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View Full Version : Existing Population Guess on Raw T206s, etc.


clydepepper
09-18-2017, 09:04 AM
Obviously, once the manufacturing and printing process became more modernized, the supply of Baseball Card quickly far exceed the market need.

We know that there are millions and millions of Mike Trout cards and probably hundreds of thousands - at least - of stars since 1980, but did you ever wonder how many of the older issues still exist?

I am, of course, referring to ungraded cards.

I can only imagine such speculation would be exactly that. No concrete way to prove or disprove.

I seriously doubt if a close guess could be made on how many were originally produced...let alone live to see 2017.

Anyone want to share their thoughts, if not their 'educated speculation'?

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T206Collector
09-18-2017, 09:27 AM
I have not seen a more well reasoned analysis than Scot Reader's Inside T206:

http://www.oldcardboard.com/t/t206/insidet206-centennial-edition.pdf

Pages 25 to 28 address circulation (up to 370,000,000) and survival (about 1.6M) figures.

clydepepper
09-18-2017, 09:51 AM
I have not seen a more well reasoned analysis than Scot Reader's Inside T206:

http://www.oldcardboard.com/t/t206/insidet206-centennial-edition.pdf

Pages 25 to 28 address circulation (up to 370,000,000) and survival (about 1.6M) figures.

WOW! That is awesome research! I should have realized that such an effort would have been made for 'The Monster'.

But, what about other pre-war issues, T205 & Goudeys, for example.

Then there's the Play Ball issues of WWII, which, me thinks, had to be a much, much smaller number.

Were there as many 1952 Topps cards produced (excluding what they infamously dumped in the Hudson River) as the afore-mentioned T206 cards?

I would be even more surprised if anyone has taken up the task of tracking total production numbers of these other issues...but, I would be equally fascinated if there were.


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Leon
09-20-2017, 04:09 PM
To quote Scot's great work...

"In any case, of the potentially hundreds of millions of specimens initially produced, it seems highly probable that the number of T206 cards in existence today is in the low single-digit millions, or a few thousand for a typical subject. This is quite possibly less than one percent of the original production, with the vast majority of these survivors being in lower grade. "



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