vintage cards recession proof? [Archive] - Net54baseball.com Forums

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01-21-2008, 10:34 AM

Posted By: Frank WakefieldSome investors move their investing dollars clear of stocks and bonds in a recession (we're not in one, nowhere close, months to go if it does happen), and move money toward other areas. Real estate, art, metals... Some folks will buy baseball cards and label it investing, but that is a really poor investment, for reasons I've previously stated. Still, some money will go toward cards. Some folks who've bought cards on credit cards, or are somewhat in debt, might sell cards to dig their way out of debt a bit. So I'd think some cards will surface, offered for sale. My belief is that cards will just about hold their own for the time being. Neither significantly up, nor down. About 8 months from now, if we have gone into a recession, which I doubt will happen, then fewer folks will have disposable income, there won't be as many dollars out there chasing cards, the price of some cards would drop a bit. But that is months away if it happens at all.

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01-21-2008, 10:38 AM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanFWIW, high grade commons and HOF T206s have gone down in value pretty considerably over the past six months.

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01-21-2008, 10:46 AM

Posted By: Chris Mc Frank, I really hope you are correct but I think we (U.S) are in big trouble. I really don't want to go too far off the original post but the banking/financial sector is in huge hot water. Vintage cards may drop off and I feel bad for those who use them as an investment but the true collector wouldn't care if the card was worth $10 or $10,000.

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01-21-2008, 10:54 AM

Posted By: barrysloateI think some areas of the market got unrealistically high, and high grade T206's was one of them. We had some threads about a year ago regarding the crazy prices that 7's and 8's were getting, and maybe they really were crazy after all. Those are the kinds of price declines to expect in a recession. But rare cards still seem to be holding up pretty darn well. Let's see how the next six months progress, as we may see some new patterns.

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01-21-2008, 10:56 AM

Posted By: David Davisby sending in your PSA cards for a half grade bump. Who said cards weren't a good hedge against inflation?

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01-21-2008, 11:19 AM

Posted By: barrysloateExcellent point David. The economy goes down 10-20% in 2008, but all those half grade bumps increase the value of your collection 10-20%. It's better than gold. Speaking of gold, it hit $900 an ounce recently. I think it's going to top $1000 in the near future. That's only good if you have some, because otherwise it's a very negative sign.

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01-21-2008, 11:31 AM

Posted By: Joe D."Speaking of gold, it hit $900 an ounce recently. I think it's going to top $1000 in the near future. That's only good if you have some, because otherwise it's a very negative sign." I have been giving a lot of thought to buying precious metals, even at these high prices. My fear is that much of the price jump has been due to devaluation of the dollar. I don't know if the US plans on strengthening the dollar any time soon - but if they did, I would guess that would cause the precious metals prices to plummet. I wouldn't want to get caught up in that. There are many people much more learned than I am on the subject - hopefully some N54ers are and someone here can guide me. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> feel free to email me if further discussion is too OT.

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01-21-2008, 11:45 AM

Posted By: davidcyclebackI am no precious metals expert and don't pretend to be one. However, I was once told the best way to invest in precious metals is not to buy the metal itself but to invest in good companies that produce them. Of note, N173s have gold. Copper has gone up and T205s have copper. (Mostly a joke, as I don't image they have enough to invest metal-wise). I had a baseball All-Star ring, and whether rational or irrational, I felt a bit longterm safer knowing it was made out of gold and diamond. If worse came to worse, I figured the lowest point for gold still had to be higher than the highest point for cardboard. Besides, I don't even know how you melt down a baseball card. Of course, I don't know how to melt down a diamond either.

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01-21-2008, 11:54 AM

Posted By: Ken McMillanwe should all invest in cxw. it is a company that manages prisons. There will always be crime and it will probably increase is the country goes into a recession. also we could invest in waste management companies, we will always have garbage. recession proof ideas???? Ken

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01-21-2008, 12:03 PM

Posted By: barrysloateJoe- I agree $900 is a risky entry point. If you bought a year ago, you did great. But since it is currently hovering at an all time high, of course it is may fall.

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01-21-2008, 12:09 PM

Posted By: davidcyclebackBuild a steel time machine, go back a year and trade it in for a gold one. Bring a few T206 HOfers to pay for gas money back. My childhood friend's dad was a radiologist (doctor who takes X-rays). When the price of silver went up in the 1980s, my friend's dad got into a fight with his partner over who owned all the old X-ray film in the office. Old film contains silver.

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01-21-2008, 12:36 PM

Posted By: Corey R. ShanusI think true rarities (as opposed to condition rarities) are great hedges against economic downturns. For the best of them (e.g., a 4BH Kelly -- Hi Leon), many of those cards are so rare and so desireous, whenever one should come available, collectors will do their all to snatch it up; there may never be another opportunity. Perhaps in good economic times they might fetch a bit more (though even there because the demand is so great it might not matter), I would think in any economy they will always fetch enough to prove themselves great long-term investments.

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01-21-2008, 12:41 PM

Posted By: davidcyclebackIf something can go up, it can go down. Note that the current steroids scandal has convinced many baseball card and memorabilia collectors to move to the Pre-Steroid era. The value of Roger Maris autographs has multiplied since the day Mark McGwire broke his record. Hank Aaron is more admired since Bonds broke his record. The market value for Aaron game used material has gone up, while Bonds game used has gone down! Same trend for Aaron and Bonds autographs and baseball cards. Many collectors of current star game used jerseys will move their scarce dollars back 30 years. For a long time, I've heard game used experts say that many old game used jerseys are underappreciated when compared to the mass produced Manny Ramirez, Big Papi and Derek Jeter stuff ("Lot of 100 Derek Jeter game worn wrist bands. For bulk rates, call."). But it is only now with the steroids issues that many modern collectors are seriously looking at the older material.

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01-23-2008, 06:36 AM

Posted By: barrysloateDow is down 440 points in first 5 minutes of trading. Will this have an impact on the hobby if the market goes into a freefall?

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01-23-2008, 06:50 AM

Posted By: Joe D."Dow is down 440 points in first 5 minutes of trading. Will this have an impact on the hobby if the market goes into a freefall?" In a word: no. possibly a more pertinent financial move for the hobby was today's fed action... the fed cut the rate 3/4 point. they will support/save the real estate market as best they could. Time to take advantage of the new rates - refinance the house and buy that Wagner! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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01-23-2008, 06:58 AM

Posted By: barrysloateI'd rather pay off the mortgage and be the one selling that Wagner! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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01-23-2008, 07:32 AM

Posted By: Joe D.if I wasn't married, I would be living in a cardboard box eating ketchup sandwhiches.... but I would be cuddling a T206 Wagner. Thank goodness my yang has a yin. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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01-23-2008, 07:41 AM

Posted By: paulstrattonMore cuts to come? Oil needs to come WAY down. Like others have said...I think the good stuff will hold up well.

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01-23-2008, 07:46 AM

Posted By: Anonymous"if I wasn't married, I would be living in a cardboard box eating ketchup sandwhiches.... but I would be cuddling a T206 Wagner." I hear you, bro! If it wasn't for the better half I'd be living in a cave too but the cards I'd have... Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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01-23-2008, 08:32 AM

Posted By: scott brockelmanThe market downturn may actually drive vintage card prices up. In most down markets investors often seek other avenues to make gains, turning to hard assets such as real estate, art, precious metals etc. all of which are used by the wealthy as investment vehicles, vintage cards are just another safe haven. Specifically I would be speaking of higher dollar cards, and/or condition rarities, not average grade t-cards o such. I think most on this board would agree if they had $100 or $100,000 cold cash to invest right now they would be more prone to put it in cards that they know and love than the uncertainties of the market. Make no mistake the market will come back and come back stronger and higher but it will be many months or perhaps a year or 2 before that occurs. Meanwhile you could be holding a cherished piece of cardboard and realize a large gain at that time as well. Only one caveat with vintage cards, you HAVE TO BE ABLE TO SELL them, many fall in love and can't bear to reap the profits when they should sell out. Scott

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01-23-2008, 08:42 AM

Posted By: barrysloateScott- I'm not sure I totally agree with you. We have seen in some instances people taking money out of stocks and putting it into hard assets such as baseball cards. But if we are in a recession some may want to put some money in the bank. This isn't a bad time to have some extra cash on hand. I still think rare cards will do well, but it may be a time for some collectors to take a breather. It will vary with each individual.

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01-23-2008, 08:50 AM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanGuys, I really don't think if the market tanks -- and hysteria hits investors big and small -- that anyone with cash will be putting it anywhere but in a money market fund until the distress subsides.

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01-23-2008, 08:52 AM

Posted By: boxingcardmanImagine that <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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01-23-2008, 09:03 AM

Posted By: Jason LUm, nope! no reason to think so. They are a store of value just like everything else that someone wants to call an investment.

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01-23-2008, 09:26 AM

Posted By: LanceI have agreed with Jeff on this one the whole way. PSA 7 T206 commons were $700-1000 6-8 months ago. You can buy them all day for $400 delivered. I do think we will see a slight increase with tax returns rolling in, but I don't expect the huge spike we had last year. I know a couple of people who bought large groups of raw before the decline and before the cards could get graded, the market disappeared. Big losses. I hope it just stays stable for awhile. Lance

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01-23-2008, 09:51 AM

Posted By: Joe D.Even in a recession - I don't think there would be a problem finding people comfortable enough to buy vintage cards. The buyers will be there. Heck, judging by this board - vintage card collectors are mostly lawyers and doctors (recession resistant). The issue that could effect the market is on the supply side. If too many people 'need' to sell at one-time... its bargain city.

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01-23-2008, 09:51 AM

Posted By: PCHolding high value cards -- many of which have gained in value in just the past three or four years -- and expecting them to either retain all of that value, or even increase, seems unrealistic. Even in good times. But the recent price drop of T206 7s does answer the question of what that hissing sound is that I hear from the PSA registry -- it's the air rushing out of all those slabs.

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01-23-2008, 10:15 AM

Posted By: Frank WakefieldWhat I've set out below is my personal perception, and may well not be reality, so please don't take offense.... A CARD COLLECTOR's only concern about the price of a card is how it will affect his buying. He focuses on the expected costs of the cards he lacks. He rarely gets caught up in the current value of the cards he has. A CARD SPECULATOR focuses on the value of a card based on what other folks are paying, in hopes that he could sell his card for that or more. He cares not about the value of cards he lacks. And it doesn't matter all that much who the player is, or which set the card is from, it is all about the potential sale value. A CARD INVESTOR is delusional.

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01-23-2008, 10:15 AM

Posted By: stevePeople have stated the true rarity would hold its value better than most. What qualifies for a true rarity? And if its truly rare, you will have a tough time investing because you will not be able to find one. When the Skydash rarities sold in December, it sure seemed like they should have gone higher - they should be classified as true rarities.....they did not get the high price expected. Prices seem to be more demand driven than supply - I am painfully learning this as I become a more experienced hobbyist. Perhaps the highest demand in our vintage hobby is for T206's. And of course the most desired T206's would be high end major HOF'ers. If the market is currently giving a 20% discount on these cards, maybe pick up a Cy Young portrait or Cobby or Matty in NM or better. Toss it in the safe deposit and smile when Wall Street is not. steve

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01-23-2008, 10:23 AM

Posted By: Joe D."A CARD INVESTOR is delusional." I loved that line.

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01-23-2008, 10:23 AM

Posted By: barrysloateI think it's hard to generalize what some people will do. Given two collectors with equal amounts of disposable cash, one may still buy baseball cards unabated, and the other might take a break and just bank it. Much has to do with the personality of the buyer. But no matter what spin you put on it, the market is very volatile and there are a good number of people nervous about the short term economy.

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01-23-2008, 10:39 AM

Posted By: barrysloateI wanted to respond to Steve regarding the Skydash Collection. A number of people expected to see higher prices on the Tin Tops, but I was not surprised by the results. The rarity and condition was there, but that is a very thinly collected set. So less than stellar prices were not shocking. And if I may shift gears for a minute, I have an auction closing the day after tomorrow so of course I am concerned with what is going on today. I see my better quality material holding up nicely, and I expect great results by the end. But my second tier material isn't doing too well, and I suspect there will be some disappointments. That's the market, what can you do?

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01-23-2008, 10:39 AM

Posted By: Corey R. ShanusTrue rarities for purposes of best holding their value and turning out to be good long-term investments are those that are BOTH rare in any condition and have a high demand. That second requirement (high demand) is what IMO somewhat put a damper on what the Skydash Thorpe went for. While obviously it is sensational card, I do think it could have approached/hit the six-figure barrier had it had more aesthetic appeal and been from a more popular and well-known issue.

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01-23-2008, 10:51 AM

Posted By: barrysloateCorey- regarding the E270 Thorpe, I would venture to say there were many collectors with rather big collections who were not even aware that such a card existed; likewise; I fielded several questions from people who asked the difference between a Colgan's Chip and a Tin Top. It's possible the Tin Tops suffered from being so rare that they were on nobody's radar.

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01-23-2008, 10:53 AM

Posted By: PCI actually agree with Frank. Well stated. One nuance about the card speculator: "He cares not about the value of cards he lacks." I think that might not always be the case, because if the speculator thinks a card will go down in value, he may avoid acquiring it. I guess, in that sense, he cares, but not as much compared to the cards he owns.

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01-23-2008, 11:04 AM

Posted By: scott brockelmanIt appears I am incorrect in my assessment of top quality rarities holding their own in a stock market downturn. I am willing to put my money where my mouth is, who has cards of this calibre that they want to sell me? Please no T206's in 7 holders, those aren't even close to qualifying, they are commodities which have probably not seen the bottom yet, even 8's would not be a good bet. Scott

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01-23-2008, 11:22 AM

Posted By: steveScott B. - interested? S74 Silk, Mathewson colored, GAI 7 $2,500. Finest I've ever seen. S74 Silk, W. Johnson colored, GAI 6 $1,500. Outstanding and truly rare. Colgan's Tin Tops, Honus Wagner, SGC 60. $8,000. Only one ever graded until Skydash. Colgan's Chips, Honus Wagner, PSA 8. $2,600. Blazer. Wow! 1926 Exhibits, Babe Ruth, pose, PSA 4. $1,800. Only a couple graded higher. steve.

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01-23-2008, 11:29 AM

Posted By: barrysloateScott- looking for rarities? Try www.sloateauction.com. Thank you. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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01-23-2008, 11:54 AM

Posted By: davidcyclebackObserving experienced baseball card collectors talking about stocks, an investment banker commented that the collectors knew a whole lot more about baseball cards than NYSE companies. He said their knowledge was more suited to picking baseball cards as investments than stocks.

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01-23-2008, 11:56 AM

Posted By: leonI think there are many variables in the "recession proof" qualities of cards...or any antiquities for that matter. I tend to agree with your assessment overall..... Also, to Frank's points....I think we can have our cake and eat it too.....I can be a collector, speculator, and investor....all happily rolled into one....mostly a collector at this point though.... best regards

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01-23-2008, 12:08 PM

Posted By: scott brockelmanSteve -Very nice items, unfortunately not exactly what I would be looking for as they only satisfy one of the criteria given by Corey above. They are extremely rare and low pop, but silks, colgans and exhibits both have low collector bases. Barry -I have looked at the auction. Many very nice cards and quite a few fit the bill, however I did not see many underperforming. It appears the majority of the 1st half of the auction is pretty solid with ample time left. I did find one under priced card and placed a bid. Scott

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01-23-2008, 12:10 PM

Posted By: barrysloateI just saw Scott, thanks. That was pretty good salesmanship, don't you think?

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01-23-2008, 12:16 PM

Posted By: scott brockelmanBased on your auction, other than a few lots, given the current market conditions, the prices seem pretty strong and you still have the final days to go. Good Luck to you, your consignors and the winning bidders. Scott

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01-23-2008, 12:30 PM

Posted By: barrysloateThanks Scott. I still think there will be some soft spots, but that's a sign of the times.

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01-23-2008, 12:48 PM

Posted By: steveI would like to educate myself on what cards are not so rare nobody colelcts them (silks, colgans, exhibits), yet not too plentiful to be considered commodities (major T206 HOF'ers PSA 7). There seems to be a fine line of correctly proportioned supply/demand to meet our conversed upon topic. Perhaps: Certain 1909-11 Caramels, high grade, major HOFers Y/N T205's, high grade, major HOFers Y/N T3's, High grade, major HOFers Y/N Cracker Jacks, high grade, major HOFers Y/N Other suggested cards ____________________ question: high end is equivalent to PSA 6, 7 or 8 ? steve

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01-23-2008, 01:31 PM

Posted By: scott brockelmanSteve, I think the absolute answer may lie with each individual collector. For the most part I would say that to truely be rare and highly sought after are the 2 major components as others outlined above. I would define that as low pop cards in the mainstream sets. To answer your questions: Certain 1909-11 Caramels, high grade, major HOFers--Absolutely, most of the early caramel sets E90-1 thru E107 in high grade with known scarcities being a major plus, for example E90-1 Speaker or E102 Cobb, you could not go wrong on these in mid grade or higher. T205's, high grade, major HOFers --Again a yes, and I would even say commons in 8-9 here, they are much tougher than other T issues in high grade, evidenced by the low pop of Wendell's T205 set. T3's, High grade, major HOFers-- Yes, again, even in 5 or better on commons and HOFers. Cracker Jacks, high grade, major HOFers -Ditto Other suggested cards, scarce/rare type cards in mid grade or higher(many will only be found in lower to mid grade) i.e. Victory tobacco, Mono, E99/100 in nice condtion. there are many more, just a few examples. Also almost in any D card in solid VG or better. And don't forget 19th century tougher issues, G & B, Gypsy Queen, etc question: high end is equivalent to PSA 6, 7 or 8 ? It depends on the issue, in Caramels 6 or higher would be ideal. Basically each T issue is independent, I would look at the POP reports, lets say T206 with over 4,100 by PSA alone in 7, not really that rare, in 8 over 2,200 still not rare, 260 9's, now we are getting down to desirable levels. In T205's the numbers drop quite a bit approx 800 in 7, 181 in 8 and 4 9's. T207's and T204's are even more extreme. I think one has to use some "6th sense" as well, going thru ebay on a daily basis you see so many Cobbs, Matty's, Johnson's etc of common issues you quickly realize they are just not that rare. However when you spy something that you just never ever see, that 6th sense kicks in and tells you, you may not see one of these for a long time, if interested, load up and bid or have no regrets. This is the type of card that may appear on ebay once a year or less. Ditto with the major auctions. Browsing thru them you again become benign to the run of the mill cards seen daily, but really become excited when something you have not seen forever or never shows up. Scott

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01-23-2008, 02:22 PM

Posted By: Corey R. ShanusThere are some non-mainstream sets (e.g., Four Base Hits, Just So, Kalamazoo Bats) that have enough of a collector base as to qualify certain cards within them as solid long-term investments.

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01-23-2008, 03:00 PM

Posted By: JimBI agree with Scott B's analysis across the board. JimB

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01-23-2008, 03:22 PM

Posted By: barrysloateScott- I can't ever recall seeing a T205 graded PSA 9. Granted there are only four, but have any of them ever come up for auction?

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01-23-2008, 03:23 PM

Posted By: steveOK, so we are talking minimum $5.k cards here, a nervy ebay transaction. I see why the big auction houses mostly handle this type of high end stuff - security for all. The caramels often have pictures that, while colorful, do not really look much like the player - some do - maybe go after those. The Cracker Jacks have wonderful eye appeal, colorful and realistic. Add 'em to my want list I have never been too crazy for the T205 pictures, some folks like them though. T3's - too large a size for my tastes, again, others are fond of them. I would add nice for the grade, solid NM, major T206 HOFers to the list. ebay currently has not one single major T206 HOFer in PSA 7. They will always remain prized posessions. Makes my want list. thanks all, steve.

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01-23-2008, 04:26 PM

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman last four T206 Mathewson portrait PSA 7 sales 11/4/07 eBay $5,299.00 10/10/07 eBay $5,150.00 10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00 4/3/06 Mastro $8,529.33 last three T206 Johnson portrait PSA 7 sales 4/28/07 Mastro $8,907.60 10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00 8/20/06 eBay $10,567.90

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01-23-2008, 04:29 PM

Posted By: Darren<img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/tmp/1201048139.JPG">

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01-23-2008, 04:46 PM

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman"Scott- I can't ever recall seeing a T205 graded PSA 9. Granted there are only four, but have any of them ever come up for auction?" Man, would I like to see one of those. Does anyone on the board have a scan of one?

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01-23-2008, 05:08 PM

Posted By: Brian Weisner Hi Jeff, Why didn't you pick on Cobb????? Because he's your favorite???? Be well Brian PS The pop numbers don't surprise me, as there are lots of T206's out there... But not many with "rare backs"... smiley

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01-23-2008, 05:13 PM

Posted By: barrysloateJeff- in both your examples Goodwin outperformed Mastro by a wide margin. What's the explanation for that?

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01-23-2008, 05:17 PM

Posted By: Brian Weisner Hi Barry, Timing..... Be well Brian PS My KB Bats didn't get a 50 like your Maul in the auction, but it did get a nice 40.... and maybe a .5 grade in the future... smiley 45 would be funny looking...

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01-23-2008, 05:22 PM

Posted By: scott brockelmanOf the 4 T205 9's one is in the top T205 set that has since been broken up, Wendell Smith's T205 will likely never be duplicated. The others are unaccounted for, I would not have been surprised if owned most or all of them, but alas only 1 and it's Frank Chance. It could be worse, in T204's there is one lone 9, owned by Peter. Corey is correct on his 19th century mentions, while not mainstream, uncategorically rare and desirable, a can't fail strategy. Steve is also correct on his comments, many of the caramels do not represent the player well, but remember we are talking pure return and not asthetics. Which is a major factor in my personal collecting, I much favor real photo images, not art work renditions. However, some great performing stocks or funds are not so glamorous either. Lastly no one is wrong or right on this realm of cards being an investment vs. collectible, each person has their own defintion and desires. I do disagree with a few that if the market tanked(which it won't), that there would be quite a few savvy individuals loading up on cards and not Money Market or CD's which would pay next to nothing as the interest rates would be near Zero in an effort to revive the economy(which may happen). It would be akin to buying houses or raw land after a market severe drop in prices, essentially everything is on sale. This morning I talked to one of my wealth management advisors(their title, not mine) and their advice was not to bail and not to short, but to hoard cash for the near term and be ready to put it in the market after a few months after things have settled down and a bottom has been established, buying back in before the market starts to trand back upward, buying while stocks or funds are "on sale". I believe this same strategy could apply to cards, expecially if you feel they are coming down in price as say the T206 in 7 example, pick a target price, say $300 or $350 or whatever you feel is a bargain and buy like crazy. On the next upswing, which is probably inevitable, sell off into the strength. Just my thoughts. Scott

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01-23-2008, 05:24 PM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanBrian, you should know why I didn't pick on Cobb--because he's my favorite he never goes down in price! Lucky me! Barry, must be Goodwin's creative advertising.

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01-23-2008, 05:28 PM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanI agree with Scott's sentiments mostly. However, I have a lot of contact with Wall Streeters; their bad feelings about the economy is almost universally bleak -- on a level that I have not seen in a very long time.

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01-23-2008, 05:30 PM

Posted By: Brian Weisner Hi Jeff, I know.... That's why I have a bunch too.... Cobb..... The imagination runs wild, but his "silent rage" settles on the willingness to do anything to win... I would love to use a time machine to watch him play. Be well Brian PS I would also pay a good chunk of change to go back and watch Bobby Jones in his prime... Two totally different men from the same area and time who chose to live remarkable lives in totally different manners.

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01-23-2008, 05:34 PM

Posted By: Brian Weisner Hi Scott, I agree.... And I have seen it over and over again. Watch a few Key Stocks too... One being GE.... Alright back to cards... Be well Brian PS Scott leave my favorites alone.... and you know what they are...

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01-23-2008, 05:45 PM

Posted By: barrysloateI just find it curious that Goodwin outperformed Mastro by about 30% on two key cards...it's not like Mastro is leaving all this money on the table. It's a pretty big operation. Just saying a lot of what I see doesn't make much sense.

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01-23-2008, 05:52 PM

Posted By: Brian Weisner Hi Barry, Timing.... same price, same buyer??? 10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00 10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00 Bad data? or same buyer? I don't believe in coincidences... And then the most obvious.... BUY the Card not the holder..

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01-23-2008, 05:57 PM

Posted By: Dave FWould anyone agree that with the caramels like E94, E95, E97 and E98 that maybe even when you get into the SGC 70 range your talking high end? I know the E98 Bender SGC70 that was sold this week on ebay I was paying attention to see the ending price. And it seems when you get into the even more rare E cards...E99, E100, E107 that once you get around a SGC 40 your talking fairly high grade...just IMO.

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01-23-2008, 06:08 PM

Posted By: barrysloateBrian- I just find it strange that there would be such a discrepancy between the two auction houses. Slight differences can always occur, but those are not thinly traded cards, they're classics. Just doesn't make sense.

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01-23-2008, 07:08 PM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanBarry, of course it's obvious how Goodwin can blow away Mastro who can blow away ebay: Marketing.

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01-23-2008, 09:27 PM

Posted By: AnonymousI agree with a lot of what Scott has to say, with the exception of high grade T206s. I just can't see cards from such a common set holding value in any kind of crisis. We'll get a real, live test of Scott's theory when the Baltimore News Ruth (REA) and the Tin Top Jackson (Mastro) trade this April. If he's right, these items will do fine despite weakness in many of the more common items. Regarding the Thorpe, I know some of you thought it might bring more money, but in my opinion that is top dollar for a pog. Colgans chips have never been popular. The Jackson won't trade much higher, but still at a big price for a chip. My experience is that when prices weaken, the most rare and desireable items go into hiding until prices start climbing again. The last few major auctions have been relatively weak, in my opinion. Lots of desireable, but common cards to choose from. We are entering a market like the mid-90s after Copeland. The only sellers will be those who have to sell and the prices realized will decline. It is a great environment to collect for the sake of collecting, upgrade, hoard favorite sets, etc. Actually, periods of price weakness are healthy once in a while. They help seperate collectors from investors. Bring it on.

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01-23-2008, 09:33 PM

Posted By: Frank WakefieldMy understanding is that Mr. Goodwin knows his collectors. He knows what they're after. He also works the older collectors who're gradually selling a few cards (which is how David B does it, years of trust... ). Mr. Goodwin then will get a card or a set he knows collectors are after, he takes the card to a few shows before the auction to "show" the card and drum up interest. He'll let the special collectors know he's found what they want. Then he sits back while they bid 'em up. I think Mr. Goodwin does that by outworking Mastro.

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01-23-2008, 09:48 PM

Posted By: MVSNYCdecember mastro's auction 2005 1911 T205 Gold Border Frank Chance graded PSA MINT 9 went for $19,785.00

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01-24-2008, 06:52 AM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisI agree with the comments of RICHARD M and SCOTT B.....and, I share Scott's optimism in the economy. 95% of the US work force is employed. And, that is the prime indicator of how well the economy is per- forming. The constant "drum-beat" by the media of a "recession" is a figment of their imagination that is intended to influence the voting public in an election year. Unfortunately, this makes an impact on many who tune in to this media. This "sub-prime" crises is similar to the "Savings & Loan" fiasco in the early 1990s; and, will subside after this Presidential election, if not sooner. Approx. 96% of home owners in this country don't have a problem with paying their Home mortgage or their Equity loans Another prime indicator of our economy is the DOW's performance over the past 26 years, as it illustrates the resiliency of the US economy. During the 1980's the DOW went from 800 to 2800.....in Oct of 1987 the Stock Market had a "glitch" that caused the DOW to dip down to 1700. During the 1990's the DOW climbed from 2800 to 11,500. A mild "recession" in 2000 caused the DOW to drop to 10,000.....and, the terrorist attacks on 9/11 caused the DOW to drop down to 8500. From 2002 to 2007 the DOW has increased from 8500 to 14,000......the macro-economics of our Financial System has shown us that our economy will keep recovering. And, how does all this translate to the value of your BB cards ? You can graph BB card values with the track record of the DOW since 1980; and, you will be surprised how close these two graph curves match each other. TED Z

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01-24-2008, 10:18 AM

Posted By: boxingcardmanThe question is when. There's an old saying: never wrong, only early. If the economy craps the bed when you happen to be nearing retirement you are screwed. If you have 20 years to recover, it is no big deal. Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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01-24-2008, 01:50 PM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisADAM W Think positive guy......I cannot believe you are buying this media's "recession hype" ? You are too smart for that. When I last posted here at 10 AM, the DOW was down 300 points. The DOW just ended POSITIVE 300 points....a 600 point POSITIVE swing....WOW ! Me thinks the economy's premature demise has been greatly exaggerated. TED Z

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01-24-2008, 01:52 PM

Posted By: barrysloateWell it's certainly volatile, no doubt about it. (Psst...but it's not the media's fault, for the record.)

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01-24-2008, 02:05 PM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanTed, I love your optimism.

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01-25-2008, 02:56 AM

Posted By: Rich Klein The biggest problem with the credit crunch; sub-prime; etc. is not that almost all of the people who bought homes did so with the understanding that they could afford the payments; it's not only that a group of people went into homes with ARM's that brought them in; but also it was that supposedly smart bankers bought into the same hype that property values would just continue to explode. So you have people in homes they had no right to be in; both poorer people and people severly over extending themselves-- AND banks playing right along because this was a nice new punch bowl for them to drink out of. And like usual in America, the only people that get hurt, are your average citizen -- not the rich exec's who made these horrible bets and leave with hundreds of millions in severance or those idjits who did what they never should have done; but will still be bailed out by our government. Why can't THOSE people take responsibility for their actions and mistakes? Rich

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01-25-2008, 04:46 AM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanRich, those people are too busy smoking pot at Bridge tournaments and spending their 50 mil a year salaries...

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01-25-2008, 08:33 AM

Posted By: paulstrattonHow do you play Bridge after smoking pot? Barry...so the media isn't at least partly to blame? Negativity sells. I'm sure they'll find something else to focus on after they realize we aren't going down the toilet.

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01-25-2008, 08:44 AM

Posted By: barrysloateThe media isn't perfect by any stretch but I believe the people in charge have to be held accountable. A lot of bad policies, the mortgage crisis, our dependence on oil, and a host of other issues have gotten us where we are today. I'm just not comfortable with the idea of blaming the messenger. If my auction tanks tonight and my consignors are angry, I can't blame it on my computer. I have to take the heat.

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01-25-2008, 01:53 PM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisYour COMPUTER is devoid of emotion and hence....devoid of "bias". Unlike 90% of the "jokers" in the media, that present the "news" to us. Approx. 96% to 98% of home owners have no problem, yet the media chooses to present the "doom and gloom" of about 2-4% that are at risk. The "sub-prime" mortgage crises is primarily the blame of Congress insinuating themselves into the Bank Lending industry in order to provide risky mortgages to people who really could not afford the loans. So, I don't think you'll have to blame your computer tonite....you run one of the best Auctions and you'll do good. TED Z

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01-25-2008, 01:57 PM

Posted By: barrysloateI guess that was a compliment. Thanks. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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01-25-2008, 02:20 PM

Posted By: Joe D.A Boston Garter 1913 SPEAKER sold in a matter of hours on the BST. recession? the good stuff will hold its value. plain and simple.

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01-25-2008, 02:23 PM

Posted By: Corey R. ShanusIf you're not sure what you've received is a compliment, hope you never have cause to have Ted insult you! EDITED for spelling (inasmuch as this was intended for Sloate).

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01-25-2008, 02:35 PM

Posted By: barrysloateJoe- while the Speaker sold quickly, I'm not sure the sale of a Boston Garter has righted everything that is wrong with the economy. Let's call it a very, very, small step for mankind.

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01-25-2008, 04:19 PM

Posted By: boxingcardman"The "sub-prime" mortgage crises is primarily the blame of Congress insinuating themselves into the Bank Lending industry in order to provide risky mortgages to people who really could not afford the loans." Piffle (as my favorite baseball writer might exclaim). Congress NOT insinuating itself into the mortgage market allowed the wild west mentality to take hold among brokers, lenders and securities firms and led to these ridiculously risky loans. I am on front lines of this issue in my practice. You cannot believe the things I've seen: people who make $10 an hour granted mortgages with payments in excess of their gross earnings, loans granted with no investigation of income, complex loan docs signed by functional illiterates on the hoods of cars (no joke), loans granted to people who hadn't even gotten title to the property, etc. All of this because of the deregulation of the industry as a whole and especially the uncoupling of risk from rewards when the loans were bundled and turned into securities with zero oversight or intervention. In the past the banks would have to eat the loans so they made sure that the property was decent and the borrower sound, but deregulation killed that safety net. No sane underwriter would have made most of these bad loans unless the lax regulatory environment and the resulting market demand for these loans allowed for it. We saw the same garbage in the 1980s S & L scandals where loans were made on appraisals that were predicated on falsified valuations created by shared equity transactions (I once sued a developer who offered every low income buyer a shared equity deal where he would front the downpayment on an inflated property value just so he could get 100% of the real sales price financed and cash out that way). If we had strong regulations and active enforcement in place, we'd all be better off. Now, we're going to eat some of this loss in the form of bailouts and reduced economic activity. We need more regulation, not less, if we are to avoid another fiasco like this, especially regulations that flatly prohibit underwriting of "liar loans," 80-10-10 financing, and similar risky deals. Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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01-25-2008, 05:27 PM

Posted By: Corey R. ShanusBoy, I could not agree more. I too have had some direct experience with some of what you describe and let's just say a LOT of bankers, underwriters, mortgage brokers, lawyers should lose everything they had or ever dreamed of having for what went on, not to mention going to jail. As to the politicians under whose watch all this occured, well just thinking about them is not good for my health.

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01-25-2008, 05:34 PM

Posted By: barrysloateI don't think the politicians were watching...I think they looked the other way.

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01-25-2008, 05:50 PM

Posted By: Brian Weisner Hi Barry, I love Ya.... But don't put your head in the sand... The politicians weren't hiding, but HIGHLY involved... Be well Brian PS Dems and Reps both.... encouraged what happened. PS 2 Adam, You are a very smart guy whom I respect, but in this case Ted is pretty well on point. Check the congressional record... they not only encouraged these type of loans,but almost mandated them. Read your Tocqueville....

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01-25-2008, 06:04 PM

Posted By: Martin NealI don't profess to be an economist, but doesn't anyone think that to fight an unpopular war, musn't your economy appear to be strong? And how do you do that.. the Federal Reserve lowers the interest rates it provides to banks, thus boosting low interest loans and spending (especially in the housing market). I, for one, thought that the housing boom lasted unnaturally long. Where does the Federal Reserve gets its money? It prints it! It is my understanding that the European equivalent of the Federal reserve just pumped in Half a trillion dollars just trying to keep pace with our weakening dollar. They have to keep pace with our inflation just to be able to export their goods to us. Why do you think gold has risen so much? In the long term, inflation will probably be more of a problem than a recession. Excuse me, but two glasses of wine is making my head spin. I don't think it is entirely fair to blame the banks, mortgage lenders and overextended home owners for this mess, blame the people behind the wheel, whoever they are.