View Full Version : Does stock market volatility play a role in your hobby budget
It's been a bull run of a market for years now. How would a really down market affect your hobby budget?
Buy more? Buy less? Doesn't matter?
Klrdds
02-08-2018, 07:44 PM
The market has never affected my hobby buying.
Brian Van Horn
02-08-2018, 07:44 PM
Nope.
bbcard1
02-08-2018, 07:49 PM
My card buying habits are largely dictated by my income. My income is largely dictated by how my business is going. That's dependent on the economy at large and my work/skill/luck. The stock market is only a part of the economy. The last stock market downturn was the residue of problems in the economy, not the cause of them. I think this is a true correction.
Jason
02-08-2018, 07:53 PM
No it doesnt influence my collecting in the least. Hopefully things will get better for all affected.
calvindog
02-08-2018, 08:01 PM
The recent losses just knocked out gains of the past nine weeks of a nine year bull market. I suspect people will survive.
joshuanip
02-08-2018, 08:01 PM
Yes for me but only because I work in finance. I had a high bid on a card in a current auction and was just outbid literally right now. If we didn’t have this market vol I would have probably upped my bid. But in light of how the market may impact me and my bids in upcoming auctions, I’m bowing out from the card.
The fact that there was 10 coming of this (find) type in the mile high auction and the current bid also had to do with it. Just let it go......
BearBailey
02-08-2018, 08:02 PM
No impact.
No impact on my collecting budget.
ronniehatesjazz
02-08-2018, 08:08 PM
Very small collector but I’m technically a stockbroker/advisor and pullbacks have no effect on my budget (as meager as it is).
Bigshot69
02-08-2018, 08:25 PM
It’s always important to have a balanced portfolio. 10% cash 10% bonds 20% stocks 30% cards & 30% comics :cool:
It’s also important to dollar cost average, which is why i contribute the same amount to my DraftKings account every week.
pokerplyr80
02-08-2018, 08:28 PM
If nvidia keeps doing well it could increase my card budget temporarily when I decide to sell. For the most part it doesn't change it much one way or the other.
silvor
02-08-2018, 08:42 PM
I've been working in the financial planning business for 25 years. I think, and there's some evidence to back this up, when the market is up, people FEEL "rich" so that affects their buying habits.
During the dot com boom, spending outpaced wages, but people saw their 401k balances - which you really can't get to easily - and spent like mad.
joshuanip
02-08-2018, 08:45 PM
It’s always important to have a balanced portfolio. 10% cash 10% bonds 20% stocks 30% cards & 30% comics :cool:
It’s also important to dollar cost average, which is why i contribute the same amount to my DraftKings account every week.
That’s what I call an uncorrelated low beta idiosyncratic portfolio. Haha
darwinbulldog
02-08-2018, 10:07 PM
I don't think so. Certainly not in any substantial way.
Stampsfan
02-08-2018, 11:18 PM
Not really. I separate church and state.
Now, renovating my house and upgrading my kitchen has somewhat hampered my buying temptations.
KMayUSA6060
02-09-2018, 07:04 AM
Of course the market affects my spending budget. Until one or two of the stocks in my portfolio make like Amazon/Google and take off, I'm going to be stuck working for a living, thus limiting my card budget. ;)
If nvidia keeps doing well it could increase my card budget temporarily when I decide to sell. For the most part it doesn't change it much one way or the other.
VERY nice pre-market pop this morning for you. Gotta love tech stocks.
I think on 4 figure and less cards the stock market doesn't have much of an affect. I am certain it can (and does) on many 5 figure cards and higher. Each person is their own financial situation though and I am sure some high rollers might not have their decision affected.
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ullmandds
02-09-2018, 11:21 AM
Psychologically...I am less likely to buy when the market is in the pooper...like now.
Rhotchkiss
02-09-2018, 12:11 PM
I have not owned a single stock or tradeable security in years. So the market has zero affect on my card-buying. Interest rates, however, that's another story....
MR RAREBACK
02-09-2018, 04:42 PM
I still buy , but try to get a better deal
obcbobd
02-09-2018, 05:29 PM
No, but I'm not spending big $$ anyways
Johnny630
02-09-2018, 07:14 PM
I only buy high end cards during a recession.
smtjoy
02-10-2018, 11:26 AM
In 2007-08 when the financial crisis was in full swing and the stock market was down big, I decided to double my card budget. I had a secure job and just felt there were a lot of great deals to be had. One of the smartest decisions I have ever made.
I dont think we have seen that kind of drop right now (in the stock market and cards) but if stocks continue to decline we may be there again.
Gobucsmagic74
02-10-2018, 11:30 AM
In 2007-08 when the financial crisis was in full swing and the stock market was down big, I decided to double my card budget. I had a secure job and just felt there were a lot of great deals to be had. One of the smartest decisions I have ever made.
I dont think we have seen that kind of drop right now (in the stock market and cards) but if stocks continue to decline we may be there again.
That's about when I started collecting again, and almost exclusively vintage. Good thing too, I'd never be able to afford most of the cards in my collection if I was trying to buy them now.
joshuanip
02-10-2018, 12:45 PM
I only buy high end cards during a recession.
As a collector who hibernated through 2 cycles, there definitely cyclicality in the card market. As the stock market. And the stock market will continue to increase over the cycles. As the card market.
As a collector who hibernated through 2 cycles, there definitely cyclicality in the card market. As the stock market. And the stock market will continue to increase over the cycles. As the card market.
I think mid-year, common Topps, in vg and lesser condition, are not going to cycle up too much in the future. They are fun but their trajectory isn't likely going to be upward. That is my prediction. Otherwise, I agree that things go up and down. Approximately a dozen or more years ago, E cards (in general) were a few times more expensive than they are now. They could go up in the future but my best guess is only the best cards go up. How many people are starting low to mid grade sets of e cards or t cards right now? Probably not tons. But I do think the best looking cards, and most in demand, will go up in the future, at least in the vintage space... but who knows...Collect what ya' like.
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packs
02-13-2018, 02:41 PM
What's the stock market? Are they cool cards?
Franklin-Basil
02-13-2018, 10:26 PM
best time to buy is when the shite is hitting the fan or when people are distracted by the things they get distracted by
especially when there is illiquidity in the resale mkt when compared to bids and asks all day long
there's always someone who needs money now
Slinger
02-13-2018, 10:32 PM
What's the stock market? Are they cool cards?
Priceless :D
best time to buy is when the shite is hitting the fan or when people are distracted by the things they get distracted by
especially when there is illiquidity in the resale mkt when compared to bids and asks all day long
there's always someone who needs money now
The only problem with this is when the shite hits the fan my pile of shite is smaller, so I have less to spend. I do agree about some liquidity in the card market as great cards can be sold rather quickly.
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CurtisFlood
02-14-2018, 01:26 PM
Zero, zip, nada.
JeremyW
02-14-2018, 02:48 PM
The stock market has no effect on my collecting.
packs
02-14-2018, 03:02 PM
I guess I just don't see the correlation. What does one thing have to do with the other? More money in the market doesn't translate to more cash on hand unless you're willing to pay an avalanche of fees to buy a Mickey Mantle card. Less money in the market wouldn't affect your cash on hand either. Most investments are long term so a bad month or a bad year shouldn't cause anyone to panic unless an investor is playing the market like some kind of lotto, which I think is a terrible way to invest.
I guess I just don't see the correlation. What does one thing have to do with the other? More money in the market doesn't translate to more cash on hand unless you're willing to pay an avalanche of fees to buy a Mickey Mantle card. Less money in the market wouldn't affect your cash on hand either. Most investments are long term so a bad month or a bad year shouldn't cause anyone to panic unless an investor is playing the market like some kind of lotto, which I think is a terrible way to invest.
You definitely have a point. But when the market is down it is psychological more than anything to many people. It is for me anyway. I just hope it's up when Heritage is ending as I will feel better about making a purchase, if I so desire. It doesn't make sense but what can I say?
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MattyC
02-16-2018, 07:35 AM
No, stock market has no impact on my buying.
joshuanip
02-16-2018, 07:43 AM
I don’t think the stock market has any direct impact but there is correlation with each other to multiple variables, namely employment and monetary liquidity.
Employment is obvious; impacts both demand and supply curves. And monetary liquidity is like blowing air in a balloon, with the balloon being all asset classes including sports cards.
So if the market goes down sure it doesn’t impact the individual, but we are all slaves to the alter of price momentum and price momentum is impacted by the stock market, if not directly then indirectly.
I don’t think the stock market has any direct impact but there is correlation with each other to multiple variables, namely employment and monetary liquidity.
Employment is obvious; impacts both demand and supply curves. And monetary liquidity is like blowing air in a balloon, with the balloon being all asset classes including sports cards.
So if the market goes down sure it doesn’t impact the individual, but we are all slaves to the alter of price momentum and price momentum is impacted by the stock market, if not directly then indirectly.
Unless you know each bidders mindset then that is not correct. How can you say it doesn't impact it if I say I am a bidder and it affects my bidding? I would like some help understanding that.
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joshuanip
02-16-2018, 07:58 AM
Im speaking generally. Of course there are people that are directly impacted, definitely including myself. But majority of people either don’t invest in stocks or don’t put two and two together that they are through their 401ks.
That’s why there are so many responses that it doesn’t impact them. I may be wrong but that is my assumption. What I’m also saying in a round about way is that the stock market impacts everyone directly or indirectly through correlation of variables.
Poor English on my part to start my previous post negatively affirming it has no impact, I was speaking as a whole
Im speaking generally. Of course there are people that are directly impacted, definitely including myself. But majority of people either don’t invest in stocks or don’t put two and two together that they are through their 401ks.
That’s why there are so many responses that it doesn’t impact them. I may be wrong but that is my assumption. What I’m also saying in a round about way is that the stock market impacts everyone directly or indirectly through correlation of variables.
Poor English on my part to start my previous post negatively affirming it has no impact, I was speaking as a whole
kewl. I don't think you have poor English at all. I think you were over-explaining a little bit. I agree with your observations.
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midwaylandscaping
02-17-2018, 04:07 PM
Nah, I'm small time. From 1987 Crash to now, my collecting years, it never mattered
joshuanip
02-18-2018, 05:55 PM
For what it’s worth
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidseideman/2018/02/15/how-the-dows-dip-affects-the-baseball-card-market/#559e1b8c5c10
Exhibitman
02-19-2018, 12:27 PM
There's an indirect effect on the 'hot' cards of the day and on very expensive cards. It doesn't take many buyers sitting out the auctions to lower the results on marquee stuff. Though I am guessing that some of the pullback on mega-priced postwar stuff is a result of the collapse of the shilling ring that was working over the postwar market through PWCC and other outlets. But we needn't get into that again :eek:
One thing I noticed during the downturn was that collectors who are into lower grade and inexpensive stuff didn't pull back the way others did. Every show I attended had plenty of action at the cheap card tables and dollar boxes while expensive stuff sat. Turns out collectors don't lose the bug even if things look bad, they just channel it into cheaper endeavors.
joshuanip
02-19-2018, 01:10 PM
[QUOTE=Exhibitman;1749422]There's an indirect effect on the 'hot' cards of the day and on very expensive cards. It doesn't take many buyers sitting out the auctions to lower the results on marquee stuff. Though I am guessing that some of the pullback on mega-priced postwar stuff is a result of the collapse of the shilling ring that was working over the postwar market through PWCC and other outlets. But we needn't get into that again :eek:
One thing I noticed during the downturn was that collectors who are into lower grade and inexpensive stuff didn't pull back the way others did. Every show I attended had plenty of action at the cheap card tables and dollar boxes while expensive stuff sat. Turns out collectors don't lose the bug even if things look bad, they just channel it into cheaper endeavors.[/QUOTE
I believe all prices will soften to some degree, but the most valuable, rarest eye candy will generally hold it value above the rest of the “junk” rally. And when the cycle goes up, I feel they will be the best to rebound. If you needed money which would you sell your prized PC Cards or your lower grade extras. And when you are out of extras, which would you sell, iconic cards or Your post war stuff that has 10x or 100x the population size of your favorites?
Exhibitman
02-20-2018, 07:52 AM
I wasn't talking about value, I was talking about liquidity. When things went to crap and my practice went down briefly with it (try having an entire month worth of gross revenue suddenly become uncollectible because so many clients were real estate related and went bust overnight) I had to sell cards to make my monthly nut. I found that the lower grade stuff moved consistently while the high grade stuff sat. Fine if you are a collector who doesn't need to sell specific items, not so much if you need to turn over inventory to pay the bills. As a collector, sure, I am gonna try to sell the junk and readily replaced stuff first; I have been doing just that to fund my kid's college and med school needs.