Money in the hobby

[rainier2004]

While sitting there Sunday night watching REA, it was just crazy watching the amount of money that was being spent left and right. I know that is relative, but prices on sooo many cards have just soared. How many $100,000 cards now exist? How many collections exceed $250,000 now? Billions of dollars in the "industry" as its coined on another thread.

So my question/point is this...

If money = fraudsters, and I would say this is true in all walks of life, isn't it just a matter of time before this whole thing collapses when the cockroaches are exposed? I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?

We also seem to have a different vibe to the "hobby" now than years ago. I hear the term investment so much now and it seemed like that word use to be taboo. So much new money in the vintage card game...

It seems to me like its a perfect storm with all this. So much money seems like the potential for fraud would escalate tremendously. It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards. I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

I know, collect what you like and don't spend more than you have, blah, blah blah. Its not about that, I don't need my cards to be able to retire or anything. But the whole thing makes me somewhat uncomfortable and I started collecting in 1985.

[bbcard1]

I don't know about the term "investment" being used more. Honestly the whole overprinting thing was created by speculators. I remember "investing" in a lot of 800 Tommy Gregg rookies in 1988 and tons of others. I was fortunate to have also been picking up vintage. I don't think the bubble will burst on the cards most folks are investing in like they did on the cards of the 80s and 90s because the supply really isn't there. Of course virtually everyone isn't collecting any more.

I think there are some cards that sell for big dollars that have thin markets...I remember someone saying years ago that the market for cards from the late 1800s was very profitable but only a few people were playing. It may be more so now.

[T206Collector]

Third party authenticating is a fluid concept. You now see people talking about old vs. new PSA slabs, REA had multiple autograph authenticators, with Steve Grad now at Beckett, and James Spence on his own, and SGC it's own brand. I don't know off the top of my head who is at PSA/DNA anymore. To think in 10 years that all of this will be status quo is obviously not a bet anyone would make. So if you are "investing" in a baseball card with the expectation of that status quo, you should just be eyes wide open about this stuff:

Your goods are only as valuable as the market credibility of the authenticator at the time of sale.

I do think this is one reason why REA double-certified a lot of its autographs. Take this signed T206 Marquard, which was encapsulated as authentic by SGC.

http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=44742

Note how they didn't just rely on SGC's word. They also provided an Auction LOA from James Spence/JSA, and pre-certification by Steve Grad and Brian Sobrero/Beckett Authentication.
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[GasHouseGang]

I was thinking the same thing Todd. Everyone was "investing" in the 1980's. It was kind of like the housing bubble, everyone thought things would just keep going up forever. The card market seems to ebb and flow over the years, and some cards are up while others are down, so it makes it a very difficult market to invest in unless you really know what you are doing.

[rainier2004]

Alright, I see the 80s thing. Buying 500 Bo Jackson rookies, yeah, I could have worded that differently. So my post would be in strict regards to pre war cards.

[58pinson]

I am not financially equipped to chase pricey vintage cards but also shake my head at some of the prices these auctions realize. Then again when I tool up and down the Garden State Parkway in my Ford and get passed by literally hundreds of automobiles priced at $100k or so I say different people like to do different things with their cash - so be it.

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

[1952boyntoncollector]

I am not financially equipped to chase pricey vintage cards but also shake my head at some of the prices these auctions realize. Then again when I tool up and down the Garden State Parkway in my Ford and get passed by literally hundreds of automobiles priced at $100k or so I say different people like to do different things with their cash - so be it.

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

What happens when they counterfeit money as well. The one thing going on cards from 100+ years ago is the paper stock i assume will be tough but I am not a professional so who knows..

[jlehma13]

I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?


Whenever I see one of these crisp cards graded an authentic, I can't help but think how it was trimmed to deceive and how many others like it made it past the graders. Beaters are the best.

[T205 GB]

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

I believe that the technology is already available and has probably been used already. You have guys that can rebuild cards and make it seamless. Guys that can doctor colors and have them be flawless also. So what is stopping them from creating one? Could easily do a common in high grade since the big guys would be scrutinized.

[drcy]

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

I addressed that concern in a SABR post (https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2017/01/26/assorted-authenticity-notes-thoughts-and-tips/):

My guess is a lot of entombed high grade cards have been altered, or 'prepped,' but that's a different issue.

[JustinD]

While sitting there Sunday night watching REA, it was just crazy watching the amount of money that was being spent left and right. I know that is relative, but prices on sooo many cards have just soared. How many $100,000 cards now exist? How many collections exceed $250,000 now? Billions of dollars in the "industry" as its coined on another thread.

So my question/point is this...

If money = fraudsters, and I would say this is true in all walks of life, isn't it just a matter of time before this whole thing collapses when the cockroaches are exposed? I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?

We also seem to have a different vibe to the "hobby" now than years ago. I hear the term investment so much now and it seemed like that word use to be taboo. So much new money in the vintage card game...

It seems to me like its a perfect storm with all this. So much money seems like the potential for fraud would escalate tremendously. It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards. I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

I know, collect what you like and don't spend more than you have, blah, blah blah. Its not about that, I don't need my cards to be able to retire or anything. But the whole thing makes me somewhat uncomfortable and I started collecting in 1985.

The only answer I have to this is yes.

The term "investment" to me is still taboo and a house of cards...but that's my opinion. I would like big dollar cards, but even if I felt that was budgetary I would stay away in this market. It reminds me too much of when I steadfastly refused to buy a home in 2004. Eventually there is no room for growth as the demand is outpaced by cost and the buyers are shut out.

I think a select group are grabbing the big cards now anticipating further growth but this is in my belief a very finite crowd. If those (on the high estimate for me) 20 or 30 big buyers stop trying to swap or horde among themselves what happens to the growth?

[rainier2004]

What happens when they counterfeit money as well. The one thing going on cards from 100+ years ago is the paper stock i assume will be tough but I am not a professional so who knows..

That's what I thought too, but it is far from the truth. Restorers can take fibers, analyze them and get the identical compounds that were originally used in the card stock and just make "new" stock and do whatever they want to with it. Micro-weave of these "parts" are also possible so creating a new card would seem kinda easy...

[ecRich]

I think "outside" money is pushing the prices to influence rising prices. A few million bucks spread here and there is nothing. Probably like shooting fish in a barrel, where many of us (not me) view the last record price as actual value. Bottom line is we are adults paying big money for cardboard produced for children. It use to be you were embarrassed to tell adult friends you collected baseball cards. Now we can say we invest in cards which makes us feel grown up.
I collect and still have fun doing it. Sooner or later most collectors will be gone leaving "money" guys passing cards back and forth.

[Republicaninmass]

Or the signed beckett 40 PB wagner which JSA wouldn't pass

[sbfinley]

This is a pure guess from my experience the high priced vintage market (say items that sell for $25k+) have a handful of different buyers chasing them.

*Those with the means to accumulate anything they want at any price.
*Those that overextend themselves financially for their hobby.
*Those that move from one item to another, buying and selling as a break even throughout the years.
*Those that bought in so early 30-40 years ago they can now move their items to mold their collection in what ever shape they want.
*Those that accumulate then minimize. Building quantity and moving for quality in a repeated process.

[drcy]

That's what I thought too, but it is far from the truth. Restorers can take fibers, analyze them and get the identical compounds that were originally used in the card stock and just make "new" stock and do whatever they want to with it. Micro-weave of these "parts" are also possible so creating a new card would seem kinda easy...

No.

If you wanted, you could radiometric date a baseball card. The most commonly known form of radiometric dating is carbon dating, but they test different chemicals to detect items from different time periods. For example, they do lead dating for paintings. They have confirmed the date of famous paintings (Vermeers, Rembrandts, etc) and identified forgeries by lead dating the paint. Radiometric dating is based on the known half-life of chemicals and is explained in the following article: (The Science of Forgery Detection (http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/science-forgery-detection-black-light-x-rays/)).

But, it's all much easier than that. At the printing level, it's virtually impossible to counterfeit a known baseball card that both looks good at the naked eye level and at the microscopic level. And, further, there are microscopy tests that identify when cards were made from the same printing plate-- so a card that wasn't made from the original printing plate would be easily identified.

I think many of those who are worried about future undetectable counterfeits are applying Doctor Who theories to the real world.

[rainier2004]

No.

If you wanted, you could radiometric date a baseball card. The most commonly known form of radiometric dating is carbon dating, but they test different chemicals to detect items from different time periods. For example, they do lead dating for paintings. They have confirmed the date of famous paintings (Vermeers, Rembrandts, etc) and identified forgeries by lead dating the paint. Radiometric dating is based on the known half-life of chemicals and is explained in the following article: (The Science of Forgery Detection (http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/science-forgery-detection-black-light-x-rays/)).

But, it's all much easier than that. It's virtually impossible to counterfeit a known baseball card that looks good at the naked eye level and at the microscopic level. And, further, there are microscopy tests that identify when cards were made from the same printing plate-- so a card that wasn't made from the original printing plate would be easily identified.

Ok,, maybe I got a little a head of myself as reproducing those micro printing marks would be pretty tough and art restorers wouldn't be able to replicate that as part of their job description. But the same compounds are available today as were 100 years ago, they would still be able to reproduce the stock.

Where is the printing plate material located?

[wondo]

Ok,, maybe I got a little a head of myself as reproducing those micro printing marks would be pretty tough and art restorers wouldn't be able to replicate that as part of their job description. But the same compounds are available today as were 100 years ago, they would still be able to reproduce the stock.

Where is the printing plate material located?

My belief is that even though detection technology is readily available, it is not economically sensible for most pieces. In other words, I'm not gonna spend $1000 to verify a $500 card. At some point it would, but that market is likely very small. BTW, I, of course, used up made up numbers for the example. I have no idea what the costs would be, but you get the idea.

[drcy]

Counterfeits are easy to identify, because not only to they have to use the original printing technology, but there are tens and tens of things and details they have to exactly duplicate. A forgery of a brand new (made up/fantasy) item could be different, because it doesn't have to perfectly match anything and there's no original for direct comparison.

The future perfect counterfeit of a T206 Wagner or Plank is of no concern to me, because I don't think it can happen. When I think of a hard to identify as fake future forgery, it would be of something like an '1800s' ad poster or trade card, where they forger used the original lithography techniques to make it.

But, beyond that they usually look bad to the seasoned collector, i can say that 99.9% of counterfeits, reprints and forgeries of Pre-WWI cards and baseball memorabilia are definitely identified because they are printed with the wrong (modern) printing.

[wondo]

Counterfeits are easy to identify, because not only to they have to use the original printing technology, but there are tens and tens of things they have to exactly duplicate. A forgery of a brand new (made up/fantasy) item could be different, because it doesn't have to perfectly match anything and there's no original for direct comparison.

This reminds me of how we like conspiracy theories or CSI super technical explanations. In fact, simple, straightforward anomalies are the easiest to detect. Thanks.

[drcy]

A lot of simple, easy to look for qualities helps identify counterfeits. For just one example, one of the hardest things to duplicate on a reprint or counterfeit is the original gloss.

[Bpm0014]

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

[darwinbulldog]

No doubt fraud follows money around, but I imagine most of the perception that these [NM-MT pre-war] cards just weren't around in the 70s and 80s is because people were looking at all of the cards that could fit on the tables in a hotel ballroom or the counter of a 500 square foot card shop as opposed to all of the cards that can fit on the internet. I'm sure it was different for some of you guys, but I think I saw maybe one T206 a year in the 80s, compared to hundreds of thousands of Topps, Donruss, and Fleer cards. Now I can easily view 1000 or more T206s every day. If 0.1% of them survived in NM or better condition into the 80s then I would probably have encountered none of them at that time (and I didn't) but would see them quite often now (and I do).

[drcy]

I can't think of a good analogy, but modern and antique printing technology are mutually exclusive, just as the words modern and antique are mutually exclusive.

You identify and date the printing technology by looking at the printing at the microscopic level, not the naked eye level. So a digital printing technology (say a laser printer) can make a great reproduction at the naked eye level, but is identified as modern printing under the microscope.

[Exhibitman]

"accumulate then minimize. Building quantity and moving for quality in a repeated process"

Steve, can I use that with my wife? It sounds so much better than "buying a lot of stuff I like"?

[nat]

While we're talking about authentication, here's something I've been wondering about:

Does PSA have the world's greatest type collection? You can check that a card's printing is period with a microscope, but to check to see if the card stock is right for a particular issue you'd need to compare it to an example that you know belongs to that set. So if you send them something from a super-obscure set, does the grader have access to a known-authentic example from that set that he can compare your card to?

[drcy]

For the conspiracy theorists, there was a Doctor Who episode where a time-travelling chameleonic alien went back in time as Leonardo da Vinci in order to make multiple Mona Lisas for the future.

[58pinson]

I addressed that concern in a SABR post (https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2017/01/26/assorted-authenticity-notes-thoughts-and-tips/):

My guess is a lot of entombed high grade cards have been altered, or 'prepped,' but that's a different issue.

Hopefully my first use of the quote function is correct.

I linked into your SABR article. Fascinating and obviously very informed. Light years ahead of my own level of expertise. I have no quibble with any of the points you made. I was, however, drawn to your use of the non-linear concept in your opening. That is where my concern lies in the future regarding counterfeiting, in this case specifically sports cards, but in other areas as well.

While I don't refer to the current technological advances as exponential they are not linear. I don't think it's an unrealistic stretch to visualize a time in the near future when the WTF moment hits and the cat is out of the bag as far as the sudden ineffectiveness of traditional counter fraud measures.

Pleasure to read your article.

[glchen]

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

As others have said, the printing technologies are different now. Back then, they used lithographic printing techniques and now it's more laser printing. Therefore, under magnification, you can see the print dots are different. A counterfeiter would need to bring back lithographic printing which is much easier said than done. In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge. Both of these things put together make it extremely hard to counterfeit prewar cards, which is why I doubt there are virtually any that are out there. In addition, many of the veterans of the hobby do not slab their cards, and keep their collection raw. Therefore, they are used to feeling the texture of paper stock and the look of the ink, they'd catch most fakes quickly. I think people see the Black Swamp or Lucky 7 find, and they are concerned about loads of fake prewar cards being reprinted, and I just don't think that is happening.

It's much easier for counterfeiters to focus on the old style TPG slabs and flips which are much simpler to replicate. Then you could put a fake card inside one of those slabs or an altered or overgraded genuine card.

And of course, restoring, altering, trimmed cards are a problem in the hobby. I don't doubt that. However, I don't see the absolute population of the cards increasing due to counterfeiting techniques.

About the comment that in the 70s/80s, these cards just weren't seen, I think a lot of that is due to the internet now. Back then, you had no idea what was out there, and now you can just go to ebay and google the card, and you can see many instances of it immediately. Folks are more likely now to know what they have and not throw it out since they can quickly check the internet and know it is actually worth $$$$. Also with all of the auctions always going on, it may seem like there is a Ruth rookie on auction all of the time. However, the total population is still only around 100-200, which is really not a lot when you consider there are over 300 million people in the US, and even if it's only the 1%'ers that can afford these cards, that's still a lot more people than cards out there.

Anyway, I'm not saying the card market can't collapse, because it definitely can even for rare prewar cards. You can look at some of the card prices from 2007/08, and there are still some cards that have not returned to those prices that they sold back then. However, if the overall card market does collapse, I think it'd more be due to macroeconomic effects of the economy such as if we go into another strong recession as opposed to a TPG like PSA going under. Because even if the slab is now worthless, people still want the card inside it.

A couple of caveats: I make no comment on high grade cards or vintage/modern cards which have populations in the thousands or much higher. I also can't understand the current market prices there at all, so can't say where those will go.

[barrysloate]

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

[irishdenny]

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

I have Always Referred to David's Knowledge of Ink Processing & Photography. His explanation of radiometric & carbon dating is sound teaching.
And even if it were possible ta somehow get by or around this major issue,
You still have the Papar Problem!

Ovar the Years From What I have found, We Simply Don't Know How the Papar was produced.
To think that someone in todays techno world could easily figure this out is Truly an immense project.
And iN Reality... No one would spend the Time, Effort & Money ta do So!
Only to Come uP Short of Victory!!!

I have looked at and discuss the material that is comprised within T206's, E90-1's & T205's wit a friend of mine(Who's Family own's one of the Largest Printin Co.'s in New York, His Great Grand Father start'd the Co. RiGHT Around 1901), And wit All His Knowledge, antique museum material, along wit his family past antique equipment, The whole bunch of'em are Clueless to how the papar was process'd/made!

Sure there are those wit well educated theory's...
Howevar, has Anyone replicated their theory inta a product & proved it can be done?

Kinda like Buildin a Viking longship or even replicatin their steel...
The World's Best have tried and fail'd!

LookiN at the Side view of a T206, under a 50x optic can be Truly FasinatiN...
If You havn't tried it as of yet, Giv'er a Go... :)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

Because the flip is the commodity, not the card. Flips sell, and nobody scrutinizes what's in the holder very much, at certain strata anyhow. I've seen cards posted here that I would bet my life are altered, but many just see the flip and ooh and aah.

"What we said of it, became a part of what it is." -- Wallace Stevens.

[ngnichols]

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.


All of the things you talk about involve human decisions/opinions. Take the human out of the equation and you won't have those issues. It's coming.........

[rainier2004]

Gary - This is what I propose and can be done:

In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge.

Why not just recreate the stock? Todays stock only glows b/c of its compounds. How hard would it be to recreate edges and corners? This is standard restoration in other fields. Its just accepted and disclosed.

My while point is this: with the ever increasing prices, we ill see ever increasing fraud and attempts to deceive. At what point do people just say enough is enough? The amounts of money are just rather large.

[glchen]

...
So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

Barry, I completely see what you are saying here, and I agree with a lot of it. However, there are a lot of different ways that I could answer this question. However, to focus on the cards that are going for 6 figures, I'll put it this way. The people who are buying these cards go to shows or events like the PSA luncheons and see other collectors like them, and they trust that other rich people like them (e.g., Ken Kendrick, etc) are buying cards, so they know that it's not just them in this market. When they sell their cards, they get paid real cash, real money with no restrictions like you can't sell for 2 years. They see the card prices going up based upon VCP, past auction sales, or other ways that are easily accessible. And which cards are going up the fastest? The ones with the highest number on the flips, which makes perfect sense to them because rich people collect the highest quality collectibles.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Gary - This is what I propose and can be done:

In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge.

Why not just recreate the stock? Todays stock only glows b/c of its compounds. How hard would it be to recreate edges and corners? This is standard restoration in other fields. Its just accepted and disclosed.

My while point is this: with the ever increasing prices, we ill see ever increasing fraud and attempts to deceive. At what point do people just say enough is enough? The amounts of money are just rather large.

Card doctoring has been rampant for the two decades since I got back into collecting. In my opinion, as witnessed by the continued strength of the market, not many people care.

[barrysloate]

Barry, I completely see what you are saying here, and I agree with a lot of it. However, there are a lot of different ways that I could answer this question. However, to focus on the cards that are going for 6 figures, I'll put it this way. The people who are buying these cards go to shows or events like the PSA luncheons and see other collectors like them, and they trust that other rich people like them (e.g., Ken Kendrick, etc) are buying cards, so they know that it's not just them in this market. When they sell their cards, they get paid real cash, real money with no restrictions like you can't sell for 2 years. They see the card prices going up based upon VCP, past auction sales, or other ways that are easily accessible. And which cards are going up the fastest? The ones with the highest number on the flips, which makes perfect sense to them because rich people collect the highest quality collectibles.

I understand herd mentality, and everyone assumes the card they buy will be just as desirable when it comes time to sell. But I still have trouble with how much faith is put on that label.

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

And Peter S. is correct that the label, and not the card, is the commodity (and I love Wallace Stevens).

[Peter_Spaeth]

For 10 points Barry name the poem, no cheating.

[ls7plus]

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

IMHO, Barry (and good to hear from you, by the way), a lot of these guys paying huge, enormous premiums for "9's" vs "8's" and "10's" vs "9's" are quite literally paying for the holder/flip inside. There simply is no way that the difference in the quality of the card can match the price differential, so what are they getting for their money? A holder with a piece of paper in it, for which they have paid tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars more than they would have for a beautiful card graded just one level lower. Far better to invest in something like the 1907 Seamless Steel Ty Cobb rookie Orlando Rodriguez of this board won in the REA auction ($24,000?), where both grading services have slabbed a total of four examples, and both Orly and I believe that that number is not going to increase much at all over the next few decades. Same with cards like the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth (11 total graded?), the Dietsche Fielding Pose and Wolverine News Cobb rookies, etc., etc.

I have studied the coin hobby extensively, as it has followed essentially the same path as that of cards, only with a 120 year head start. In that context, where there is a vast difference in the price of a coin, for example, in Mint State 67 vs Mint State 64 or 63, but little substantive difference of any real note between the quality of the two, and the item at issue is not all that rare, the values of the higher numerically graded items have tended to be cyclical, ebbing and flowing with the ingress and egress of investor types. On the other hand, truly rare and significant items tend to keep appreciating in virtually linear fashion (although those gaining the most in value over time among that group are those in better condition). And while on the subject, coins have also been the target of many counterfeiting attempts, with very little real success over the years. Items made through different methods always tend to leave different footprints, so I don't think we will be seeing a few hundred undetectable, newly manufactured Baltimore News Ruths in the next decade, century or even millenium! Same case scenario with Orly's Seamless Steel Cobb rookie (and presumably my own Wolverine Portrait and Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobbs).

Regards,

Larry

[drcy]

I understand herd mentality, and everyone assumes the card they buy will be just as desirable when it comes time to sell. But I still have trouble with how much faith is put on that label.

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

Some people put 100 percent certainty in something with 15 percent margin of error. But, really, their concern is financial value. The owner may be well aware of the margin of error in grading and the possibility of alterations, but all that matters is the financial value-- and if others invest in the label, then the label is what matters.

[glchen]

Barry, I don't disagree with you at all in regards to the flips, but for collectibles, people often defer to these so called experts in those fields even when buying extremely expensive things. When someone says that a wine receives a certain rating or the vintage that year was particularly excellent, do most of us have any idea what they are talking about? When some "expert" says this modern art painting is part of the new avant garde in the field right now and is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, do those people who buy those paintings really have any idea what they are buying? And many collectors may come from collecting coins, where these same issues have been rehashed over and over again. I'm not saying I agree with it but just trying to explain how we got here.

[GaryPassamonte]

Barry- the word "ego" comes to mind in all this. It's not aesthetics. It's not a love of baseball history. It's not rekindling childhood dreams. It's just "ego."

[Beastmode]

Counterfeits are easy to identify, because not only to they have to use the original printing technology, but there are tens and tens of things and details they have to exactly duplicate. A forgery of a brand new (made up/fantasy) item could be different, because it doesn't have to perfectly match anything and there's no original for direct comparison.

The future perfect counterfeit of a T206 Wagner or Plank is of no concern to me, because I don't think it can happen. When I think of a hard to identify as fake future forgery, it would be of something like an '1800s' ad poster or trade card, where they forger used the original lithography techniques to make it.

But, beyond that they usually look bad to the seasoned collector, i can say that 99.9% of counterfeits, reprints and forgeries of Pre-WWI cards and baseball memorabilia are definitely identified because they are printed with the wrong (modern) printing.

none of this matters unless TPG's want to find fakes. And based on some previous threads, it appears some TPG's are enabling forgeries. PSA can't even tell if a card has been chemically treated for gosh sakes. Let me clarify, PSA may not care that a card has been chemically treated; or counterfeited.

[Tennis13]

I have thought about this a lot. First, I think 1950s-1960s is exploding because a ton of baby boomers are aging and capturing their history. I am much younger but still get excited opening a 1986 Donruss pack and hitting a worthless Canseco. So in that scenario a rising tide lifts all boats.

Vintage: perhaps there is some foreign laundering going on? I learned a ton about Macau and getting onshore money offshore. Throw into that some other country money that needs to be parked and that could explain some of the rise in value.

That said, some of these auctions from late 2015/early 2016 prices look a little inflated. We will see, but if they are inflated and you pay 10% to 15% to launder money, that's ok, right?

You are seeing foreign money that needs a home in a ton of urban real estate markets on the high end. Why not baseball cards if they meet an ultimate need which may not be a collector need?

[ls7plus]

As others have said, the printing technologies are different now. Back then, they used lithographic printing techniques and now it's more laser printing. Therefore, under magnification, you can see the print dots are different. A counterfeiter would need to bring back lithographic printing which is much easier said than done. In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge. Both of these things put together make it extremely hard to counterfeit prewar cards, which is why I doubt there are virtually any that are out there. In addition, many of the veterans of the hobby do not slab their cards, and keep their collection raw. Therefore, they are used to feeling the texture of paper stock and the look of the ink, they'd catch most fakes quickly. I think people see the Black Swamp or Lucky 7 find, and they are concerned about loads of fake prewar cards being reprinted, and I just don't think that is happening.

It's much easier for counterfeiters to focus on the old style TPG slabs and flips which are much simpler to replicate. Then you could put a fake card inside one of those slabs or an altered or overgraded genuine card.

And of course, restoring, altering, trimmed cards are a problem in the hobby. I don't doubt that. However, I don't see the absolute population of the cards increasing due to counterfeiting techniques.

About the comment that in the 70s/80s, these cards just weren't seen, I think a lot of that is due to the internet now. Back then, you had no idea what was out there, and now you can just go to ebay and google the card, and you can see many instances of it immediately. Folks are more likely now to know what they have and not throw it out since they can quickly check the internet and know it is actually worth $$$$. Also with all of the auctions always going on, it may seem like there is a Ruth rookie on auction all of the time. However, the total population is still only around 100-200, which is really not a lot when you consider there are over 300 million people in the US, and even if it's only the 1%'ers that can afford these cards, that's still a lot more people than cards out there.

Anyway, I'm not saying the card market can't collapse, because it definitely can even for rare prewar cards. You can look at some of the card prices from 2007/08, and there are still some cards that have not returned to those prices that they sold back then. However, if the overall card market does collapse, I think it'd more be due to macroeconomic effects of the economy such as if we go into another strong recession as opposed to a TPG like PSA going under. Because even if the slab is now worthless, people still want the card inside it.

A couple of caveats: I make no comment on high grade cards or vintage/modern cards which have populations in the thousands or much higher. I also can't understand the current market prices there at all, so can't say where those will go.

Agree 100%. Ever increasing prices raised the same concerns in the coin market, and truly rare, significant items are still appreciating in value (check some of the better coin books issued in the last decade or less, giving real auction values for truly rare coins sold during that time period). The same has held true in cars, where there are many examples of rare and significant vehicles passing through the 7-figure "barrier" as if it was made of very soft butter! Don't believe it? How about a 1967 Corvette, selling for more than $3 million (1967 L-88 427 model; 20 made). A 1971 Hemi Cuda convertible for $2 million plus (11 or 12 in existence). 1962 Ferrari 250 GT's selling well into 8 figures. Very limited production Jaguar XKE lightweights, produced exclusively for racing (somewhere around 12 made, and selling for around $7 million, if memory serves correctly). Fakes have also frequently been attempted in both coins and cards, with little success. Q. David Bowers, an elite expert in the coin field, has been asked how high prices can go, and his answer has usually referred to what some works of art have sold and are selling for ($100 million plus). Perhaps not so unrealistic in the somewhat distant future even in the card hobby, when you consider that the 1903 E107 Mathewson in the REA auction, which went for $144,000, was a $900- $1000 item in 1995--thus increasing in value around 150 times in just over 20 years. Amazing, or just rare and significant to the extreme in an ever growing field?

Tremendously rising prices simply make some of us nervous (as well perhaps they should, as many will inevitably be priced out of the market for the best of the best items--learn to identify those which are yet undervalued now, as John J. Pittman did in coins, eventually putting together a $40 million collection, even though never able to afford the great rarities, or "trophy" coins!), but it's just hobby growth for the most part (pure speculator/"investor" types aside). I have an early to mid '90's REA auction catalog which is just several pages of newsprint in black and white on yellow stock (an insert to SCD, as I recall). Compare that to the most recent edition, with 700+ pages of the best glossy stock available. That, my fellow collectors, simply signifies growth, and growth on a very large scale. If that growth is largely attributable to true collectors who actually really like buying pieces of the history of the game, it will not only be sustainable but continue.

I guess you can see that I am most definitively not a "the sky is falling" type.

Highest regards,

Larry

[swarmee]

For what it's worth, the ones paying vast sums for the Mint and Gem Mint HOF rookies at least have PSA's insurance policy that will reimburse them if the card is found to a forgery or altered, presuming the card was truly graded by PSA and the slab is still intact (not fake flip/switched out card/fake holder).
Plus, if you really have a PSA 9 Aaron RC, are you going to remove it from the holder and send it in again raw? If not, it doesn't matter as the PSA flip is staying with the card. And if you for some reason think the card could become a 10, you're going to leave it with a min grade of 9, so PSA doesn't reconsider the grade they've already given it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Barry- the word "ego" comes to mind in all this. It's not aesthetics. It's not a love of baseball history. It's not rekindling childhood dreams. It's just "ego."

Gary, exactly. It can't be the cards, because the minute differences in the corners (even assuming the cards are actually graded accurately and consistently and that's a huge assumption) are not even visible to most eyes without a loupe.

[barrysloate]

For 10 points Barry name the poem, no cheating.

Is it "The Emperor of Ice Cream"? It's just a guess.

[oldjudge]

"when you consider that the 1903 E107 Mathewson in the REA auction, which went for $144,000, was a $900- $1000 item in 1995--thus increasing in value around 150 times in just over ....."

Larry-I'm not sure where you are getting your 1995 number from. In the mid-1990s I won a beat to hell Mathewson E107 in a David Festberg auction for $2000. When I got it I found that the condition was even worse than described and I called David to say I was returning it. His response? No problem--the under bidder was Larry Fritsch and he'll take it.

[steve B]

Ok,, maybe I got a little a head of myself as reproducing those micro printing marks would be pretty tough and art restorers wouldn't be able to replicate that as part of their job description. But the same compounds are available today as were 100 years ago, they would still be able to reproduce the stock.

Where is the printing plate material located?

Depending on the set, the "plate" would be the easy part. Lithographic stones are still available for art printers, and there are enough vintage ones out there that I wouldn't say they're hard to find.

Stuff produced after the change to aluminum might be marginally harder, but there isn't much difference between the 30's and 80's.


Steve B

[steve B]

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

The printers then did things in ways that are different than what is commonly done today. None of it is anything we can't do now. The problem is the fine details. And forging a truly perfect replica of a T206 would require some serious skill in a number of areas. While society has generally trended away from generalists to specialists, the skills even back then were specialized.

You'd need to -

Be an expert on the materials used in several areas, and be able to use modern equipment to identify exactly what you need to make.

Be an expert on paper and how it's made.
Be able to replicate on a small scale what was done on a large scale. (Papermill vs handmade paper. )
Create the paper pulp - same sort of fibers, same fiber lengths and quality.
Create the sizing-
Create the coating for the front.

The closest paper I've found is comic book backing boards, which are too thick, but will pass most ordinary examinations.
But that paper isn't really the same.

Next, be an expert on the inks.
Figure out from spectrographic analysis what the carrier/hardener was and what the pigments were.
Then obtain those.
Not as easy as it seems, some in 1910 were probably early synthetic dyes, which may not be made anymore.
So you need to be a chemist as well to recreate those.

Be an expert printer.
Litho stones, how to lay them out, then you need a vintage press....

Recreate the original art.
Pretty difficult.
You need an original to work from to get it exact.

And after all that, the dating will never show it up as old.

Could a card be made that would pass a cursory examination by someone who really knew cards? Yes. Could one be made undetectable? No.

The closest I've ever seen was shown to me in maybe 82-83. A very nice 51 Mantle. Nicer than any 51 Bowman I'd ever seen. The dealer I hung out at handed it to me and asked what I thought. No opinion expressed either way. After a few minutes maybe 5-10 I gave it back and said it was a wonderful fake but I couldn't explain why I knew it was fake other than it just seemed "wrong" . That was his opinion as well, and that of I think at least 5 other dealers.
Today I could probably figure out why it seemed wrong.


Steve B

[Peter_Spaeth]

Is it "The Emperor of Ice Cream"? It's just a guess.

Postcard from the Volcano

[barrysloate]

Don't know that one...now I have to spend the whole weekend reading Wallace Stevens. :)

[steve B]

I have Always Referred to David's Knowledge of Ink Processing & Photography. His explanation of radiometric & carbon dating is sound teaching.
And even if it were possible ta somehow get by or around this major issue,
You still have the Papar Problem!

Ovar the Years From What I have found, We Simply Don't Know How the Papar was produced.
To think that someone in todays techno world could easily figure this out is Truly an immense project.
And iN Reality... No one would spend the Time, Effort & Money ta do So!
Only to Come uP Short of Victory!!!

I have looked at and discuss the material that is comprised within T206's, E90-1's & T205's wit a friend of mine(Who's Family own's one of the Largest Printin Co.'s in New York, His Great Grand Father start'd the Co. RiGHT Around 1901), And wit All His Knowledge, antique museum material, along wit his family past antique equipment, The whole bunch of'em are Clueless to how the papar was process'd/made!

Sure there are those wit well educated theory's...
Howevar, has Anyone replicated their theory inta a product & proved it can be done?

Kinda like Buildin a Viking longship or even replicatin their steel...
The World's Best have tried and fail'd!

LookiN at the Side view of a T206, under a 50x optic can be Truly FasinatiN...
If You havn't tried it as of yet, Giv'er a Go... :)

Kind of messing up the timelines by responding as I go through the thread. Sorry, can't think of a better way.

Knowing people in the printing business where it's a place that goes back to 1901 is pretty cool.

But it goes right to what I said in another post.
They really KNOW printing. But they don't make paper, so it's a mystery.

The paper people know how the paper was made. Cranes has a small museum in Dalton that shows the process that came before machine made paper.
The machine process isn't much different than making paper by hand, except for how it's more precise, and done on a very large scale.
I'm sure a mill would make you whatever you wanted - IF you bought enough. I sort of don't want to know what a minimum run of special paper is. I've had special stuff made a couple times, and finding a place that will make say 500 lbs /a few hundred feet of a special size metal tube is difficult. And that's just a small redraw mill, not an actual tubing mill.

So duplicating it would mean replicating the process on a small scale that's typically done by a very large machine. (The one that makes our money paper- if my Jr High memory is correct- is about 200 Ft long if not more.)
That's really not easy.

Steve B

[Snapolit1]

Not trying to push any political buttons, but we are a country of immense wealth disparity. I spend a decent amount of time down the Jersey shore, in an area that was devastated by Hurricane Sandy. Every grandma and grandpa bungalow that was destroyed by the storm has been replaced by a mansion 5 times larger. With a pool in the backyard. And it isn't a station wagon in the driveway but 2 BMWs. My wife constantly says to me "are there really that many people with so much money." Yes, there are. At least within driving distance of Wall Street. Some of these people spend $50,000 on a watch. Some have wine cellars with a half a million dollars of wine. Some spend hundreds of thousands buying racehorses. To spend $300,000 on a baseball card thinking (a) its really cool and (b) it very likely will appreciate or at least hold its value doesn't seem like a crazy idea at all. If you can say this is a 1 of 1 or a 1 of 10 of anything, I think it's a fine investment -- if you are rich and diversified. I have no doubt that a good scandal would hit the industry hard. And then it would come back. The racing industry has a scandal every few months and rich people still spend $5 million or more on untested, unproved race horses.

It's not the Mantle cards of the Satchel Paiges or the Babe Ruths that have me scratching my head. But people spending $50,000 on an unopened pack. Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.

[botn]

I understand herd mentality, and everyone assumes the card they buy will be just as desirable when it comes time to sell. But I still have trouble with how much faith is put on that label.

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

And Peter S. is correct that the label, and not the card, is the commodity (and I love Wallace Stevens).

Hi Barry,

It may have been touched on but I think the people who are buying cards that cost in excess of 100K don't even notice a dip in the account balance after paying for that card and they have a belief that PSA is too big to fail.

Greg

[barrysloate]

Hi Greg,
I don't doubt that some people have so much money that a few hundred thousand won't make a dent, and I also see how there are those who will pay anything to get the best. That's the easy part of the equation. What I can't fathom is how something so imprecise, and so subjective, as grading is accepted with so much blind faith. I guess PSA has done a remarkable job of building their product. That's the best answer so far.

[obcbobd]

From previous posters I see where making a T206 counterfeit would be near impossible due to changes in printing and especially paper. What about more recent cards? 52 Mantle? Gretsky/Jordan/Rose rookies?

[Exhibitman]

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

Rich dudes comparing pee-pee's. Nothing new about that. Same as faster cars, bigger boats or trophy wives.

[Exhibitman]

Not trying to push any political buttons, but we are a country of immense wealth disparity. I spend a decent amount of time down the Jersey shore, in an area that was devastated by Hurricane Sandy. Every grandma and grandpa bungalow that was destroyed by the storm has been replaced by a mansion 5 times larger. With a pool in the backyard. And it isn't a station wagon in the driveway but 2 BMWs. My wife constantly says to me "are there really that many people with so much money." Yes, there are. At least within driving distance of Wall Street. Some of these people spend $50,000 on a watch. Some have wine cellars with a half a million dollars of wine. Some spend hundreds of thousands buying racehorses. To spend $300,000 on a baseball card thinking (a) its really cool and (b) it very likely will appreciate or at least hold its value doesn't seem like a crazy idea at all. If you can say this is a 1 of 1 or a 1 of 10 of anything, I think it's a fine investment -- if you are rich and diversified. I have no doubt that a good scandal would hit the industry hard. And then it would come back. The racing industry has a scandal every few months and rich people still spend $5 million or more on untested, unproved race horses.

It's not the Mantle cards of the Satchel Paiges or the Babe Ruths that have me scratching my head. But people spending $50,000 on an unopened pack. Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.

As to the first point, the last 30 years have been a great experiment in economics. When you cut taxes repeatedly and create other loopholes for the benefit of extremely wealthy people, they were supposed to put that money to productive use in business and grow everyone's wealth, but the reality is that they buy more toys instead. Supposedly high end cards (I say supposedly because there are so many really bad altered prewar cards in high end PSA holders) are just another rich boys' toy.

[rainier2004]

I do want to thank everyone who has contributed to this thread, there have been some very well though-out responses and posts that have been rather respectful and I have enjoyed this talk.

One final word on the reproduction of vintage paper...I don't know, I went to a restoration studio where CHUNKS of paintings and art that were created 200-300 years were missing. The art restorers created his own stock, filled in the voids and NOTHING glowed under a black light. To my untrained eye, it looked perfect...bb card stock can be reproduced w/o detection of tpgs.

This thread does need a card, this would be my favorite WaJo and no, its not mine.

[hangman62]

I thinking spending thousands of dollars on baseball cards is stupid thing to do

( and this coming from a long time passionate collector,who loves cards and the hobby)

I sometimes wish the whole baseball card business would go belly up/cards totally worthless/ bankrupt /useless

Then lets see whos left who really truly enjoys the " worthless cardboard photos" ..for what they are

[rats60]

As to the first point, the last 30 years have been a great experiment in economics. When you cut taxes repeatedly and create other loopholes for the benefit of extremely wealthy people, they were supposed to put that money to productive use in business and grow everyone's wealth, but the reality is that they buy more toys instead. Supposedly high end cards (I say supposedly because there are so many really bad altered prewar cards in high end PSA holders) are just another rich boys' toy.

No, they are wise investments. People are reinvesting their money to maintain and increase their financial position. It is no different than buying stocks, bonds, etc. If you don't think the average person is doing well, I would suggest you take a trip to Haiti or Afghanistan.

[obcbobd]

i sometimes wish the whole baseball card business would go belly up/cards totally worthless/ bankrupt /useless

then lets see whos left who really truly enjoys the " worthless cardboard photos" ..for what they are

yes!

[Snapolit1]

yes!

I don't understand that sentiment at all. If you enjoy collecting for whatever reason, why would other people's motives for what they are doing ruin it for you? Just do you own thing and be happy. Why would it irk you that certain high end cards that most of us aren't buying are soaring into the stratosphere. Just let it be. Everytime I go to to a Met game there are people sitting in $1000 seats. Whatever. I'm happy in a $100 seat. I'm happy wearing suits off the rack and some dudes will only wear custom made. Makes the world go round.

[MattyC]

I don't understand that sentiment at all. If you enjoy collecting for whatever reason, why would other people's motives for what they are doing ruin it for you? Just do you own thing and be happy. Why would it irk you that certain high end cards that most of us aren't buying are soaring into the stratosphere. Just let it be. Everytime I go to to a Met game there are people sitting in $1000 seats. Whatever. I'm happy in a $100 seat. I'm happy wearing suits off the rack and some dudes will only wear custom made. Makes the world go round.

Exactly. "Just do you own thing and be happy," well said. Seems like there's a lot of bile and general bitterness at money out there.

When I'm looking at my cards by myself or with my son or my brothers or cousins who collect, I'm loving collecting and the game of baseball and the specific cards I've found and chosen for their specific attributes— I'm certainly not wasting my energy thinking about what some other dudes are buying or why they're buying it or for how much, or what's overgraded, or some hypothetical scam. And yes, I'd bet many collectors would still love their cards just the same if they were suddenly worth nothing. If we didn't open packs and collect as kids for money, I don't see why we'd do so now, since a big part of collecting is to reconnect with one's youth and stay young inside.

[obcbobd]

Seems like there's a lot of bile and general bitterness at money out there.

a big part of collecting is to reconnect with one's youth and stay young inside.

No bile. No bitterness towards money, people who have it (and I have my share). But as you said collecting for me is a reconnection to my youth and that is to the cardboard itself, not the monetary value. So, if all my cards lose their value, I'm ok, means I can buy more :). They aren't investments. They're something much more innocent.

[botn]

Hi Greg,
I don't doubt that some people have so much money that a few hundred thousand won't make a dent, and I also see how there are those who will pay anything to get the best. That's the easy part of the equation. What I can't fathom is how something so imprecise, and so subjective, as grading is accepted with so much blind faith. I guess PSA has done a remarkable job of building their product. That's the best answer so far.

Safety in numbers I suppose, Barry. So much money has been invested in graded material and continues to be spent. I look at every card I buy, regardless of what it costs...maybe because I feel I have to and because I can. Not everyone buying cards has the expertise to determine if their card is graded right so it is easier to defer to the "experts". I know I do not approach much of anything in my life, that way.

[Rookiemonster]

I think it's very possible to be in to cards for money and the love of the hobby.
When I was a kid in the 90s I lived to see the up arrow in the Beckett on cards I owned. So of course I hated to see the dreaded down arrows. I had dreams of my cards going up up up and me cashing in.

I also had cards that I just liked because of the image or the player. Most of what I said rings true today. I love to see my cards increase in value and hate it when they go down.

Now of late I've been buying 80s and 90s inserts. ( trying to buy a home ) so I've been taking it easy and I don't really care about the value but I'm still only buying cards I think are undervalued or rare for the era even.

[Bicem]

This thread does need a card, this would be my favorite WaJo and no, its not mine.

Great choice in a thread relating to the incompetentcies of the grading companies!

[rainier2004]

Great choice in a thread relating to the incompetentcies of the grading companies!

heh heh heh...

[AGuinness]

Barry, I don't disagree with you at all in regards to the flips, but for collectibles, people often defer to these so called experts in those fields even when buying extremely expensive things.

And there are so many other third party experts out there involved in so many other areas of life. Buying a house, for instance, often includes multiple third party experts, such as realtors, assessors and inspectors. Many people consult the Kelley Blue Book (or similar publications) when buying a car. These type of experts, who help establish the condition and comparables of an item, are common in lots of places.

I do "get" the animosity towards TPGs, towards the money in the hobby, etc. but in the end, sports cards aren't just investments or tokens of our childhood or connections to the game, etc. Collecting cards (or whatever) is different things for different people, and perhaps many things for some, and that makes the hobby more nuanced and interesting, to me.

[irishdenny]

Kind of messing up the timelines by responding as I go through the thread. Sorry, can't think of a better way.

Knowing people in the printing business where it's a place that goes back to 1901 is pretty cool.

But it goes right to what I said in another post.
They really KNOW printing. But they don't make paper, so it's a mystery.

The paper people know how the paper was made. Cranes has a small museum in Dalton that shows the process that came before machine made paper.
The machine process isn't much different than making paper by hand, except for how it's more precise, and done on a very large scale.
I'm sure a mill would make you whatever you wanted - IF you bought enough. I sort of don't want to know what a minimum run of special paper is. I've had special stuff made a couple times, and finding a place that will make say 500 lbs /a few hundred feet of a special size metal tube is difficult. And that's just a small redraw mill, not an actual tubing mill.

So duplicating it would mean replicating the process on a small scale that's typically done by a very large machine. (The one that makes our money paper- if my Jr High memory is correct- is about 200 Ft long if not more.)
That's really not easy.

Steve B

Steve, Dankz fir the discussion!

I was of the Same Mind Set!
Until They, Which Included a Gentlemen Who's Family had made their Papar
fir just about the same amount of time educated me.
(I guess my implications were in my head but didn't translate well inta my writings, "My Apologies Sir!)

I was Schooled in the process...
And Then was Told THaT Sum of the Process & Materials are Known
Howevar, The Expertise through the lack of Experience has been Lost.

The "What ta Use" is Sum What Known..
But the How, How Much & When ta Process them is Gone!

They concluded with Reproducing the Card Stock
Fir T206's, E90-1's & T205's Would be a NiGHTMare...

I Realize that there are many More Knowledgeable People witin the Papar Industry out there (And I'm Certainly Not one of them!) Wit more optimistic attitudes about Reproducin These Specific Card Stocks...

I just want ta add that Lost Arts are everywhere witin the History of Man
And from what I've found out this seems like a logical "Lost Art" ~

I Do Like Bein Correct...
I Just Very Rarely am! :)

Unless it has t do wit Electronic Theory ;)

[kailes2872]

While I like the safety of the entombment of the card and the fact that the condition is locked forever (in theory - deterioration from chemicals as the possible exception), if I had my choice I would have them all raw so I could enjoy them in binders and look at them on a daily basis. As it stands, it take front/back photocopies of the graded cards - usually the high value superstars - with a label that shoes the grade, registration number and SMR and put it back in the binder

However, I have had too many circumstances where I have had a raw card talked down When I am selling - Ex becomes VG - and then pumped up When I am buying EX becomes NM. Of course, even with the standardization and commoditization of the flip/slab, most don't want to pay more than 70-75% of the VCP amount so I am not sure how far we have come.

Therefore, I buy graded cards primarily to protect my spouse/family in the case something happens to me. As that way there is a cost basis to work off of for the big stuff.

Based upon my budget/discretionary income, I buy mostly 6's and 7's. I'd love to have 8's but I can't justify the 4x price of a 6 for the incremental visual appeal over a strong 6. But to those who can - God bless and more power to you.

[dodgerfanjohn]

A similar thread came up on the psa forums a few years ago with a supposed "buying group" manipulated some elements of the market.

People kind of dismissed my answer, but the reality of what I'm going to say doesnt go away. Assuming a US population of 400 million, the top .1% of incomes is still...400,000 people. Make it the top .01% and thats still 40,000 people. At the levels of income that would involve, youd only need a handful of interested collectors chasing cards to support a market for the top level cards.

I am wondering if where one lives really influences their thinking on this. For instance in Los Angeles, Burbank Sportscards was heavily supported being near Toluca Lake...one of the wealthiest parts of the nation...as well as several other nearby neighborhoods that were favored parts of the entertainment industry. South Bay Sportscards in Lomita, CA charges outrageous prices. They are also right next to Rolling Hills and Palos Verdes, CA...neighborhoods with some very high incomes.

The number of people in LA with crazy money(say either $1million plus annual income, or $20 million plus liquid worth) might be 10x higher than many entire states. And NY, SF, Chicago, and maybe a few other big cities.

How many lottery winners, how many lotto level sports contracts, how many entertainment people, very successful investors and businessmen?

I can say with certainty that if I hit the lottery, my baseball card budget would blow from $1,000 a year or so to 25-100x that depending on how much money I had. And if I wanted a certain card or set that was rare, you can bet I'd be in there bidding it up.

Point being that the number of collectors out there with huge money...enough to the point that thousands or more are relatively meaningless...Is very likely a decent size number. And I think a lot of people in the hobby don't understand that. And those that do understand are tight lipped because their business depends on it.

[Exhibitman]

Good points John. I'd add that everything that goes into a nice lifestyle in Los Angeles has gotten out of hand due to the money sloshing around for playtime. Try going to a Dodgers game. Hundreds of dollars to sit on the field level anywhere near the plate. Or a concert. I just bought tickets to Green Day at the rose bowl. Nearly $200 for the back of the field. The lawn close to the stage was $450 a ticket.

As for my earlier comments on income disparity and tax policy, the response i got does not withstand scrutiny. An argument to averages is pointless because it weights the extremes. If you have a foot in a block of ice and a foot on fire then on average your feet are at a good temperature. The reality is that our economy has hollowed out to resemble a barbell with large extremes and an ever thinner middle. That's some third world banana republic stuff.

Oh, and cards aren't an investment. They are an illiquid asset with huge transactional costs at both entry and exit. If you want to bamboozle the wife with ROI talk to justify a trip to the National to hang out and party at the hotel bar I can totally respect that but don't expect me to buy into it. Maybe a Wagner is an investment but a vg T206 is a toy for boys. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I mean chicks dig guys who collect cards: look at all the women in the hotel bars in Chicago the first night of the National. So friendly. Gotta be the cards. Right?

[Yoda]

For me at least as a dealer/collector, where the rubber meets the road, is when I am offered what seems to be an obscene amount of money for one of my treasures I swore I would never sell. But then after agonizing, I would take the wampum and move on. It seems these days gold trumps cardboard.

[Dpeck100]

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

[Snapolit1]

Everywhere in life it's "the good old days this" and "the good old days that". People who sold their homes in my neighborhood 20 years ago because they thought it was the top of the market were wrong. Very wrong. Yet when you meet them they will give you 10 reasons why they are happy they got out when they did. They were dead wrong and want to justify it somehow in their own minds.

Anyone who doesn't think high end graded cards can be an investment must have slept through the recent REA auction. And what's so hard about selling high quality cards? I have a friend who extended himself a decade ago and bought a card for $3800. Just sold it for over $60K. Sounds like a decent investment. I agree that not every card can be viewed as an investment, and most of them probably aren't, but if you don't believe the good stuff will appreciate more in value your kidding yourself.

The one point that people here ignore over and over and over is that the same well heeled buyer can be both a lover of baseball cards and baseball and be an investor in cards at the same time. Why is that so hard to grasp? The dentist driving a Ferrari can love cars his whole life just as much as the guy who buys spare parts and works in his garage every weekend reconditioning an old Mustang. Not mutually exclusive.

[Leon]

Nice write up, David. I am not a graded or raw collector and generally buy mid grade cards with great eye appeal (to me). I agree with a lot of your thoughts. Unless you are Bill Gates someone is always going to have more money than you. Collections are the same way. Just do what makes you happy. I appreciate seeing others collections and great cards too. The diversity of the hobby makes it interesting AS WELL as the amount of money. Take the money out and it does become less interesting to most. That all said, if the time and card are right, there is nothing wrong with a pointy cornered card...It seems the money just keeps rolling into the hobby.

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

[rainier2004]

I did get into some stuff early, high grade isn't the only "investment" though. Truly rare or iconic items have done awfully well based on the same REA auction. But the fact of the matter is I have been priced out of some things, doesn't mean I am bitter though as I love the hobby. I would love to do a 1914 CJ set but that will never happen after the huge spike 3 or 4 years ago. Yes, ultimately I agree its all ego driven by definition, but there are some innocent factors as well like connecting to our childhood.

I guess I am just amazed...and there are definitely a ton of people with tons of cash.

[calvindog]

It's always the guys with no money telling the rest of us how dumb we are to spend big money on high grade cards. They have yet to figure out that no one listens to investment advice from guys with no money.

<a data-flickr-embed="true" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/calvindog/27043235601/in/album-72157607823551376/" title="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"><img src="https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7436/27043235601_da0fab9348_z.jpg" width="388" height="640" alt="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"></a><script async src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

[SMPEP]

Wow! Somebody sure did a nice job doctoring that card Jeff!

Cheers,
Patrick

[Dpeck100]

There is no doubt that there are cards out there that are so rare that the card in any condition can perform quite well. That said of those examples once again the higher you go up the grading scale the better the performance will be. Human behavior in many cases is very easy to predict and when it comes to things of value the higher up the food chain you go, they want collectibles that could impress others who share their level of wealth. For years on the CU board I have discussed the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in a PSA 10. I believe that if one comes available it is very likely to land in the hands of a non card collector. Someone with roots to the 1950's and 60's Yankees who has vast wealth and would love to showcase such a rare specimen in their 60th floor penthouse. Quite frankly the higher the price goes the more they will want it as the bragging rights associated with such a card only go up as the price does.

I continue to be puzzled by the notion that some suggest that cards aren't investments. You may not view your collection as an investment but in the real world anything that can be called a store of value is an investment. In 1985 when I began first purchasing cards Dwight Gooden was all of the rage. A pack of 1985 Topps was $0.35 and the goal as a kid was to buy a pack and get cards that were worth more than your $0.35. If you did your investment made money. If it didn't you lost and felt sorry for yourself and had to scrounge up some more funds to play the lottery again. All of the kids in my neighborhood couldn't wait for that months Beckett to come out and see if our collections were gaining value.

The card market is very much like the stock market. You have a huge number of choices and varying degrees of risk. On one hand you have long term winners that using history as a guide have done well over time all the way to registry cards that are more like penny stocks with some paying off but most going down overtime as the populations increase. The modern market would be considered very high risk but with that risk level, some will produce massive gains while most will fizzle out and be worth a fraction of their value in the future.

People buying cards that are $5,000 or perhaps $10,000 or higher are definitely in almost all cases concerned about the value. It may not be their primary motive for purchase but if one thinks that someone is interested in buying a card for that sum and watching it dwindle down to a few hundred bucks they are simply mistaken. The run that many cards have had since I got back into cards in 2009 is staggering. As the prices have risen it has given many more resources to use for other purchases and confidence in their ability to invest in the card market. The term investment shouldn't be considered a bad word when it comes to cards. It takes real resources to purchase them and unless ones funds are simply unlimited it isn't even rational to not want them to hold their price and hopefully increase.

I started sending cards to PSA in early 2010 and I have never participated in anything where the upside is so much greater than the downside. It is incredible that you can send cards to a grading company and simply pay a fee and instantaneously have the potential to wildly increase their value. There are countless collectors and dealers who have 100 baggers on cards. Find me a stock that you can buy and have this happen. I am in the stock business and trust me it is incredibly difficult to pick big winners but even more difficult to hold them and ride them for long periods because at some point you buckle and sell. The other feature that cards offer is they can't go to zero. Even players like Barry Bonds who was on the perennial cold list have seen their higher graded cards make a huge resurgence.

Combining fun, nostalgia, competition and investing in one hobby is incredible and one of the primary reasons that more people are entering the hobby and that people are willing to pony up larger sums to participate. It is true that most cards aren't what you would classify as safe investments but those making very strategic bets on marque pieces have done extremely well over time and that isn't going to change.

[MattyC]

In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades.

There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere.



Define "average" and "best." And furthermore, who gets to define what's best?

If you want to think it's PSA, which is essentially some card grader, that's certainly your choice and to be respected as such. And perhaps a good amount of the time an individual collector shopping for what he subjectively thinks is best will agree with what the grader said. Yet let's not lose sight of the fact that the grading rules were arbitrarily codified by the TPGs, and are also subjectively enforced. Personally, I think each collector gets to decide ultimately what's the best card with his own two eyes.

I've seen plenty of cards in "average" grade that, to my eye, blow away another card with a 9 or 10 sticker on it. Now you may say that the card with the 9 or 10 is "best" because it sells for more money, and that's cool if money is your judgement criteria— yet a collector looking for aesthetic beauty to their eye uses that as their criteria. So one guy's "best" might not be PSA's "best," or the next guy's "best." No one's right and no one's wrong. Let's just not sweepingly impose a definition of such a key term on everyone in the same hobby. We may all collect cards, but we may not all necessarily kowtow to what some grader says, and we may not use price realized upon sale as the key determinant of what is "best."

I also wouldn't equate owning a card in an "average" grade with being average, as you did above. Nor would I equate being the best with owning the card that sells for the most or has the highest sticker grade. For example, there are cards with '9' and '10' on the sticker that I can afford, yet I can honestly say if I choose them over another card in lower grade that looks better to my eye and costs me less to boot, I'd feel more like a fool than the "best."

[Dpeck100]

I have quite a few graded wrestling cards. One of the reasons I have so many is I appreciate eye appeal. That said I don't confuse reality. Higher grades go for higher prices. Matty you can certainly take credit for playing a major roll in collectors appreciating lower graded centered copies but at the end of the day the higher graded examples can climb the most.

[MattyC]

As someone who's seen lots of your collection, I always have loved how the cards you choose always match or exceed the grade. You also have tremendous passion for the cards, the athletes, and the sport.

And I certainly would agree with the higher grades appreciating the most in value, as well.

[Exhibitman]

What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.

And stay off my lawn!

[Peter_Spaeth]

What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.

And stay off my lawn!

Well said. All about $$$$. And all the BS that goes along with it, especially card doctoring, third party grading politics, auction fraud, etc.

[SMPEP]

What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.

And stay off my lawn!

+1

[botn]

Well said. All about $$$$. And all the BS that goes along with it, especially card doctoring, third party grading politics, auction fraud, etc.

Boy are you bitter!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Boy are you bitter!

Well, when I started to see 1952 Topps Wehmeier's selling for thousands of dollars just because someone stuck an 8 flip on them, I started to wonder, and not a lot has happened since then to give me confidence. Too many people buying centered 5s and 6s and turning them into 8s and 9s for my taste.

[AGuinness]

I TOTALLY get the view that money has corrupted a child's pastime and part of me will always feel this way as prices skyrocket and people are priced out of cards.

But the logical part of me also has to acknowledge that this is not exclusive to baseball cards. This happens elsewhere in other "innocent" pursuits, including toys (check out these realized prices on old Star Wars figures: http://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/2015/return-of-the-nigo-n09402.html), kids books (one of the first Harry Potter books sold for $37k: https://www.abebooks.com/books/rarebooks/most-valuable-childrens-books.shtml), video games (http://mentalfloss.com/article/66183/10-very-rare-and-very-expensive-video-games) and more.

The positive spin, which I prefer, is that baseball cards are treated as an investment because so many of us find them fascinating and wonderful, giving us an emotional lift and reminding us of those more innocent times and pursuits of our past. And in my opinion, I much prefer how baseball cards have evolved and the future of collecting versus video games, toys and books.

And I hope that people do see the irony of any resentment over baseball cards being a commodity, considering their role in history to help sell tobacco, bread, gum, candy, etc. etc.

[hcv123]

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

I believe many people do put their faith in the holder. Of course most of these people are not hard core collectors that know better (and know the market better), but apparently there are some/many? with deep pockets. Doing this a long time and also stunned at some of the numbers.

[mark evans]

I agree with Barry that, given the inherent subjectivity in grading, it is hard to justify the enormous disparities at the high end of valuable cards, like 8 v. 8.5 for example. It would seem to me that these disparities would diminish over time.

Further, while I would never offer unsolicited advice, it seems fair to speculate that the increase in values of vintage cards will taper off over time due to aging baby boomers and general economic conditions.

Finally, I am not offended by folks who approach the hobby for its investment value. I recognize that infusion of serious money engenders unpleasant consequences, like fraud, but think these problems can be adequately addressed by self-regulation assuming sufficient desire, and by law enforcement efforts where necessary.

[kailes2872]

Oh, and cards aren't an investment. They are an illiquid asset with huge transactional costs at both entry and exit. If you want to bamboozle the wife with ROI talk to justify a trip to the National to hang out and party at the hotel bar I can totally respect that but don't expect me to buy into it. Maybe a Wagner is an investment but a vg T206 is a toy for boys. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I mean chicks dig guys who collect cards: look at all the women in the hotel bars in Chicago the first night of the National. So friendly. Gotta be the cards. Right?

This is what I keep coming back to... The 20% juice (or 13% + time & energy on Ebay) speak to those huge transaction costs. If my broker charged me this to move in and out of funds or single stocks, I would probably not consider the stock market a place that I would want to invest - considering how much work it would take to make money above the transaction costs.

I did laugh about bamboozling the wife - as whenever the arms cross and I get a stink eye about the latest card/set/project that I have bought or began, I pull out my inventory on the PSA registry page that shows that I have made about 20% above what I bought them for. Of course, this is SMR which does not feel very real world, and she & I know that I have no intention ever to sell - (and she doesn't realize that I am 80 cents on the dollar at an AH or less than that selling to a dealer) - but it cools down the heat in the kitchen and sometimes I will go on the offensive and compare the 20% return on my inventory to a measly 8.8% return on our liquid assets. Some day she is going to call my bluff and say - sell it all and I will have to explain that it really isn't that much above what I paid for it - if any at all - after fees are taken into account.

[Leon]

Taking the bluff might not be that bad for you down the road. It wasn't that bad for me. My return was much better than 20%.
My wife never thought I wouldn't do it either. Now I just tell her in 20 more years I will do it again. :)

Some day she is going to call my bluff and say - sell it all and I will have to explain that it really isn't that much above what I paid for it - if any at all - after fees are taken into account.

[ullmandds]

I agree with Barry that, given the inherent subjectivity in grading, it is hard to justify the enormous disparities at the high end of valuable cards, like 8 v. 8.5 for example. It would seem to me that these disparities would diminish over time.

Further, while I would never offer unsolicited advice, it seems fair to speculate that the increase in values of vintage cards will taper off over time due to aging baby boomers and general economic conditions.

Finally, I am not offended by folks who approach the hobby for its investment value. I recognize that infusion of serious money engenders unpleasant consequences, like fraud, but think these problems can be adequately addressed by self-regulation assuming sufficient desire, and by law enforcement efforts where necessary.


I totally agree!

[Yoda]

Nice write up, David. I am not a graded or raw collector and generally buy mid grade cards with great eye appeal (to me). I agree with a lot of your thoughts. Unless you are Bill Gates someone is always going to have more money than you. Collections are the same way. Just do what makes you happy. I appreciate seeing others collections and great cards too. The diversity of the hobby makes it interesting AS WELL as the amount of money. Take the money out and it does become less interesting to most. That all said, if the time and card are right, there is nothing wrong with a pointy cornered card...It seems the money just keeps rolling into the hobby.

Leon, just for old times sake, could you roll out the E90-1 Young Boston excruciatingly rare football helmet variation card. I miss seeing it. Tks. John

[steve B]

Steve, Dankz fir the discussion!

I was of the Same Mind Set!
Until They, Which Included a Gentlemen Who's Family had made their Papar
fir just about the same amount of time educated me.
(I guess my implications were in my head but didn't translate well inta my writings, "My Apologies Sir!)

I was Schooled in the process...
And Then was Told THaT Sum of the Process & Materials are Known
Howevar, The Expertise through the lack of Experience has been Lost.

The "What ta Use" is Sum What Known..
But the How, How Much & When ta Process them is Gone!

They concluded with Reproducing the Card Stock
Fir T206's, E90-1's & T205's Would be a NiGHTMare...

I Realize that there are many More Knowledgeable People witin the Papar Industry out there (And I'm Certainly Not one of them!) Wit more optimistic attitudes about Reproducin These Specific Card Stocks...

I just want ta add that Lost Arts are everywhere witin the History of Man
And from what I've found out this seems like a logical "Lost Art" ~

I Do Like Bein Correct...
I Just Very Rarely am! :)

Unless it has t do wit Electronic Theory ;)

Perhaps.
That someone with a lot of years in says it would be really hard must count for something.

One of the good things about paper is that for the most part papermaking back then was a bit less precise than it is now.
There's a variety with the stamps I collect known as "straw paper" Because it's got bits of straw/hay in it. Some people consider it as an entirely different paper. The reality is that if the vat of pulp has to be just fluid enough for the purpose, not too thick, not too watery. But since it's there all day being mixed they have to constantly add water. Back then, if too much water was added they'd throw in a bale or two of hay to thicken it up, resulting in a bit of the batch getting a bunch of hay particles in it.
That's 1870's -80's, and things barely changed at all between then and 1910.

Now it's probably constantly checked by sensors and a computer controls the water content.

Yes, a bunch of that expertise would have been lost. Duplicating it precisely so nobody could tell probably isn't possible. Duplicating it so it's really hard to tell? I think it's doable.

Steve B

[steve B]

It's always the guys with no money telling the rest of us how dumb we are to spend big money on high grade cards. They have yet to figure out that no one listens to investment advice from guys with no money.

<a data-flickr-embed="true" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/calvindog/27043235601/in/album-72157607823551376/" title="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"><img src="https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7436/27043235601_da0fab9348_z.jpg" width="388" height="640" alt="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"></a><script async src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Nice card!

I don't usually say people spending big on high grade cards are dumb. In some situations I'm not sure it's a good investment. Of course, I've had that same opinion of those cards, in some cases since they were new. (86 Fleer Jordan :( ) So you're probably right about some of my investment ideas.

On the original topic of money in the hobby.
It's one of those love/hate things. I've collected long enough that the prices between when I started and now are worlds apart. T206 Wagners were under 20K for sure, 52 Mantles were under 1000 even for a nice one.
Would I like to return to that?
Yes and no. Now that I've got "some money", at least the Mantle would be within reach, probably not the Wagner. (I could buy one at say 10K, but me and the card would be kicked out of the house shortly after ) And I'd love to get common T206s for $2 each with no regard for backs and not much for condition.
But then, back then I hung out at a dealers a LOT. Sort of worked for them, and got to see a lot of collections come in. And saw a lot of those go back out because what the cards were worth to a dealer wasn't enough to overcome the "these were granddads cards".

Yes, money has shut me out of some of the hobby, my own cheapness from a bit more. But if it wasn't for the money, a lot of that stuff would still be in attics and drawers, or would have been thrown out.
Would the Black Swamp find have been sold into the hobby if the cards were worth a dollar each? Maybe maybe not.

And yes, wherever there's money there are crooks.

But overall, I think the hobby has benefitted from the money.

Steve B

[mark evans]

"Bamboozling the wife" appears to be a theme that runs through many threads. My wife and I have avoided money issues over 30+ years by never combining our finances. Thus, she never complains about my purchases, nor I about hers (I once came home to find a new Cadillac SUV in the driveway.).

I realize this system would not work for all couples and, in particular, those where the wife works at home at child-rearing. Nevertheless, I mention it for the benefit of those collectors who may find it worthy of consideration.

[obcbobd]

Interesting article about what happened to the Elvis Presley collectable market as the original Elvis fans start dying of old age. Will BB Cards see a similar depression in 20-30 years when people, like me, from the 70/80s boom start dying off?

https://www.theguardian.com/music/shortcuts/2017/may/07/elvis-presley-memorabilia-plummeting-in-price

[aconte]

Interesting article about what happened to the Elvis Presley collectable market as the original Elvis fans start dying of old age. Will BB Cards see a similar depression in 20-30 years when people, like me, from the 70/80s boom start dying off?

https://www.theguardian.com/music/shortcuts/2017/may/07/elvis-presley-memorabilia-plummeting-in-price

Unless it is a top line HOFER, for the most part the answer is yes. It will
probably be more evident in 40-50 years when most of us will be gone.

[Snapolit1]

Elvis fans are aging out clearly. I'd also argue that Elvis hasn't held up particularly well over the decades. What he did doesn't seem quite so spectacular anymore. Ditto people like Bing Crosby. Sure it will be a good long while before people stop collecting Beatles stuff.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.
There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.



good write up as well. I like the point you made about the 'spread' being better because of PSA/SGC which is a great point.

The auctions houses also create the very important function by delivering mr. regular guys high end collectibles to the eyes of the right people. The right auction houses (which account for some of that spread) really are the equalizer for a regular guy selling his card to get similar results as the pro guy trying to get max money..

[Dpeck100]

I love flipping through some of the auction results. Some serious action in these right here.


A beater of this Johnny Unitas can be had for under $10.


http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=43358


Someone was an idiot when they paid 20k a few years ago for an Ozzie Smith PSA 10.


http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=42978


36k was a nose bleed price. Not sure what you call 54k.


http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=42980


You could own 100 PSA 7's or just 1 PSA 9. No clue what these generally sell for but $204k sounds like a very solid price.

http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=42871

[AGuinness]

I love flipping through some of the auction results. Some serious action in these right here.


A beater of this Johnny Unitas can be had for under $10.


http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=43358



That's just one data point, but SMR has the 9 at $5250, which says something right there.

[Dpeck100]

That's just one data point, but SMR has the 9 at $5250, which says something right there.


I am not entirely certain what you are getting at. The SMR was updated on all four of these examples listed based on these recent results.

PSA is very conservative when it comes to pricing of low pop cards. All four have guide values that are no where close to these recent sales.

If your point is that you can throw out this result I would disagree as it is a Pop 4 and the only sale in the liner notes is from 2003 and it went for $4,025 back then.

[AGuinness]

I see the point is that guide values are usually pretty slow in reacting to the market (edit: in the high-end market in particular).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Elvis fans are aging out clearly. I'd also argue that Elvis hasn't held up particularly well over the decades. What he did doesn't seem quite so spectacular anymore. Ditto people like Bing Crosby. Sure it will be a good long while before people stop collecting Beatles stuff.

Elvis was #3 on Rolling Stone's most recent top 100 singers list. And #3 on its top 100 artists list. So there.

[wondo]

Elvis fans are aging out clearly. I'd also argue that Elvis hasn't held up particularly well over the decades. What he did doesn't seem quite so spectacular anymore. Ditto people like Bing Crosby. Sure it will be a good long while before people stop collecting Beatles stuff.

Bring it back to baseball cards. Not many folks left alive that saw Gehrig or Ruth play. Many less that saw Cobb and WaJo play. Ain't nobody alive that saw Matty play (well, maybe a handful who dont remember). Yet, those players' cards continue to rise and it seems their collector base expands.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Unless it is a top line HOFER, for the most part the answer is yes. It will
probably be more evident in 40-50 years when most of us will be gone.

Basically, any card where a beater of a beater is still going for $1000+/- gives you a hint on what the top of the line HOFer can stay afloat when everything else goes down

A beater 1974 topps Dave Winfield rookie is a dollar etc.

A beater Beater 1914 Cracker Jack Cobb still has real value..

[Exhibitman]

Bring it back to baseball cards. Not many folks left alive that saw Gehrig or Ruth play. Many less that saw Cobb and WaJo play. Ain't nobody alive that saw Matty play (well, maybe a handful who dont remember). Yet, those players' cards continue to rise and it seems their collector base expands.

That's because we are all amateur historians of the sports or subjects we collect. I started following baseball in the mid-1970s and collecting current players, but then as I learned about Aaron and Mantle and Mays, I went there. And then it was off to the earlier players. You get started as a kid today and become a Kershaw collector, and you hear the comparisons with Koufax (and see the then and now style cards). So you take a look at Koufax's career and get a card. Then another one. Then you hear about those other legendary speedsters, so you get a Feller card (though you have to shop around to find one that isn't signed :) ). And that leads you to Grove and WaJo.

[Gobucsmagic74]

It's always the guys with no money telling the rest of us how dumb we are to spend big money on high grade cards. They have yet to figure out that no one listens to investment advice from guys with no money.

<a data-flickr-embed="true" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/calvindog/27043235601/in/album-72157607823551376/" title="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"><img src="https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7436/27043235601_da0fab9348_z.jpg" width="388" height="640" alt="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"></a><script async src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I seriously doubt anyone in their right mind would argue the investment potential of that card, (not to mention the awesomeness), even a peasant like myself who could never legitimately afford the same card in poor condition. Congrats on your success in life and for putting us poor people in our proper place.

[obcbobd]

Bring it back to baseball cards...

In the 1960s, almost no adults collected BB cards, T206s could be bought for pennies. Starting in the 70s, the number of people collecting cards increased, more so in the 80s and 90s.

However, the people no longer collecting cards (because they died) was almost non-existent. That is still the case as the number of people born in the 1920's or 30s who collected BB cards as adults was almost nil.

However 20 years from now, people born in the 50s and 60s, will start to die off. A much greater number of those people collected cards, so more cards, from their estates will enter the market. There will be less people buying, unless people born in the 90s and 00s take their place in equal numbers. This will result in a deflated market.

[hangman62]

I still think its dumb to spend big money on baseball cards

[1952boyntoncollector]

In the 1960s, almost no adults collected BB cards, T206s could be bought for pennies. Starting in the 70s, the number of people collecting cards increased, more so in the 80s and 90s.

However, the people no longer collecting cards (because they died) was almost non-existent. That is still the case as the number of people born in the 1920's or 30s who collected BB cards as adults was almost nil.

However 20 years from now, people born in the 50s and 60s, will start to die off. A much greater number of those people collected cards, so more cards, from their estates will enter the market. There will be less people buying, unless people born in the 90s and 00s take their place in equal numbers. This will result in a deflated market.

People still collect born in thei 70s and 80s..plus many of those are just starting to achieve big wealth. Lots of things lose value in 20-30 years or things we value now become obsolete People used to go and steal VCRs from peoples homes. Flat screen tvs used to be 20,000 dollars. Worrying about 30 years from now is a bit silly. 10 years from now a lot of things can change in life and worrying about cards wont be one of them. Ill worry about that stuff first.

Heck, in 10 years at least 10 people that posted today somewhere on net54 will announce to the world that they are getting out of the hobby only to not do that..

[Dpeck100]

I did a Google search on that Joe Jackson and I see it sold for 65k in 2015 via Heritage.

What is the estimate on value today?

[obcbobd]

Worrying about 30 years from now is a bit silly

I agree 100%, with the exception of saving for retirement. I would strongly recommend against having BB cards as a significant portion of your retirement portfolio if you are 35. For a short term, 5-10 years, I think they might be a pretty good investment.

[Dpeck100]

I still think its dumb to spend big money on baseball cards



I get the feeling this guy disagrees with you.


https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/baseball/company-sets/1914-cracker-jack/publishedset/114624

[mark evans]

A beautiful Joe Jackson.

And, Elvis deserved all the adulation he got, easily.

[AGuinness]

And, Elvis deserved all the adulation he got, easily.

And I believe Lennon is even quoted, "Without Elvis, there would be no Beatles."

[Snapolit1]

Elvis' body of work hasn't stood up well over time. I will stick by it. He was revolutionary for his day but his music hasn't stayed prominent.

[Billy5858]

Elvis' body of work hasn't stood up well over time. I will stick by it. He was revolutionary for his day but his music hasn't stayed prominent.

+1 ....if he was still alive he would have
been playing Vegas to the retirees not
the Coachella Fest like some of the bands
that still matter do.
Note: He'd be 82 so probably not playing anywhere

[Bicem]

I still think its dumb to spend big money on baseball cards

Most people would agree. Actually you could replace "big" with "any" and most people would agree.

[BeanTown]

I still think its dumb to spend big money on baseball cards

You could also replace baseball cards with Bats, Autographs, Photos, pennants, pins, etc... most would agree.

[Bored5000]

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

I think people's perspective is shaped by what their goal is with their collection. I have commented many times on your wrestling cards, since I was a huge fan of wrestling growing up. To me, I would derive as much (or more) joy from your Rax Roast Beef set as from a high-grade Andre or Hulk Hogan card from the Wrestling All-Stars set that is worth a couple thousand dollars.

Some of my favorite cards I own are only $200-300 cards, but I like them more than cards that are worth more but could be replaced any day of the week simply by going to eBay.

With $5,000 or $25,000 or even $100,000 to put into one card, I would rather have an absolute rarity than a condition rarity. That's not a criticism of your choice in collecting, but just an observation that many collectors have a different methodology for how they collect.

[ullmandds]

I think people's perspective is shaped by what their goal is with their collection. I have commented many times on your wrestling cards, since I was a huge fan of wrestling growing up. To me, I would derive as much (or more) joy from your Rax Roast Beef set as from a high-grade Andre or Hulk Hogan card from the Wrestling All-Stars set that is worth a couple thousand dollars.

Some of my favorite cards I own are only $200-300 cards, but I like them more than cards that are worth more but could be replaced any day of the week simply by going to eBay.

With $5,000 or $25,000 or even $100,000 to put into one card, I would rather have an absolute rarity than a condition rarity. That's not a criticism of your choice in collecting, but just an observation that many collectors have a different methodology for how they collect.

I concur!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Elvis' body of work hasn't stood up well over time. I will stick by it. He was revolutionary for his day but his music hasn't stayed prominent.

What does that mean, hasn't stood up well over time? What criteria are you applying? I will go with Rolling Stone's assessment if I need to go beyond my own opinion which is that he remains among the very few greatest rock singers.

[calvindog]

What does that mean, hasn't stood up well over time? What criteria are you applying? I will go with Rolling Stone's assessment if I need to go beyond my own opinion which is that he remains among the very few greatest rock singers.

Graceland is packed every single day of the week with tourists. He's been dead for 30 years. What other entertainer who has been gone that long has such a following? And Elvis has his own channel on Sirius -- do the Beatles?

I don't see how anyone can state objectively that his music has not stood up over time. His music is timeless, and I'm not even the biggest Elvis fan (though I have been to Graceland).

[1952boyntoncollector]

Graceland is packed every single day of the week with tourists. He's been dead for 30 years. What other entertainer who has been gone that long has such a following? And Elvis has his own channel on Sirius -- do the Beatles?

.

http://www.siriusxm.com/thebeatleschannel

[frankbmd]

Elvis' body of work hasn't stood up well over time. I will stick by it. He was revolutionary for his day but his music hasn't stayed prominent.

Is anyone collecting revolutionary hip-hop artists of 70s, or can anyone even name one that more than 2 in 10 would recognize?

In my opinion Elvis, the Beatles, James Brown and Motown will always have a place in music history long after folks stop googling "What da funk":eek:

[darwinbulldog]

Well then.

[darwinbulldog]

I think people will recognize the name Elvis for many decades to come, but relatively few of them will enjoy listening to his music, so he's transcended his talents and entered the ranks of famous for being famous.

[ValKehl]

I concur!

Me too, all day long!

[calvindog]

http://www.siriusxm.com/thebeatleschannel

Damn. Not sure how I missed that. Has this been on for long?

PS the fact that I was unaware of this channel supports my argument that the Beatles don't resonate today as well as Elvis does. :)

[ullmandds]

Damn. Not sure how I missed that. Has this been on for long?

PS the fact that I was unaware of this channel supports my argument that the Beatles don't resonate today as well as Elvis does. :)

Gotta disagree with you here, Jeff...the beatles reasonate 100 x's more than elvis does today!

[obcbobd]

Damn. Not sure how I missed that. Has this been on for long?

PS the fact that I was unaware of this channel supports my argument that the Beatles don't resonate today as well as Elvis does. :)
I think the station is new in the past week or so.

[Bill77]

Just my two cents but I would rather listen to Elvis than the Beatles as I think most if not all of their music has not age well at all either.

And I definitely would not want to watch any of Elvis or the Beatles movies.

Again just my two cents on the topic.

[Snapolit1]

Everyone's entitled to their opinions. Elvis was a revolutionary musical performer, an actor, and a larger than life persona. As to the movies, they are not watched today really by anyone. The persona part had its day, but I wouldn't want to be looking for work as an Elvis impersonator these days. As to the music, so what that satellite radio has a station. They have a Jimmy Buffett channel too and I'd hardly argue that he's a revolutionary anything. Elvis sold a ton or records in his day and I am sure his estate sells relatively few these days. Graceland? Nowhere close to the tourist pull it was. (Don't believe the hype from Elvis Presley Enterprises, Inc.) Cool place I've been there twice. Planes are gone. Man has his place in rock and roll history.
Last time I was at Sun Studios all my tour guide wanted to talk about was Johnny Cash.

[btcarfagno]

I am not sure that I understand what is being argued here regarding Elvis/The Beatles etc. Of course much of their music would not hold up for today's generation. Music tastes change. Attitudes change. Most importantly, what Elvis and The Beatles did has been either mimicked or at least partially copied so much over the past 50+ years that it has watered down the original.

Like anything else they need to be viewed in the context of their time. Citizen Kane was a landmark film in 1939 for many many reasons. Those reasons soon became standard film making practice. 75 years later my kids watch it and only see the story and it being "just another film". Without the historical context this is what happens.

Just because the music of Elvis or The Beatles may not "hold up" to today's generation doesn't make them any less important. In some ways, the influence of Elvis and The Beatles permiating every corner of the music industry has led to their own music not "holding up". It has been copied and mimicked so often that it has watered down the content of the original. Until you put them in their true historical context. Like a Citizen Kane.

Tom C

[GasHouseGang]

I seriously doubt anyone in their right mind would argue the investment potential of that card, (not to mention the awesomeness), even a peasant like myself who could never legitimately afford the same card in poor condition. Congrats on your success in life and for putting us poor people in our proper place.

..

[brian1961]

I am not sure that I understand what is being argued here regarding Elvis/The Beatles etc. Of course much of their music would not hold up for today's generation. Music tastes change. Attitudes change. Most importantly, what Elvis and The Beatles did has been either mimicked or at least partially copied so much over the past 50+ years that it has watered down the original.

Like anything else they need to be viewed in the context of their time. Citizen Kane was a landmark film in 1939 for many many reasons. Those reasons soon became standard film making practice. 75 years later my kids watch it and only see the story and it being "just another film". Without the historical context this is what happens.

Just because the music of Elvis or The Beatles may not "hold up" to today's generation doesn't make them any less important. In some ways, the influence of Elvis and The Beatles permiating every corner of the music industry has led to their own music not "holding up". It has been copied and mimicked so often that it has watered down the content of the original. Until you put them in their true historical context. Like a Citizen Kane.

Tom C

Tom, very well articulated, bro. Right on, man! --Brian Powell

[Snapolit1]

I am not sure that I understand what is being argued here regarding Elvis/The Beatles etc. Of course much of their music would not hold up for today's generation. Music tastes change. Attitudes change. Most importantly, what Elvis and The Beatles did has been either mimicked or at least partially copied so much over the past 50+ years that it has watered down the original.

Like anything else they need to be viewed in the context of their time. Citizen Kane was a landmark film in 1939 for many many reasons. Those reasons soon became standard film making practice. 75 years later my kids watch it and only see the story and it being "just another film". Without the historical context this is what happens.

Just because the music of Elvis or The Beatles may not "hold up" to today's generation doesn't make them any less important. In some ways, the influence of Elvis and The Beatles permiating every corner of the music industry has led to their own music not "holding up". It has been copied and mimicked so often that it has watered down the content of the original. Until you put them in their true historical context. Like a Citizen Kane.

Tom C

Only point I was making was that while Elvis was a huge act (the biggest probably), I can understand why his memorabilia has fallen off a cliff. I don't think his musical has held up for new generations of music fans. Some rare performers, the Beatles for example, will always convert new generations. Go to a McCartney show and watch 10 year singing every song. Doesn't mean they are better or worse. But they continue to resonate. James Dean continues to be know today despite a very limited career. 1000000s of better actors have lapsed into obscurity.

[btcarfagno]

Only point I was making was that while Elvis was a huge act (the biggest probably), I can understand why his memorabilia has fallen off a cliff. I don't think his musical has held up for new generations of music fans. Some rare performers, the Beatles for example, will always convert new generations. Go to a McCartney show and watch 10 year singing every song. Doesn't mean they are better or worse. But they continue to resonate. James Dean continues to be know today despite a very limited career. 1000000s of better actors have lapsed into obscurity.

When you talk about resonating and icons like James Dean you are talking more about their cult of personality than anything that their work might show.

And I am not sure where you see Elvis memorabilia values falling off a cliff. Admittedly I don't follow Elvis memorabilia. Our paths cross only with regard to autographs and movie posters. And these have not dropped measurably in price.

As to the resonance of Elvis' music, there are parts of the country where it remains very popular. In those same areas the music of The Beatles likely seems to not resonate anymore. Just a matter of perspective.

From my perspective, in the collecting areas where I see Elvis items, I do not see what you seem to see.

Tom C

[Bored5000]

Only point I was making was that while Elvis was a huge act (the biggest probably), I can understand why his memorabilia has fallen off a cliff. I don't think his musical has held up for new generations of music fans. Some rare performers, the Beatles for example, will always convert new generations. Go to a McCartney show and watch 10 year singing every song. Doesn't mean they are better or worse. But they continue to resonate. James Dean continues to be know today despite a very limited career. 1000000s of better actors have lapsed into obscurity.

James Dean's iconic stature is also helped by his death at age 24 and dying at the height of his career. His legacy would be different, perhaps even greater or perhaps he would have drifted into obscurity, if he had made dozens of films and lived into his 70s or 80s.

[drcy]

Greta Garbo and Rudolf Valentino memorabilia is still popularly collected, but their values have fallen as their stars have faded over the years.

However, if Mozart was still around he would be making a wealthy annual income from how much his music is played and recorded.

I never understood the singular popularity of Elvis, which is not to say I'm saying he wasn't charismatic and without talent. But, as far as Mozart goes, even his elder Haydn said he was a singular once-in-a-hundred years genius.

[calvindog]

Elvis sold a ton or records in his day and I am sure his estate sells relatively few these days. Graceland? Nowhere close to the tourist pull it was. (Don't believe the hype from Elvis Presley Enterprises, Inc.) Cool place I've been there twice. Planes are gone. Man has his place in rock and roll history.
Last time I was at Sun Studios all my tour guide wanted to talk about was Johnny Cash.

Planes are still there at Graceland and the Sun Studio tour is barely about Johnny Cash. When did you go last? I was at both a year ago. And Elvis had an album out recently that was near the top of the Billboard charts.

[trdcrdkid]

As of four years ago, Elvis was the second-highest earning dead celebrity at $60 million a year, behind only Michael Jackson at $200 million. I can't imagine that has changed too dramatically since then.

http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/entertainment-articles/the-10-highest-earning-dead-celebrities/

[Dpeck100]

I think people's perspective is shaped by what their goal is with their collection. I have commented many times on your wrestling cards, since I was a huge fan of wrestling growing up. To me, I would derive as much (or more) joy from your Rax Roast Beef set as from a high-grade Andre or Hulk Hogan card from the Wrestling All-Stars set that is worth a couple thousand dollars.

Some of my favorite cards I own are only $200-300 cards, but I like them more than cards that are worth more but could be replaced any day of the week simply by going to eBay.

With $5,000 or $25,000 or even $100,000 to put into one card, I would rather have an absolute rarity than a condition rarity. That's not a criticism of your choice in collecting, but just an observation that many collectors have a different methodology for how they collect.



I personally don't think there is one correct way to collect. Some of my cards are rare and most are rare simply because they are in nice condition. I personally got way more enjoyment out of tracking down that set than I do paying through the nose for some bum in a PSA 10 just to add it to my registry set.

When the topic of money in the hobby came up I really didn't give much thought to wrestling cards other than the highest graded have done the best and continue to do so. The wrestling card market is so small and most cards even in high grade are very affordable. I was speaking more in terms of the major sports as that is where real money is spent and card prices obviously for top level pieces go into the millions.

I personally don't buy the idea that there is going to be some day right around the corner when the demand just fizzles right out. Look how easily the cards Donald Spence sold were absorbed. Cards represent history and just because someone didn't see them play doesn't mean they won't have an interest. The two most expensive cards I have ever seen pictures of are owned by someone in their thirties. Mickey Mantle was retired well before he was even born.

[Exhibitman]

Elvis was a hero to most
But he never meant $hit to me.
--Public Enemy

Musical tastes definitely differ by region, race, ethnicity, social class, etc. Elvis and Public Enemy are both in the rock n roll HOF for very different reasons and constituencies. Debating the merits of each against the other is meaningless out of context. It isn't baseball stats. Listen to what you like.

As for the actual topic, I agree with most of what David P posted above. I am all about the rarity in what I collect. I don't get a buzz from a mainstream card the way I do from finding some obscure rarity.

[jb217676]

Elvis was a hero to most
But he never meant $hit to me.
--Public Enemy

Musical tastes definitely differ by region, race, ethnicity, social class, etc. Elvis and Public Enemy are both in the rock n roll HOF for very different reasons and constituencies. Debating the merits of each against the other is meaningless out of context. It isn't baseball stats. Listen to what you like.

As for the actual topic, I agree with most of what David P posted above. I am all about the rarity in what I collect. I don't get a buzz from a mainstream card the way I do from finding some obscure rarity.

My nine year old and I love Public Enemy!

[ValKehl]

Being an old fart at age 73, I fondly remember the days of Elvis and the Beatles and greatly enjoy listening to their music on Sirius-XM, but who or what is Public Enemy? :D

[jb217676]

PE in full effect, Brother!

[mark evans]

Being an old fart at age 73, I fondly remember the days of Elvis and the Beatles and greatly enjoy listening to their music on Sirius-XM, but who or what is Public Enemy? :D

Thank you, Val. My sentiments as well.

Having said that, I certainly respect others who have tastes that vary from mine. Agree with Adam -- pretty subjective stuff.

Mark

[Exhibitman]

My nine year old and I love Public Enemy!

Me too. Most old school hip hop. Also 70s funk. But I listen to just about everything now and then. A lot of old Brazilian jazz lately. Astrud Gilberto, Jobim, etc. Even Henry Mancini and Alamo Schiffrin are on my play list.

[Leon]

They look like they should be in jail to me.

PE in full effect, Brother!

[jb217676]

Public Enemy still perform live and there all pushing 60 years old. The Rolling Stones of Hip-Hop culture!

[Bicem]

They look like they should be in jail to me.

Lol

[hangman62]

Clock King was Flavor Flavs father

[samosa4u]

It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards.


Not true at all. I remember if you went on any online forum 15 years ago, you'd find all kinds of crazy threads discussing grading companies, auction houses, their employees, etc.

I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

Corrupt is a very broad term, so you're going to have to be a little more specific here. How would PSA found to be corrupt?

[rainier2004]

Not true at all. I remember if you went on any online forum 15 years ago, you'd find all kinds of crazy threads discussing grading companies, auction houses, their employees, etc.

Yeah but I feel there is more now than there was then. There also seems to be information now then there was 15 years ago. There were less auctions houses, eBay was king with no major sellers like Probstein or PWCC and Mastro and Allen were, well, what they have been proven to be.

Corrupt is a very broad term, so you're going to have to be a little more specific here. How would PSA found to be corrupt?

Corrupt - To act dishonestly to benefit yourself or others either monetarily or by some other compensation. That is my definition, not sure how that compares to Websters. I'm not saying PSA is corrupt, but what if they were? Are the prices for the cards or the flips? The cards have been around for a long time and always posed barrier of entry to the hobby d/t experience and overall knowledge. TRUST in PSA, as the major grader ion the hobby, eliminates those issues knowing their purchase is protected by that flip. SO what if it was found that PSA had a couple card doctors in their back pocket that also worked worth a major seller or 2? What if it was proven they started doing this in 1994...that would be a lot of cards and flips. I'm am NOT saying any of this is true in any remote fashion, but what if it was proven to be. What would happen to the hobby? Values? Total collectors? I think you would see a dramatic shift.

[rainier2004]

Not true at all. I remember if you went on any online forum 15 years ago, you'd find all kinds of crazy threads discussing grading companies, auction houses, their employees, etc.

Yeah but I feel there is more now than there was then. There also seems to be information now then there was 15 years ago. There were less auctions houses, eBay was king with no major sellers like Probstein or PWCC and Mastro and Allen were, well, what they have been proven to be.

[Exhibitman]

They look like they should be in jail to me.

http://www.net54baseball.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=272646&stc=1&d=1494442933

Because of?

[Bicem]

Being awesome.

[Leon]

They look like gang members or thugs to me....I don't get out much and prefer it that way. And after watching them I am sticking to my story here and my mantra of the worst thing in America is Parenting....but let's get back to cards please..and back to topic, the hobby is becoming another investment vehicle it seems, especially in the highest graded slabs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PaoLy7PHwk

http://www.net54baseball.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=272646&stc=1&d=1494442933

Because of?

[Bliggity]

They look like gang members or thugs to me.

Wow.

[Leon]

I watched a few of their youtube videos. We all have our own opinions. Wow.

Wow.

[Bpm0014]

We all have our own opinions. Wow.

^^^ Exactly. As a huge fan of old school hip hop (but a STRONG dislike of Public Enemy), I'd be willing to bet that most of them have served some form of jail time. So Leon is not far off whatsoever with his assessment. In fact, I'll quote the last guy on the bottom row:

Before the release of It Takes a Nation of Millions to Hold Us Back, Professor Griff, in his role as Minister of Information, gave interviews to UK magazines on behalf of Public Enemy, during which he made homophobic and anti-Semitic remarks. However, there was little controversy until May 22, 1989, when Griffin was interviewed by the Washington Times. At the time, Public Enemy enjoyed unprecedented mainstream attention with the single "Fight the Power" from the soundtrack of Spike Lee's Do the Right Thing.

During the interview with David Mills, Griffin made numerous statements such as "Jews are responsible for the majority of the wickedness in the world". When the interview was published, a media firestorm emerged, and the band found itself under intense scrutiny.

[Bpm0014]

And here's some information on the first guy, bottom row:

By the time he dropped out of school in the 11th grade, Flav had been in and out of jail for robbery and burglary. In 1991, Flav pleaded guilty to assaulting his then-girlfriend Karen Ross and served 30 days in jail, lost custody of his children, and sank deeper into addiction. In 1993, Flav was charged with attempted murder and imprisoned for 90 days for shooting at his neighbor. That same year, Flav was later charged with domestic violence, cocaine and marijuana charges.

[obcbobd]

They look like they should be in jail to me.

I think that is the look they are going for

[ls7plus]

I can't think of a good analogy, but modern and antique printing technology are mutually exclusive, just as the words modern and antique are mutually exclusive.

You identify and date the printing technology by looking at the printing at the microscopic level, not the naked eye level. So a digital printing technology (say a laser printer) can make a great reproduction at the naked eye level, but is identified as modern printing under the microscope.

Absolutely, David--and a great couple of articles you authored, by the way--they are much appreciated! Examples made by taking different paths leave different footprints.

Further thoughts: The sky is not falling, nor is the bottom dropping out of the hobby because some prices are rising quite quickly, and it's not only PSA 9's and 10's. The autographed Dietsche Cobb rookie that recently sold in the BST 10/23/16 auction for $26,220.00 previously sold for a fraction of that, $5377.00 in October, 2012. The PSA 5 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb rookie which sold tor $10,875.70 in the May 16, 2015 Heritage auction went for $7852.81 on 3/16/12. Our hobby is simply catching up with other collectible markets such as coins with regard to really rare and significant items, but is doing so IMHO much faster due to the internet. I started collecting again as an adult circa 1990, and you could attend the National, major regional shows, as well as all the locals and not come close to finding all of the rare and significant cards that appear on ebay or in one or more of the major auctions on a relatively frequent basis. The internet, as well as the proliferation of major auction houses, coupled with real and legitimate growth of the hobby has vastly altered the demand versus supply equation with regard to such items, which of course multiplies value in a big way.

This is not to say that some of the big money collectors are not simply investors, but that is not all bad. If you study the history of the coin field, you'll see that when a herd of such investors come in, prices soar (especially for very high numbered mint state items--mint state is numbered from 60-70 in coins-- which may be relatively common in only slightly lower mint state grades), only to fall back when a number of these individuals exit stage right. But some of them stay, decide they like what they've purchased, and become real collectors. The market has then not only recovered, but grown in subsequent years! And what's not to like about vintage cards? They are truly a two-dimensional slice of a 3-dimensional moment in the player's life and career, made contemporaneously with that single instant, and preserved for decades, centuries, and millenniums (?). The card does in fact connect you to the player, and take you back to the time!

Best wishes to all, and much thanks again for the links to the two articles, David,

Larry

[ls7plus]

"when you consider that the 1903 E107 Mathewson in the REA auction, which went for $144,000, was a $900- $1000 item in 1995--thus increasing in value around 150 times in just over ....."

Larry-I'm not sure where you are getting your 1995 number from. In the mid-1990s I won a beat to hell Mathewson E107 in a David Festberg auction for $2000. When I got it I found that the condition was even worse than described and I called David to say I was returning it. His response? No problem--the under bidder was Larry Fritsch and he'll take it.

I'm just going by a guide issued in 1995 which I have found to be pretty reliable on a consistent basis. But a guide is just a guide. It would not surprise me at all to learn that several very knowledgeable collectors such as yourself and Fritsch would go well over guide when they knew how rare and significant that card was. I purchased a 1925 Gehrig rookie at the '98 National in ungraded VG for $500, and the seller almost begged me to take it at that price. After I verified its' authenticity with my 16X loupe, he really didn't have to try so hard, since I had other information that they had been changing hands at $1100 in the same grade around that time. I hope you kept it!!!

May your collecting bring you bliss,

Larry

[ls7plus]

It's always the guys with no money telling the rest of us how dumb we are to spend big money on high grade cards. They have yet to figure out that no one listens to investment advice from guys with no money.


Totally agree with that sentiment, Jeff--and let us hear from you more often!

Highest regards,

Larry

[MattyC]

They look like gang members or thugs to me....

And after watching them I am sticking to my story here and my mantra of the worst thing in America is Parenting...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PaoLy7PHwk

So let me get this straight. If I like working out to a PE song, then you're talking shit about my parents and how they raised me?

[Leon]

Why would I care anything about you at all except you are a collector and board member? Please leave any family members out as there is 0 tolerance for it. I made a statement that said I think the biggest problem in America today is parenting. If you don't like that point of view I am fine with it. Why you would bring your family into it I have no earthly idea. Yes, I think most gang members and thugs should have had better parenting. That is a lot of the problem in America today, bad parenting.

So let me get this straight. If I like working out to a PE song, then you're talking shit about my parents and how they raised me?

[ls7plus]

Taking the bluff might not be that bad for you down the road. It wasn't that bad for me. My return was much better than 20%.
My wife never thought I wouldn't do it either. Now I just tell her in 20 more years I will do it again. :)

+1. When you have something that you've held for a lengthy period, and you've made such a good selection regarding the item in question that the auction price is 10, 20, 30, or more times what you paid for it, the 20% juice doesn't make much of a hit at all, from my perspective. At or about 1990, the Standard Catalog, if I'm not mistaken, had the M101-4 and M101-5 Ruth at $1800 in near mint. Now frankly, this was conservative, but I recall bidding in a Sports Collector's Digest auction for one in ungraded ExMt in the mid-nineties. Unfortunately, I bid up to $5500 and it went for $6000, but compare that to the current Heritage auction, where, when I checked a couple of hours ago, the PSA 7 example was at $480,000, including the buyer's premium.

Best wishes,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Perhaps.
That someone with a lot of years in says it would be really hard must count for something.

One of the good things about paper is that for the most part papermaking back then was a bit less precise than it is now.
There's a variety with the stamps I collect known as "straw paper" Because it's got bits of straw/hay in it. Some people consider it as an entirely different paper. The reality is that if the vat of pulp has to be just fluid enough for the purpose, not too thick, not too watery. But since it's there all day being mixed they have to constantly add water. Back then, if too much water was added they'd throw in a bale or two of hay to thicken it up, resulting in a bit of the batch getting a bunch of hay particles in it.
That's 1870's -80's, and things barely changed at all between then and 1910.

Now it's probably constantly checked by sensors and a computer controls the water content.

Yes, a bunch of that expertise would have been lost. Duplicating it precisely so nobody could tell probably isn't possible. Duplicating it so it's really hard to tell? I think it's doable.

Steve B

But getting the paper right is only the start. Unless you have the original plate or the original photo from which it was derived, you won't be able to match the legitimate dot pattern produced by the printing process.

Happy collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Interesting article about what happened to the Elvis Presley collectable market as the original Elvis fans start dying of old age. Will BB Cards see a similar depression in 20-30 years when people, like me, from the 70/80s boom start dying off?

https://www.theguardian.com/music/shortcuts/2017/may/07/elvis-presley-memorabilia-plummeting-in-price

Perhaps you haven't been paying attention to rare and significant Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, etc. cards. They've been doing quite well, and virtually none of the buyers of their cards were there to see them play. Baseball and its history are truly Americana at its finest, and I believe the sport itself is so deep in its tradition that this isn't going to change any time soon, certainly not before all of us are long gone.

Good luck in your collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

In the 1960s, almost no adults collected BB cards, T206s could be bought for pennies. Starting in the 70s, the number of people collecting cards increased, more so in the 80s and 90s.

However, the people no longer collecting cards (because they died) was almost non-existent. That is still the case as the number of people born in the 1920's or 30s who collected BB cards as adults was almost nil.

However 20 years from now, people born in the 50s and 60s, will start to die off. A much greater number of those people collected cards, so more cards, from their estates will enter the market. There will be less people buying, unless people born in the 90s and 00s take their place in equal numbers. This will result in a deflated market.

That's been a concern for many years in coins, Bob, and it simply hasn't happened with regard to the rare and significant, most desired examples at all. In addition, I was truly amazed at the number of young people at the 2015 National.

Larry

[ls7plus]

I would rather have an absolute rarity than a condition rarity. That's not a criticism of your choice in collecting, but just an observation that many collectors have a different methodology for how they collect.

Couldn't agree more with this sentiment!

Regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Everyone's entitled to their opinions. Elvis was a revolutionary musical performer, an actor, and a larger than life persona. As to the movies, they are not watched today really by anyone. The persona part had its day, but I wouldn't want to be looking for work as an Elvis impersonator these days. As to the music, so what that satellite radio has a station. They have a Jimmy Buffett channel too and I'd hardly argue that he's a revolutionary anything. Elvis sold a ton or records in his day and I am sure his estate sells relatively few these days. Graceland? Nowhere close to the tourist pull it was. (Don't believe the hype from Elvis Presley Enterprises, Inc.) Cool place I've been there twice. Planes are gone. Man has his place in rock and roll history.
Last time I was at Sun Studios all my tour guide wanted to talk about was Johnny Cash.

I think that if you search for "Presley" on cable, you will consistently find a number of his movies for which there are many sponsors. The latter, at least, apparently have good reason to believe that many people will be watching.

May your collecting bring you joy,

Larry

[ls7plus]

They look like they should be in jail to me.

An interesting commentary on the younger generation(s)?

Regards,

Larry

[mark evans]

I won't belabor the 'Elvis' debate except to make a final point. Others may disagree as to his appropriate place in the pantheon of American pop music, but one thing is clear.

I've been to Elvis's birthplace, what's called a "shotgun shack" in East Tupelo. His family was dirt poor, trust me. For me, this makes his meteoric rise to the pinnacle of stardom all the more admirable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

We all have our own opinions. Wow.

^^^ Exactly. As a huge fan of old school hip hop (but a STRONG dislike of Public Enemy), I'd be willing to bet that most of them have served some form of jail time. So Leon is not far off whatsoever with his assessment. In fact, I'll quote the last guy on the bottom row:

Before the release of It Takes a Nation of Millions to Hold Us Back, Professor Griff, in his role as Minister of Information, gave interviews to UK magazines on behalf of Public Enemy, during which he made homophobic and anti-Semitic remarks. However, there was little controversy until May 22, 1989, when Griffin was interviewed by the Washington Times. At the time, Public Enemy enjoyed unprecedented mainstream attention with the single "Fight the Power" from the soundtrack of Spike Lee's Do the Right Thing.

During the interview with David Mills, Griffin made numerous statements such as "Jews are responsible for the majority of the wickedness in the world". When the interview was published, a media firestorm emerged, and the band found itself under intense scrutiny.

Poetry.

"That woman in the corner - cold playin' the role
Leave her ass in the corner till her feet get cold
Knowin' for a fact - that girl is whacked
If you hold your hand out - she'll turn her back
Better walk, don't talk - she's all pretend
Can't be her friend unless you spend
Wall to wall - after all
Get ready to throw only money at the bitch."

[drcy]

Public Enemy did some good, hard hitting music.

I think 99.9% of MTV music videos of are stupid and embarassing, so don't judge music by the videos.

[steve B]

MTV still shows videos?

[steve B]

But getting the paper right is only the start. Unless you have the original plate or the original photo from which it was derived, you won't be able to match the legitimate dot pattern produced by the printing process.

Happy collecting,

Larry

I believe that is also possible, and in some cases may be easier than duplicating the paper and ink.

Sometimes I consider giving it a try just to prove it's possible, then I start adding up the cost what I'd need, and the hours I'd have to spend, and for me it's just too expensive without the willingness to actually put a few out there. That's a line I just wouldn't cross, I'd end up as a great technician who wasn't any better than some guy with a laser printer and some cardboard. And more than likely one who was doing time.

Now if some one wanted to sponsor the project as a bit of performance art with all the card/cards and the entire setup destroyed at the end to be sure they weren't sold.......(Adds to list of bad ideas that I'm probably glad there wouldn't be any support for.)

Steve B

[drcy]

MTV still shows videos?

I don't own a television, so am going by memory.

[Stampsfan]

Me thinks this thread should be moved to the Watercooler section, as there is less and less about vintage cards, and more about PE, Elvis, Beatles, and parenting.

Seen any good concerts lately?

[ls7plus]

I believe that is also possible, and in some cases may be easier than duplicating the paper and ink.

Sometimes I consider giving it a try just to prove it's possible, then I start adding up the cost what I'd need, and the hours I'd have to spend, and for me it's just too expensive without the willingness to actually put a few out there. That's a line I just wouldn't cross, I'd end up as a great technician who wasn't any better than some guy with a laser printer and some cardboard. And more than likely one who was doing time.

Now if some one wanted to sponsor the project as a bit of performance art with all the card/cards and the entire setup destroyed at the end to be sure they weren't sold.......(Adds to list of bad ideas that I'm probably glad there wouldn't be any support for.)

Steve B

No. To match the original dot pattern, you'd need the original plate, or the original photo/negative to make a duplicate "original" plate. All likely long since gone. Try to do it from a different approach and you will leave different footprints at, as David says, the Microscopic level, and I believe at the high power magnification level--say 16x--as well.

Happy collecting,

Larry