Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[Jetsfan]

Just curious what people on the site have been thinking with the recent significant rise in prices for most cards. Given that this appears to involve many cards across the collecting spectrum, seems less likely to relate to any “buyers group.” This, at least in part, seems to be related to people staying home related to COVID-19 and looking for something to do (just my guess). Of course no one can predict the future, but just wondering if any people are holding off on buying right now, to wait and see if things return to some degree of “normalcy” after the COVID situation has become more manageable (vaccine, better therapies, etc.).

Obviously, not all of us are waiting on the sidelines, as someone is causing this spike in prices!

Thanks everyone, and my apologies if this was discussed in another post recently.

Adam

[Leon]

Just curious what people on the site have been thinking with the recent significant rise in prices for most cards. Given that this appears to involve many cards across the collecting spectrum, seems less likely to relate to any “buyers group.” This, at least in part, seems to be related to people staying home related to COVID-19 and looking for something to do (just my guess). Of course no one can predict the future, but just wondering if any people are holding off on buying right now, to wait and see if things return to some degree of “normalcy” after the COVID situation has become more manageable (vaccine, better therapies, etc.).

Obviously, not all of us are waiting on the sidelines, as someone is causing this spike in prices!

Thanks everyone, and my apologies if this was discussed in another post recently.

Adam


Hey Adam
I think you answered your own question ie...the spike in prices. :)

.

[Jetsfan]

Yes Leon. I guess I’m more wondering if there are any folks out there who are actually sitting on the sidelines right now and expecting prices to retreat a little bit. It’s just a bit nutty how much prices have spiked, even in the past few months. I’m certainly hesitant to purchase right now...though I did purchase a couple of things :)

[Seven]

Just curious what people on the site have been thinking with the recent significant rise in prices for most cards. Given that this appears to involve many cards across the collecting spectrum, seems less likely to relate to any “buyers group.” This, at least in part, seems to be related to people staying home related to COVID-19 and looking for something to do (just my guess). Of course no one can predict the future, but just wondering if any people are holding off on buying right now, to wait and see if things return to some degree of “normalcy” after the COVID situation has become more manageable (vaccine, better therapies, etc.).

Obviously, not all of us are waiting on the sidelines, as someone is causing this spike in prices!

Thanks everyone, and my apologies if this was discussed in another post recently.

Adam

I'm not so much "holding off on buying" as I'm "searching for a good deal." Granted the purchases I'm making are nowhere near the level some of the guys on this forum make, but I'm defintely taking my fair share of time hunting for the right cards at the right prices.

I have a hunch things will start going down a little bit more once people are back to a little bit of normalcy in their lives every day. Once shows start up again on a consistent basis, and people are no longer exclusively depending on the internet for buying cards. I feel this more towards the vintage market than anything.

I cannot predict the modern market for the life of me. I don't understand it, it's like people throwing money at Penny Stocks IMO. I understand Tatis Jr. is off to an amazing start and Jasson Dominguez might be the next big thing. However the prices for their cards are flat out ridiculous as we have no idea what the rest of their careers will look like. Especially the Latter. The day I drop $1500 on a card of an unproven 17 year old is the day I also buy the Brooklyn Bridge.

[swarmee]

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=284730&highlight=coronavirus

If you want to read some really interesting threads on blowout about this, the Project 2020 thread on the baseball board and the "cook groups" thread about youtube and discord pumpers will give you a good idea.

There are a lot of cards setting records and not getting paid for, which continually pushes the market higher because now there's a high "sale" recorded. Read some threads about how $2 (last year) Lebron James cards from Panini Prizm are now selling for a thousand a piece. The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

[Jetsfan]

Hi John,

I am almost exclusively a vintage card buyer. Only real exceptions were Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel rookie cards (I’m a Sabres fan...ugh).

I actually was interested in buying a Jasson Dominguez rookie card. But there are so many variations, it’s almost impossible to know which is the base version. I didn’t have this trouble in 1985 with Dwight Gooden.

[JohnnyKilroy]

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

[Tyruscobb]

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

[jjp3rd]

Good question. My answer may not make sense, but yes I think there will be a price retreat (I.e. bubble burst), and yes I continue to buy. I am a collector, and if I see something I want or need, I buy it if the price is right. I have overpaid on a few things, for certain, but I am buying to hold and I don’t want to pass up the opportunity to obtain cards that I have targeted for a while when they appear.

I know there is an investment aspect, but it’s not my problem—I plan to die with most of these cards in my possession, so their value won’t matter. My kids will be happy with whatever they get out of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[swarmee]

I actually was interested in buying a Jasson Dominguez rookie card.
He doesn't have a rookie card yet, since he hasn't played in the majors. Here are all the cards of his that have been uploaded to COMC so far:
https://www.comc.com/Cards,sc,=jasson+dominguez,ot

Most would recommend you purchase the 1st Bowman Chrome BCP-8 as the "prospect" card to own of his, even though it's a year after his Panini cards. Your other base option is the BP-8 "paper" version, at 1/3rd of the price. If you wait a few months for 2020 Goodwin Champions to show up on Upper Deck epack, there will be a flood of 2020 Upper Deck Jasson cards on the market.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

[Jetsfan]

John,

Thanks for the Dominguez explanation. At least I know know what to look for!

[Fuddjcal]

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

Thanks for saving me the time with the great post. I'll buy anything I want but find my want lists are dwindling anyway. You would have to be a legal moron to pay these prices for new cards. If I'm buying, I'm buying vintage. Just like I did in the 1980's when all the 8 year old "Investors" and their parents got SMEARED! LOL....maybe you missed the part where history always repeats itself. Vintage will always be blue chip whether it goes up or down. New stuff will always be Tulip Bulbs. Make a note and write it down kiddies.

[JohnnyKilroy]

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

Agreed, much different times. But one could argue that with social media, and the acceleration of growth because of it, we could experience the boom / bust on a whole new level. However, I think you are correct. There is a ton of room to grow if managed correctly. The card thing is real and there are a lot of exciting things happening. Yes, supply / demand will dictate the market. Investors are turning more to cards, like crypto currency (sites like starstock too). What I am afraid of the most, is that the bulk of people in this boom right now are not in the upper echelon of income levels. It won’t take much for an economic shift, and the bulk of your demand will start to dry up. I think that shift is coming. Again.. all just my opinion. I stick to vintage, I’m a collector, and I don’t care about the ups / downs these cards take. Although it does make it hard to spread the bank roll around when cards have jumped so much!

[buymycards]

I don't even think about buying Trout, LeBron, etc. However, there are a lot of good deals to be had right now, with pre-war, 50's and 60's cards, vintage non-sports and with many other genres. In the past 3 months I have purchased more cards than I have ever purchased during a 3 month period. Many of these were cheap enough that I am able to flip them for a small profit on eBay, and some were for my personal collection. Just stay away from the Cobbs, Mantles, high grade slabs, and watch for the bargains in lower grades. It takes a lot of time and a lot of searching, but there is no reason to stop buying at this time.

[conor912]

Do i think a correction is likely? Yes. But that honestly wouldn't stop me from buying something i wanted for my collection. I’d much rather buy now and see the value drop than wait, see prices go even higher, and get permanently priced out of something I really wanted. I’ve seen it happen and its a really shitty feeling....way worse than an unrealized loss on something I’ll probably never sell anyways.

[GeoPoto]

For the past several years, the Federal Reserve (and many of its international equivalents) has pursued a policy of increasing the availability of dollars by purchasing bonds and holding them on its balance sheet. The justification for the policy is that the enhanced liquidity will spur economic activity and job creation and there is little enough inflation that "real" economic activity will increase.

The fed's accommodative policy was holding its own (the economy was booming and inflation remained constrained) when the pandemic hit. In response to the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, the Fed has felt compelled to "double down" on the purchase of financial assets, thereby injecting even more dollars into the financial system.

The rush of dollars provided by the Fed has pushed stocks and bonds to historical highs even as the economy has staggered, with several sectors facing existential challenges. Gold is rising and the dollar is falling, both classic advance indicators of impending inflation.

One view would be that purchasing collectables, particularly high-end items with active (liquid) markets, is a logical use of investable capital in expectation of higher (possibly much higher) rates of inflation in the near future combined with stagnant stock and bond markets.

Collectables are similar to gold -- a relatively fixed supply with a reliable hold on people's fascination. Selling stocks and bonds at historically high levels and purchasing collectables could be a prudent "hedge" strategy for a portion of a large investment portfolio.

[samosa4u]

Like most of you on here, I once thought that prices were on fire because everybody was sitting at home, and Gary V. followers were jumping all over certain cards, the Jordan documentary ... blah, blah, blah. However, one day I decided to do a little bit of research and I realized that something was terribly wrong. I saw lots of shill bidding going on, lots of bid retractions, and of course, I don't even know how many sales were actually real! Furthermore, if EVERYBODY is sitting at home and just bidding away, then shouldn't football and hockey cards be on fire too? Most baseball cards have not gone up either.

It is my opinion that 2016 is being repeated again. Certain cards are being targeted - mostly basketball - and when this is over, oh boy, a lot of people are going to get screwed.

[Rhotchkiss]

Well said GeoPoto. I very much agree

[Directly]

Many new short term buyers, young and old--when they hear a modern card offered and selling for 1,000,000 or 100-250,000 started a shark frenzy. Where did they these cards originate from--PACKS! Walmart as one example sports card shelves are bare. When restocked baseball, baseball and football packs may last an hour or two sometimes minutes!
A new rookie buyer said he didn't know anything about cards, but heard through social media, sports cards have become very lucrative and wanted in on the action! Who's driving these escalating prices --we are--if you see a Goudey Ruth card asking price 10,000 are you going to sell the one you purchased last year for 3500 for 5,000 if you don't need the money-? These are price crazy times and may only end when the buyers end!

[carlsonjok]

I am on the sidelines...sorta.

My collecting has slowed down considerably. In part due to not attending in-person shows, but also online. I only have 1 card left to finish my 1970 set (Bench) and 5 cards to finish 1968 (including the Ryan RC) and I expect that I won't finish those sets until the bubble bursts and the prices on those cards come back down to levels I feel comfortable paying. I don't even want to think about that 1955 Clemente, even though I am 85% done with that set.

I still pick up things here and there for niche parts of my collection that aren't subject to the price inflation, but that is about it.

[puckpaul]

Well said! Saved me the trouble of writing it. It’s not so much the spike in card prices but the drop in the value of dollars. There is a LOT of money out there, and in the high end, incredibly high amounts of money. I think cards will holds more value than they might seem in this spike, because there is no way to fix the dollar from here.

So buy what you like and can afford, don’t wait for a price drop in most cards.


For the past several years, the Federal Reserve (and many of its international equivalents) has pursued a policy of increasing the availability of dollars by purchasing bonds and holding them on its balance sheet. The justification for the policy is that the enhanced liquidity will spur economic activity and job creation and there is little enough inflation that "real" economic activity will increase.

The fed's accommodative policy was holding its own (the economy was booming and inflation remained constrained) when the pandemic hit. In response to the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, the Fed has felt compelled to "double down" on the purchase of financial assets, thereby injecting even more dollars into the financial system.

The rush of dollars provided by the Fed has pushed stocks and bonds to historical highs even as the economy has staggered, with several sectors facing existential challenges. Gold is rising and the dollar is falling, both classic advance indicators of impending inflation.

One view would be that purchasing collectables, particularly high-end items with active (liquid) markets, is a logical use of investable capital in expectation of higher (possibly much higher) rates of inflation in the near future combined with stagnant stock and bond markets.

Collectables are similar to gold -- a relatively fixed supply with a reliable hold on people's fascination. Selling stocks and bonds at historically high levels and purchasing collectables could be a prudent "hedge" strategy for a portion of a large investment portfolio.

[joshuanip]

If the market tells you anything, buying on momentum is a winning strategy. Your IRR is better on increasing price momo versus sitting on intrinsic value.

Other rationale includes the boat of liquidity by the fed pushing money into all assets, including cards. And cards are similar to gold - alternative store of value. As the dollar debase, assets valued with dollars rise...

[joshuanip]

I should read earlier posts... (says the doppelgänger)

[swarmee]

Yeah, but how are cards a good store of capital when sectors like modern basketball are in hyperinflation? Again base cards of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant which used to sell for DOLLARS last year are now selling for THOUSANDS. This is not a good investment at these prices, because the money has to dry up. This would be like silver at $300/oz or DJIA at $400K... if you would invest in modern cards now, it would be the equivalent to me.

[Yoda]

when the card market corrects from its current dizzying heights, as it most certainly will, I hope that vintage pre-war cards hold up better than the deep pools of Mike Trout rookies. This board is supposed to be about vintage not the hottest rookie.

[conor912]

when the card market corrects from its current dizzying heights, as it most certainly will, I hope that vintage pre-war cards hold up better than the deep pools of Mike Trout rookies. This board is supposed to be about vintage not the hottest rookie.

I would happily watch the value of my prewar collection plummet if it meant I could then afford some things that are currently out of my reach.

[drcy]

There are two reasons price guides are unreliable: 1) Shilling and 2) You don't know which which sales were actual sales. Many surely were not.



https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=284730&highlight=coronavirus

If you want to read some really interesting threads on blowout about this, the Project 2020 thread on the baseball board and the "cook groups" thread about youtube and discord pumpers will give you a good idea.

There are a lot of cards setting records and not getting paid for, which continually pushes the market higher because now there's a high "sale" recorded. Read some threads about how $2 (last year) Lebron James cards from Panini Prizm are now selling for a thousand a piece. The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

[Kingcobb]

I collect PSA 5 T206's, commons I was paying 75 to 100 dollars are now gong for $200 and up, and HOF'ers are insane. I can't bring myself to pay these prices I have only picked up 1 card the past year. If these prices continue I will probably cash out its very tempting could double or triple my original cost.

[Ronnie73]

I am somewhat sitting on the sidelines since the price increases but occasionally I still do purchase a T206 for my set when the price is super reasonable. I also collect other items such as coins and I've had really good luck purchasing rare varieties at common prices. The deals are still out there. There just isn't as many as there used to be. I'm still spending all of my monthly budget so basically I'm still staying pretty busy and I feel that the items I'm purchasing are more stable than the dollar currently is.

[Rhotchkiss]

I collect PSA 5 T206's, commons I was paying 75 to 100 dollars are now gong for $200 and up, and HOF'ers are insane. I can't bring myself to pay these prices I have only picked up 1 card the past year. If these prices continue I will probably cash out its very tempting could double or triple my original cost.

I believe these price increases are real and not the result of shilling, no-sales, or other price manipulation. There are many cards whose values are truly up, including PSA 5 T206s.

If you can afford them and are willing and able to hold for the long term (5-10+ years), I believe T206s, Cobbs, Ruths, Jacksons, Wagners, other rare pre WWI issues and blue chip HOFers are great investments. I have watched them increase consistently in value for 35 years (since I started collecting in the early 80's) and I do not see that changing. This is true also of Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Aaron, Robinson, etc., but these are too "common" for me personally. Baseball cards of blue chip players will go up in the long-term. Just like stock. If you believe this, and I do, then there is no sense in trying to "time the market". Rather, believe in the investment.

[Jewish-collector]

I am somewhat sitting on the sidelines since the price increases but occasionally I still do purchase a T206 for my set when the price is super reasonable. I also collect other items such as coins and I've had really good luck purchasing rare varieties at common prices. The deals are still out there. There just isn't as many as there used to be. I'm still spending all of my monthly budget so basically I'm still staying pretty busy and I feel that the items I'm purchasing are more stable than the dollar currently is.

Ron - Here you go. A chance to get a bunch of T206 cards at a "super reasonable" price. :D

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/t206-icons-vintage-sets-48-bowman-box-headline-big-mile-high-auction/

[ullmandds]

I would avoid whats going through the roof at the moment...like jordan rookies...modern basketball. Blue chip vintage will be fine. Demand has caught up to supply for quality pre war stuff.

[midwaylandscaping]

Good question. My answer may not make sense, but yes I think there will be a price retreat (I.e. bubble burst), and yes I continue to buy. I am a collector, and if I see something I want or need, I buy it if the price is right. I have overpaid on a few things, for certain, but I am buying to hold and I don’t want to pass up the opportunity to obtain cards that I have targeted for a while when they appear.

I know there is an investment aspect, but it’s not my problem—I plan to die with most of these cards in my possession, so their value won’t matter. My kids will be happy with whatever they get out of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Makes perfect sense here, same strategy.:) I put a base 03 Topps LeBron James on eBay, first eBay sell listing for me since 2010. I took the money from the sale and turned it into PSA graded 78 OPC(7) & Topps(8) Eddie Murrays, a PSA 7 66 Philadelphia Bob Hayes, a 79 Topps PSA 7 Ozzie Newsome, a 56 Topps PSA 2(great eye appeal) Roosevelt Brown from Levi 707, and a 32 inch LG Smart TV. Wanted the LeBron gone, got things I wanted that will be with me for years. Well, the tv may not last decades :p

[jjp3rd]

Makes perfect sense here, same strategy.:) I put a base 03 Topps LeBron James on eBay, first eBay sell listing for me since 2010. I took the money from the sale and turned it into PSA graded 78 OPC(7) & Topps(8) Eddie Murrays, a PSA 7 66 Philadelphia Bob Hayes, a 79 Topps PSA 7 Ozzie Newsome, a 56 Topps PSA 2(great eye appeal) Roosevelt Brown from Levi 707, and a 32 inch LG Smart TV. Wanted the LeBron gone, got things I wanted that will be with me for years. Well, the tv may not last decades :p


That’s a great haul! I’ve heard some of my friends tell similar tales...selling modern and putting the money into vintage. You’re the first one to add a TV, though! Great stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pokerplyr80]

I owned a few modern cards that were up quite a lot over what I paid. I sold most of them and it covered a good portion of the CJ Jackson I picked up here. I'm still buying, but none of the cards that have experienced the huge run ups (other than a Goudey Ruth).

[seanofjapan]

I think a lot of this is explicable by people re-allocating money they would have spent on other stuff like holidays to sedentary hobbies like ours which you can do at home by yourself.

The interesting question is what happens when the pandemic ends. Do people just snap back to their previous spending habits and stop pouring money into cards like they are now? Or has some of this changed behavior become permanent - people having been turned into hardcore collectors staying that way?

Either way, I would “hold” on any major purchases now since its obviously a seller’s market.

[Leon]

I think a lot of this is explicable by people re-allocating money they would have spent on other stuff like holidays to sedentary hobbies like ours which you can do at home by yourself.

The interesting question is what happens when the pandemic ends. Do people just snap back to their previous spending habits and stop pouring money into cards like they are now? Or has some of this changed behavior become permanent - people having been turned into hardcore collectors staying that way?

Either way, I would “hold” on any major purchases now since its obviously a seller’s market. Current auctions = hard to hold, especially when some of the cards won't come up again for years, and in some cases, it could be 10s of years or ever :)

.

[chuckw]

I’ve been assessing the significant rise in card prices over the past year (and especially the past 4-6 months) so I’ve spent some time understanding what is influencing the market and what are the biggest risks. Here are some quick observations on the market drivers:
1. Social Media Influencers – there are some very popular people on social media who have helped recruit a massive number of new buyers to our industry over the past couple of years, and especially in 2020. An investment-oriented social media influencer is someone who has a big following for their investment guidance. People follow these people for their investment ideas, and many have been telling people about specifics of good investments to make in sports cards. I can’t give you a number, but a guess would be that these influencers have brought tens of thousands of new investors to our industry. These social media influencers give people specifics of what sports cards they invested in, how much it appreciated in a short time, and what is the next hottest item. Most of the new investors have seen good results, but some investment ideas didn’t work as well (Topps Project 2020).
2. Asia Pacific and International Market – over the last couple of years I’ve watched the Asia Pacific and other international areas increase purchases and investments. This is especially the case for basketball and soccer cards. Panini has made increased amounts of “China exclusive” products and I remember Beckett commented on the increase in submissions for grading from Asia Pacific.
3. Day Traders and Stock Market Investors – this is one of the groups that the social media influencers has helped bring to our industry. It’s then a trickle-down effect on social media. They discuss specifics of purchases they make and how they have increased. This is a big movement for newer cards, especially as a player gets hot in any sport. Even the recent basketball restart was a bit crazy, as guys like Bol Bol and Gary Trent Jr. had a couple good games and their cards skyrocketed overnight. Underappreciated stars like Damian Lilliard also saw their cards spike, and any Lebron or Kobe PSA 10 card seems to increase by the week, even if it was somewhat mass produced. In summary, many of the investors in this group is looking for a quick return like a day trader in the stock market, and others are betting on good annual appreciation. In football, the increase in value in rookies such as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson has been staggering. Young baseball stars such as Acuna, Soto, Tatis, Luis Robert and others have increased in value like crazy.
4. Gamblers – similar to day traders shifting to our industry during the pandemic, the on-line gamblers had limited sporting events to bet on. They have found success investing in players as they are heating up and sharing with others the rise in eBay sale prices.
5. Sneaker Collectors – also brought over from the social media influence, the "sneaker heads" are apparently people who always invested in rare sneakers for investments. Since a big part of their investments were basketball sneakers, they are very active in newer basketball cards.
6. The Pandemic Itself – you can’t ignore the fact that more people were home, and most investors in our industry have done well in the past few months.
7. Prospecting – I’ve noted several examples above on the influence on the newer cards that essentially are related to prospecting the next great star or prospecting that rookie and rare superstars like Lebron, Kobe, Jeter, Griffey, Mantle, Jordan, or whatever iconic great will continue to rise in value.
8. Vintage Impact – some of the investors have been looking at good investments in vintage cards, as we’ve seen the vintage high-grade and rookie card values increase considerably. One social media influencer of note has shifted a lot of focus from newer to vintage cards.
9. Retail distribution by Panini and Topps – there is a craze of mass-produced retail sports card boxes at Walmart and Target, as fairly hard to get hobby boxes are showing up at Walmarts and Targets across the US, and buyers can almost instantly more than quadruple their investment by selling the products on-line. Personally, I wish Panini and Topps cared more about hobby stores. A Walmart manager recently told me that the people who deliver sports cards to Walmarts in Pennsylvania are now bringing security people with them to restock shelves, and some restocking employees (which is an outside vendor), are stalked in parking lots and followed home. One concern I have for this movement is the massive amount of cards being produced that are expected to be more common. For example, 2019-20 Chronicles basketball came out in hobby boxes 2-3 weeks ago and some of the rookies were getting great prices on eBay, but now I can’t fathom a guess how many of the same cards are easily available in retail boxes.
10. Four Sports at the Same Time – once the NFL starts up, the 4 primary sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL) will all be playing at the same time and the prospecting of who will be hot is occurring for each primary sport at the same time.
11. GEM MINT Graded Cards – PSA, Beckett, and SGC have all experienced not only an all-time high in graded submissions, but the increase of that volume is increasing at non-manageable levels. One grading company told me their weekly submissions has more than tripled since pre-pandemic and the percent increase of submissions is increasing week after week. Beckett and SGC are now charging $100 for 5-day turn around. We always talk supply and demand in business. In this case demand is two-fold – increased number of buyers of cards, and the increased number of cards to be graded. Supply of newer cards took a hit during the spring in the heart of the pandemic, which also was a market driver. You can buy a newer rookie card for $5-$10 that may have a 50% chance of being a gem mint grade, and the gem mint grade may sell for 10 times more than the purchase price. At those numbers, it’s been a good investment for many.
12. The Money Reinvested Back in the Industry. So more people making money in cards, means a lot of that money is getting reinvested back into the industry.
Just noticed I’m rambling too much. Consider the long-term supply and demand when you are investing. I think the vintage market will stay very strong for top cards. Newer cards will stay strong if buyers will keep paying 5-10 times more for Gem Mint rookies and the many new buyers stay in the game (but the bubble can easily break if the buyers move out, or the supply of newer cards increases too much). I think the backlog at the grading companies is helping prices (less gem mints of newer stuff than if they could keep up with the volume). My overall thoughts are to enjoy this bubble while it lasts and that a $100k investment is better made in a signed 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth than a 2019-20 Zion Williamson 1/1 autograph 😊. Since I’m not spending $100k, I’d rather spend $100 on a rare Michael Jordan or Mike Trout card or a vintage HOFer card than Bol Bol.

[Exhibitman]

Lots of good points but here is what I think is the most salient one:

I am watching the savings rate. The U.S. personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) has spiked:

June 2020 19.0%
May 2020 23.2 %
April 2020 32.2 %
March 2020 12.6 %

The spike in card prices started after 2-3 months of savings. Those who are still employed and not sick were socking away money at a record pace. Add that to boredom and flatlined leisure spending and you have a perfect condition for a price spike. No doubt that spike has been fueled by social media (like that Gary V character) and people with a financial interest in stoking a FOMO response.

So the question is what to do. To me it is like a housing bubble: if you are OK with taking the profit and moving into an apartment, sell the house and hang onto the money until the inevitable correction. If you like your house and don't need to cash in, forget about it. I am in the middle. I've sold a handful of highly appreciated cards that I liked but that were just too attractively priced to keep (I replaced one with a lower grade copy that cost me a tiny fraction of the sale price because I like the card). If the July data continues the move closer to the American historical average of 7% I would expect the acceleration of prices to halt and the drops to start. I will probably list most of the highly appreciated cards at that point, cash them in, and wait to repurchase them lower. If that doesn't happen, well, OK, I have the cash. If does happen, then even better. I effectively rented my card to someone for a period.

[Frank A]

All is well in the sports card market. People are buying and people are selling. With the pathetic interest rates for savings, who would not take a chance. I have ben following this for the last 5 months and every time I think it might collapse it goes higher. Covid is going to be around for a long time. There is no vaccine and may not be one for quite a while. The whole world is being hit again with no cure in sight. Shopping the internet for cards is fun and keeps your mind off this troubled world.

[Exhibitman]

Shopping the internet for cards is fun and keeps your mind off this troubled world.


“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose,” Jefferson Burdick, introduction to the 1960 edition of the American Card Catalog

[vintagewhitesox]

I'm holding off on some cards that I think will come back down to earth. Then there are some cards that a previous poster said, you may not see for decades. Im ok with paying a "higher" price, because when it comes back up for sale, that card will be even higher.

Ive been fortunate that the shutdown hasn't hurt me that much. but then again, not all of us have checks coming in from the Super Terrific Happy Hour.

[Shoeless Moe]

[QUOTE=vintagewhitesox; not all of us have checks coming in from the Super Terrific Happy Hour.[/QUOTE]





ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!


Serenity Now.....


.....Insanity later!

[Oscar_Stanage]

I have a bought a LOT of cards and unopened packs/boxes in the last 3 months, and these were my first purchases since probably 1992.

I think it's over simplifying to think this is driven by people with nothing better to do. My initial re-entry was certainly due to COVID - I spent a lot of time going through my collection (had not touched in 30 years), and organizing/itemizing etc...But it did not stop there - this process completely re-charged my interest in collecting... I began to buy all the cards I could not own as a kid (84 Fleer Update, Mantle, Aaron, Banks, etc), and complete a my incomplete sets. Then I stumbled upon Tobacco cards and will now spend the next few years working on The Monster in addition to all of the star rookies from my generation (Jordan, Montana, Gretzky, etc).

So, yes COVID did get me back in... but I am not going away just because I have to eventually go back to work. I'd guess more people involved in the 2020 flurry are somewhat like me. Sure, I'd like to pay less, but I am a collector not a dealer and I do not plan on selling.

[Leon]

Personally, I think it is a little bit of all of the above mentioned. That said, I have s good hunch that some of these prices won't come down ie.. Red Cobbys, Goudey Ruiths and some other mainstays that have rocketed up. They are more fun to collect than to have most of your money sitting as a number in a bank somewhere... :)

.

[rhettyeakley]

I have a bought a LOT of cards and unopened packs/boxes in the last 3 months, and these were my first purchases since probably 1992.

I think it's over simplifying to think this is driven by people with nothing better to do. My initial re-entry was certainly due to COVID - I spent a lot of time going through my collection (had not touched in 30 years), and organizing/itemizing etc...But it did not stop there - this process completely re-charged my interest in collecting... I began to buy all the cards I could not own as a kid (84 Fleer Update, Mantle, Aaron, Banks, etc), and complete a my incomplete sets. Then I stumbled upon Tobacco cards and will now spend the next few years working on The Monster in addition to all of the star rookies from my generation (Jordan, Montana, Gretzky, etc).

So, yes COVID did get me back in... but I am not going away just because I have to eventually go back to work. I'd guess more people involved in the 2020 flurry are somewhat like me. Sure, I'd like to pay less, but I am a collector not a dealer and I do not plan on selling.

Welcome back to the hobby!

I love hearing stories like this as we all need a bit of an escape from the world and as Adam referenced in his above quote by Jefferson Burdick that a card collection "...takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day"

Happy collecting!

[investinrookies]

Personally, I think it is a little bit of all of the above mentioned. That said, I have s good hunch that some of these prices won't come down ie.. Red Cobbys, Goudey Ruiths and some other mainstays that have rocketed up. They are more fun to collect than to have most of your money sitting as a number in a bank somewhere... :)

.

Red Cobbs seem to be especially hot lately and dont show any signs of slowing down.

[Exhibitman]

I was kicking this around with other collectors recently and it seems like the rising tide on the marquee cards is lifting the lower grade specimens as well as other cards from the same era. I posted a good but not marquee basketball card for sale on eBay and I am surprised how fast and high it has gone up in competitive bidding. I am going to list all the other slabbed stuff; may as well since they are readily replaced with raw cards.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

This is a great discussion...and I think about it a lot recently.

I think that the question as to whether to buy now probably depends on what you are buying.

If you are in the market for a blue chip card (as mentioned above....Cobb, Ruth, Mantle) I'd think you're safe to purchase now if you are looking for longer term ownership. Even though they have spiked considerably, and even if the prices level or even dip a little, I have little doubt they will continue to climb in price/value, slow and steady. You may not be able to flip it right now for a profit, but you'll be OK long term. I think the new collectors that are coming in to the hobby now will ensure that.

The one area I would hesitate to buy now, would be highly graded PSA slabbed cards. Even more so with modern cards. While you could still probably be OK with those blue chip cards, I feel like the premium paid for PSA slabs is increasingly artificially high. As I research mid grade vintage hall of famers, I feel like you can save HUNDREDS of dollars by buying identically conditioned cards in SGC holders instead of PSA. Part of that might be because of modern collectors coming in to vintage. As far as I can tell in modern, it is all about the PSA 10 Gem Mint card. Those are the gold standard. So even though modern collectors might be surprised to find out that PSA 10 cards are almost non-existent in vintage, that PSA label likely still looks more appealing to them. In my opinion, nice condition cards in SGC slabs are likely a good buy right now...as I would guess collectors will someday figure out that the card in the holder is what's important, not the slab. I'm sure there are people right now exploiting this by buying nice SGC cards and making a profit by reslabbing them in PSA holders...even after the grading fee.

[fkm_bky]

Great topic. I'm in active pursuit for my T206 HOF type set right now and sold off some others to help fund it. So far those funds are sitting largely untapped b/c of two reasons.

1. Some of the prices for even VG examples are ridiculous and I'll wait it out.

2. More than anything, there just isn't a lot of options for what I'm looking for. I could do Ebay (but I won't). I almost exclusively use Net54 for my transactions. I trust the people and I'd rather help out a fellow forum member than some anonymous jerkwad on Ebay (although I know many of you sell on Ebay and are NOT jerkwads :D).

I'm not in a big rush and will wait for the right opp, but it does lead to overpaying when you cant scratch that itch as often as you like.

I hope you are all doing well and staying safe and healthy!

Regards,

Bill

[Exhibitman]

I've been thinking along similar lines, Jerry. I am looking to add to my collection with cards of marquee players whose cards are (1) raw or slabbed by the 'wrong' TPG, (2) graded just below the 'right grade' but present better than the grade assigned, and (3) if in the 'wrong' holders are offered at a discount to the equivalent cards from the 'right' TPGs. I did that during the last run-up and wasn't stung much at all when the pump and dump scheme ended. Now those cards are worth well above what I paid. 'Course they're not for sale because they would punch a helluva hole in my collection. Guess my daughter will inherit some nice cards some day...

[Oscar_Stanage]

This is a great discussion...and I think about it a lot recently.

I think that the question as to whether to buy now probably depends on what you are buying.

If you are in the market for a blue chip card (as mentioned above....Cobb, Ruth, Mantle) I'd think you're safe to purchase now if you are looking for longer term ownership. Even though they have spiked considerably, and even if the prices level or even dip a little, I have little doubt they will continue to climb in price/value, slow and steady. You may not be able to flip it right now for a profit, but you'll be OK long term. I think the new collectors that are coming in to the hobby now will ensure that.

The one area I would hesitate to buy now, would be highly graded PSA slabbed cards. Even more so with modern cards. While you could still probably be OK with those blue chip cards, I feel like the premium paid for PSA slabs is increasingly artificially high. As I research mid grade vintage hall of famers, I feel like you can save HUNDREDS of dollars by buying identically conditioned cards in SGC holders instead of PSA. Part of that might be because of modern collectors coming in to vintage. As far as I can tell in modern, it is all about the PSA 10 Gem Mint card. Those are the gold standard. So even though modern collectors might be surprised to find out that PSA 10 cards are almost non-existent in vintage, that PSA label likely still looks more appealing to them. In my opinion, nice condition cards in SGC slabs are likely a good buy right now...as I would guess collectors will someday figure out that the card in the holder is what's important, not the slab. I'm sure there are people right now exploiting this by buying nice SGC cards and making a profit by reslabbing them in PSA holders...even after the grading fee.


Thank you for bringing up grading....as a new collector back after 30 years (posted above), I have done my homework on the big-3. I have not had anything slabbed yet, but will eventually. I believe the "PSA premium" is artificial and won't last in the long run. Too inconsistent and biased, which is the basic task that I pay a grader to perform. As a collector who likely won't sell, I am going another direction. I think that over time other providers will prove to be better at the job, and the premium will fade.

On the card market in general, I do not think the recent influx of buyers is as fickle as assumed. I believe most are like me, who are now back in the hobby for the long-term. For this reason, I think the prices on key cards will be sustainable. But of course, any economic shock will still have an impact.

[perezfan]

Thank you for bringing up grading....as a new collector back after 30 years (posted above), I have done my homework on the big-3. I have not had anything slabbed yet, but will eventually. I believe the "PSA premium" is artificial and won't last in the long run. Too inconsistent and biased, which is the basic task that I pay a grader to perform. As a collector who likely won't sell, I am going another direction. I think that over time other providers will prove to be better at the job, and the premium will fade.

On the card market in general, I do not think the recent influx of buyers is as fickle as assumed. I believe most are like me, who are now back in the hobby for the long-term. For this reason, I think the prices on key cards will be sustainable. But of course, any economic shock will still have an impact.

You sound like a good candidate to try the new Grading Company, CCG. I am pretty much in the same boat, and have the same feelings as you towards PSA. I will not give them a dime.

Once they establish a bit of a reputation, this one might be worth a try...

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/ccg-to-start-sports-card-authentication-and-grading-division/

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

I’m just the opposite. I won’t buy anything vintage that’s not in a psa holder. And if given a choice prefer cards in the updated hologram holders which means it’s most likely recently graded. From what I’ve seen PSA is just so much stricter now vs SGC and when comparing same grade examples it’s no comparison.

[riggs336]

[QUOTE=Wid_Conroy;2010861]Thank you for bringing up grading....as a new collector back after 30 years (posted above), I have done my homework on the big-3. I have not had anything slabbed yet, but will eventually. I believe the "PSA premium" is artificial and won't last in the long run. Too inconsistent and biased, which is the basic task that I pay a grader to perform. As a collector who likely won't sell, I am going another direction. I think that over time other providers will prove to be better at the job, and the premium will fade.

There are thousands of examples like this but this one seems especially apropos to this thread:
A few months ago a T206 Magie graded 1.5 by SGC sold at auction for $5600. Tonight a Magie graded PSA 1.5 (MC) went for $9000. Maybe the PSA card was especially attractive for the grade, but I have to think the "PSA premium" was a factor.

[Santo10Fan]

Just bought my first five-figure card.

[Oscar_Stanage]

I’m just the opposite. I won’t buy anything vintage that’s not in a psa holder. And if given a choice prefer cards in the updated hologram holders which means it’s most likely recently graded. From what I’ve seen PSA is just so much stricter now vs SGC and when comparing same grade examples it’s no comparison.

Thank you. To clarify my earlier comment about grading, I need to clarify buying a graded card vs sending in a raw card.... If a card is slabbed PSA and is price right, I would buy it. But if I am going to pay someone to grade my card, I want the same grade regardless of whether its Randy Johnson or Randy Ready. Unfortunately, PSA has provenly failed in this regard. So I would not send a star card that might be a true 10, only to have it randomly called a 9.....I'd have zero faith in the accuracy, so what am I paying for? But if it's an existing card slabbed, I can judge whether or not I think it's a good buy for the price.

[rats60]

Thank you. To clarify my earlier comment about grading, I need to clarify buying a graded card vs sending in a raw card.... If a card is slabbed PSA and is price right, I would buy it. But if I am going to pay someone to grade my card, I want the same grade regardless of whether its Randy Johnson or Randy Ready. Unfortunately, PSA has provenly failed in this regard. So I would not send a star card that might be a true 10, only to have it randomly called a 9.....I'd have zero faith in the accuracy, so what am I paying for? But if it's an existing card slabbed, I can judge whether or not I think it's a good buy for the price.

There is no reason to grade any card unless you are thinking of selling. Save your money and use it to buy more cards. On the other hand, I wouldn't buy anything over 100.00 that wasn't graded and would look to buy primarily graded cards.

[conor912]

Just bought my first five-figure card.

Does it live in Canada? Did you buy it at Niagra Falls?

Pics, man, pics! :)

[Santo10Fan]

Does it live in Canada? Did you buy it at Niagra Falls?

Pics, man, pics! :) Cross-posted! https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?p=2011229&posted=1#post2011229

[Oscar_Stanage]

There is no reason to grade any card unless you are thinking of selling. Save your money and use it to buy more cards. On the other hand, I wouldn't buy anything over 100.00 that wasn't graded and would look to buy primarily graded cards.


Thank you. Curious the logic on not buying raw cards > $100... is it because of authenticity concerns? or is that you do not trust the condition with your eye?

I've bought a few cards from Ebay over $100. Mainly from 1 seller (large well-known) who I do not believe will knowingly pass along a fake. And, from what I have read on this site, their grading is fairly representative of reality. I am happy with everything I have received so far... I would not buy a Gretzky or Jordan rookie or other major counterfeit targets, but I generally am comfortable with most cards within my budget.

Should I be more worried?

[BillMill]

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

[deadballera]

not hesitant but it does now price me out of buying some cards for a collector with just a limited amount to spend on the hobby

[conor912]

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

Seems to me that the Hall should be pretty well baked into Jeter prices at this point, but who knows.

[conor912]

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

This is whats scary about the social media age for the hobby. I’m not complaining because I know it has helped fuel the run-up, but all it takes is one bearish tweet from a guy like Gary V to sink the market 30%+.

[Rhotchkiss]

Except for pre 1941, baseball HOFers, I would be selling fast and scared as hell to buy. I think people are going to get crushed. I think all these high prices are the result of pumped up prices (some fake sales) and the influx of a ton of new and inexperienced investors. That is a recipe for disaster. I would be shorting the hell out of all of these cards if I could. This reminds me of the tech stock bubble burst.

[packs]

I'm buying. Every so often there is this same thread with some other benchmark used as the example. Then there is the discussion about whether or not the cards have hit their peak.

I bought this Ruth for $500 on eBay. At the time, that might have sounded pretty high for such a low grade card. My advice is to always pay up when you have it:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50302083773_9e1608f2c0.jpg

[oldeboo]

Got a few Ryan Leaf and Trent Richardson rookie autos sitting around, just waiting to time the market right...

[sportscardpete]

got a few ryan leaf and trent richardson rookie autos sitting around, just waiting to time the market right...

lol

[sportscardpete]

Except for pre 1941, baseball HOFers, I would be selling fast and scared as hell to buy. I think people are going to get crushed. I think all these high prices are the result of pumped up prices (some fake sales) and the influx of a ton of new and inexperienced investors. That is a recipe for disaster. I would be shorting the hell out of all of these cards if I could. This reminds me of the tech stock bubble burst.

I don't know how I feel about this. I agree that baseball HOFers and pre-1941 are rock solid for the long-term - it is where most of my current collection is. And yes, the prices that modern cards are going for now are clearly being pumped. However, legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball? Baseball has been the king for so long but maybe there is room for other sports? I have no right answer for this. No card should go up 10x in a year (just like no stock should), so some decline makes sense. But I feel better in the long run about vintage non-baseball rookies. I'd rather own a vintage rookie than a Kawhi Leonard (or a Josh Allen rookie). I agree that modern is a scary place, but I am still thinking about some of the vintage bubbles and whether or not that is legit.

I would compare a lot of the modern cards to the tech bubble. The tech bubble was created by wild assumptions. Buying a Giannis rookie is similar to the tech bubble; you are assuming he is a legend with multiple rings. If he fails to live up to the hype you will be holding the bag.

The other thing to mention is that the overall popularity of sports cards has grown significantly. And while some will come and go there are a lot of folks here to stay. Social media has made card collecting cool again; however, most people here don't have an instagram so they can't see that (For a while, myself included). There are other apps such as discord that make discussing cards cool as well.

[bbcard1]

I haven't bought anything to speak of lately as I try to get my head around a new pricing level. I would be scared to death to try to hold a Tatis for long-term appreciation, though I think he is a very solid player.

[jbsports33]

There is certainly a combination of everything, and I do not see it stopping anything soon. I have stopped buying a little and have focused on lower end items to sell at flea markets. We already had a lot in storage, so this summer we added onto it. I will get back to the better stuff soon (buying and selling) just too much uncertainty right now and I cannot setup at indoor shows.

and yes, prices are very high! but did not stop me from buying T206 cards last week

Everyone made some really good points and I enjoyed reading.

Thanks Jimmy

[Exhibitman]

legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball?

A year ago the prices on the top vintage basketball guys were ridiculously low. The top five pre-1986 mainstream NBA cards are probably the 1957 Topps Bill Russell, the 1961 Topps Jerry West, Elgin Baylor and Wilt Chamberlain, and the 1969 Topps Lew Alcindor. All were dirt cheap. All could be had in presentable lower grades for a few thousand dollars, total. However, the price jumps in the last several months were ridiculous and they have already started reversing. I don't think they will fall to prior levels but we already see 40% off the top prices. Wouldn't surprise me to see the cards end up at a multiple of where they were at the start but far below their peaks.

[Jcosta19]

Can you imagine paying 40-60k for a Jasson Domingez card?
He hasn't even played a real minor league game yet.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[rjackson44]

i buy vintage its like fine wine ..the new stuff i flip so fast you have to.

[BobbyVCP]

Some really great stuff posted....

The point about not knowing if a sale is real or not really does not pertain to the vintage material for the most part. At VCP we see a lot of it in the modern material for a card that does not have a recorded sale so the seller tries to set a standard with a fake BIN sale, then lists the same card in a regular auction which generally sells for about 1/3 of the fake sale. At least on our site it is blatantly obvious what is being done because you can see that they are the same card in the same case and listed 10 days later. Of course we catch these and delete the fake price. We are in the process of putting in some new software to catch these as they happen so we can get the old ones deleted as the new listing is put up so that there is no record of the fake sale on VCP to sway a potential buyer.

Basketball was the craziest section by far and away and in the past week or two I have seen it start to cool down.

There is a lot of money that just came into this hobby, I talked to a new member of VCP to help him set up his My Collection and since this July he has bought over $3 mil in card.....CRAZY. He started off with modern basketball but quickly got into vintage baseball buying PSA 8 Goudey Ruths, etc

We are experiencing a different time and we will see how this all shakes out in the next year or so....I do believe things should start to level off but not crash.

[toledo_mudhen]

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

Exactly the same on my end - It appears that I have the "patience of Job" - I am long past buying the 1st thing that pops up - a "war chest" is a good thing.

[Rhotchkiss]

Some really great stuff posted....

The point about not knowing if a sale is real or not really does not pertain to the vintage material for the most part. At VCP we see a lot of it in the modern material for a card that does not have a recorded sale so the seller tries to set a standard with a fake BIN sale, then lists the same card in a regular auction which generally sells for about 1/3 of the fake sale. At least on our site it is blatantly obvious what is being done because you can see that they are the same card in the same case and listed 10 days later. Of course we catch these and delete the fake price. We are in the process of putting in some new software to catch these as they happen so we can get the old ones deleted as the new listing is put up so that there is no record of the fake sale on VCP to sway a potential buyer.

Basketball was the craziest section by far and away and in the past week or two I have seen it start to cool down.

There is a lot of money that just came into this hobby, I talked to a new member of VCP to help him set up his My Collection and since this July he has bought over $3 mil in card.....CRAZY. He started off with modern basketball but quickly got into vintage baseball buying PSA 8 Goudey Ruths, etc

We are experiencing a different time and we will see how this all shakes out in the next year or so....I do believe things should start to level off but not crash.

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line” to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

[Gobucsmagic74]

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line" to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

I knew there was something I liked about you Ryan :D

[bbnut]

I buy a mix of it all in baseball. In 21st century cards,, I'm only buying established stars, and packs at MSRP. I'm not going to feed the flippers or obsess over PSA 10s (no graded cards for me). If I can get a few hot rookies for $5 or under, sure. I'm not paying big prices for 18 year olds. Too many sure things weren't. Collect what you enjoy, and don't try to invest long-term.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[troutbum97]

And yes, the prices that modern cards are going for now are clearly being pumped. However, legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball? Baseball has been the king for so long but maybe there is room for other sports? I have no right answer for this. No card should go up 10x in a year (just like no stock should), so some decline makes sense. But I feel better in the long run about vintage non-baseball rookies.


Great point.

I've been in the market for a 1957 Topps Unitas RC in the PSA/SGC 7 range, and noticed that their auctions prices have practically doubled in less than 6-8 months. Approx $1200 to $2400+

Is this "new money"? Were they originally very undervalued? Will these soften 20-25% or so?

I'm very curious.

[Exhibitman]

I am sure that some of the runs on marquee cards were manipulated by clever shillers and touts. Those gains won't hold. Many of the other price increases are genuine and will hold to some extent. For those here who aren't hobby old farts, just remember that this is not the first time prices have surged and fallen back. There were eras (late 1970s, early 1990s, mid 2000s) where prices on vintage and established stars went up then down. Usually the 'down' does not fall all the way back to the previous lows and stay there. Absent a black swan event, anyone looking for a 2010-era pricing structure on vintage cards to emerge and hold is likely to be disappointed.

What is different now than in say 1989 is data flow. Owing to social media and eBay, the speed of the rises and falls has increased, as has the prompt widespread understanding that something is going on. Pre-'net you could take advantage of all sorts of information deficits, like buying Yankees in Los Angeles and selling them in New York; now anyone can just look up the item online and get an idea of what it is worth in seconds.

One other factor that will stabilize prices is that people often will hold a card as it declines rather than sell into a price decline because they do not want to admit to the loss; as long as they hold the card they can tell themselves that it may make money eventually. Dealers do this too. I've had repeated conversations with other collectors about how some dealers frustratingly will keep cards at overpriced levels for years in their eBay stores rather than take a smaller gain and move on to the next deal. Excluding extreme rarities where it can make sense to hold out for a huge payday from a collector who wants the item and cannot find it elsewhere, a rational seller would liquidate stale inventory and reinvest the proceeds in new inventory, because moving money in and out of deals is more lucrative in the long run than tying it up in slow moving inventory that earns nothing as it sits.

[Oscar_Stanage]

I think the only place where there is a 'bubble' is the high end modern cards, Trout, etc. those are people with too much money and nothing better to do. that behavior seems similar to stock market behavior.

I don't see the same issue for most other cards. There are a lot of new collectors drawn back to the hobby who did not have money 30 years ago to buy expensive cards.. I think they are here to stay. Why shouldn't a Jordan rookie go for $25k?

For me, I don't see much risk paying $300 for a reasonable Hank Aaron that was $200 a year ago. Same with Mantle, Mays, HOfers, etc. I'll never sell. So I'll keep buying.

[Kingcobb]

The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down. I think this is the only time I have ever come out ahead in the card market.

[Exhibitman]

"I think the only place where there is a 'bubble' is the high end modern cards, Trout, etc."

"The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down."

The latter is being proven by the evidence. I sold a bunch of stuff into the rising market and am waiting for the downdraft to go a bit lower to replace them. Way I see it is that someone rented my cards for a little while.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Love to see these long time basketball collectors sell into the upswing and make big bucks! You guys deserve it. Basketball was under appreciated for a long time (save Jordan RC's). Just bought my first basketball card couple weeks back. Wish I had started years ago.

[Oscar_Stanage]

"The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down."

The latter is being proven by the evidence.

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble. I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

[riggs336]

I'm buying. Every so often there is this same thread with some other benchmark used as the example. Then there is the discussion about whether or not the cards have hit their peak.

I bought this Ruth for $500 on eBay. At the time, that might have sounded pretty high for such a low grade card. My advice is to always pay up when you have it:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50302083773_9e1608f2c0.jpg

I completely agree with this sentiment. Every Cobb, Gehrig, Ruth, Mays, Mantle, etc. I ever bought I "paid too much for", and everyone of them looks like a steal now. Except that Frank Campos black star.

[BruceinGa]

"Anyone hesitant to buy now?"
I hope not because I am listing another 90 T206's on the bay this month. :D

[Exhibitman]

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble.

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.

I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

A bubble on certain cards and increased interest are not mutually exclusive. I think a price bubble actually attracts new collectors. I hope people stay with other sports cards. Heck, as a young collector I always collected baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards. It wasn't until my adult years that it started to get too expensive to keep it up. I've gone back to it the last decade or so, I just stay away from slabs for all but the most expensive cards.

Basketball is an especially interesting one to get into because there were so few sets from 1950-1970. It is 'doable' for a new collector.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.



yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

[Huysmans]

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

Stating that "the buyers are real and are here to stay" with no evidence whatsoever to verify such a claim, is speculation as well...

[Exhibitman]

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

No, actually it is fact. Look at the thread in the basketball card section where several of us have been tracking prices on various cards. Major card after card is down substantially from the high prices of a month or two ago. The 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain IA PSA 7 had three sales in August over $2,000 and a peak sale at nearly $3200. If I'd dumped my PSA 7 in August I could now repurchase it around $1200-$1500. In my book a 50% decline in a month after a quadrupling of prices in a few months is a deflating bubble. But let's toss out the $3200 sale as an outlier and go with the two $2;000+ sales from August. Still a 25%-40% drop after a steep rise (the card was a $400 card in April). The Dr. J RC went up to about $10,000 in PSA 8 and is now back down into the $4Ks. The thread cites card after card like that. Now, was basketball undervalued? Sure. But that doesn't diminish what we are seeing in the auction results.

[Oscar_Stanage]

No, actually it is fact. Look at the thread in the basketball card section where several of us have been tracking prices on various cards. Major card after card is down substantially from the high prices of a month or two ago. The 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain IA PSA 7 had three sales in August over $2,000 and a peak sale at nearly $3200. If I'd dumped my PSA 7 in August I could now repurchase it around $1200-$1500. In my book a 25%-40% decline in a month after a quadrupling of prices in a few months is a deflating bubble. The Dr. J RC went up to about $10,000 in PSA 8 and is now back down into the $4Ks.

then i stand corrected. had no idea prices have fallen by 50% in those cards. First I have heard of it, was not mentioned previously.

[Exhibitman]

then i stand corrected. had no idea prices have fallen by 50% in those cards. First I have heard of it, was not mentioned previously.

There are some good guys in the basketball section; might wanna check in over there.

[Arazi4442]

It's a very interesting time. If basketball is on the downturn of its bubble, looks like soccer may be at its peak. Pele, Messi, Ronaldo cards are 10X or more of prices at the beginning of the year. Like all of this spike, you can't be sure what sales/auctions are actually paid for but a $10k to $120k jump in a few months is tough to miss. Gotta imagine those prices retract very soon as well.

[Jetsfan]

Well, since I started this thread, I thought I would share my own experience. While I am hesitant to buy now, I have made a couple of purchases. Thanks to BST I picked up a nice low grade Red Cobb and mid grade 58 Mantle. I’d be interested in purchasing a low grade Ruth 144...only problem is I can’t find one for sale :)

And I’ve thoroughly enjoyed this thread. Thanks to all for the responses.

Adam

[Bobbycee]

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line” to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

Ryan, T206 is selling quite well right now as witnessed by the frenzy of prices paid for 5's & HOF's in recent auctions. Is T206 safe from any bursting bubble in the card market? I've never seen T206 prices drop. I'm hoping, at worst, that if there is a correction in the card market, this great set is not affected much, if at all.

[Yoda]

A PSA 10 Messi just sold for #138,000, a new record for a soccer card by far. I wonder what a Pele might fetch if you could find a 9 or 10.