Price Guides Alan Hager Nostradamus or........

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Posted By: <b>1880nonsports</b><p>Sometimes it's interesting to look at price guides from earlier times. Alan's book easily comes to mind. When it came out my friend Scott and I would LAUGH out loud at some of the prices and predictions of future "growth" potential. I'll offer some thoughts of my own later in the thread (poker night) if there is any interest in this. His book came out in the pivotal growth period for the hobby. The Copeland acquisitions and sale - the Wall Street Journal and financial groups recognition of the "investment" potential of cards - the Wagner - a healthier economy - a wealth of collectibles books - all served to mark what might be considered the beginning of a new age of collecting cards. Do price guides by themselves facilitate investment by allowing a comfort zone to people interested in investing? Do they eventually become self-fulfilling? Is there a value to using them given the volatile and frenetic nature of collectibles? I use the guides to judge RELATIVE prices historically along with realized prices of auctions and asking prices at shows to formulate what I will pay for sumptin..... I have many in my library - although more often than not it is for the ancillary historical information and checklists. Today's collector has a lot of additional information available to them. Price guides are just guides - the motivation for the prices may depend on the author's intent (selling/buying/self-aggrandizement). Alan was a self promoter. Not hard to guess his intent in publishing his guide. Burdick and his ACC is widely accepted on the other end of the spectrum (primarily for it's cataloging) as Jefferson's labor of love. I thought I read somewhere the he was resistant to even including prices but I'm unsure of that - I'll try and find the article. Anyone with any thoughts on the subject of price guides?

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Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I love old price guides. A week or two ago I picked up the Stirling Catalog on ebay and in the back it has a price update. I think a lot of us love these old hobby guides etc.... I believe Dr. Beckett was one of the first ones to come out with a big guide that was up to date and accepted by the masses....I believe he has a degree in statistics too, or something close to that, and that made his guide a little more accurate than others to many folks <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>... More later...great subject though. And speaking of stats, good luck in the poker game this evening.....regards

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Posted By: <b>Tom Boblitt</b><p>Nostril-damus.........<br />Actually the book itself is a work of art. I haven't looked at the prices but I think they are probably much more in line today than they were when they came out. Of course, the book came out at the inception of grading (which I think he takes complete credit for to begin with), so seeing exorbitant prices for 7's, 8's, 9's was shocking for most people. The old price guides are a collectible in their own right now........much competition for them. Nice topic........<br /><br />p.s. don't bet the jack........

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Posted By: <b>Bob</b><p>Hager's prices were way out of whack but in time, the prices caught up. The problem with the book is not only the tons of inaccuracies, misinformation and outright untruths but the grammar is horrible and the spelling atrocious.

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Posted By: <b>Larry</b><p>He should take credit for card grading because he is the one that patented it. The Sixsport guide is one of the most important sportscard references of all time.

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Posted By: <b>TONY Galovich</b><p>Hager is like a Mad Scientist, Intelligent but Very Dangerous

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Posted By: <b>pas</b><p>I believe Mr. Hager patented the "arrowhead" holder with recessed corners, and that at least for a time PSA paid him license fees. I have heard he also patented the 1-10 grading system but that does not strike me as an enforceable patent.

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Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>"...the grammar is horrible and the spelling atrocious"<br /><br />We have to deal with that on Net 54 as well. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br />JimB<br /><br />P.S. The Hagar book has some great pictures. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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Posted By: <b>Misunderestimated (Brian H.)</b><p>Despite its glaring flaws (the spelling, self-promotion etc.) there was one really great thing about that book that still impresses me: Hagar actually provided information that about the relative scarcity of sets that went beyond simply calling some "rare." <br /><br />Before that book I really didn't know just how cards from many sets were... I loved the pictures too!<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>peter ullman</b><p>while I own this book...and have enjoyed certain aspects of the book like the pictures...the detailed examples of grading cards...and the inaccurate rarity rating is interesting. My gripe is in it's inaccuracies...which are plentiful...and absurd prices. It took how many years for the prices to catch up?

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Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>This was one of the better listings of boxing cards I had for a long time. There just wasn't a lot out there that I had access to until fairly recently.<br><br>Adam B

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Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>His prices were insane at the time as were his grades and rarity ratings. I'd not get ready to canonize him just yet.

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Posted By: <b>DR</b><p>Are you sure just the prices were (are) insane?<br /><br />Check out this 'EX - MT' card currently listed on eBay (a PSA or SGC 1 or 2 at best):<br /><br /><a href="http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-PHILADELPHIA-CARAMEL_W0QQitemZ200175601721QQihZ010QQcategoryZ73 433QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-PHILADELPHIA-CARAMEL_W0QQitemZ200175601721QQihZ010QQcategoryZ73 433QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem</a><br /><br /><img src="http://i13.ebayimg.com/07/i/000/c5/82/7cb2_3.JPG"><br /><img src="http://i9.ebayimg.com/01/i/000/c5/82/7e1a_3.JPG"><br /><br />P.S. Hopefully nobody is upset with me outing this auction...consider this a fraud alert!<br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>Larry</b><p>Even ASA never overgraded by that much. Someone has busted opened the slab and replaced the original card with a lower grade example. Why does his scan/photo neglect to include the edges of the slab?

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Posted By: <b>1880nonsports</b><p>I say that's the card that was in the holder from day one. I have seen many examples of his coins and cards. The grade looks to be spot-on to what his grading standards were. Looks only to be 4 grades off. Interesting read if you do a search using his name/company. Apparently a few people created an anti-hager website with some fun observations. I'm unsure if it's still there.... Noted for observational purposes only.

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Posted By: <b>Larry</b><p>Those ASA slabs contained cards that consistently graded one grade lower, but no way is that the original card graded a 6. It is substituted. You could pop those open at the top with one pry and slide anything you want down in there, then snap it back shut. Again, why is the entire slab not shown in the auction scans?