Under The Radar Basketball Cards (investment)

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Basketball memorabilia has been on an incredible run, and rightly so, given the amazing players in the game today! But are there any investment opportunities left? Where is the "smart money" going? I submit to the board that there are still some pockets of opportunity. May I mention one for your review please?

Is ultra-modern the place to spend? No, it's far too speculative, with more busts than stars, by far. How about early vintage (48B, 57T, 61F)? Likely not, as its still experiencing a "boom period" and priced out right now. What about the standard set for the hobby- 1986 Fleer Basketball? Perhaps in the mid-high graded card sector (7/8), but generally most feel it will be tough to sustain current prices for the long haul.

Here's a small set, really a subset, worthy of consideration: 1987-88 Fleer Stickers! Hear me out... consider these reasons:

1-Nine of the 11 cards portray in-game shots of renown Hall of Famers like Bird, Magic, Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, etc, while in their prime!
2-High grade cards are very difficult to come by. A graded 9 set would be very elusive and a gem mint 10 set extremely difficult to obtain, because of the small population.
3-The cards are condition sensitive, the preponderance being diamond cut with well known left-to-right centering problems.
4-There are many raw copies of this 35 yr old set available for sale, however, the population has diminished some because many collectors used these colorful stickers as intended and peeled and stuck them to something!
5-The most important card, the second year Michael Jordan sticker, portrays him with hair and in his early Bulls uniform! An amazing card that can be purchased graded 7 for around $200!
6-The entire set is a comparative bargain when looking at other cards from the mid-1980's, an era when basketball spread internationally and the players became celebrities.

I recommend putting together a set in Ex-Mint 6 or higher condition. An exmt set would be quite affordable, a higher grade set viewed as more of an investment. Below are some examples.

Anyone else agree/disagree? Other values out there?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I like them but not seeing the "investment" angle. Rare early vintage cards, or rookie cards, might have investment potential. A common set of stickers? Not IMO.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

I like them but not seeing the "investment" angle. Rare early vintage cards, or rookie cards, might have investment potential. A common set of stickers? Not IMO.

Thanks for the reply Peter. That’s really the point: to find reasonably priced cards that are off the radar of some, i.e. not big rookies or vintage stars, both of which are priced out. Looking for items that are obtainable with room to grow.

[Exhibitman]

I think early cards and memorabilia of superstars from that long gap between actual card sets is a good buy right now. I've been salting away unusual regional cards, team issue cards, and related items for years. Thing is, they are so hard to find that you cannot amass a really large group. Also what makes them fun. This is a 1960 Boston TI:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1960-61%20Russell%20team%20issue.jpg

Photos are a good area too, though they have been on fire lately. I just consigned some Russell-Chamberlain early photos that i've been holding for years. This one I hung on to, it is a favorite. 1961:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1961%20photo%20Chamberlain%20Russell%20Cousy.jpg

[Copa7]

These old photos are great. I just acquired some 1920's cabinet cards of early pro and amateur basketball teams.
Checked with National Basketball Hall of Fame and they didn't even have these pioneer Hall of Fame players.

[Exhibitman]

I've also started looking at schedules and team issued mailers, like these 1950s Knicks schedule cards:

1951:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1951%20Knicks%20schedule%20card%201.jpg
https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1951%20Knicks%20schedule%20card%202.jpg

1952:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1952%20Knicks%20schedule%20card%201.jpg
https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1952%20Knicks%20schedule%20card%202.jpg

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

I think early cards and memorabilia of superstars from that long gap between actual card sets is a good buy right now. I've been salting away unusual regional cards, team issue cards, and related items for years. Thing is, they are so hard to find that you cannot amass a really large group. Also what makes them fun. This is a 1960 Boston TI:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1960-61%20Russell%20team%20issue.jpg

Photos are a good area too, though they have been on fire lately. I just consigned some Russell-Chamberlain early photos that i've been holding for years. This one I hung on to, it is a favorite. 1961:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/basketball/websize/1961%20photo%20Chamberlain%20Russell%20Cousy.jpg

Adam, great points: regional issues and early photo's seem like an opportunity as some are still fairly priced. Thanks for sharing, love that Russell! Wasn't that used on the 1968 Topps Test Series? ... actually just checked, no this is a different image... wow its fantastic though!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Thanks for the reply Peter. That’s really the point: to find reasonably priced cards that are off the radar of some, i.e. not big rookies or vintage stars, both of which are priced out. Looking for items that are obtainable with room to grow.

I understand the point; mine is that IMO a common set of stickers with no rookies does not have a lot of room to grow. But who knows.

[shagrotn77]

I remember those stickers being brutal right out of the pack. Very poor cuts.

[chalupacollects]

Maybe higher grade examples of mid career stars and HOFers....

[Gorditadogg]

I like the stickers, even though they aren't scarce, it sounds like high-grade and centered cards could become more desirable, and there are not a lot of cards anyway of the old NBA stars. And I also like the idea of picking out oddball vintage items, especially in the years without Topps or Fleer issues.

My strategy has always been to buy some of everything and see what happens. I doubt it's the best way to accumulate value but hey, it is the most inclusive.

[Republicaninmass]

Stickers..one per pack. Supposed to be stuck to stuff. Makes sense they'd be desirable in the future

[hauntedcomputer]

To me future "investment" (an iffy word to use in connection with a hobby) will depend on which way newer ultramodern collectors go after getting burned badly on overpriced, overproduced slabs.

Will they go a tier down into 90s inserts, or into the 80s? I would guess Star cards really have good potential in that scenario, but with far too many speculative factors involved (Will PSA ever grade them? Will they ever get mainstream attention? Will AI grading ever be able to accurately detect fake Jordans?). Compared to the 80s stickers, the pops of Star cards are relatively stable and known and rare. Most importantly, those are what I call "gap year" cards that cover some of the greatest. 87 set further hurt by lack of rookies that drive set values and collector appeal.

Or will modern collectors recognize the tremendously rare-in-comparison cards of 48, 57 and 61, players they may know little about? Or will they see 70s basketball as undervalued like I do, but I think their value growth has been pushed forward too much over the past couple of years and basically most cards will be waiting for the next generational boom in 20-30 years.

Probably some of each, but my guess is most will leave the hobby like they did in the 90s crash. So my strategy is to only buy what I like and only spend what I can afford to lose completely. If the market vanishes, I still have what I like and don't have to guess.

Good luck!

[Exhibitman]

The other thing I won't do (and I am a broken record on this but here goes) is rely on condition rarity for long term value. The odds of PSA finding more 10s and 9s of modern mainstream cards among the millions submitted every year are a lot better than the odds of suddenly finding more of the items like those I've scanned. I know, because I am chasing the damned things. That makes modern cards an inherently riskier bet. I actually like the prospects of the Star true RCs better than most modern precisely because the print runs were a tiny fraction of the mainstream cards. I know, demand factors into it, but that would indicate lack of undervaluation.

The above notwithstanding certain marquee cards that are readily available but that have lives of their own as cornerstones of a collection: 1986 Fleer Jordan, 1979 Topps Magic-Bird, 1969 Topps Alcindor, 1961 Fleer Chamberlain, 1957 Topps Russell, 1948 Bowman Mikan. There's probably a LeBron that qualifies but I don't know enough about that era's issues to state which it is.

[JustinD]

The other thing I won't do (and I am a broken record on this but here goes) is rely on condition rarity for long term value. The odds of PSA finding more 10s and 9s of modern mainstream cards among the millions submitted every year are a lot better than the odds of suddenly finding more of the items like those I've scanned. I know, because I am chasing the damned things. That makes modern cards an inherently riskier bet. I actually like the prospects of the Star true RCs better than most modern precisely because the print runs were a tiny fraction of the mainstream cards. I know, demand factors into it, but that would indicate lack of undervaluation.

As per usual stellar advice from Adam in this thread for you.

I would second that early material seems to be undervalued in my mind if you look for auction formats and avoid the high BINs out there. With my son we focus heavily in 61' fleer and prior releases as the supply is somewhat finite. I have tons of pre-50s programs and historical material as it is underappreciated but tons of fun. The 61's and 48's are certainly lower in my perception in the past 8 months or so as the new money has focused on new rookies and releases. Much of that market is falling apart at the seams with even a slightly critical eye as several cases of mass submitters going bankrupt as those sending cards have stopped paying for useless stacks of psa cards now coming back worth a fraction of the grading fees.

The 500 dollar Zion of a year ago is 75, Ja cards are dropping not to lack of talent but saturation. At one point the highest submission at PSA was speculators sending 88 through 90 Jordan's. For example, there are now 33,035 graded 90 fleer Jordans and growing ... in my mind completely worthless. It's a 5 dollar wax box, like hoops and the rest. 1989 - 15,944, in perspective there are only 35,585 1989 Fleer cards graded. That is 44% of the population of the entire set! 1988 - 18,012, 1987 - 15,252...and the beat goes on.

Take those numbers and conservatively double them for graded examples done by Beckett, CSG, SGC, and the others.

Now leaning into the discussion at hand on 87' fleer stickers, 18,422 total graded cards at PSA. Likely at least another 10k with the competition. Admittedly very small populations of 10's due to QC, but in my mind the 9's are not that rare looking at demand.

Which is more likely? That the oversaturation of these sets continues to make waves in a negative way and the realization is that those years are deservedly not special and values plummet as the Millennials can't flip them anymore. Or...that the collapse of that market leads to huge growth in a subsection of sticker inserts?

You can do as you wish, however you used the dreaded "investment" word that pulls in a critical analysis. My thoughts looking at the numbers that continue to grow daily and the waning base...those late 80's-90's sets are paddling on the edge of a very big whirlpool.

Again do what you want, but the word "investment" is never used in my hobby thoughts because then I lose the fun and start buying crap I don't even like.

[Exhibitman]

Again do what you want, but the word "investment" is never used in my hobby thoughts because then I lose the fun and start buying crap I don't even like.

That's a very good point. I only buy what I enjoy. Probably why I don't have boxes of unopened 1986-88 Fleer sitting in a closet, because I remember them being blown out at shows when they were last year's wax. But hey, who wants to be rich, right?

Also true that invoking the "i" word kills the love and inserts the profiteering analysis in its place.

As your examples indicate, modern is incredibly volatile. If you can put away a small stack of the phenom of the year on the cheap, that's a sound play with minimal risk, but paying thousands in the hopes that the next MJ is there, that's a fool's errand.

[Dandor]

Thanks for the reply Peter. That’s really the point: to find reasonably priced cards that are off the radar of some, i.e. not big rookies or vintage stars, both of which are priced out. Looking for items that are obtainable with room to grow.

For me these stickers are blah and I don't think they have any growth potential. I actually think some of the HOF rookies are much better buys from the 1969 Topps set until the 1981 Topps set. I also hate modern cards, but some of the insert sets from 2013 to 2016 Panini are really rare and undervalued as well. Here are some suggestions on cards that could be off the radar.


HOF on card autos - I know some players sign a lot, but a lot don't. Some of the current Panini on card autos are gorgeous!
1996 Topps 50th Anniversary - Rarer than Topps Chrome and priced much lower. Plus these cards won't hulk. You can get HOF rookies like Allen, Kobe, Iverson, Nash for really decent prices.
I am starting to put together some 1990's insert sets and refractors for HOF players. I am putting together the 1992 Beam Team set right now. A lot of junk wax collectors are still coming into the hobby and these are the cards of their past.


At this point the market is what it is and finding undervalued cards is pretty much impossible. Everything has been pumped at one point.

[Jewish-collector]

A good investment will be autographs of the really big names before they're gone, because as my friend once said about deceased players, "He doesn't sign any longer" :eek:

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

For me these stickers are blah and I don't think they have any growth potential. I actually think some of the HOF rookies are much better buys from the 1969 Topps set until the 1981 Topps set. I also hate modern cards, but some of the insert sets from 2013 to 2016 Panini are really rare and undervalued as well. Here are some suggestions on cards that could be off the radar.

[LIST=1]
HOF on card autos - I know some players sign a lot, but a lot don't. Some of the current Panini on card autos are gorgeous!
1996 Topps 50th Anniversary - Rarer than Topps Chrome and priced much lower. Plus these cards won't hulk. You can get HOF rookies like Allen, Kobe, Iverson, Nash for really decent prices.

I also think the 1996-97 cards have room to grow: 4 modern players in the Top75 of all time!