View Full Version : Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
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09-22-2007, 08:14 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>It will be interesting to watch Steve Novella's auction of a considerable number of T206 PSA 8 commons on ebay.<br /><br />He has pop 1s starting at $10,000<br />Pop 2s starting at $5,000<br />pop 3s starting at $3,000<br />pop 4s starting at $2,000<br />pop 5s starting at $1,500<br />pop 6s and above starting at $1,000<br /><br />Should be a lot of action--for those of you who don't know him, no better, more honest dealer than Steve to deal with.<br /><br />Jim
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09-22-2007, 08:25 AM
Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>but I have recently marveled at the stuff he has available for sale.<br /><br />good to hear he has your confidence... <br />I was going to ask the board about him - <br />and you beat me to the punch.<br /><br />
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09-22-2007, 08:32 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>Jim- i've been watching these 8's. the 1/1 examples will NOT sell at $10,000 each. the only one who MIGHT get a few at that price is Don Loucios, but i doubt he would go that high. i would also be surprised if the pop 2 cards sell at $5000. the higher pop cards should get some action.
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09-22-2007, 08:41 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Joe,<br /><br />I have known him for close to 20 years and cannot say enough good things about him.<br /><br />Mike,<br /><br />Oh, okay--I guess I will pull my $5,000-$10,000 bids?
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09-22-2007, 08:43 AM
Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>On this one I completely agree with Jim C. I have the highest regard for Steve.
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09-22-2007, 08:46 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>Jim- there's no starting bids on those low pop cards, what are talking about?
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09-22-2007, 08:53 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Not out there yet--I was kidding--just think its premature to say they will not get bids--according to Steve the inquiry level is high.
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09-22-2007, 08:53 AM
Posted By: <b>Zinn</b><p>Might someone want to provide a link to his auctions or provide an ebay handle? Thanks
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09-22-2007, 08:57 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>He is an advertiser here, double click on his ad--also just punch in T206 psa 8 on ebay and then hit seller's other auctions and they will all pop up for you.
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09-22-2007, 08:57 AM
Posted By: <b>Jim VB</b><p><a href="http://stores.ebay.com/Steve-Novellas-PSA-Graded-Cards" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://stores.ebay.com/Steve-Novellas-PSA-Graded-Cards</a><br /><br /><br />Steve is one of our banner advertisers here. If you keep refreshing the page, his ad will come up. Then you can just click and go to his Ebay store. <br /><br /><br /><br />(Edit to fix the link.)
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09-22-2007, 08:59 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>Jim- true, maybe too premature, and i hope Steve does well with these cards, i guess i should say "i'd be surprised" IF...
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09-22-2007, 09:00 AM
Posted By: <b>Zinn</b><p>Thanks guys. I knew he was an advertiser but didn't know the refresh method of finding him.
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09-22-2007, 09:31 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I think we're all curious how Steve's cards fare - high prices for very high grade common T206s with low pop. Interesting to see how this shakes out.
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09-22-2007, 09:35 AM
Posted By: <b>Wesley</b><p>Aren't some of these the T206s that were listed on ebay a few months ago and went unsold? Has Steve lowered the prices since last time?<br /><br /><br /><br />
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09-22-2007, 09:41 AM
Posted By: <b>John Basilone</b><p>Jim,<br /><br />Do you own or did you own any of these cards? Just wondering.
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09-22-2007, 09:47 AM
Posted By: <b>peter ullman</b><p>i personally think this "experiment" will prove the market is a little softer for high grade t206's than one may think. that matty was my first vintage card when I was a tot...some beaters aint so bad!<br /><br />pete in mn<br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/tmp/1190983646.JPG"> <br /><br />edited size
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09-22-2007, 09:50 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>OK, i actually am giving this some thought, and here are my predictions...let's see how close i come...<br /><br />Pop 1s starting at $10,000...Loucios might get one or two, but doubtful at that price. i think Loucios & Spence will stay away from these.<br /><br />Pop 2s starting at $5,000...IF Loucios or Spence need any of them, they will probably get some in the $5000-5500 range. IF they BOTH need the same card(s), then you will see some fireworks ($6000-8000?).<br /><br />Pop 3s starting at $3,000...might sell $3250-3750. here is where Scott Ireland might come into the game.<br /><br />Pop 4s starting at $2,000...might sell $2000-2500.<br /><br />Pop 5s starting at $1,500...should sell $1500-1700.<br /><br />Pop 6s and above starting at $1,000...should sell $1300-1500.<br /><br />by the way...are there any 9's above these cards, or not? because that will, obviously change the whole landscape...<br /><br /><br />Michael Sarno
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09-22-2007, 10:01 AM
Posted By: <b>Keith O'Leary</b><p><P>I don't always <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>, but on Steve Novella's reputation as being an honest, 1st rate, affable and no BS person to deal with, I completely agree with Jim and Peter. I wish him the best of luck with these cards.</P>
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09-22-2007, 10:14 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Michael,<br /><br />You are an expert in the set but I think you may be surprised. Don Louchios has paid over $10K for a pop 1 common in the past. Don Spence is a player and tough to beat if he wants a card. Ireland is a player and we just may see some new bidders. <br /><br />Whatever--as I said--I think this will be a market defining event.
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09-22-2007, 10:51 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>"Don Louchios has paid over $10K for a pop 1 common in the past. Don Spence is a player and tough to beat if he wants a card. Ireland is a player..."<br /><br />Jim- that's pretty much paraphrasing my post...i think we are actually in agreement on the situation...IF these guys need these super low pop cards, we will see fireworks, as i mentioned...the higher pop cards will have less exciting final prices...<br /><br />thank you for your compliment, you have my respect, as well.<br /><br />MS
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09-22-2007, 11:04 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>In a sense the value of these cards will be determined by who one is bidding against. You will probably see some volatility with incredibly high and surprisingly soft prices at the same time.
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09-22-2007, 11:11 AM
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>So much for my quietly taking all of them...
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09-22-2007, 11:15 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>cobby- you take the $10,000 ones, and we'll take the rest <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-22-2007, 11:20 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />No such thing as surprisingly soft--the only soft price is a no bid.
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09-22-2007, 11:21 AM
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>I'll put in another good word for Steve Novella. I haven't actually purchased any cards from him in the recent past, but I have asked about a few cards, looked at some more and asked for a few scans. Every time, he was courteous, quick to respond and generous with his time and information. It just happened not to work out as far as a sale was concerned, but I wouldn't hesitate to buy from him if the card and price were right for me.
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09-22-2007, 11:31 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- I should clarify.<br /><br />Suppose there are two pop 4's in the auction. In one case the big three collectors each already have an example. In the other, each of the big three happens to need it.<br /><br />What is the difference in price between those two cards?<br /><br />And I too should add that Steve is a real good guy and I wish him well with the sale.
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09-22-2007, 11:38 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />I agree there may be big differences in prices. All I am saing is that the minimums are set high enough that as long as there is 1 bid the seller should not be too disappointed
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09-22-2007, 11:45 AM
Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>This topic "outs" ongoing auctions on ebay and is contrary to this board's often-expressed policy against doing that sort of thing. I don't intend to bid on any of these cards but I do not appreciate your outing an ongoing ebay auction.
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09-22-2007, 12:04 PM
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>I offered up one of my T-206 PSA 9 MINT Fred Jacklitsch cards a few months ago, and didn't get a bite at $7,500. But I guess the PSA 8's are more valuable <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-22-2007, 12:07 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>BCM,<br /><br />Honestly don't care if you appreciate it or not--I appreciate almost none of your posts.<br /><br />It is a market defining event in the post popular pre-war set that exists. And the post has quickly developed into one of the most hotly talked about posts on the board.
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09-22-2007, 12:08 PM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>Marc- your PSA 9 is 1/4...<br /><br />don't get me wrong, i would prefer a PSA 9 (i've owned about 6 or 7 of them in the past, and they are so stunning)...<br /><br />but, in the eyes of the top set reg guys, a 1/1- 8 non-higher, might as well be a 10...
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09-22-2007, 12:11 PM
Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>"It is a market defining event in the post popular pre-war set that exists. And the post has quickly developed into one of the most hotly talked about posts on the board."<br /><br />Edit: I agree that it is a hotly talked about post.<br /><br />Like someone interested in high grade T206 would have missed them had they not been "outed". GMAFB
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09-22-2007, 12:18 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Marc,<br /><br />Shame on you for trying to get $7500 for a pop 4--you as well as anyone know that its all about the pops.
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09-22-2007, 12:19 PM
Posted By: <b>Rob</b><p>I have to 2nd BCMs thought. If we can't out other ebay listings, these should be no different. I don't have a personal interest in the auctions, but if they are "landmark" then we can still talk about it when its over and throw a parade or whatever you wanna do. Too late now.<br /><br />Rob<br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-22-2007, 12:23 PM
Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>I think there is a difference to be had here. If an item is correctly listed in it's proper category and is one that anyone would have been able to find irrespective of an "outing" I believe our moderator has stated that the rule may be relaxed in such instance.<br /><br />Edited for sloppy typing errors.
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09-22-2007, 12:25 PM
Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Let's let the mod do his job; if you don't think he's doing it well, send him an email. I don't think we should be debating here which posts belong unless the mod asked us to do so.
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09-22-2007, 12:27 PM
Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>I don't see where Jim did anything wrong.
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09-22-2007, 12:30 PM
Posted By: <b>Rob</b><p>"<i>Like someone interested in high grade T206 would have missed them had they not been "outed". GMAFB</i>"<br /><br />Steve, I don't think anyone that actively LOOKS for high grade T206 cards would necessarily miss these auctions, but I think posting the active auctions and getting all this excitement going on a popular forum as this would certainly attract some attention from investors that <i>perhaps</i> wouldn't even have known the population rarities of these cards. <br /><br />I'm a relative newbie to net54 (like 6-9 months? a year? I dunno) and I keep hearing that proper etiquette is to not "out" active listings, so just thought I'd offer my POV.<br /><br />I certainly hope the best for Steve Novella and his auctions! <br /><br />Rob<br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br /><br />
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09-22-2007, 12:36 PM
Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>I see your point and respect your position but I'm not real sure there are many investors lurking on this board to make any difference.<br /><br />It would be nice if the moderator would wade in on his position regarding this matter. (But I guess he's too busy out looking at those 500,000 card finds) <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-22-2007, 12:37 PM
Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>Assuming the mod is watching, by allowing the post to continue, hasn't he weighed in?
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09-22-2007, 12:48 PM
Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>To “wade in”<br /><br />“To plunge into, begin, or attack resolutely and energetically”<br /><br /><br />To “weigh in”<br /><br />“To make a forceful statement in a discussion”<br /><br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-22-2007, 12:49 PM
Posted By: <b>Matt</b><p>The grammar police are out in full force today! Is it near the end of the month and you guys have to fill a quota? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-22-2007, 01:03 PM
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>The subject of "outing" ongoing auctions has been successfully debated on this board many times. Although I cringe at seeing them outed there just can't be a rule against it. I sincerely hope folks don't do it but if it happens it happens. There is NO RULE against it. <br /><br /><br /> Since Steve N. is an advertiser I do wish him the best with the auctions and, from all I have heard and know, he is a wonderful person to deal with. I don't know of anything that can't be debated on the board so have at it.....btw, I was just at a postcard show with Rich Klein, in Richardson TX, and it was fun but not too productive. I saw one Colgans chip common in gd- condition with a price tag of $150....and the lady said she could do $125..... Obviously, not a baseball card dealer....
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09-22-2007, 01:21 PM
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>Jim, would one be correct to assume that if you manage to talk these PSA 8 t206's up to a high enough price that you will re-consign your PSA 8 t206's, that went unsold, to Steve Novella again?<br><br>
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09-22-2007, 01:24 PM
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>It's not like any of the four Jacklitsch PSA 9s have been offered publicly in the last 6 years.<br /><br />At any rate -- if you can get a PSA 9 for $7,500 -- wouldn't it make sense to get a PSA 9 and a PSA 7, spend less than $10k total, instead of paying $10k apiece for PSA 8 Pop 1s? It has the same Registry impact.<br /><br />And Jacklitsch is really tough in PSA 8, too -- there's only two of them. What are those worth?<br /><br />Don't mean to hijack this thread. I just find discussions like these somewhat funny. Perhaps let's revisit if a whole bunch of PSA 8 pop 1s actually sell for $10k. I think there are enough PSA 8s in pop 1/2 that have sold in auction format (and not fixed price) that give a much more realistic estimation of value.<br /><br />m
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09-22-2007, 04:00 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Marc,<br /><br />It was all said tongue in cheek.<br /><br />I think the card is worth $7500.<br /><br />Jim
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09-22-2007, 04:59 PM
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>I don't see what's the problem with "outing" these auctions. It's not like they are going to sell cheap or poorly described or in the wrong category. People get upset when an auction is outed when that auction is poorly described, in the wrong category and the potential exists to get the item cheap.<br /><br />Jay<br><br>The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.
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09-22-2007, 05:27 PM
Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>We've had this discussion before and while there is no rule, it is something that many on this board do not appreciate, myself included. <br /><br />It also smacks of unseemly apple-polishing when someone with a major investment in similar cards that he's offered for sale through the same seller touts that seller's very high priced auctions.
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09-22-2007, 05:39 PM
Posted By: <b>dstudeba</b><p>I agree with Adam. The argument that "Oh everyone would have seen it" has been used before and is BS. I can think of a particular rare, highly desirable card that was properly described and put in the right place on eBay within the past year. Someone brought it up on NET54 while it was going on and people said "No worries, everyone saw it". The winner later told me that he saw it because of the thread, since he didn't have time to comb the whole Pre-30s singles section.
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09-22-2007, 06:02 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>This is a major newsworthy event with significant implications for pricing of the most popular set around.<br /><br />I don't see anyone complaining when Barry posts a thread about his auction ending tonight.<br /><br />Also to suggest I am doing this so I could sell my own cards is nothing short bof ludicrous.
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09-22-2007, 06:16 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>But that's a thread about my own auction, not somebody else's. I have the right to "out" my own.<br /><br />This is a bit of a gray area. Adam's position is fair but I see a distinction between an obscure and rare item that is in the wrong category, versus a major event with what I assume to be a few hundred lots. That would be like outing a Mastro or REA auction- they're kind of hard to miss.
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09-22-2007, 06:33 PM
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>Jim, i can't believe that you think it is a major hobby event when a dealer lists a bunch of overpriced cards on ebay that in all likelihood will not sell.<br />I would dare say that if you think it's ludicrous that you are pimping your own cards, then you are the only one that thinks that way. Everybody is quite aware why you started this thread.<br><br>
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09-22-2007, 06:36 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Can I get clarification: Are the cards that Steve is selling belong to Jim? Or are they simply in the same vein of what he collects?
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09-22-2007, 06:37 PM
Posted By: <b>dstudeba</b><p>Won't the implications on pricing be <u>after</u> the auctions are over?
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09-22-2007, 06:45 PM
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>Barry, it's not that he "collects" cards in the same vein. It's that a few months ago he consigned similar cards to the same dealer who listed the cards on ebay, but they did not sell. There's no reason to believe that these cards are not for sale, although not listed on ebay.<br><br>
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09-22-2007, 06:46 PM
Posted By: <b>Wesley</b><p>Barry, Initially, I thought this was the same group of PSA 8 T206s that Steve Novella listed on behalf of Jim but did not receive bids. But as it turns out, this is a different group.
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09-22-2007, 06:49 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I certainly hope this is a different group, and it couldn't hurt if Jim would come on and clarify it.
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09-22-2007, 06:49 PM
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>It's always been a custom on Net54 that "board friendly" auction houses can out their auctions. Of course I wouldn't expect any that don't like the way this board is run to do so....
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09-22-2007, 06:52 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Funny Elliott--want to put your money where your mouth is? In all liklihood will not sell? Want to bet on that or are you just mouthing off?<br /><br />Nobody who knows me personally would think I am pimping my own cards. Steve is a friend--but this is a very important auction in the most important set on the board.<br /><br />As for the overpriced cards you sound like a disgruntled guy who missed the boom in graded card valuies--sorry. Lets see if the market thinks they are overvalued.<br /><br />So Barry, its okay to advertise your own auctions on Net 54 with a thread but you cannot start a thread on the importance of a block of cards going up on ebay.<br /><br />Okay, I get it.
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09-22-2007, 06:53 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>And not that I want to tell anybody how to run their business but... if these PSA 8 low pops are so red hot why is there a need to place such a high price/reserve on them that they won't even sell? I would think you could start them at a nickel and they would still reach a multi-thousand dollar level.<br /><br />I never understood the point of listing something not to sell. But that's just my three cents.
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09-22-2007, 06:55 PM
Posted By: <b>Wesley</b><p>How are you so certain these will sell?<br /><br />When Steve listed a group of your cards, they received zero bids. Were those not low pop PSA 8s as well?
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09-22-2007, 06:56 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Yes Jim, it's okay for me to announce my auction and it is equally alright for you to discuss Steve's auction (let's put the outing component aside for the moment). I just wanted to know if these were your cards or not. Fair question?
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09-22-2007, 06:57 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry--whats so difficult. You only want to sell at a certain price. I think these prices are reasonable and over half wwill get bids. You never heard of a guy who says I gotta get $10,000 for the card or I won't sell it--so you set your minimum at that price--I have done that often--sometimes nobody bites and sometimes bingo.
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09-22-2007, 07:00 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Wesley,<br /><br />I am not certain these will sell? Who knows? I would bet that over half will--maybe I am wrong?<br /><br />Beautiful cards.<br /><br />Barry--we are in agreement--I think both should be allowed to run and so does Leon.
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09-22-2007, 07:00 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I'm just distinguishing between a retail sale and an auction. In retail you can ask whatever you please; in the spirit of an auction you should leave room for multiple bidders to place their bids and have a healthy competition. That's all- no big deal.
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09-22-2007, 07:01 PM
Posted By: <b>wesleyliu</b><p>BREAKING NEWS<br /><br />Seymour and Durham got bids today.<br /><br /><br /><br />
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09-22-2007, 07:08 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />A lot of ebay auctions have high opening bids as the seller refuses to sell for below what the crad is worth.
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09-22-2007, 07:09 PM
Posted By: <b>Tom Nieves</b><p>Jim,<br /><br />Please provide a straightforward answer to John Basilone's question from 11:41 am. Thank you.<br /><br />Tom<br /><br /><br /><br />***********************************<br /><br /><br /><br /><i>John Basilone<br />(Login John_Basilone) Re: Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event? September 21 2007, 11:41 AM <br /><br /><br />Jim,<br /><br />Do you own or did you own any of these cards? Just wondering.</i><br /><br /> <br /> <br />
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09-22-2007, 07:10 PM
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>Jim, got me, i'm forever doomed to be an armpit collector. Perhaps, you could help me find a job as I haven't worked in 12 years. Then I'd be able to buy a card or two and people like you wouldn't think I was beneath them.<br><br>
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09-22-2007, 07:12 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I understand why sellers do it, and it's a sound idea for material that may not be hot at the moment.<br /><br />But don't you think T206 low pops in PSA 8 are "can't miss" items? Based on your enthusiasm I can't imagine any would go for less than full market value.
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09-22-2007, 07:15 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Elliot,<br /><br />I don't know you but you started by insulting me and I responded. If you would like to apologize and move on fine. If not, thats fine too but don't pull this I think I'm better that you junk on me.
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09-22-2007, 07:21 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />When you set the minimum bid for a pop 1 psa 8 just $100 lower than the all-time high of over $10,000, I would not call it a can't miss item. Certainly almost everyone would love to have these in their collection but there comes a point that if you raise them to a certain level collectors will not bid.<br /><br />You say based on my enthusiasm? I think it is a very important auction--my guess would be over half will sell--I would say as far as prices I would not differ too much for Michael Sarno--the King of the 206s--as to their value.
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09-22-2007, 07:22 PM
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>Jim, please re-read the thread, you will see that i have not insulted you, rather the only post with an insult is the one where you call me a "disgruntled guy". If there is any apology that is necessary it is you to me. BTW, please say hello to Jerry Isaacs next time you see him, it's been a while since we talked.<br><br>
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09-22-2007, 07:23 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>What I'm asking is if you started a pop 1 card at a nickel, based on its rarity and high demand, wouldn't you think it would still sell for around 10K?
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09-22-2007, 07:26 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Elliot,<br /><br />As I recall you said I started the thread to pimp my own cards or something like that and that "everybody" mbelieves this? I consider this an insult to my character as I would never do such a thing and I think you should apologize for that comment.
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09-22-2007, 07:27 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />Probably not. My guess is most pop 1s won't sell but then again I think at least one will.
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09-22-2007, 07:28 PM
Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>Are very contemporary. They are based on "pop" which is not necessarily stagnant and, in all likelihood, will change for many (if not most) of these cards. Moreover, they rely on PSA which is hardly the favorite grading company among pre-war collectors.<br /><br />I think sharp, high grade cards are really sweet -- assuming they're unaltered. But if you are buying them based on a pop report in 2007, don't expect that the pop report will either be the same -- or, more importantly -- mean the same thing in 1, 2, 5, or 10 years from now. <br /><br />It is the pre-war equivalent of collecting LeBron James 1 of 1 signature cards.
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09-22-2007, 07:33 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>T206(sorry I forgot your name again),<br /><br />These are all familiar refrains from you--lets see what they go for. <br /><br />By the way, how does the price on sgc 8s compare with psa 8s(the favorite of pre-war collectors)?<br /><br />
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09-22-2007, 07:36 PM
Posted By: <b>Elliot</b><p>Jim, i will grant you that "perhaps" you started this thread because you are caught up with selling your cards, therefore you saw the listings by Steve Novella as being an important hobby event, and you did not realize that the net effect was to "pimp" (a word that i did not use in my first post, but only in response to your denial) your own cards which although not explicitly on the market, are for sale.<br />FWIW, i believe that a number of these PSA 8 will sell, as it was not long ago that PSA 7's were selling for over $1000, so it's reasonable to assume that people will purchase some of the lower priced PSA 8's which have a starting price at that level. There's no predicting the sale of the low pops as all it takes is one collector to pull the trigger if he wants the card and feels like spending the money. <br><br>
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09-22-2007, 07:38 PM
Posted By: <b>Tom Nieves</b><p>Jim has been ducking John Basilone's question for nearly 10 hours. At this point, I believe the answer is obvious.
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09-22-2007, 07:50 PM
Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p><<T206(sorry I forgot your name again)>><br /><br />S'okay, I go by T206 on here. <br /><br /><<These are all familiar refrains from you.>><br /><br />They are usually in response to your reliance on pop reports as more than a contemporary indicator of how many of a certain card a certain grading company has graded on a date/time certain. Your posts rely on the flawed assumption that a population report will remain (a) constant for that card; and (b) relevant for that grading company. Because we cannot know how many of which card will be graded by a certain grading company in the future -- or whether that grading company's reputation will be as good or better in the future -- basing purchasing decisions on a pop report is naive -- unless you are looking for a quick flip to a like-minded collector who also is naive about pop reports. <br /><br />Since PSA 8 sales are driven by 2 or more people that purchase PSA 8 cards based on this same flawed reasoning, it is not surprising that (a) PSA would outperform SGC here; or (b) that an SGC 88 would be crossed immediately into a PSA 8 holder to sell to this crowd. Indeed, Lionel Carter's collection was graded by Mastro through SGC, unless there was a card that would have an impact on the PSA Set Registry, in which case it was graded by PSA -- to specifically target this audience.<br /><br />If you want to play the Set Registry game in the short term, you may very well be able to take advantage of the demand in that market place. But if you are interested in maintaining a value of $10,000 on a PSA 8 common card based on a pop report, well then, in my opinion you would be better off spending $10,000 on 5 PSA 8 T206 cards with a larger population.<br />
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09-22-2007, 07:51 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Elliot,<br /><br />I hate to disappoint you but my cards are not for sale and selling my cards is not an option today. At a certain price and at some future time perhaps--I am more inclined to be a buyer now.
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09-22-2007, 07:53 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>John Basilone???<br /><br />Last time I heard about him he was fighting it out with Michael Bow on the SGC boards.<br /><br />Whatever happened to him?
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09-22-2007, 08:09 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>T206,<br /><br />Where I would differ from you is that the relative pops will stay fairly constant. It is difficult to say that in this set because the pops are so low but in sets where there are more 8s the lower pop 8s 2 years ago are the lower pops today.<br /><br />I would certainly agree that if you paid $10,000 for a psa 8 pop 1 common and another popped up the price would drop. On the other hand if 5 years from now that is still a pop 1(certainly possible) it might be a $20,000 card. While this may be tough to comprehend we live in a bifurcated economy and there are a few collectors I know that I think spend several million a year on cards. Also some of us just gotta have psa 8 sets no matter what the cost. Sevens or less just won't cut it. Thus, the buyer may think probably not a good investment but to do the psa 8 and better set I gotta buy it.
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09-22-2007, 08:13 PM
Posted By: <b>Tom Nieves</b><p>Michael Bow... now there's a real winner!<br /><br />I'll drop the subject regarding John Basilone's post in this thread.
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09-22-2007, 08:29 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Tom,<br /><br />I do not own any of these cards nor have I ever owned them. And to answer another question, I have no idea who does own them.
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09-22-2007, 09:04 PM
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>of data out there on Pop 1 cards from the T-206 set in both PSA 8 and PSA 9 from many of the major auction houses in the past 12-18 months. Those auctions were all started at modest amounts, and the market was allowed to decide the true value of these cards, as opposed to an arbitrary opening bid. Although some auction houses have questionable tactics (was it a real sale?), I will always defer to those prices realized as a more important and relevant data point than someone listing at prices that are basically guaranteed to have relatively few, if any, actual sales.<br />
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09-22-2007, 09:06 PM
Posted By: <b>John Basilone</b><p>Hi Jim,<br /><br />I thought the last batch of high grade T206's that Steve listed were consigned by you and that there may have been some of those cards mixed into this current offering. I may be wrong there, but that was the rumor going around. That was the reason for my post. Anyways, I hope all is well with you. Shoot me an email next time you are in Cleveland on business.<br /><br />John
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09-22-2007, 09:17 PM
Posted By: <b>joe</b><p>Jim probably does not own these cards, but hopes they sell high. He has cards graded as high as these and it will result in more income if they sell high. Not sure if outing the auction will help, but any collector or dealer with cards in the same grade would hope for high prices.<br /><br />Joe<br><br>Ty Cobb, Spikes flying!
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09-22-2007, 09:24 PM
Posted By: <b>Misunderestimated (Brian H.)</b><p>Seems like a rather "chippy" thread...<br /> They are really beautiful cards and the auctions (and the priceing strategies) are fun to follow in a Forbes' magazine way. I'm happy to be aware of them and they are rather interesting<br /><br />I agree with whomever it was (Adam?) about the no outing auctions code in general but I think it doesn't matter here for a number of reasons. I sm sure that Jim had no intent to do anything improper too.<br /><br />As for "market defining" I think that may need some qualifying. From what I know about the upper echelon of the Registry and from the posts from those who seem to be in the know it these auctions basically tell us what a few guys might be willing to pay for the highest PSA graded T206 commons if they need them right now. That defines a very small part of the top of the market. Certainly an interesting part of the market but unlikely to have that much impact on the larger market for T206s unless the population of bidders is much greater than the posts above suggest. As a spectator it would be more interesting if the auctions started much lower (move the decimel place over for starters0. But if I were the seller/consignor that would be too risky for me.
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09-22-2007, 10:29 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>John,<br /><br />Long time--no hear. I thought you had forgotten about me. <br /><br />I like to keep em guessin on this board John--if you want to know what I am buying and selling you can e-mail me and I will tell you. They don't believe me here anyway. I can say these aren't mine and I am not a seller yet one expert says I am pimping my own cards and everyone is quite aware why I started the thread!<br /><br />Steve is my friend--it is an important auction regarding a major set...and believe it or not some don't consider high-end graded card collecting the heart and soul of the hobby.<br /><br />Jim<br /><br />
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09-22-2007, 10:41 PM
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>it is only important if it is a true "auction" format -- e.g. started modestly and then the market decides on the price. By starting Pop 1's at $10k -- it is only a ploy to try and entice two or three high-grade T-206 buyers to make an above-market investment in a common from a very popular set. It will not be an auction in that three whales will each be bidding each other up over the $10k entrance fee. The card either doesn't sell (85% chance), or it sells for the minimum bid (15% change). That, in my mind, is not an auction or a reflection of true market value. It is simply a negotiated sale that takes place in an otherwise open forum.<br /><br />Most of here residing in the armpit of the hobby...<br />A Ty Cobb Bat Off PSA 7 will set you back approximately $6,200<br />A Ty Cobb Red Portrait PSA 6 will set you back approximately $3,700<br /><br />If I polled 100 Net 54 posters and readers -- I can only imagine that less than 5 would seriously even consider taking a Pop 1 PSA 8 T-206 over the PSA 7 and PSA 6 Cobbs from the same set referenced above. And of those five -- I'm guessing that at least three of them would try and exploit Set Registry players to monetize their investment as soon sa they got it.<br /><br />That's all I got from my armchair.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />Marc
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09-22-2007, 11:15 PM
Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>I'm not buying that auctions are the only way to define a market price. Too much emotion gets involved and that could either help or in some auctioneers case hurt the final hammer.<br /><br />Here we have a professional making a price and the collectors will decide if now is the time for $10K PSA 8 commons.<br /><br />I don't have a horse in this race, but I will be watching these results. The board was a far more interesting read today due to these high profile auctions being outed.<br /><br />Someone should ask the seller if he would refund if they were submitted to another respected authority and their opinion differed from PSA's opinion.
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09-22-2007, 11:47 PM
Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>"...and believe it or not some don't consider high-end graded card collecting the heart and soul of the hobby."<br /><br />That is quite a statement. How does one define the heart and soul of this hobby? Is it the set registry guy who has the means and desire to shell out five figures for a low pop T206 common? Or is it a guy who may or may not have the means but chooses to spend his money not on condition rarities but on cards that are simply rare or cards that simply appeal to him, which appeal is not hampered by the card not having the best technical features? Is heart and soul represented by passion and knowledge, or is it represented by insatiable demand for bragging rights? While I collect in a manner different from a set registry guy, I respect their right to collect how they see fit. If that is how they derive their satisfaction and enjoyment from this hobby, who am I to tell them not to do it? And no, I am not saying that they cannot have passion and knowledge. But I respectfully disagree that they represent the heart and soul of the hobby.
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09-23-2007, 01:59 AM
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>"This is a major newsworthy event with significant implications for pricing of the most popular set around."<br /><br />Are you KIDDING me? I checked the NY Times, LA Times, SF Chronicle and the Petaluma Argus Courier and none seemed to feature this auction.<br /><br />The only thing potentially newsworthy here is how I can get PSA to assign my "Auth" cards high grades. <br /><br />Finally- anyone who thinks that self-promotion without actually having a card for sale is not self-serving, must think that the reader is the biggest dunce since the monkey wrapped his tail around the flagpole. Seriously, every single thread started with, i.e., "isn't the spike in T205's amazing" is hardly a random observation by a casual observer. So- if you want to self-promote, or "pimp" your collection (whether you're selling or not)- go for it. But don't shroud it in a happenstance, "guess what I found." We're not that lame.<br />
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09-23-2007, 02:32 AM
Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>Your comment...."A Market Defining Event?"....has to be one of the most absurd<br />statements I have read on this Forum.<br /><br />A "Market Defining Event" is......<br /><br />The Copeland sale at Sotheby's in the early '90s.<br /><br />Or, Alan Rosen's huge 1952 Topps Hi# find in the mid-'80s.<br /><br />Or, Brian Wentz's recent huge 1952 Bowman FB (large) find.<br /><br />Or, the T206 Wagner being flipped each time to its current value of 2 Million+<br /><br /><br />I could go on and on, but I think I made my point......<br /><br />However, I don't think you will get it....as, you are encapsulated in your own<br /> little 'gold-plated plastic" world.<br /><br />TED Z
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09-23-2007, 05:41 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Corey,<br /><br />Relax--my comments were tongue in cheek given my previous backbone comment--thought this was obvious.<br /><br />Cobby,<br /><br />Don't get why I am trying to promote my T206s--this is not a focus set for me--you are saying any set I talk about a graded card auction I am "pimping" my own cards.<br /><br />Ted,<br /><br />Thats because you are not a high-end graded card collector. You view things differently. <br /><br />For example if Charlie Merkel sold his 52 Topps all-world set card by card I would call this a market defining event. There are enough psa 8 cards of different pops that one can get a good handle on the market for 8s in the post popular pre-war set there is.<br /><br />
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09-23-2007, 06:36 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I agree with Marc S -- because the large majority of the cards won't sell this is not a market-defining instance. For example, if one of the cards was of a player that I collected I'd pony up for more than what the card was worth simply because I wanted it for my collection, knowing that I was throwing some money away for the right to own the card. That does not make the card 'worth' that amount (except to me). Same goes with these Registry-rare cards: some collector on the Registry may desperately need the card for his set and will be willing to pay above market price for it. Upon resale, that card is worth much less. For example, I sold a very low pop high grade prewar card recently on ebay for $3500 as two Registry guys battled it out. The same grade card, same grade sold 6 months later on ebay for $1500. What was the card truly worth? On low pop high grade commons, you need more than one sale to define a market value when you have such a thing population of people who want them.
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09-23-2007, 07:02 AM
Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>Thanks for the clarification. I guess with all your prior posts I somehow came to the conclusion that that statement reflected your actual views thus preventing me from distinguishing a remark meant to be tongue in cheek.
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09-23-2007, 07:09 AM
Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>Why don't we just all agree that it will be interesting to see if some of these cards fetch record prices and leave it at that?
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09-23-2007, 07:27 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />If you are right(and you may be)that the large majority of cards won't sell then that is a market defining event. I was also not aware that there may be player collectors competing for T206 psa 8 commons. I do agree with you, however, that the market is thin and prices can vary considerably. Not often do this many cards of a vintage set come up for sale with a number of pops available.<br /><br />I also think that Steve's sales of 53 Bowman Black & White and 49 Leaf are very important for defining value and it will also be interesting to see what happens with his 39 Play Ball and 34-36 Batter-Up sets.
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09-23-2007, 07:45 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>wow, i missed alot in the last 16 hours...<br /><br />Jim- thanks for the compliment, but there are many more T206 collectors on here who could easily be refered to as the "king of T206"- ted, brian w., scot r., hank/scott levy, etc.<br /><br />Marc- i agree with you on this: "Those auctions were all started at modest amounts, and the market was allowed to decide the true value of these cards, as opposed to an arbitrary opening bid."<br /><br />BUT...<br /><br />...this may shock you, i would easily take a PSA 8 1/1 (none higher) over a PSA 6 or 7 cobb, anyday, call me crazy...it has nothing to do with flipping it to the big set reg guys, it simply would be cool owning the one and only best example of a card on the planet. a cobb psa 6? there are tons of them, so many it's ridiculous. wouldn't feel special enough for me.<br /><br />just my 3 cents (as barry says).<br /><br />MS<br /><br />edited to say, a green cobb psa 7 would be the exception. <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-23-2007, 07:53 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>As a follow up, I think the higher pop 8s for sale with a starting bid of $995 present a more realistic view as to where the market is these days -- and I think those cards will all sell. <br /><br />As an aside, how about the price on that perfect Green Cobb PSA 7 that went for like 34K -- double the price of a PSA 7 Green Cobb in the spring REA auction? I was willing to spend up to 22K or so on that card and thought I'd easily get it. Boy, was I wrong! Who won that card?<br /><br />Edited to add: I understand Steve's pricing system for the low pop 8s -- it's the consignor's choice to do what he wants with his cards -- but damn, I would love to see how those cards would do if the auction started at 1 cent...
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09-23-2007, 08:11 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Marc,<br /><br />I would also agree with Michael. I would much rather have a pop 1 psa 8 common than a cobb 6 or 7 from the set. If I had a cobb psa 6 or 7 I would only hold it until I could upgrade.
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09-23-2007, 08:12 AM
Posted By: <b>Rich Klein</b><p>In this case, since the auctioneer is a major player in the buisness and is even an advertiser on this board; I suspect that this is not an auction that would have gone hidden.<br /><br />The outing term I suspect runs more towards auctions placed in the wrong areas.<br /><br />Rich
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09-23-2007, 09:52 AM
Posted By: <b>Frank Evanov</b><p>A PSA 8 of a common player over a slightly lesser graded card of a baseball legend like Cobb, Matty or CY?? You have to be joking. The PSA 8 only has value to a Registry addict. Give me the HOFer any day. Would you rather have a pre-owned Mercedes, not new, but in nice condition or a brand new "mint" KIA or Yugo???<br><br>Frank
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09-23-2007, 09:59 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Frank,<br /><br />It all depends on your point of view--I look at a card that is graded 6 or less that I own and say to myself-yuck--I have to get rid of that card, I can't stand to look at it while I marvel at the 8s and 9s. If somehow I am given some 6s or less in a trade for my own records I pretend I don't even have the card.<br /><br />What percent of the cards that you own Frand are 8s and 9s?
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09-23-2007, 10:17 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- just out of curiosity, why do you find a 6 so distasteful? It's far from mangled, generally a crease free card with nice corners. Maybe not your first choice, but hardly something to feel unhappy about owning.
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09-23-2007, 10:29 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />To each is own--either centering isn't great or corners are rounded or has surface wear, loss of original gloss, scratches or some combination of these things. If I have got them I am looking to upgrade them
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09-23-2007, 10:35 AM
Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>I imagine Jim would be in the bathroom throwing up if he ever saw my collection <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Jay<br><br>The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.
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09-23-2007, 10:42 AM
Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>Another question out of curiosity for Jim - related to the one Barry just asked, and I've been wondering. Why 8? Why not have the cut off be at 7, or 9? <br /><br />I reside in the VG to EX neighborhoods in card collecting, so I can kind of tell the visual difference between cards in those ranges. I don't see cards in person that are above a 5 or 6, and from scans I honestly can't tell a 9 from a 7.<br /><br />So is there something about 8's visually that causes you to pick that as your cut off? Or, put another way, what do you see when you see a 7? A 9?<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />J
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09-23-2007, 10:52 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Joann- 8 for some reason is a natural cutoff.<br /><br />The registry collectors prefer 8 and above. The rest of the rabble collect 7 and below.<br /><br />With vintage cards 5 seems to be a cutoff. Candy cards up to a 4 are valuable but can be found. Once you hit 5 and above you are in more exclusive company.
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09-23-2007, 10:53 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Joann,<br /><br />I like 9s better than 8s and 10s better than 9s. In fact with many sets I try to do them in 9 or even 10. For sets 1959 and earlier, its just too expensive. I cannot reach my goal of 100 sets in psa 8 or better by spending my budget on 9s.<br /><br />As for 7s I will buy them. I was down to 15 cards in 1955 Topps and was sick of missing all the 8s because of price so I just bit the bullet and bought the 7s with the idea that I would upgrade to 8s later on. Sitting just behind Jeff in 12th place or so in the registry I think.<br /><br />I think I can tell difference between 7s and 8s most of the time and between 9s and 8s most of time. 10s and 9s not so sure. 7s are ok--like kissing your sister--under that Jay is right--I would throw up in his bathroom.
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09-23-2007, 11:00 AM
Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>Better not show your 4BH Kelly anymore as we don't want people to start throwing up.
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09-23-2007, 11:04 AM
Posted By: <b>Dave F</b><p>Hey Jim...not a t206 here, but this was my best conditioned pickup of the week...(maybe it is somewhat like Jay's as well, don't know)..would this really make you want to throw up? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br /><img src="http://i94.photobucket.com/albums/l111/asphaltman76/steinfeldtfront.jpg">
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09-23-2007, 11:23 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Dave,<br /><br />Ugh!<br /><br />All I can say is collect what makes you happy.
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09-23-2007, 11:44 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I think the acceptable grade really depends on the set. In my sets from the 50s, I can tell a significant difference between a 7 and 8. The difference between 8 and 9 (and 10) is often very subtle if anything at all. In sets from the 50s, I prefer 8s and up. But in E101, 102, 106, T216, etc. -- I'm happy with 4s and 5s (assuming I can even get them). And these 4s and 5s look as good to me as the 8s I have in newer sets.<br /><br />As for Jim's and Michael's desire to own a common PSA 8 in pop 1 compared to a Cobb 6, I collected along those lines for years. The thought was that condition rarity was great for two reasons: a) the cards would be more valuable due to their scarcity; and b) a T206 in PSA 8 is a damn fine looking card no matter who is featured in the slab. The appearance is how the card probably looked coming out of the pack. My habits began to change, however, and I've unloaded many of the high grade 8s and 9s I have in favor of players I love. I have no doubt that this new collecting strategy will cost me money in the long run as the Registry guys will pay top dollar for rare high grade commons (there's no greater thrill than selling a 1958 Bennie Daniels PSA 8 for $3250 on ebay) as the cards I am collecting now are either (relatively) easily found or so obscure that no one but me would want them. But in the end, I'm happier opening up my boxes of cards and finding Cobbs, Chases, Mattys, Jacksons, McGraws, Browns etc. than Rube Manning PSA 9s. As has often been said on this site: collect what makes you happy and you'll be fine.
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09-23-2007, 11:45 AM
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Better yet....lets see this really low grade N690..it's only a 5.....yuck..<br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/tmp/1190483065.JPG">
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09-23-2007, 11:54 AM
Posted By: <b>Dave F</b><p>Leon-<br />I'm disgusted. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-23-2007, 11:58 AM
Posted By: <b>Frank Evanov</b><p><I>Frank,<br /><br />It all depends on your point of view--I look at a card that is graded 6 or less that I own and say to myself-yuck--I have to get rid of that card, I can't stand to look at it while I marvel at the 8s and 9s. If somehow I am given some 6s or less in a trade for my own records I pretend I don't even have the card.<br /><br />What percent of the cards that you own Frand are 8s and 9s?</I><br /><br />Jim, I have 74 T206 HOF cards. All are PSA 5 or 6, except for 1 PSA 7 [Chance]. Trust me, "yuck" is not a word that comes to mind when I look at them.<br /><br />For post-War cards, I have mostly 8's and 9's. I was recently offered a post-War pop 1 PSA 10 of a HOF player for $10K. For that price, I could have 3 PSA 9 Mantles from the same set...I would take the Mick every time!<br><br>Frank
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09-23-2007, 12:05 PM
Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>I have always thought the Gem Mint grade was a contrivance. I would challenge anyone who thinks they could tell the difference between a 9 and a 10 on a consistent basis outside the holder.
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09-23-2007, 12:45 PM
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>one of the last population two PSA 8 T206 cards sold for less than $3k. In fact, I can find multiple examples of PSA 8 population two T-206 cards selling for less than $3k, some as recently as within the last six months.<br /><br />That these have been listed at a nearly 70% premium to the final realized price of other population two PSA 8 T-206 cards -- that reflects to me that these are not true "values". I think there is enough relevant market data to sort thorugh what has happened in the past to come up with a reasonable estimation for what low pop. high-grade T-206 commons are worth.<br /><br />Yes -- there are a few isolated incidences of higher realized prices for some of the T-206 PSA 8 commons. Most of those are isolated to a) tougher backs, b) Memory Lane auctions or c) other miscellaneous factors.<br /><br />There was even a minor leaguer T-206 PSA 8 Pop 2 common to sell in Goodwin's May auction that went for a scant $2,155-. What is the world coming to <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Marc
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09-23-2007, 12:50 PM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Damn, that JP at Memory Lane really knows how to market his auctions so much better than everyone else -- and gets prices that are up to double what the same card sold for the day before! I for one am impressed.
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09-23-2007, 03:26 PM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>frank-<br /><br />you used the term "value"...i said, "it simply would be cool owning the one and only best example of a card on the planet"...has nothing to do with value for me...<br /><br />jeff- i actually think i only have 1 or 2 PSA 8 T206's left (sorry to dissapoint you Jim), i transitioned last year to rarity, and sold all of my 8's & 9's...i have low-grade, mid-grade, and some high-grade rare backs...my favorite cards that i own: PSA 4 DRUM, PSA AUTH BL 460...<br /><br />so i for one, am NOT disgusted by low-grade cards...<br /><br />BUT, i will stick to my original statement, that i would take a PSA 8 1/1 (none higher) common over a PSA 6 cobb (excluding green cobb).<br /><br />
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09-23-2007, 03:43 PM
Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Michael,<br /> You're my buddy, but you are still crazy.... Take the Cobb and forget about the 1/1 Pop 8....Cobb is like gold, while the 1/1 might be 2,3 or 4 in a few years. Be well Brian<br /><br />PS I know you are trying to become a back collector, but you haven't quite made it yet... <br /><br /><br />PS 2 I have 30-40 PSA/SGC T206 8'S, and I will be happy to trade for Cobb 5's or 6's anyday(psa&sgc).
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09-23-2007, 04:45 PM
Posted By: <b>DMcD</b><p>"I imagine Jim would be in the bathroom throwing up if he ever saw my collection."<br />Funny stuff, Big Jaybowski! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/May07/T210_Stengel.jpg">
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09-23-2007, 06:34 PM
Posted By: <b>Brian</b><p>What a beater. Yuck! You should warn people before posting such garbage so that they might glance away.
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09-23-2007, 08:55 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Casey himself would roll over in his grave if he saw himself in that condition.
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09-23-2007, 10:48 PM
Posted By: <b>DMcD</b><p>Wouldn't want that.<br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/Sept07/T210_Stengel1.JPG">
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09-23-2007, 11:36 PM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>brian- <br /><br />regarding the T206 PSA 8 1/1 vs. a cobb 6, it is just my personal preference. there are a ton of PSA 6 cobbs out there, but having a 1/1 PSA 8 (none higher), IMO, is unique, and very cool. even if that pop goes up to 2 or 3, etc, it is still a very crisp, beautiful card to own...just my opinion. <br /><br />regarding the personal comment, i'm a bit confused, i actually gave you "props" above in a previous post...<br /><br />we'll converse via email, not on the board.<br /><br />best-<br />MS
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09-24-2007, 07:40 AM
Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Michael,<br /> I'm only picking on you.... Trying to lighten up the thread. Sorry you took it the wrong way. Talk to you soon. Be well Brian
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09-24-2007, 07:44 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>haha...<br /><br />i totally took it the wrong way...i guess we all (excluding you) really do need to lighten-up. thanks...<br /><br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />speak soon.
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09-24-2007, 09:40 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>David,<br /><br />Thts much better--please fix all before you post in the future.
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09-24-2007, 10:00 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>for whatever it's worth, a PSA 8 T206 fred burchell just sold on eBay for only $1186 (i put in a "low" feeler bid and was outbid)...<br /><br />it was 1/12, none higher...so this might be some sort of current gauge...
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09-24-2007, 10:07 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Michael,<br /><br />Thats exactly where I would expect a pop 12 to sell--don't you agree?
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09-24-2007, 03:57 PM
Posted By: <b>skepticsfan</b><p>Is this the same Steven Novella of the skeptics guide to the universe podcast?
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09-24-2007, 10:09 PM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>jim- 8's have taken a nose-dive in the last 2 years...even high pop examples were selling for $2000-2500...the real low pops were in the startosphere...<br /><br />i think $1186 is low.<br /><br />last year 7's were selling in the $1000-1300 range...
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09-25-2007, 04:16 AM
Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>Michael,<br /><br />You are the man in T206s--you are unhdoubtedly correct--12 is a really high pop though for an 8--absent HOFers is that highest pop in the set?
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09-25-2007, 06:50 AM
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>As the six superprints from the T-206 set were all HOF'ers (Cobb, Mathewson, Chance, two Chase's and an Evers) and a significant portion of the next grouping of most common 350/460 T-206 cards are also comprised of HOF'ers.<br /><br />You cannot look at populations in isolation without consideration of the distribution methodology of the T-206 set.<br /><br />12 is about the highest pop. for a common card of a single pose variation -- although there are at least a dozen or more commons with PSA 8 pops of >10.<br /><br />A Burchell PSA 8 sold in Goodwin less than 18 months ago for over $3,100 -- this latest example on Ebay was one of the softest PSA 8 prices of any common in recent memory.
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09-25-2007, 08:53 AM
Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>One of the principal points in the PSA Pop Report debates that sometimes take place was made very efficiently when Brian said:<br /><br />"Cobb is like gold, while the 1/1 might be 2,3 or 4 in a few years. . . . I have 30-40 PSA/SGC T206 8'S, and I will be happy to trade for Cobb 5's or 6's anyday(psa&sgc)."<br /><br />And, you won't see me trading my SGC 60 Cobb for high a grade/low pop common any time soon.<br /><br />Moreover, putting aside Brian's fundamental point about the potential for growing populations, again if PSA loses market share, or if cards are cracked a resubmitted, the numbers themselves do not mean what it is suggested they mean. <br /><br /> <br />
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09-28-2007, 10:18 PM
Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>On topic:<br /><br /><a href="http://tinyurl.com/2v9qsy" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/2v9qsy</a><br /><br /><br />Two Pop 2s sold at the $5K. A single Pop 3 sold at $3K. Three Pop 4s at $2K. The Pop 5s almost sold through at $1.5K. Lots of action on the higher Pops.
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09-29-2007, 05:50 AM
Posted By: <b>JinCrandell</b><p>Well--34 of 52 cards I think sold--better than the skeptics view that less than half would receive bids.<br /><br />Net net probably a bit less on the bidding than I thought so if it is a market defining event I think prices have come down a bit fron the feverish levels of a year agom Imagine collectors not willing to pay $10,000 for a pop 1 common?
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09-29-2007, 06:00 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I can imagine collectors not paying 10K for a pop 1 T206. It's just too much money for a common, even if it is the highest graded example. Maybe some semblance of restraint has finally arrived.<br /><br />As far as prices being a down a little bit I've noticed that in other areas of the market, too. The really rare and special is still very strong, but the area of the market perceived as overpriced is starting to go through a correction.<br /><br />(edited to add why is this thread so wide? It's a pain to read)
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09-29-2007, 06:53 AM
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I think the higher the cost of a high end common the thinner the market. Certainly it's mainly due to the registry where the higher prices have gone in the first place. This thread is wider because the auction link is very wide. If someone knows how to do a tiny url thing I can fix it...otherwise, that link is the reason. It stretches way over to the right of the field....regards
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09-29-2007, 07:02 AM
Posted By: <b>JinCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />I agree--about time the low-to-mid grades started going down.
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09-29-2007, 07:18 AM
Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>Sorry about the long url. I fixed it. I think the pricing stategy is right on target. The low pop stuff will sell for good money anytime. Nothing is hurt by fishing for a few weeks/months.
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09-29-2007, 07:30 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- you know you're right. Some mid-grade and low grade cards are starting to go down. I saw it in my last auction.<br /><br />Isn't it great when we all agree so easily! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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09-29-2007, 07:32 AM
Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />--Chad<br /><br />(Just funning!)
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09-29-2007, 07:53 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>exactly as i predicted...<br /><br />much action on the higher pops...and little to no action on the low pops...and the exact players i predicted as well.
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09-29-2007, 08:28 AM
Posted By: <b>Bobby Binder</b><p>Just the high pops sold...no low pops<br /><br /><br /><br />4909/27/07eBayTurner$1,495.00<br />4689/27/07eBayStovall (Portrait)$1,225.00<br />4479/27/07eBaySmith (Frank, Chicago, F. Smith On Front)$1,495.00<br />4459/27/07eBaySlagle$1,184.00<br />4439/27/07eBaySheckard (No Glove Showing)$1,225.00<br />4349/27/07eBaySeymour (Batting)$1,559.25<br />4289/27/07eBaySchmidt (Throwing)$1,227.24<br />4159/27/07eBayRossman$1,569.00<br />4049/27/07eBayRaymond$4,995.00<br />3829/27/07eBayPayne$1,581.00<br />3759/27/07eBayOverall (Portrait)$1,995.00<br />3699/27/07eBayO'Leary (Portrait)$1,377.00<br />3689/27/07eBayO'Leary (Hands On Knees)$1,147.00<br />3679/27/07eBayOldring (Fielding)$1,995.00<br />3569/27/07eBayNattress$1,225.00<br />3439/27/07eBayMoran (Pat, Chicago)$2,995.00<br />3379/27/07eBayMilligan$1,200.00<br />3359/27/07eBayMiller (Pittsburgh)$1,183.00<br />3259/27/07eBayMcIntyre (Brooklyn & Chicago)$1,236.00<br />2839/27/07eBayLennox$1,192.00<br />2749/27/07eBayLake (St. Louis, No Ball In Hand)$1,995.00<br />2579/27/07eBayKleinow (New York, With Bat)$1,225.00<br />2169/27/07eBayHoffman (Danny-S.L.)$1,647.11<br />1829/27/07eBayFromme$1,495.00<br />1739/27/07eBayFiene (Throwing)$1,531.55<br />1699/27/07eBayEwing$1,495.00<br />2859/27/07eBayLiebhardt$1,525.00<br />1569/27/07eBayDurham$1,457.12<br />1439/27/07eBayDougherty (Portrait)$1,225.00<br />1259/27/07eBayDemmitt (New York)$4,995.00<br />1249/27/07eBayDelehanty (Jim)$1,716.37<br />319/27/07eBayBell (Pitching Follow Through)$1,647.11<br />189/27/07eBayBarbeau$1,745.63<br />99/27/07eBayAmes (Portrait)$1,551.11<br />39/27/07eBayAbbott$1,330.17
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09-29-2007, 08:59 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Looks like those cards sold for well below expectations.<br /><br />In my just concluded auction the PSA 7/7.5 T206's all sold for less than I expected. Something is happening in this area.
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09-29-2007, 09:36 AM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>T206's<br /><br />In my opinion, these cards sold cheaply because most were graded over 10 years ago and looked low-end for the grade. Before I am attacked by those that own PSA cards from 10 years ago. I should qualify the statment to add, not every card graded 10 years ago is a slider but many of the high-end cards from that era were reviewed and upgraded. Therefore, it is natural overtime to see only the mid to slider cards remaining in old-holders. Also, the standard for grading T206's has changed. Many of the PSA 8's that Steve Novella represented on ebay had centering issues, mostly top to bottom. The market treated those cards like high-end 7's rather than 8's. It is a positive to see many choosing not to only buy the holder blindly.<br /><br />Check out SCP's last auction, T206 commons (graded very recently)in PSA 7's & 8's sold much stronger. Centered mid-pop (recently graded) T206's are still $2,000 give or take.<br /><br />CB<br /><br />
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09-29-2007, 09:44 AM
Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>I think many of these cards not only had centering problems but measuring problems. I hate to even look at T206 PSA auctions of 7 or above too often I see cards that seem to have questionable measurements.<br /><br />Lee
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09-29-2007, 09:57 AM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee,<br /><br />Did you give your username and password to your brother?<br /><br />CB
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09-29-2007, 10:01 AM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee or Jay,<br /><br />If you care, measuring is the least affective way to ascertain successful trim jobs (any person with scissors can cut a T206 in half). A quality trimmer is most likely looking for an oversized card to cut down to the correct 2 5/8 measurement (top to bottom).<br /><br />There are many T206's that measure less than 2 5/8 (top to bottom) and are completely original.<br /><br />CB
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09-29-2007, 10:08 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I think most of us predicted that the high pops would sell and only the occasional low pop card would sell -- which is exactly what happened. I don't think that anything that occurred really changed the landscape of the price structure of high grade T206s.
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09-29-2007, 10:56 AM
Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>Charlie, Did I mention trimming, NO. But I question the appearance of the cards measurements. Is it a good possibilty that the cards have been trimmed, yes. Are all trimmers smart enough to find oversized cards? If you can knowingly get cards past graders even if they are short, would you trim to clean up corners. If you so not think that there is some preferential treatment to some by PSA than you are really blind to what is going on. If you want to turn a blind eye to the shortness of the cards, go spend your money on them and be happy. I for one will not. You guys can defend this all you want but I know you want to get the best bang for your buck and getting a higher grade on a question card is no way of getting more money. <br /><br />As far as T206 cards being short, when did this happen I have been around these cards for 25 years and handled at least 2000 of them and never seen any size difference. Make me as ignorant. There sure seems to be more of them in highgrade holders than in low grade, now why is this?<br /><br />This is my Guiheen mini, not graded trimmed, but SML, minimum size not met.<br /><br /><img src="http://webpages.charter.net/leebehrens/GuiheenMini.jpg"><br /><br />Charlie, so you want me to give jay my name and password? It sure would be nice then the rest of you can continue to hear his rantings other than me. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Lee
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09-29-2007, 10:59 AM
Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>Jeff it did show that the market on high grade cards has fallen. As Barry stated it seems par for the course for everything but the scarce stuff.<br /><br />Lee
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09-29-2007, 11:06 AM
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>In any event, it was a market-defining event, as predicted - maybe not in the same predicted direction, but the premise was correct.
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09-29-2007, 11:11 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>All it takes is a couple of Registry guys battling it out for 10 high grade cards in a set for the world to think prices are going through the roof. Once the buying stops, card prices come back to earth.
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09-29-2007, 11:22 AM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee,<br /><br />I counted about forty non-sequiturs in your last two posts? What does preferential treatment have to do with the size of T206's? 2000 T206's in 25 years? There are over 500 cards in the set. Crandall's got 2000 T206's in PSA 8. I think you might want to check out another 2000 before you draw any meaningful size conclusions. T206's as with most pre-war baseball cards come in many sizes. You are wrong to suggest that because a card is short in the holder that it must be altered. When was the last time you saw any high-grade PSA card that you thought was not altered? Why don't you just come out and say that every high-grade PSA card is altered and then you don't have to render your opinion redundantly everytime somebody is kind enough to show some of their beautifully unaltered high-grade PSA cards. <br /><br />Respectfully,<br /><br />CB
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09-29-2007, 11:56 AM
Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>Charlie, about half of them I do not have a question with. You keep putting words in my posts, I have written that I said they were trimmed. My conclusion is that many of them appear to be short thus I in my mind I say I say "Why are these short and why are so many high grade PSA T206's short?", I want nothing to do them those cards. Gee Charlie even PRO has some cards that are not altered.<br /><br />Just consider my knowledge and expertise no where in your class in your eyes. I don't claim to be the creme de la creme of T206's but I have been around long enough to have clue about what to shy away from. Your cute little comments about my 2000 cards in 25 years, just is another class statement that ever one loves on the board. I have handled that many because I need to turn these cards to be able to buy more. Gee isn't that what you do.<br /><br />You can have all your high grade PSA cards and be happy with them that is your choice I choice to have nothing to do with them even if I could afford them.<br /><br />Why bring Jim Crandall into this he has nothing to do with you. I am sure if I was able to get together with Jim he would have no problem with showing me his collection and I would have no problem questioning and of them if I feel they warrant it. <br /><br />Lee<br /><br />
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09-29-2007, 12:26 PM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee,<br /><br />I have no problem with you personally. But your flippant comments regarding most/all high-grade cards that you see have to be altered is tired. <br /><br />You seem to think this is a class thing? If it is then have an equal amount of respect for high-grade cards as you would like for off to mid-grade. <br /><br />I am not a high-grade collector but I see the value and importance and beauty of both high and mid/off grade cards.<br /><br />You can be passionate about what you collect without being dispassionate for what others collect.<br /><br />Respectfully,<br /><br />CB<br /><br />
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09-29-2007, 12:31 PM
Posted By: <b>Sean BH</b><p>Here is what I read from Lee:<br />"Charlie, about half of them I do not have a question with"<br /><br />Charlie:<br />"...your flippant comments regarding most/all high-grade cards that you see have to be altered is tired." <br /><br />I think Lee didn't say most/all. <br /><br /><br /><br />
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09-29-2007, 12:58 PM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Sean,<br /><br />Fair point. I guess I was not referring to that post. But rather to the reactions from the Behrens boys over the last couple of years every time somebody posts a high-grade card.<br /><br />Do a search on "Marshall Fogel". Read the responses every time he was kind enough to display some of his collection.<br /><br />Once again nothing personal, I wish Jay the best and enjoyed sparring with him but I do think high-grade cards get an unfair shake on this board. <br /><br />CB
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09-29-2007, 01:08 PM
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>In your best professional estimation what percentage of high end PSA (8 and above) pre-war cards are in holders that have issues of being altered?
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09-29-2007, 01:15 PM
Posted By: <b>Sean BH</b><p>I understand that there are size differences in all T206 cards, but to me it's a bit interesting that far more high grade (7 and above) are on the shorter side. <br /><br />Maybe they're trimmed? Maybe since they're a bit shorter they were protected by the larger cards in the stack/collection?<br /><br />**Edited to add - I think high grade cards do get an unfair shake on this board. Partially I guess since there values are so much higher they are under greater scrutiny (like many things in the world that carry a premium).<br /><br />Sean Bh
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09-29-2007, 02:27 PM
Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>Charlie,<br /><br />Nice to see you blow my comments out of proportion, you do realize that it has been a few years since I even chimed in the subject and I still feel the same way now as I did than, because I have seen no evidence to sway my thoughts on the matter. Please read the whole post when replying, your responses reflect what you thought I wrote and not what was written, as Sean has pointed out.<br /><br />I always love when you get responses such as your in situations that bring it to light far beyond what it should get. The people will make decisions for themselves. You make Jay and I out to be they great influenatial force. If that's the way you feel great, but each person makes up his/her's own mind.<br /><br /><br />I would like to hear your answer to Leon's question, also.
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09-29-2007, 04:25 PM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Leon,<br /><br />About twice as many low-mid garde cards have been altered vs high grade. <br /><br />Actually the keen eyes of Mike Baker reviewed all of my cards and thus none of mine have been altered.<br /><br />In all seriousness, I think Charlie's comments are ridiculous--noone is not bidding on these cards because they think they are high end 7s or trimmed. My last big sale of PSA 8s was over $100,000 in PSA 8 cards and I sold them sight unseen.
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09-29-2007, 04:50 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- regarding your comment that more low and mid-grade cards have been altered than high grade, where did you get your statistics?
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09-29-2007, 04:59 PM
Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p><<My last big sale of PSA 8s was over $100,000 in PSA 8 cards and I sold them sight unseen.>><br /><br />Pre-war? Because I'd agree with you that PSA 8 1960's Topps or later don't need to be seen to be confirmed as untrimmed. Pre-war on the other hand would be a risky venture unseen. <br />
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09-29-2007, 05:18 PM
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Barry-<br />Probably the same source that predicted that the sale of those high-grade cards would be epic.
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09-29-2007, 05:20 PM
Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee,<br /><br />Once again not trying to get you fired up, just taking the other side of your "1/2 of all high-grade cards are altered" comment. In fact, that is very optimistic of you, I thought you thought they were all bad.<br /><br />Leon,<br /><br />I cannot say how many are trimmed in the holder. I can say that there have been a few large finds of high-grade t206's, so it is probably not as uncommon as people think to see original 8's. The last SCP auction was a great example of that. The T206's were from a find in "New York". Most were found over-sized, with beveled edges and believe it or not they had sharp corners.<br /><br />Jim,<br /><br />I have heard your collection is awesome. My point was more to the fact, that overtime alot of the high-grade examples graded in the 1990's made there way into higher holders, GAI 8.5's or SGC 92's. A collection that has sat for 10 years could have many high-end examples. And I agree Mike Baker has an amazing eye and my utmost respect.<br /><br />CB<br /><br />
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09-30-2007, 06:07 AM
Posted By: <b>JinCrandell</b><p>I meant to say I sold over $100,000 worth of T206 psa 8s sight unseen.<br /><br /><br /><br />
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09-30-2007, 06:52 AM
Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Wow.<br /><br />I would say that anyone who will pay $100,000 sight unseen for ANYTHING that you can't live in, either A) has a LOT of money, or B) has a screw loose. I can't fathom having enough cash that I would lay out six figures without knowing what I'm getting, regardless of WHO gave it a seal of approval.<br /><br />I'm all for high-grade collecting, but I can't help but be judgemental against someone who would throw that much money around in such an irresponsible way.<br /><br />That said, good for you, Jim - I'm glad you got to be the beneficiary.<br /><br />-Al
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09-30-2007, 07:29 AM
Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>I don't understand this.<br /><br />It's my impression that some of the cards sold, and some did not.<br /><br />Did the market get "defined" or "redefined"? And if so, how?<br /><br />
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09-30-2007, 07:47 AM
Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>Like Jim I am of the opinion that card alteration is not limited to high end cards. There is just as much incentive, or at least enough incentive, to turn a 2 into a 4 or 5, or a 3 into a 5 or 6, as there is to turn a 6 or 7 into an 8.
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09-30-2007, 07:52 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Frank, Steve Novella put a bunch of high end T206s out on ebay at ridiculously high prices in an attempt to get some of the top Registry guys to bite; just a couple sold. The more reasonably priced cards were sold.
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09-30-2007, 08:16 AM
Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>IMO, the market gets defined every week with the slew of card sales through auction houses, ebay and direct sales. These T206s were really no different.
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09-30-2007, 08:23 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>And I am finding that sale prices are based almost entirely on who is bidding. That is why it's not unusual to see price fluctuations from one auction to another.
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09-30-2007, 09:38 AM
Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />Ridiculous? I disagree--these are pop 1 psa 8s in the most popular prewar set that exists. Hopefully the seller can hold out--if they remain pop 1s or 2s price in my opinion can only go higher.
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09-30-2007, 10:47 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>jim, i also love PSA 8's, but the simple fact is that none of the big set reg guys bit at the 1/1- 8's priced at $10,000 (Don L, Don S., Scott I.)...but as i expected, they went after some of the 1/2 & 1/3 pieces they needed at $3K & $5K...<br /><br />the bottomline is 8's are soft now...this "big event" just confirms that for me. i was buying PSA 8's 2 years ago at $2500-3500...now those same cards are in the $1200-1800 range.<br /><br />for those out there who buy as an investment, the lessen is buy low, sell high, i guess.
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09-30-2007, 11:45 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Well, they were ridiculous prices for the reasons Michael said: the high registry guys ignored them. Jim, as you know, for the few guys we're talking about price is usually no object for a card they want. That they passed on these cards due to the out of this universe prices does speak for itself.
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09-30-2007, 12:24 PM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>That's why I haven't bought into the notion that PSA 8 material can only go up.<br /><br />Sure, there is always a demand for quality. But in the case of set registry cards, the prices realized are often way out of proportion to their real value. If two guys want to fight it out head to head and set a world's record for a pop 1 or 2, that is an extremely unreliable way to gauge the market.
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09-30-2007, 12:34 PM
Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>Thank you Jeff, Barry, Jim and all...<br /><br />I've got it, I think. Novella's auctions define the market as one that has only a handful of folks willing to pay big bucks for PSA 8 T206s, and that the market price for such high grade cards is below where most of these cards were priced. It also shows that there are more PSA 8 T206s out there than there are folks willing to pay 10k for them, I'd think.<br /><br />The auctions (since there were several, it wasn't just a sale of one card) were an opportunity to see how many buyers were out there for that kind of money. And I see that that DOES define where the market is currently for these cards.<br /><br />Thank you, guys.
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09-30-2007, 12:48 PM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I'd love to see what would happen if these cards were put out without the artificial reserve; a few might actually sell at those prices in the heat of a real auction. At least we would know the true value of low pop, high grade T206 commons.
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09-30-2007, 12:54 PM
Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>...but I will restate that no one is saying lower grade cards don't get altered. But there is no incentive to trim a card with a wrinkle because it will still have the wrinkls. A T206 card with sharp corners and a wrinkle is still a 3. Similarly, with a 3 or 4 with rounded corners and a wrinkle, pressing the wrinkle out is still going to keep you at 3 or 4 depending on the corner rounding. <br /><br />However, you can take a 4, 5, 6 or 7 with rounded corners and no creases and make that baby an 8 if you can microtrim it well enough.<br /><br />It is not that there is no incentive to alter lower grade cards, or that it doesn't happen -- the point is that you can jump many grades (FROM 4 TO 8!) if you know how to artfully trim a card with rounded corners and make the corners sharp. That is a huge jump with just one kind of alteration that we all know takes place.<br /><br />Finally, if you include in your definition of "altered" removing glue and gunk from the back of cards by soaking, or erasing pencil marks with art erasers, then yes, there are a TON of low grade altered cards in the market. But what most of us mean we say that PSA 8 pre-war cards have a higher risk factor, we are saying that there may have been microtrimming done -- no one is microtrimming creased 3's. Moreover, PSA and SGC encapsulate the soaked and erased cards, but they are not supposed to encapsulate the trimmed ones.
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10-01-2007, 07:20 PM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>looks like steve is being smarter this week and starting his HOF PSA 7's at faily resonable starting bids...should be some nice action on these cards.
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10-11-2007, 08:59 PM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Anyone notice how soft the prices were for Steve Novella's T206 PSA 7 auctions tonight? Many were bought at discount prices by other dealers just for resale purposes.
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10-11-2007, 09:31 PM
Posted By: <b>Eric Brehm</b><p>The prices realized weren't too bad. But maybe there were too many cards turned loose on the market at once. There are people who can afford $1,000+ high grade T206 HOFers but maybe they have a limit on how many they can buy at a time. I did notice also that some of the buyers were dealers so we may see some of these back on the market shortly.
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10-11-2007, 10:13 PM
Posted By: <b>Wesley</b><p>Prices on the PSA 7 HOFers were very soft. Many were sold to dealers so we will see some of those cards again soon.<br /><br />
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10-12-2007, 05:08 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The PSA 7 T206's in my last auction were likewise soft. Looks like a trend, not an aberration.
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10-12-2007, 06:11 AM
Posted By: <b>Eric Brehm</b><p>All of the cards in the auction went for more than SMR value but less than double SMR; that is about what T206's have been going for lately. About 2/3 of the cards were in my opinion a bit weak for the grade (centering, etc.). So I don't think the results were particularly 'soft'. We didn't see any huge battles over any particular cards, but as I said before maybe that is partly because so many cards of the same type hit the market at the same time, giving buyers lots of choices. Barry your last auction had one PSA 7 T206 in it, plus a couple of GAI 7's; that probably isn't enough data to establish a 'trend'. I don't think the sky is falling.
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10-12-2007, 06:24 AM
Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>T cards appear to be softening -<br /><br />but I don't see E cards softening... actually it seems they are doing quite the opposite.<br /><br /><br /><br />The big name players seem to be holding up and moving forward as well.<br /><br /><br /><br />I don't think the hobby / card values are softening... just certain cards moving in and out of favor.<br /><br /><br />At this point... I think I would prefer a softening (as I am pretty much done selling and will look to start buying again)... but I am not going to hold my breath.<br /><br /><br /><br />(This is just my general feeling as a hobby participant - I have no hard numbers to back it up)
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10-12-2007, 06:58 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Some of the stars went for over 20 percent less than what they have previously.<br /><br />And the fact that so many were purchased by dealers really does underscore the lack of collector interest in my mind.
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10-12-2007, 07:33 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>i have an explaination for these "soft" prices...<br /><br />Don Spence & Michael Wachs (Little Fella) were clawing and battling to complete their sets in as many PSA 7's (or higher) that they could obtain, over the last 2 years or so, and the prices of 7's were going crazy, commons especially...they both are near completion (Michael has a second set that he is almost done with as well)...so the prices have chilled...<br /><br />Don L. & Scott I. do NOT collect 7's...only 8's & higher...so they usually are not a factor at that level.<br /><br />my 2 cents.<br /><br />now that i'm not collecting 7's anymore, it's just our friend Jeff L. who is the big dawg chasing 7's <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14> hi jeff!
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10-12-2007, 07:49 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Eric- I didn't intend to use the term "soft" to mean the sky was falling.<br /><br />It was just a simple observation that the 7's are not as strong as they might have been say a year ago. Michael pointed out a plausible explanation for it.<br /><br />I know I had a small sample but when you are running an auction and looking at bids from the inside out, you recognize which lots are being fought over and which ones don't seem to be getting as much attention as anticpated.
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10-12-2007, 07:59 AM
Posted By: <b>Eric Brehm</b><p>Barry -- fair enough. I'm sure with all your experience in the hobby you have a good feel for what is going on.<br /><br />The only trend I see is that T206's are generally selling for somewhat less this year than they did last year. Maybe that has something to do with certain well-heeled individuals completing their sets, I don't know. About a year ago some of the nicer cards were selling for double or even triple book; SMR subsequently made an upward adjustment in their estimates and now the range seems to be more between book and double book. Last night's auction results fell into that range and that is what I would expect to see in the near future. There will always be plenty of exceptions above or below that depending on who is involved, the quality within grade of the particular cards for sale, etc.<br /><br />By the way Scott Ireland did buy three of the PSA 7's last night, so I guess he was a factor in those cases.
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10-12-2007, 08:20 AM
Posted By: <b>Joe D.</b><p>I like it!<br /><br />Does that mean we can refer to Jeff as 'Big Dawg' when we get together?<br /><br /><br />"Pass the dinner rolls please, Big Dawg."<br /><br /><br /><br />We are gonna need a name for Barry. Maybe "Consigliere".
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10-12-2007, 09:06 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>my new name for barry is:<br /><br />"the brooklyn crusher" <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />p.s. Eric-<br /><br />let me rephrase my statement...<br /><br />scott ireland USUALLY adds 8's & 9's to his set, i guess if he sees a 7 that will fill a hole in the meantime, then he'll get it...
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10-12-2007, 09:40 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Michael- am I nicknamed the crusher because of my massive size, or because I crush people's spirits? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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10-12-2007, 11:26 AM
Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>barry- it's kinda like when you meet a huge 400 pound guy, who's nickname is "tiny"...<br /><br />but the opposite! <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>
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10-12-2007, 11:45 AM
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Clearly Barry has only one of two choices for a nickname:<br /><br />1) T-bone (alas, I think it may be taken)<br />2) Koko
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10-12-2007, 11:51 AM
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Or it's like calling a seven-footer "shorty"! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />And of course, we're in Seinfeld mode. I think after 200+ posts this thread has lost its steam (or it's making me thirsty).
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10-12-2007, 12:45 PM
Posted By: <b>Steve Murray</b><p>Or, has it succumbed to shrinkage.