maybe OT: How do vintage card prices compare to coin prices?

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Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>Vintage card prices have gone way up lately, but I've been wondering, how do they compare to coin prices - say of similar interest within the hobby and similar population? Population is a tough thing to identify, there's been arguments if PSA pops (even combined with SGC pops) have any value at all, but in comparison to pops of coins, I think it would be worthwhile. I don't know anything about coins, maybe some on this board does.<br /><br />For example, what would be the equivalent of a T206 Lajoie with bat PSA 6 in the coin market. The Lajoie PSA 6 went for $1500 the other night. <br /><br />I know the coin market is much larger than the card market (at least I think I know). If card prices have overpassed coin prices, then it is a sure sign there is a problem. But if coin prices have also gone up recently, maybe it's not a problem to be feared.

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Posted By: <b>tbob</b><p>Seems like I read somewhere that the crash in the coin market was directly linked to the grading phenomenon. This was years ago so I don't know if the coin market (or stamp market for that matter) has rebounded.

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Posted By: <b>Richard</b><p>I think that the comic market draws a closer parallel to the card market. <br /><br />1) The over production of modern during the late 80's and all through the 90's<br />2) Huge inflow of collectors and speculators during the same period<br />3) The crash of the "hot" new comic which featured such things as a Spiderman hologram, the death of Superman, rare parallel cover only offered if you bought 50 copies of Stormwatch #1, etc.<br />4) The investor money leaving the industry in the late 90's - collectors who actually read the books that they buy are left<br />5) CGC grading becomes popular and high end vintage comics are being slabbed and sent to auction.<br />6) Strong movement towards vintage silver age and golden age items, high grade and spiking prices.<br />7) Investors return

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Posted By: <b>identify7</b><p>I respectfully reject your premise. I do not believe that nuismatic prices justify nor refute what occurs in the baseball card marketplace; anymore than philately relates to comic book prices, Old Masters to antiquities nor home prices in LA verifying or contradicting those in NYC.<br /><br />It is however, a very interesting question, because there are many parallels among the items collected. In general though, my (non-expert) observations have indicated that coin collecting has resulted in less rapid movement in prices, while maintaining a generalized upward trend (that sounds like the weatherman).<br /><br />"There will be a general cooling trend as winter approaces, followed by increased periods of warmth as winter gives way to spring."

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Posted By: <b>BlackSoxFan</b><p>just to help those of you out there that didn't major in english -<br /><br />Nuismatic - probably supposed to be numismatic - ie....coin collecting<br />Philately - ie ....stamp collecting.<br /><br />hehe <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br><br>Regards,<br />Black Sox Fan<br /><br />- - - - - - - - -<br /><br />I'm Smart Enough To Know, There Are A Lot Of People Who Know More Than I Know<br /><br /><a href="http://www.blacksoxfan.com" target="new">BlackSoxFan.com</a><br /><a href=mailto:shoelessjoe@blacksoxfan.com?subject=Ne t54>email me</a>

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Posted By: <b>Rick</b><p>The coin market is huge when compared to baseball cards...unlike card companies the US mint has done a lot to encourage new collector interest ( the state quarters has been a fantastic sucess and recently the new nickel)<br /><br />coins are also a much older hobby, its been a sort of haven agaisnt inflation specially when things are uncertain ( terrorism, high oil prices) along with art work, coins cater to some very well to do folks.<br /><br />and again quality and rarity when combined will bring amazing prices ...the money needed to buy THE psa 8 t-206 wagner (arguably the most desired card) would NOT even get you a top ten coin<br /><br />I really think that rare high grade cards are also starting to find their way into "investment" portfolios of some people who come from old money. Probably a very small amount compared to their rare books, coins , art work etc..

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Posted By: <b>Scott Elkins</b><p>wasn't the grading itself. The grading just proved that a lot of coins were not as rare as dealers had hyped them to be (especially Morgan Dollars). The grading was really a good thing, as it truly showed which coins were rare and which were not. Since then, the coin market has "leveled out" - rare coins have increased, while overhyped coins have come to their true prices.<br /><br />Also, a lot of the common silver and gold coins are based on bullion prices. When silver and gold are up, prices are up. When silver and gold are down, prices are down.<br /><br />All in all, the card market has PLENTY of room to grow price wise. Take a card with a population of one by all three major grading companies (ie: an Old Put Cobb, Baltimore News Cobb or Croft's Cocoa Cobb). These cards have sold this year for only four figures each. If they were coins, the price would have been at least six figures and more than likely, seven figures! So, for all those skeptics who think the "sky is falling" b/c caramels are increasing each month, you need to get out now and sell me your truly rare caramels now!!!!!!! <br /><br />

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Posted By: <b>ItsOnlyGil</b><p>Don't stop now, BSF, you are on a roll.<br /><br />What the heck are "Old Masters" and "antiquities"?<br /><br />Edited to add: But of course, you are right! I owe you all an "m". Here it is: -----------&gt; m<br /><br />heehe.

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Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>really boring. I collected them for a while. You know what? All Mercury dimes look like all other Mercury dimes. At least my cards of the same players look different (usually). The market is huge, though. I attended the Long Beach Expo a couple of times and the amount of money involved was truly impressive. At least the govt reintroduced the buffalo nickel so I can now use one of my favorite expressions again: He squeezes a nickel so tight that he can put a crease in the buffalo's ass. <br /><br />And comics? Don't get me started. How the hell can you slab a book and never be able to read it? That's like shooting up your tongue with novocaine then ordering the filet mignon.

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Posted By: <b>Richard Masson</b><p>I hear you on comics. I have nary a book in plastic.<br />Also, Rick, didn't you mean new money rather than old money? My experience with old money is they are stingy and wouldn't blow dough on baseball cards.

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Posted By: <b>Julie</b><p>The Fall, 1975 "Arcade," with my favorite collecting story in it, about a phonograph record, by R. Crumb. ("That's Life!" R. Crumb's collected works, volume 10--cheaper than original comic.The Mylar sheaths sold to house valuable comic books are very nice for photos of larger sizes.<br /><br />Tik collects the new state quarters.<br /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/jphotos/thatsl.jpg">

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Posted By: <b>identify7</b><p>Vintage card prices have gone way up lately,<br /><br />I admit that card prices have increased, but I am not sure that an across the board "way up" characterization is accurate.<br /><br />cmoking: you have offered this statement. What is your definition of "way up"?

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Posted By: <b>cmoking</b><p>why I used "way up":<br /><br />1. My personal experience of what I collect - 1933 Goudey PSA 6 to PSA 8 cards - is that there is much more competition and at a higher level. It feels like prices are up about 20% in general in the past year. <br /><br />2. As for other cards, I read all the comments about cards going at higher prices, and compared to prices that other people paid just a year or two ago. I don't have any direct experience in those cards since I don't collect them, so it is all just reading from others.<br /><br />Are those good reasons to use "way up"? Maybe it should have just used 'up'. <br /><br /><br />As far as pops comparing to the coin market - I don't know much about the coin market, but I checked on a few coins and their pops - and it is amazing how high the population reports are. There are coins that sell for $1000 that have pops in the 1000s in that grade. Sure, these coins may be gold-based, so they do have the melted value of gold itself, but that still leaves $500 as collector value. I can't imagine a graded card, even of the most popular player, with a population of 1000, say in PSA 8, that would sell that high...even Mantle wouldn't sell that high. Yes, I know pops aren't that accurate if you compare 5 vs 8 or 11 vs 20 (PSA pops versus real pop in the world), but the compariosn of 20 to 1000 means that even if the PSA pop doubled, it's still a huge difference. So the question I posed I have answered for myself - not a definitive answer, and not saying anyone should accept my answer, but it is good enough for me. And that answer is that by looking at another hobby - the coin collecting hobby - one can't say that the vintage market is obviously overvalued based on supply. That doesn't mean it isn't overvalued, it could still be if demand doesn't exist...but the supply isn't even close to the coin market. Now if it was the other way around - say the coin pops were close to baseball cards with the prices around the same or lower for 'equivalent stuff' (I know that's hard to gauge), then the vintage card market would be in trouble based on that info. Sorry for the rambling, I'm sure many sentences are incoherent, I'm too lazy to edit.

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Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>I was told that for comic books, a couple of rich men were purchasing comics at extremely high prices (bubble). When these men quit buying, the prices came back to earth.<br /><br />This helps explain why an item's worth and what a idiot with too much money pays for it is not always the same thing.

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Posted By: <b>Hal Lewis</b><p>So do we know if those same idiots starting buying baseball cards next?

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Posted By: <b>warshawlaw</b><p>esp. gaudy monstrosities in place of wristwatches and pig-men in mumus. <br /><br />Oh, wait, that's already many of the "name" dealers, isn't it?