10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[Peter_Spaeth]

OK.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-11-T206-Cy-Young-CLEVELAND-PORTRAIT-PSA-5-EX-PWCC-PQ-/352525791800?hash=item52142cb238%3Ag%3AbjcAAOSwEON b-Z9d&nma=true&si=cilwSXAb5t6xcfIgd2%252BREMjaLzU%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

[SetBuilder]

OK.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-11-T206-Cy-Young-CLEVELAND-PORTRAIT-PSA-5-EX-PWCC-PQ-/352525791800?hash=item52142cb238%3Ag%3AbjcAAOSwEON b-Z9d&nma=true&si=cilwSXAb5t6xcfIgd2%252BREMjaLzU%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

No way that's a 5. Seriously under graded.

Buy the card, not the holder.

[trdcrdkid]

Hey, it’s Certified Premium Quality! You can’t beat that!

[Throttlesteer]

Its PWCC. People throw their wallets at their auctions, even without the stickers. This one is definitely surprising though.

[MichelaiTorres83]

It looks like a 6 easily.

[swarmee]

Bottom right corner looks rounded like a Beta Magic card to me. But rest of card looks really nice. Maybe a 5.5, but not a 6.

Edit: Beta reference is for Bobby.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

look at the bid history. doubt it gets paid for, but it will look nice on VCP

[Rhotchkiss]

The Matty and Wajo portraits also went for crazy prices.

[ullmandds]

All these ridiculous run ups on prices of some very common cards are starting to feel like the run up of the stock market in recent times...and we're all seeing how thats turning out?

[Republicaninmass]

I have to laugh. All these guys with under 100 feedback are jumping feet first into the mid grade t206 market!

[darwinbulldog]

High bidder: "Woops. Thought that was Cobb. Isn't that what Cobb looked like?"

[Touch'EmAll]

I suppose you can call them common. But the top tier HOF'ers in EX5 and higher are seeing the market less often these days. 5-10 years ago eBay seemed to semi regularly have them available, through several basic Joe sellers like us. Honestly, they are now surfacing with not as much regularity. I bet the quantity of people in the demand department is also up significantly compared to 5-10 years ago. This grouping of major T206 HOF'ers was strong on condition for the grade - more so than other pwcc similar groups. I drooled, then checked my budget, then sat back and sighed - out of my price range anymore. Glad I picked up these puppies years ago and stashed them. I showed my wife some prices last night - she wants to sell a couple for new carpet, hmm, don't know about that.

[ullmandds]

I suppose only the future knows if these prices are for real or not...its certainly easy to justify them...or NOT!

[Republicaninmass]

I suppose only the future knows if these prices are for real or not...its certainly easy to justify them...or NOT!

Well when they come down to half....it might LOOK like a steal!

[ullmandds]

Well when they come down to half....it might LOOK like a steal!

I think thats the "strategy" at work here to be honest with you!!

[The Nasty Nati]

There are 81 PSA 5s, 34 PSA 6s, 19 PSA 7s, 14 PSA 8s, and 1 PSA 9—For a total of 149 Cy Young Portraits graded 5 or higher. I can’t get the SGC pop report to work right now, but let’s say its roughy the same, and we throw in some raw examples that haven't been graded for good measure, that brings the total pop of Cy Young Portraits graded EX or better to nearly 300.

It’s a great card and one of my favorite portraits in the set, but when there are nearly 300 others out there with identical if not better appearance, I just don’t see how you can justify paying $10k…but what do I know.

[Touch'EmAll]

In supply & demand theory, the quantity supplied refers to the amount of a certain good that people are willing to supply when receiving a certain price. Yes, there may be quite a few (relatively) out there - but that does not mean they are out there willing to be supplied - aka "available". These cards are tucked away and stashed in collections and can be considered not even available. I have several, but I am not going to sell them, or even try to sell them. So basically, may cards are not in the supply quantity, I am not willing to supply them to the market. Probably same goes for a lot of collectors holding nice T206's - happy to just keep them and won't be seeing the market anytime soon. Therefore, the true market supply is lower than we may think.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Well I would argue somewhat that not many 5's are going to look as nice as that one, but I don't disagree with your larger point.

[griffon512]

There are 81 PSA 5s, 34 PSA 6s, 19 PSA 7s, 14 PSA 8s, and 1 PSA 9—For a total of 149 Cy Young Portraits graded 5 or higher. I can’t get the SGC pop report to work right now, but let’s say its roughy the same, and we throw in some raw examples that haven't been graded for good measure, that brings the total pop of Cy Young Portraits graded EX or better to nearly 300.

It’s a great card and one of my favorite portraits in the set, but when there are nearly 300 others out there with identical if not better appearance, I just don’t see how you can justify paying $10k…but what do I know.

Thanks for posting this data. I have a very difficult time justifying the price as well, but I think it highlights how important eye appeal is in getting premium pricing. I very much doubt there is anywhere near 300 cards in this pop with the level of eye appeal as that card. I would guess that less than 20% of same or higher graded Cy Young portraits have similar centering and registration as the one sold. Centering and central image quality are more important than corners to many collectors. In addition, I think a lot of intelligent and/or skeptical collectors are focusing on mid-grade cards because it's less likely they were "worked on" than cards graded 8-10.

[mechanicalman]

I suppose you can call them common. But the top tier HOF'ers in EX5 and higher are seeing the market less often these days. 5-10 years ago eBay seemed to semi regularly have them available, through several basic Joe sellers like us. Honestly, they are now surfacing with not as much regularity. I bet the quantity of people in the demand department is also up significantly compared to 5-10 years ago. This grouping of major T206 HOF'ers was strong on condition for the grade - more so than other pwcc similar groups. I drooled, then checked my budget, then sat back and sighed - out of my price range anymore. Glad I picked up these puppies years ago and stashed them. I showed my wife some prices last night - she wants to sell a couple for new carpet, hmm, don't know about that.

I think this is the best post in the thread. The fact is a well-centered Cy Young Portrait in a 5 is not common card at all. People seem to pay all sorts of premiums for a common T206 with a rare back because we can seemingly quantify the rarity via pop reports. If only we could quantify the rarity of very strong eye appeal cards, my anecdotal belief is that the premiums paid would not seem that outrageous. I'm sad to admit I check eBay and auctions on a daily basis for cards like Cy Portraits, and cards like that just don't appear that often in my observation. I can understand someone going strong if they're sick of waiting. I didn't buy it, by the way.

[MichelaiTorres83]

Bottom right corner looks rounded like a Beta Magic card to me. But rest of card looks really nice. Maybe a 5.5, but not a 6.

Edit: Beta reference is for Bobby.

I have seen worse 6s that are worse than this 5. Clearly someone thinks it a 6 or better. It has great presentation. I would pay 6 price for it. I believe there was a 6 that last sold for 8000. I don’t think this price is outragous based on that sale.

[swarmee]

It would not receive a 6 from PSA today. They are grading tougher than they were 20 years ago. If someone bought it expecting a bump, I think they'll spend a lot of money to get the card a 5.5, but no higher.

[The Nasty Nati]

This PSA 5 Cy Young sold in Sept for $5k. And this SGC 5 sold on Nov 7 for $3.6k. The one that sold for $10k is nice, but not more than twice as nice, nice.

And yeah I agree that certain well-centered cards with nice registration are hard to come by, but certain cards are easier to find in these conditions than others. If you look at Worthpoint you'll find a lot of nice looking Cy Young Portrait examples.

The other top tier HOFers like Walter Johnson Portrait and Cobb Red Portrait (even though it's a superprint) I think are much tougher to find in great eye appeal condition.

And no I don't own any of these. And yes I'm jealous of those that do. :)

[bounce]

Oh how quickly we've forgotten 2016. I understand it's not quite apples to apples, but the bigger point still applies. The Koufax example could be replaced by dozens if not hundreds of others.

1955 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
- Prior to 2016, sells consistently under $2000
- Steadily climbs in price to May 2016 - when at least 4 cards sell over $6000, with a peak reported price of $6800
- July-Sept 2016 seems to settle back down in the $4000-4500 range (give or take 10%), with a couple exceptions as high as over $8000
- Steadily declines from there to $2500-ish first half of 2017
- Declines further during 2nd half of 2017 with several below $2000
- Bounced around between $2000-3000 all of 2018

1969 Topps Lew Alcindor PSA 8
- Prior to 2016, sub $2000 card
- Explodes in first half of 2016 to over $10000
- Collapsed back to $5000-ish last half of 2016, with one $14000 PWCC HE outlier
- Declined back to $4000-5000 mostly, with a handful of exceptions in the $8000 range that have literally impeccable centering and probably are bump candidates. A PSA 9 on this card is really tough and really rare.


This thread was about the Young, but there were numerous others from last night that were awfully big changes.

Red Chance 6 that I think had been crossed from SGC to PSA, took it from $1100 previously to $1850

Cobb bat off P5.5 $10200 - REA sold a nice 6! last year for $7800.

SGC 50 Red Cobb with registration that makes it appear he's looking up to the sky - $4100 - REALLY?!?!

Wajo P5 $7700 - that's DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3500 that are nice looking cards

Mathewson P5 $6200 - also nearly DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3600 for equally nice looking cards

Ruth 33 Goudey Yellow SGC 5 $15600 - marked high end despite L/R off center and mild tilt - similar cards sold earlier this year in the $10-11k range

38 Goudey Dimaggio 4 $4350 - similar cards were $3500 previously

I have owned 5s or better of all the Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson and Young portraits at one point or other in the past. It is just my opinion, but I don't consider any of those particularly RARE cards. These were very nice looking, but I've seen plenty of others that were also nice looking previously that weren't effectively double the previous selling prices. Yes, many of these sit in collections and somewhat off-limits, but that's not a forever phenomenon on these cards. That's much more applicable with the 7s and 8s - not the really pretty 5s.

I'm sure there are plenty of other examples, those above are just the ones that caught my eye because I was BLOWN OUT bidding on them. Undoubtedly there will be many more coming tonight with the mid-50s RCs.

One that interestingly went the other way was the Magie error. Seems like maybe someone got a heck of a deal on that if that's a card you're into.

Overall I do think these prices have shown the strength in the big name guys and their popular cards. However, what concerns me a bit more is what is really at the core of these prices and is it really a step change in price, or just some new entrants that got far too excited?

I think it's probably prudent to be cautious of drawing too many conclusions from this single auction.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Are we seeing the next generation of so called market pushers? People seemed to fall for it in 2016, so maybe if that's what's happening, they will again. I can still hear people mocking me saying those prices back then that DR references were just competition for nice cards.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Pretty much what I was saying in my post Peter. If it walks like a fish, talks like a fish and stinks like a fish...

[Throttlesteer]

Honestly, the same discussion comes up almost every month with PWCC auctions. They do have nice stuff and it does seem quality material comes up less frequently. I was priced out of almost everything last night but felt good not falling for the mayhem. I did get a nicely-centered PSA 5 Eddie Collins M116 for a good deal. But, there just isn't the craziness for M116s..........yet.

[Chuck]

I'm a relative newbie to T206 collecting, but just how accurate are these pop reports from PSA and SGC? I hear you all talk all the time about resubmitting cards for grading, hoping to get a higher grade from the other company. Then the new owner may do the same - then a new owner may do it yet again. How many times has the same card gone through the grading process with these same companies, to be added, yet again, as another entry to the pop report? I'm guessing the numbers are significantly inflated.

And I agree - what percentage of these cards have the degree of centering and registration - that eye-popping presentation to them - that that EX Young portrait has - among those graded in that range? Not that many. I'm a budget collector - usually purchasing cards in the PSA 2-4 range (as my budget allows), but I see 6-8 range cards all the time that I would have no interest adding to my collection, due to odd centering or registration characteristics. I'm not a cardboard collector, so some minor creasing and corner wear (which on a T206 can actually add to the appearance in my opinion) on a card pale in significance to me versus centering, clarity, and overall presentation. Give me a well centered, well registered "3" over an "8 OC" any day!

[Rhotchkiss]

Simply put, the prices that the t206 portraits brought last night are not normal.

[DeanH3]

10K is steep, but I feel like I've been saying that about prices for years. They keep rising. I'm sure we will see a pull back at some point, but examples that are centered with bold color and registration will still command a premium. It took me a long time to find a Young and Red Cobby that had all three qualities.

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture.php?albumid=1127&pictureid=10124

[Rhotchkiss]

Show off!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

I know it's hard to draw conclusions from bid histories, but there were 5 bidders north of 4K. 4 had 100 percent bidding with PWCC and the 5th had 97 percent. All had under 100 feedbacks.

[DeanH3]

Show off!!

:D

[bounce]

I know it's hard to draw conclusions from bid histories, but there were 5 bidders north of 4K. 4 had 100 percent bidding with PWCC and the 5th had 97 percent. All had under 100 feedbacks.

I noticed similar, particularly what I would consider the low feedback.

Not entirely sure what it means, but for now I think I'm leaning toward it being buyers who just got overly excited overly the quality of those cards and got caught up in a bidding war.

When prices are rising and the quality is there, it's easy to justify overpaying.

Prices only go up...until they don't.

[Throttlesteer]

The one positive thing from all of this is a big supply of slightly off-center, less-than-perfect registered specimens that can be had for a bargain

[Leon]

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

[Peter_Spaeth]

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

Perhaps, but it's never happened before, apparently. Many of these prices smashed all records. These surely aren't the first examples of very nice for the grade T206s.

[Leon]

Perhaps, but it's never happened before, apparently. Many of these prices smashed all records. These surely aren't the first examples of very nice for the grade T206s.

More collectors are coming to their senses and collecting cards and not flips?

[Peter_Spaeth]

More collectors are coming to their senses and collecting cards and not flips?

That explanation was given in 2016 too, FWIW.

[Leon]

That explanation was given in 2016 too, FWIW.

It was important then and more important now :). And I think we have been saying buy the card and not the holder since the Gretzky Wagner was graded. :cool:

[bounce]

That explanation was given in 2016 too, FWIW.

More collectors are coming to their senses and collecting cards and not flips?

It was important then and more important now :). And I think we have been saying buy the card and not the holder since the Gretzky Wagner was graded. :cool:

And this is why it's been called "collecting" and not "investing", up until last few years anyway?

I can't imagine EVER referring to my collection as a "portfolio". Good grief. :rolleyes:

Seems to me the "justification machine" is on full tilt right now.

What's next - extensive restoration?!?! :D

[ullmandds]

And this is why it's been called "collecting" and not "investing", up until last few years anyway?

I can't imagine EVER referring to my collection as a "portfolio". Good grief. :rolleyes:

Seems to me the "justification machine" is on full tilt right now.

What's next - extensive restoration?!?! :D

yep!

[Peter_Spaeth]

It was important then and more important now :). And I think we have been saying buy the card and not the holder since the Gretzky Wagner was graded. :cool:

Yes, but pay a sensible price for it, not an off the charts world record.

[barrysloate]

T206 Young portrait is a high demand card, this example was particularly nice, the price was way over the top, and the T206 market continues to be overheated.

A confluence of all those factors at the same time.

[steve B]

Maybe it's just me, but I just can't get past those corners to a 5. Maybe 4.5, a 4 but 5, nope.

[steve B]

And this is why it's been called "collecting" and not "investing", up until last few years anyway?

I can't imagine EVER referring to my collection as a "portfolio". Good grief. :rolleyes:

Seems to me the "justification machine" is on full tilt right now.

What's next - extensive restoration?!?! :D


By "last few" do you mean since the 1980's? Because I've heard cards referred to as investments since at least then.

[Throttlesteer]

Maybe it's just me, but I just can't get past those corners to a 5. Maybe 4.5, a 4 but 5, nope.

Wow, you're a tough grader. I would put those corners at a solid 5. The lower right is the only one that has me thinking. I've seen a lot worse and few better for the grade (assuming no other significant detractors).

[Yoda]

I suppose you can call them common. But the top tier HOF'ers in EX5 and higher are seeing the market less often these days. 5-10 years ago eBay seemed to semi regularly have them available, through several basic Joe sellers like us. Honestly, they are now surfacing with not as much regularity. I bet the quantity of people in the demand department is also up significantly compared to 5-10 years ago. This grouping of major T206 HOF'ers was strong on condition for the grade - more so than other pwcc similar groups. I drooled, then checked my budget, then sat back and sighed - out of my price range anymore. Glad I picked up these puppies years ago and stashed them. I showed my wife some prices last night - she wants to sell a couple for new carpet, hmm, don't know about that.

My God, a new carpet. Next she will wanting new shoes for the kids.

[bounce]

By "last few" do you mean since the 1980's? Because I've heard cards referred to as investments since at least then.

And the same thing was at one point or another said about:
Beanie Babies
Hot Wheels / Matchbox cars
Precious Moments figurines
Antique miniature trains
Cabbage Patch kids
All those limited edition plates
Tons of Franklin Mint stuff

Just because someone says it doesn't make it so.

It's impossible to deny that in the past 3-4 years specifically, the talk of "alternative asset class" and "investment portfolio of cards" has reached a whole new crescendo.

[Touch'EmAll]

Ha, good one! She actually has the kids dialed in with shoes. Just stretched a little thin right now with repairs to a couple of houses.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Eye appeal greatly affects market value. Since 2015, cards with superior eye appeal, highlighted by the PWCC Certified High End brand, have realized prices 65% higher than market value on average. A complete download of all PWCC-HE sales and related statistics is available on PWCC Marketplace website.

The premium paid for cards with superior eye appeal and highlighted by the PWCC-HE designation reveals an investment trend largely in its infancy. As a key investment variable, the eye appeal of a vintage trading card seems destined to have an increasingly significant impact on market value for the foreseeable future. Investors are encouraged to take notice of this topic and invest accordingly.

THIS IS A QUOTE FROM PWCC

[mechanicalman]

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

Great post. I agree with your suspicions that many more collectors are bidding like this today.

[Peter_Spaeth]

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

[mechanicalman]

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.

[Snapolit1]

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

[Peter_Spaeth]

There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.

Sam, the 2016 run up involved plenty of cards in 4 and 5 figures. I'm not sure what's happening now -- I was quite sure back in 2016 because it was so obvious and pervasive -- I only note my skepticism when cards suddenly go off the rails.

[ullmandds]

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

This is certainly a possibility...as are other scenarios.

[steve B]

And the same thing was at one point or another said about:
Beanie Babies
Hot Wheels / Matchbox cars
Precious Moments figurines
Antique miniature trains
Cabbage Patch kids
All those limited edition plates
Tons of Franklin Mint stuff

Just because someone says it doesn't make it so.

It's impossible to deny that in the past 3-4 years specifically, the talk of "alternative asset class" and "investment portfolio of cards" has reached a whole new crescendo.


Yes, it's increased lately, and with more flowery language.


But the number of people who were expecting to put their kids through college on their holdings of 1990 cards was really large. And buying lots of 100 or 500 or more of the "can't miss" rookies was a thing in at least the early 80's.

[steve B]

Wow, you're a tough grader. I would put those corners at a solid 5. The lower right is the only one that has me thinking. I've seen a lot worse and few better for the grade (assuming no other significant detractors).


I suppose I should send all the ones that got 4s from SGC to PSA. I might do really well.

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture.php?albumid=123&pictureid=7483http://www.net54baseball.com/picture.php?albumid=123&pictureid=3319http://www.net54baseball.com/picture.php?albumid=123&pictureid=3318http://www.net54baseball.com/picture.php?albumid=123&pictureid=3317

[MichelaiTorres83]

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

I have spent time ensuring I didnt overpay to find the perfect card at the perfect price only to find out i waited so long... so perfectly that the prices went up that if i hadnt done so wrt to the price i would have came out ahead. Pull the trigger is my motto at this point on THE card. If you have to wait out the justification....eh. No problem. I am a collecter.

[pokerplyr80]

Eye appeal greatly affects market value. Since 2015, cards with superior eye appeal, highlighted by the PWCC Certified High End brand, have realized prices 65% higher than market value on average. A complete download of all PWCC-HE sales and related statistics is available on PWCC Marketplace website.

The premium paid for cards with superior eye appeal and highlighted by the PWCC-HE designation reveals an investment trend largely in its infancy. As a key investment variable, the eye appeal of a vintage trading card seems destined to have an increasingly significant impact on market value for the foreseeable future. Investors are encouraged to take notice of this topic and invest accordingly.

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

[MVSNYC]

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

[Snapolit1]

Yes, it's increased lately, and with more flowery language.


But the number of people who were expecting to put their kids through college on their holdings of 1990 cards was really large. And buying lots of 100 or 500 or more of the "can't miss" rookies was a thing in at least the early 80's.

None of the above were collected by 50 year old + financially set rich men. Not many filthy rich dudes on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley were collecting Beanie Babies or match box cars.

[Millerd33]

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Lajoie has seen insane price increases. It wasn't long ago that was an 85.00 card as a 1. Now you can't touch one under 200.00.

Speaker saw a small jump a few months back and has really cooled off.

[steve B]

None of the above were collected by 50 year old + financially set rich men. Not many filthy rich dudes on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley were collecting Beanie Babies or match box cars.


The original statement was that it's only been in the "last few" years that cards have been considered and investment.


to me last few is somewhere around 5 years give or take maybe a couple.


Here's a pretty serious article about collectibles as an investment from 1999 sadly behind a paywall.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647019?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents


Grading companies were started mostly to attract the guys with big money. Enough people wanted to collect, wanted quality, but didn't want to spend a lot of valuable time learning how to tell what was great and what was average. PSA got into it around 1990? 91?
So roughly 28 years ago.


From 2012, the toy boat collector in the article had been collecting for 30 years. And it seems wasn't exactly short of cash...
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/04/11/investors-snap-up-collectible-toys.html

[Rhotchkiss]

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

[ullmandds]

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

[Throttlesteer]

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

[Leon]

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

[boneheadandrube]

Maybe someone is buying X-mas gifts.

[ullmandds]

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

Truth hurts sometimes.

[Throttlesteer]

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

I wish this was even a possibility. Sadly, I just miss out on a lot of great cards because others have deep pockets. I just focus on other things that don't get the attention.

Most of the mayhem seems to be around portraits. I'm guessing these high bidders are trying to anticipate the next green Cobb or something.

[Leon]

Truth hurts sometimes.

Pete...nm

[Peter_Spaeth]

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

This.
I don't understand the reflexive defense of highly unusual prices. Remember 2016 and proceed with caution. In this hobby, legitimate prices rarely, if ever, skyrocket overnight.

[paleocards]

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):


336663


And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:


336664


Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Those are very nice 5s, exactly of the sort I look for myself.

[Rhotchkiss]

Paleocards, please know I was not knocking record holders. Indeed, I hold a few records myself. When you see you want, sometimes you just gotta go for it. That’s probably what happened with Mr Deep Pockets. But query whether he was bidding against another Deep Pocket or someone else with different intentions?

And I agree, I would take your cards all day long for half the price. You did well

[Throttlesteer]

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):


336663


And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:


336664


Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

Beautiful 5s!

[Touch'EmAll]

Nice fat borders on those 2. The Johnson is particularly nice, congrats. Who knows, in due time they might look like bargains.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.

[ullmandds]

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.

Haha...I tell you...it's a conundrum. I DO believe there may be a few wealthy collectors who don't care what they spend on some high quality old cardboard...they just pay whatever it takes to get what they want...it's possible. But on Cy young/Walter Johnson portrait t206's...it just seems a little too convenient for me as a way to rationalize the running up of certain cards just as was done a few years ago with high grade 50's rookie cards by a "group" of people in the hobby.

[Peter_Spaeth]

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

The first post was quoting Brent. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I don't have a theory yet, just on alert.

[dariushou]

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

[Leon]

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

[frankbmd]

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

Forget about cards Leon. Think of the hammer price of your thinking cap at auction. Where will you consign?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Nobody's trying to "corner the market" though. in 2016 those guys didn't control a significant percentage of the Clemente or Aaron rookies, they merely drove up the price indicators until people were willing to actually pay the inflated prices. then they dumped the cards they did have that they had been pretending to sell to each other. There's no way of knowing for sure if this Cy Young is the next wave of that kind of manipulation, but I certainly can't discount it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Nobody's trying to "corner the market" though. in 2016 those guys didn't control a significant percentage of the Clemente or Aaron rookies, they merely drove up the price indicators until people were willing to actually pay the inflated prices. then they dumped the cards they did have that they had been pretending to sell to each other. There's no way of knowing for sure if this Cy Young is the next wave of that kind of manipulation, but I certainly can't discount it.

Right. In a market like this where people rely heavily on historical prices, you just need to be able to manipulate the price, not control supply. In 2016 plenty of people started to panic and pay insane prices for cards fearing they would go even higher.

One of my favorites, a Koufax RC in an 8 for 80K. Right.

http://goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?inventoryid=33087

Even more disturbing was the disingenuous writeup.

Koufax.

Be Prepared for Return on Investment.

Koufax rookies are among the hottest cards in the hobby today. Demand is outpacing supply on a consistent basis and the market has reacted. Prices at auction continue to escalate provided the condition is at the highest level. And at a PSA 8, there aren’t many examples that exceed this magnificent offering. In fact, 15 PSA 8.5’s are known, to go with 22 PSA 9’s and 3 GEM MINT 10’s.

For the discerning collector or the profit-driven investor, this card should be an automatic. The Koufax rookie card’s climb has been as remarkable as Koufax pitching at Dodger Stadium on a hot summer day. We expect the day to come very soon, when Koufax rookies at PSA 8 will be selling well in excess of $200,000 and perhaps as $250,000. If you’ve ever contemplated a Clemente rookie, we strongly encourage you investigate this card.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I remember that write-up. Gotta say I like Bill, but this just feels slimy.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I remember that write-up. Gotta say I like Bill, but this just feels slimy.

I was shocked to see that coming from him, honestly.

[Throttlesteer]

Right. In a market like this where people rely heavily on historical prices, you just need to be able to manipulate the price, not control supply. In 2016 plenty of people started to panic and pay insane prices for cards fearing they would go even higher.

One of my favorites, a Koufax RC in an 8 for 80K. Right.

http://goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?inventoryid=33087

Even more disturbing was the disingenuous writeup.

Koufax.

Be Prepared for Return on Investment.

Koufax rookies are among the hottest cards in the hobby today. Demand is outpacing supply on a consistent basis and the market has reacted. Prices at auction continue to escalate provided the condition is at the highest level. And at a PSA 8, there aren’t many examples that exceed this magnificent offering. In fact, 15 PSA 8.5’s are known, to go with 22 PSA 9’s and 3 GEM MINT 10’s.

For the discerning collector or the profit-driven investor, this card should be an automatic. The Koufax rookie card’s climb has been as remarkable as Koufax pitching at Dodger Stadium on a hot summer day. We expect the day to come very soon, when Koufax rookies at PSA 8 will be selling well in excess of $200,000 and perhaps as $250,000. If you’ve ever contemplated a Clemente rookie, we strongly encourage you investigate this card.

I wonder how many green Cobbs these guys had

[mechanicalman]

I was shocked to see that coming from him, honestly.

Funny you mention Goodwin. I was just looking at his last auction and recalled the Ohtani card that sold for $184k. There appear to be limitless amounts of dumb money in modern; isn’t it plausible some of that could trickle into pre-war?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Funny you mention Goodwin. I was just looking at his last auction and recalled the Ohtani card that sold for $184k. There appear to be limitless amounts of dumb money in modern; isn’t it plausible some of that could trickle into pre-war?

I don't necessarily believe everything I see.

[MichelaiTorres83]

Funny you mention Goodwin. I was just looking at his last auction and recalled the Ohtani card that sold for $184k. There appear to be limitless amounts of dumb money in modern; isn’t it plausible some of that could trickle into pre-war?

I would love to hear from one person that has spent more than 100 thousand dollars on a card made in this century. Has anyone ever met someone or know someone who has done it?

[mechanicalman]

I don't necessarily believe everything I see.

What are you saying, that you don’t believe someone paid that much for an Ohtani? Who knows? Maybe it didn’t. But it did according to Bill Goodwin’s website. He has a fine reputation, right, so it must be legit?

[mechanicalman]

I would love to hear from one person that has spent more than 100 thousand dollars on a card made in this century. Has anyone ever met someone or know someone who has done it?

Oddly enough, I went to elementary school with Vegas Dave who paid $400k for some Mike Trout superrefractor thingy. We are not even acquaintances, by the way.

[calvindog]

look at the bid history. doubt it gets paid for, but it will look nice on VCP

You mean that every bid back to about $4000 is from a bidder who bids with PWCC either 100% or 97% of the time? Yeah, I don't think this one requires much thinking.

[Peter_Spaeth]

To quote one of the great American songs, "It ain't necessarily so."

[Peter_Spaeth]

What are you saying, that you don’t believe someone paid that much for an Ohtani? Who knows? Maybe it didn’t. But it did according to Bill Goodwin’s website. He has a fine reputation, right, so it must be legit?

You tell me.

7/31/16 eBay Image memorylaneinc n***n Best Offer $20,000.00
7/17/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions 4***4 18 $23,100.00
7/10/16 eBay Image probstein123 s***e 25 $25,205.00
7/7/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions s***l 52 $27,100.00
6/30/16 Goodwin Image 20 $80,625.60
6/12/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions a***t 33 $22,100.00
6/6/16 eBay Image dpingree i***r BIN $32,450.00
5/26/16 eBay Image smallstocks 9***8 BIN $20,000.00
5/23/16 eBay Image jrengstl 9***8 BIN $27,495.00
5/14/16 Heritage Image 20 $19,120.00

[MichelaiTorres83]

Oddly enough, I went to elementary school with Vegas Dave who paid $400k for some Mike Trout superrefractor thingy. We are not even acquaintances, by the way.

How does one validate the card was paid for?

Curious to hear someone say they bid that much and paid for it. Surely there must be someone here mixed into the masses.

[rats60]

You tell me.

7/31/16 eBay Image memorylaneinc n***n Best Offer $20,000.00
7/17/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions 4***4 18 $23,100.00
7/10/16 eBay Image probstein123 s***e 25 $25,205.00
7/7/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions s***l 52 $27,100.00
6/30/16 Goodwin Image 20 $80,625.60
6/12/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions a***t 33 $22,100.00
6/6/16 eBay Image dpingree i***r BIN $32,450.00
5/26/16 eBay Image smallstocks 9***8 BIN $20,000.00
5/23/16 eBay Image jrengstl 9***8 BIN $27,495.00
5/14/16 Heritage Image 20 $19,120.00

The card was bid up and not paid for. That wasn't the only AH that this was done to.

[AddieJoss]

These T206 HOFs are not “rare” in the sense there are very few that exist. What is happening though is that they are showing up for sale much less frequently. That is driving up prices as many are buying and stashing in Thier collections. So when a card that one wants does show up in the grade desired, folks are paying up instead of waiting a long time for another to appear.
Cory Weiser

[3-2-count]

Another big price last night in Memory Lane for a superior looking mid grade Matty portrait. $6,290.00 after the juice.

This same card sold in April of this year for $3,295.00. :eek:

http://photos.imageevent.com/threetwocount/threetwocount/websize/mlmatty.jpg

[Throttlesteer]

Another big price last night in Memory Lane for a superior looking mid grade Matty portrait. $6,290.00 after the juice.

This same card sold in April of this year for $3,295.00. :eek:

http://photos.imageevent.com/threetwocount/threetwocount/websize/mlmatty.jpg

It's a nice card, but not THAT amazing for the grade. At some point, things are going to have to settle down a bit. This isnt sustainable

[Peter_Spaeth]

Come on now, everybody panic like it's 2016. :)

[Touch'EmAll]

Hard to believe the 4.5 grade, looks a solid 5 at least. Chance of a surface imperfection, wrinkle, or other.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Come on now, everybody panic like it's 2016. :)

That's the problem, nobody panicked until it was too late in 2016. Glad people are questioning things this time!

[ashes13]

time will tell if these prices are sustainable, but when you put the prices in perspective to what modern autographed rookie cards sell for (thousands of dollars), HOF mid grade t206 cards still look moderately priced. I think there are a number of collectors moving into the t206 market from other areas such as post war and modern and that is helping with demand. While these arent rare, supply is fairly limited in eye appealing grades 5 and above and there is enough money out there to push prices up. I think the prices have been too low for too long on a lot of the marquee HOF from the t206 set.

[Peter_Spaeth]

time will tell if these prices are sustainable, but when you put the prices in perspective to what modern autographed rookie cards sell for (thousands of dollars), HOF mid grade t206 cards still look moderately priced. I think there are a number of collectors moving into the t206 market from other areas such as post war and modern and that is helping with demand. While these arent rare, supply is fairly limited in eye appealing grades 5 and above and there is enough money out there to push prices up. I think the prices have been too low for too long on a lot of the marquee HOF from the t206 set.

Apples to oranges. The high end rookie card market is, IMO, driven by a lot of speculators and flippers.

[Rhotchkiss]

Last night a number of T206's again went for crazy numbers - the Matty Portrait, a few Cobbs, the HR Baker and the Waddell Portrait, etc.

The fact that these cards -- week after week, auction after auction -- keep going for crazy prices, and its not just limited to Cobb, Young, Wajo, Matty, leads me to conclude that these prices are becoming the new normal for good looking T206s. In my opinion, what is happening is too wide/broad for it to be a few people manipulating a few cards. It seems that T206 has caught fire and people are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the cards they want.

I do not understand who/why someone would pay 2-3 times what a relatively-common example previously sold for publicly, but people are doing it. They are spending that money with PWCC, Heritage, REA, and yes, Memory Lane, who I thought had a great auction last night and obtained some pretty crazy prices.

And its not just limited to T206s. I am guilty myself of paying (way) up for non-T206 Cobb, Wagner, Plank and Jackson items, and I recently paid 3x more for a 1916 Zeenut Claxton than what it last sold for in 2012. Note, however, that these tended to be rare(er) cards that do not come up often at all, not the more common T206s that are going for crazy prices.

Seems that the market for the high-end and/or rare versions of blue chip HOF cards is being reset. Seems this is the new normal, not just for T206. Seems card collecting is moving evermore into the realm of investment and away from being a hobby.

[MichelaiTorres83]

I fit into the category of buying mid grade cobb, matthewson, johnson and young. I am working on a set on the side.

I have duplicates and am still buying. With what I have, I plan on holding for 15 to 20 years before selling.

I think prices go up and down. I hope to come out ahead on the long haul. I was fortunate enough to pick up higher grade vesions before the explosion.

[rats60]

Rotchkiss, agree 100%. I was the crazy guy in high school and college collecting baseball cards in the 70s. Getting packages from Larry Fritsch or Card Collectors Co. However, the prices today have me thinking investment first. I don't see how anyone except the richest people can get very deep in the hobby without considering an investment.

[Sean]

Last night a number of T206's again went for crazy numbers - the Matty Portrait, a few Cobbs, the HR Baker and the Waddell Portrait, etc.

The fact that these cards -- week after week, auction after auction -- keep going for crazy prices, and its not just limited to Cobb, Young, Wajo, Matty, leads me to conclude that these prices are becoming the new normal for good looking T206s. In my opinion, what is happening is too wide/broad for it to be a few people manipulating a few cards. It seems that T206 has caught fire and people are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the cards they want.

I do not understand who/why someone would pay 2-3 times what a relatively-common example previously sold for publicly, but people are doing it. They are spending that money with PWCC, Heritage, REA, and yes, Memory Lane, who I thought had a great auction last night and obtained some pretty crazy prices.


I went after a Southern Leaguer, Helm, in PSA 6. The highest VCP sale was $880, last year. The card went for $2,100. :eek:

[benjulmag]

Back in the good old days (the 1960's), before the present insanity of paying exponentially more for a card that more neatly fits within a grading company's subjective opinion of desirability, T206's could be purchased for $1 from the Card Collector's Company. And the price was independent of player. I remember requesting that I be sent a card with no creases, and if I received such a card that by today's standards grade vg-ex, I would feel I hit the jackpot. THOSE ARE NICE LOOKING CARDS FOR THE ISSUE!

So the question to me is not why someone would pay $10k for an aesthetically pleasing T206 Young graded a 5, but why one would pay multiples of that for the card in an 8. And that doesn't even go into the question of what was done to the card to make it an 8.

[bounce]

Seems that the market for the high-end and/or rare versions of blue chip HOF cards is being reset. Seems this is the new normal, not just for T206. Seems card collecting is moving evermore into the realm of investment and away from being a hobby.

NOOOOOooooooo! Not you, too, Hotchkiss?!?!?!

Was bidding on a Lajoie Portrait PSA 4 last night, I'm sure many people saw it. Ended at $1,325. Prior sale to that was REA at $1,600.

This was a $600 card earlier this year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

With all the talk of "Investment", do we really believe that all of a sudden, and it has been pretty much all of the sudden in the last handful of months, that there's a new group of "investors" with seemingly endless bankrolls that are happily forking over double/triple the prior sales prices for equivalent (and in many cases THE EXACT SAME) cards?

Kind of like the Lajoie, I guess we all just had it wrong for years and all of sudden they've got it right? They either put in ZERO price research (highly unlikely), or they just don't care (totally unlikely).

This has all the signs of 2016 again. That run up wasn't just the blue chip 50s/60s RCs either, it went well beyond that.

I would simply encourage everyone to be very careful right now.

I've spent my entire career in and around real commodity markets - energy, ags and softs, interest rates, currencies - the behavior going on right now is NOT NORMAL, and the overwhelming majority of these cards are NOT RARE ENOUGH to explain the size of the changes we're seeing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

NOOOOOooooooo! Not you, too, Hotchkiss?!?!?!

Was bidding on a Lajoie Portrait PSA 4 last night, I'm sure many people saw it. Ended at $1,325. Prior sale to that was REA at $1,600.

This was a $600 card earlier this year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

With all the talk of "Investment", do we really believe that all of a sudden, and it has been pretty much all of the sudden in the last handful of months, that there's a new group of "investors" with seemingly endless bankrolls that are happily forking over double/triple the prior sales prices for equivalent (and in many cases THE EXACT SAME) cards?

Kind of like the Lajoie, I guess we all just had it wrong for years and all of sudden they've got it right? They either put in ZERO price research (highly unlikely), or they just don't care (totally unlikely).

This has all the signs of 2016 again. That run up wasn't just the blue chip 50s/60s RCs either, it went well beyond that.

I would simply encourage everyone to be very careful right now.

I've spent my entire career in and around real commodity markets - energy, ags and softs, interest rates, currencies - the behavior going on right now is NOT NORMAL, and the overwhelming majority of these cards are NOT RARE ENOUGH to explain the size of the changes we're seeing.

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

[Leon]

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

[griffon512]

i have a healthy amount of skepticism, but i'm moving towards ryan's perspective on t206 iconic hof cards with strong eye appeal.

i'll put my money where my mouth is for those that are much more skeptical about recent prices than i. i'm game to buy any strong eye appeal (my discretion) mid-grade t206 portraits of iconic hofers (mathewson, johnson, cobb, young) at vcp prices going back a "reasonable" amount of time (can't cherry-pick select pwcc/memory lane sales in the last week). send me a pm if interested. i don't know if this comment belongs in this section because it is feedback to other posts but also a solicitation to buy.

[SAllen2556]

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

But do you need to control the whole market or just win a couple of high profile auctions? If you win an REA or PWCC auction more people notice don't they? And thus aren't those prices are seen as more legitimate?

But on the other hand, I just read an article about young people collecting bottles of bourbon and classic cars. Is the entire art and collectibles market doing well because of low interest rates?

[Rhotchkiss]

David, I agree 100% that what is going on right now is not normal, but i do not think its devious manipulation -- its just too broad in my opinion, and its happening outside of T206 too. Things are stupid expensive, but that's where the "market" has gone, on its own. It will correct (I think/hope). But when it does, the new normal will likely be higher floor values from the old normal.

[Peter_Spaeth]

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

[barrysloate]

From my own experience as an auctioneer, I occasionally saw new collectors with deep pockets enter the hobby with a "kid in a candy store approach". They tried to buy everything at once, and often burned themselves out very quickly. So if a few of them have recently entered the T206 market, that could easily skew prices.

And of course there is nothing nefarious at all about it, just a bunch of wealthy people trying to amass an instant collection. Of course, I have no idea if this is the case, but it could be one explanation for rapidly escalating prices. A few of them could be competing against each other.

[benjulmag]

From my own experience as an auctioneer, I occasionally saw new collectors with deep pockets enter the hobby with a "kid in a candy store approach". They tried to buy everything at once, and often burned themselves out very quickly. So if a few of them have recently entered the T206 market, that could easily skew prices.

And of course there is nothing nefarious at all about it, just a bunch of wealthy people trying to amass an instant collection. Of course, I have no idea if this is the case, but it could be one explanation for rapidly escalating prices. A few of them could be competing against each other.

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

[ls7plus]

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

+1. The best examples of significant cards such as the Young are most likely in what the coin world would refer to as "strong hands,' meaning their are few enough of them that they are not coming out anytime soon until the money is right, as it was for this one. In a slightly different context, key, rare but off-grade cards are soaring too--apparently $13,500 for a SGC 1.5 poor to fair 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb in a November, 2018 auction. That was music to my ears, since I bought a PSA 5 example of that rare rookie for $4,000 in 2011, and also acquired a 1907 Wolverine News Cobb Portrait 3-4 years ago for what would probably be a fourth to a fifth of its' current value.

For those who weren't around in the early to mid '90's when I began looking for the 1925 Exhibits Gehrig rookie, they were largely nowhere to be found, until finally I happened upon a VG example at the '98 National. What had occurred was that the people that had them knew there weren't very many and how significant they were. Few were therefore willing to sell until prices soared into what these collectors believed the card's proper value was. As prices did begin to rise to these levels, more came out. I believe exactly the same thing is happening with the '39 R303A Ted Williams rookie. There aren't that many around, and virtually all of them are in "strong hands," with those that have them realizing the immense significance of the rookie card of what is the first or second best hitter of all time (depending upon your up-to-date sabermetric measuring stick). These collectors don't need the money at recent price levels, know they have a far better looking and tremendously scarcer Ted rookie than the '39 Playball, and won't be parting with them anytime soon at anything like "current" book values. IMHO, as one who predicted the rise of the rarer Cobb rookie post cards, you'll see more of the R303A rookie come out when VG or even G examples are in the $7500+ range, and even more when they hit $10,000+. Look for the far rarer '39 V351 to soar far higher.

The sale of the Young card fits into the above analysis due to its' great centering and tremendously clean appearance--regardless of technical grade, I don't believe there are that many to match it.

Plus, the newer card market is out of whack with the vintage market. Either the former is due to have a precipitous fall, the latter a substantial climb, or a combination of both.

Just my thoughts and best wishes to all.

Larry

[mechanicalman]

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

Sam, perhaps that was the wrong word, but then again it's never been that hard to find midgrade centered examples, has it? Why all of a sudden when these same cards, well centered, have been selling at much lower levels for years?

Again, we're talking about rapid and dramatic price increases, not a gradual rise over time.

[barrysloate]

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.

[benjulmag]

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.


Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

Corey, from my perspective cards that are strong for the grade have been selling for a premium for many years. Nothing new there.

[Touch'EmAll]

Whatever the reason for big price increase, ok, nice and fine by me, puts a smile on my face when I see the auction results. We should be happy our investments, er, collections are rising in value. Heckuva lot better than the market tanking, that's for sure. Nobody has a crystal ball, and I hope if/when a market correction downward happens it still ends higher than the old floor level. If no market correction downward, so much the better! Fingers crossed all that other cool pre-war major HOR'er stuff gets a little trickle down. Go Baseball cards !

[benjulmag]

Corey, from my perspective cards that are strong for the grade have been selling for a premium for many years. Nothing new there.

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

I guess time will tell, but as far as your explanation, I see no reason that mindset would suddenly start to prevail in December 2018, when all the same considerations have been in play for many years.

Personally I am not looking to buy any of these, I have what I want, and I'm always happy to see my cards nominally go up in value, but from a detached perspective I just don't understand the meteoric price rise.

[barrysloate]

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.

But that's nothing new, the prices are.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.

Yes, again, nothing new there at all.

[Snapolit1]

Yes, again, nothing new there at all.

Well, if the same advice is going to be given out for 20 years the prices re going to go up. Like real estate. If it's a great place to buy in 1990 and 2000 and 2017, the prices will go up because it's always smart to pay more than the last guy.

[ls7plus]

Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.

Hi, Pete! And as the hobby continues to grow (REA had something like bids from 20-some different countries in their spring auction?), and the AVAILABLE SUPPLY of the more highly desirable cards continues to shrink as they are taken up and stashed away at ever-increasing price levels, it will continue to do so with regard to vintage cards. The supply part of the demand and supply equation as it effects value is not, of course, the total supply in existance, but that part of it that is available within reasonable time parameters at any given price level. Which is why the in "strong hands" part of the supply factor makes so much difference.

However, I haven't seen (although I don't closely monitor it) the significant falling off of the newer card market which must, virtually inevitably, occur (after all, these cards will all become "vintage" at some point in time). It will happen, as it did in the early to mid-'90's new card market, because the two are not independent, but are in fact linked. Today's current star will inevitably become yesterday's hero, and to compete pricewise, their actual stature, as well as the supply of their cards, will have to match up with the vintage players we value so highly to sustain even the current prices. Which is why, as you know, I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on PSA 10 '93 SP Jeters priced at $76K+ or one of 50 Mike Trout refractor rookies graded 8.5 at $35K. Sorry, new card guys, but it has to happen!

As I've also stated, however, this hobby is meant to be enjoyed. As long as it is doing that for you, more power to you regardless of your preferences,

Sincerely,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hear you Larry but from what I have seen the "float" has always been relatively low compared to the overall supply, just the nature of the hobby, most good cards at any given time are in the hands of collectors not looking to sell them.

[Vintageclout]

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

Well said....spot on accurate!

[RiceBondsMntna2Young]

...
PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)
...

I'm only on page 9 of the thread, so maybe this point has been raised already but is it really that outrageous that bids would be double what they were 3 years ago for some of these cards? I collect Barry Bonds and his 86 Tiffany have more than doubled in that time. 2016 marked the end of the trough for those cards, a trough that began in 2008, the last time the stock market overheated.

http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af130/ricebondsmntna2young/Screen%20Shot%202018-12-17%20at%206.54.58%20PM_zpsm0t78978.png

[rats60]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but maybe those guys who have been telling us to invest in the stock market and not cards are tired of taking a beating in the market this year and have decided to invest in top tier t206 Hofers.

[ls7plus]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but maybe those guys who have been telling us to invest in the stock market and not cards are tired of taking a beating in the market this year and have decided to invest in top tier t206 Hofers.

Could very well be--indeed, could very well be. Hard assets (traditionally but not limited to gold) have often been viewed that way during stock market downturns. Often times, though, in our hobby, they find they like what they obtain and stick around as real collectors!

Best wishes,

Larry

[benjulmag]

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.


+1


To Larry's point about limited supply due to collectors keeping the cards, I believe that is at play too. So you combine the increased demand with a more limited supply, one doesn't need to be an economist to predict what that will do to price.

To Peter's point about why now is this happening when these forces have been around for years, what might be different now, which Barry's post alludes to, is investment advisors have entered the fray and are steering people toward no-brainer-can't lose baseball cards (which if that doesn't apply to a nice looking card of the all-time win leader who has an award named after him in arguably the most storied set of all time that contains the famous Wagner card, that term has no meaning). There is a lot of money looking for a place to be invested, and unlike commodities, a product that offers one no satisfaction in ownership (how many people take pleasure in looking at their soybeans), investing in aesthetically pleasing vintage baseball cards of players that everybody has heard of offers the card owner the additional intangible return of satisfaction of ownership.

As Peter correctly says, time will tell if this is just a passing phenomena, but my belief is that it is not and as long as the 8 prices hold, these new 5 prices of NICE LOOKING 5's, as exemplified by the $10k Young, are here to stay.

[ullmandds]

I have a habit of listening to Bloomberg radio more often than I should and they have a recurring commercial that comes on almost every 20 to 30 minutes extolling the virtues of investing in Fine 19th century antique furniture...When I start hearing advertisements suggesting people invest in fine, well centered T206 cards then maybe i’ts time to exit the hobby!!

[Rhotchkiss]

Pete, let me know if you are exiting “the hobby”- I am sure we can cut a deal on a number of your cards!;)

[barrysloate]

I have a habit of listening to Bloomberg radio more often than I should and they have a recurring commercial that comes on almost every 20 to 30 minutes extolling the virtues of investing in Fine 19th century antique furniture...When I start hearing advertisements suggesting people invest in fine, well centered T206 cards then maybe i’ts time to exit the hobby!!

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

[Leon]

Longtime book collectors are in somewhat the same pickle, as you well know. Not all collectibles stay in favor but my guess is that baseball cards hold on for a lot longer. (at least until we are dust :))

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

[ullmandds]

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

Exactly Barry...leon... so when we start hearing commercials on the radio it’s already too late!

[barrysloate]

Longtime book collectors are in somewhat the same pickle, as you well know. Not all collectibles stay in favor but my guess is that baseball cards hold on for a lot longer. (at least until we are dust :))

Agreed that baseball cards probably have more staying power than other collectibles, but they are not impervious to market forces. Our hobby is almost entirely demand driven, so that demand could easily wane sometime in the future. I'm not making any predictions, I have no idea what the future holds, but it would be foolish to think this stuff can only go up.

[Leon]

I agree. And had anyone heavily invested/collected caramel cards 10-15 yrs ago they would be upside down now (for the most part).
Agreed that baseball cards probably have more staying power than other collectibles, but they are not impervious to market forces. Our hobby is almost entirely demand driven, so that demand could easily wane sometime in the future. I'm not making any predictions, I have no idea what the future holds, but it would be foolish to think this stuff can only go up.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

To Larry's point about limited supply due to collectors keeping the cards, I believe that is at play too. So you combine the increased demand with a more limited supply, one doesn't need to be an economist to predict what that will do to price.



If more collectors are keeping their cards how come there are more auction houses than ever, ebay sales of prewar are brisk and there are other outlets (facebook etc.) that also sell tons of pre-war cards?

[ullmandds]

If more collectors are keeping their cards how come there are more auction houses than ever, ebay sales of prewar are brisk and there are other outlets (facebook etc.) that also sell tons of pre-war cards?

I think the reality is that more people are flipping cards today than ever before

[Peter_Spaeth]

The explanations I have heard could account for a gradual price rise over time, but not, in my mind, for a sudden meteoric one. People didn't just wake up one night of a PWCC auction to the investment possibilities of nice mid grade T206s, IMO.

[Millerd33]

I think the reality is that more people are flipping cards today than ever before

This is a fact. Especially noticeable on facebook razz groups. (raffle groups where you buy a spot for a chance to win a card)

I see countless cards sell on ebay for more than a straight sale could bring normally and put up in these groups for 20% more and they sell quickly.

This is one of the reasons (besides the legality issue of such raffles) that we do not allow them in our pre war fb group.

[frankbmd]

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

Is this the furniture BST section?

I have a fine antique square table suitable for playing cards, sorting cards or playing tabletop baseball sim games. It was crafted in 1830 and is made of real wood, not particle board. Photos available upon request. Serious offers only. If you are in need of firewood, kindly do not respond.;)

[ullmandds]

This is a fact. Especially noticeable on facebook razz groups. (raffle groups where you buy a spot for a chance to win a card)

I see countless cards sell on ebay for more than a straight sale could bring normally and put up in these groups for 20% more and they sell quickly.

This is one of the reasons (besides the legality issue of such raffles) that we do not allow them in our pre war fb group.

And this is a similar mentality I saw on many stock message boards leading up to the recent crash...people getting in because it seemed like a sure thing...so easy to buy because everything just keeps going up...and look where we are now. not to say this will happen to most caards...just citing a similar example.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bitcoin!!

[benjulmag]

The explanations I have heard could account for a gradual price rise over time, but not, in my mind, for a sudden meteoric one. People didn't just wake up one night of a PWCC auction to the investment possibilities of nice mid grade T206s, IMO.


Peter, is this sudden meteoric rise the sale of one PSA 5 T206 Young, or are you referring to a number of comparable transactions? If the former, maybe the explanation is the simplest -- two collectors were chasing that card, had a lot of money, really liked it, and didn't want to wait for another comparable 5 to come along. I'm not saying this is the explanation, only that there is limited information one can derive from a single transaction.

That said, because IMO the price makes sense based on the prices of 8's combined with logical explanations of supply and demand, even though the increase might have happened more quickly than what one is accustomed to seeing, I am hesitant to describe the forces at play anything other than prudent assessment of value. If though the meteoric rise takes the price to a level that seems totally whacked out compared to prices of 8's (e.g., $50k), then I would have more cause to suspect something other than ordinary market forces at play.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Corey this thread was a response to maybe 3 or 4 seemingly way out of line prices in a recent PWCC auction, not any trend.

[barrysloate]

Is this the furniture BST section?

I have a fine antique square table suitable for playing cards, sorting cards or playing tabletop baseball sim games. It was crafted in 1830 and is made of real wood, not particle board. Photos available upon request. Serious offers only. If you are in need of firewood, kindly do not respond.;)

I have a beautiful 1890's oak roll top desk. I bought it in 1988 for $2200, and I was lucky to get it. Back then there were a hundred antique stores in my neighborhood (there are maybe two left), and I had to get on a lot of waiting lists and be really aggressive to land it. It was my holy grail, and I still use it today. I imagined how much it would be worth as the years passed.

Well it's thirty years later, and I'm thinking of selling it. Anyone care to bail me out at cost? How about a discount below my cost? How about I throw in the cost of your rental van if you are willing to come and pick it up?

That is the state of the antique roll top desk market.

[Sean]

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

I've heard the same thing about model trains. They were really hot when I was young (so I'm told), but today there is almost no interest in them. Collectors can't come close to getting their money back when they sell.

[barrysloate]

I've heard the same thing about model trains. They were really hot when I was young (so I'm told), but today there almost no interest in them. Collectors can't come close to getting their money back when they sell.

I don't believe the new generation cares at all about antiques. Why spend a lot of money on an antique when you can go to Ikea and buy something brand new for a whole lot less? That's why I am a little bearish on the long time future of the baseball card hobby. Current collectors are still avid buyers and will probably remain so. But the next generation, I'm not so sure. Time will tell.

[tmw2ward]

Interesting point about the future of collecting...I wonder what the average age of a collector on net 54 is? I'm 40, would be cool to see someone put up a poll...

[Rhotchkiss]

+1. Whoever is savy enough to do it, how about a poll asking how old people on the board are. I am 44.

[ullmandds]

Ask archive this was done recently

[ullmandds]

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=195152&highlight=poll+age

[Rhotchkiss]

Thanks Pete. I revived the thread, which is from 2014, so it’s “old man recently” :), to which I can totally relate.

It’s good/comforting to see that the vast majority of the collectors (in 2014) range from 30’s to 50’s. That means we likely have at least another 20-30 years of interest before baseball cards are given up for Fortnite skins and Xbox games by the youngins of today

[ullmandds]

Thanks Pete. I revived the thread, which is from 2014, so it’s “old man recently” :), to which I can totally relate.

It’s good/comforting to see that the vast majority of the collectors (in 2014) range from 30’s to 50’s. That means we likely have at least another 20-30 years of interest before baseball cards are given up for Fortnite skins and Xbox games by the youngins of today

haha...feels like yesterday!

[Sean]

Thanks Pete. I revived the thread, which is from 2014, so it’s “old man recently” :), to which I can totally relate.

It’s good/comforting to see that the vast majority of the collectors (in 2014) range from 30’s to 50’s. That means we likely have at least another 20-30 years of interest before baseball cards are given up for Fortnite skins and Xbox games by the youngins of today

Well, I learned something new today: "old man recently."

[Rhotchkiss]

Sean, as I get older, two years ago feels like yesterday, and 10 years ago feels like 2 months ago. Sucks getting older. The worst was when 80's bands started showing up on "Classic Rock" stations.

[tmw2ward]

Thanks Pete!