View Full Version : Relevant to our hobby or not?
Snapolit1
09-07-2019, 09:49 AM
I’d say it is. And I don’t know any scandal rocking that hobby akin to what’s going on on with cards.
Lots of the same logic would seem to apply here.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-07/the-classic-car-feeding-frenzy-is-over-for-skittish-collectors
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 10:01 AM
I've been following the car market for some time now and wondering the same thing. I think the major difference is that there's a much more robust mid-level market in cards. While we have our million dollar items there aren't nearly as many as there were million dollar cars, and I think that comparison holds even down into the 10's of thousands level. In cards you can still do some impressive things with a budget under $10,000/year. In the car market that's a joke. I guess what I'm saying is even though the middle class is shrinking, they haven't been priced out of the card market yet. That's not to say we're not headed down the same path, but I don't think we're there yet.
Snapolit1
09-07-2019, 10:38 AM
Good points. But I do think the mid level of this hobby will suffer. Some guy is always going to pay boku bucks for the Ruth 1 of 2 or PSA 9. I don’t think the mid grade cards will fare well. Ungraded and lesser cards look will always be in demand as a lot of people will just want one.
Orioles1954
09-07-2019, 10:42 AM
As someone who works in the industry I'm noticing this with 1950s-1970s Topps sets. They are being unloaded at record rates. Prices haven't suffered...yet.
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 11:25 AM
Yes but nobody is buying a Dusenberg to break it up and sell the parts. While that is what is happening with sets.
Complete sets have always been a bargain if you were breaking them and could move the commons in a timely fashion. With grading that greatly increased the return on high end sets. We sold a 1975 Topps set at our live auction for almost $2,000. The collectors in the crowd thought it was insane (I have to say it was easily the nicest 1975 set I had ever seen, even down to centering) But the dealer who bought it got his money back out of one card. It's an issue for the future, but a different one from the car world. Again you can't buy a Duesnberg for a million and then sell the engine for a million and make a profit on the rest of the common parts.
bnorth
09-07-2019, 12:08 PM
Yes but nobody is buying a Dusenberg to break it up and sell the parts. While that is what is happening with sets.
Complete sets have always been a bargain if you were breaking them and could move the commons in a timely fashion. With grading that greatly increased the return on high end sets. We sold a 1975 Topps set at our live auction for almost $2,000. The collectors in the crowd thought it was insane (I have to say it was easily the nicest 1975 set I had ever seen, even down to centering) But the dealer who bought it got his money back out of one card. It's an issue for the future, but a different one from the car world. Again you can't buy a Duesnberg for a million and then sell the engine for a million and make a profit on the rest of the common parts.
I can comment on the car part. I have no idea on a Duesnberg but as someone who has owned several Porsches I can guarantee they are worth WAY more in parts than together.:)
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 12:14 PM
I'd be willing to bet that's not true for a particularly rare Porsche.
bnorth
09-07-2019, 12:34 PM
I'd be willing to bet that's not true for a particularly rare Porsche.
I respectfully disagree.
Relatively speaking IF you actually drive high end foreign sports cars they are WAY more expensive to own long term than to buy. At least in my experience. Parts are silly crazy expensive. My wife totaled her first and only Porsche. I bought it from the insurance company and parted it out for almost twice what we originally paid for it.
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 12:36 PM
The ones I am talking about aren't being driven!
My low raw city bus pass collection is safe.
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 12:50 PM
lol
RedsFan1941
09-07-2019, 01:35 PM
high-end auto parts are the biggest scam in dentistry.
tedzan
09-07-2019, 01:43 PM
As a long-time owner (40+ years) of 2 classic Thunderbirds, I do not see much relevance between the car and card hobbies.
I've been to numerous vintage shows over the years and there are very distinct differences between personalities (and their
mentalities) of the people involved in these two hobbies.
But, most of all (as we have unfortunately seen) you can "fake" pieces of cardboard. You cannot fake machines, and/or their
operating parts, and expect to get away with it.
Furthermore, Ben is absolutely correct regarding the "break-up" parts value of any high-demand car (vintage or more recent).
http://photos.imageevent.com/tedzan77/images/large/tedz57tbirdmmbattennis.jpg
http://photos.imageevent.com/tedzan77/images/large/1960TBIRDwoodshed.jpg
TED Z
T206 Reference (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=237816)
.
Republicaninmass
09-07-2019, 02:00 PM
Sure, people never swap VIN numbers
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 02:00 PM
high-end auto parts are the biggest scam in dentistry.
Sure bring that up again lol.
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-07-2019, 02:02 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/auto/this-is-how-counterfeiters-scam-classic-car-collectors
Scott L.
09-07-2019, 02:24 PM
On a side note that story on the “Porsche” Type 64 was really interesting.
I really hope the price of cardboard takes a royal dump. It would be nice to see more reasonable prices/valuations for the hobbyist.
I've always looked at this as collecting pieces of history of a sport I've always loved. The value of my collection wouldn't suffer because I put ZERO value to it. I buy it, I look at it, I enjoy it - I rarely sell any of it. The prices of this stuff could drop 90% and I'm good because I never thought of it as an investment to begin with.
barrysloate
09-07-2019, 03:06 PM
The baseball card hobby is certainly due for a correction as prices are insanely high.
Exhibitman
09-07-2019, 05:20 PM
My low raw city bus pass collection is safe.
https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibitman/miscellaneous4/websize/1976%20The%20Transport%20Co%20Aaron%20ticket.jpg
bnorth
09-07-2019, 06:54 PM
The baseball card hobby is certainly due for a correction as prices are insanely high.
The only prewar card I have followed in the last year is the T206 Red Cobb. The price on it has been dropping like a rock off a cliff. About 8 months ago you couldn't buy a complete beater for $1500, I know I was trying. Now I have seen much nicer examples selling for under $1000. Have no idea how the higher graded red Cobbs are doing.
I follow red cobbs a little bit too. Just like any art piece it is about the aesthetics. The best specimens for the grade haven't gone down in value that I have seen. A 1.5 should be around 1500 dollars......show me as many like this and I will buy all you have at that price. IT is true that the lesser looking ones might take a dip...but the best ones, I haven't seen it yet.
As for the subject, I also see some similarities in the hobbies.
http://luckeycards.com/t206cobb.jpg
The only prewar card I have followed in the last year is the T206 Red Cobb. The price on it has been dropping like a rock off a cliff. About 8 months ago you couldn't buy a complete beater for $1500, I know I was trying. Now I have seen much nicer examples selling for under $1000. Have no idea how the higher graded red Cobbs are doing.
bnorth
09-08-2019, 07:42 AM
I follow red cobbs a little bit too. Just like any art piece it is about the aesthetics. The best specimens for the grade haven't gone down in value that I have seen. A 1.5 should be around 1500 dollars......show me as many like this and I will buy all you have at that price. IT is true that the lesser looking ones might take a dip...but the best ones, I haven't seen it yet.
As for the subject, I also see some similarities in the hobbies.
http://luckeycards.com/t206cobb.jpg
That's a beautiful card, would have to get real lucky to find one like that for $1500 when I was looking. My next bigger(for me) card purchase is going to be a red Cobb with a Old Mill back. Waiting for the latest scandal to get over with hopes the market crashes hard.
The car thing is kinda simular but the terminology is different. I had a very interesting childhood and 20's. I know A LOT about cars like that Corvette. Like altered cards you need to find someone that knows very little about them to sell altered cars.
Aquarian Sports Cards
09-08-2019, 08:49 AM
God I'm getting paranoid. That gorgeous 1.5 is very short.
That's a beautiful card, would have to get real lucky to find one like that for $1500 when I was looking. My next bigger(for me) card purchase is going to be a red Cobb with a Old Mill back. Waiting for the latest scandal to get over with hopes the market crashes hard.
The car thing is kinda simular but the terminology is different. I had a very interesting childhood and 20's. I know A LOT about cars like that Corvette. Like altered cards you need to find someone that knows very little about them to sell altered cars.
A problem I have with current grading standards is that card gets a Fair
CurtisFlood
09-08-2019, 01:45 PM
I really hope the price of cardboard takes a royal dump. It would be nice to see more reasonable prices/valuations for the hobbyist.
I've always looked at this as collecting pieces of history of a sport I've always loved. The value of my collection wouldn't suffer because I put ZERO value to it. I buy it, I look at it, I enjoy it - I rarely sell any of it. The prices of this stuff could drop 90% and I'm good because I never thought of it as an investment to begin with.
Supply and demand Fred. Always has driven the market.
steve B
09-08-2019, 06:30 PM
God I'm getting paranoid. That gorgeous 1.5 is very short.
It may be oversize, as it's in a sleeve. I think the holder is a bit big to take the sleeve.
Directly
09-08-2019, 06:46 PM
The only prewar card I have followed in the last year is the T206 Red Cobb. The price on it has been dropping like a rock off a cliff. About 8 months ago you couldn't buy a complete beater for $1500, I know I was trying. Now I have seen much nicer examples selling for under $1000. Have no idea how the higher graded red Cobbs are doing.
Just last week the T206 Cobb's were trending on PSA Price Guide--
Red portrait --PR1--$800 to VG/Ex4 $4500.00 showing Green + up across the board, can a PSA 4 be bought at that level?
Ruth and Gehrig Goudy's appear to be trading up too.
It may be oversize, as it's in a sleeve. I think the holder is a bit big to take the sleeve.
It is oversized. That is one reason I bought it.