Archive
04-29-2005, 06:40 AM
Posted By: <b>Gilbert Maines</b><p><br /><br />The other evening I was reviewing again Lew Lipsett’s Old Judge periodicals from the ‘80s, and I came across an analysis of prices which he conducted in 1987 which defined the trends for the period since 1980. His summary revealed that a strengthening in the prices for Mint cards with a corresponding weakening in the prices for vg/ex and even a greater weakening in those cards which grade f/g was evident throughout the seven year interval. This relationship was presented as a change in percentage of Mint value for the lesser grades. That is, in 1980 there was not a lot of difference in the prices for cards graded Mint, vg/ex or f/g. The actual difference for selected pre-war cards was: vg/ex ran about 65% of Mint value, and f/g ran about 30% of Mint value. This difference in values during this period, results in a 1987 status being 36% of Mint for vg/ex and 11% of Mint for f/g cards. In other words, during the seven years between 1980 and 1987 vg/ex cards lost almost half of their value and f/g cards lost more than half their value when related to mint cards.<br /><br />I then was curious about what has happened since that time and pulled out some old Beckett price guides (which was the reference that he used), and a new one, and compared the performance of card values for the sets which were selected to portray the card market. The expansion of this study to the present indicates a continuation of the widening trend applied to between grade prices until just before the 1990s. The f/g values bottomed out around 6% of Mint and vg/ex dropped to about one third Mint, before both grades turned around. Currently, for pre-war cards, the between grade price gap is shrinking. This resurgence in strength of the lesser grades has resulted in vg/ex cards commanding prices relative to Mint cards approximately equal to those levels which existed in 1980. The f/g cards have achieved about half of the value relative to Mint grade which they had in 1980.<br /><br />So then, the relative values of vg/ex and f/g cards dropped substantially from 1980 – 1990, and the vg/ex have fully rebounded, while the f/g have made up about half of the ground which they have lost compared to mint values. <br /><br />Lew then identified the appreciation rate applicable during the 1980 – 1987 period in a tabular format. <br />Please note: Lipsett’s study included post-war cards, and so did my expansion of his effort. These cards have performed somewhat differently than the pre-war cards. There were only five sets used by Lipsett to characterize the pre-war market: R319, T3, T205, T206,E145. So, none of this is a comprehensive research project, nor was it intended to be. In any event, Lew’s prewar data and my extractions and interpolations from later Beckett guides are presented below with the focus on card value appreciation.<br /><br />Percent of appreciation: ( ) = negative appreciation, ie. Loss – full card sets.<br /><br />R319 (Goudey)--1981-1987-------1984-1988--------1988-1991---------1991-2004<br />Mint--------------150-------------528--------------189--------------(59)<br />Vg-ex--------------76-------------417--------------250---------------(1)<br />F/g----------------43-------------145--------------313---------------143<br /><br />T3-------------1981-1987--------1984-1988--------1988-1991---------1991-2004<br />Mint--------------150-------------304--------------145--------------no data<br />Vg-ex--------------40-------------180--------------178--------------no data<br />F/g---------------(25)--------------0--------------156--------------no data<br /><br />T205----------1981-1987--------1984-1988-------1988-1991---------1991-2004<br />Mint--------------700-------------636--------------212--------------130<br />Vg-ex-------------256-------------417--------------250--------------200<br />F/g---------------122-------------167--------------275--------------341<br /><br />T206----------1981-1987--------1984-1988-------1988-1991--------1991-2004<br />Mint--------------460-------------594--------------204---------------0<br />Vg-ex-------------243-------------178--------------222-------------196<br />F/g----------------50-------------178--------------250-------------295<br /><br />E145 CJs------1981-1987--------1984-1988--------1988-1991-------1991-2004<br />Mint---------------20-------------330--------------215-------------155<br />Vg-ex-------------(30)------------185--------------260-------------247<br />F/g---------------(63)-----------(95)--------------319-------------376<br /><br />Now friends: please realize that there could be errors in data entry or calculated values in all information presented above. Although I’ve tried to eliminate that possibility, I would imagine that I haven’t been totally successful. So, if you want anything verified or methods explained, please ask. And if you can offer any corrections or other enhancements, please do.<br /><br />I did come across a few interesting data points while assembling the information required for this brief assessment. One is that since 1991 Mint grade t206 sets have not changed in price. Another is that since 1991 R319s are down in all grades except f/g – most notably in Mint where the set lost about 40% of its value since 1991. Also, a financial guy once told me that a “good” investment was one which doubled every seven years. The T205, T206 and CJs in f/g grade are the only sets in this field which have approximated that performance level since the 90s. But, we must bear in mind that even if I have made no errors in the data presented here, it is information generated from Beckett price guides – this publication is one which some feel does not have a history of prioritizing updating the prewar prices it publishes.<br /><br />Please share any observations you may generate if any of this information is of interest to you. I found this stuff very interesting, but then again, I imagine that those whose collecting focus includes investment potential, already are well aware of the market’s performance over the past few decades.<br />