Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[Rhotchkiss]

I am sitting in an airport bored and checking different auction house websites. Goldin has some “top 100” auction coming up and I looked at the preview. One card they have in that auction is a PSA 9, 1955 Topps Sandy Koufax rookie (staring bid $50k). This seems like a true investor card/canary in the coal mine for card values, and so I started to check VCP on prices to guess what it’s “worth”. Here is a link to the auction preview: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__goldin.co_item_1955-2Dtopps-2D123-2Dsandy-2Dkoufax-2Drookie-2Dcard-2Dpsa-2Dmint-2D9ka38t&d=DwMF-g&c=euGZstcaTDllvimEN8b7jXrwqOf-v5A_CdpgnVfiiMM&r=RB8QbKP1go-xm49quNiiEmu0uJR081C-CNSowojLmKw&m=7bxoLnUCeUYGHBpT8aN_lBkCmYC1Oi54EvEwhj8pj5w&s=Qoivx-2FmvY5EwpKquhCaUnya9tyzwxcNzfoiI7ok8A&e=

Below are pics from VCP showing the sales history of PSA 9 sales (first pic) and the more robust sales history of PSA 8s (pics 2&3). As you can see, this card in an 8 peaked in late 2021/early 2022 and has generally been on a down swing since then, with the lowest comps being the most recent. I believe this tracks most vintage cards. However, the highest PSA comp is the most recent (November 2022) and clearly, 9s sell much more rarely than 8s.

Question: Based on this info (and anything else), what do you think this card sells for when the auction closes? Will it be higher or lower than my over/under price, and why?

I am placing the over/under at $345k and I am taking the under.

The psa 9, 2021 sale was $369k. Looking at the psa 8 comps, most recent sales appear to be about 10% below 2021 sales from August. So I am thinking about 10% below the psa 9, 2021 comp makes sense, putting it just below the $345k strike.

But this card could finish anywhere- I wouldn’t be surprised if it closed at $250k or over $400k, but I do believe there is more downside than upside potential vs the last comp. Factors such as economy, Covid boom and general card popularity, registry set collectors, the auction house, psa cert numbers (the high comp is a newer cert # and the card in question am old one), among other factors, could impact the final result. What do you think?

Favor- there are several on here who bitch, moan and complain on any thread that talks about values or grading. We get it, this type of thread is not for you. And I respect that. But please respect those for whom a thread like this may be interesting and don’t post here unless it’s generally in furtherance of the topic. For example, replies that are not needed: “I don’t care bc I only collect raw”. “Whatever it’s worth, liquidate your 401k”. “I would rather have a new house than this card”. “I don’t care what my cards are worth so I don’t care what this card is worth”. “Great, another what’s it worth thread”.

[ClementeFanOh]

Hi Ryan- I’ll take the over, and just barely. It’s a brand spanking new PSA 9 and I think someone will go high to claim him. Just a hunch…and by the way, you probably warded off half the commenters by asking that people stay on topic:) An unusual percentage of folks seem to have problems with that, even when the topic is crystal clear. Trent King

[Casey2296]

Nice card.

I'll take the under on the 9, guessing 295K-325K range, although it only takes a couple of registry guys or a "recommendation" to a "client" that this is a solid investment to drive the price north.

Maybe it's my eyes or an optical illusion but doesn't the bottom edge look wavy?

Your last paragraph got a chuckle too.

[Lorewalker]

Hi Ryan- I’ll take the over, and just barely. It’s a brand spanking new PSA 9 and I think someone will go high to claim him. Just a hunch…and by the way, you probably warded off half the commenters by asking that people stay on topic:) An unusual percentage of folks seem to have problems with that, even when the topic is crystal clear. Trent King

Well done with taking it OT on the first reply.:confused:

As to to the main topic Ryan raised, while I think the market for a great deal of material has pulled back, I feel a card like this appeals to a different caliber of hobbyist and will see a record price. Safe travels.

[raulus]

Predictions on pieces like this are always a fool’s errand, although as fortune’s fool, perhaps I’ll proffer a few lame and mostly self-evident observations.

Not many of us have the deep pockets to swim in these deep waters. Even if we do have pockets so deep, we might prefer to avoid sinking it all into a single card, and instead prefer to spread our wealth around.

As a result, I suspect that the final price will largely be governed by 2-4 potential buyers. Although it’s possible that others might be in the mix, including someone for whom this might represent their only foray into the hobby, my inclination is to guess that these potential buyers are either major Koufax fanboyz/collectors or else serious collectors of this set. Just how crazy those buyers are willing to get will largely be a question of how they’re feeling in the last couple of days before and especially the day of the auction closing.

Do their animal spirits come alive? Do they throw caution to the wind and let it rip? How drunk do they get? And in the days/weeks before the auction, what else is swirling in their lives that emotionally pushes them one way or the other? How long have they been saving up their pennies for this specific card in this specific grade? Do they get emotionally attached to the idea that they have to win this one, no matter what? Do they start mentally preparing a spot on the wall where this one will go, such that they already view it as theirs, and decide to not back down even in the face of someone equally determined to win it? As you can tell, I’m projecting a bit now.

One of the other elements here is how often these babies come to market in this high grade. It looks like there’s been a handful over the last couple of years, which probably helps to satiate some of the pent up demand out there. For high grade pieces that haven’t come to market during the pandemic, often the pent up demand is pretty overpowering, with those pieces going absofreakinglutely nuts.

But getting back to those potential buyers, since so many of these questions are so uniquely personal, are dependent on future events, and for people that are probably largely unknown to most of us, it’s impossible to really even begin to attempt to predict with any degree of precision.

Having said all of that, my general sense is that when high graded, low pop pieces for inner circle hall of famers, particularly for their early years come to market, the market continues to surprise me. Even shock me to a great extent.

Accordingly, I tend to be inclined to guess high. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one approaches or even exceeds $400k (with the juice, natch). But like some of the earlier comments, my sense is that the range here is wide, anywhere from $250-500, depending on just how many players decide to get into it, and just how nuts they’re willing to go to make sure that they land this piece.

[Bkrum]

Interesting topic that I will take a swing at. When I checked out the card the first thing I noticed is that the card didn’t have the usual sharpness that I often note with the Koufax rookie. Sandy’s usual dark, tan complexion looked a little light or faded. Otherwise the card is gorgeous with immaculate centering and corners but it didn’t “speak to me”. So if the standard is in the range of all time highs I will take the under. Put me in the 325k camp
Just my two cents…..

[pawpawdiv9]

under -barely reaches 300, then new buyer re-sells in 6 months for a nice profit.
*forgot ya'll that didnt get the notice, the re-boom is coming back in 6 months.
LOL

[rand1com]

Easily over. A newly graded 9 will bring in the high rollers because it will be perceived as the nicest 9 on the planet. The economy does not affect buyers that can afford a card like this.

[bnorth]

Mainly because of who the AH is I will say WAY over the highest bid will be.

[Yoda]

Somebody will buy it.

[Rhotchkiss]

Easily over. A newly graded 9 will bring in the high rollers because it will be perceived as the nicest 9 on the planet. The economy does not affect buyers that can afford a card like this.

I don’t think it’s newly graded. While I am no PSA expert, I am pretty sure it’s a very old cert#; I just think it’s been reholdered. In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.

[parkplace33]

Over, and solely over due to who the auction house is.

[sb1]

Has nothing to do with the strength of the pre-war sector.....apples and oranges.

[swarmee]

In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.
I think we've discussed in a few of the trimming threads (and others where people ask), that PSA certs did not go in numerical order, until they started picking up around 20 years ago and then filling in all the certs that were never issued. So while some 30,xxx,xxx certs (and 50M, 90M) were graded 20+ years ago, the vast majority of 30M certs were graded 5-6 years ago, and the 50M that weren't ancient were graded during the COVID boom. PSA hasn't gotten to 90M yet, so all those are ancient. This one starting with 03 is definitely ancient and reholdered.

[chalupacollects]

I don’t think it’s newly graded. While I am no PSA expert, I am pretty sure it’s a very old cert#; I just think it’s been reholdered. In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.

It is an old cert number. Not sure it gets a 9 today.. Registration is off on front by his name and several small fisheyes on the same plane. Also the back seems to have a diamond print (card not diamond cut) if you look close at bottom line.

That said I vote $200-$250k for some reason...

[Exhibitman]

The interest in a $350K card is about as relevant to the overall health of the hobby as the price of a custom mansion on the beach is to prices for tract homes 100 miles inland. The decision-making processes of a tiny group of collectors who are wealthy enough to contemplate buying a $350,000 card do not have anything to do with 99.99% of collectors. These super-expensive card buyers are basically non-responsive to economic tides due to their extreme wealth.

A better gauge for hobby health is to look at the passed lot percentages in the run of the mill auctions. They are still extraordinarily low by historical standards. Last week's Sterling Auction had 501 lots with ten passed lots. REA's March 19 auction had one passed lot. That indicates a very active buying public is still engaged heavily with the hobby and buying basically whatever is out there. Prices may be stagnant or falling on some classes of items but interest is still sky-high.

[ullmandds]

Unda

[Johnny630]

It will sell way over $350,000 setting a new record high. This seems to be a new normal commonplace in Major Auction Houses on High-Grade Cards Specifically PSA 9 HOF Rookies.

[ALBB]

Ova

[theshowandme]

I'm going over. Him and Mays are the last two baseball gods from that era.

Goldin will be blasting it all over social media I bet.

What a card!

[trambo]

Interesting thought on the over under. Looking at the PSA pop report, the card has a total pop of 25 in a 9. That makes it one of the most common 9s in the set. There are also 3-PSA 10s. To me, it's rare but not so rare and not a top pop so the set registry chasers may not chase as hard as they would if it there were no PSA 10s.

As for the slab, it's an old cert # and at some point after it sold for $204k at Heritage in 2017, it was reholdered.

I'd likely take the under here as I'd bet with a pop of 25 in a 9, there will be other opportunities to buy the card. I'm also biased because it's not an era I collect. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to plunk down that kind of money on a card from that era that is easier to find in higher grades. Plus, it would appear you can get an 8 for less than 10% of recent 9 sales.

Should be fun to watch! Thanks for the question, too!!

[steve B]

I think it will sell for more than the last one, but not with much confidence.
The sales history looks like that card in that grade only comes up about once maybe twice a year, with occasional years with none.

I think the number of people who can buy one is small, but also somewhat insulated from a changing economy. Right now is probably a good time to buy, as the actual state of the economy is less important than the uncertainty of what's going to happen.

I would disagree that this tier of the hobby doesn't affect others. Demand and prices have been driven by publicity and other pricing as long as I've been collecting. If it was really separated purely based on condition and price we would see easily spotted steps in pricing, here the 9s and maybe 10s included. We do see a huge drop off to 8s, but it's more gradual after that. If it was purely condition based, it might look like
10 Who knows
9 300K+
8 30K ish.
567.... whatever they go for now, but all priced right around the 6 price.
345 maybe half that or even less,
below a 3? a very cheap card like it was in maybe the late 80's. saleable, but with stagnant prices, since the only buyers would be beginners, people with little money, or as a temporary space filler in a collection.

[raulus]

A better gauge for hobby health is to look at the passed lot percentages in the run of the mill auctions. They are still extraordinarily low by historical standards. Last week's Sterling Auction had 501 lots with ten passed lots. REA's March 19 auction had one passed lot. That indicates a very active buying public is still engaged heavily with the hobby and buying basically whatever is out there. Prices may be stagnant or falling on some classes of items but interest is still sky-high.

Adam - I guess I'm not as familiar with the thinking behind why passed lot percentages are a meaningful metric as a gauge for the health of the hobby. Could I trouble you to unpack that a bit more about why you view it as meaningful?

Unless I'm mistaken, a passed lot is merely a lot that didn't get any bids. I suppose part of the fun there is where the auction house puts the initial bid, and whether that's an attractive price point. But even if just one person bids, then the item wouldn't fail, right? I suppose it's also possible that if the item has a reserve that isn't met, then that might count as a passed lot.

Part of me also wonders whether a big part of the calculus here is the question of whether the auction house is deliberately turning away relatively worthless pieces (maybe a 1988 Donruss common in BVG 6 as an example) such that they never get to auction, and therefore never have a chance to fail because no one will bid the minimum $10 on them.

[luciobar1980]

No idea on price, but that's an insane card :eek:

[Exhibitman]

Adam - I guess I'm not as familiar with the thinking behind why passed lot percentages are a meaningful metric as a gauge for the health of the hobby. Could I trouble you to unpack that a bit more about why you view it as meaningful?

Unless I'm mistaken, a passed lot is merely a lot that didn't get any bids. I suppose part of the fun there is where the auction house puts the initial bid, and whether that's an attractive price point. But even if just one person bids, then the item wouldn't fail, right? I suppose it's also possible that if the item has a reserve that isn't met, then that might count as a passed lot.

Part of me also wonders whether a big part of the calculus here is the question of whether the auction house is deliberately turning away relatively worthless pieces (maybe a 1988 Donruss common in BVG 6 as an example) such that they never get to auction, and therefore never have a chance to fail because no one will bid the minimum $10 on them.

Sure. I've been watching passed lot percentages in 'collector' level card auctions since the Great Recession. At the worst, some auctions had 30% of lots not open. I noticed during the pandemic boom that virtually everything sold. I think in 2022 I had one passed item among hundreds of card lots I consigned to cash in on the surge in prices. To me, the fact that nearly everything still is selling is evidence of broad interest in the hobby. There are a ton more middle-class collectors spending relatively modest monthly budgets than there are wealthy collectors pursuing six-figure cards. The latter make the headlines, but the former are the bread and butter of the business. My take-away from passed lot figures is that despite the many auctions out there, collectors are not saturated and not fatigued. Prices may fluctuate, but interest is still high.

[raulus]

Sure. I've been watching passed lot percentages in 'collector' level card auctions since the Great Recession. At the worst, some auctions had 30% of lots not open. I noticed during the pandemic boom that virtually everything sold. I think in 2022 I had one passed item among hundreds of card lots I consigned to cash in on the surge in prices. To me, the fact that nearly everything still is selling is evidence of broad interest in the hobby. There are a ton more middle-class collectors spending relatively modest monthly budgets than there are wealthy collectors pursuing six-figure cards. The latter make the headlines, but the former are the bread and butter of the business. My take-away from passed lot figures is that despite the many auctions out there, collectors are not saturated and not fatigued. Prices may fluctuate, but interest is still high.

Thanks for sharing. I'm shocked that it used to be as high as 30%. What a time to be alive!

[darwinbulldog]

Under. By 10-20%.

[Touch'EmAll]

I'll go $350.-360.k, a tad over. We are in a new world now, and the high rollers want their cards.

Off-topic, but look at your cards carefully when they come in the mail. I have just had 3 cards where they didn't pick up flaws. SGC 8 - was a divot on the front. SGC 7 - was an obvious surface abrasion. And a PSA 7 with rubber band mark indents on edge. Oh, my. How can these get thru PSA/SGC with high grades ?

[ullmandds]

under by 20%...imo.

[Misunderestimated]

I actually think your number makes sense -- but I'll go very slightly over maybe $350,000.

I note that there are about 25 PSA 9s and 3 PSA 10s -- both are high for this set. And it means that "better" ones are out there. Also, Koufax is one of the oldest living HOFers (Mays is now the oldest) ... I'm not sure how this factors into it but it certainly could. His career ended in 1966 -- a long long time ago. Mays' ended in 1973 (after Koufax was elected to the HOF)....Pretty sure there is no one alive who was elected before Koufax....

Without violating the OPs last paragraph I don't think that a card this high end can provide fair measure of the "health of the hobby" (whatever that means)... The hobby is not ultimately who "can say the highest number" (to quote Logan Roy out of context) on the highest end of a high end card....

[theshowandme]

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230403/ee1ff2e2816053a21051f54165fb7afe.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[trambo]

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230403/ee1ff2e2816053a21051f54165fb7afe.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

seeing 2 of these coming to market at the same time is likely bad for both sellers. I was taking the under before and I'd likely bet a little more now. Good thing I don't really bet....haha!!

[Rhotchkiss]

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s

[Snowman]

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

[parkplace33]

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

I think Goldin does that washed out scans to hide imperfections, especially on 55 Topps. Bad scan, you can't see the wear on the card.

"Buy the card, not the holder". I think I might be in the minority now.

[toledo_mudhen]

Guessin that it doesn't hit $250K.................

[Rhotchkiss]

The interest in a $350K card is about as relevant to the overall health of the hobby as the price of a custom mansion on the beach is to prices for tract homes 100 miles inland.

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader asset class/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the asset class/industry.

[Leon]

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, most likely less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader hobby/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the hobby/industry.

[Flintboy]

Looking at the REA scans, that card if resubmitted today would probably grade an 8 at best.

[bnorth]

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

[raulus]

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

I think that's long been the trend.

I've noticed over the last couple of years that it's flipped, probably mostly due to FOMO and a lot of emotional bidding. All the people who missed out on the first one swear a blood oath that they're going to absatively get the next one. So they go even more nuts than on the first one, and bid it up even higher.

Likely just a sign of how frothy the market has been over the last couple of years.

[Exhibitman]

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, maybe less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

See, great minds think alike...

I just don't buy the 'trickle down' view of card prices.

[BobC]

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, maybe less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Leon, I'm with you and Adam as well, sorry Ryan. I do not disagree with what Ryan was saying, but I believe he's confusing the health of the "investment" market for cards, with the health of the actual "hobby" for cards. And those are realistically two entirely different things IMO.

As you noted, only a very extremely small percentage of members on Net54, let alone in the hobby community itself, would ever be able to afford to be paying that kind of money for any card/collection. I know I can't afford that kind of money, and am perfectly happy with the lower grade '55 Topps Koufax card(s) I have had for years. A Collector is happy to have a nice version of a card they want, and isn't necessarily worried about it being this or that grade. Would it be nice to have a NM 7 version of a card as opposed to say a VG-EX 4 version, well of course, but a Collector would likely be most happy just to have a nice version of that card, period. An Investor, on the other hand, isn't necessarily worried about having this or that particular card, just one that they think they can make a lot of money off of buying, holding, and then later reselling it for a profit.

The fact that card shows are making a comeback after the pandemic, attendance is up and great, the hobby is all over the internet and making a splash, seems to show the hobby is alive and doing well. As long as baseball is still around and followed and watched by so many people, I think the hobby itself will be fine, and there will always be Collectors keeping it alive and healthy.

Now as for the Investors, that may be a different story. If these high-priced card prices start tanking, and the Investors start getting out, I think that would actually be even better for the Collectors in the hobby as all of these much desired cards will start to become more affordable and available to the everyday, true Collectors. As soon as you start trying to tie and equate hobby prices to hobby health, you aren't really talking about a hobby anymore, you're talking about an investment industry choice.

And to stay on topic for the OP's question, I think under.

[Republicaninmass]

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.



Honestly...

[trambo]

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader hobby/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the hobby/industry.

Agree w/you on this, Ryan but also believe there can be more than one market in this hobby. I'd imagine higher end, rarer stuff will always have the super wealthy chasing just like people chasing low to mid grade tobacco cards. I won't get into my opinions of that as it wasn't your original question.

Doing well over here! Currently on a 60 day vacation between things. Giving me a chance to thin the herd of doubles! Very much needed to do it!! Hope you're well, too!!

[BobC]

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.



Honestly...

Yes, but just because the tide goes out, it doesn't mean the boat has sunk either.

[Rhotchkiss]

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things have value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a marker for the health of cards as an asset class and asking whether people think it will go over/under an price point I established, and why.

[BobC]

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a market for the health of cards as an asset class

Ryan,

It is not your bad, and I agree with you wholeheartedly that the lines are absolutely blurred because most old timers that started out as just collectors have seen the value of their cards/collections skyrocket in recent years. Especially when you start talking about vintage and pre-war. It is literally impossible in most cases to separate Collectors from Investors anymore. The value that people's cards/collections may now have makes it impossible for them to ignore that along with their beloved hobby collection, they may also be sitting on a big profit as well. And as everyone starts getting older, you can't help but start thinking about retirement and estate issues and planning for spouses/family.

Now as for the health of the investment side/aspects of the hobby, that is a tough question as well. Unlike traditional investments (stocks, bonds, etc.), cards themselves don't have anything that really changes, unlike with stocks and bonds where companies can have good years and bad years, or interest rates rising and falling. To me, cards are more like one of those investment options that people are now starting to look at as potential alternatives to the traditional types of investments when the values of those traditional investments look to be going down. When the stock market is tanking and the interest rates are down, people may see prices rising in cards as an alternative investment choice they think can possibly do better over a short/long term than those more traditional investments. This recent pandemic surge though was a somewhat unique situation that saw both the traditional stock markets AND card prices rising. Likely due a lot to the excess cash being poured into our economy in anticipation of concern for the pandemic's effect on our overall economic health. Now that that all seems to have pretty much passed and ended, I wouldn't be surprised to still see cards as an investment option/choice, but maybe now working more so as an alternative to the traditional investments. So right now, with talks/fears of a major recession still in the picture, people that have moved some of their investment assets into these high-end, high-grade cards, may just keep them there for now. But with all the crap that has been going on with the economy and world of late, including all the unrelated external issues, the fact that the stock market hasn't completely imploded (in fact I thought I read where the market just ended the best quarter we've had since back in 2020), many investors may be thinking we are at, or close, to the bottom, and the stock market will begin rising going forward. In that case, I can see people getting out of cards and back into the more traditional investments at some point in maybe the not so distant future. In that case, as that may eventually start to happen, I think you'll see the Collectors keeping the lower end/condition cards in pretty similar value to where they are now. But the higher-end, higher priced investment grade/type cards, I can see those cooling off some as Investors may move more of their money back into the more traditional investment markets. Exactly when that may start to happen, well if I knew and could accurately predict that, I'd have been retired years ago. LOL

[BobbyStrawberry]

"Haters" gonna hate! A rising tide lifts all boats, remember? ;)

[Touch'EmAll]

The interest and ability to purchase a PSA 9 Koufax RC draws from a very small crowd. First, you need $300.k discretionary funds. Second, you must want to buy that particular card instead of some other $300.k card such as a Ruth or Gehrig or Cobb, etc.

Statistically, not a lot of correlation with the PSA 9 Koufax and the masses that are searching shows and ebay for raw current modern, or even graded post-war HOFers.

Blowout forum has a thread kinda like - state of the hobby based on current shows. They report the hobby is alive, well and thriving based on what they see at shows - attendance, deals being made.

It sure wouldn't hurt the overall market if a PSA 9 Koufax RC goes for record price. On the flip side, if the Koufax tanks, how much effect will there be on the crowd buying modern Luka/Giannis/Mike Trout type stuff? To get a better fix on the market, better to track cards more attainable and desired by the masses.

However, this Koufax card sale must be considered rather important for the folks in that similar market.

But sure is fun and interesting to track what the high rollers are after and at what prices.

[MACollector]

Goldin has a show on Netflix starting April 28th. I will take the over just on the publicity and people that it may draw to the auction.

[Casey2296]

Goldin has a show.

I remember the Goldin show on HSN, didn't turn out so well for folks.

[Exhibitman]

The basic conceptual misalignment we have here is that cards are not a single asset class and card investors are not a single group. It is an oversimplification to treat any specific aspect of the hobby as a bellwether for the entire hobby. it is simply too diverse. A very interesting piece ran on Sports Collectors Daily recently with Chris McGill, the Co-Founder of Card Ladder, who provided some statistics on different segments of the hobby over the last 5 years:

Ultra-Modern: +639%

Modern: +744%

Vintage: +270%

Pre-War Vintage: 340%

Yet over 2022, modern was down 30% and prewar vintage was up 29%. it isn't monolithic. The 1986 Jordan RC losing 60% of its value from the market top didn't affect the market for T206 Cobbs or 1933 Goudey Ruths. Similarly, what happens with the 1955 Koufax will pass right by the guys looking for a Jim Brown rookie card.

[Rhotchkiss]

Deleted

[JustinD]

under by 20%...imo.

In this boat here.

[Republicaninmass]

I remember the Goldin show on HSN, didn't turn out so well for folks.

History may not repeat itself, but does make for a good mirror.


Pump and dump 90s junk on "new investors" before it all came to a crashing halt.

When your neighbor with no knowledge can flip (insert asset here) its wont end pretty.

This time, its different.

[raulus]

This time, it’s different.

Said by everyone, every time.

But this time it really is!

[Republicaninmass]

Said by everyone, every time.

But this time it really is!

5 or 6 of my signed HOF 52s which did "all time High's" in memory lane..are. being resold .through Goldin for less.


Been spending most their life, living in a flipper paradise

[steve B]

I get if you don't think the sales of the expensive stuff affects the related or identical cheap stuff.

But I'm completely convinced it's a factor in prices.

Consider a few sets.
T206 - easily the most common set of its era, maybe the most common prewar set. When I started, commons that were vg ish, were 1.50. First tier HOF $10. Cobb was more. Wagner was I think around 10K
Other sets from the same era? Despite being overall more difficult, often much ore difficult, the "easy" ones like E90-1 Sold for about the same.
Even later when T206 commons were around $10 E90-1s were maybe $15.
If there was no trickle down from the Wagner and slightly less from Plank, where would T206 commons be now.
I would say that being so easy, they would be less than 33 Goudey commons.

Similarly, I think 52 Topps owes most of its popularity to the Mantle. I don't think 52 Topps commons are tougher than say 53 Topps or 52 Bowman.

[Yoda]

I keep thinking about that old Wall St. maxim, "The Greater Fool Theory" where you are the last one holding the bag.

[bnorth]

I keep thinking about that old Wall St. maxim, "The Greater Fool Theory" where you are the last one holding the bag.

I have been saying that for a very long time with graded cards and card collecting in general with the crazy prices and rampant scamming. So far I have been very WRONG.

[raulus]

I have been saying that for a very long time with graded cards and card collecting in general with the crazy prices and rampant scamming. So far I have been very WRONG.

If you look at past manias and crazes, sometimes it takes several years to work through the process, with the mania growing in leaps and bounds along the way, before reaching peak frothiness and finally something breaks and it all comes crashing down.

The tulip bulb mania in Holland is one of my faves, and seems apropos here. In the end, the high end stuff was still very valuable. But all of the low end stuff got washed out.

[parkplace33]

Interesting that Rea in the next auction not only has a 55 Koufax psa 9 but a 55 Clemente psa 9. I marvel how these high grade cards continue to be auctioned one after the other.

[Exhibitman]

Interesting that Rea in the next auction not only has a 55 Koufax psa 9 but a 55 Clemente psa 9. I marvel how these high grade cards continue to be auctioned one after the other.

It's eerie, almost like some artisan is just churning them out, one after the other.

[raulus]

Interesting that Rea in the next auction not only has a 55 Koufax psa 9 but a 55 Clemente psa 9. I marvel how these high grade cards continue to be auctioned one after the other.

Obviously nosebleed prices have a way of bringing stuff out of collections and into the market.

At the same time, you always wonder when all of the buyers who are willing to pay nosebleed prices will be fully satiated. Or when they will run out of cash to keep buying.

[Exhibitman]

Or when they will run out of cash to keep buying.

https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.6c3bd70fdc870fee8cb8592ce21a00b4?rik=pamJMrAirVM hEw&riu=http%3a%2f%2fthumbpress.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2014%2f03%2ffunny-gif-playing-chairs-falling-fight.gif&ehk=e%2bY94q2AgD3%2f9z3qXIiMoWUH3vN7W4w%2fgx7R%2bZ XBLnE%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0

[steve B]

If you look at past manias and crazes, sometimes it takes several years to work through the process, with the mania growing in leaps and bounds along the way, before reaching peak frothiness and finally something breaks and it all comes crashing down.

The tulip bulb mania in Holland is one of my faves, and seems apropos here. In the end, the high end stuff was still very valuable. But all of the low end stuff got washed out.

Tulip mania was pretty much limited to three years.

I've been hearing about the pending collapse of card prices for about 45 years.

[raulus]

Tulip mania was pretty much limited to three years.

I've been hearing about the pending collapse of card prices for about 45 years.

I’d say the asset class has gone through a few purgings in the last 50 years. Early 90s comes to mind in the wake of the crazy runup during the junk wax era. In the wake of the Great Recession there seems to have been another pretty solid pullback.

And given the recent runup during the pandemic of 300-1000%, which is maybe 2+ years old, I’d say that it’s a little early to proclaim that the parallels between this specific time and tulip mania are irrelevant.

[oldjudge]

LOL, looks like every auction has one—I’ll take the under

[JimC]

I assume by now most have seen that there is also a PSA 9 Koufax rookie in REA. Ryan, I'm curious - - does having two on the market at the same time alter your expectations?

[Rhotchkiss]

I assume by now most have seen that there is also a PSA 9 Koufax rookie in REA. Ryan, I'm curious - - does having two on the market at the same time alter your expectations?

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

[theshowandme]

The Clemente 9 in REA though

https://media3.giphy.com/media/H7iEm8CKI9ZAs/giphy.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bigdaddy]

Even before seeing the REA Koufax, I'm on the side of 'under'. Just a gut feel.

[BobC]

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

Not to steal or hijack your thread, but maybe add on to your initial question? How do both cards fair in regard to your $345K over/under query, AND which AH's Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more, including the BP?

I had initially guessed the '55 Topps Koufax card being sold by Goldin would be under, and I'm going to guess REA's will be under as well. Now I initially want to guess REA's Koufax card will go for a higher amount than Goldin's, but I'm wondering if for a card of this value if the Goldin vault doesn't possibly impact the final sales price? Someone using Goldin's vault can absolutely escape sales tax, whereas an REA buyer may end up with a significant sales tax liability of tens of thousands of dollars, which I can only assume they may factor into what they end up bidding. So, I'll reluctantly guess the Goldin Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more.

And though I understand and agree with Ryan's thinking and logic regarding a second, later sale usually going for less, that mostly works best when you have exactly the same bidders in both auctions. I'm not so sure there may be serious bidders in only one or the other auction, but not in both, for whatever the reason(s).

[raulus]

Not to steal or hijack your thread, but maybe add on to your initial question? How do both cards fair in regard to your $345K over/under query, AND which AH's Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more, including the BP?

I had initially guessed the '55 Topps Koufax card being sold by Goldin would be under, and I'm going to guess REA's will be under as well. Now I initially want to guess REA's Koufax card will go for a higher amount than Goldin's, but I'm wondering if for a card of this value if the Goldin vault doesn't possibly impact the final sales price? Someone using Goldin's vault can absolutely escape sales tax, whereas an REA buyer may end up with a significant sales tax liability of tens of thousands of dollars, which I can only assume they may factor into what they end up bidding. So, I'll reluctantly guess the Goldin Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more.

Unless I’m completely barmy, I understand that a buyer on any platform can ship to most any vault, and with most (all?) of the vaults being located in no sales tax states, a buyer of the REA piece could enjoy similar sales tax treatment that a buyer enjoys when buying from Goldin with a straight deposit into the captive Goldin/CU vault.

Ergo, anyone looking to save by using a vault should be able to do so even when buying on platforms that don’t have an integrated vault.

Having said that, my preference is for all y’all to have to pay sales tax, so that I can benefit from the inherent bidding advantage that comes with living in a state with no sales tax.

[BobC]

Unless I’m completely barmy, I understand that a buyer on any platform can ship to most any vault, and with most (all?) of the vaults being located in no sales tax states, a buyer of the REA piece could enjoy similar sales tax treatment that a buyer enjoys when buying from Goldin with a straight deposit into the captive Goldin/CU vault.

Ergo, anyone looking to save by using a vault should be able to do so even when buying on platforms that don’t have an integrated vault.

Exactly right, and totally agree. But, I'm also thinking in terms of there maybe being some bidders who prefer to only bid with Goldin, and vice versa. And I'm going further out on a limb and guessing a Goldin fan/bidder is more likely to use Goldin's vault than an REA fan/bidder is likely to use any vault. Other than that, no real rationale, just mostly pure guessing.

[raulus]

Exactly right, and totally agree. But, I'm also thinking in terms of there maybe being some bidders who prefer to only bid with Goldin, and vice versa. And I'm going further out on a limb and guessing a Goldin fan/bidder is more likely to use Goldin's vault than an REA fan/bidder is likely to use any vault. Other than that, no real rationale, just mostly pure guessing.

You could be right. Obviously the integrated auction houses cum vault operators hope that the convenience of their integrated operation makes their vault much more attractive to potential users.

And I suspect you’re right that the user base may vary a bit between these two AHs, although I also suspect the profile of buyers at the 6-figure level between these two platforms varies less.

And with a 5-figure sales tax bill in the offing, I suspect a vault might seem less odious to the purchaser.

[Fuddjcal]

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

surprised you didn't bid on that one too:) but you make excellent points. I always appreciate your insight, Thanks.

[Casey2296]

Exactly right, and totally agree. But, I'm also thinking in terms of there maybe being some bidders who prefer to only bid with Goldin, and vice versa. And I'm going further out on a limb and guessing a Goldin fan/bidder is more likely to use Goldin's vault than an REA fan/bidder is likely to use any vault. Other than that, no real rationale, just mostly pure guessing.

There's no greater disparity of an approach to business than there is between Brian and Goldin, some people identify with Brian's approach some people identify with Goldins approach, when it comes to pre war I think Brian's approach resonates with more folks.

[raulus]

But after almost 1 whole day of bidding, the REA version is up to $210 (with the juice).

Naturally, most of these auctions tend to see a lot of action early, as we all get our initial bids in. Usually followed by a lull as we all try to assess what we really want, and how high we're willing to go to get it.

And then during the last couple of days the bidding goes nuts again as one by one the earlier bidders drop out until the winner stands alone atop the mountain.

Of course, sometimes we get that last part out of the way a little earlier, as a couple of bidders will decide to go nuts early on until one of them gets exhausted and finally gives up. By that point the price is so astronomically high that no one else will touch it, so it doesn't move again, and goes final a few weeks later at that price.

Goldin opens later tonight, so we'll see how quickly it shoots up.

[Touch'EmAll]

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that “a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It’s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

[BobC]

There's no greater disparity of an approach to business than there is between Brian and Goldin, some people identify with Brian's approach some people identify with Goldins approach, when it comes to pre war I think Brian's approach resonates with more folks.

Exactly why I was saying what I was. There are many people I've heard exclaim they'll never do business with the likes of some sellers/AHs. Also, some business formats/platforms are set up more for the investor types than the true collector types as well. I would classify Goldin as playing more to the investor type, and REA to the collector type. Nothing wrong with either, but the investor type IMO would be much more likely to take advantage of a vault service.

[Johnny630]

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that “a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It’s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

When it comes to investing I like to follow many of the Buffet/Munger ways. I’ve never heard them interested in hard assets such as Gold or Art. They despise crypto, as do I. I wonder if they agree with what your first quoted comment, that traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank. Somehow I think they’d rather invest in Farmland instead of non-wealth producing assets.

[Touch'EmAll]

Yes, very true what you say about the way of the older Buffet/Munger. But the article is about the younger generation of investors.

[raulus]

Yes, very true what you say about the way of the older Buffet/Munger. But the article is about the younger generation of investors.

These alternative investment structures for illiquid assets like this have been around for a few years now.

In concept it’s certainly intriguing.

I think my biggest concerns are:

1) I don’t actually own all of the thing, but instead I just own some small fraction of it. I’d rather own all of something to enjoy it personally, rather than own 0.001% of something that I will never actually see.

2) Admin costs for these investments tend to be high, which eats into your returns pretty dramatically.

3) I’m worried about shady characters and fraud. Do I really own part of a Van Gogh? Or did I just get part of a fake? Did they only sell 10 million shares, or did they sell 500 million shares, and I own a lot less than I thought? What happens if the people running the show take the asset and flee to Brazil? I know that there’s supposed to be safeguards for a lot of this stuff, but I’m not ready to really trust it just yet. Hopefully the crypto goons have taught us to be wary about other goons pitching alternative investments.

4) While it’s supposed to be liquid, I suspect that in times of economic stress, you might struggle to find buyers, or have to sell at fire sale prices to cash out your investment.

[BobC]

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that “a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It’s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

Not really unexpected that for investments of this type things would start to go this way, is it? And in relation to earlier comments made about differences in business practices and strategies between the likes of REA and Goldin, which of the two could any of you see as more likely to also start doing something similar for their customer base, offering to buy and hold a major collectible item that no one can really afford to ever buy themselves, and then offering to sell partial interests in it to the general public?

For a T206 collector that could never afford one of the "Big Four" cards themselves, this could at least be a way for them to buy a partial interest in say a T206 Wagner, and afford them some level of ownership. It isn't perfect, and certainly not what most any true collector would really want. But in the world of reality where there are only an extremely limited number of T206 Wagner cards that exist, and at prices that are beyond most every collector's ability to ever afford, that may be the only way such a collector could ever theoretically own a complete T206 set.

I keep hearing and seeing things about Goldin's 100 greatest collectible cards, or something along those lines they are working on, and soon to come out with. For the average collector, or a new, younger collector just starting out in the hobby, how many of those 100 greatest collectible cards do you think any of them may be able to afford? But what if someone like Goldin actually goes out and acquires one of every one of those 100 cards, and then offers collectors the chance to buy an interest in the ownership of the entire collection? You can easily go and buy and sell shares in things like an S&P 500 index fund, why not something like a 100 greatest cards collectible fund? At this recently ended Mint Collective convention out in Las Vegas, I can most definitely see that being a very possible, and viable, topic being discussed among members of the collecting industry.

And before any of you start shaking your heads and muttering that that will never happen and so on, how many of you can remember back to when you could go to the corner store to pick up some bread or milk, and you would also be able to grab a pack of baseball cards at the register as you were checking out? Would any of you back then, in your wildest dreams, have ever imagined things like Breakers and the card market/industry like it is today with the wild and astronomical prices we're seeing, or the idea of TPGs, the internet and Ebay, and on and on? Even mentioning the fact that baseball cards could ever possibly be thought of as actual legitimate investments one day would have gotten you laughed at by most everyone. Just go ask all those old collectors with their boxes of Gregg Jeffries rookie cards they're still waiting to be able to retire on. Baseball is one of those unique things that is permanently embedded in the fabric of American life, that crosses and embraces all generations, and is growing more and more on the international market as well. Soccer may be the current biggest international sport, but baseball seems to be rising and growing. like basketball has. And unlike soccer, baseball was invented and started in the U.S., so we have an even more intrinsic desire and affection for the sport, and their related collectibles, cards, and history. So, does anyone really think there wouldn't be an extremely viable, potential market for people to buy into such an idea as owning a piece of the 100 greatest baseball cards of all time. And how many times have I seen/read on this forum, people telling/advising others to look to buy the nicest condition cards, of the greatest players, from the most widely collected sets they can, if they want to have the best possible chance to grow the value of their collections? And now how many of these 100 greatest cards that Golding is supposedly coming out with do you think will exactly fit that investment advisory advice and goals?

And such an idea would likely appeal to an even larger part of the population that wouldn't normally think of collecting baseball cards at all. Now you've got people investing in the idea of Americana, Mom, and apple pie, along with potentially making a buck or two down the road...........

[Rhotchkiss]

Bob, I 100% agree with everything you said. Many on this board like things how they are and bemoan innovation. I don’t blame them, I hate change too! But where there is money involved, there is innovation, and we are seeing that in the hobby/asset class (why I struggled initially with the terminology). Those who don’t recognize the innovation may miss opportunities, or worse, get left behind.

I think fractional shares makes sense for a very few things that are super rare and super expensive - t206 Wagner, BN Ruth, PSA/SGC 9+ 1952 Topps Mantle, etc. That said, buying into a card mutual fund of diversified cards makes sense and is not very different from a stock or bond mutual fund. Nicolo makes some good points that one would have to consider, but if you can get comfortable with the sponsor and the fee structure, I card mutual fund makes. Frankly, I have dabbled with the idea of starting one and seeding it with my collection at FMV (as determined by appraisal).

[raulus]

Frankly, I have dabbled with the idea of starting one and seeding it with my collection at FMV (as determined by appraisal).

You looking to get out of the game, with this execution as your exit ramp?

Or maybe it’s more of a thought exercise rather than anything serious?

[Rhotchkiss]

You looking to get out of the game, with this execution as your exit ramp?

Or maybe it’s more of a thought exercise rather than anything serious?

I am not seriously considering it, at this point.... It certainly could be an exit down the line, especially if I keep some skin in the game and serve as the operator; it could be my "next act". I have recapitalized several real estate portfolios, why not recapitalize a baseball card portfolio?! But to answer your specific question, maybe at some point, but not now (a) because I am not ready to give up full control over my cards, (b) I dont currently have the time to manage a mutual fund of cards, and (c) I dont believe the "market" is best for valuations (thus the thread) -- I think I would rather be a buyer than a seller right now, although I am not actively buying much either.

[oldjudge]

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that “a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It’s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

At what cost? My sense with baseball cards is that you pay a substantial premium and that you never can physically have the card. To me, fractional ownership seems like a great deal for the organizer and a bad deal for the investor.

[Casey2296]

At what cost? My sense with baseball cards is that you pay a substantial premium and that you never can physically have the card. To me, fractional ownership seems like a great deal for the organizer and a bad deal for the investor.

It's a bet on the come, embracing it strictly as an investment and bragging rights at the local pub that you own a piece of xyz famous card.

The bet is that the portfolio, minus admin fees, will appreciate more than an alternative investment. You would also have to consider how many investors would show up at initial subscription, if its poorly subscribed value goes down, over subscribed, value goes up, as well as your ability to move in and out of the fund, someone may have to be a market maker if there is a run on the fund.

Might make sense for some but for me it would take all the fun out of collecting.

[oldjudge]

Bob, I 100% agree with everything you said. Many on this board like things how they are and bemoan innovation. I don’t blame them, I hate change too! But where there is money involved, there is innovation, and we are seeing that in the hobby/asset class (why I struggled initially with the terminology). Those who don’t recognize the innovation may miss opportunities, or worse, get left behind.

I think fractional shares makes sense for a very few things that are super rare and super expensive - t206 Wagner, BN Ruth, PSA/SGC 9+ 1952 Topps Mantle, etc. That said, buying into a card mutual fund of diversified cards makes sense and is not very different from a stock or bond mutual fund. Nicolo makes some good points that one would have to consider, but if you can get comfortable with the sponsor and the fee structure, I card mutual fund makes. Frankly, I have dabbled with the idea of starting one and seeding it with my collection at FMV (as determined by appraisal).

Ryan-I disagree. Equity or debt mutual funds make sense because there is price transparency on the components. Arbs will keep the value in an appropriate range. Not so on a collectibles fund. If you can’t set value based on components then you are left solely with determining a market by best bid/offer. If an event happens the volatility could go through the roof. Are you going to trust the fund provider to tell you what the shares are worth?

[Rhotchkiss]

Ryan-I disagree. Equity or debt mutual funds make sense because there is price transparency on the components. Arbs will keep the value in an appropriate range. Not so on a collectibles fund. If you can’t set value based on components then you are left solely with determining a market by best bid/offer. If an event happens the volatility could go through the roof. Are you going to trust the fund provider to tell you what the shares are worth?

No. I would be the fund provider…. But I hear what you are saying Jay. Sponsorship becomes SO much more important

[BobC]

Here's an interesting interview with Bryan Dwyer on NASDAQ Trade Talks, talking about the memorabilia side of the collecting industry, but I think, most all of what he says would apply to the card side as well. So even though many people think of REA as maybe more "collector" oriented, they recognize the investor and investment aspect as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnpGlMWlrOw

[raulus]

No. I would be the fund provider…. But I hear what you are saying Jay. Sponsorship becomes SO much more important

Not to get tooooooooooo crazy here, but I suspect you'll have to comply with securities laws, which make the entire exercise a lot more exciting. Because the penalty for failure includes serious jail time, and that would end your trip real quick.

[trambo]

I am not seriously considering it, at this point.... It certainly could be an exit down the line, especially if I keep some skin in the game and serve as the operator; it could be my "next act". I have recapitalized several real estate portfolios, why not recapitalize a baseball card portfolio?! But to answer your specific question, maybe at some point, but not now (a) because I am not ready to give up full control over my cards, (b) I dont currently have the time to manage a mutual fund of cards, and (c) I dont believe the "market" is best for valuations (thus the thread) -- I think I would rather be a buyer than a seller right now, although I am not actively buying much either.

I don't have anything like your collection but the fractional share of a card, set or something like that has been intriguing to me as well. Buying a Wagner in a partnership of some semblance has always been the musing. Would be interesting to see as, like you, have also done some recapitalization in the real estate market (smaller scale, I'm sure, and different asset class). Doubtful I ever go that route but always interesting to think through!!

[Rhotchkiss]

Not to get tooooooooooo crazy here, but I suspect you'll have to comply with securities laws, which make the entire exercise a lot more exciting. Because the penalty for failure includes serious jail time, and that would end your trip real quick.

That goes without saying. As someone who raises and invests funds, I am very aware of the federal and state compliance burdens associated with private offerings, and I believe something like this would qualify as a security for SEC purposes. Alas, it’s an idea right now, nothing more.

The point is that Bob’s discussion of card mutual funds is valid and could one day become a reality. Indeed, I have heard whispers of one about a year ago and I am very sure there are partnerships/LLCs of multiple partners/members that are currently buying cards, which is effectively fractional shares by another name

[BobC]

As an alternative way to look at things in regard to atypical or non-ordinary types of investments, at least with sports cards you still have an actual physical asset to back it up, totally unlike things like NFTs or digital currencies. Is that really any different than the vast number of publicly traded company stocks existing today that never have, and likely never will, pay any of their investors any dividends? When you own shares of such publicly traded companies you technically own a piece of all the physical assets that make up that company. Is that really any different than if you own a fractional piece of a sports card(s)?

Now if you say the big difference is that the publicly traded company is operating and is in business, and can therefore grow its value by expanding and making more money, while the sports card(s) doesn't grow or produce anything, that is true. But then the publicly traded company also has a much greater chance of having a major downturn in business, reducing their value, or changes to technologies and markets, that will eventually negatively affect them. Just look at retail companies like Sears or J.C. Penny, and how changing technology and markets impacted businesses like them. Meanwhile, I don't think anyone has to worry about Babe Ruth or Ty Cobb suddenly getting injured or having a bad year, so that the interest and demand for their cards go down. So on some levels, investing in such "blue chip" sports cards may actually be a lot smarter, and maybe even more conservative, than investing in many companies on the stock markets.

But then what about investing in things like precious metals, gold for example. Gold in and of itself doesn't produce or generate any income whatsoever, unlike the ability a publicly traded company has. In that respect, gold is really no different than a sports card, and its value is totally subject to the whims of the public at large. (However, I do realize that gold does have an industrial application and multiple uses as an actual metal, but that its value would be considerably less than it is if that were the only factor in determining what gold is worth.) Gold prices fluctuate on perceived market value by the public at large. And what is also interesting is that the supply of gold is ever growing. To my knowledge, there is still gold being found and mined today. So, in the ever-present law of supply and demand, one would normally assume that as more gold is mined, once the industrial demands have been satisfied of course, that any excess production would cause gold prices to continually drop over time as there is constantly more and more of it available in the world, and unlike other resources such as oil or coal, it is not a consumable resource. And another question to then ask, why is gold (and silver to a somewhat lesser extent) viewed as such a universal currency/commodity? Why did humans originally pick and assign this value to gold (and silver), and not so to other elements and resources, like say zinc, iron, or copper, that all have much more practical and useful purposes in our society today? Is it at all possible because early humans found gold (and silver) deposits, and even though they didn't really have any practical uses for them at that time, they liked and were attracted to them because they were shiny, and early humans liked to collect and keep such shiny things that for some reason made them happy? And then over time, as more and more early humans started populating the Earth, this somewhat universal desire and attraction to these shiny metals they all liked to collect (and you can include the shiny stones (diamonds, rubies, etc.) as well) turned into some of the first forms of universally recognized currency among these early humans. And because the human animal, and all its instincts and traits, are really no different today than it was back then, this intrinsic and instinctual desire to collect and hold such things, shiny or not, is still embedded in our human thinking and being today. And those early human instincts and desires have of course been passed down through the thousands of years, till today. So maybe that is why we all view gold and silver as such valuable alternative currencies today, because early man like to collect the shiny stuff! (And that maybe helps to better explain why the modern card collectors are so attracted to the "shiny stuff" themselves. Card companies finally caught on and invoked those early human animal instincts to attract the new, younger collectors out there. LOL)

Things like gold/silver, and even digital currencies that are still being mined and constantly added to as far as supply is concerned, have made millionaires of countless many people, especially younger people today that have gone full into many of these new types of investments. And people trade and invest in them with no true intrinsic value other than mostly people see them as a type of alternative currency if you will. So why not the same potential view and treatment as such an investment with baseball or other cards that are highly desired and collected among a large part of the world's population? The bottom line is, God forbid we have a nuclear war that destroys most of the human population and that turns the world back into the dark ages, or even worse. But you know what, regardless of how bad things may have then become, some humans will come across a piece of gold or silver jewelry, or maybe a couple of baseball cards (especially the shiny ones LOL) that somehow survived the devastation and destruction, and will grab and keep and cherish them as their valuable and prized collectibles. And then who knows, maybe in future millennia baseball/sports cards end up becoming a universally recognized de facto currency for a new world.

Human nature!!!!!!

[Exhibitman]

Not to get tooooooooooo crazy here, but I suspect you'll have to comply with securities laws, which make the entire exercise a lot more exciting. Because the penalty for failure includes serious jail time, and that would end your trip real quick.

Bingo! Compliance with securities laws is the way to legitimize the effort. Not skirt it, embrace it. If the fractional interest promoters can manage that, they have a chance at selling people on it not being a giant scam. If they act like the crypto bros, not so much.

[BobC]

Not to get tooooooooooo crazy here, but I suspect you'll have to comply with securities laws, which make the entire exercise a lot more exciting. Because the penalty for failure includes serious jail time, and that would end your trip real quick.

Nic, I've said that very thing before here on the forum as well. The way the card industry (and it is more of an industry now than just a hobby, sorry to say) is going today, it does seem to be only a matter of time before someone really does start treating it more like a true investment for more people, and that gets the government to eventually have to start paying more and more attention to what is going on, and eventually expand regulatory oversight to the entire industry once it does get big enough.

Truth is, before now the card hobby hasn't been big and valuable enough for anyone in government to really care. It's a hobby! But with all the increasing value, things like "vaults" being created and companies maybe now starting to push fractional interests in cards, the whole business is starting to look more and more like some investment companies. You and I are long-time CPAs, and of anyone here on this forum, you know exactly how what the TPGs do for this card hobby industry is an outright joke, with absolutely no true oversight, regulation, standardization, and with virtually no consequences or accountability whatsoever for anything they do. Yet we both know that CPAs and TPGs main purpose is to provide the exact same thing.......an OPINION on the state or condition of something! As CPAs though, we go through sooooo much more crap and oversight because our opinions can end up affecting the entire financial markets of the world. But no one in authority apparently gives a rat's ass about a bunch of nerdy collectors accumulating pieces of cardboard. At least not yet!

People on here, and elsewhere, had (and occasionally still do) talked long and hard about the FBI investigation into certain players in the card "hobby" industry, and the allegations of alteration fraud and other illegal activities they were suspected of being involved in. And since then many of those same people have bemoaned how it appears nothing has, or ever will, come or be done about any of it. If the card "hobby" industry were subject to some of these much higher levels of scrutiny and oversight as a truly recognized type of investment industry, with true governmental required oversight, like the SEC and FTC has over businesses here in the U.S., I'd venture to guess how much different those FBI investigations may have (or yet) turned out. I say "may" because technically they are still supposedly in an ongoing investigation, but nobody knows or has heard of anything new being done in regard to those investigations for some time now.

I have touted here on the forum before how any of us card collectors can be one of three different things; a dealer, collector/hobbyist, or an investor, and how technically anyone can actually be all three at the exact same time. They just have to organize and keep their activities separate, and be sure to prepare and keep as accurate and complete records and data about their separate activities as possible for if/when any of the tax authorities may come calling with questions. I've explained the main different tax consequences/attributes that go with each of these three different types of card owners they can be. And I've seen you post once or twice mentioning the same thing about card collectors being one of these three types as well, so I know we agree on that. What hasn't to my knowledge been directly challenged in tax law going up against the IRS yet is if they will truly recognize that someone selling their baseball cards could strictly be nothing more than an investor. And therefore, when they sell a card they held strictly as an investment, any profit on that sale should be subject to the same maximum 20% federal tax rate on the LTCG, just like from the sales of other traditional investments, like stocks and bonds, and NOT be subject to the currently higher 28% maximum federal tax rate on LTCGs from the sale of a collectible, such as a baseball card. The other major difference is that if a card you sell is a true investment, and not just a collectible, any losses on the sale of an investment would be potentially deductible against other gains and taxable income, but losses as purely collectibles are absolutely not deductible at all, not even against other gains from selling other baseball cards. I'm waiting for one these deep-pocket collectors/investors to sell say a T206 Wagner card for a few million of profit, and then take on the IRS and claim the most they owe in federal taxes on the gain is only 20%, and not 28%. Until you get to a case with enough potential dollars involved, I don't see anyone wasting the time and expense to fight the IRS for maybe just a few hundred or a few thousand dollars. But I firmly believe the argument is valid, and there for someone to eventually act on.

And in response to others who had asked what is maybe the difference between a baseball card being a collectible item or being an investment item, though I couldn't/still can't give them an exact, perfect and irrefutable definition and answer, the simplest way I had/have to put and describe it to everyone was, a collectible is something you would put on a shelf or hang on the wall in your man cave or office to show off and tell others about, an investment is something you'd be more likely to keep in your bank safe deposit box or in one of these new vault services that have just in recent years started operating. So when you take an operation like a PWCC or Goldin that has and operates a vault service for their clientele, and they also offer related/combined services to buy and sell those items on behalf of their clientele, it certainly starts to sound/look very similar to what you do when you call or otherwise contact your investment/financial planner/advisor/broker and ask them to buy/sell some stocks or other investments for you, doesn't it?

And what is the old saying, if it swims like a duck, looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's a................................................. .....

[BobC]

Bingo! Compliance with securities laws is the way to legitimize the effort. Not skirt it, embrace it. If the fractional interest promoters can manage that, they have a chance at selling people on it not being a giant scam. If they act like the crypto bros, not so much.

Exactly right, and just think how that could also then apply to scrutiny and oversight of TPGs who review and opine on the sports cards and other items now being sold as investments. Just like the rules and regulations that CPAs who opine on the financial statements of publicly traded companies have to follow.

Like how a CPA cannot ever charge a contingent fee for any work or services they provide so they maintain their independence and do not have any potential bias or conflicts of interest, in both fact AND APPEARANCE! If that were similarly applied to TPGs, then they could technically only charge the exact same amount to grade a 1988 Gregg Jefferies rookie card as they would for grading a '52 Topps Mantle card, assuming they were providing the same exact service(s)/work. Now, how nice would that be that you are only charged for the actual work/services they perform, and not for what they can maybe get away with? Also, in the case of owners/employees of a TPG, they likely would never be allowed to have their own cards/items be graded or otherwise serviced by the same TPG they owned/worked for. For example, David Hall owned one of, if not the most celebrated T206 card collections of all time at one point, to my understanding. He also was behind the creation of, and at one time a major owner of, Collectors Universe I believe, which also (or at least did) own PSA as a wholly owned subsidiary. I wonder while still an owner who he may have had grading his T206 cards? Likewise, now that CU/PSA have been taken over by private ownership (and is no longer publicly traded), including by such as Nat Turner, I wonder who he has/would have do the work of grading any cards he may want to get graded now? That kind of thing happening would be a totally improper and unbelievably and absolutely biased conflict of interest occurrence and should never be (or have been) allowed to happen.

[Exhibitman]

One of the things I've noticed about crypto and meme stocks and card investing is how similarly the participants behave. There is an almost palpable sense of giving the middle finger to The Man in all of it, hence the hostility of the young towards mainstream investments like mutual funds. The card 'bros i see at shows would be right at home selling weed. Same style as the drug dealers who used to supply our highs in college. That makes it harder to promote an investment angle on cards. Too many players want to be 'playas', not investors, and stubbornly resist efforts to professionalize the hobby or make it look like a mainstream investment. So many collectors also like the sheer transgressiveness of buying and selling in cash in a field without much regulation. It gives them that "G's and keys" swagger to throw around cash, feel like a street guy, but with cards and without any real danger. Look at some of the linguistic stylings of the hobby: buyer's premium is "vig", cards are "product", etc. The fact that the authorities don't really seem to care actually is a selling point.

[joshuanip]

One of the things I've noticed about crypto and meme stocks and card investing is how similarly the participants behave. There is an almost palpable sense of giving the middle finger to The Man in all of it, hence the hostility of the young towards mainstream investments like mutual funds. The card 'bros i see at shows would be right at home selling weed. Same style as the drug dealers who used to supply our highs in college. That makes it harder to promote an investment angle on cards. Too many players want to be 'playas', not investors, and stubbornly resist efforts to professionalize the hobby or make it look like a mainstream investment. So many collectors also like the sheer transgressiveness of buying and selling in cash in a field without much regulation. It gives them that "G's and keys" swagger to throw around cash, feel like a street guy, but with cards and without any real danger. Look at some of the linguistic stylings of the hobby: buyer's premium is "vig", cards are "product", etc. The fact that the authorities don't really seem to care actually is a selling point.

The Singer interview in the current WSJ is apt. Fed’s response to every crisis is to print money and the rise of crypto is a libertarian impulse for the disdain on the fed’s disrespect to fiat currency… article is bearish on crypto which I agree on, it root principles to crypto and art/cards are the same. An alternative store of value. But art and cards have another thing going for them, they can’t be produced in any more quantities that that exist out there. There will be “finds” but supply is pretty much set (sans e98 prior to bsf). And there is something tangible to the asset unlike “ether” assets.

Always thought and still think employment is the highest coefficient in card prices (as it affects demand (by people’s wherewithal) and supply (as people need to sell to fund cost of living). And with that metric we’re doing pretty good.

Of course there’s asset beta, which is what we are feeling today, as people “trade” based on how far cards appreciated and where they think cards will go. But as a long term driver, it’s hard to argue against the initial point as to why cards are a good store of value in a diversified asset portfolio.

[Exhibitman]

The Singer interview in the current WSJ is apt. Fed’s response to every crisis is to print money and the rise of crypto is a libertarian impulse for the disdain on the fed’s disrespect to fiat currency… article is bearish on crypto which I agree on, it root principles to crypto and art/cards are the same. An alternative store of value. But art and cards have another thing going for them, they can’t be produced in any more quantities that that exist out there. There will be “finds” but supply is pretty much set (sans e98 prior to bsf). And there is something tangible to the asset unlike “ether” assets.

Always thought and still think employment is the highest coefficient in card prices (as it affects demand (by people’s wherewithal) and supply (as people need to sell to fund cost of living). And with that metric we’re doing pretty good.

Of course there’s asset beta, which is what we are feeling today, as people “trade” based on how far cards appreciated and where they think cards will go. But as a long term driver, it’s hard to argue against the initial point as to why cards are a good store of value in a diversified asset portfolio.

It is hard to argue against alternative value stores in inflationary times. Whether it is a store or a scam is the question and at least with a card (or gold or real estate) there is something tangible, as long as you actually have possession of it. The rest is just speculating on the potential gains of one asset versus another over time. For example, I wouldn't have wanted to invest in New York City commercial real estate in 2019. It may be tangible but remote working has made a disaster of it. I'll say one thing for cards in particular:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/miscellaneous5/websize/1952%20Bowman%20Mantle.jpeg

They're a lot prettier to look at than a deed.

[Rhotchkiss]

Over/Under on the PSA 1955 Koufax in Goldin was set at $345k.

We are at $258k w/ BP on the one in REA, with 4 days left.

I took the under, but doubting that a little

[MACollector]

A Paige mint 9 just sold for $211k at Mile High. A stones throw away from the last sale of $228k which was the only post-pandemic sale and up 7x from the last time one sold in 2018! So the super high end rare stuff is certainly strong. The less rare stuff not so much it seems. I noticed the Seaver rookie for instance still is well off it’s highs from the past few year as one example of a card that while isn’t rare with around 100 mint example, still doesn’t come up every other auction.

[JackR]

Thanks, Ryan. I’d like to participate, but it’s too painful. In the mid 90’s, I had a chance to buy one for $1,800 (“2 x High Beckett”)… AND I PASSED!

[rjackson44]

Over/Under on the PSA 1955 Koufax in REA was set at $345k.

We are at $258k w/ BP, with 4 days left.

I took the under, but doubting that a little

hi whos buying these cards hedge funds,high end collectors ,,who lol..i just bought a 48 leaf joe gordon almost had a heart attack.

[Johnny630]

hi whos buying these cards hedge funds,high end collectors ,,who lol..i just bought a 48 leaf joe gordon almost had a heart attack.

They seem to change hands like musical chairs from auction house to auction house.

[rjackson44]

They seem to change hands like musical chairs from auction house to auction house.
hi johnny your correct about that and the new stuff trades at huge loses

[Johnny630]

hi johnny your correct about that and the new stuff trades at huge loses

Agree 100% Rjackson
So is some, key word some of the vintage… 52 Mays PSA 8 and 52 Jackie PSA 8 well off their highs. A couple ended last night

[raulus]

Agree 100% Rjackson
So is some, key word some of the vintage… 52 Mays PSA 8 and 52 Jackie PSA 8 well off their highs. A couple ended last night

Well, when it comes to that 52T Mays PSA 8, the centering/tilt acolytes will rant all day long about how it was sketchy in that regard. Plus it was an early cert, so there's that taint as well. In any event, $160K is still about 5x what it would have sold for pre-pandemic. But it is nice that it's no longer 8x or 10x!

http://milehighcardco.com/1952_Topps__261_Willie_Mays_PSA_8_NM_MT-LOT92067.aspx

[Rhotchkiss]

Thanks, Ryan. I’d like to participate, but it’s too painful. In the mid 90’s, I had a chance to buy one for $1,800 (“2 x High Beckett”)… AND I PASSED!

Jack, Ugh. I bet that would have a gone a long way toward the day payment on a super nice condo outside Nashville :)

Octavio, I imagine that 99% of the people seeking to buy a card like this, view the card as an asset/investment. Perhaps it is a speculator or Fund of sorts, who simply looks at the card as a commodity. Or, it could be someone, like me, who loves cards and really enjoys owning them, but is really looking at cards as a separate form of investment/asset. For example, Ken Kendrick probably bought the Gretzky Wagner bc he thought it would be awesome to own, but you know he 100% bought it expecting to make money and thinking it was a great place to invest $5mm (or whatever it sold for). Bottom line, the buyer is buying it for investment.

[Exhibitman]

I noticed the Seaver rookie for instance still is well off it’s highs from the past few year as one example of a card that while isn’t rare with around 100 mint example, still doesn’t come up every other auction.

One thing I've thought about is whether being on a multiiplayer RC hurts value. Just seems that quite a few of the "gee, that should cost more" postwar rookies are multiplayer cards.

[MACollector]

It certainly hasn't hurt the Ryan rookie being a multiplayer card....

[bobbyw8469]

Robert Edwards has a Koufax PSA 9 ending tomorrow. Let's see where that one ends.

[Snowman]

I actually built a multivariate statistical model to measure the effects of a player's RC being a multi player card, which also measured the effects of their 2nd year card being their first solo card (and not, for those with solo RCs), and the effects of having the rookie cup on the card. The data I collected took all HOFers first 3 years of Topps cards (excluding 52 & 53) and their relative prices in similar grade/value ranges.

I'd have to dig to find it, but I seem to recall that having a multi player RC made it worth something like 30% less on average than it would have been were it to be a solo RC. And that having a 2nd year card with a rookie cup or trophy being a player's first solo card made it worth something like 20% more than it would have otherwise been were that not the case.

[Republicaninmass]

It certainly hasn't hurt the Ryan rookie being a multiplayer card....

Also, they have been many huge finds of High grade 1968 topps. That also must weigh on prices

[jsfriedm]

And the REA Koufax is officially over 345K. We have a winner!

[Rhotchkiss]

And the REA Koufax is officially over 345K. We have a winner!

Ha, I was just checking that! Now, the over/under was technically on the Goldin 9, which has not yet come to auction (it was in a preview that came out before we knew REA has a 9).

The over/under was $345k and its currently at $384k :eek:

[theshowandme]

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s


On the second bet I’m going REA because it was first


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rhotchkiss]

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

[cgjackson222]

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

I'm going to go with that the results in REA were really strong last night, and that your estimates were accurate. I really wanted that Wagner PC976 (https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=139203)Sepia postcard, but the price was just too high.

[parkplace33]

I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=139372

[Johnny630]

I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=139372

Was it Paying crazy for just the front of the card or Maybe someone on the DL who can re-back the card and get it through, with a 6 or who better. Who knows trust nothing you hear and only half of what you see.

[jsfriedm]

It seems that people are finally getting what they've been asking for: "buy the card, not the grade." That seems to be what happened here, as it did last month when an SGC 2 Leaf Ted Williams with serious back damage went for over $20K. The people who bought it made multiple social media posts defending their purchase.

[trambo]

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see


Your 10% advice came in handy last night at REA. There were 2-t205 upgrades for my set, one of which was something I never thought I'd upgrade. I thought I was out and then remembered our discussion in Chantilly a year or so ago when you said that if it was within 10%, it was a good idea to just get it since that kind of thing likely never comes up for auction. So I placed one more bid which fell within 10% of my number and won it. You can likely guess the card as I don't have many t205s I can even find to upgrade!

On your original comment, I missed on the under but as you've said, the Goldin Koufax was the question. It will be interesting to see how they compare. I have no idea which is stronger or if they're the same but I take the under there. We'll see!!

[Exhibitman]

Ryan, I do the same thing, but not as detailed as yours. just to give me an idea on trends. Some are up, some are down, my overall list is off about 10% from its peak but at 279% of what it was pre-pandemic. The twist with mine is that I track lower grades.

FWIW, the lots I tracked in REA finished quite strong. $4560 for a 1947 Bond Bread Robinson in a 1 is a nice price. A 2 sold for less last December. Lower grade 1952 T Mantle cards did well too. A PSA 2 went for $45,600 and an SGC 2 with lousy centering was $33,600.

[JimC]

I did notice a couple high end cards that were way off their highs. The PSA 9 Topps Jackie and the 24 Aguilitas Oscar Charleston both went for considerably less than 2021/2022 sales of comparable cards.

[Leon]

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

[Casey2296]

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

My thoughts too Leon,
That video really opened my eyes, I’m now starting to look at pew-war 6’s with a jaundiced eye.

[hcv123]

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

Which video are you talking about?

[theshowandme]

Which video are you talking about?


See thread titled “Card Doctoring Video”

Former NFL player and suspected trimmer Evan Mathis confirmed it to the world by posting a 5 minute how to guide on TikTok… he then poked fun at Collectors/PSA owner Nat Turner saying that is how all his high grade cards got their grades… he did this with a paper cutter, wax paper, engineers ruler, file board, loupe, and the blunt end of an xacto knife type pen thing. Trimming on a budget

That paragraph is real, I wish I was trolling…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JimC]

Ryan, I thought the Collins Hornsby did very well. Strong price for a seldom seen card from a relatively obscure set.

The Wagner candy cards have to be the stars of this round of auctions so far though. Those Memory Lane prices looked very strong to me.

[Leon]

Ryan, I thought the Collins Hornsby did very well. Strong price for a seldom seen card from a relatively obscure set.

The Wagner candy cards have to be the stars of this round of auctions so far though. Those Memory Lane prices looked very strong to me.

+1. I was surprised on the Collins Hornsby too. 54k is a good chunk of money..
.

[Rhotchkiss]

Very strong price. I do think the card is worth that- I think it’s been a very undervalued card for a while and is now getting its due. That said, most of the pricing in memory lane was super strong indicating strength (and a testament to memory lane).

[theshowandme]

Another one coming to REA next week

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230722/a8d7f9bca2949fef180a53085013188f.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Yoda]

If the market does crash and the value of our cards plummets, the true collectors will still have their cards and with that comes the love of our favorite players, their times and even the game itself. Let's not forget the game.

[Exhibitman]

If the market does crash and the value of our cards plummets, the true collectors will still have their cards and with that comes the love of our favorite players, their times and even the game itself. Let's not forget the game.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/dropins/websize/The%20Precious%20cards.jpg

[Rhotchkiss]

I went back to my initial post and the PSA 9 introduced in that still has not yet gone on sale- It was a preview and the auction starts July 27th!

But since I started the thread, a PSA 9 Koufax did sell in REA (April) for $384k, which was well over the $345k over/under I set and, as you can see from the updated VCP info posted below, is on par with sales in 2022.

[raulus]

I went back to my initial post and the PSA 9 introduced in that still has not yet gone on sale- It was a preview and the auction starts July 27th!

But since I started the thread, a PSA 9 Koufax did sell in REA (April) for $384k, which was well over the $345k over/under I set and, as you can see from the updated VCP info posted below, is on par with sales in 2022.

Ryan - ready to make an updated call? $450k?

[Rhotchkiss]

Ryan - ready to make an updated call? $450k?

I think we should increase the line. How about $470k

Regarding state of the market/hobby/industry- I woke up this morning, realized Heritage was open, and I placed 39 different initial/placeholder bids totaling just over $2.9mm with buyers premium. I fully expect none of those bids to win. In fact, I expect that by mid week, I will have $0 at rush and 0 high bids. (Keep in mind, it’s easy to get to $2.9mm when you place $300k bids on cards that will likely sell for $500k+). I don’t know if that means that the hobby is healthy economically or there is just a ton of great stuff now for sale, or both.

[raulus]

I don’t know if that means that the hobby is healthy economically or there is just a ton of great stuff now for sale, or both.

Certainly plenty of people with way too much money running around and buying stuff. Not sure how to interpret that phenomenon in terms of what it means for the market/hobby, except it sure is a nice time to be selling high quality stuff.

And I suspect the auction houses won’t complain!

[theshowandme]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230818/340236c411f0932d6a6742ea36bacf00.jpg

[raulus]

Looks like the bidding is up to $170k so far ($204k with the juice), with 26 days left.

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-123-sandy-koufax-rookie-card-psa-mint-9ka38t

[Rhotchkiss]

BTW- reading my post above, I was sarcastic with the $470k. But the REA sale shows, at the least, that PSA 9 Koufax’s are doing just fine.

And based on the stuff I was watching, and the one card I won, in REA, prewar seems to be just fine as well. Heritage ends this weekend, then LOTG and memory lane (mile high hasn’t even opened). So many amazing offerings and it appears strong prices persist. As a buyer, it’s a little surprising and quite annoying!

[raulus]

Final answer: $288k. Kind of a let down..

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-123-sandy-koufax-rookie-card-psa-mint-9ka38t

[MACollector]

So was the Aaron at $480k!

[Rhotchkiss]

Final answer: $288k. Kind of a let down..

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-123-sandy-koufax-rookie-card-psa-mint-9ka38t

Interesting. I had no idea the auction ended. A let down indeed. $288k is by FAR the lowest that card has sold for in the past 3 years (5 other sales)- 20% less the next lowest sale. I wonder whether it’s a canary in the coal mine for other high grade commodity cards or whether some other factor was at work.

[Exhibitman]

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

But I digress.

Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?

[ullmandds]

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

But I digress.

Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?

agreed!

[raulus]

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.


I mean, if we're questioning our own sanity, there's probably a good reason.

And obviously $288k is only disappointing in the context that the last fistful went for $360-$400k. In isolation, getting that much bread for a single piece is certainly a nice haul.

[Rhotchkiss]

Adam, I myself am wondering whether the auction house has anything to do with the relatively/comparatively weak result. Of the 5 prior sales that range from $369k - $396k, two were REA and two Heritage, with the fifth being the oldest, on 5/23/21, in Goldin for $369k.

Personally, I have no issue with Ken or his AH and I have bought a number of stuff from his auction house when it was a smaller outfit. However, I don't think I have bought anything from Goldin since they were acquired by PSA, and, at this point, I dont even really follow their auctions. To me, Goldin, like PWCC, has become an almost purely modern venue and I dont feel like wading through pages of RPAs looking for a singular pre-war needle in the haystack. Plus, like PWCC, I am not a fan of the auction interface, which I find difficult to use and not intuitive. I am not a bidder on a 1955 Koufax PSA 9, regardless of whether its in Goldin or REA, but perhaps others did not notice/partake in the auction for similar reasons stated above.

[raulus]

Adam, I myself am wondering whether the auction house has anything to do with the relatively/comparatively weak result. Of the 5 prior sales that range from $369k - $396k, two were REA and two Heritage, with the fifth being the oldest, on 5/23/21, in Goldin for $369k.

Personally, I have no issue with Ken or his AH and I have bought a number of stuff from his auction house when it was a smaller outfit. However, I don't think I have bought anything from Goldin since they were acquired by PSA, and, at this point, I dont even really follow their auctions. To me, Goldin, like PWCC, has become an almost purely modern venue and I dont feel like wading through pages of RPAs looking for a singular pre-war needle in the haystack. Plus, like PWCC, I am not a fan of the auction interface, which I find difficult to use and not intuitive. I am not a bidder on a 1955 Koufax PSA 9, regardless of whether its in Goldin or REA, but perhaps others did not notice/partake in the auction for similar reasons stated above.

It's an interesting concept. Just pondering a little bit myself, let's say there was a high grade mainline piece for a major HOFer that I was coveting, and had a war chest lying around to chase it. Along it comes in auction, and there's a chance to pick it up for 20% off the last sale.

I'm not convinced that I'd let a clunky interface or the need to do a little more homework to find it get in my way. If anything, I might be inclined to lean into those as a competitive advantage, especially if it prevents the competition from bidding as heavily, or even finding the auction.

And I think the market has long ago given us enough signals that for 99.999% of collectors, we're not about to let our moral code stand in the way of picking up high quality stuff, particularly at a good deal.

All of which is a long way of saying that I have a hard time believing those were the likely answer. I tend to be more of a believer that there was probably one more potential bidder out there who decided to not go nuts this time. He's feeling tapped out, maybe his dog just died, or he lost a bundle on some lame SPAC investment, had a mild heart attack, or his wife just filed for divorce and is suing for the collection and the house. Or maybe he just had a conflict that night with the Met Gala. For whatever reason, he dropped out of the bidding earlier, and therefore the price pooped out a few bids earlier than the last handful of auctions.

Whenever we talk about our moral code and its potential influence on certain auction houses, it brings to mind a joke from the economist joke book, which I've told here before, but will recount again, because it seems apropos in light of our sometimes flexible moral code. Apologies that it's a little salty, but the saltiness helps to convey the message.

An economist walks up to a woman and asks if she would sleep with him for $1 million.

She responds that she supposes that she would.

Whereupon the economist asks if she would sleep with him for $100.

To which she retorts, "What kind of a woman do you think I am?"

The economist wryly observes, "Madam, we have already established that. Now we are just negotiating on price."

[Republicaninmass]

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.



Exactly, at some point the common man has to say "I can sell and buy what????" Although the people buying may have a condo or two in Kona

[jsfriedm]

As far as the really high end, I don't think this was an isolated incident. In Heritage's August auction, they had a 1952 Topps Mantle SGC 9 for which they had an estimate of $6 million+. They started the bidding at 2 mil, and three days before closing it had only reached 2.35, when they posted a 4.5 million reserve. Half an hour before the end of the auction they suddenly reduced the reserve to 3.75 and got one bid, so they could say it sold, for 4.5 million. In the same auction, they had a 1933 Goudey Ruth 144 PSA 8.5 with an estimated value of 1.5 mil+ that barely made it to 1 million. I do think there are signs of softness at the high end.

[raulus]

As far as the really high end, I don't think this was an isolated incident. In Heritage's August auction, they had a 1952 Topps Mantle SGC 9 for which they had an estimate of $6 million+. They started the bidding at 2 mil, and three days before closing it had only reached 2.35, when they posted a 4.5 million reserve. Half an hour before the end of the auction they suddenly reduced the reserve to 3.75 and got one bid, so they could say it sold, for 4.5 million. In the same auction, they had a 1933 Goudey Ruth 144 PSA 8.5 with an estimated value of 1.5 mil+ that barely made it to 1 million. I do think there are signs of softness at the high end.

Those are some fun data points.

I think for those of us that are chasing a lot of high end stuff, there's sometimes a bit of confirmation bias. We're chasing some nice stuff down (even just tracking it for market research purposes), and it always seems to sell for a crazy price. We see a few other pieces that go to the moon, and our lazy minds just assume that everything at the top end is going for all-time highs. If we see something that sells for less than the last few comps, we discount it as an aberration.

Obviously the data points you highlighted help to paint a more nuanced picture.

[Rhotchkiss]

I agree the AH likely had little to do with the pricing. I also think the Mantle and Ruth examples above indicate that there is some softening for high-end commodity cards, which I think makes sense. I also think it may something to do with the fact that this was the 5th PSA 9 to trade in two years, 3 of which have sold in the last 6 months, adding validity to the theory that the "other bidder" wasn't there on this one to push the price to nearly $400k. Or perhaps that extra 1-2 bidders were not there because its much more attractive to have cash like that liquid, earning 5%, than in cardboard that may be sitting at top-of-the-market values.

Personally, I think its all of the above, but mainly I think we are seeing a sensible repricing on commodity-cards, which I note, tend to still be well above where things were before the pandemic (thus Adam's point).

[skelly423]

Deleted

[puckpaul]

It's an interesting concept. Just pondering a little bit myself, let's say there was a high grade mainline piece for a major HOFer that I was coveting, and had a war chest lying around to chase it. Along it comes in auction, and there's a chance to pick it up for 20% off the last sale.

I'm not convinced that I'd let a clunky interface or the need to do a little more homework to find it get in my way. If anything, I might be inclined to lean into those as a competitive advantage, especially if it prevents the competition from bidding as heavily, or even finding the auction.

And I think the market has long ago given us enough signals that for 99.999% of collectors, we're not about to let our moral code stand in the way of picking up high quality stuff, particularly at a good deal.

All of which is a long way of saying that I have a hard time believing those were the likely answer. I tend to be more of a believer that there was probably one more potential bidder out there who decided to not go nuts this time. He's feeling tapped out, maybe his dog just died, or he lost a bundle on some lame SPAC investment, had a mild heart attack, or his wife just filed for divorce and is suing for the collection and the house. Or maybe he just had a conflict that night with the Met Gala. For whatever reason, he dropped out of the bidding earlier, and therefore the price pooped out a few bids earlier than the last handful of auctions.

Whenever we talk about our moral code and its potential influence on certain auction houses, it brings to mind a joke from the economist joke book, which I've told here before, but will recount again, because it seems apropos in light of our sometimes flexible moral code. Apologies that it's a little salty, but the saltiness helps to convey the message.

An economist walks up to a woman and asks if she would sleep with him for $1 million.

She responds that she supposes that she would.

Whereupon the economist asks if she would sleep with him for $100.

To which she retorts, "What kind of a woman do you think I am?"

The economist wryly observes, "Madam, we have already established that. Now we are just negotiating on price."

I disagree, if you dont like or trust an auction house, and you would spend that kind of money on a Koufax rookie i think it’s very plausible that you would look elsewhere. It’s not like it’s that scarce a card.

[raulus]

I disagree, if you dont like or trust an auction house, and you would spend that kind of money on a Koufax rookie i think it’s very plausible that you would look elsewhere. It’s not like it’s that scarce a card.

What if you could get it for 20% off?

Or 50% off?

Is there no discount at which you would decide you’re ready to buy?

I suspect most of the group has their price at which they would bite.

[Lorewalker]

Not sure we will ever know why this one sold for less but it might be nothing more than everyone who could afford to pay more than 288K had no interest in adding a 55 Koufax to their collection. Might be a case were a straight for sale would have maintained the previous price point. Still a good price overall just not great news to those who recently paid more but this is what happens when you have skin in the game. I rather have a 55 Koufax 9 at 460 than an 86 Jordan 10 at 700.

Whenever I reflect on our hobby and try to figure out what something is worth the overly obvious phrase, it is worth what someone is willing to pay for it, pops into my head.

One thing we do know is that there are far more buyers for a 55 Koufax PSA 5 than there are a 55 Koufax PSA 9.

[Exhibitman]

I've always maintained that for postwar mainstream cards, condition rarity is a risky bet, especially where the numbers are so large that only 0.01% of collectors are the market.

[puckpaul]

What if you could get it for 20% off?

Or 50% off?

Is there no discount at which you would decide you’re ready to buy?

I suspect most of the group has their price at which they would bite.

Maybe…But i don’t scour pwcc for bargains, i just dont participate there. I have never trusted certain Auction houses mentioned, so, no, it’s not worth my time to monitor their auctions. All you need are a few participants to opt out and prices can disappoint.

[Touch'EmAll]

Who might be in the market for such a spendy card ? Not many to begin with, then consider 5 other sales in the last 3 years. Now we have less than not many who are honestly interested in shelling out big $ for such a card. Auction prices only go big when there are bidders who really want the item.

I followed the recent Memory Lane auction that had quite a few Hank Aaron's in PSA 8. The ending prices did seem a bit low all around - so yes, perhaps a softening of the post-war vintage market. Although most were not near perfectly centered, could have something to do with it.

Finally, the centering on the '55 Koufax - left/right ok, but top/bottom was 40/60 ish. More and more with post-war vintage the big prices now only come with near perfect centering. And with such an iconic card as the Koufax rookie, most I bet would want better than 40/60 to seriously consider shelling out for a PSA 9.

Now the prices this year for nice Ruth, Cobb & Wagner have been strong. They are more scarce than anything post-war vintage. In fact, with all the auctions already this year, hard to consider even the blue chip post-war cards scarce - I see so many continually offered. For instance, there have been many '54 Aaron's offered for sale/auction this year - there is a lot out there, more than I thought a few years ago.

Go Pre-War big names !

[Leon]

Interesting take. Centering has continued to gather steam as a very important price determinant.

Who might be in the market for such a spendy card ? Not many to begin with, then consider 5 other sales in the last 3 years. Now we have less than not many who are honestly interested in shelling out big $ for such a card. Auction prices only go big when there are bidders who really want the item.

I followed the recent Memory Lane auction that had quite a few Hank Aaron's in PSA 8. The ending prices did seem a bit low all around - so yes, perhaps a softening of the post-war vintage market. Although most were not near perfectly centered, could have something to do with it.

Finally, the centering on the '55 Koufax - left/right ok, but top/bottom was 40/60 ish. More and more with post-war vintage the big prices now only come with near perfect centering. And with such an iconic card as the Koufax rookie, most I bet would want better than 40/60 to seriously consider shelling out for a PSA 9.

Now the prices this year for nice Ruth, Cobb & Wagner have been strong. They are more scarce than anything post-war vintage. In fact, with all the auctions already this year, hard to consider even the blue chip post-war cards scarce - I see so many continually offered. For instance, there have been many '54 Aaron's offered for sale/auction this year - there is a lot out there, more than I thought a few years ago.

Go Pre-War big names !

[etsmith]

I also think part of the Goldin pricing was due to the actual condition of the card, as someone else pointed out the card appears like it may have some issues.