If the bottom fell out... [Archive] - Net54baseball.com Forums

Archive

01-11-2007, 02:03 AM

Posted By: DylanHow many collectors/dealers would actually prefer the baseball collectables and card market to fall? If it did fall would you prefer a small drop or a black tuesday? I suppose there are those collectors that have tens of thousands invested and would just assume the market continue sky rocketing. But im beginning to realize that if such a fervent rate continued i could eventually be priced out of many of the cards i want to someday own. But im a fairly new collector and ld like to hear what others have to say. What direction would be ideal for your collecting needs?

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:11 AM

Posted By: John SIf the past thirty years is any indication, values will occasionally plateau but not drop. I have mixed feelings regarding your question. A significant proportion of my expendable income is spent on collectibles. If values dropped (Black Tuesday style) I would be definitely lose a lot on paper. However, I would collect as before (probably a lot more) because I enjoy the hobby and the history. I believe that because so many others share my latter sentiments that the values will never truly crash.

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:22 AM

Posted By: DylanI also find plataeus likely but a large drop dependent on something along the lines of a global economic catosrophe. I personally wouldnt mind seeing a break from the upscale surge. A plateau for a few years would give me a chance to put together a real collection. Ive heard people say that prices will fixate soon but i havent seen the climb stop yet...

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:22 AM

Posted By: DaveI don't spend thousands of dollars on any one card, but even dropping $25-$250 on a card I'd really rather the market not ever totally crash. I could care less if prices stayed status quo...I'm not in it for investment purposes but don't want the money I've spent to be worth nil on the cards either...in other words if push came to shove...jobloss, family emergency or what not...I'd hope I could at least somewhat get back the money I've put into cards if need be.

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:48 AM

Posted By: Dan KravitzIf guys need money, the first cards to sell is the stuff on the bottom. Common or HOFers from common sets will be so common that they could lose all value, but there will always be a strong market for super rare or scarce HOFers. Most guys who own these super cards will not sell in any market and have enough money to wait out the storm. It's not hard to imagine a shift in mortgage rates or job layoffs to get the ball rolling. Imagine having a box of cardboard or paying your mortgage. Not hard to see where a slight shift in the economy could ruin your collection. However, there will always be someone waiting for the disaster to buy up rare or scarce cards. Reality is that there will be a downturn. Can not keep going up. Just can't! However, I would bet that if you can weather the storm, the next uptick will be higher than we have ever seen. Prices in our lifetime could be 5x-10x where they are today. Hold tight... If you can.

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:26 AM

Posted By: Frank WakefieldI'd love it. I think it would be great for the hobby. I seldom sell a card. Once in a while, not very often. With a real crash I could forgo selling for a while. A crash would be no problem for me in that regard. I would still buy cards. I collect them for their intrinsic connection to the game, not because of some value in a catalog or population report. In that regard, a crash would help my collecting. I could buy more cards with the same amount of money. This board would still be active, so I'd be happy about that. A crash wouldn't kill off The Vintage Baseball Card Forum. This is a hobby, not an investment. Invest in a home, an education for yourself or a kid, a mutual fund or two, real estate. Or futures or commodities. This is no place for a sensible investor. A crash might chase a few of those folks out, and that would be better for the hobby. Plus, a demonstration of volatility would deter other "investors" from entering our card market. And I'd think that a good crash would cool down the slabbing frenzy. The only way I see a downside to me if there were to be a crash would be if some financial disaster struck me necessitating sale of my cards. I don't see that happening. If I die on the heels of a crash, that might be unfortunate for my heirs, IF they were to sell off cards at that time. I think they'd hold cards a while, they don't really know much about them, but they perceive the cards have some value. So bring on a crash, please sir. A good 'un!!!! Frank.

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:33 AM

Posted By: JayScarce cards come out when the market is strong. If the market crashed better material would dry up and collecting would become alot more difficult.

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:38 AM

Posted By: Al C.risafulliFrankly, I wouldn't care either way. I guess if the market fell apart I'd be able to afford cards I can't afford now. At the same time, the few bigger-dollar cards I own would decrease in value as well. Either way, I would still collect the same stuff I collect now. -Al

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:42 AM

Posted By: Dan KravitzFrank - If you hope there is a crash, then you are somewhat hoping for a crash in other markets. They are linked in that people buy cards when they have extra money. If the economy is bad and people are not buying (or a downturn), that means we are in more trouble than just owning worthless cardboard. I don't think anyone should hope for a crash, but if it comes, who of us is really ready?

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:46 AM

Posted By: Frank WakefieldGuys, I intended to close with the idea that I did not desire a crash from which we did not recover. A crash, yes. But then the market slowly creeps back up. And that would be good for IRA and deferred comp investing, too. Same amount comes out of my check, but it buys more... Let me think about that. Yes, I'm for that, too, as long as we recover.

Archive

01-11-2007, 06:01 AM

Posted By: bruce dorskind Dylan Let's look at a worse case scenario. 1. There is another stock market crash 2. The US suffers another major terrorist attack 3. There is a major grading scandal at PSA 4. There is a baseball strike We doubt that even the combination of these four events would have a significant impact on high end pre war baseball cards. The market for rare baseball cards is very thin. Furthermore, people don't collect baseball cards generally. They collect specific sets, or specific players or teams and/or cards from a certain era. The prices for the most expensive items (those over $5000_ are a function of a very limited supply and demand. The hobby's biggest spenders have very different collecting interests. Their budgets are more likely to be based on their overall wealth rather than on current income. The most important factor in determining price is who is bidding. Once the top two collectors have the item, the prices tend to drop. On those items priced between $500 and $5000, the market is generally limited to 20 or less people with specific collecting goals. While some would be affected by the "perfect storm," the market is so thin, and the collectors' interest so diverse, that it is difficult to imagine how the economy would affect pricing. Let us assume that all items between $25 and $500 are "E Bay" items. There you might see some drop (say 20%) on the number of bidders. However, we doubt that the whole market would collapse, or that you would see a noticeable drop in card prices. With baseball cards, it has been our experience (over the past 30 years), that the high end of the market rarely drops. Price is a function of who is in and who is out of the hobby as well as the so called “buzz factor. “ . If it turns out that we are completely wrong, then what you would see is that sellers would step back, and wait for the market to recover. Good luck and let's hope that the hobby continues to attract new collectors and new investors and the hobby prices continue to rise Bruce Dorskind America's Toughest Want List

Archive

01-11-2007, 06:02 AM

Posted By: john/z28jd Right now or anytime soon i couldnt imagine card prices just plummeting because theres too many people like myself that would spend just as much as they do now but hope to get more cards. Then we would just be competing against each other and driving the price back up.I think it would also lead to more people starting to collect the older cards who normally couldnt afford to spend alot.They might be able to buy a few cards before prices went back up and that could get them hooked on the cards and they buy more,or just take a certain percentage of cards off the market making them harder to find in the process. I think the number of page views and unique visitors to this site speaks highly of how strong the vintage market is and there seems to be alot more younger collectors around now than before to keep it that way

Archive

01-11-2007, 06:16 AM

Posted By: DaveWhile many of the more rare cards may continue to rise....I don't think I see that for T206's and other commonly found vintage cards. I don't ever foresee a day where T206 PSA 1 commons that go for $20-$25 now going for $100...and a PSA 4 Addie Joss that goes for $175 now going for $400....maybe i'm naive..but I still believe there is too many T206's for that kind of jump to ever take place..no matter what the rest of vintage cards do.

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:34 AM

Posted By: DylanMostly posted this as food for thought. I dont envision anytype of crash ever affecting the rarities in the hobby. price change is cyclical. I would like to see a slow down, do some purchasing, and inevitably the market will pick up again and in all likelihood soar to new heights. However as we stand now no slow down in sight. And like Bruce said even if a plethora of really bad things occured the valuable/rare cards are recession proof, it would take a nuclear holocaust for fine art and rare baseball collectibles to be rendered valueless.

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:34 AM

Posted By: barrysloateWhile many collectors have said they wouldn't mind seeing the market collapse so that they could buy cards on the cheap, it would probably be a bad thing if the bottom fell out. It would mean something really awful is happening in the world, and it would cast a feeling of gloom on the hobby. Best thing might be a little slowdown, so there would be less panic buying and less volatility. A quieter and calmer market might actually be a more relaxing one.

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:43 AM

Posted By: Joe JonesI have recently started dreaming about baseball cards! I guess I have a problem <img src="/images/sad.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> Last night I went back in time (Early 70's?) and was able to buy all sorts of cards. The funny thing is that I only ended up buying cards that are fairly easy to find today and that do not cost much today. I didnt go after a T206 Wagner, I just wanted to complete a few sets I am working on. What I am getting at is, even if the market dropped on cards, I would still be collecting. I love working on sets, so maybe it would be easier to finish them if the market dropped a little? On the other hand, it is nice to find rare cards and turn them for a profit. I do it when I can to fund other purchases. If the market dropps out, I will still be able to find rare cards, but this time I would just have to trade them for cards I need instead of selling them.

Archive

01-11-2007, 08:00 AM

Posted By: T EAs stated several times on this thread, it would take a MAJOR global disaster, or more likely, a series of global disasters with long-term implications, to crash this market. Great Depression stuff. Real long term, I do wonder how much Americana will be valued in, say, 100 years. Will anyone really give a hoot in the 22nd century that there are only x number of PSA 8 Ty Cobb green portrait t206 cards? I doubt it, but I will likely be long gone from this orb by then.

Archive

01-11-2007, 08:14 AM

Posted By: Jason Lregarding how the high end market works, and the importance of placing these expenditures within the context of people's lives. My first thought was that I would love for the market to tank so that I could buy lots more of the stuff that I can't get now (you know, dollar-cost averaging, sort of)...but then my next thought was to realize that whatever larger set of circumstances that caused a mega-drop in the collectables world would likely be a large enough economic force to ensare me and my spending capabilities...so it's a push... For the small-time collector like myself and others like me, let's just hope for a mild global political climate, normal weather patterns, and a stable-growth economic environment for the next 40 years (all to ensure that everyone does well and continues collecting), combined with a series of major ethical and financial blow-ups at the larger auction and grading houses that flushes out the bad seeds that may be out there, and subsequently causes people to re-think what is important in the hobby-end of the community. That last part is complete drivel, and I know it would cause more problems than help, and I meant no offense to anyone here, but it was just a fun little infantile fantasy to simply type it, so thank you! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-11-2007, 08:59 AM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisI don't know if anyone raised this factor ? But, if interest rates climbed up to double digits it would affect the economy more than anything else. And, it would definitely take down all the collectibles markets and especially BB card values. Don't take my word for this.....just look at recent history for this. In the late '70s and early 1980's all the collectibles markets were affected. Interest rates climbed to 20 % and everyone was putting all their money into bank CD's. And, very few were taking out Equity loans to have $$$$ for "investing" in collectibles. Make no mistake about it.....our BB card values are staying HIGH.....due to LOW interest rates. T-Rex TED

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:01 AM

Posted By: JimBIt is funny how everybody who said they would like the market to tank don't seem to consider that they may have less to spend on cards as well at a time when economic conditions are such that the baseball card market tanks. If it tanks, it would be precisely because people like us do not have the money to spend on cards. JimB

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:09 AM

Posted By: Jason LI tried to express that thought above, albeit probably not in a terribly eloquent fashion...of course, exactly right...rising tide lifts all boats, but don't forget what happens at low tide

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:13 AM

Posted By: MikeWhat is the definition of "bottom falling out"? 25% drop? 50% drop? etc. etc. They become worthless? I am a collector, and always have been I have thousands of cards, and I believe I have only sold 4 in the last 20 years. I sold one card a year ago, and was able to pay my taxes, and take my wife to hawaii. So I am not opposed to the high heights that some cards have attained in the last 15 years. But to be brutally honest, I would not mind seeing a drop in prices. It would make my hobby ambitions easier to attain. And it might also allow some younger people, or less fortunate folks to get involved in the hobby. My 22 year old son, only sees this hobby, as something adults do. . Which is kind of sad. Again, being a collector only, I wouldn't mind seeing a drop in prices. maybe 25%. Many comments surround causes, as being economically driven. What if the card market fell victim to the same fate as the coin market of years ago? The US economy might be fantastic, but cards may fall because of corrupt grading practices. Not that there are any. Not implying that. But there are other factors besides interest rates, war and politics.

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:14 AM

Posted By: E, DanielIf there were a national/global reason for such a depression in the market, we'd all have more pressing issues to think about - like...... welcoming back into the home the son who never got married but still eats you out of house and home <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>. But quite seriously, I really don't see the major correction everyone dreads (or gleefully anticipates), or if it comes the period to take advantage of it will be a very small window indeed. Much as property may pop the bubble for 12 months or so, but then its very quickly back up to where it was and flying past to inexorably bigger and bigger numbers. I honestly think that the sports card collecting world is in it's infancy of true price affordability (that's not to say 10 years ago it wasn't an absolute steal!), that large scale adult collecting is barely 20 years old, and serious interest in vintage perhaps 10. With what I belive is the stabilizing effect of "expert" 3rd party grading to give novice collectors confidence to buy cards they might otherwise shy from, I too believe card prices will be 5 fold in ten years or so. So if you can afford to, buy now, buy what you like, and thank your lucky stars you have found the hobby before it becomes a truly murderous fight for available material. Daniel

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:27 AM

Posted By: barrysloateOne of the things that will likely keep the market strong for a long time to come is the depth of interest in rare baseball artifacts of all kinds, with vintage cards near the top of that list. Lots of avid buyers would be the best way for prices to stay strong, but like I and others have said the world can be an unpredictable place. There are surely many scenarios where baseball cards would not be everyone's first priority. But you should never root for any market to collapse, because that would no doubt mean that some other bad stuff is going on. My only regret about prices going up seemingly forever is it will turn collecting vintage material into an elitist pastime for the very wealthy. For those who love the stuff but have somewhat modest budgets, they might have to give it up. And it is possible that is where we are heading. But my final thought is, it will be business as usual- lots of buyers, an equally large numbers of sellers, and a relatively healthy economy.

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:48 AM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanHow about a major drop in the market -- for about a month? Oh, and I'd like some notice beforehand too. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:57 AM

Posted By: peter chaoJeff, Just like an attorney, always insisting on sufficient notice. Makes sense, okay, the Baseball Card Gods are required to give us 3 months notice prior to the bottom dropping out. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> But seriously, suppose the steriod issue got out of hand, that could lead to a big drop in card prices. Suppose Baseball was no longer the most important sport in the U.S., that would cause a drop in BB card prices wouldn't it? Peter

Archive

01-11-2007, 10:04 AM

Posted By: Jeff LichtmanI don't think so, Peter. I can barely sit through a baseball game on TV these days but my attraction to cards has not waned. The historical significance of the cards, attachment to bygone eras, etc. is what does it for me. The fact that the vintage card market continues to grow while today's kids barely show interest in current baseball cards suggests to me that our market will only be hit as part of a larger economic hit we all take.

Archive

01-11-2007, 10:18 AM

Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)Barring the doom and gloom scenario for a total collapse in the card market, I would love to see the card market DUMP. Again, that would be without a catastrophe occuring. I think I could live with card prices where they were 10 years ago, heck, I'd take card prices from 5 years ago. As a hypothetical question - if the bottom fell out.... I'D BE BUYING A LOT MORE MATERIAL FOR THE COLLECTION. I BUY BECAUSE I LIKE THE STUFF, NOT BECAUSE I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE WORTH MORE IN THE FUTURE. HECK, IF I THOUGHT THAT WAY I'D HAVE PURCHASED TONS MORE IN THE PAST. I GUESS IT'S MY SHORT SIGHTEDNESS IN THE HOBBY THAT KEEPS ME FROM BEING A MULTI-GAZZILLIONAIRE BY NOW....

Archive

01-11-2007, 10:19 AM

Posted By: LetsGoBucsStamps were the "baseball cards" of the mid-late 70's....They were widely collected...investors got involved...the prices attracted more collectors...prices went up and up.... The top of the market was thinly traded....several "major" auction houses continually got "breath-taking prices" for top quality and rare material. What happened?...A variety of things...people that had got on the bandwagon turned their interest to other things....investors fled...the economy wasn't doing too well...and the cycle went all the way south. I can remember a UN sheet that sold commonly for abot $700 (in 1978 prices) selling two-three years later for $25. Rare Columbian's that sold for thousands couldn't be given away for hundreds. The stamp market has bounced back somewhat but has never gotten back to where it was....There are still some very expensive items...but a lot fewer than there were. And in today's dollar terms prices on a lot of things have never gotten anywhere close to what it was. I do think that if fewer and fewer people are interested in baseball, a portion of the well-heeled collectors lose interest, along with a grading scandal - very public one that in on the evening news, that that might trigger a sharp decline. From my own observations its the small collector that will hold on to their stuff.....people with substantial money have lost money before and will still pull the trigger and dump - $500K isn't $1MM, but its twice as good as $250K. What has triggered the recent runup is that tools like ebay have unlocked demand for items - that is now very transparent - but that is no protection on the way down. Personally let T206 EX commons be $5 again. I'm ok with that.

Archive

01-11-2007, 10:37 AM

Posted By: E, DanielFor me, stamps are stamps - with pretty or interesting pictures on them, some of which exist in relatively small surviving numbers. For sports cards to be comparable, the sports part of the equation would need to flounder and sink, such that they just became pieces of card with pictures on them, made in relatively small surviving numbers.....and sports have been with us for eons, and really are one of the few common glues you find amongst people the world over. You can become a sports card collector at any age if you have ever had an interest in sports. I belive stamp collectors are born into families that support and encourage the interest from young ages. Not too many people take up stamp collecting I wouldn't think in their late 20's..... Daniel

Archive

01-11-2007, 11:00 AM

Posted By: barrysloateJeff- your comment about advance notice is similar to my take on the stock market. I look at stocks that went way up the day before, and say to myself "I should have bought some of that yesterday." The fact that I never even heard of the company is irrelevant. Back to topic- nobody knows the future- vintage baseball cards look awfully strong and no doubt they are, but it is a market like any other, and markets can and do go down. Anything is possible and it's difficult to predict.

Archive

01-11-2007, 11:45 AM

Posted By: DarrenI can only dream that the bottom will fall out.

Archive

01-11-2007, 12:09 PM

Posted By: peter chaoDarren, It's easy to say that you will buy low, but when the time comes it is hard to do. A couple of years ago the stock market virtually crashed, did everybody suddenly start buying. For sure I didn't, because I was fed up with the market. The same may happen for cards. By all indications Barry Bonds cards look like they have hit the bottom. It doesn't look like people are rushing in to buy his '87 Fleer rookie. Peter

Archive

01-11-2007, 12:12 PM

Posted By: Rich KleinThe parts of the market which stay the strongest in any "vintage" correction are the best possible conditioned cards and the worst conditioned cards. The best, because there are always people with extra $$ in any economy who can look at that as a major buying opportunity The worst, because the percentage that they pay compared to the best is so small, appeals to the collector who wants a card but may not have a lot of extra $$ to spend. Just like in our economy, the hardest hit are those in the middle. Rich

Archive

01-11-2007, 12:13 PM

Posted By: barrysloateGood piece of wisdom Rich. And you have been watching market trends as long as anyone in this hobby.

Archive

01-11-2007, 02:01 PM

Posted By: Dan KravitzRich- Need to add one notation to your theory... rarity or scarcity of certain issues need to be taken ito account. Those will undoubtedly stay strong. One reason for that is that they will contiunue to sell privately, and just like land... They ain't building any more of it. Bruce - High grade cards will take a hit (not including rare or scarce issues) too, maybe even more than most because there will be less players who enter the high priced market for fear of a serious crash. I know I wouldn't enter the market or continue buying if I feel the market is going backwards. I would assume that most guys just hold tight and pick up cards cheap if they can. The best thing to happen to our hobby is that it stays consistant and adds more collectors. That will ensure a healthy return (if that is what you are into it for) of investment. Me? I hope I can continue to aquire what makes me happy and in the end I would like to have something more to show for my passion.

Archive

01-11-2007, 02:12 PM

Posted By: DarrenPeter, I'd be happy to prove to you my stance, but I'm afraid I won't have the oppurtunity in the vintage card market. My collections and collecting have always been motivated by factors other than monetary value. When I pull the trigger to acquire a four figure card it's not with the expectation of profit but with the idea I better get it now while I can.

Archive

01-11-2007, 02:12 PM

Posted By: peter chaoGuys, Long before this thread got started I set aside 5 cards I would keep in the event of a crash. It's a cautious but worthwhile approach. Also, it reminds us that the real reason we collect is because of the memories. Peter

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:10 PM

Posted By: john/z28jd I agree with Darren,if the bottom drops out im buying as many cards as i can before the price goes back up and if it never did go back up then id have what i would consider the ultimate collection hopefully by the time im done. In all honesty i cant see that ever happening because there would be too many collectors who wont sell their cards now for twice what theyre worth so why would they sell them then for alot less? For someone like me,once a card is in my collection that i really want,it has no monetary value.An example is i bought a card a few years ago for $12 that i wanted and about a year later i was offered $250 for it(which was about 3 times what it was worth) and i wouldnt sell it and it was because if i wanted an extra $250 i could work a few extra days at work for it but i might not get that card back anytime so i wasnt selling.The other side of the story is if i wanted to sell the card i still wouldnt have taken $250 for it because it was an $80-100 card at the time and the person was a fellow collector who ive talked to a few times so i wouldve charged them a fair price knowing full well they could possibly help me out sometime later

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:19 PM

Posted By: barrysloateGood philosophy of life John. I admire your values.

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:23 PM

Posted By: peter chaoJohn, The fact that there are collectors like you is the reason the prices for vintage cards keep going up. A lot of us would not sale a prized card for double the going market price. So the market keeps bumping up the price until someone does sale. On the other hand the mercenary investor keeps the prices low because they are ready to sale once they have their profit in hand. Peter

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:47 PM

Posted By: Dan KravitzAnyone who thinks that the vintage card market is going to crash and your just going to buy the cards you have always wanted, think again. If the market truly crashes, most likely our entire economy will be headed in the wrong direction and there will be some major problems in our society. None of you will be looking for a card if you need to feed your family or pay the gas bill. I do however; believe there will be a slight adjustment to prices as every market experiences. That is not a crash. Most collectors wouldn't just sell off their collections unless they had some major personal problems or they were getting out of the hobby. So, let's hope things continue at a reasonable pace and we all collect happily ever after.

Archive

01-11-2007, 04:55 PM

Posted By: warshawlawInteresting topic; perhaps the high level of responsiveness reflects a little anxiety on the part of would-be buyers?? Bruce: “On those items priced between $500 and $5000, the market is generally limited to 20 or less people with specific collecting goals.” Don’t know which market you are referencing but it sure isn’t the one I operate in. There are many, many more collectors who spend in this range per card than your estimate. I’d guess hundreds if not thousands. I would bet that at least 50 people who participate on this board have spent in excess of $500 for a card in the last year. Also, I know you probably didn't mean it to sound that way but I really can't equate a PSA scandal with a terrorist strike. May want to rewrite that list of priorities a bit. Ted: As I recall, the drop in card prices you referenced did not take place until the recession brought on by the Reagan administration to take down the late 1970s inflation. Plus, you are perhaps forgetting what was happening in cards at the time. Materials were pouring out of attics and closets, especially from the 1950s, and entering the market in huge quantities. Peter: I don’t think anyone who collects prewar materials would base a collecting decision on Mark McGwire. If anything, the scandals of today‘s sport boost the appeal of older nostalgic materials. John: Ditto. I’d not sell my cards for money that doesn’t impact my lifestyle. Now, if someone offered me enough to pay off my mortgage with, I’d probably do it.

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:13 PM

Posted By: E, DanielUh oh Adam, I didn't think we were talking mortgage money <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> Daniel

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:34 PM

Posted By: john/z28jd To Dan K,since i have mentioned it twice that id buy alot of cards,im sure im in a different boat than most people on here. I barely make above minimum wage,i work at a restaurant with free food and drinks which i take advantage of and i have a meager rent to pay,besides that its a cell phone bill and car insurance and thats it,no wife no kids,no dependants unless you count my dog,and even his bills i share with my brother.So chances are ill still be in the same situation even if theres a large change in the market. I can move back home and pay no rent and use a family car and can my cell phone if it got real bad so technically i could then work part time somewhere and still be in the same financial situation i am now So at least for me,i can safely say im sticking to my plan of buying as much as possible once that bottom drops out. Bring on that recession,just means less work for me! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-11-2007, 05:53 PM

Posted By: warshawlawJust that it would have to be that magnitude to take them away from me. Otherwise, they'll have to pry my cards from my cold, dead fingers.

Archive

01-11-2007, 06:54 PM

Posted By: MikeUPersonally, I would love to some "bearish" behavior. All the more for me to buy.

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:15 PM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisI like your style of thinking. I have cards in my collection that I have been offered big $$$$, and many of them were acquired ages ago. So, you know I didn't pay much to get them; but, I'm not going to part with them because I enjoy them. I am not an "investor", I am a true collector. And, to your hopes of the BB market collapsing......it aint going to happen, ole buddy, as long as INTEREST RATES stay as low as they are now. The stock market could take a dive, other factors could go sour......but, as long as INTEREST RATES stay low, the collectibles market will flourish. History has shown this to be true over a long period of time. T-Rex TED

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:27 PM

Posted By: john/z28jd Ted i also have a strong hope that people start burning up cards from the 80's and early 90's so the ones i have will be worth something.Id sell the doubles of them and then put the money i made right back into the vintage card market to help keep it strong <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:52 PM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisI still have 10's of 1000's of useless cards from 1981 to the early '90s. Boy, are you're right, if there was some magic way of "wheeling-n-dealing" them into vintage stuff, I am all for it. TED Z

Archive

01-11-2007, 07:56 PM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisYour recollection of Reagan causing a recession in the 1980 -83 time frame is absolutely laughable. Correction.....Reagan inherited a disasterous ecomomic situation from the Jimmy Carter days. When Reagan took office in Jan 1981 inflation was in double digits and the INTEREST RATES were hovering around 14%. Do not tell me otherwise, I have a lot of respect for your intelligence. I had my house built at that time and I cannot forget paying a 15% mortgage rate (as everyone else was nationwide). By the 2nd term of Reagan (1987) I re-financed my mortgage into a 7.5% rate. And, this was possible because Reagan cut TAXES in 1983 and the dynamic of his tax cuts resulted in bolstering the economy......which resulted in LOWER INFLATION and LOWER INTEREST rates. Why the heck do you think he won 49 out of 50 states in the 1984 Presidential election ? ? There has never been a "landslide" like that in all the history of US Presidential elections. Just ask anyone who was in the BB card hobby (or any collectibles) during the mid-80's to 1990, the hobby was......"ROCKING". If you tell me otherwise, you are guilty of "revisionist" history, and I will have lost some respect for you.....and I don't want to. TED Z

Archive

01-11-2007, 08:29 PM

Posted By: AnonymousTed, There was a recession. Interest rates are adjusted by the Fed. to slow inflation or to encourage economic growth. The interest rates went so high to slow the economy down, and they were lowered to try to reinvigorate it during the recessionary period. There was a severe stock market decline during this period also.

Archive

01-11-2007, 08:33 PM

Posted By: peter chaoTed,' Actually your post made me feel a lot better. Since I consider you to be "the Man" when it comes to shrewd buying of prewar vintage, your revelation about the money you wasted on '80s and '90s stuff made me understand that I wasn't the only guy that wasted their money on the mass produced shiny stuff. Now the only thing would make me feel better is if somebody would pay me to take this "shiny stuff" out of garage. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> Peter

Archive

01-11-2007, 08:48 PM

Posted By: MikeUCards from the 80's are worth more to me personally than any pre-war card. I would hope a lot of board members feel the same. At least the ones that are around my age (34). I spend little to no money on 80's cards now, but that does not take away from them being the genesis of my collecting and loving the hobby. Those worthless cards are invaluable. Back on topic, I also love vintage cards.

Archive

01-11-2007, 09:53 PM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisWhat recession are you talking about ? Is it the 1973 one when we had long gas lines ? Or is it the Carter years 1977-81 when we had high inflation.....high interest rates.....and long gas lines in 1979 ? Tell me which one you are talking about ? Yes, the Fed tries to control inflation; but, when the economy is disasterous as it was in the above situations, inflation is out of control. The only proven way to generate a "booming" economy, is to allow the people of this country to keep more of their hard-earned money. And, you do that by reducing TAXES for everyone. John Kennedy did this in 1962.....Ronald Reagan did this 3 times during his Presidency.....and Geo. Bush has given us 3 TAX CUTS since he has been in office. And, every time the dynamic of letting people spend.....invest.....or save more of their money has resulted in a prospering economy. Hey, this idea of cutting people's taxes is nothing new....it's at least 2400 years old. In 400 BC, King Ptolemy V reduced the taxes of the people in his kingdom in Alexandria, Egypt. And, these people were so overjoyed they erected a monument to honor him. How do we know this, the Rosetta Stone tells us so.....on this monument was this famous stone Tablet. If you don't understand this dynamic by now, then I can't help you. TED Z

Archive

01-11-2007, 10:01 PM

Posted By: Ken McMillancards will always have value, but that is not the reason I collect. i collect because I like them. I do not look at my collection as $$$ spent in the least bit. I like to look at them and handle them and if the bottom fell out of the market, wouldn't bother me at all. It would be an opportunity to collect more interesting cards. Ken

Archive

01-12-2007, 04:26 AM

Posted By: AnonymousTed, I can see that you are a master of selective memory who is not bothered by facts that are extraneous to your reductionist theory of economics. In my view reductionist theories are drawn from a well of self interest, thus their immense popularity. I can also see that further conversation on this subject would be fruitless and not really why I spend my time here, so, peace be with you, I am moving on to other conversations.

Archive

01-12-2007, 04:28 AM

Posted By: barrysloateTed- I know I'm pretty old, but for the life of me I can't seem to remember King Ptolomy's tax cuts <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-12-2007, 04:38 AM

Posted By: AnonymousOh, Barry, that reminds me, I can't resist one more comment. Do you remember Caligula? He cut taxes upon becoming Emperor, became wildly popular with the people, quickly depleted the treasury, had to reverse field and tax everything to support his decadent self-indulgence, went crazy and was assassinated.

Archive

01-12-2007, 04:42 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellI collect because I love the hobby but there is no reason why baseball cards cannot have a place in a diversified portfolio. In every financial planning meeting I have ever had I discuss the cards and their value with my financial adsvisor. High grade vintage cards have been a great investment. Bruce is right in that the market can get thin as you get higher in dollar value. As I try to acquire the cards I need to finish my psa 8 and better sets in many cases I know exactly who my competition is for the cared and how much I need to bid to get it. While the participants may differ by set, there are a limited number of collectors that play in each one. Lastly, Ted Z, if you and I could talk politics we would get along famously--Reagan is my hero and I am a big believer in across the board tax cuts to stimulate growth. Jim

Archive

01-12-2007, 05:12 AM

Posted By: Ted ZanidakisWOW......there is common ground between us. Well, you are more vocal than I.......so why don't you explain to these "TAX lovers" the significance of governments letting people keep more of their hard earned money. Better, yet....let them pay 50% (or more) of their income in TAXES....and us smarter guys will only have to pay no more than 25% of our income. I will never understand about 33% of the people of this country who are willing to give almost 1/2 of their income to the government for its ineffective programs, "pork" barrel projects, and wasted $$$$ for all these politician's whims (whether Democrat or Republican). TED Z

Archive

01-12-2007, 05:19 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellAmen Ted!

Archive

01-12-2007, 05:34 AM

Posted By: barrysloateNobody likes paying taxes- even I hate them.

Archive

01-12-2007, 05:48 AM

Posted By: warshawlawIf you are going to call me out, at least have some facts to back your position. The recession that occurred is a fact and no amount of revisionism can change that. Perhaps I can remind you of the facts by quoting from a report by that bastion of left-wing democratic partisanship, the Federal Reserve Board. Per the Fed, the economy reached a peak in July 1981 and a low point in November 1982: Table C Business cycle peaks and troughs in monthly IP since 1972 ------------------------------------------------------- Peak Trough ------------------------------------------------------- March 1979 (May 1979) July 1980 July 1981 November 1982 September 1990 (April 1989) March 1991 June 2000 December 2001 ------------------------------------------------------- <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/G17/Revisions/20021205/g17rev.txt" target="_new" rel="nofollow"><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/G17/Revisions/20021205/g17rev.txt</a" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/G17/Revisions/20021205/g17rev.txt</a</a>> The table I presented from the Fed also points out that the economy reached a peak in 1979 and another depth in 1980. So, in fact, my revisionist friend, your man Reagan benefited at the ballot box from a slump during the height of the 1980 election campaign, rode the recovery from that dip and crashed the economy all on his own starting 6 months into his term. He presided over a recession so sharp that it was considered the worst since the Great Depression. Equally as important for our discussions, and totally bypassed by your hysterical screed and the subsequent debate over how you hijacked this thread, is the fact that a ton of cards poured into the Hobby from the late 1970s into the early 1980s. If you want to know why prices dropped dramatically on some cards around that time, look no further than supply meeting and in some cases outstripping demand. In late 1979 I was offered $500 for a near mint 1953 Mays. A year later, I saw dozens of these cards in just one dealer's case at a show here in LA. When the prices went up sharply, the news stories started and the cards poured out of the woodworks, especially the 1950s and 1960s stuff.

Archive

01-12-2007, 05:56 AM

Posted By: T206CollectorThere has been a long-running debate (eons) about the best way to spur an economy -- either by raising taxes to increase government spending and decrease government borrowing (see Democrats); or reducing taxes to increase consumer spending and increase government borrowing (see Republicans). Both sides try to point at different indicators to prove who was right about why whatever happened happened. But whether you buy into John Maynard Keynes, Adam Smith or Milton Friedman -- and in a strange way to tie this all back into the subject of this thread -- the only thing I learned as an economics major in the early 1990's (other than about 500 reasons why Reaganomics were disasterous to our country) is that in the long run we're all dead. I think baseball card collecting will go the way of the do-do bird, but it will be long after those of us populating this Board move on.

Archive

01-12-2007, 06:09 AM

Posted By: DylanOfcourse its easy to like someone that issues massive tax cuts but Reagans policy paid no attention to the future and the consequences. Yes the economy recovered robustly. But despite his large tax cuts, spending grew unabated, resulting in a dramatic increase in federal budget deficits and the national debt. And to all those that love to give all the credit to Reagan for the economy and the Soviet Union collapse etc. there were other factors at play. Perhaps most importantly was Paul Volcker whose policies in the federal reserve faught the massive inflation(which were planned out and beginning to be enacted before Reagan ever took office), plus the decline in oil prices after the supply shock ended in the middle east. There's two sides to every story and yes we came out of the recession and that was good, but it also got the deficit spending ball rolling to new heights, and it has seemed that since it got rolling its continued to snowball. Its easy to cut taxes and continue to spend money... just let the next guy worry about it right? That was Regean's great plan. The trickle down effect was a good one too. Cut taxes for the very rich and it'll "trickle down" to the lower classes, YEAH RIGHT, we saw how that worked out! If you want to cut taxes fine, but dont make the next generation pay for it by deficit spending. Replublicans claim there all for a small federal government and tax cuts. Well i dont see it, all ive seen as of late is massive spending, and a federal government that becomes more powerful by the minute!

Archive

01-12-2007, 06:14 AM

Posted By: Jason LI would be happy to come to your garage with a truck and haul off all your 1982 and 1983 Topps, and 1984 and 1985 Donruss sets for $5 each. even raw cards are fine! Just send me an email! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-12-2007, 06:22 AM

Posted By: Ted Zanidakis1st.....Where do you get off that I "hi-jacked" this Thread ? In my initial post (1/10/07..11:59 AM) I simply presented the history of how collectibles' values have tracked as a function of INTEREST RATES over the past 25-30 years. You, then (1/10/07..7:55 PM) countered with some "anti-Reagan fiction" about some "recession" which he was not responsible for in the 1981-83 timeframe; but, with his subsequent tax cuts turned the economy around. I only responded to your comments....if anyone set this Thread off on a digression, it was you at 7:55 PM yesterday. 2nd....I was very active in this hobby in the late '70s and throughout the '80s and I am fully aware of BB card collections coming out of the woodwork. I was the lucky enough to be the recepient of many such "walk-ins", at shows from 1977 to 1987.

Archive

01-12-2007, 06:42 AM

Posted By: barrysloateI think I'm heading back to the Seinfeld thread. It's quieter over there.

Archive

01-12-2007, 07:18 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellDylan, Thats left wing garbage. Reagan tried hard to cut non-defense spending and the Democratic congress vblocked him again and again. He also cut taxes across the board--not just for the wealthy--and by the way it worked great. Jim

Archive

01-12-2007, 07:33 AM

Posted By: barrysloateLeft wing garbage. Is there such a thing as "left wing wisdom?" Just curious if it even exists.

Archive

01-12-2007, 07:37 AM

Posted By: Jason Lit was sighted briefly once, and it appeared just to the left of the car in the Zapruder film...hard to see though, as it was only visible for a fleeting second

Archive

01-12-2007, 07:43 AM

Posted By: MikeUhm....I forget, what set of cards were we discussing ?

Archive

01-12-2007, 07:49 AM

Posted By: T206Collector...are the two biggest dividing lines in society, at least when it comes to casual conversation. Since neither has anything to do with baseball cards, I think they should both be topics that are not permitted to be discussed here. They will inadvertantly spiral into horrid sh*itstorms. By and large, you can expect to see the same split along class lines. For example, it is not surprising that the PSA 8 collectors defend Reagan -- the white and the wealthy often do. But it is totally irrelevant to this Board.

Archive

01-12-2007, 07:51 AM

Posted By: MikeCan I be black and wealthy?

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:06 AM

Posted By: T206Collector...you can be black and wealthy. I hope that my post was not mis-construed to suggest otherwise. The converse is also obviously true -- you can be white and poor, too. I am not tryign to start a race or class war -- far from it. I am just suggesting that this Board should try to stay away from such emotional topics that have nothing to do with baseballl cards. We have hard enough time as it is being civil about cards -- we need to show years of good behavior about cards before we should even think about entering politics, religion, race, class, etc.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:14 AM

Posted By: Josh Adams"He also cut taxes across the board--not just for the wealthy--and by the way it worked great." Haha!!Thanks for the laugh this early in the morning. Whatever you are smoking, please, pass me some! Talk about "garbage." Go Go White Sox 2005 World Series Champions!

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:14 AM

Posted By: leonI would prefer not to get into political talk on the board but this kind of thread begged it, unfortunately. I tend to let things go a little too long but I really do hate shutting threads down.....For me on topic. I hope the bottom doesn't fall out as I do have more than I should (money) in my cards. I don't buy for my personal collection as an investment but since I have taken funds from other places to put into it, it definitely classifies as one. One that has done much better than the stock market so far (knock on wood), I might add. My wife's first question is always "are you selling it". When I don't answer she knows the answer...

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:15 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellMy poor hispanic next door neighbor also likes Reagan.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:17 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellThink or do a little research here buddy.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:19 AM

Posted By: Josh Adams Edit: he's just not worth it. Let talk about cards! Go Go White Sox 2005 World Series Champions!

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:20 AM

Posted By: barrysloateJim- if you are hoping to draw a nice crowd to our Jan 25 meeting, this may not be the best way to do it...just a thought.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:21 AM

Posted By: T206Collector...are harder to peg. They tend to be more religiously guided in their voting, and since they are Catholic, tend to vote more Republican. It's all stereotyping. There are always exceptions. Loads of rich white people loved Bill Clinton. Politics take all kinds. But it is not surprising that we would have a large Republican presence in a vintage baseball card chatboard, which is predominantly afluent white folk. Hell, there are hardly any pre-war black baseball players -- I am devoted to T206, hopelessly, and there is nary a black player to be found.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:21 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellBarry, I agree but I will not let a personal insult go unchallenged. Jim

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:22 AM

Posted By: barrysloateWell, I admire your moxie! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:23 AM

Posted By: Josh AdamsJim, No personal insult intended. Just thought what you said was pretty funny, and called the assertion garbage. Didn't call you garbage. If I recall, you did the same thing in a similar post. And I don't think we are the Knights of the Round Table either. Nobody is insulting your honor. Go Go White Sox 2005 World Series Champions!

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:25 AM

Posted By: Jason LCan we get that NYC meeting on pay-per-view?! Jim, I kinda doubt your neighbor is poor, hispanic or not yes, Leon, let's quickly retreat back to an on-topic topic, such as why did the T206 set include the minor leagues at all? It's such a big undertaking...how big would one of today's sets be if it covered the majors and minor leagues too?

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:25 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellNot true Paul--Bush won under 40 percent of the hispanic vote. I agree that it is to be expected that the majority of board members would be conservative repubs--frankly I am shocked that there are as many liberals as there seems to be. Leon might have to dop a poll on this.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:39 AM

Posted By: T206Collector"Not true Paul--Bush won under 40 percent of the hispanic vote." I was not saying that a majority of hispanics vote Republican. I was saying that Republicans have better luck attracting hispanics with a religious agenda. There are tons of other variables at play. I really dislike speaking in stereotypes.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:52 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellThe biggest variable is that the Cuban-Americans in Florida vote heavily Republican because of the Repubs stance vs Castro and communism. Mex-Amer vote heavily Dem which is why New Mexico shifting into Dem column and why Cali is safe for Dems.

Archive

01-12-2007, 08:58 AM

Posted By: Josh AdamsOne of W's nephew's, George P., is part Mexican, I believe, and lives in Florida. They have made significant inroads with the Hispanic population in Florida in recent years. Plus taking a kid in the middle of the night didn't help the Dems cause either!

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:03 AM

Posted By: E, DanielI always thought Reagan should have been immortalized in a star wars trading cards set.......<img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> He spent enough on it to at least be recongnized for his efforts. What's interesting is that in Australia and Europe, for years people weren't even sure that Reagan was actually alive, we'd watch his speeches rambling mid sentence from one completely different idea and topic to another, look around, and wonder if the CIA hadn't found a way to keep a cadaver alive and feed it speech to befuddle a nation. I say this not to offend - though of course it will, but it was incredible coming to the USA and seeing the way America remembered his tenure. And the reporting of it world wide......really, he was considered a bit of a joke by nearly every mainstream media organization outside of the US - and the cold war ending seen much more as a result of an extraordinarily politically brave leader called.....Mikhail Gorbachyov. Sorry ahead of time, but we watched the USA spend its future away under Reagan and recording astronomical budget deficits to that time unimaginable, and couldn't understand how this government could be called a conservative one. At least Nancy understood stem cell research, however little JimC might <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14> Daniel

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:04 AM

Posted By: peter chaoJason, Thanks for the offer of buying my '80s cards. I'd rather trade them for your prewar cards. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> Peter

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:16 AM

Posted By: barrysloateJason- how dare you try to break up a good fight under the pretense of talking about T206's <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:29 AM

Posted By: Jason Lwith such a weak question like that... I will step aside, and watch the carnage that will serve as my lunchtime reading <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:31 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellDaniel, Whew! Lucky you got back to the U.S. in time before being totally brainwashed by the mainstream media. Tax cuts, strong economic growth, a buildup in defense and bringing down the evil empire. He was a legend. Jim

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:35 AM

Posted By: JoannResolved: I will read every post Jason L writes. Always very smart and often very funny as well. hee Joann

Archive

01-12-2007, 09:36 AM

Posted By: Josh AdamsKetchup as a vegetable. Yup, he was a legend!

Archive

01-12-2007, 10:45 AM

Posted By: Jason LIt's always great to have fans! Of course, now there is tremendous pressure to write something funny and smart every time out, but now that I know that it matters, I will try to "bring it" every time I'm on the keyboard:) ...amd someday, I hope to have gained enough knowledge about something that I can actually contribute to the learning process here on the Board! But you know what they say,...eh - I got nothin'

Archive

01-12-2007, 11:18 AM

Posted By: JKWell, I hadnt really been following this thread, saw that it was nearing 100 posts and thought - "better read this baby - there must be a fight going on." Hey, I got an idea, can we discuss Iraq now? That should be good for another 300 posts. Im with who ever stated that politics and religion ought to be banned topics on this board. Nothing good ever comes of it. Frankly, some of you are beginning to sound like a broken record.

Archive

01-12-2007, 11:22 AM

Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted2004 Presidential elction results....source: The Almanac of American Politics George W Bush....62,040,606 (51%)....won 31 states....won 2530 counties John Kerry...........59,028,109 (48%)....won 19 states....won. 583 counties Depending on survey source....GW Bush received 42 - 45 % of the Hispanic vote NOTE....the 62,040,606 votes for GW Bush is the highest number of votes for a US President, ever.

Archive

01-12-2007, 11:44 AM

Posted By: JimCrandellAccording to CNN(not Fox News), Bush-Kerry: Whites 58-41%(White Men 62-37%) Blacks 11-88% Latino 44-53% Asian 44-56% Other 40-54% By income, below $60,000 annual income more likely to vote for Kerry--above Bush. Most Important Issues: 1)Moral Values!! 2)Economy 3)Terrorism 4)Iraq

Archive

01-12-2007, 11:46 AM

Posted By: JKPlease stop.

Archive

01-12-2007, 11:49 AM

Posted By: JimBJosh K said, "Well, I hadnt really been following this thread, saw that it was nearing 100 posts and thought - "better read this baby - there must be a fight going on." My thoughts exactly. What baffles me is how Republicans can consider themselves the party of fiscal responsibility when under Republican leadership in the past 27 years we have amassed hundreds of billions of dollars of debt and under Democratic leadership we amassed a budget surplus (as promised). JimB Spending a lot on the war machine and a very little on education is a vicious cycle.