Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[bbcard1]

We're been on a mighty run. To the point where I am not longer buying like I used to because things that "feel" like good buys are far in between. Those of us who have been here a while have seen it happen before, but what are your thoughts short and long term?

[Brian Van Horn]

A little hard to notice the stock market effect with all the lawsuits flying around.

[Goudey77]

For the sake of humanity I hope nothing bad comes of the recent events.

We know if this market slide continues for more than a few months it'll trigger some bear market sentiments. Causing people to hold tight on spending.
It's just human nature right?

If we don't see a bounce back in the market i'm guessing a consistent yet flat trend in card prices. Probably some buying opportunities in between.

Luxury items and non essentials will see impacts first. So card prices should react +/- fairly quickly.

[Rhotchkiss]

Yes. This stock market madness will affect the value of cards. If the stock market continues to struggle, the cost/value of (most) cards will go down. But just as the stock market will eventually go up, so will the value of (certain) cards. I believe if you buy the right cards and are “long” in them, you will do fine (maybe even well) over the longterm.

[JollyElm]

Put all of your slabbed cards into coronavirus surgical masks, and all will be fine eventually. :D

[Bigdaddy]

Does this work?

[Exhibitman]

Last time around the card market lagged the stock market by about 9-12 months. I'd be cautious about buying any high-flying cards just now.

[Dpeck100]

In December of 18 this was a hot topic and then the market went on a 41% run and it was never mentioned again.

There may be some correlation at the ultra high end but I don't believe it exists as much as many think for most cards. In my view employment trends are much more important as cash flow is king.

One of the reasons the card market is so hot is that many smaller time investors can enter the market with very limited funds and actually participate. Whether one likes Gary Vee or doesn't he signaled last year that the sneaker heads were going to take their fast cash and bring it to cards and they did and basketball cards have exploded. Not just doubling but moving higher by four fold and six fold and even more. Whether this is a sustainable trend is debatable but it has happened and the market is simply scorching hot. Every segment has gotten hot as of late and I think that many people use trading cards for investment purposes and since the barriers to entry are so low and there is action at every price point it attracts all kinds.

I have routinely said I have never gotten even close to investing in anything that on a percentage basis has kept pace with my wrestling cards and this is just a tiny niche part of the market and had one taken the same dollars and put them in Lebron, or Jordan, or some other mega star they too would have seen exponential returns. This appeal isn't going away.

If the market decline accurately predicts a longer term economic decline where jobs are lost and there is true distress in the economy than disposable income will decline and this will naturally affect cards. That said a selling stampede in a wildly overbought market would generally be viewed as just a sharp correction and the probabilities still suggest the economy is sound and therefore cards will be fine.

There has been tremendous headline risk in the card market in the past year and yet it has done nothing to slow it down and it has actually accelerated during these events and as I said when this first surfaced it wouldn't affect the market and it hasn't and won't.

There is tremendous enthusiasm for cards and with modern stars like Trout and Zion and established legends like Lebron, Brady, and Jeter seeing eye popping auction results the game is far from over.

There are many that despise the word investment when it comes to their beloved hobby where they opened nickel packs and put them in their bike spokes but for the overwhelming percentage of participants they won't simply keep throwing their hard earned money into a hobby where they lose money. There are countless collectors that have seen continued appreciation in their invested or allocated dollars and it makes it much easier to keep doing this. If a nice vacation is 5k for most you probably aren't excited to spend 5k on cards and watch them turn into 1k when you could have had a ton of fun using those resources. Instead they turned into 10k and you get to admire and cherish them and have pride of ownership.

I am bullish. I remain bullish as I have the entire time and baring a victory by someone who wants to fundamentally change our entire system we will all be fine I believe.

Good luck with your collecting or collecting/investing. I don't view either as bad.

[rdwyer]

Can I get Corona Virus from a card I bought on BST?

[bobbyw8469]

Can I get Corona Virus from a card I bought on BST?

Depends on the seller. And if it was PSA graded.

[Brian Van Horn]

This should cheer you up:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/stock-markets-headed-40-percent-220900734.html

:rolleyes:

[Dpeck100]

This should cheer you up:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/stock-markets-headed-40-percent-220900734.html

:rolleyes:

Roubini was a one hit wonder. He has been wrong for 11 years in a row. Maybe he will get it right again but he has been spinning this same record the entire time.

Edit: Haha. I can't believe what I just read. He has lost it. By the way he is an eccentric guy with molds of vagina's in his New York apartment. His presidential prediction is based on hope and not reality.

[Johnny630]

No

[JustinD]

Temporarily- unquestionably yes

[mintacular]

I think GaryV's assumption about "sneaker heads" entering the market is just that, and ASSumption. Sure, I bet he talked to a few bro's who are new to the new market but that's probably mostly anecdotal........ To extrapolate that an army of non-card guys are now buying big $ cards is more speculation than anything..... As for the market, yes, bad economic times results in greater supply and therefore lower prices. And of course lower demand as many buyers are not in the mood to stockpile their PC

[Dpeck100]

I think GaryV's assumption about "sneaker heads" entering the market is just that, and ASSumption. Sure, I bet he talked to a few bro's who might not otherwise buy cards that are now doing so.... But to extrapolate that a ton of non-card guys are now buying cards is more speculation than anything..... As for the market, yes, bad economic times results in greater supply and therefore lower prices. And of course lower demand as many buyers are not in the mood to stockpile their PC


You should read his Twitter. This isn't speculation. They worship him.

[mintacular]

Well, watch out. High end basketball card guy spending half a mill on an altered MJ insert will end up holding the bag, charlatans like GaryV come and go, in a few years he will be a footnote in the hobby

[Dpeck100]

Well, watch out. High end basketball card guy spending half a mill on an altered MJ insert will end up holding the bag, charlatans like GaryV come and go, in a few years he will be a footnote in the hobby

The basketball card market has gone nuts. I am not just talking about these inserts that have gone for huge money. Gary proclaimed on his Twitter thread a year ago he was buying in bulk (100) PSA 10's of Giannis Antetokounmpo and they were $400. Now they are $1,600. Obviously the price is a moving target but it is up a ton. His followers are losing their minds and treating him like a card guru. He pointed out Lebron's that have gone from $1,000 to $6,000. Once again he is like a prophet to them.

I don't profess to know where this ends but it is all over the place. Look at Patrick Mahomes cards. I can't honestly say I would have had the foresight to buy his cards. They are up dramatically. This younger crowd is willing to role the dice and play the buy high and hope to sell higher later game.

When you have cards doing this it brings in buyers.

I am almost 41 and have been around the block with trading options. There is a new guy in my office that is 27 and he wants in. He reads on Reddit daily about the dudes gaming the system with Robinhood or someone else who risks it all on TSLA calls and it pans out. He wants in. You can play options with little money and either lose it all or kill it. Same thing with cards.

There was a thread on CU years ago where a guy was flipping his way to a 52 Mantle. He started with a small amount and did it. Stories like this keep people coming in to play the lottery.

The high end basketball card guy has an insane collection that includes a PSA 10 Aaron so I am not going to judge him. More power to him.

[mintacular]

Make sure your 27-year old friend watches this video before he buys in:

https://youtu.be/UM9WT-namdw

[Johnny630]

The tell tale factor will be the upcoming presidential election. Sure the virus has caused fear and uncertainty but it’s also one parties leading nominee whom has a lot of Wall Street Scared Sh+tless

[Dpeck100]

Make sure your 27-year old friend watches this video before he buys in:

https://youtu.be/UM9WT-namdw

He doesn't want into cards. Options on stocks.

Point was the pursuit of profits draws people in.

Why were there buyers of TSLA at over $900? Because it was up. Same thing drives a lot of the card market.

I am not a flipper. No reason to have nearly 30 Andre 82's so I don't fit the profile.

Just realize it exists.

[Johnny630]

He doesn't want into cards. Options on stocks.

Point was the pursuit of profits draws people in.

Why were there buyers of TSLA at over $900? Because it was up. Same thing drives a lot of the card market.

I am not a flipper. No reason to have nearly 30 Andre 82's so I don't fit the profile.
Just realize it exists.

Exactly Bingo Right Emotion Driven Momentum is extremely strong look at last week in the markets.

Doesn’t have to be REAL

[Dpeck100]

The tell tale factor will be the upcoming presidential election. Sure the virus has caused fear and uncertainty but it’s also one parties leading nominee whom has a lot of Wall Street Scared Sh+tless

What is fascinating is both sides are scared to death.

I was at a conference seven years ago and Chis Mathewson was the guest speaker. He made fun of all of us because he assumed as financial people we were all Republicans. He knows it is 90% or more so not a stretch. That said guys like him are petrified. Anyone with a first grade math education realizes no one wins.

[Dpeck100]

Make sure your 27-year old friend watches this video before he buys in:

https://youtu.be/UM9WT-namdw


There easily could be a bubble. That said it is hard to say. In 1985 Dwight Gooden was the card to have. There were over a million printed and it reached a trad able value of over $15. That is a market cap of over 15 million. With drastically less printed today these same cards will sell at a massive premium to this and probably have a similar market cap. Hard to know what happens. Hard to argue though with those who successfully forecasted stardom and put their money behind the cards.

[mintacular]

There easily could be a bubble. That said it is hard to say. In 1985 Dwight Gooden was the card to have. There were over a million printed and it reached a trad able value of over $15. That is a market cap of over 15 million. With drastically less printed today these same cards will sell at a massive premium to this and probably have a similar market cap. Hard to know what happens. Hard to argue though with those who successfully forecasted stardom and put their money behind the cards.

I'm not sure this is true, the video I posted proves as much

[Dpeck100]

I'm not sure this is true, the video I posted proves as much

Patrick. Most of these cards come out of packs in high grade. 10k plus might be 40% to 50% of the total supply. There are not a million plus of these cards printed.

[mintacular]

Ok, so point is there are going to be a lot more 10s of modern cards than 10s of 80s Darryl Stawberry or whomever--so how do higher supply 10s of modern cards hold the same value to 80s 10's that are much harder to hit? Also, the bottom 95% of total supply doesn't matter on cards like these ultimately it's only the top 5% and there will be drastically more 10s on modern than 80s to vintage

[Dpeck100]

Ok, so point is there are going to be a lot more 10s of modern cards than 10s of 80s Darryl Stawberry or whomever--

So why would you conclude the $15 Strawberry PSA 10 (in much lower supply) is equivalent to the PSA 10 modern star which would be in much greater supply?

I am not.

In 1985 we didn't get cards graded. Kids just saw the value in Beckett and said this is what it is worth. Dealers in many cases too.

If there are 1 million printed and the card books for $15 it has a $15 million dollar market cap.

If today there are 30,000 printed and it books for $500 it has a $15 million dollar market cap. The lower supply simply allows for the cards to trade for more and of course we have inflation.

Long term no one knows what they are worth. That said a 1993 SP Jeter that has over 15,000 copies graded by PSA alone was worth $6,500 in a PSA 10 in 2009 when I got really active buying cards. There were countless people who said at $15,000 it was the most overvalued card in the hobby. At $24,000 it was insane. No way the $30,000 sale was real. You can't be serious it sold for $37,000. And on and on. Now close to $200,000. This stuff is hard to predict but one thing is true once a horse leaves the barn it is hard to get it back in.

I was made fun of for saying a Hogan PSA 9 was a great buy for $75. Today it is at least $5,000. I didn't know that then and believed it would go up a lot but was just lucky not to sell and keep buying various copies on the way up.

[brianp-beme]

I know 2008 through 2011 or so was a time to pick up vintage cards cheap. Good possibility 2020 through ? will be the same way.

Brian

[mintacular]

You make some valid points but I'm not sure where the 30,000 vs. 1 million assumption is coming from?

[Dpeck100]

You make some valid points but I'm not sure where the 30,000 vs. 1 million assumption is coming from?

They under no circumstances print anywhere close to as many cards today. I made a guess of 30,000. It might be 50,000 but it certainly isn't a million. I am close to 41 and from the time I was in kindergarten into early middle school you could find packs of cards everywhere. Grocery stores, convenience stores, gift shops, card shops, card shows, and at baseball games. Good luck with this today. Just viewing the distribution channels it is easy to see the overall supply is drastically lower. I read at one point Topps had reduced production by 80% and that was years ago. Anyone trying to suggest the card production is similar to 1991 Topps is delusional. I don't assume you think that as that would be nuts.

[mintacular]

Walmart and Target? They carry tons of this product don't they? Pretty sure much more than 50K nationwide?

[sbfinley]

Since we are wandering down this hole, I believe the rough estimate for 2020 Topps series 1 is 250,000 not including factory sets.

[Dpeck100]

Since we are wandering down this hole, I believe the rough estimate for 2020 Topps series 1 is 250,000 not including factory sets.

Good info.

I did a little digging and the estimate for 1991 Topps is 3 to 5 million.

If baseball card production has gone up in recent years that is great and there are quite a few hobbyists that believe the card market will die out in the coming years due to lack of interest and perhaps this is a sign that future generations will remain interested.

The card manufactures figured out long ago that they couldn't produce as many and the focus obviously became on chase cards to move packs.

[Johnny630]

Also set building for modern cards is a thing of the past. They only want to high end insert numbered cards. Check out all the case breaks on eBay and break ninja it’s a total business and or gamble/speculative investment.

Many love the gambling aspect on Facebook as well with Razing of Graded Cards. It was super hot the past two years now it has died off drastically. People still do it but it’s not as hot as it was. Most Razzed cards from
What I’ve seen are not good lookin examples for their grades.

[90feetaway]

The virus scare is fueling the stock market decline. If the infection seriously spreads in the U.S. that will spook people out I think. In that case, buying cards won't be a priority. Already I hear people are paying $200 for masks on Amazon.

[Snapolit1]

It depends.

[Hankphenom]

For actual collectors, what difference does it make? Decisions will continue to be made according to changing circumstances both in the marketplace and in one's personal financial situation. In other words, it will be, as ever, "collect what you like, can afford, and want to spend your money on." For some, it could be a great opportunity to pick up more stuff at better prices; for others, it might mean having to sell stuff to make up for losses or meet margin calls. For the hobby in aggregate, I don't think it will mean much, as I don't recall precipitous price drops or any kind of flooding of the market in previous financial and economic crises, more of a slowdown in activity and stall in prices for a year or two before a return to normalcy.

[Rich Klein]

They under no circumstances print anywhere close to as many cards today. I made a guess of 30,000. It might be 50,000 but it certainly isn't a million. I am close to 41 and from the time I was in kindergarten into early middle school you could find packs of cards everywhere. Grocery stores, convenience stores, gift shops, card shops, card shows, and at baseball games. Good luck with this today. Just viewing the distribution channels it is easy to see the overall supply is drastically lower. I read at one point Topps had reduced production by 80% and that was years ago. Anyone trying to suggest the card production is similar to 1991 Topps is delusional. I don't assume you think that as that would be nuts.

David:

I know Mike Sommer did an analysis after Topps did the million card rip early this month and he thought that was about 2 percent of the total print run of 2020 Series 1 Topps.

Assuming 25 percent of the cards were not base cards (which I think is correct in a Jumbo pack) that means approximately 2272 (we'll round down to 2250 for our purposes) of each base card was pulled.

If that really was 2 percent of the total run; that means 2250 X 50 is the amount of each base card produced (There are no SP's in basic Topps -- the SP's are considered parallels)

That means 112,500 or so of each base card was produced for 2020 S1. That number might actually be a bit low when you consider factory sets and more later so I'm going to add 10 percent and round

125K of each 2020 Series 1 base card was issued. Yes, no other set comes close to this print run but that's the best answer I can get.

And that's why just about base card will end up in your local card show dime box :)

Rich

[Rich Klein]

And as for the stock market affecting card prices -- I think the person who said employment is more important that stock market -- I think that person is correct

Rich

[samosa4u]

Whether one likes Gary Vee or doesn't he signaled last year that the sneaker heads were going to take their fast cash and bring it to cards and they did and basketball cards have exploded.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Like you said, every area in the hobby is really hot right now. Your PSA 9 Hogan was under a hundred bucks at one time and now it's going for about five grand, right? I have also shipped so many vintage hockey cards to America. Americans want the rookies of Bobby Hull, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, etc. I think what happened is that baseball cards became so expensive, so collectors started putting their money into other sports.

Nice to see you posting, btw.

[Dpeck100]

I'm not sure I agree with this. Like you said, every area in the hobby is really hot right now. Your PSA 9 Hogan was under a hundred bucks at one time and now it's going for about five grand, right? I have also shipped so many vintage hockey cards to America. Americans want the rookies of Bobby Hull, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, etc. I think what happened is that baseball cards became so expensive, so collectors started putting their money into other sports.

Nice to see you posting, btw.


I am not suggesting they are the sole cause for prices expanding. If I wasn't clear about this I apologize. What I am saying is the number market participants expanded and these sneaker heads are part of it. They are more speculators than collectors and you are seeing a lot of speculative activity.

I wasn't informed of this segment of collectibles but I have two clients with sons in college and it is all the rage. They are signing up for fresh released shoes on lists and then flipping them on Stock Ex for five times the price before they even own them. The fast money drives this crowd and obviously cards can exchange hands for more immediately.

My view is there is renewed interest in cards and it is spreading.

[LincolnVT]

If you have money to invest, I feel that high end real property (cards / memorabilia / gold / silver) is currently a better investment than the market.

[samosa4u]

I am not suggesting they are the sole cause for prices expanding. If I wasn't clear about this I apologize. What I am saying is the number market participants expanded and these sneaker heads are part of it. They are more speculators than collectors and you are seeing a lot of speculative activity.


Alright, got you.

[Dpeck100]

Alright, got you.

I think these same folks are what is fueling the rise because they aren't afraid of the downside because they are so used to winning on these shoes.

Many collectors will simply pass on something once it was risen in their view too much. Wait for a dip.

These are momentum investors willing to buy because the price is expanding.

[Fred]

Honestly, I hope EVERYTHING takes a huge dump in price and the card hobby (not business) sees an overdue correction. Wouldn't it be nice to collect what you like without worrying about what a card market downturn will do to your collections value? Holy crap, it's only frigging card board... someone should start a thread called "when it was a hobby".

[Leon]

Nowadays if you wait a day or two the stock market will change quite a bit. I think it does affect prices somewhat.

[iwantitiwinit]

Yes it will.

[Goudey77]

I'm mostly a vintage collector but I always keep my eyes and ears open to the modern card collecting/investing market. It helps me understand the psychology behind what's driving the overall card sales.

It appears the market is as hot as ever in March 2020.
This YouTube vlogger does statistical analysis on actual eBay sales data. Take a few minutes to watch this video and you'll see some of the card market activity which has been as good as 300% increases on certain cards.

How does it correlate to the current state of the stock market? I think people are pulling money out of stocks and parking the cash in cards. (something younger people would risk)

How does it correlate to the vintage card market? A lot of these collectors/investors graduate to older cards. It's the evolution of a collector.

What does it mean for most Net54 members? Not much. We are a usually frugal and a suspicious bunch who keeps our niche part of the market slow and steady.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X3Cx9Dfly6s" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[packs]

I don't know why anyone would take their money out of the market. Now is the time to buy.

[Exhibitman]

The virus scare is fueling the stock market decline. If the infection seriously spreads in the U.S. that will spook people out I think. In that case, buying cards won't be a priority. Already I hear people are paying $200 for masks on Amazon.

But are they base set or numbered chrome rookie masks?

[Johnny630]

I don't know why anyone would take their money out of the market. Now is the time to buy.

Exactly!!!

I much rather be card poor and stock rich then card rich and stock poor.

It’s all a fairytale

[Goudey77]

I agree with all your sentiments. But please understand that for the most part Net54 members represent the old school perspective in cards and life in general.

Everything that is happening with the modern card market is counterintuitive to traditional investments. It's a new generation. Actually several generations removed from Net54 members in some cases :rolleyes:
Just roll with it and enjoy the viewing party.

[iwantitiwinit]

I don't know why anyone would take their money out of the market. Now is the time to buy.

I disagree. We are trying to deal with a non-economic root problem here using economic remedies. Too many unknowns to jump in just yet. Better off waiting until the virus wanes a bit then slowly work back in. Don't be a hero trying to pick the bottom, better off losing 10% on the upside getting in a bit later than to lose 50% more on the down side.

[packs]

I disagree. We are trying to deal with a non-economic root problem here using economic remedies. Too many unknowns to jump in just yet. Better off waiting until the virus wanes a bit then slowly work back in. Don't be a hero trying to pick the bottom, better off losing 10% on the upside getting in a bit later than to lose 50% more on the down side.


Timing the market is largely a myth. It's a fool's errand for 99 percent of the people who try it. If you've got the expendable cash, buy now. If you've got money in the market, let it ride. I think you'll find that opinion being the predominant one from any financial adviser. Pulling your money will only mean you reap no benefit when the market turns (which it inevitably will). And in almost every scenario you'll be buying new stocks with old money at higher costs than what you previously owned. Which means you end up spending more money to own less stock.

[iwantitiwinit]

Timing the market is largely a myth. It's a fool's errand for 99 percent of the people who try it. If you've got the expendable cash, buy now. If you've got money in the market, let it ride. I think you'll find that opinion being the predominant one from any financial adviser. Pulling your money will only mean you reap no benefit when the market turns (which it inevitably will). And in almost every scenario you'll be buying new stocks with old money at higher costs than what you previously owned. Which means you end up spending more money to own less stock.

I didn't say anything about pulling your money I only mentioned my opinion about buying now. Good luck to you.

[Leon]

Timing the market is largely a myth. It's a fool's errand for 99 percent of the people who try it. If you've got the expendable cash, buy now. If you've got money in the market, let it ride. I think you'll find that opinion being the predominant one from any financial adviser. Pulling your money will only mean you reap no benefit when the market turns (which it inevitably will). And in almost every scenario you'll be buying new stocks with old money at higher costs than what you previously owned. Which means you end up spending more money to own less stock.

My seat of the pants opinion is .....I agree that except for extraordinary circumstances, where cash is needed for something else, this isn't the time to sell. It is too volatile. Pick a good company/stock/fund to invest in, with good long term fundamentals in place and stick to the course. At least that is my philosophy at this juncture :).

and yes, I do think it effects card prices, at least somewhat.

[Hankphenom]

...then everyone should sell now at the relative top of the market and put every dollar into the best old baseball cards and memorabilia they can find. Disclaimer: I am probably the worst investment advisor on the planet, never owned a stock or bond, always preferred to have cash and other things I could see and touch. I have also never lost a minute's sleep over it and lived quite comfortably.

[Goudey77]

Hank you must be from the pre war era. I don’t blame you for your philosophy. Stick to your beliefs and live your best life.

[Hankphenom]

Hank you must be from the pre war era. I don’t blame you for your philosophy. Stick to your beliefs and live your best life.
Which war? I've lived through far too many of them. Born in April '46, leading edge Boomer. Dad was discharged from the Army Air Corps at the end of WWII, you do the math. Thanks, Martin, and all good wishes to you, too. I've just always done what I felt was right for me and those in my circle, no philosophy, really. Not long ago I mentioned at a party that I'd never owned a cell phone and had a young guy literally implore me not to go there. I realize most people can't do without one, and it's not like I'm anti-tech, I love things like FB and Net54, I just don't want them around and beckoning to me everywhere I go.

[ullmandds]

Don’t know many people buying high dollar baseball cards this morning?

[Brian Van Horn]

The official reply from Smart Alecks Anonymous:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdbpmeUODME

[Republicaninmass]

Don’t know many people buying high dollar baseball cards this morning?


Funny I dont many people SELLING either. Guess they will post tonight once losses set in.


HA!

[Hankphenom]

Don’t know many people buying high dollar baseball cards this morning?

On the other hand, there's going to be a LOT of cash floating around after all the selling and no good place to put it. If a lot of good stuff starts coming out at softer prices, there will be temptation for the actual collectors out there to act on the opportunity to pick stuff up. In general, however, your point is well taken and I do anticipate a freezing up of this market along with many others. I remember setting up at the Reading show in September '08 the weekend of the financial meltdown and there was literally no buying or selling going on, probably the strangest show I ever did from a business standpoint, everyone just sitting on their hands not knowing what was going to happen next.

[Huysmans]

Hank you must be from the pre war era. I don’t blame you for your philosophy. Stick to your beliefs and live your best life.

Martin, you sound like you were born five minutes ago, in the modern shiny junk era - which is fitting. I'm sure you don't even have a philosophy yet, how could you? Don't stick to any juvenile beliefs, because as you mature and get wiser, your views will undoubtedly change. This you'll learn. I'd add more youngster, but I'm getting tired and it's starting to get hard to see the monitor, plus your young mind is probably already drifting to video games, taking photos of your food, social media complaining/whining and learning the latest cool slang word to impress your "peeps" :p

[bbcard1]

It's interesting Gary Vee has been pushing baseball cards as an investment pretty hard. I am happy to report he's bullish on shiny and seems to care little about mid grade reward cards.

[sportscardpete]

I think baseball cards are just like any other collectible - you have rare items that will always have a bid and you have some "momentum" type cards that will lose a lot of money when the buying pool is trimmed. People that have big money into cards (for the most part) are usually not affected by wild market swings. The real issue will be the over-leveraged collections that need liquidity.

I also think we've been a bit lucky in terms of not seeing that many drawdowns over the years. They happen. You save some cash, deploy what you can, and the collection should grow over time. If you're using discretionary spending wisely any discount in cards should be well received.

[Nunzio11]

What market volatility? As of Jan 12th the PWCC 100 Index is up 290% since Jan 2008. :rolleyes::D

[Johnny630]

Who are the ones actually buying these cards at record numbers?

I’m not buying it, neither the cards or the whole premise, are you?

[Republicaninmass]

Who is selling stocks at record lows? Just doesnt make sense

[Shoeless Moe]

You need to watch the King of Queens episode where they buy the stock. The 1st day it goes up. They are excited. Next day goes down a little. Next day, down a little more. So they then panic and think we are going to lose it all, so they think better to sell now and get something. They sell, then it goes up. They buy back in.

Moral of the story is just let it sit there. But there are people out there who panic, or people close to retirement counting on it, but if you got 10-20-30 years til retirement, ignore it.

Hey I've stopped drinking Corona beer, I don't want to catch that virus.

[Hankphenom]

Who is selling stocks at record lows? Just doesnt make sense

Wha? Eleven years ago the Dow was at 8,500, now it's 24,000.

[Brian Van Horn]

Wha? Eleven years ago the Dow was at 8,500, now it's 24,000.

No worries. At the rate it's dropping it will be back to 8500 by a week from Thursday, Friday tops. Gas will also be cheap. :rolleyes:

[Exhibitman]

No worries. At the rate it's dropping it will be back to 8500 by a week from Thursday, Friday tops. Gas will also be cheap. :rolleyes:

Not that we can go anywhere due to the plague...

They better get this crap sorted out by July. I have tickets for Green Day at Dodgers Stadium and I need my fix.

[ullmandds]

Funny I dont many people SELLING either. Guess they will post tonight once losses set in.


HA!

I DO see some selling? I'm seeing some quality cards on BST and elsewhere for kinda reasonable prices.

[Goudey77]

Hi Brent, My words were of support and agreement of doing things with a personal perspective. I'm not about online bullying or pushing my beliefs onto others.

Thanks for the comment.

Martin.

Martin, you sound like you were born five minutes ago, in the modern shiny junk era - which is fitting. I'm sure you don't even have a philosophy yet, how could you? Don't stick to any juvenile beliefs, because as you mature and get wiser, your views will undoubtedly change. This you'll learn. I'd add more youngster, but I'm getting tired and it's starting to get hard to see the monitor, plus your young mind is probably already drifting to video games, taking photos of your food, social media complaining/whining and learning the latest cool slang word to impress your "peeps" :p

[Touch'EmAll]

Thank goodness I have more than just stocks. I have baseball cards...whew! Diversify they say.

[todeen]

Thank goodness I have more than just stocks. I have baseball cards...whew! Diversify they say.Lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Johnny630]

Has Anyone Heard about the Status is this Years National due to the Coronavirus?

[ullmandds]

Has Anyone Heard about the Status is this Years National due to the Coronavirus?

Highly unlikely you will be hearing anything about the national 5 months prior to the event.

[Exhibitman]

Coronavirus vs. traveling to AC is a push as far as I am concerned...

[mechanicalman]

Coronavirus vs. traveling to AC is a push as far as I am concerned...

Instant classic.

[perezfan]

Coronavirus vs. traveling to AC is a push as far as I am concerned...

Yup... If this doesn't subside well before July, it may just be the lowest attended National of all-time...

Dreadful location
Horrible access
Bad restaurants and dirty hotels
Coronavirus threat
Struggling economy- possible recession by then
Airplanes/hotels/shared confines not appealing
Tons of bodies crammed indoors, all under one roof
Sharing and handling of cards, touching cases, exchanging money, etc.

The rigid and frugal people who run this convention will never cancel it. But I could easily see it being the worst-attended, least exciting one ever.

[Johnny630]

Yup... If this doesn't subside well before July, it may just be the lowest attended National of all-time...

Dreadful location
Horrible access
Bad restaurants and dirty hotels
Coronavirus threat
Struggling economy- possible recession by then
Airplanes/hotels/shared confines not appealing
Tons of bodies crammed indoors, all under one roof
Sharing and handling of cards, touching cases, exchanging money, etc.

The rigid and frugal people who run this convention will never cancel it. But I could easily see it being the worst-attended, least exciting one ever.

Agree....all the big money sales are through online auction houses
IMO The National Has Been Show and Tell for the Past Several Years since 2014......how many people bring 50k plus to shows?

[Bicem]

Pretty sad when you're looking forward to Cleveland.

[Snapolit1]

At this point PWCC may be renting out cots so that people can sleep in the Vault with their cards.

[Republicaninmass]

Well if it isn't doom and gloom over the PSA scandal, its coronavirus fears, recession etc.

Probably a guess. But arent their more people on the nyc subway EVERYDAY then the total amount of people at the national over 5 days? Gra ted hygiene maybe a question for the latter.


Sell your cards, the end is nigh

[perezfan]

Well if it isn't doom and gloom over the PSA scandal, its coronavirus fears, recession etc.

Probably a guess. But arent their more people on the nyc subway EVERYDAY then the total amount of people at the national over 5 days? Gra ted hygiene maybe a question for the latter.


Sell your cards, the end is nigh

Yeah, the subways and other mass public transportation have got to be lots worse...

But it's the combination of the horrible location, travel fears, people conglomerating from all over the country, economic threats, and coronavirus worries all bundled together that could make for a lackluster National.

Just my personal prediction.... I hope those who actually go have a blast! :cool:

[Snapolit1]

Every National in AC gets shit on by 80% of the board. De riguer. No one is going. Then the show has a great turn out. Really inconvenient. It's like an hour drive from Philadelphia. Or a little over 2.5 hours from NYC. No good restaurants? Comical. Crime ridden? Not really, but obviously has problems. Less than 10 homicides a year. No, it's not basically next door to an airport like Chicago National is. No one will go and it will be crowded as hell, just like last time.

[Bicem]

How's the commute for West Coasters?

[Goudey77]

How's the commute for West Coasters?

I would like to know what this experience is like. As i'm considering a visit to this years national in Atlantic City. The Casino resort i'm looking at has rates of $296 and $396 a night for that weekend.

[Bicem]

5+ hour flight to Philadelphia, 1+ hour drive to AC when I went last time from Seattle. The travel time is really the only reason I'm not attending this year for the first time in a long time.

[Snapolit1]

How's the commute for West Coasters?

It's not flying to Chicago. Sure there are plenty of options with 1 flight connection into Philly. Not that I want to get on any airplane currently.

[Snapolit1]

The Chicago experience is extraordinarily convenient for many many people. Obviously. And if someone says I'm not going because it's inconvenient for me, that's a subjective call. But when people start posting things like "there are no good restaurants" or you can't leave your hotel its so dangerous . . . well, they obviously have no clue. (As far as the food goes, you will not find any of that horrible Chicago deep dish pizza crap, if that's what you are looking for.)

[Bicem]

Agreed, food in AC is fine, and it's as safe as any other place more or less, for me it's really about no major airport, should be a prerequisite for hosting a National.

[Shoeless Moe]

Coronavirus - 4,300 dead

WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that.

Take advantage of the over-reactors. Now is the time.

[JollyElm]

I'm buying up all the Gregg Jefferies rookie cards I can find. Soon, I will be in the money!!!!!!!

[Exhibitman]

5+ hour flight to Philadelphia, 1+ hour drive to AC when I went last time from Seattle. The travel time is really the only reason I'm not attending this year for the first time in a long time.

You forgot some stuff. I get 2 hours to get to LAX (versus half an hour to Burbank) plus another 2 hours to get into the airport, check in and clear security and reach my gate, plus 5-6 hours to get there at least (weather, you see; haven't made a summer trip to the East Coast on time in years...last AC show I flew to we were diverted to Buffalo for 8 hours to wait out a thunderstorm), plus an hour to get my bag and my car, plus 1-2 hours to drive to AC. Then a hour to tear apart my room looking for the bedbugs (ask Silverman about his Caesar's bedbug experience if you don't believe me). Yeah...hard pass. All that assumes that a fat 55 year old asthmatic slob like me isn't more or less grounded due to the virus.

Assuming this stupid-ass plague is in hand by then and I can even hop a plane, I'm probably gonna go see if there are any card shows in Kona.

http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/dropins/websize/IMG_0195.JPG

If air travel is still a no-no, I guess I'll just have to make do with a week on the beaches in Malibu

http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/dropins/websize/caligirls.jpg

Hang loose, brothers...

[Santo10Fan]

I'm buying up all the Gregg Jefferies rookie cards I can find. Soon, I will be in the money!!!!!!! Hoping those 175 Rashaan Salaam rookies I bought off my uncle will spike soon

[Exhibitman]

Hoping those 175 Rashaan Salaam rookies I bought off my uncle will spike soon

Still have my box of Steve Balboni, Kevin Maas, and Joe Charboneau...the stuff dreams are made of.

[Leon]

I am thinking my cards are a bit better than my stocks at this point. The stock market is a freaking yo-yo.

[steve B]

Well if it isn't doom and gloom over the PSA scandal, its coronavirus fears, recession etc.

Probably a guess. But arent their more people on the nyc subway EVERYDAY then the total amount of people at the national over 5 days? Gra ted hygiene maybe a question for the latter.


Sell your cards, the end is nigh

Where's John Rocker when we need him?

[steve B]

If I ever make it to a national, it will probably be in Atlantic City.
It's close enough I could drive, and go for a day.

The other places aren't.

[darwinbulldog]

Coronavirus - 4,300 dead

WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that.

Take advantage of the over-reactors. Now is the time.

There was also a time in the late 30s when WWII had a death toll of 4,300. If you don't recognize that the toll from the virus is likely to be in the millions before the end of the year then you maybe haven't run the numbers. It appears to be lethal in at least 1% of cases and is likely to infect over 1 billion people.

More to the point, people as a species recover from anything shy of extinction, but my understanding is that WWII actually was bad, recovery notwithstanding.

[Dpeck100]

There was also a time in the late 30s when WWII had a death toll of 4,300. If you don't recognize that the toll from the virus is likely to be in the millions before the end of the year then you maybe haven't run the numbers. It appears to be lethal in at least 1% of cases and is likely to infect over 1 billion people.

More to the point, people as a species recover from anything shy of extinction, but my understanding is that WWII actually was bad, recovery notwithstanding.


I am not an expert on health but infecting nearly 15% of the global population seems pretty extreme. Ohio is trying to suggest that 100,000 people have it and those numbers are wildly inflated according to many medical experts so I am hopeful your estimates are too. By the way so far 13 have tested positive so that is a long way from 100,000.

[Dpeck100]

This doesn't exactly look like a give away.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-Roberto-Clemente-ROOKIE-RC-164-PSA-8-NM-MT-PWCC/352990161555?hash=item522fda6a93:g:BIAAAOSwGg5eXaO d

This sale makes me sick because I remember when this card was just breaking a grand.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/114137086346?_trksid=p2471758.m4704

A BGS 9.5 Jordan brings 21k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-1987-Fleer-Michael-Jordan-57-Rookie-Card-BGS-9-5-GEM-MINT-Like-PSA-10/293421588375?epid=97258201&hash=item44514a1f97:g:UMgAAOSwKFNeG9oG

PSA 2 Mantle goes for over 20k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-Mickey-Mantle-311-PSA-2-GD-PWCC-A/143545997303?hash=item216c0217f7:g:~EMAAOSwz2VeXZu 1

The hobby isn't slowing down. There are so many collectors that aren't worried about the stock market and it doesn't influence their purchase decisions. I have long argued that hard assets are very attractive to many because regardless of price you still own it.

The wrestling card niche that I am involved in saw explosive auction prices on the last batch of cards that were auctioned off this week. Shockingly high prices. They aren't multi thousand dollar cards but some up 400% or more from prior comps.

Not everyone gets killed when the market falls. I had my biggest trade ever last week and I am kicking myself for not making the same trade yesterday that would have been incredible today. If I want to go hard after a card I am in my best position ever financially and there will be no impact from this virus on my bidding.

Cash flow is king so the issue will be employment trends and in my view this is a multi month issue and the country will come roaring back.

Most of the best cards don't come available frequently and so it is doubtful they will be offered during this time and so even if prices were to dip they won't on the best stuff.

I posted a handful of higher profile cards and I don't see any issues with their prices.

[Goudey77]

David, I agree the good stuff will hold strong. It’s the modern basketball flippers I’m worried about. That Clemente and Mantle were good buys. Thought they’d go slightly higher but still within range.

[drcy]

i was told that the virus can live on hard surfaces, but not cardboard.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW, which admittedly is not much, my eBay sales are still about average.

[Dpeck100]

David, I agree the good stuff will hold strong. It’s the modern basketball flippers I’m worried about. That Clemente and Mantle were good buys. Thought they’d go slightly higher but still within range.


These modern flippers have bid cards up six fold in many cases. When something goes parabolic and finds itself on the other side it can be viscous on the downside.

I think we need to look at cards in the aggregate and the game is far from over.

My little niche is not indicative of the overall card market but there are zero deals to be had. Every item that has any perceived value is highly contested.

When I see Jordan PSA 9's in some cases going for 10k it is hard to suggest the market is soft.

My largest client has a lot of business in China. It died for two months and has come roaring back overnight. If this is the case as most expect in the US it isn't long enough of a slump to hurt the market.

If someone has to sell during this environment perhaps it is soft but the reality is most of the high profile cards from every genre are in strong hands. I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.

[Republicaninmass]

The ebayers have begun trying to strike a chord

"Due to the world's condition, I really shouldn't be buying cards, but I'd offer you half of you asking price"

[seanofjapan]

I predict that the market for junk wax is going to take off once their absorptive qualities become better known.

[joshuanip]

what We’re seeing is credit deflation in a longer term debt cycle. Each time we had losses, 2001, 2008, 2020, global central banks would reflate is through more debt. At first the debt was mostly at first private, until the great financial crisis (GFC) which was a generational transfer of price to public debt in. Bid to bail out private sector. But each reflation, due to unnaturally low interest rates, market participants understated their cost of capital and led to misuse of capital, ala tech bubble in 2001, real estate in 2008 and the everything bubble in 2019. And each bailout became larger and larger until it is now (hopefully not) seem to be pushing on a string in fed policy.

Coming back to cards, cards appreciated along with every other asset class in this race to zero interest rate policy (zirp). But as we are now in a period of deflation, we will embark on an even bigger globally coordinated stimulus plan so we can one more day, blow bubbles. Which will lead to even higher asset prices, attack of the middle class, further capital moral location and an even larger potential debt crisis down the road.

Back to your point, I do believe the stock market volatility will adversely impact the prices in our hobby. at the same time I believe there will be the mother of all qE that will be unleashed soon, as we never had such a quick shut down on Main Street and Wall Street.

[earlywynnfan]

Coronavirus - 4,300 dead

WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that.

Take advantage of the over-reactors. Now is the time.

Kudos, sir, for what has to be the most spectacularly asinine analogy of all time! I had to walk away and come back to see if I was reading it correctly.

So what you're saying is, as long as the coronavirus doesn't break that 75 million dead threshold, we're "over-reacting" and the world will be "fine"??

[vthobby]

what We’re seeing is credit deflation in a longer term debt cycle. Each time we had losses, 2001, 2008, 2020, global central banks would reflate is through more debt. At first the debt was mostly at first private, until the great financial crisis (GFC) which was a generational transfer of price to public debt in. Bid to bail out private sector. But each reflation, due to unnaturally low interest rates, market participants understated their cost of capital and led to misuse of capital, ala tech bubble in 2001, real estate in 2008 and the everything bubble in 2019. And each bailout became larger and larger until it is now (hopefully not) seem to be pushing on a string in fed policy.

Coming back to cards, cards appreciated along with every other asset class in this race to zero interest rate policy (zirp). But as we are now in a period of deflation, we will embark on an even bigger globally coordinated stimulus plan so we can one more day, blow bubbles. Which will lead to even higher asset prices, attack of the middle class, further capital moral location and an even larger potential debt crisis down the road.

Back to your point, I do believe the stock market volatility will adversely impact the prices in our hobby. at the same time I believe there will be the mother of all qE that will be unleashed soon, as we never had such a quick shut down on Main Street and Wall Street.

A couple weeks ago, I saw the market go up.......then it went down a lot........then it kind of went up, it spun down hard the next day and I got scared........ you know.......actually....... I like what Joshua says better......so....what he said! :)

[Tyruscobb]

I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.

Simple economics control card prices. Supply and demand set the market price. We’ve had a bull market for over a decade. This prosperity time has increased 401k values and disposable income. Investors and collectors have used this disposable income to purchase cards. This strong demand for cards has increased prices.

If we are entering a recession, 401k values will fall. Moreover, some people will lose their jobs. Those that do not have jobs will not have disposable income to spend on cards. Those that do not lose their jobs will save for a rainy day in case they lose their jobs. They will choose not to spend their disposable income on cards.

The demand will significantly decrease. When this occurs, the prices will fall. Those that have large inventories (supply) have two options. One: they can stop selling and try to ride out the storm. However, who knows how long the recession could last. It could take years for a recession to play out and then years for the prices to return to pre-recession levels. Two: they can sell into the weak demand at lower prices.

Basic economic laws disagree with your premise that higher prices will prevail. Good luck.

[drcy]

If someone has to sell during this environment perhaps it is soft but the reality is most of the high profile cards from every genre are in strong hands. I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.


That doesn't make much sense. At best, you don't sell the cards at the price you want because no one is willing to pay that much. Which means your "prices/values" are imaginary. eBay "museum sellers" have a similar philosophy: "My card is worth $10,000. No one's willing to pay half that much, but it's worth $10,000 because I say so." Market values are identified prices realized, which means buyers and what they are willing to pay most definitely are part of the value equation.

[brianp-beme]

What will all this mean for our Stocks and Bonds?

Brian

[mr2686]

Hopefully it will mean

[Dpeck100]

That doesn't make much sense. At best, you don't sell the cards at the price you want because no one is willing to pay that much. Which means your "prices/values" are imaginary. eBay "museum sellers" have a similar philosophy: "My card is worth $10,000. No one's willing to pay half that much, but it's worth $10,000 because I say so." Market values are identified prices realized, which means buyers and what they are willing to pay most definitely are part of the value equation.


I get the feeling most of this board doesn't actually watch EBAY completed sales or follow active auctions.

Right now there is a Jeter at 140k, a Kobe Bryant insert at 111k, and numerous other cards getting major action.

In a different thread someone asked about a Lebron that is from a year ago and I watched the final action and it went for over 11k.

The stock market and the card market are so much different in the way they trade. I believe we will hear about some high profile hedge funds that were over leveraged going into this and there could be some actual blow ups. Those that own cards unless they are forced to use those assets for liquidity can simple sit on them.

Two months from now or six months from now people will still want to own tangible assets and enjoy collecting. If this hurts the economy for a much longer period of time then yes it will create demand issues. China got back to work in two months and if that is the road map here I just don't see the catastrophic outlook for cards.

There are plenty of people like me that own cards that you can't simply get on EBAY and buy. Unless those same people who want the cards exit the market their interest doesn't wane but it grows. Over time that means higher prices.

I have lived through a number of corrections in the markets since 1998 when I began investing and trading. This is clearly the strangest one because it came out of no where. Comparing this decline to 2008 and 2009 in my view is not a good comparison. We had a two and half year slow down brewing where there were millions of people not paying their mortgages and upside down on home equity values. The stock market is important but so is the real estate market. I live in a pocket of Orlando and all through this so far homes listed are being snapped up at the same prices. This means at the moment that perceived equity is still in place for folks. In 2008 and 2009 that wasn't the case. The stock market collapsed, unemployment trends had been on the rise for quite awhile and homes values were decimated.

I only talk directly to a handful of collectors but none of them are heavy in the stock market and have plenty of resources and cards. I think you will find that there are lots of collectors who have positioned a larger percentage of their net worth in cards and aren't seeing drastic hits to their balance sheets in real time. My largest asset is my 401k and it is in cash.

Time will tell how this plays out and I know I will be checking EBAY daily looking for things to buy and hopefully some supply shows up that I want.

[Dpeck100]

Simple economics control card prices. Supply and demand set the market price. We’ve had a bull market for over a decade. This prosperity time has increased 401k values and disposable income. Investors and collectors have used this disposable income to purchase cards. This strong demand for cards has increased prices.

If we are entering a recession, 401k values will fall. Moreover, some people will lose their jobs. Those that do not have jobs will not have disposable income to spend on cards. Those that do not lose their jobs will save for a rainy day in case they lose their jobs. They will choose not to spend their disposable income on cards.

The demand will significantly decrease. When this occurs, the prices will fall. Those that have large inventories (supply) have two options. One: they can stop selling and try to ride out the storm. However, who knows how long the recession could last. It could take years for a recession to play out and then years for the prices to return to pre-recession levels. Two: they can sell into the weak demand at lower prices.

Basic economic laws disagree with your premise that higher prices will prevail. Good luck.


If one thinks this destroys the economy and it takes us years to get back on track then in that scenario it certainly could hurt card values.

So much of card values depends on who is buying and who owns the cards. Using only macro trends to predict these micro trends are impossible.

I have only been active online since 2010 and there has been no shortage of reasons as to why the card market was going to get hit. It has somehow prevailed and third party graders are backed up as far as the eye can see.

I am in finance and I am seeing first hand the damage that is being done to asset prices in real time. Then I flip over to EBAY and look at the nearly 8,000 auctions that PWCC has running right now and I can't see a similar scenario in real time.

What got me more interested in cards and diverting a large percentage of my disposable income in late 2009 and in subsequent years was how quickly I watched money evaporate trading options then. I liked the concept that even if I was wrong it wasn't going to zero.

There are many of us who have been working on our collections for a long time and quite frankly during environments like this it makes me happy I own it even more.

[Huysmans]

That doesn't make much sense. At best, you don't sell the cards at the price you want because no one is willing to pay that much. Which means your "prices/values" are imaginary. eBay "museum sellers" have a similar philosophy: "My card is worth $10,000. No one's willing to pay half that much, but it's worth $10,000 because I say so." Market values are identified prices realized, which means buyers and what they are willing to pay most definitely are part of the value equation.

+1

[hcv123]

Death rates of people infected with the disease have been running at between 3.6 and 3.7 percent globally (under 2% in the US). IF there are ultimately a million cases in the US that amounts to 20,000 and 37,000 deaths nationally - incredibly tragic for sure, but not the "sky is falling" scenario many are painting.

If "shutting down the country" for 2-3 weeks would be sufficient time to contain the virus, then our leaders need to stop pulling the band aid off slowly and just hit the pause button - it will ultimately hurt a lot less on a lot of levels then allowing all of the state and local responses that while well intentioned are insufficient at resolving a national problem.

That all said - I guess I land somewhere in the middle of what has been stated on the card market. For sure there are simple economics in play - supply and demand. Last time I checked a hard asset is only worth what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree on - not set by the seller or buyer alone. I believe for reasons mentioned above items in our hobby with larger supply will likely be affected negatively by the current environment as there will likely be less buyers and more sellers. I further believe items with limited supply will largely hold their values.

My 2 cents.

[obcmac]

How does your analysis change if we have 100-200 million cases in the U.S.?


Death rates of people infected with the disease have been running at between 3.6 and 3.7 percent globally (under 2% in the US). IF there are ultimately a million cases in the US that amounts to 20,000 and 37,000 deaths nationally - incredibly tragic for sure, but not the "sky is falling" scenario many are painting.

If "shutting down the country" for 2-3 weeks would be sufficient time to contain the virus, then our leaders need to stop pulling the band aid off slowly and just hit the pause button - it will ultimately hurt a lot less on a lot of levels then allowing all of the state and local responses that while well intentioned are insufficient at resolving a national problem.

That all said - I guess I land somewhere in the middle of what has been stated on the card market. For sure there are simple economics in play - supply and demand. Last time I checked a hard asset is only worth what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree on - not set by the seller or buyer alone. I believe for reasons mentioned above items in our hobby with larger supply will likely be affected negatively by the current environment as there will likely be less buyers and more sellers. I further believe items with limited supply will largely hold their values.

My 2 cents.

[Johnny630]

Who believes a lot of the sales for vintage post war cards in auction since 2014 were fiction ?

I do.

[Hankphenom]

Who believes a lot of the sales for vintage post war cards in auction since 2014 were fiction ? I do.

How so? What percentage?

[Shoeless Moe]

Kudos, sir, for what has to be the most spectacularly asinine analogy of all time! I had to walk away and come back to see if I was reading it correctly.

So what you're saying is, as long as the coronavirus doesn't break that 75 million dead threshold, we're "over-reacting" and the world will be "fine"??

YES OVER-reacting is an understatement. Saturday there were 58 dead, today 70.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

12 deaths in 2 days???? Please you get that on a normal day. This is a virus, yah a little stronger obviously, but it will come and go.

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Please read that article dated 2018 and explain to me how 80,000 died in 2018, in the US, and today Corona is at 70, and it's mass panic time, seems odd doesn't it?

Remember when the media had Hillary as a shoo in the White House. They can make you believe a lot, if they say it, it must be true right? I personally have no affiliation to either party so my speak isn't politically related like most are in the media. I can live with Trump or Biden. May the best man for the job win.

Viruses kill people each year.

70 dead since this broke in MID FEBRUARY.....and I think like 60% of these are from that one nursing home, who I'm sorry to say but once you are 80-90 there's a lot of stuff that can kill you.

PLAY BALL!!!!

[bobbyw8469]

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

Bingo. We have a winner!! And if you don't know why the media cares now, in an election year, then I can't help you.

[Fuddjcal]

You forgot some stuff. I get 2 hours to get to LAX (versus half an hour to Burbank) plus another 2 hours to get into the airport, check in and clear security and reach my gate, plus 5-6 hours to get there at least (weather, you see; haven't made a summer trip to the East Coast on time in years...last AC show I flew to we were diverted to Buffalo for 8 hours to wait out a thunderstorm), plus an hour to get my bag and my car, plus 1-2 hours to drive to AC. Then a hour to tear apart my room looking for the bedbugs (ask Silverman about his Caesar's bedbug experience if you don't believe me). Yeah...hard pass. All that assumes that a fat 55 year old asthmatic slob like me isn't more or less grounded due to the virus.

Assuming this stupid-ass plague is in hand by then and I can even hop a plane, I'm probably gonna go see if there are any card shows in Kona.

http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/dropins/websize/IMG_0195.JPG

If air travel is still a no-no, I guess I'll just have to make do with a week on the beaches in Malibu

http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/dropins/websize/caligirls.jpg

Hang loose, brothers...

The pic is so great Adam:p. I take my grandsons to Broad Beach when they come out and teach them how to "Laser Beam" out there and have several pics like that myself. :D I love So Cal! No need to go anywhere!

[Fuddjcal]

If one thinks this destroys the economy and it takes us years to get back on track then in that scenario it certainly could hurt card values.

So much of card values depends on who is buying and who owns the cards. Using only macro trends to predict these micro trends are impossible.

I have only been active online since 2010 and there has been no shortage of reasons as to why the card market was going to get hit. It has somehow prevailed and third party graders are backed up as far as the eye can see.

I am in finance and I am seeing first hand the damage that is being done to asset prices in real time. Then I flip over to EBAY and look at the nearly 8,000 auctions that PWCC has running right now and I can't see a similar scenario in real time.

What got me more interested in cards and diverting a large percentage of my disposable income in late 2009 and in subsequent years was how quickly I watched money evaporate trading options then. I liked the concept that even if I was wrong it wasn't going to zero.

There are many of us who have been working on our collections for a long time and quite frankly during environments like this it makes me happy I own it even more.

There's something about being able to "Hold" something of value. Like Castle Walls of 100's as I like to say:), 1 OZ Gold Coins, or even baseball cards. I don't really care if the price of gold is down or baseball cards are down because somehow, it feel better than owning stocks?

It's an old school way of living that I learned from mentors that came before me and that I respect. If I had their money, I'd burn mine and it worked for them. Of course I have stocks, mutual funds and alike and just dollar cost average for the tax benefits and the fun of it and have done so for many years. I feel that I am diversified and hold many different assets.

Some like the cars go down in value but I didn't buy them for that. I like to look at them in the garage and be able to relive 1976 & VROOM around when ever I want.:D\ I have the same car I drove in High School, only a Resto-mod with 600HP.:cool: and It makes me feel like a kid again, kinda like when I look at Baseball cards. The wife is pissed because she has to park her cars out front, but what are you gonna do. Biggest mistake I ever made was buying a house with a 2-car garage.

Baseball cards are supposed to be fun. The scammers that have ruined it for me including PSA who are going to get "McMillion$$ed" in due time. Then, it will be fun for me again. Good luck and good health to everyone.

[japhi]

I’m not surprised that the super high end cards that started auction 5-10 days ago are still doing well. The economic impact of this thing is just starting.

Lets see how auctions are doing when the country is is in quarantine, millions of people are laid off , and consumer spending grinds to a halt.

To give some perspective, Aramark has 180k employee’s. They manage food service at facilities. All of these facilities are closed. Thats one company that has no work for its people.

The airlines employee 600k people. Marriott has 130k employees. 15mm people work in restaurants in the US. All of these businesses will be running at 10 percent capacity. Even those of us that won’t face temp layoff and going to be dramatically impacted. It basically will take out everyone in corp americas ability to make their sales plan and bonuses.

Cards like everything else are going to get annihilated.

[MULLINS5]

This doesn't exactly look like a give away.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-Roberto-Clemente-ROOKIE-RC-164-PSA-8-NM-MT-PWCC/352990161555?hash=item522fda6a93:g:BIAAAOSwGg5eXaO d

This sale makes me sick because I remember when this card was just breaking a grand.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/114137086346?_trksid=p2471758.m4704

A BGS 9.5 Jordan brings 21k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-1987-Fleer-Michael-Jordan-57-Rookie-Card-BGS-9-5-GEM-MINT-Like-PSA-10/293421588375?epid=97258201&hash=item44514a1f97:g:UMgAAOSwKFNeG9oG

PSA 2 Mantle goes for over 20k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-Mickey-Mantle-311-PSA-2-GD-PWCC-A/143545997303?hash=item216c0217f7:g:~EMAAOSwz2VeXZu 1




Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

[Dpeck100]

What I do find fun about these discussions is there are a wide range of outcomes that can happen.

Just a few minutes ago you had a hedge fund manager on CNBC who has a personal net worth in excess of a billion dollars said he would go mortgage a house to buy stocks right now and thinks the market will come roaring back later this year. Another guest pushed back and disagrees and thinks the economic effects will longer and deeper.

Time will tell who is right but both are well educated men with lots of experience.

[Dpeck100]

Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

[Frank A]

Gold and silver have been thought to be a great investment for years. Gold and silver have not moved in price for many years. Up a few dollars, down a few dollars. Baseball cards however have continued to climb. I'll stay with cards. Frank

[MULLINS5]

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

My words may have been misconstrued, but I've never been a sky is falling kind of person (not that there's anything wrong with people like that). Not in hobbies or life in general. Trading cards for me is a hobby. I am a collector. Not an investor, meaning I don't go into a sale hoping the card goes up in value. Future prices have no impact in my buying.

Given all that's come out in the past couple years (been out there longer, but really coming to light thanks to BODA) regarding illegal shilling and fraudulent grading, why pay (fake) premiums for manufactured (low pop) rarity?

[Goudey77]

What data cannot be trusted? You mean the sale results?
Because I can confirm as the buyer that one of those sales is the real deal.

Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

[Dpeck100]

What data cannot be trusted? You mean the sale results?
Because I can confirm as the buyer that one of those sales is the real deal.


Exactly.

Patrick spouts off like he knows what he is talking about. He has been doing it for ten years online.

[Goudey77]

All the negative energy contributes very little to these forums. Please don't be a hobby justice warrior. This is not about taking a stance on either side. This is a hobby not politics. We are all adults and can make our own decisions. If you are a true collector you could understand that perspective.

My words may have been misconstrued, but I've never been a sky is falling kind of person (not that there's anything wrong with people like that). Not in hobbies or life in general. Trading cards for me is a hobby. I am a collector. Not an investor, meaning I don't go into a sale hoping the card goes up in value. Future prices have no impact in my buying.

Given all that's come out in the past couple years (been out there longer, but really coming to light thanks to BODA) regarding illegal shilling and fraudulent grading, why pay (fake) premiums for manufactured (low pop) rarity?

[japhi]

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

Well ya, an 11 year bull run fuelled by QE and debt has made most bulls look good. Let’s see how all assets perform when cash dries up and people start losing their jobs.

Fwiw I think the underlying fundamentals are decent. And that when demand comes back, the recovery will be dramatic. I am in buy mode myself ( not cards, equities). But this summer is going to be brutal and recession is a guaranty. Don’t underestimate how much of consumer spending is debt financed - HELOCS, credit cards. People are soon to find out they are not as rich as they thought.

[samosa4u]

I bid on seven items last night and lost all of them. People are still going nuts over cards. The only way they will stop is when this starts happening outside:

https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Ferikkain%2Ffiles%2F2018%2F06%2 Fzombies.jpg

[1880nonsports]

there are a number of you I would prefer stand many more than 6 feet away from me...……….

[Touch'EmAll]

Thank goodness I like nice vintage cards so much. If I didn't, I would have much more in the stock market. Whew!

[Dpeck100]

Well ya, an 11 year bull run fuelled by QE and debt has made most bulls look good. Let’s see how all assets perform when cash dries up and people start losing their jobs.

Fwiw I think the underlying fundamentals are decent. And that when demand comes back, the recovery will be dramatic. I am in buy mode myself ( not cards, equities). But this summer is going to be brutal and recession is a guaranty. Don’t underestimate how much of consumer spending is debt financed - HELOCS, credit cards. People are soon to find out they are not as rich as they thought.


My two major calls were that wrestling cards and specifically the Wrestling All Stars would explode and Mike Tyson cards would too. I bet significantly on this and in both cases good ole Patrick suggested I was crazy.

I agree that a long term run in markets has helped pump up lots of things but the move is far from over longer term in my view. There are loads of people like me in their 40's that will continue to want to own things they like and that remind them of their childhood.

It has been nice to see Gary V speaking so highly of the wrestling cards of late and they have taken another big leg up in many cases. There isn't enough supply in general and certainly not in high grades. I remain optimistic and my finances don't revolve around them at all so I am fine either way.

[gabrinus]

When the stock market hits zero I am buying everything...Jerry

[MULLINS5]

All the negative energy contributes very little to these forums. Please don't be a hobby justice warrior. This is not about taking a stance on either side. This is a hobby not politics. We are all adults and can make our own decisions. If you are a true collector you could understand that perspective.

Goudey77 -

No negative energy. Just facts.

Not being a "hobby justice warrior" lol.

Not taking a stance, on either side.

Nobody is bringing politics into this, smh.

Yes, all adults (I think). We make our own decisions.

I believe, totally just my opinion, "true collectors" are those who collect purely for the fun of the hobby and don't have a dime at stake.

[MULLINS5]

My two major calls were that wrestling cards and specifically the Wrestling All Stars would explode and Mike Tyson cards would too. I bet significantly on this and in both cases good ole Patrick suggested I was crazy.


I never bet against you on those cards.

You purchased nearly all of the supply of Wrestling All-Star cards (an obscure, unpopular set at the time) and then spammed the living hell out of them for years on the Collector's Universe forums - even when the majority begged you to stop (even though I defended you at the time). You even said that you intentionally bid on these cards to maintain their values and hype - but if you won the auction intended to pay so it wasn't shilling. It's also a set that was made, literally, in a guy's basement and I don't see how anybody can tell the difference between these and fakes (think Star Basketball). I held PSA at high esteem at the time and even had doubts then - given what's been uncovered lately I am of a string opinion they do not have the resources to accurately grade or authenticate these.

[earlywynnfan]

My comment wasn't about if we are overreacting or not, nobody really knows. I question your analogy because:

1) Comparing the beginning of this, or any, world issue to the final result of the worst era in human history is weak, and

2) Anybody who would say something like this:
"WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that."

is some kind of F'in' Idiot!!

YES OVER-reacting is an understatement. Saturday there were 58 dead, today 70.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

12 deaths in 2 days???? Please you get that on a normal day. This is a virus, yah a little stronger obviously, but it will come and go.

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Please read that article dated 2018 and explain to me how 80,000 died in 2018, in the US, and today Corona is at 70, and it's mass panic time, seems odd doesn't it?

Remember when the media had Hillary as a shoo in the White House. They can make you believe a lot, if they say it, it must be true right? I personally have no affiliation to either party so my speak isn't politically related like most are in the media. I can live with Trump or Biden. May the best man for the job win.

Viruses kill people each year.

70 dead since this broke in MID FEBRUARY.....and I think like 60% of these are from that one nursing home, who I'm sorry to say but once you are 80-90 there's a lot of stuff that can kill you.

PLAY BALL!!!!

[Shoeless Moe]

My comment wasn't about if we are overreacting or not, nobody really knows. I question your analogy because:

1) Comparing the beginning of this, or any, world issue to the final result of the worst era in human history is weak, and

2) Anybody who would say something like this:
"WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that."

is some kind of F'in' Idiot!!


I'll stand by it. Sorry if I'm not politically correct for you. I know if you say anything that isn't soft-served these past few years you get the stink eye. It was just a comparison to all these people crying the sky is falling, it isn't people.

The world has survived plagues, civil wars, WORLD WARS, terrorism, what have you. This will be in the rearview mirror before long. Don't get your panties in a bunch.

[Dpeck100]

I never bet against you on those cards.

You purchased nearly all of the supply of Wrestling All-Star cards (an obscure, unpopular set at the time) and then spammed the living hell out of them for years on the Collector's Universe forums - even when the majority begged you to stop (even though I defended you at the time). You even said that you intentionally bid on these cards to maintain their values and hype - but if you won the auction intended to pay so it wasn't shilling. It's also a set that was made, literally, in a guy's basement and I don't see how anybody can tell the difference between these and fakes (think Star Basketball). I held PSA at high esteem at the time and even had doubts then - given what's been uncovered lately I am of a string opinion they do not have the resources to accurately grade or authenticate these.


I will let you remember the events how you do and how I do.

The good news for me is it all worked out great.

[MULLINS5]

I will let you remember the events how you do and how I do.

The good news for me is it all worked out great.

They're preserved on Collector's Universe. I believe you said you bid up 80% of the most recent sale of the card, not necessarily to win. If you win, you pay, no foul. Something along those lines.

I don't have to worry about whether or not something holds value, and that is good news for me.

[Goudey77]

Patrick I admire that collectors mindset. It’s what fuels us all since we were kids.
We all have a unique approach and point of view to our collections.
Why the tit for tat to air out what’s been said...
Let’s get this thread back on track. :D

They're preserved on Collector's Universe. I believe you said you bid up 80% of the most recent sale of the card, not necessarily to win. If you win, you pay, no foul. Something along those lines.

I don't have to worry about whether or not something holds value, and that is good news for me.

[Dpeck100]

They're preserved on Collector's Universe. I believe you said you bid up 80% of the most recent sale of the card, not necessarily to win. If you win, you pay, no foul. Something along those lines.

I don't have to worry about whether or not something holds value, and that is good news for me.


Go read them and have fun. Every once in awhile I will read one and crack myself up.

Good for you. Enjoy your collecting and I will too. I love having cards that have gone up. Anyone who says they don't is just fooling themselves.

[Goudey77]

Go read them and have fun. Every once in awhile I will read one and crack myself up.

Good for you. Enjoy your collecting and I will too. I love having cards that have gone up. Anyone who says they don't is just fooling themselves.

David, world class wrestling collection. Always enjoyed your knowledge of the wrestling card world. The price increases are well deserved. The All Stars have finally staked their claim in the hobby!

[MULLINS5]

David, world class wrestling collection. The price increases are well deserved.

A lot of effort went into cooking those increases.

[Dpeck100]

David, world class wrestling collection. Always enjoyed your knowledge of the wrestling card world. The price increases are well deserved. The All Stars have finally staked their claim in the hobby!

Thank you.

There is no such definition as a true collector. I have never heard anyone with a bad ass collection say there is. It is always the person from afar.

Patrick was busting 89 Topps Hockey. Good for him. I would never question his motives or care and if he wanted to burn cash on the project so be it. It is his money.

Collect what you like. How you like. If one wants to speculate so be it. If one wants to hoard so be it.

It is baffling that people think they know what the definition of a true collector is and you only qualify if you don't care about value. Most of us in our 40's are a product of the 80's baseball card chase where the fresh Beckett with up arrows was like reading the Bible. It is why many are successful in life today.

[MULLINS5]

Thank you.

There is no such definition as a true collector. I have never heard anyone with a bad ass collection say there is. It is always the person from afar.

Patrick was busting 89 Topps Hockey. Good for him. I would never question his motives or care and if he wanted to burn cash on the project so be it. It is his money.

Collect what you like. How you like. If one wants to speculate so be it. If one wants to hoard so be it.

It is baffling that people think they know what the definition of a true collector is and you only qualify if you don't care about value. Most of us in our 40's are a product of the 80's baseball card chase where the fresh Beckett with up arrows was like reading the Bible. It is why many are successful in life today.

Goudey brought up "true collectors" so only then did I chime in on my opinion.

I was a fool for busting 89 Topps Hockey and then trusting PSA to grade it. They're a scam company, IMO.

Sure, we all care about value to some extent - it's always nice to get what we pay for something.

[Dpeck100]

Goudey brought up "true collectors" so only then did I chime in on my opinion.

I was a fool for busting 89 Topps Hockey and then trusting PSA to grade it. They're a scam company, IMO.

Sure, we all care about value to some extent - it's always nice to get what we pay for something.



I believe, totally just my opinion, "true collectors" are those who collect purely for the fun of the hobby and don't have a dime at stake.


This is why you are impossible to comment back and for with.

In 1990 when Frank Thomas got hot I wanted his cards but I also wanted to find them cheaper than they were being listed in the Beckett. It is just human nature and the thrill of the chase to try and win financially.

I got some grades back from PSA today. Many lower than what I wanted. It happens but when it costs $10 a card you better believe I care what they grade.

[Dpeck100]

While we are going back and forth I see this Flair PSA 9 went for $1,100.

This seller has the magic touch. He sold a PSA 9 OC Hogan a few days ago for $2,100.

Now you see why I am not bearish.


https://www.ebay.com/itm/1982-Wrestling-All-Stars-27-Ric-Flair-psa-9-RC-Rookie-Card-highest-on-EBAY/274283963600?hash=item3fdc9924d0:g:nZAAAOSw9sheUm-O

[japhi]

Great, wrestling cards, 0.0016% of the hobby are going up. Mantle RC’s are selling well.

Neither of these are a good proxy for the overall hobby. Well maybe the mantle, but wrestling card collectors probably number in the hundreds so with all due respect who cares what an OC hogan sells for.

If you believe the PWCC index, the majority of cards have been relatively flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - free money and full employment . No way we go into recession, millions lose their jobs, and the mid market/ overall card market holds up.

Guys like Gary V are catalysts in good times, but when you lose your job, or your 401k takes a 120k hit, you put a hold on your 56th Acuna or Soto PSA 10 “investment”. And that appears to be happening, guys on BO are reporting that some of these flagship cards are down 30-40%. Returns are increasing.

Personally I couldn’t care less what happens to my collection price wise. But I suspect to your point Dpeck, that most do, and I am predicting some panic selling. I mean look at PM’s- they are down when traditionally they provide a hedge against equities. The general consensus is that they are being used to cover calls, generate cash. We as a society are awash in debt, I would love to know the number of collectors that have built their collection with debt. Speculators are about to get wiped out.

[JeremyW]

Great, wrestling cards, 0.0016% of the hobby are going up. Mantle RC’s are selling well.

Neither of these are a good proxy for the overall hobby. Well maybe the mantle, but wrestling card collectors probably number in the hundreds so with all due respect who cares what an OC hogan sells for.

If you believe the PWCC index, the majority of cards have been relatively flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - free money and full employment . No way we go into recession, millions lose their jobs, and the mid market/ overall card market holds up.

Guys like Gary V are catalysts in good times, but when you lose your job, or your 401k takes a 120k hit, you put a hold on your 56th Acuna or Soto PSA 10 “investment”. And that appears to be happening, guys on BO are reporting that some of these flagship cards are down 30-40%. Returns are increasing.

Personally I couldn’t care less what happens to my collection price wise. But I suspect to your point Dpeck, that most do, and I am predicting some panic selling. I mean look at PM’s- they are down when traditionally they provide a hedge against equities. The general consensus is that they are being used to cover calls, generate cash. We as a society are awash in debt, I would love to know the number of collectors that have built their collection with debt. Speculators are about to get wiped out.

I always wondered how dealers could win auctions & pay as much as collectors on the BST & still be in business.

[Nippy7]

I like your optimism Goudey77. Also, a great move for us card dudes and baseball in general: Ken Burns just made his 9-part documentary "Baseball" available for free viewing on PBS. Usually those are only available for purchase. That's a great move after the Astro's scandal and now the cancellation/postponement of MLB.

[Dpeck100]

Great, wrestling cards, 0.0016% of the hobby are going up. Mantle RC’s are selling well.

Neither of these are a good proxy for the overall hobby. Well maybe the mantle, but wrestling card collectors probably number in the hundreds so with all due respect who cares what an OC hogan sells for.

If you believe the PWCC index, the majority of cards have been relatively flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - free money and full employment . No way we go into recession, millions lose their jobs, and the mid market/ overall card market holds up.

Guys like Gary V are catalysts in good times, but when you lose your job, or your 401k takes a 120k hit, you put a hold on your 56th Acuna or Soto PSA 10 “investment”. And that appears to be happening, guys on BO are reporting that some of these flagship cards are down 30-40%. Returns are increasing.

Personally I couldn’t care less what happens to my collection price wise. But I suspect to your point Dpeck, that most do, and I am predicting some panic selling. I mean look at PM’s- they are down when traditionally they provide a hedge against equities. The general consensus is that they are being used to cover calls, generate cash. We as a society are awash in debt, I would love to know the number of collectors that have built their collection with debt. Speculators are about to get wiped out.



Obviously wrestling cards mean nothing in the aggregate but it shows that the card market has broadened significantly. Pokemon and Magic The Gathering have been the best performing segment over the past five years and just about every post I have ever read on online sports card message boards made fun of them and the people who collect them. Yet they saw unprecedented price performance. The card market is global so Asia saw a slow down and there is evidence they are coming out of it and cards like this and basketball are heavily collected there and you might have some person who is a software tycoon who wants all of these cards and drives them to the moon. I have no clue how they have fared the past few months but clearly The Black Lotus is a monster card and will be forever.

I use the 1986 Fleer Jordan and the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. as the two proxy cards for the hobby. If they are going up than many other cards are too. Kind of like FANG with the stock market.

There are a few cards I regret not buying but I have always funded my collection through cash flow and there have been certain times where I just had to say no. This may not be the case for others and I think it is fair to say in certain segments you could see what you would consider forced selling. That said there are some very deep pocketed collectors out there and so they will sop up the supply and the market will move forward.

The PWCC index I argued was a poor representation for the hobby because of the weighting structure and the amount of those cards that turn over. If you take the 52 Topps Mantle in a PSA 8 it has clearly pulled back in public auction over the past few years. Those that are interested in its prices going up argued that they were poor centered copies and that the prices weren't indicative of better centered copies. They might be right. They might be wrong but the index doesn't take into consideration eye appeal and so it artificially inflates on the way up and artificially deflates on the way down. Because the weighting structure is so high it helped drive the index up significantly as the card ran from $78,000 to over $525,000. You also saw the 55 Clemente and the 63 Rose see insane increase during the "buyers group bubble" and as they came back down to planet earth so did the index.

The debt situation in this country is so much different than when we were in 2008 and into 09. People can actually refinance debt. I bought my condo in 2005 and did the typical pull out equity to remodel and then did some real stupid sh++ and lost it in the market trading options. I said enough is enough and went to a fixed rate mortgage in 2006 and then when the bottom fell out I was stuck in a high interest (6.25%) mortgage and had I stuck with the risky arm I would have been dramatically better off. It took me a few years of aggressively paying it down to be able to refinance and I did and was able to lower the rate significantly. Unlike most in finance I had no desire to create arbitrage and worked my ass off to pay it off even though the rate was only 3.50%. Today people have been given a gift with the ten year under 1% and so refinance applications have exploded. This coupled with the gas prices will be great stimulus eventually for the economy.

I think everyone is just freaked out right now. All of us will probably end up spending more time at home not by choice and so you will see some supply show up as people have time to list cards but you will also see lots of people bored and so buying something will give them pleasure.

In time this will pass and the sports fans will be sports fans and the people collecting cards will still be collecting. I can't stress enough how much of an impact watching money evaporate trading options had on my card purchases. Stock market declines in many cases lead to more people being interested in tangible assets because watching numbers vanish on a computer screen is no fun and it is much more fun to lose if that is the outcome and still have the same item you bought.

[seanofjapan]

This does kind of feel like a debate about where the deck chairs should be placed on the Titanic.

A few auction results that happened this week are pretty irrelevant. There is a massive sword hanging over the head of the world economy right now and that is what is going to determine card values are by the end of this year.

The problem is that we don't know how long the economically disruptive countermeasures to control the Coronavirus are going to be necessary.

Most major companies can withstand a shutdown of a few weeks at most. So if this thing improves significantly by next month we might get out of this OK and your cards might not take much of a hit. But if it drags on into the summer like some are now suggesting it will, most businesses can't survive that long and bankruptcies will explode, making the economic chaos we are witnessing now seem relatively mild.

The entire airline industry is already teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and will probably be wiped out completely in a few weeks if governments worldwide don't bail them out. There are a lot of other sectors out there similarily vulnerable lined up to follow, way too many for governments to be able to keep them all afloat with bailouts.

If that happens card values are going to be destroyed just like the value of every other kind of investment.

So lets hope it doesn't come to that.

[cardsagain74]

Most of us in our 40's are a product of the 80's baseball card chase where the fresh Beckett with up arrows was like reading the Bible. It is why many are successful in life today.

Preach. When I was a dealer at shows during high school ('89 to '92) during the boom, opening that Beckett each time as a teen was like getting to check your growth stocks for the first time in a month.

Those years taught me so much and got me well ahead of the curve when it came to learning about adult finance, people, success, and failure

[Mark17]

I'll stand by it. Sorry if I'm not politically correct for you. I know if you say anything that isn't soft-served these past few years you get the stink eye. It was just a comparison to all these people crying the sky is falling, it isn't people.

The world has survived plagues, civil wars, WORLD WARS, terrorism, what have you. This will be in the rearview mirror before long. Don't get your panties in a bunch.

I agree. China was ground zero and according to the CDC, their death toll as of Monday morning was 3,218. Cases there are slowing so it appears they are beginning to recover. Not saying I know for certain, but I think the death toll in the USA will be less than that, and this thing should be about over by the middle of June. That will stress the stock market, with lower earnings and companies struggling for cash, but if you hang onto your cards, I'm thinking by Christmas or earlier their value will be intact. For the quality vintage stuff anyway.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

[drcy]

Recent reports say that UK health officials fear that possibly up to 80% or Britains will get it over the upcoming year. With a 1% death rate, that would mean approx. 500,000 British would die.

Just something I read. Don't pretend to be an expert.

[Shoeless Moe]

Recent reports say that UK health officials fear that possibly up to 80% or Britains will get it over the upcoming year. With a 1% death rate, that would mean approx. 500,000 British would die.

Just something I read. Don't pretend to be an expert.

Who cares? We need to stop being afraid of what "could" happen? No one will say it, but I will. It's cold, but at some point, we have to not live in fear. And that's what is ruling right now and being stoked by the news media. Does anyone realize this broke in December and the US deaths to date due to this is a whopping 93???????

Gov Cuomo said we are at war. War with the virus, so he too Mr Early Wynn fan compared it to war. And in War you lose lives.

And all this over 93 deaths (75 million in WWII), and again most are very old people, sorry older people but if you are 80 or 90 your playing in overtime as it is. Ok relax I do get the we need to stop this, not saying that, but shut everything down for a week or two and that's it. Talk of any more is assinine.

Approximately 7,452 die every day in the United States due to natural deaths, multiple diseases, accidents, murders, viruses, etc...….and we are going to let the Economy tank, retirement funds disappear, money for kids colleges gone, mass amounts of people potentially jobless, no paychecks, no income for some. You also run the risk of suicides, riots, looting (anybody remember the LA Riots, don't think that can't happen again) if this goes too long.

We are going to risk all this for 93 deaths since December, and yes I know its going to go up, to what 200, 500, 1000, who cares. Sad but True at some point we all need to roll the dice and resume normalcy.

We can't save everyone people. Sorry.

[Republicaninmass]

Life expectancy is US is a hair over 78 years old. Congrats those those long livers!

[Rickyy]

for me...my purchases have always been modest (up to low or mid 4 figures) and always from my non essential discretionary funds. Having said that as the market tanks and eats into my retirement funds a bit..its natural to conserve and scale back on spending on "fun" things...esp as you near retirement age.

Ricky Y

[conor912]

Who cares? No one will say it, but I will. Does anyone realize this broke in December and the US deaths to date due to this is a whopping 93???????

All this over 93 deaths, and again most are very old people, sorry older people but if you are 80 or 90 your playing in overtime as it is. Ok relax I do get the we need to stop this, not saying that, but shut everything down for a week or two and that's it. Talk of any more is assinine.

Approximately 7,452 die every day in the United States due to natural deaths, multiple diseases, accidents, murders, viruses, etc...….and we are going to let the Economy tank, retirement funds disappear, money for kids colleges gone, mass amounts of people potentially jobless, no paychecks, income for some. You also run the risk of suicides, riots, looting, if this goes too long.

We are going to risk all this for 93 deaths since December, and yes I know its going to go up, to what 200, 500, 1000, who cares. Sad but True at some point we all need to roll the dice and resume normalcy.

We can't save everyone people. Sorry.

It feels crappy to measure human life in these terms, but my wife and I were talking about this last night. For every life lost, how many thousands of lives will possibly be financially ruined forever? The only way to answer that is to know the timeline, which no one knows. There are a lot of people who will have a hard time bouncing back from a few weeks, let alone a few months. That said, all of this is an effort to not overwhelm the healthcare system.....because if that goes, the panic we're seeing now is going to seem like a tickle party by comparison.

[samosa4u]

I never bet against you on those cards.

You purchased nearly all of the supply of Wrestling All-Star cards (an obscure, unpopular set at the time) and then spammed the living hell out of them for years on the Collector's Universe forums - even when the majority begged you to stop (even though I defended you at the time). You even said that you intentionally bid on these cards to maintain their values and hype - but if you won the auction intended to pay so it wasn't shilling. It's also a set that was made, literally, in a guy's basement and I don't see how anybody can tell the difference between these and fakes (think Star Basketball). I held PSA at high esteem at the time and even had doubts then - given what's been uncovered lately I am of a string opinion they do not have the resources to accurately grade or authenticate these.

Whatever he did, he turned a piece of turd into a piece of gold, and that's brilliant IMO. Good job, Peck.

[MULLINS5]

Whatever he did, he turned a piece of turd into a piece of gold, and that's brilliant IMO. Good job, Peck.

It's actually pretty easy to do. I've seen it happen quite a bit in the antiquarian book world.

[drcy]

A key reason they are doing the steps they are doing is not because it's the black plague. They are doing it to lower and lengthen the curve. If there is a large peak, it would swamp the healthcare system, hospitals and hospital resources.

https://cdn.slidemodel.com/wp-content/uploads/20445-01-coronavirus-flattening-the-curve-powerpoint-template-1.jpg

[Rich Klein]

"Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN."

Skipping politics aside, if we get close to 20 percent unemployment the card market will suffer as many people will have to sell at reduced prices to put food on the table, pay rent, etc.

The 2008 recession led to 10 percent unemployment by October, 2009. This would be double that figure. If you remember how 2007-10 was, then you have an idea what 2020-22 would be and then some.

Rich

[Johnny630]

"Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN."

Skipping politics aside, if we get close to 20 percent unemployment the card market will suffer as many people will have to sell at reduced prices to put food on the table, pay rent, etc.

The 2008 recession led to 10 percent unemployment by October, 2009. This would be double that figure. If you remember how 2007-10 was, then you have an idea what 2020-22 would be and then some.

Rich

I see ZERO CHANCE of US Unemployed going to %20 Won’t Happen......thankfully it won’t even get close :-)

[Rich Klein]

I see ZERO CHANCE of US Unemployed going to %20 Won’t Happen......thankfully it won’t even get close :-)

For ALL of us Johnny, I hope and pray you are correct.

Rich

[sbfinley]

I see ZERO CHANCE of US Unemployed going to %20 Won’t Happen......thankfully it won’t even get close :-)

I also hope you are correct, but the service and retail sector is going to hit hard the longer this pandemic drags out. As someone in service sector operations I know the conference call I took yesterday was very bleak and I'm sure I wasn't the only one on a like that call recently. Do I believe "true" unemployment can reach 20% soon? Probably not. But I can absolutely see temporary layoffs and closures pushing the percentage of the workforce going a period of time without a full paycheck or without one completely well past 20%.

[Johnny630]

For ALL of us Johnny, I hope and pray you are correct.

Rich

Rich,

I hope and pray too :-) we all have to stick together and Keep America Strong

[Exhibitman]

No one is going to go bankrupt...the courts are closed.

Look on the bright side:

--Lots of old people won't have to worry about outliving their retirement savings.

--Full employment in the health care sector is guaranteed.

--Spirit Air might go out of business.

--Might kill a Kardashian or two.

--No jackasses pestering me to buy March Madness squares.

--More people are washing their hands after they pee...or finish other things.

--We won't have to go to Atlantic City.

Thanks, you've been a great audience. Enjoy REO Speedwagon.

[packs]

This crash is only damning for a small percentage of people: people who were looking to cash out their 401K's or other retirement accounts this year or the next. I have almost 30 more years to go before I'm retiring.

The crash won't affect my purchasing power. Everyone is always very sunny when it comes to discussing the future of the hobby. Only those nearing the end of their financial planning are really doomed. Let's see what happens.

[Rich Klein]

This crash is only damning for a small percentage of people: people who were looking to cash out their 401K's or other retirement accounts this year or the next. I have almost 30 more years to go before I'm retiring.

The crash won't affect my purchasing power. Everyone is always very sunny when it comes to discussing the future of the hobby. Only those nearing the end of their financial planning are really doomed. Let's see what happens.

If you had a significant amount on money in the 401K and nearing retirement you should not have been in an aggressive mode. Now those with 30 or so years to go should be fine.

[packs]

If you had a significant amount on money in the 401K and nearing retirement you should not have been in an aggressive mode. Now those with 30 or so years to go should be fine.

I don't know what an aggressive 401K looks like. If you owned anything you took a huge hit. But it only matters if you don't have time to recover. Anyone looking to retire this year is probably rethinking that. Anyone who planned to cash out their accounts won't have enough time to recover before they need the money.

[packs]

By the way, since it's always advised that you look on the bright side of things, a crash like this could be good for people my age. It may be an opportunity to build future wealth.

[japhi]

By the way, since it's always advised that you look on the bright side of things, a crash like this could be good for people my age. It may be an opportunity to build future wealth.

It will be for sure, as long as you can keep your job. Travel and Entertainment is getting wiped out, that is 20mm workers plus all of the ancillary businesses that support them.

RE is going to get smoked as well.

Basically the economy is about to go dark for 30-60 days. I think people will understand how deep this is over the next few days when millions of people get layed off. The bankruptcy filings are going to be epic. Hilton was down 20 points today and is headed to zero Delta down 25% in one day....60% of 52 week high.

This is unprecedented. Card prices will be the least of anyones worries.

[Republicaninmass]

Dean's might lower his prices

[90feetaway]

eBay must not be feeling the effects yet. Haven't gotten any bucks or selling promotions this week.

[Billy5858]

Dean's might lower his prices

LoL 😂

[Rich Klein]

I don't know what an aggressive 401K looks like. If you owned anything you took a huge hit. But it only matters if you don't have time to recover. Anyone looking to retire this year is probably rethinking that. Anyone who planned to cash out their accounts won't have enough time to recover before they need the money.

In many 401K's you have the option of how you want to put your money. Back in the day at Beckett we had something like 10 options from something akin to low risk/low reward investments to ultra aggressive investments. And many options in between. You had the choice of where to put your money in terms of percent. I will still say, if you are approaching retirement age and have a large sum in the 401K to pull back from being aggressive and go to basically stable places to put your money. if you went conservative and are in your early 60's you still have last money this month but not nearly as much as being uber aggressive.

Rich

[painthistorian]

We should stop dealing with China as they are a threat to our security unless they change how they are to us and the world, we don't need them if we make crap here or in a friendly country......we should respect one another and maybe this was a true wake up call that will make all people appreciate how lucky we are....We need a strong America and a Compassionate America but not a stupid America...we need to build products, build infrastructure, we need everyone to buy baseball cards, a game WE INVENTED!

and most of all, we need gratitude & faith.

[Bobbycee]

Dean's might lower his prices

Thanks for the hearty laugh! Glad I wasn't drinking when I read this. Runner up: JLS Cards out of Alaska

[conor912]

We should stop dealing with China as they are a threat to our security unless they change how they are to us and the world, we don't need them if we make crap here or in a friendly country......we should respect one another and maybe this was a true wake up call that will make all people appreciate how lucky we are....We need a strong America and a Compassionate America but not a stupid America...we need to build products, build infrastructure, we need everyone to buy baseball cards, a game WE INVENTED!

and most of all, we need gratitude & faith.

Good luck convincing Americans to pay $4k for an iPhone because it’s “made in the USA”.

[Dpeck100]

This is the most important card in the market.


https://www.ebay.com/itm/402157215266?_trksid=p2471758.m4704


Cruising to new highs with time to go.


I will openly admit the stock and bond route has gone much deeper than I could have imagined but some how I continue to see very strong card prices.

As tough as it might seem to stay bullish I am reminded daily that there is tremendous demand for trading cards.

[ullmandds]

Sorry not sure if I’m believing that that price will result in a real sale?

[Dpeck100]

Sorry not sure if I’m believing that that price will result in a real sale?

The card is selling strong in all grades.

eBay competed auctions are remaining very strong across all genres.

I get it everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop but so far after a historic route in stock and bond prices it hasn’t happened.

[Shoeless Moe]

but if this decline continues.......get it on ice

[Republicaninmass]

People still watching PWCC auctions? What a freaking farce, from day 1 until today.

[Exhibitman]

People still watching PWCC auctions? What a freaking farce, from day 1 until today.

well at least with PSA shut down they won't have a stream of altered, er, conserved, cards to sell.

[Republicaninmass]

well at least with PSA shut down they won't have a stream of altered, er, conserved, cards to sell.What's a trimmer to do? Just use sgc and "only" realize a smaller profit

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Fuddjcal]

:DDean's might lower his prices

Now that's funny...

[Tyruscobb]

The card is selling strong in all grades.

eBay competed auctions are remaining very strong across all genres.

I get it everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop but so far after a historic route in stock and bond prices it hasn’t happened.

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

[ullmandds]

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

I totally agree with this sentiment and this is not even taking into account the likelihood that this card has been altered!!!
Seems like it’s already a non-issue?

[japhi]

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

Exactly, this thing is only getting started.

I don’t think people fully realize how integrated commerce is. We are going to hit depression era employment levels. GDP levels we haven’t seen in 20 years. RE market is going to get crushed and I bet a significant portion of the hobby is debt financed.

The best and most desirable cards will be fine but they represent a very small portion of the overall hobby. My guess is overall transaction volume has dropped substantially and will continue to drop. April is when millions of Americans won’t be receiving any income, for now most folks layed off are getting their two weeks.

[Johnny630]

Exactly, this thing is only getting started.

I don’t think people fully realize how integrated commerce is. We are going to hit depression era employment levels. GDP levels we haven’t seen in 20 years. RE market is going to get crushed and I bet a significant portion of the hobby is debt financed.

The best and most desirable cards will be fine but they represent a very small portion of the overall hobby. My guess is overall transaction volume has dropped substantially and will continue to drop. April is when millions of Americans won’t be receiving any income, for now most folks layed off are getting their two weeks.

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

[japhi]

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

I sure hope you are right but 2mm people will make UI claims this week. Last week in Canada we had 500k claims - 20x increase yoy. And most employers have ‘t even made a move yet. Early April is going to be ugly.

[Exhibitman]

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/dropins/websize/Lumbergh%20yeah%202.png

Unfortunately, the Secretary of the Treasury told the Senate that is exactly what to expect, they are just trying to hide this info (too).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/mnuchin-warns-senators-of-20percent-us-unemployment-without-coronavirus-rescue-source-says.html

After the information leaked, the Treasury later walked it back to "not a projection" status.

Meanwhile, on Main Street, several of my clients contacted me last week with questions about how to lay off their entire staffs.

[Dpeck100]

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.


As fast and viscous as the move lower in stock and bond prices have been I would imagine most that expect a significant correction in card prices would think that is what we would be seeing right now.

PWCC has 8,795 active listings and there is still a ton of money being spent on cards.

I get it most on here despise them but in order to see what is actually taking place with cards you have no choice but to watch their auctions. Whether anyone likes it or not they are still getting the lion share of the best cards on EBAY and I maintain the opinion they are more like a stock exchange than a dealer and I like to follow prices.

There is a wide range of outcomes that can come from this disaster. Business in this country can't stay closed for long as some are estimating without destroying the economy and I believe this will force us to get back to work faster. So far while this has hit all 50 states it is clearly a bigger issue in just a few and so hopefully regionally we see a faster acceleration of normalcy.

Time will tell how this plays out.

In terms of your last comment. Part of the story is fake news. The woman from GA is innocent and just as I proved on this board Joe Orlando was with his stock option exercise program some will believe it regardless because they simply want too.

[todeen]

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......Social distancing was already employed at grocery stores and McDonald's with those self check out machines. My wife and I bet that more stores will begin to employ them as we move into the future.

Read an article from MIT, it said the hardest hit population from this newest recession will be the low end wage worker that can easily be replaced. It wondered aloud about how universal incomes are laughed at now, but might become a more serious debate going forward.

While I too doubt a great depression era unemployment percentage, if the USA really wanted a stimulus package, it would invest 3 trillion into highways, bridges, and modernizing dams. Lots of bodies with shovels, cdl, and biceps needed. College degree not required.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Exhibitman]

This just reported:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.

[perezfan]

What's a trimmer to do? Just use sgc and "only" realize a smaller profit

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Maybe the card trimmers will now file for unemployment. With their partner in crime (PSA) now closed, their ability to earn an income is adversely impacted.

Moser, Mathis, Thorn, Adams, Block, Tuttle, Pevarnick and the rest should at least try to file for Unemployment, and see what happens. Without PSA, they are basically in the same boat as the rest of us! :(

[GaryPassamonte]

there are a number of you I would prefer stand many more than 6 feet away from me...……….


Henry- I couldn't agree more.

[japhi]

As fast and viscous as the move lower in stock and bond prices have been I would imagine most that expect a significant correction in card prices would think that is what we would be seeing right now.

PWCC has 8,795 active listings and there is still a ton of money being spent on cards.

I get it most on here despise them but in order to see what is actually taking place with cards you have no choice but to watch their auctions. Whether anyone likes it or not they are still getting the lion share of the best cards on EBAY and I maintain the opinion they are more like a stock exchange than a dealer and I like to follow prices.

There is a wide range of outcomes that can come from this disaster. Business in this country can't stay closed for long as some are estimating without destroying the economy and I believe this will force us to get back to work faster. So far while this has hit all 50 states it is clearly a bigger issue in just a few and so hopefully regionally we see a faster acceleration of normalcy.

Time will tell how this plays out.

In terms of your last comment. Part of the story is fake news. The woman from GA is innocent and just as I proved on this board Joe Orlando was with his stock option exercise program some will believe it regardless because they simply want too.

Regarding PWCC sales, the proper way to track market direction is not number if items, or high profile item sale price. The way to see where we are headed would be YOY volume by auction. So what is total transaction volume March 2019 vs 2020. And considering we are really only two weeks into this, and the auction that just closed was 90 days in the works, I don’t think it is a good data point, or any data point since we don’t know YOY. In fact, as this thing expands I expect PWCC listings to increase as supply outstrips demand.

I am going to assume that cards will trend in the same direction all consumer spending is trending...way the fook down. I have a very hard time believing that equities, PM’s, discretionary purchases like cars and RV’s, soon RE , will all trend down, significantly, and card prices will hold. It would defy logic for that to happen.

I do expect shilling and all the shenanigans we are used to, to increase as the pinheads in the hobby try and keep the illusion of strong prices alive. But there is no way trillions evaporates from GDP and a fringe investment like sportscards doesn’t take a beating. First week in April is when SHTF and ten million people hit EI.

Again, hope I am wrong, my family is heavily impacted ( but fortunately work for a great company and will be ok).

[Johnny630]

I’m worried about the people who will panic cut or run when they open their 401k/IRA retirement statements.

Redemption calls.

[Golfcollector]

Dow Futures Sunday night, hit the circuit breaker about 5 minutes into the open at 6 PM EST. Down 984 I believe, so we are just above 18K now for the Dow Jones.

[sreader3]

All of the threads over the years saying that stocks are an investment and cards are a hobby seem pretty questionable. Right now, I wish I had 50% of my net worth in cards and 3% in stocks, instead of the other way around.

[Dpeck100]

Regarding PWCC sales, the proper way to track market direction is not number if items, or high profile item sale price. The way to see where we are headed would be YOY volume by auction. So what is total transaction volume March 2019 vs 2020. And considering we are really only two weeks into this, and the auction that just closed was 90 days in the works, I don’t think it is a good data point, or any data point since we don’t know YOY. In fact, as this thing expands I expect PWCC listings to increase as supply outstrips demand.

I am going to assume that cards will trend in the same direction all consumer spending is trending...way the fook down. I have a very hard time believing that equities, PM’s, discretionary purchases like cars and RV’s, soon RE , will all trend down, significantly, and card prices will hold. It would defy logic for that to happen.

I do expect shilling and all the shenanigans we are used to, to increase as the pinheads in the hobby try and keep the illusion of strong prices alive. But there is no way trillions evaporates from GDP and a fringe investment like sportscards doesn’t take a beating. First week in April is when SHTF and ten million people hit EI.

Again, hope I am wrong, my family is heavily impacted ( but fortunately work for a great company and will be ok).


The point was simply if a seller who has over 8,000 active listings is to be avoided from watching you are missing the market. They get the best cards. The best cards drive the market.

I like to follow trading card auctions to see what is taking place in the hobby. There is no better seller to follow than PWCC to get a broad range of cards.

I went through my purchases today on EBAY and I have won seven cards from their auctions since January of 2018. I am very pleased with the buys and if someone wants to buy cards they simply can't just exclude them if they want to advance their collection.

There are a multitude of cards getting action right now and maybe these buyers haven't gotten the word that the market has collapsed or unemployment is set to explode. Maybe they don't care. I don't know the answer but you don't see a drought yet in cards.

[todeen]

All of the threads over the years saying that stocks are an investment and cards are a hobby seem pretty questionable. Right now, I wish I had 50% of my net worth in cards and 3% in stocks, instead of the other way around.If the richest 1% are heavily invested it's good for you too. But they are also diversified in art, automobiles, cards, coins, jewelry, land/rental property, etc. Its good to have a balanced portfolio.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[sreader3]

It's good to have a balanced portfolio.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Could not agree more.

[japhi]

The point was simply if a seller who has over 8,000 active listings is to be avoided from watching you are missing the market. They get the best cards. The best cards drive the market.

I like to follow trading card auctions to see what is taking place in the hobby. There is no better seller to follow than PWCC to get a broad range of cards.

I went through my purchases today on EBAY and I have won seven cards from their auctions since January of 2018. I am very pleased with the buys and if someone wants to buy cards they simply can't just exclude them if they want to advance their collection.

There are a multitude of cards getting action right now and maybe these buyers haven't gotten the word that the market has collapsed or unemployment is set to explode. Maybe they don't care. I don't know the answer but you don't see a drought yet in cards.

Well this thread is about the overall card market and price predictions, not PWCC. PWCC having lots of listings is not a data point. I would expect their listing to go UP in times like this. Similar to RE, lot of listings represents a buyers market.

And who cares if there is lots of action. There is lots of action in equity markets right now, volumes are historic. Would you agree then that equity markets are doing well?

I enjoy you as a poster here and on CU - optimism and supporting the hobby is a good thing. But we are going through a once in a lifetime event. PWCC’s own index ffs shows that broadly cards have been flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - 4 percent UE, RE markets exploding and free money.

As a fellow guy in finance, what is your outlook for the economy and how does that dovetail with your outlook on cards? Who cares about PWCC, how do you feel cards will perform in 12-18% UE and negative 20% GDP? You can’t be one of the “this will pass soon” guys?

[Dpeck100]

Well this thread is about the overall card market and price predictions, not PWCC. PWCC having lots of listings is not a data point. I would expect their listing to go UP in times like this. Similar to RE, lot of listings represents a buyers market.

And who cares if there is lots of action. There is lots of action in equity markets right now, volumes are historic. Would you agree then that equity markets are doing well?

I enjoy you as a poster here and on CU - optimism and supporting the hobby is a good thing. But we are going through a once in a lifetime event. PWCC’s own index ffs shows that broadly cards have been flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - 4 percent UE, RE markets exploding and free money.

As a fellow guy in finance, what is your outlook for the economy and how does that dovetail with your outlook on cards? Who cares about PWCC, how do you feel cards will perform in 12-18% UE and negative 20% GDP? You can’t be one of the “this will pass soon” guys?


There was a comment earlier about people still watching PWCC listings. The answer is yes I still do. I don't see how someone can't.

EBAY is a real time market place. The same data that is available to stock market participants is available to those buying cards. These same people can turn on the news and see the horror show. Why are they still bidding on cards? I don't know. I know I have been trolling EBAY looking for stuff to buy at the same pace during this entire market meltdown. If something I want shows up I am buying it. 100% of my card buys have come from monthly cash flow and I assume there are plenty of others who have a similar situation.

I put more money into cards in 2010 then any other year and that was a horrible time for the economy and highly uncertain for me in finance. In my view cash flow is king and so there is no doubt that there will be some cash flow impact in the coming months for loads of people. That said my cash flow can decline and I can still afford to buy cards. Some won't be able to. How much they matter to the card prices is debatable. I don't know the answer.

The economy was in great shape heading into this. I think it all comes down to how long it is halted. If it is two months for most of it the stimulus package and debt extension efforts will help. If it is four months or more we will be in trouble for a while. The decline in interest rates and energy is huge stimulus and obviously the lack of work is not.

There was a hedge fund manager that was on CNBC this week twice who is a billionaire and in his late 40's and started at 25. He thinks the market hits new highs by the end of the year. Is it probable? No. Is it possible? Yes. He is looking at the same situation we are.

I personally think this is a very hard one to predict because under no circumstances did I think in 2009 it would be a v shaped recovery. I remember arguing with an old timer in the office who was a portfolio manager and was insistent we were in trouble for a long time. I couldn't have been more wrong as the market came screaming back and while I had been very bearish on the way down I didn't get it right on the way back up. With a massive amount of fiscal stimulus it is very possible that this will assist in keeping us from going as deep as one might think and certainly could assist in us coming back from this.

My situation is different than most because I own such a large concentration of the same cards and a large percentage of the population totals. A few weeks ago an Andre The Giant 1982 PSA 8 sold for $1,358. There are 18 in the pop report and I have 6 of them. I know I could never sell them all at the same time and not impact prices. A PSA 7 sold for $620. I have 7 of those. The same holds true there. That said the totals of these cards are low enough where they don't come for sale frequently and so if someone wants one they have to go after it. Do some of the market participants get knocked out of the market for this card? Possibly but it is not 100%.

I truly believe that a ton of money has flowed into cards because they are a hard asset. You still own it regardless of the value. Someone who bought Enron watched their piece of paper go to zero. An Andre will always be worth something. Perhaps more. Perhaps less but never zero.

There is a trimmed raw Kobe Bryant card with a current bid of $145,600 right now on Ebay. Why? Because there are people out there that want this stuff and that isn't going to change. The buying power might change and that is the the question we can't answer. If it lasts a few months it is a non event. If it lasts years than yes the economy will catch up to cards.

It remains to be seen how this plays out and I remain optimistic we will get through this. I hope I am right. It has never paid to bet against the American economy for long.

[MULLINS5]

Another bad example - there are so few of the Kobe Green Metal cards. Those cards are extremely condition sensitive and could actually benefit a little trim around the edges without negatively impacting value.

[Dpeck100]

Another bad example - there are so few of the Kobe Green Metal cards. Those cards are extremely condition sensitive and could actually benefit a little trim around the edges without negatively impacting value.

The point is there is still money out there that can support a card selling for nearly 150k from 1997. Most will pay more for a slabbed card and so the fact that it is raw doesn't help its cause. Yes there are 10 so you take what you can get but that doesn't mean those searching wouldn't pay more for a higher numerical grade.

Not everyone is going to be in dire straits. If you are a waiter perhaps but they don't drive the card market.

Here we have a Johnson/Bird rookie.

Sold for $5,822 in January

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1980-Topps-Basketball-Larry-Bird-Magic-Johnson-ROOKIE-RC-PSA-9-MINT-PWCC/143498933515?hash=item216933f50b:g:sO8AAOSwyMVeGiR K

A PWCC copy with a premium rating $8,100 in February

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1980-Topps-Basketball-Larry-Bird-Magic-Johnson-ROOKIE-RC-PSA-9-MINT-PWCC-A/143528516490?hash=item216af75b8a:g:qyUAAOSwFZNeQEy g

A standard copy like the first I posted sells for $7,565 tonight

https://www.ebay.com/itm/143553761477?_trksid=p2471758.m4704&autorefresh=true


Why not less than the one in January when the market was at all time highs? Why not drastically less?

[Republicaninmass]

"Alleged" Doctored altered cards run up by fake buyers groups and shill bids. Wait until next month when the same cards are listed



If you value your portfolio by PWCC sales prices, you will be in for a rude awakening come sale time. Yes, I refuse to even add any of their cards to my watch list to "increase eyeballs". I'll view real time sales from everyone else thank you.

They are the Parateum of cards with False earnings in my book.

[MULLINS5]

The first card has a noticeable print defect on the bottom right corner which could be why it sold for less than the other two.

I follow 79/80 OPC Hockey. There are a TON of Gretzkys being unloaded at the moment. That card, many years ago, used to sell for about $100 per PSA grade up to PSA 7. Now it's about three times that and doesn't look like it's going down. The big Gretzky card (PSA 9) grade is not trustworthy IMO because there is a larger opportunity to artificially inflate the price and create a facade for value - these type of cards shouldn't be considered when studying the card market as a whole.

[Dpeck100]

When people refer to the stock market they discuss the most important companies in the world and base their judgment on how they are performing.

These actively traded cards are a better example because they are liquid. In the cards I follow a Randy Orton PSA 10 rookie sold for $175 today. A very strong price. Very doubtful that card sells for that in auction. It’s a lot easier to sell an Andre than that card and if people end up really needing money the good stuff gets sold because it’s the easiest to move.

[seanofjapan]

Focusing on PWCC only tells you about current demand, it doesn't tell you anything about where demand or supply are going to be at in a couple months when the economic effects of this really start to be felt.

The writing on the wall is clear: lots of people are going to be needing money in the next few months just to get by. Either they'll have lost a job, had their hours cut, or seen their retirement savings decimated by the stock market crash. Government action might cushion the fallout a bit but noway is it going to solve any of it. So anyone with a collection who falls into one of those categories is likely to be making some tough choices in the coming weeks about what they need to get rid of in order to get some money.

And the problem is that all of these people will be making that decision at about the same time, which means you'll likely see a huge spike in stuff for sale this summer. They haven't flooded the market yet because this crisis has been sprung upon us so suddenly and most people who have decent collections probably have some savings to tide them over a bit. But once they reach that point, supply is going to go through the roof at exactly the same time demand craters because the people who are usually buyers have become sellers.

Its the perfect recipe for the market to tank completely. If PWCC prices are still high today, then the smart person would be selling everything they have like mad right now to take advantage of that because it won't last.

[oldjudge]

Here I was worrying about the stock market and the Coronavirus and I completely missed the fact that the Randy Orton PSA10s were doing well. That changes everything.

[japhi]

Here I was worrying about the stock market and the Coronavirus and I completely missed the fact that the Randy Orton PSA10s were doing well. That changes everything.

Agreed, huge if true.

[Exhibitman]

WTF is a "Randy Orton"??? Sounds like a horny cockney elephant.

[Dpeck100]

WTF is a "Randy Orton"??? Sounds like a horny cockney elephant.

One of the best wrestlers of the last 20 years.

His father is Bob Orton Jr. and his father is Bob Orton Sr. A great wrestling family.

He is in the 2002 WWE Fleer Royal Rumble with other notable cards of John Cena, Brock Lesnar, and Dave Bautista. They are black bordered and hard to get high grades on.

[oldjudge]

WTF is a "Randy Orton"??? Sounds like a horny cockney elephant.

Yes, “Orton ears a Ooo”. I read it as a tyke.

[Tyruscobb]

Wall Street may say one thing, but Main Street folks know differently - despite what Joe Blow PSA 10 sold for last night. Those that sell equities or cards are going to beat the everything is fine drum. They have an invested interest. I’m no chicken little, but know enough that this crisis could cause a significant recession. Make smart decisions during this time, folks. Godspeed.

[Shoeless Moe]

I know some don't like my WWII analogy to all of the current mess.

BUT.......

We lost over 405,000 Americans in WWII, and I'd say the vast majority were 18-30 years old young men. To me that's a lot sadder, then losing an 80 or 90 year old who have had quite a run.

We've lost 4 or 500 old people here. A handful of non-old. Even if we lose 20K when all is said and done, it's not close to 400K. And we came back strong after WWII, losing 400K. America needs to lose the we have to save every one mentality. This is now a new world. Some will die. We are not saving everyone. And destroying lives and the economy will be far worse then 500 old people dying sorry. It's like the Titanic folks, not everyone is getting in a lifeboat.

Yes its a mess, but it's not a mass killer. Less then 1% who get it will die. The FEAR promoted by the media, has contributed to beating the sh-t out of the economy and caused mass panic. It'd be nice if they used their platform to heal and get everyone back to work fairly soon. Shut NY for a month, maybe CA too (although that Gov. is an exagerrator - he just wants to look like the hero when the numbers are way low, you do the opposite and its political suicide, I get it), but the rest need to get back in a week or 2.

We need to get tough, isolate the old only, the rest of America get our asses back to work. Yes we are going to lose some people, sucks, sucks bad, but pretty soon enough is enough and we fight through it.

We defeated the British, the Japs, the Nazis, the Terrorists, we are going to get taken by a Chinese Virus?

NO we are not.

[brianp-beme]

Let's just hope (and do what we can to work toward) keeping this from getting out of control. If the low end of some predictions come true and 30% of the US population contract the virus, that is about 100 million US citizens out of 330 million. 1% of that amount is 1 million.

That's not just math, that's people we are talking about. And it is not just the old that are going to be dragged underground.

We have the right to be concerned, even if this (hopefully) only ends up killing 20,000 of us in the US.

Brian

[Shoeless Moe]

It ain't going from 40,000 to 30 million. Another FEAR monger giving those numbers. SENSATIONALISM Sells.

And yes be concerned, but not afraid to live your life. Now everyone is afraid.

and again see this article from 2018:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Why were there no charts showing how many were dying each week in each state. Could you imagine if the media showed that, 80,000 deaths vs 500 now. Imagine what that panic would have been. Wasn't an election year though, and must have been better stories. No one seemed to care about those 80,000 Americans.

Yes, this will be a bad week, it will get better.....STAY POSITIVE!!! (and don't watch too much CNN & MSNBC, so negative, and Fox while somewhat better, has their issues as well, can we get one station that just gives us the news without an agenda).

[Johnny630]

Who else thinks shilling Will be at all time new levels over the next few months ?

[Hankphenom]

The debate about how much to change the country's economic behavior in response to this virus is eminently worthy of discussion, but not here. And I'll continue to watch CNN and MSNBC to get the news, thanks, others can watch what they want.

[oldjudge]

It ain't going from 40,000 to 30 million. Another FEAR monger giving those numbers. SENSATIONALISM Sells.

And yes be concerned, but not afraid to live your life. Now everyone is afraid.

and again see this article from 2018:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Why were there no charts showing how many were dying each week in each state. Could you imagine if the media showed that, 80,000 deaths vs 500 now. Imagine what that panic would have been. Wasn't an election year though, and must have been better stories. No one seemed to care about those 80,000 Americans.

Yes, this will be a bad week, it will get better.....STAY POSITIVE!!! (and don't watch too much CNN & MSNBC, so negative, and Fox while somewhat better, has their issues as well, can we get one station that just gives us the news without an agenda).

40,000 is a meaningless number when very few people are being tested. The true number is much, much larger than that. Being optimistic is good, being blind to reality is not.

[Touch'EmAll]

Stock market affecting cards? I was watching a nicely centered 1955 Topps Mays PSA 7. Just went for $1,900.00 - Wow ! My bid not even close on this one. Went for over double SMR and way above any recent sales for that card.

[seanofjapan]

Stock market affecting cards? I was watching a nicely centered 1955 Topps Mays PSA 7. Just went for $1,900.00 - Wow ! My bid not even close on this one. Went for over double SMR and way above any recent sales for that card.

I imagine the same card will be going for $500 in June.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Dow will go up today 3/24/2020

i guess sell you cards today...

[Mark17]

One of the best wrestlers of the last 20 years.

His father is Bob Orton Jr. and his father is Bob Orton Sr. A great wrestling family.

He is in the 2002 WWE Fleer Royal Rumble with other notable cards of John Cena, Brock Lesnar, and Dave Bautista. They are black bordered and hard to get high grades on.

Since wrestling is fixed, how do you define "best wrestlers of the last 20 years?"

When I was a kid in Minnesota, Verne Gagne was considered the top wrestler. Every match ran the same script - he started off hot, then it looked like he would lose, but suddenly he came back to life and won.

Then there was Mad Dog Vachon, Larry Hennig, The Crusher, and others, who could never beat Verne, but who would win sometimes if wrestling against each other.

And then, the sad story of Kenny Jay, who was the Terry Felton of wrestling. Rumor had it that he actually won once, but I have my doubts.

Point is, when it's scripted and the winners are decided beforehand (as was confirmed for me by a former pro wrestler, Wolf Terminator) how do you define greatness? Maybe if they'd been honest matches, Kenny Jay may have beaten Verne a few times.

[Dpeck100]

Since wrestling is fixed, how do you define "best wrestlers of the last 20 years?"

When I was a kid in Minnesota, Verne Gagne was considered the top wrestler. Every match ran the same script - he started off hot, then it looked like he would lose, but suddenly he came back to life and won.

Then there was Mad Dog Vachon, Larry Hennig, The Crusher, and others, who could never beat Verne, but who would win sometimes if wrestling against each other.

And then, the sad story of Kenny Jay, who was the Terry Felton of wrestling. Rumor had it that he actually won once, but I have my doubts.

Point is, when it's scripted and the winners are decided beforehand (as was confirmed for me by a former pro wrestler, Wolf Terminator) how do you define greatness? Maybe if they'd been honest matches, Kenny Jay may have beaten Verne a few times.


This is an interesting question. Vern Gagne ran a wrestling training school during the time you mention and three long term top talents came out of there that I will use to answer this question. All three of these men trained at the same time and have much different talents that they used to build their careers. My wife has taken an interest in the balet and in many ways you can compare professional wrestling to it. You need athleticism, stamina, looks, acting skills, and charisma.

Ric Flair was a big guy when he entered Gagne's training program and because of the rigorous training schedule slimmed down to a more athletic build of around 240. He was still a very big guy but certainly not the size of many of the giant's of wrestling. Flair went on to have a lengthy career and arguably one of the best. Why? He was tremendous in the ring. One of his best skills was selling the other performers offense and making the fans believe he was going to lose only to come back and some how pull off the victory. He had tremendous charisma and was one of the best talkers ever on the microphone. His promos are legendary and are still recited to this day. He won the world title 16 times and yes he was chosen to win but he was chosen to win because he was reliable and he was a draw and his work rate was second to none. He could wrestle a legit six minutes in the ring and for anyone who does cardio it is mind boggling how tremendous of shape you have to be in to do that.

Next we have the Iron Sheik. He was a legit wrestler from Iran who competed at top levels and was known as a shooter. A shooter is a legit wrestler/fighter who if they decide they do not want to go with the story line they can have their way with the other wrestler. For most of his career he was a bad guy and his role was to incite the fans and in many cases make the good guys look better and sell tickets. By being billed from his home land of Iran he generated heat and was very believable in the ring. As legend has it Vern Gagne offered him 100k in 1984 when he faced Hulk Hogan in Vince Mcmahon's WWF for their heavyweight title to break Hogan's leg and not go along with the predetermined finish that would see Hogan take the title. Not all wrestlers are trained like this and in a real life street fight while Hogan is dramatically larger he would be no match at the time for the likes of the Iron Sheik.

Finally we have Ken Patera. A legit strong man and Olympic competitor who for a time was the worlds strongest man. He had a look that you just simply can't recreate. I have had the good fortune to get to work with him a few times in recent years at some wrestling conventions and he has the largest forearms even in his 70's I have ever seen on a human. In many ways wrestling was like the circus. They had something for everyone. Ken was a sight to be seen and was so strong that even though wrestling was thought to be scripted it was believable that he could over power anyone he wanted. In the late 70's he took on a more slimmed down body builder look and was easily one of the best bad guys in wrestling. He was never the best in ring performer but he was excellent at getting the crowd riled up and with his look and over all athleticism he helped create the appearance of a more legitimate contest.

Wrestling was thought to be a fixed sport but it wasn't confirmed until Vince McMahon decided to no longer employ the state athletic commission and declare it was indeed a predetermined sport. Randy Orton has wrestled during this time and he has had a tremendous career. Yes the WWE has to put him in the spots he is in but the only way to get those spots and to maintain those spots is to stay healthy and put on a great performance. He is in tremendous condition, has a great look, is excellent on the microphone, can wrestle as a face or heal and is naturally a better heal, and is a great in ring performer. For anyone who has watched wrestling for a long time there are some performers that can make the moves look tight and as real as possible and there are others where it is painfully obvious they are not hurting their foe. For this he is easily one of the best talents in the past twenty years and will be thought of longer term as one of the best from his era.

[Goudey77]

My son and I attend at least 4 WWE events a year. I grew up watching it. My kid watches it. The athleticism rivals any other "professional" sport.

What makes a wrestling talent great is usually how they connect with the audience on the microphone. Then telling the in ring story via their performance on the mat.

It's similar to what makes a movie start great. Same qualities.

Look at the "Rock" Dwayne Johnson. He is a wrestling "great".

[Shoeless Moe]

The debate about how much to change the country's economic behavior in response to this virus is eminently worthy of discussion, but not here. And I'll continue to watch CNN and MSNBC to get the news, thanks, others can watch what they want.

Didn't say don't watch those 2, said don't watch "too much" of those 2. I actually watch all 3, including Fox. I don't watch just one or exclude one like you. I watch all 3, I find that is best if you want to get a more accurate whole picture. You watch too much of any one of the 3 and they'll brainwash ya.

Dow bounced back big. NICE!!!! Of course could lose all that by the end of the week, who knows, let's hope not. Most likely will stay a roller coaster for a long while.

But today was nice, let's enjoy that in these bleak times!!!!

Like Cuomo said "This is war".

And like Trump says ya can't shut it down forever. Jobs and lives are at stake either way. The President has a tough job. He may be an ass at times, but he is our President and doing the best he can.

Every American needs to do something. You can't stay inside and shield yourself from the world for 6 months, a year, however long. Everyone does that WE fail.

The healthy MUST return to work soon, real soon. You are fighting for your 401K, you are fighting for your retirement, your kids college funds, you are fighting for the small businesses and for the workers who need jobs and have families, so you are fighting for the children of America. So take a little risk and get in the game baby!

And any conversation that involves the likes of Kenny J, Ken Patera, and Cowboy Bob Orton (prefer pops to the boy), love it!!!!

Remember when Patera and Saito wanted some McDonalds one night in Milwaukee, great story! Look it up.

[Shoeless Moe]

40,000 is a meaningless number when very few people are being tested. The true number is much, much larger than that. Being optimistic is good, being blind to reality is not.

Well if the true number is "much much" larger then that, which I'd agree with you, then the death rate is much much lower then they are showing. So that actually is good news.

[oldjudge]

I truly hope that the US death rate sets a new low. However, you have to remember that there is a time period between catching the disease, showing symptoms, and recovering or not. A year from now we will know what the true fatality rate was. All the 40,000 number showed was that very few people were being tested. Governor Cuomo said that N.Y. State cases will double every three days. NY is a hot spot. How many of those kids who packed onto beaches in Florida for spring break came from the N.Y. area? Now cases in Florida are growing by 20% a day. It goes on like this. Hopefully, self isolation and increased testing slows the spread down, but that will only work if people follow directions.

[h2oya311]

Well if the true number is "much much" larger then that, which I'd agree with you, then the death rate is much much lower then they are showing. So that actually is good news.

hard to get the death rate when there is not a correct denominator. Let's hope testing improves so that we know what we are truly dealing with.

[Dpeck100]

Shoeless Moe

You don't ask Patera about that situation! He has no filter and can get upset quick and that is something that is off limits!

Anyone who thinks we can shut the economy down for months is delusional. There isn't enough money in the world to keep the economy afloat.

It will be early April to mid April is my bet.

There is a loser on the CU boards that is saying PSA will be shut down until September. If that happens they run the risk of going under. We can't destroy the entire economy globally and send ourselves into a global depression. Thankfully our president realizes this.

If we get people back to work soon there is a very real chance a V shaped recovery can happen. I stopped at 7-11 to get some gas, a Sierra Nevada 16oz and a bag of wasabi almonds and I had to use my calculator to determine how much gas to buy. It was down over $8 a tank. This is real stimulus for joe six pack.

This was a serious bounce in the market today and the vix hit levels that every single time in history it has you have made money 12 months out on the market. The level of negativity is incredible and I am a contrarian by nature and this to me is a great sign. The number of arm chair economists is off the charts and that is a good sign. Time will tell.

[MULLINS5]

Let's hope PSA shuts down for good.

They're a fraudulent company that sold services they did not deliver on.

Will it happen? Most likely not.