PSA Pop Report

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Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>i know many of you here bash PSA and often criticize the pop reports...BUT, i try to use these numbers as a reference tool, obviously this does not represent the total population of a card, but gives you a good indication as to it's relative scarcity. <br /><br />many people go to the pop report when considering buying a graded card, but do many of you use it as such a reference tool as well, making comparisions and drawing conclusions on rarity?<br /><br />for example:<br /><br />i was counting how many cards PSA has graded less than 70 of...and i was surprised it is such a very small list...<br /><br />cobb/cobb 6<br />doyle, nat'l 9<br />wagner 28<br />plank 45<br />o'hara 61<br />demmitt 64<br />magie 68<br />arch persons (SL) 68<br /><br />* most SLers have a pop in the 75-85 range.<br />* most commons are in the 100-150 range<br />* most HOFers are in the hundreds... <br /><br />i think it is important to see the difference between the red & green cobbs:<br /><br />green 362<br />red 889<br /><br />here it becomes extrememly clear why there is such a premium for the green cobb.<br /><br />some tuffer commons:<br /><br />ganley 75<br />shulte, front view 77<br />lungren, KC 78<br />doc adkins 79<br />regular doyle 80<br />ames, hands at chest 81

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Posted By: <b>Dave</b><p>The POP reports have always been terrific. That is until PSA started labeling the backs on the T206 inserts. Since then, none of the cards being graded have been added to the POP reports...at least that's my understanding as of now.

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Posted By: <b>Jay</b><p>They are quite helpful for reference. My only knock on them is that some of the names are spelled wrong:<br /><br />Zach Wheat: 13 cards<br />Zack Wheat: 225 cards<br /><br />Clearly the Zach Wheat card is much more scarce.<br /><br />Jay

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Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>I can vouch for one PSA graded T206 Cobb/Cobb that no longer exists in its holder since I broke it out. WIll post photos later today or tomorrow. I saved the broke slab. That brings the total in PSA holder to 5.<br />JimB

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Posted By: <b>Mike</b><p>Why is there not a population report for N162 Goodwins? E-Mailed PSA but got no response.

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Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Its all about the pop. Its why commons outsell HOFers.<br />Its far and away the leading determinent of value for graded cards 1887-1970.<br /><br />Pops have also retained their relationship in most sets and the lowest pop cards a year ago are the lowest pop today.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Michael- those numbers seem extremely high. 9 Doyles and 68 Magies? They really graded that many? Do you think 9 Doyles even exist? How many of these do you think are resubmissions?

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Posted By: <b>Joe Pelaez</b><p>You've done your homework. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>barry-<br /><br />umm, not sure...i am just going by their numbers

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Posted By: <b>Judge Dred (Fred)</b><p>These are neat stats but I wonder how many of these stats have been manipulated by resubmissions? <br /><br />Any guesses on what might be the margin of error? <br /><br />These are neat stats to look at. I like the difference between the red and green Cobbs. Thanks for sharing. It's an interesting way to look at the overall population of these cards.

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Posted By: <b>Joe Pelaez</b><p>How many may be mistakes? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

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Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>At the Reading Show, 2 hobby veterans and I were comparing notes on the T206 Joe Doyle error card.<br />And, between the 3 of us we accounted for only 10 individual owners of this card.<br /><br />And, at least two of them, we know, have not been Graded.....so, this POP report can be mis-leading,<br /> due to re-submittals.<br /><br />Of course, we know at least one "fake" card was graded....OOPS, sorry guys, that was graded by SGC.<br /><br />TED Z

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Posted By: <b>Joe Tocco</b><p>I've let me subscription lapse so I can't tell you specifically, but look under "misc" or "other" or something like that for N162. Since it's a multi-sport set, it's not listed under Baseball.<br /><br />Joe

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Posted By: <b>Joe Pelaez</b><p>The names of the two veterans, and if any of you have handled both a real Doyle, and doctored Doyle?

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Posted By: <b>Scot Reader</b><p><br />I agree that population reports cannot tell you much about absolute scarcity due to resubmits and the vast majority of cards that are ungraded or graded by another service. They can, however, tell you something about RELATIVE scarcity of cards within a set. But even there you have to price weight each subject before making comparisons since given the time and expense of grading there is more incentive to submit higher priced items than lower priced items--and therefore higher priced subjects are overrepresented in population reports.<br /><br />One way to determine how overrepresented (or underrepresented) a subject is in a population report is to look at the average condition of graded examples of the subject. For example, the mean grade for T206 Honus Wagner examples in the PSA population report is 2.14, whereas the mean grade for T206 Nick Maddox examples is 4.52. Obviously this is not because the average condition of Maddox examples in the world is VG-EX+; it is because there is not sufficient price incentive for most people to send their P-F copies of Maddox to PSA whereas there is abundant price incentive for anyone who has an authentic Wagner to send it in for grading. Once population data are weighted for price, which can be done either by reference to the average condition of graded examples, book prices, or a combination of the two, then a reasonably good picture of relative scarcity emerges.

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Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>....I just rely on Scot Reader's excellent tome to determine relative scarcity. He's already solved for all of the variables I care about.

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Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>I remember a few years back the pop report listed a high-grade Cobb back (PSA 6 or 7). I knew of all the known copies and knew that such a high-grade example did not exist. Then one day I saw it listed on ebay. It was listed as a red Cobb portrait. The flip said Ty Cobb brand back, but the seller provided front and back scans which showed it was a Sweet Cap back. I e-mailed the link to the customer service person for the registry at PSA and never heard back and nothing changed in the count. I don't know if anything has happened since then since I have not checked in years. But that could be a second one that is counted in their pop report that actually is not a Ty Cobb back. Maybe the customer service person did not realize what an important card this was and the existence of a nm example would be phenomenal hobby news. Who knows. <br /><br />Here is the one I cracked a couple of weeks ago.<br /><br /><img src="http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/4181/t206cobbcobbpsacasest0.jpg"><br />[url=<img src="http://imageshack.us][img=<a href="http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/4181/t206cobbcobbpsacasest0.jpg">][/url" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/4181/t206cobbcobbpsacasest0.jpg">][/url</a>]<br /><br />Don't know what is wrong with the image. I have linked with Imageshack a hundred times before.<br />

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Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>cossetta rrobbins in PSA's set reg dept, is awesome, i have spoken to her on several occassions and she has helped rectify a few issues for me, namely the whole "T206 Harris" pop issue. i was very tuff on them (Joe included) to merge the pop pages and dissolve the Harris cards into the main T206 page, she was a very intregal part of that project. <br /><br />so, if there are any cert # or pop problems, she can assist, as long as it is brought to her attention.<br /><br />MS

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Posted By: <b>Anthony</b><p>Jim-<br /> It now shows (1) PSA 6, (2) PSA 3-4's, and (3) PSA 1-2's.

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Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I guess it's good to have some experience using the pop report, as you have to view the actual numbers combined with a little common sense. If a number looks extreme, there is probably an explanation for it beyond the simple head count.

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Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>i hear what everyone is saying...i totally agree with Scot, there are several factors that also need to considered, especially weight of price...<br /><br />so until that is somehow figured into the pops, as i stated above, for now, the pop reports are a good indicator for RELATIVE scarcity, not absolute, of course.

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Posted By: <b>JimB</b><p>Michael,<br />I am not sure if it was Cossetta Robbins that was there at the time. It was a number of years ago. I have also had positive experiences with her.<br />Jim

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Posted By: <b>Mike</b><p>A few years ago, I had about three different cards graded, which should have shown up in the pop report as the only one graded in that grade, for that card. Thye never showed up on the pop report. After a 6 or 7 months, i had a PSA authorized dealer, ask PSA to correct it, and show that these cards in fact should be reflected on the pop reports. My fear was that if I did ever go to sell them, and they were not reflected on the report, someone might think there was something funky going on. It took a while, and PSA did add them to the report. They have also mislabled a few cards, and added them to the report. But after I asked them to correct the card labels, they corrected the report. So to sum it up, the report is not perfect, but like the price guides, the pop report should be used as a guide only.

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Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>you wrote:<br />"Once population data are weighted for price, which can be done either by reference to the average condition of graded examples, book prices, or a combination of the two, then a reasonably good picture of relative scarcity emerges"<br /><br />Have you already gone through this exercise? Can you share some calculations? While it is all hypotheticals, I would be interested to know what sort of weightings you have used, or would use to analyze these pop reports....<br /><br />Apologies for my ignorance if you have already posted this in the past.<br />Thanks,<br />Jason

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Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>...scarcity within T206, I was referring to Scot Reader's analysis here:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.t206museum.com/shop/InsideT2063d.pdf" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.t206museum.com/shop/InsideT2063d.pdf</a><br /><br />It is a must read for every collector of T206 cards.<br /><br /><br /><br />