Thank you.

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Posted By: <b>Tom Boblitt</b><p>October/November madness since we go to Nov 15....................<br /><br />Are you a closet college basketball fan Bruce.......the October/Midnight Maddness kind of tie in...........<br /><br />It'll be interesting to see. If the Mastro results from the last auction are any indication, the downward swing has already begun..........<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>They also had crappy stuff...<br><br>Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: <b>Bobby Binder</b><p>What is VCBC?

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bobby- VCBC was Dennis Purdy's magazine that was published in the 1990's. I believe Bruce meant your site, but he types quickly.

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Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Maybe what kept the prices down was that fancy 'secure login' gizmo. By signing in with that login instead of the regular one does that protect bidders from fraud?<br /><br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p>&lt;&lt;that fancy 'secure login' gizmo&gt;&gt;<br /><br /><br />You had trouble with that too? I thought it was my new computer. Every time I go to log in it makes me enter my name and password at least twice. After the second or third entry it acts like "You are already logged in! Don't do it any more!"<br /><br /><br />If it was just you, I'd think Mastro was mad at you, but they have nothing to be mad at me for.<br /><br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br />

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Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>Well if your taking nominations, I'll nominate:<br /><br />H&S #7 Yum Yum tobacco<br />H&S #3 N172 Old Judge California Brown<br />H&S #11 E90-1 Cobb <br /><br />Heritage #19008 N172 King Kelly<br />Heritage #19020 Jackson rookie<br />Heritage #19025 Cobb Red portrait<br />Heritage #19033 E93 Wagner SGC88<br />Heritage #19062 Cleveland Americans<br /><br />B&L #8 SF Hess Richardson<br />B&L #92 T207 Johnson<br />B&L #141 Cleveland Americans<br />B&L #190 T205 Clarke<br /><br />19th #7 T4 Obak<br />19th #12 Buck Weaver T212<br /><br />Didn't look at Mastro and sloate doesn't seem to be up yet. Tried to pick combination of popular well known cards, high grade, and some "regular" mid grade HOF.<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I won't be up for another ten days.

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Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>"I won't be up for another ten days."<br><br>Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>Good start to the list.<br /><br />I would add one of the K-Bats from H&S, as well.

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>I did not see any bargains in the H&S Lots I was watching that closed last night. The Goodwin auction is off to a fast start, with a few lots already surpassing previous high water marks, and others close to doing so.<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Anyone else want to weigh in mid-experiment? How has it looked on the lots you have been watching?

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Posted By: <b>Dave F</b><p><br />I was 1 of 5 (of the lots I was serious about). Three of those though were groups of cards..not singles. I wasn't within even the last couple bids on most of them. I did pick up an E125 for probably about what it is worth during an average market. One more serious lot to look at tonight.