Aaron Judge

[Hardspun8]

Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?

[WillBBC]

Dunn 2.0 would be a great player! Being in NY will only help and I hope he can cut down on the strikeouts but I can't remember a guy his size ever having great success in MLB. If he shortens his swing and can learn to take walks he will be a stud.

[RayBShotz]

Michael Conforto has a better shot at the moment (Mets).

[D. Bergin]

Maybe he will surprise me, but I don't rate him highly at all. As a Yankee fan I'd be ecstatic if he projects out to a Richie Sexson type, but I think that's pushing the boundries of expectations, and that certainly doesn't map out as a player to "invest" in.

[packs]

I tend to agree with you. I just don't think he'll develop the ability to walk which really puts pressure on him to hit 30 plus homers a year. Even if he is able to do that we all saw Chris Carter nearly go to Japan due to lack of interest.

[D. Bergin]

It's not like Judge has put up mind-blowing stats in the minor leagues. Not sure how pretty good minor league hitter maps out to Superstar major league potential. It's not like he's just out of High School either. He's pushing 25 already.

He's about 8 months younger then Mike Trout.

[packs]

Yeah I mean max potential would be a Giancarlo Stanton type but Stanton hit 39 homers as an 18 year old. Judge never did anything like that while being much older and having the benefit of college ball.

[bigfanNY]

yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..

[ls7plus]

Rob Deer the second. Big guy, big long swing, lots of K's. A sucker for low outside sliders that he can't tell are not fastballs. Brings to mind Dusty Springfield's hit in the '60's--"Wishing and Hoping."

Good luck on that plunge,

Larry

[ls7plus]

yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..

The problem with Sanchez is that his track record--minor league stats, with a fairly large sample size--don't reflect anything like that kind of production. Either a short term fluke (a la Ron Swoboda--10 HR's in his first 118 AB while batting .271 during that period in '65), or he had some artificial additive assistance. Sanchez had some decent to good HR stats in the minors over a pretty fair number of years, but nothing remotely resembling a homer per every 10 AB.

Regards,

Larry

[packs]

I think that's a pretty big reach. Sanchez hit a total of 30 homers last year. He hit 25 homers total the year before accounting for his various minor league stops. I don't see anything out of the ordinary with his production. He of course won't hit home runs at that pace over a full year, but there's no reason not to believe he is a 30 homer guy.

[D. Bergin]

Sanchez is solid, and he's young with room to grow. Barring injuries he should have a good career.

Catching is a tough position. I'd be happy with Jorge Posada type production out of him at the plate, while being superior to Posada defensively.

Whether that's "investment" level for a modern player is another thing. There's always short term hype..........long term on modern cards, I think the pool of players is really small you'd want to bother with. There will be a bunch of borderline HOF'er guys most people won't care about 15 years from now.......and projecting ANY young player not named Mike Trout out to HOF status is a big reach.......borderline or not.

Baseball is littered with guys who put up big stats the first 5-10 years of their career or so, only to fizzle out too early for collectors to pay too much attention to them years down the line.

[packs]

Very true. Just look at David Wright. His career parallels Mattingly almost exactly. Nomar and Joe Mauer are other names that come to mind. On the pitching side I'm sure everyone assumed Johan and Lincecum were destined for all time great statuses too.

[clydepepper]

Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.

[r0ck8ott0m]

Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.
As I think all these players are good and way to early to
Make an investment but that being said that puts the whole excitement in the collecting a young player. It's a huge swing if you invest in the right player who's cards are relatively cheap but it can easily go the other way lol. If I had to choose right now besides the obvious would be correa. I think the way he is on the field defensively, size, speed and a big bat all outshinesthe players mentioned in this thread. He would be my pick for future HOF.

[packs]

Gary Sanchez put on a show today. Do not run on that man.

[ls7plus]

I've changed my opinion on Aaron Judge. Watched him quite a bit last year, and he had holes on inside corner fastballs and sliders down and away, chasing the latter out of the zone and down into the dirt. After seeing him several times this year, it appears that he has moved back off the plate, taking advantage of his long arms, so that if a pitch appears inside, it almost certainly is, and he takes it instead of getting jammed or swinging and missing. Now, anything on the inside corner appears to him to be middle/in, or even middle/middle.

He's also far enough off the plate that he can't reach the slider in the lower, outside corner that he used to see as a fastball, and chase it into the dirt. For the most part (one exception last night), he knows he can't even reach it and lays off. If the pitcher hits that low outside corner now with a fastball, you simply tip your cap to him, as doing that is not so easy, and persisting in that attempt, unless the pitcher has really good command, is a very good way to get behind in the count. It's also a very tough pitch to do anything with in any event, unless you are Miguel Cabrera.

Last night, against Toronto, he hit a 450 foot homer over the centerfield fence, and didn't even have to swing that hard to do so. He is also a good fielder with a strong arm. I don't know that he will continue to hit .320 or .330 with 35-40 (or even more?) homeruns, but it does look like he is going to be very good, at this still very early point in his career. Also saw the interview with Eduardo Perez and this seems to be a very smart young man, understanding quite well the hitter-pitcher battle that is at the heart of the game, how they are trying to get him out, and willing and able to adjust.

I don't invest in such young phenoms until they have proved their worth and are in their mid to late 30's downslide, when demand has usually diminished, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Best of luck in your collecting,


Larry

[MattyC]

I think Judge has made great strides and adjustments, in terms of his approach at the plate. That is what you want to see in a young player. He's laying off the low outside pitch that got him so much last year. His power to all fields is electrifying. His attitude is affable and humble. He also has an intangible star quality. If he hits 40+ HRs and keeps the average and K's respectable, the pinstripes and the accompanying media stage will combine to make him quite popular.

[packs]

I have been completely surprised by Judge's season thus far. He looks like a totally different hitter. The same power is there but he's able to make more of it with his ability to limit his poor swings and stay off the garbage. I did not expect him to be able to do that at all. Don't know if it'll hold up but he's really opened my eyes at least.

[megalimey]

Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?
Last year it was Trevor story who got off to a blazing start his stuff was lazor hot
Now you cannot give it away. Give me a dead hall of Famer any day and twice on sundays . you want to gamble Kentucky Derby tomorrow at least it will be over in 2 minutes, verses waiting for a pipe dream

[D. Bergin]

I certainly under-estimated Judge. I understand he was drafted more as an athlete and on his potential rather then his actual skills at the time, as he came to baseball a little late.

Looks like things finally started to click for him. He always had the pop, but just had problems with the contact.

Still, I imagine it's a short term thing with him. He still got off to a late start, and would have to completely dominate for a long time to pay off if you plan on holding on to his cards. Short term, I guess it will just be a timing thing, much like penny stocks.

Also, don't forget. Big guys like him get hurt. He seems athletic now, but it's only a matter of time before back and knee issues kick in and he gets relegated to DH or 1st Base duty.

I'd be happy if he could be our Jay Buhner for the next 5 years or so. Luckily the Yankees didn't trade him for Ken Phelps before he finally blossomed.

[packs]

His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.

[yankeesjetsfan]

Love watching this kid player play. Night and day from the player last season. Slumping a bit from the hot start, but I don't feel that will last long. He is helping in the field and showed off the arm throwing out Billy Hamilton at second the other night. Future is bright for him.

Mike

[ls7plus]

Saw a couple of his games in the last few days. They are starting to get him out consistently with pitches breaking down and in (circle changes from righties; sliders from lefties), with a high fastball or two mixed in. Will have to see if he adjusts. I still wouldn't buy him in any event until he has proven his worth over a large major league sample size, is in his 30's down-slide phase, and the speculative and transient demand has migrated to the newest, latest and greatest hot item!

Best of luck and joy in your collecting,

Larry

[bigfanNY]

Well to the OP I hope you did not listen to us and purchased in bulk 2013 autographed Judge cards back when you posted this. I could not pull the trigger and only have one Rookie Judge auto (Cost $27) and another Woulda Coulda Shoulda story ... GOOD CALL ..
J

[ls7plus]

His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.

Ah, the nature of the new card market for up and coming phenoms! Initial demand is primarily speculative and transient, with card dealers bursting at the seams to take advantage of that "must have" urge within us. Better to wait until they are in their mid to late 30's downslide and this type of demand will have moved on to the latest and greatest. Their cards will still be out there, and likely much cheaper (see the Topps 1990 No-Name on Front Frank Thomas rookie for comparison purposes. When first discovered and subsequently popularized in the early '90's, Beckett had it for $1600 in near mint. By 2009, a NrMt to Mt example could be had for less than $600. Just a few months ago, however, one in PSA 3 went for over $2K on ebay. Moral of the story? Buy when demand is lowest, but before the player makes the HOF).

Good luck in your collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Saw Judge hit a 457 footer last weekend versus the Astros to dead center. Mantle type power (almost) with Wheaties box, all-American good looks. Hope he makes good, as it would be great for the game!

Best wishes,

Larry

[packs]

He's got a really good story too. I hadn't realized he was adopted. I hope he partners with some foundations to help out other kids in his situation. We need more Curtis Grandersons and Adam Joneses in the game.

[yankeesjetsfan]

If you guys haven't seen it, Judge made an appearance on Jimmy Fallon the other day where he put on a pair of glasses and spoke with Yankee fan who did not recognize him. Pretty funny.

Mike

[ls7plus]

He's got a really good story too. I hadn't realized he was adopted. I hope he partners with some foundations to help out other kids in his situation. We need more Curtis Grandersons and Adam Joneses in the game.

Didn't know that! He was very down to earth, humble and unassuming in his recent interview with Eduardo Perez. A definite credit to the game!

Happy Collecting,

Larry

[irv]

If you guys haven't seen it, Judge made an appearance on Jimmy Fallon the other day where he put on a pair of glasses and spoke with Yankee fan who did not recognize him. Pretty funny.

Mike

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk :D

[ls7plus]

Looks like Mantle in his prime from the right side after this weekend--3 HR's, including a 495-footer Sunday (yes, Mantle did hit the ball that hard and far)! Hope he keeps it up, as he is really a high quality guy.

Regards, Larry

[D. Bergin]

Unbelievable what this kid is doing. I would have traded him for a serviceable starter 6 months ago. Hitting for a high average and OBP to while playing solid defense. Glad I was wrong.

It's like he just learned to hit recently. In hindsight it makes sense as baseball was never really his first sport until he got drafted.

Could Judge, Severino, Sanchez be the next Petitte, Jeter, Posada? Aaron Hicks a late blooming Bernie Williams?

[MattyC]

I am loving watching this kid play ball. His mental approach, oppo power, personality, star power. My kids love him, too. Been having as much of a blast collecting his cards lately. He has quite the bright future, on the Yankee stage.

[packs]

I wonder if it kills Cano to see Judge rise as high as he has. There's no doubt being a Yankee adds to his star while Cano, probably the best second baseman of his generation, languishes in Seattle.

[D. Bergin]

I wonder if it kills Cano to see Judge rise as high as he has. There's no doubt being a Yankee adds to his star while Cano, probably the best second baseman of his generation, languishes in Seattle.


I doubt Judge bothers him, but the fact that Castro and Gregorius are doing so well from the middle infield positions might bother him a bit.

Not just the young guys already up, but the Yankees have made some incredible trades the past several years, picking up Gregorius, Castro, Aaron Hicks and Tyler Clippard for what amounts to a bag of rocks.

Adam Warren and Gleyber Torres for loaning out Aroldis Chapman for a few months.

A part of me wishes they had kept Andrew Miller, though they got some nice future talent in return.

[packs]

I just mean that Cano would be the face of the Yankees right now if he were still with the Yankees. I wonder if it bothers him that Judge is Mr. Yankee while he's not really anyone to the baseball world right now. He was the heir apparent after Jeter.

[D. Bergin]

I just mean that Cano would be the face of the Yankees right now if he were still with the Yankees. I wonder if it bothers him that Judge is Mr. Yankee while he's not really anyone to the baseball world right now. He was the heir apparent after Jeter.


Yeah, hard to turn down the security of a 10 year contract I imagine. As much as I would have liked the Yankees used their money to keep Cano instead of signing Ellsbury, I'm glad they didn't try to match the Mariners ridiculous offer.

In less then a few years they will probably be happy to be able to unload his contract for a Top 500 Single A prospect.

[Big Six]

I don't miss Cano...pretty sure he didn't do it the right way if you know what I mean. Judge seems to be the right guy at the right time...and there doesn't seem to be any doubt that the guy is as natural as they come.


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[packs]

What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?

[Big Six]

What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?



It means that I have my suspicions he cheated. And I don't miss him. Happy with Didi and Starling...and will be happy with Torres or Mateo. Love what the Yankees have done to make over this team...and they did it quickly. And they seem to have done it right.


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[packs]

I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.

BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.

[Big Six]

I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.



BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.



There have been hints of steroid use dating back to 2012. I truly believe the Yankees were happy to see the Mariners offer ridiculous money, allowing them to "let him walk away." I'm not saying he wasn't/isn't a fantastic player...I just believe that there is an awful lot of smoke that he cheated. This was really one of the first times that the Yankees showed restraint and I think that was in no small part due to their concerns for why he was playing as well as he was...


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[packs]

That seems way off base to me. The Yankees didn't let him walk away. They got priced out when they gave a huge contract to Ellsbury instead. I think you're revising history a little bit. They wanted to sign Cano too, just not for the years or the dollars. It's my opinion Cano got miffed when they gave the years and dollars to Ellsbury but not him. At the time the Yankees were desperate to unseat Boston and signing away their premier player at the time made sense. But I don't think for a second they didn't want to sign Cano.

Also, of the two of them, only Cano is living up to the money. 2 time all star and 2 top 10 MVP finishes. Can't name anything Ellsbury has done.

[Big Six]

You're presupposing that I don't think he's a good player...he is a great player. I just believe that there was concern that he was tainted. And so it was easier to go after Ellsbury, hurt the Sox, and distance themselves from Cano. To your point, the Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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[D. Bergin]

Jeez, if anybody was cheating it was Jacob Ellsbury for that one outlier year he used to get his big contract.

Take that one year out of his career and he's essentially an injury prone Brett Gardner, at twice the cost of Gardner.

[Big Six]

Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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[Peter_Spaeth]

That seems way off base to me. The Yankees didn't let him walk away. They got priced out when they gave a huge contract to Ellsbury instead. I think you're revising history a little bit. They wanted to sign Cano too, just not for the years or the dollars. It's my opinion Cano got miffed when they gave the years and dollars to Ellsbury but not him. At the time the Yankees were desperate to unseat Boston and signing away their premier player at the time made sense. But I don't think for a second they didn't want to sign Cano.

Also, of the two of them, only Cano is living up to the money. 2 time all star and 2 top 10 MVP finishes. Can't name anything Ellsbury has done.

In 2013 Ellsbury hit 9 HR with 53 RBI and a .298 BA. He had a nice year, but he was not their premier player. Ortiz and Pedroia were.

[ls7plus]

There have been hints of steroid use dating back to 2012. I truly believe the Yankees were happy to see the Mariners offer ridiculous money, allowing them to "let him walk away." I'm not saying he wasn't/isn't a fantastic player...I just believe that there is an awful lot of smoke that he cheated. This was really one of the first times that the Yankees showed restraint and I think that was in no small part due to their concerns for why he was playing as well as he was...


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If you read the book on A-Roid that came out a year or so ago, there is a reference to a text from Yankee management to A-Roid that Cano needs some 'roids. That, coupled with his initial fall-off in production upon reaching Seattle (which he attributed to stomach problems, if I recall correctly--yeah, right!), is what triggered the hints. I simply believe that that is one genie you never, ever get entirely back in the bottle. At least with the grueling 162-game schedule, + spring training + playoffs. Lenny Dystra, stated in his book that he found that his body could not stand up to the strain, simply picked a physician out of the phone book (sure he did!) and asked for something to help him cope. The doctor prescribed anabolic steroids, and Dystra is very straightforward about it. I really don't know if the situation I still believe persists (does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one using the steroid he tested positive for?) is good or bad--it is just the way it is.

My humble regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry

[packs]

In 2013 Ellsbury hit 9 HR with 53 RBI and a .298 BA. He had a nice year, but he was not their premier player. Ortiz and Pedroia were.

He was the big free agent though. Pedroia and Ortiz weren't free agents. Boston had just won the World Series. The entire league wanted Ellsbury, which is why the Yankees paid what they did. You might be revising history too.

[D. Bergin]

What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry


I don't think any of those guys are particularly durable, so plenty of room for a 4th outfielder and platoon/pinch hit situations I think.

The more flexibility the better. Not that you want your $20 million dollar guy to be your 4th outfielder, but we've paid more then that for A-Rod to essentially ride the bench or miss entire seasons.

[rjackson44]

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

[MattyC]

Being so immersed in PreWar and vintage, I had long forgotten the thrill and sheer fun of chasing the key cards of a current star. Judge is a real positive jolt for Yankee fans of all ages right now, and fans of baseball as well.

Pivoting to the value discussion, bought a bunch of his Blue Heritage Autos at the $750 price point, and finally added the Red Ink variation yesterday.

After the 2013 Chrome and the 2017 Heritage autos, I'm a big fan of the Topps Series 1 1987 style auto card, seems scarce relative to the current crop.

The Topps Archives cards are also very cool. I really dig how they smartly embrace the old 1983 design; creates inherent appeal for us ancient 40-yr olds who collected as kids back then.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's fun, but it's also pure speculation. There was a similar mania for Strasburg rookies that I recall.

[packs]

I missed the boat on Judge but I'm hoping Chance Adams and Blake Rutherford live up to their hype too. Both are relatively cheap pick ups at the moment. Adams has really flown under the radar.

[D. Bergin]

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊


That's way, way smarter then the time I bought up about 15 Michael Jordan Rookies for about $5 each, and then sold them a week later for about $20 each, back in the later 80's.

Still kicking myself for that and the case of 1984 Topps Football I sold for 20 bucks a box. :D

[ls7plus]

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

Congrats! Reminds me of when I was buying nice McGwire rookies in 1992 (about a dozen, as I recall, each purchased separately and selected for sharp corners and centering) for $10-$15, and selling them at the '98 National for $60-$80. It was amazing how many dealers had signs posted that they were buying McGwire.

Happy collecting,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Each year there are 25 or more highly rated prospects. You read about them and it sounds like they are all practically in the HOF. My guess is more people are losing at the speculation game than winning.

[ullmandds]

Oh thats nothing...I remember the time I bought up like 27 bernie williams rookies...and maybe 10 gerald williams rookies...and a few dozen pedro martinez rookies...and...oh wait!

[rjackson44]

the new stuff is like going to a casino .the minute it arrives sell .well the following week a new product is out and that ends that .I got lucky with LeBron chromes topps 2003 and I was told to buy judge ,,who knew ,,.now watch him get hurt.i have 35 psa 10 lebrons not for sale ..got them cheap and then graded them ..but I wont tell you about jj hardy rookies lol

[Peter_Spaeth]

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

[irv]

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many! :eek:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron+judge+rookie+card&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwjik_n9o8DUAhVH34MKHTraDkAQsAQIUA&biw=1280&bih=591&dpr=1.5

[rjackson44]

Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please

[irv]

Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please

You certainly have a pile, and no doubt you will make a pile of money some day, but if I were to guess, there were far fewer of those Lebron's around than there were Judge's?
http://www.beckett.com/news/aaron-judge-rookie-cards/?ref=BOBEmail&utm_source=email&utm_medium=VR&utm_campaign=15-06-2017-BOB&utm_content=dale.irvin@rogers.com

[rjackson44]

Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio

[irv]

Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio

All is well, Octavio, thanks for asking.

Hope all is well with you as well.

E-mail/address sent.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If I was sitting on a bunch of LeBrons I would sell some, I don't see there being a whole lot of upside left.

[Peter_Spaeth]

[QUOTE=irv;1671252]I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many! :eek:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron+judge+rookie+card&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwjik_n9o8DUAhVH34MKHTraDkAQsAQIUA&biw=1280&bih=591&dpr=1.5[/QUOTE


They are ALL his rookie plus the 125 that haven't been released yet in 2017. Not to mention the eight different color refractors and prisms and five different color ink autographs.

[packs]

If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?

[Peter_Spaeth]

If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?

I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.

[packs]

But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.

[rjackson44]

Hi Peter I'm going to take your advice I got offered insane amount for all but declined hope he goes to the lakers lol

[irv]

But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.

If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.

[MattyC]

Packs,

That is a really astute and interesting observation regarding PreWar back premiums and the analogy to some of today's variations.

What some miss is that not all modern collecting is for value and resale, to be dumped/sold when there is a profit to be taken, or to be hidden in shame if value dips. Just as with PreWar and vintage, collectors can collect because we are really into the player. That is, after all, what collecting is supposed to be about.

For example, when I was a kid, I bought and loved Mattingly, Strawberry, Gooden, etc. I bought and collected and loved having those cards not because they went up or down in value in a Beckett or CCP guide, but because they were "my guys," who I rooted for with heart. When I would wake up in the morning, I would check the box scores to see how my favorite guys did. I own those same cards today, and thoroughly enjoy having them in my collection— despite the fact that they are not worth thousands and the players did not make the Hall of Fame.

Funny thing is, as a much older 'kid' now, I do the same exact thing. I've bought both the expensive and non-expensive cards of my current favorites like Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Montgomery, Severino, etc., with the endeavor being to 'Collect'em all' as the hobby saying goes. Does that play into the companies printing variations? Sure. No different than collecting in the 80s played into me wanting an 86 Sportflic of Mattingly or the 84FU Gooden. And the fun and enjoyment is there from collecting a player you like, whether he becomes a HOFer or not, and whether the cards become worth money, or worth nothing.

In my modern splurging lately, I've learned that today we can have many officially designated RC's with the RC logo, and then there is usually a player's earlier Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto card.

Much as there is debate among PreWar collectors over what card is so-and-so's rookie card, the same dialogue exists in the modern realm. Some guys view the Bowman Chrome as a rookie, others view it as a Minor League RC or something akin to an XRC. Some like only cards with the official RC logo for their rookies. And then there are guys who want to collect all the cards of their player.

Similarly, back in '84, there were guys who were satisfied with Darryl Strawberry's 84T. Others felt their collections needed to add the expensive 83T. Still others felt a need to add the Donruss and Fleer 84 issues. I remember encountering the 1985T #1 Draft Pick card of Strawberry, or the 1986T Gooden Record Breaker or the 1986 Fleer 'in action' cards, and I wanted to add them. The same way I see the 1960 style Archives Judge Auto and the 1983 style auto and want to add them to my others. Player collecting, especially of stars, has a long history of leading collectors down a dizzying path— just look at all the cards in a Mickey Mantle Master Set, LOL.

Ultimately, as always, it comes down to, "Collect what and who we like." If someone wants to pay a handsome premium for a Gold Refractor of Gleyber Torres or a Superfactor of Judge or a Lenox Back of a T206 non HOFer or a Pancho Herrer or a centered card that is usually found OC, they should go for it. If a collector buys what he wants and he's happy adding to his collection, it's never stupid or insane; it's always a good choice— because life is way too short and we can't take the cash with us.

[Peter_Spaeth]

What I find confusing about the modern RC designations is that nobody seems to question, for example, that the 1992 Bowman of Mariano Rivera is his RC, even though it depicts him in street clothes and was issued 3 years before he put on a major league uniform. Or the 85 McGwire on Team USA. But many of the same people would say that the Team USA issues of Kershaw, Harper, and others are not RCs, and the apparent rationale is that they were issued before they appeared in the majors. I am sure there is an answer but I don't get it.

And Matt, yeah of course ultimately collect what you like, but debates about value are also an "inheritant" part of the hobby.

[packs]

If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.

This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.

[irv]

This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.

If all that has been said in the thread didn't help you to understand, then I am at a loss on how to explain it further to you.

No disrespect. I'm just not good at explaining things I guess so I will leave that to other's who are.

[packs]

There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.

[MattyC]

Packs, you are dropping some solid points here-- never saw it that way prior to your posts. An example that there is quality, insightful user content on the internet after all!

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me there is a big difference between being scarce as a result of the way history unfolded and being scarce by design to create demand. Just my two cents, even if it doesn't qualify for Matt's praise. :)

[packs]

How do you feel about high numbers then? Or SP's? Wouldn't a 52 high number or a 48 Leaf SP be an example of a manufactured scarcity? What about the 33 Goudey Lajoie?

[Peter_Spaeth]

How do you feel about high numbers then? Or SP's? Wouldn't a 52 high number or a 48 Leaf SP be an example of a manufactured scarcity? What about the 33 Goudey Lajoie?

The Lajoie I think is the closest. 52T I don't think was short printed in order to create demand, I think they just dumped product because they couldn't sell it. High numbers in general I think it's the same, late in the season the demand just wasn't there. I am not that familiar with the story behind the Leaf SPs. If they were short printed to sell more product with set builders chasing them, then yeah that's similar.

[bn2cardz]

Today it is a business and back then it was as well. If you think they wouldn't have used refractor technology if they had it then I would point you to the t204. When new technology came about they used it.

If you don't believe there was "manufactured" scarcity I would just point you to the 1933/34 Goudey Lajoie as a prime example that there was. (I see this was pointed out before I got back to finishing this comment)

[irv]

There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.

Well, although it seems moot to you, the fact remains that people are drawn to rarity/scarcity of HOF's who's card/pictures are hard to come by.
Judge has a ton of RC's. If he only had one or 2, then you would see those prices going through the roof, but, unlike Cobb, for example, people have a ton of other choices, especially if they cannot afford to obtain a true RC.

Also, Cobb is famous for various reasons, while Judge, for example is new and is just starting out. People have him in the hall already, lol, and many are speculating and the prices reflect that, but have him get injured and have a non HOF shortened career and he will be forgotten about as will his cards and what people once paid for them.

[packs]

My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.

[MattyC]

Irv— perhaps I'm misreading your point, but who here is comparing Aaron Judge to Ty Cobb? The sheer premise is ludicrous.

Also, your logic— that someone who has a "non HOF" career will be "forgotten"— is pretty harsh and deeply flawed. There are plenty of players who did not make the hall and are beloved by their fans, plenty of numbers retired by teams that aren't in the HOF. It is not HOF or bust for the players, and it's not that way for their fans, either. Maybe for card value speculators, yet that's its own realm.

[Peter_Spaeth]

My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.

I bet there are 500-1000 Mike Trout cards on this planet for every vintage Cobb, already. And that may be low. No way of knowing that, just a guess.

[MattyC]

My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.

Agreed. Look at how many cards Mantle had. Ruth wasn't too shabby either in that department; I remember first learning of all his Goudeys, then the M101. Then the Oxford. The Frederick Foto. The Boston Store. Collins McCarthy. The different Caramels. Baltimore News. Strip cards. Headin' Home cards...

I got dizzy, yet then waded in, learned about the issues, decided what I liked and why, over time appreciating ones I slept on, and it's all good. So I don't look at a player having a plethora of issues as a pejorative thing. No one is forcing us to buy them all. As you said, the company can print what they want, yet the collectors ultimately set the demand.

Would I as one random collector prefer the streamlined era when there was one 1975 Brett from Topps and that was it? Personally, yeah, I am a minimalist by nature and abhor clutter. That said, I also like to collect/complete checklists, so that aspect of the modern landscape appeals to me and is fun.

[Peter_Spaeth]

758 Trout cards in PSA Master Set, 242 Mantle, and Trout of course is early in his career.

[irv]

Irv— perhaps I'm misreading your point, but who here is comparing Aaron Judge to Ty Cobb? The sheer premise is ludicrous.

Also, your logic— that someone who has a "non HOF" career will be "forgotten"— is pretty harsh and deeply flawed. There are plenty of players who did not make the hall and are beloved by their fans, plenty of numbers retired by teams that aren't in the HOF. It is not HOF or bust for the players, and it's not that way for their fans, either. Maybe for card value speculators, yet that's its own realm.

Well, because the original poster was wondering if Judge was a good investment, I figure it was a good choice to use his name as a comparison.

My other words were tongue in cheek so to speak as this is also a possibility whether it is Judge or another player. I know other players, such as Minoso, who is not in the HOF, is also popular, but his card prices pale in value compared to if he was.

Like Peter just said, Trout likely has 500-1000 cards for everyone available of Cobb.
That is how the market is, like it or not. 1 of 1's, refractors, etc, will never, imo, reach the levels price wise of Cobb, or anyone else for that matter, who is a HOF, whos cards/picture/memorabilia are rare and hard to come by.
Here is one article of many: http://www.cardboardconnection.com/why-sports-cards-early-90s-worthless

[MattyC]

Irv, gotcha; I think we are therefore talking apples and oranges here, or more like apples and cars.

It seems you were talking about monetary value/investment, while I was talking about the sheer number of cards not being something inherently pejorative. In my opinion, so what if Trout has 758 cards? How is that something negative? Variety is the spice of life, LOL. Some guys settle down with one woman, some prefer many, no one's right or wrong. Just different styles. Back in the day there were fewer choices in the make of your car, or your phone carrier, where you got your news, what channel to watch on TV, etc. In this day and age, choice has exploded. That's neither good nor bad.

[packs]

Yeah I'm just not understanding why having so many cards is such an issue.

[irv]

Yeah I'm just not understanding why having so many cards is such an issue.

It is not an issue, but if I understood you correctly, you were wondering why some of the newer cards weren't as valuable as others like Cobb?

I had about 4 hrs sleep last night, so it won't be surprising to hear I might have everything backwards, but that is what I thought you were saying? :confused:

[orly57]

I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't understand the autograph thing either. As you point out, the signature itself has almost no intrinsic value, so it's just another way to artificially distinguish one group of a player's million plus rookie cards from another group. And what drives it home for me is that they now have different color signatures, some of which apparently are worth more. The RED autographs, on some issues anyhow, are far more valuable than the BLUE autographs. Uh, ok, sure, whatever. I am sure some marketing guru will come up with even further differentiation of autographs. How about an ultra super rare version where the player actually writes out his full name instead of a chicken scratch of his initials? Or maybe they could add the date and call it the ultra super rare "with date" version? It all seems artificial to me.

And yeah, baseball prospects are notoriously unpredictable. And a few good months, or even a few good years, doesn't mean anything either in this most difficult of sports.

[irv]

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

Very well said! :)

[MattyC]

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.


Hey Orly, why don't you let modern collectors or people like myself who will buy a modern player's cards decide how to spend our hard-earned money.

I could buy pieces like your Cobb postcard, but it doesn't interest me or appeal to me in the least. Do I enter your sandbox and verbally piss on your choices? No.

On the money topic, not everyone is in this for future investment, some people want to collect modern players they root for. And for those who are after a monetary return, people have done fine on the great current players, too.

You say modern Trout collectors will "learn the hard way." Ooh. What harsh lesson will this be? You think the kid or guy who paid a few hundred for a Trout will, in decades from now, walk around rueing the choice because the card dropped in value?

In 2027, will you walk the National with schadenfreude, hoping to hear the words: "Oh my God, my Trout was once worth $800. Now it's worth $200! My life is over! What a hard life lesson! If only I listened to that guy and bought a Cobb instead of the player I rooted for in my present life!"

Or what about the guy who can afford to drop a few grand or even ten grand on a Trout or Judge or Seager or Bellinger now? Will he learn the hard way if it drops to half its value in fifteen years? I don't think so.

- If he dropped 10k on a card and it loses nearly all its value, it's a loss the guy can shrug at. That's not a life-changing sum for someone with that cash to spend on a card.
- If he dropped 10k because he loves the player, he still loves the card, it's likely his favorite card or among them.

And if you think Judge is Kevin Maas, you've betrayed yourself as someone who doesn't know the game of baseball. Their approaches at the plate are different. Their ability to make adjustments is different. Their ability to hit for average and contact is different. As a cautionary anecdote about purchasing the cards of hot rookies that may not develop into bona fide stars, then yes, there's a comparison to be drawn— for now.

MC

[MattyC]

a few good months, or even a few good years, doesn't mean anything either in this most difficult of sports.

Yes, it is enormously difficult.

But you really think a few good "years" doesn't mean anything?

To whom— certainly not the players. Real baseball players take it game to game, at bat to at bat, pitch to pitch. They don't live their lives thinking, "Gee, I have to make the HOF." So the players certainly wouldn't agree with that.

The fans? I think fans of a team or player don't live in a "HOF or bust" space either. Fans will love lots of non HOF worthy players.

So how does a few good months or years mean nothing? The game is enormously hard. If anything, in such an environment having a great season is something a player or fan would love and value.

The only realm where that statement could apply is the realm of selling a baseball card for money.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Of course we don't know what the future holds in store for Judge, but the analogy to Maas as a "cautionary tale" is fairly apt.

https://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/08/22/cautionary-tale-yankee-kevin-maas/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yes, it is enormously difficult.

But you really think a few good "years" doesn't mean anything?

To whom— certainly not the players. Real baseball players take it game to game, at bat to at bat, pitch to pitch. They don't live their lives thinking, "Gee, I have to make the HOF." So the players certainly wouldn't agree with that.

The fans? I think fans of a team or player don't live in a "HOF or bust" space either. Fans will love lots of non HOF worthy players.

So how does a few good months or years mean nothing? The game is enormously hard. If anything, in such an environment having a great season is something a player or fan would love and value.

The only realm where that statement could apply is the realm of selling a baseball card for money.

Yes, of course, but that's the context we are discussing, namely the values we are seeing on some of the modern cards. Or at least that was the context in which I made the statement.

[MattyC]

Gotcha, Peter, makes sense in that context. Wasn't sure since a prior post was referencing price-performances of guys who had relatively brief flashes of greatness.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.

[MattyC]

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year.

I completely agree with all of that. Future greatness is totally priced in by the modern collectors, and it kind of forces a fan who wants to collect a current player to choose when to hop on the train, so to speak, and buy.

As a huge pure fan of some modern guys, I'm forced to think, "OK, I want to collect this guy, so do I pony up now and hope he doesn't continue to soar? Or do I wait?"

For me, my love of a player or card will always trump any remote sense of fiscal responsibility, and so I'll splurge when the itch to collect hits. I've got my zone of comfort in terms of how high I can go for a Judge or Sanchez card and not care a lick if it tanks; for others that price tag can be a 10k superfractor or the like.

What I've found with collecting present guys is there's a thrill unique to it, an aspect that's nice to feel— in terms of the unknown; we're on the fan's journey with a player in the active present; we don't know how his career will turn out; so we root. And rooting is a blast. That's not to say it's better than what we get with our much older cards, it's just different and cool in its own way. I think too many times on here collecting is treated as some zero sum game, where it's this card or collecting ethos VERSUS that one. Doesn't have to be that way. Especially among people who all ostensibly love the same sport and the collecting of cards.

A modern collector of his favorite young player may be buying a fairly expensive ticket on a fun ride that will end— like any rollercoaster or hand of blackjack, LOL— or he may wind up with some cards he loves that also sustain or grow their value. Cool either way.

[orly57]

I didn't say TROUT collectors will rue the day, I said guys who chase prospects THINKING THEY WILL ALL BECOME TROUT will rue the day. Trout is a beast. But the more cards and autos they release of him, the more they will become devalued.

You don't like my comparison to Maas because of their differing approach at the plate. Way to miss the point. Buy whatever you want. I honestly don't care. If you can't take advice with a grain of salt, and feel you need to go into attack mode, then you aren't worth my time or advice. I will grab my cane and head back to the pre-war section where I belong.

[MattyC]

If you can't take advice with a grain of salt

I can certainly take someone's words with a grain of salt. In fact that's the very first time I went off like that in years in this community.

Because you didn't dispense them with a grain of salt.

You used the words and phrases:

"I've been screaming this from the rooftops... I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really?... So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea... absurd. ...They will learn the hard way."

We only have our chosen words in a setting like this, and those chosen words certainly land hard— at least to the point where they wouldn't engender being taken with a grain of salt.

[orly57]

You seem like an EXTREMELY educated person. You must grant me two things: 1. Mike trouts are one in a million. Collectors will spend way too much money chasing prospects that simply will not pan out. As Peter stated, a guy dropped a million bucks on a Strasbourg! It was cute when I chased Brien Taylor and Todd Van Poppel for 10 or 20 bucks, but it's dangerous to chase them in the five-figure range.
2. If the same card is printed with a minor difference in color, and they stamp 1/1000, 1/100, 1/50, 1/10, 1/5, and 1/1 on them, there are 1,166 of that card. The different color or stamp used by the card company to entice and trick people doesn't change that fact. This is nothing but a marketing ploy used to fool people into the illusion of rarity.

If you like modern players, by all means collect them. This hobby is meant to collect what we love. My anger is directed at the card companies and Beckett for propelling this fraud. Collect what you love. I'm just trying to share my experience from 31 years of collecting cards and watching can't-miss prospects fail. New generations always tell older generations that their experience is different, and we just don't understand. But the reality is that things don't change much, they just come in different packages.

[irv]

Hey Orly, why don't you let modern collectors or people like myself who will buy a modern player's cards decide how to spend our hard-earned money.

I could buy pieces like your Cobb postcard, but it doesn't interest me or appeal to me in the least. Do I enter your sandbox and verbally piss on your choices? No.

On the money topic, not everyone is in this for future investment, some people want to collect modern players they root for. And for those who are after a monetary return, people have done fine on the great current players, too.

You say modern Trout collectors will "learn the hard way." Ooh. What harsh lesson will this be? You think the kid or guy who paid a few hundred for a Trout will, in decades from now, walk around rueing the choice because the card dropped in value?

In 2027, will you walk the National with schadenfreude, hoping to hear the words: "Oh my God, my Trout was once worth $800. Now it's worth $200! My life is over! What a hard life lesson! If only I listened to that guy and bought a Cobb instead of the player I rooted for in my present life!"

Or what about the guy who can afford to drop a few grand or even ten grand on a Trout or Judge or Seager or Bellinger now? Will he learn the hard way if it drops to half its value in fifteen years? I don't think so.

- If he dropped 10k on a card and it loses nearly all its value, it's a loss the guy can shrug at. That's not a life-changing sum for someone with that cash to spend on a card.
- If he dropped 10k because he loves the player, he still loves the card, it's likely his favorite card or among them.

And if you think Judge is Kevin Maas, you've betrayed yourself as someone who doesn't know the game of baseball. Their approaches at the plate are different. Their ability to make adjustments is different. Their ability to hit for average and contact is different. As a cautionary anecdote about purchasing the cards of hot rookies that may not develop into bona fide stars, then yes, there's a comparison to be drawn— for now.

MC

I think this thread is getting way out of hand and it's original theme has been lost along the way?

My replies, to Packs, and I think others like Orly's were written to show/tell that "investing" in players such as Judge is not necessarily a wise investment, especially with the prices it currently costs to jump in.

No one is saying you're stupid to purchase these cards if you want them, but are saying, if you are purchasing for investment purposes, then it is not a wise investment at this point in their careers.

Like I mentioned earlier, I could care less what people collect nor how many cards are out there, but when someone can't understand when modern, newer cards of players who's amount of cards go on forever, aren't as valuable as some older, much harder to find, a legend if you will, player who is already in the HOF, then I don't know what else to say. :confused:

[MattyC]

Orly,

I'd grant you all of that, and certainly agree with all of that.

All I took umbrage with was the perceived sentiment that anyone collecting the likes of an emerging talent is somehow making a big mistake, or being duped like a child or a fool.

[orly57]

Orly,

I'd grant you all of that, and certainly agree with all of that.

All I took umbrage with was the perceived sentiment that anyone collecting the likes of an emerging talent is somehow making a big mistake, or being duped like a child or a fool.

I find that when intelligent people discuss things, they agree more than they initially thought. Here is a good example of things coming in different packages. 1991 Wildcard football. This Favre 20 was supposed to be worth 20x the value of a standard Favre. The 1000 was 1,000 times more valuable. Scammers don't re-invent the wheel, they just modify the scam. Sure, a Favre collector will pay more for the rarity of the 1000 card, but Not because of some magic multiplier. It's an ultra-rare Favre rookie. Favre is an all-time great hall of famer. It's only a 2k card. So if a player the status of Favre has an ultra rare rookie going for 2k, what is the upside on guys who don't have HOF careers?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Here's my $20 Favre rookie. None graded higher lol.

[poytor]

Frank Howard was 6-7, he had a decent career, 1960 AL ROY, and won a ring with the 63 Dodgers.

[Rich Klein]

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

[packs]

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

[frankbmd]

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

I think I just heard Babe Ruth roll over in his grave.:rolleyes:

[D. Bergin]

Frank Howard is a decent comparison. He won ROY at age 23, but had his real breakout year at age 25. Judge walks more (and also strikes out more), at this point in his career, but Howard built his Walk numbers up as his career went on.

I would guess Judges batting average will eventually fall in line to around Howards levels as his career goes on. I have a feeling he's having a Norm Cash like outlier year, as far as his B.A. goes.. I think Frank Howard is a much more realistic goal for him then Miguel Cabrera.

No shame in that. Frank had some fantastic years.

[chaddurbin]

if yankees make playoffs i'd keep your judges until october, if not sell by september. could just be a huge outlier year, his age and minor league track record suggest a solid OF with power, not barry bonds with the cream and clear. but he is playing in NY, for the yankees, so of course he's the second coming and better than slice bread. i expect him to settle down just like betts and lindor...fine solid players but probably not the superstars and #1 prospects. unless you're a freak like trout, some you just see coming for awhile and hear the hype like harper and correa.

we got our own "judge" out here in cody bellinger, and he plays late at night so doesn't get the same hype...but he's 4 years younger with a sweet swing. of course my concern is he gets homer-happy and goes the way of joc pederson, or he can learn and adjust and be corey seager with massive power.

[Rich Klein]

In terms of long term investing, 21 is a good age to give a shot for. 25 not so much

[packs]

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

.288 in 1979. Some would call that close.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

Boggs was 24. The brilliant Red Sox management kept him in the minors for years lol.

[ls7plus]

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

Rich, with all due respect, I think the PED genie is one you never, ever get back in the bottle with the current salary levels. Does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one taking Nandrolone? My bet is that an effective masking agent was developed, which Marte thought he was getting, but someone sold him a bill of goods instead. I don't think we will ever know for certain who is or has been using PED's. I separate baseball history into two eras in this regard: pre-1985 and post-1985, but without any real prejudice--the PED era simply represents the conditions under which the game has and IMHO IS being played. I, for one, really enjoyed seeing Mark McGwire play. Just don't try to directly compare the two or players from different eras. That's simply apples and oranges.

Regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.

Rocky Colavito, Cesar Cedeno, Ted Kluzewski, and on and on. Initial demand is speculative and transient. The real time to buy, when such demand has moved on to the latest and greatest phenoms, is when these guys have established a real HOF resume and are in their 30's downslide. Barring injury, though, I do like Judge and believe he will last--love the way he drives the ball from left center to right center, like Mantle did, and stays inside the pitch, with that lead shoulder following, not leading, his hands, so he doesn't open up too soon (unlike Harper, who violently yanks the lead shoulder open to start the swing, which is why he can serve it to but has no real power to left--once that shoulder is open and long gone, the only way to get the bat to the outside pitch is let it linger behind and drag it through the zone). Time alone will tell.


Hi, Pete,

Larry

[orly57]

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

[MattyC]

"If" a rookie wins MVP and ROY in the same season, while setting the rookie HR record, and chasing a triple crown— that's sounds like one heck of a talent to me.

It would be one season, yes— yet every player starts with just one season.

If the needle/haystack is in reference to how some are looking at Judge, I would respectfully offer that instead of raining on the Aaron Judge parade, why not smile and enjoy a kid who is playing the right way, providing enormous entertainment and excitement— and creating positive energy for both baseball and the card hobby. Not to mention he's showcasing all the physical and mental skills a player needs to keep on raking.

There's a whole journey that is a player's career; fans and collectors can enjoy that journey without worrying what the player's rookie cards will be valued at when their careers are over. And if Mr. Judge can average 33.3 HRs from 25-40, while winning a WS or three along the way, for the biggest market team on earth, all the better. Time will tell. And for many collectors and collector-investors of current/modern players, watching that time play out in the present is something of value in and of itself.

There are movies and books that one has seen and read, and the outcome is known. Those can always be picked up and enjoyed again. Then there is the thrill of watching a story unfold, where you don't know the outcome. That's also enjoyable. These two types of entertainment are not mutually exclusive.

It seems that when we have great young players performing in the present, we're in such a rush to know or determine what their final career counting stats will be. I guess what I am talking about is living in and enjoying the moment. There was a time when Shoeless or Hornsby or Cobb or Ruth or Mantle were young, and people loved collecting them at that time; imagine someone coming along and going, "Man, that Mantle just got terribly injured and ripped his knee apart, and he K's a ton, and they already sent him down once, and I heard he almost quit, why are you wasting your time with him? He won't get 3000 hits. What's his rookie gonna be worth when his career's over?"

* I will add this, since the value topic was brought up: my Aaron Judge cards have thus far gained more value percentage-wise, and at a faster pace, than any vintage piece I've ever owned. That said, as a collector I love all my cards the same.

[packs]

How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.


My post was only in reference to another poster who said a guy who begins his career at 25 doesn't have much of a shot at making the HOF.

As far as "values" go, look at Manny Machado. He's hitting 225 right now. His auto rookie is still selling for a few hundred bucks a piece. So you can't really talk about Thome or Edgar Martinez's rookie cards in respect to the modern rookie card. They were manufactured in the millions vs thousands and then hundreds and then dozens. It's apples to oranges.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Values are really fickle. Just for kicks I bought a couple of Bellingers and literally within a week before I even had them (a few HR later I guess) the same cards were selling for double and even more. Crazy.

[orly57]

Of course the prices of current players will go up quicker than the images of the dead guys. They have one or two big weeks and their cards are buzzing on eBay like the NY stock exchange. The issue is whether or not that young player can sustain that pace over a long period of time. High-risk stocks always give higher yields than lower-risk blue-chips.
And Matty, no one is rooting against Aaron Judge (except Red Sox fans). His sample-size keeps growing and he keeps performing like a stud.

[bn2cardz]

...
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.

[packs]

I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.


Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.

[bn2cardz]

Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

Let me compare Kimbrel's first full seasons (2011 to 2016) to Mariano's equivalent (1997 to 2002). Also keep in mind that Kimbrel's first full season as closer came at age 23 compared to Mariano age 27.

Kimbrel:
391 Games / 380.2 IP
255SV/280SVO = 91.07%
WHIP: .935
ERA: 1.94
SO 606
SO9 14.3


Rivera:
368 Games / 404.1 IP
238SV / 272SVO = 87.5%
WHIP: 1.021
ERA: 2.25
SO 338
SO9 7.5


This isn't to say that Rivera wasn't great, but there is nothing in these stats that would merit someone stating "Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all". I will state it again, Mariano appeared to be the greatest because he came into the position when it was still in its inception. Now, though, player's are groomed for the position. Kimbrel was groomed as are others that will follow him in. I do understand that Kimbrel would have to play 11 more seasons to match Rivera's career but he may be able to accumulate the stats quicker with the pace he is on., but that doesn't change the fact that inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.
His losses became a story, but Kimbrel giving up a hit was considered a bad outing in an ESPN article today:

Craig Kimbrel had a bad outing Thursday.

He actually allowed a hit. http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/80858/real-or-not-kimbrel-more-dominant-than-jansen-lots-and-lots-of-home-runs

[packs]

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

[D. Bergin]

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.


Innings pretty much. Mariano faced more batters and likely did it against better opposition, in tougher ballparks, and also did it right in the heart of the steroid era.

Even then, as a reliever, most weren't running out and buying up Mariano rookie cards. He started old and most expected him to peter out. It wasn't until many years later when people realized what a generational talent he was.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

[yanksfan09]

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

Yea that's the thing. Longevity is key for closers. You see tons of guys have a great 4-8 year stretch maybe but then fall apart. It's hard to remain dominant in the later years. Also, so much of Mariano is his stellar playoff performance.

Kimbrels been great but, It a bit like saying Mike Trout is as good as Ted Williams, just too soon to make any comparison. Not saying it can't happen either though.

[yanksfan09]

This thread needs a little shiny eye candy...

I've been less and less into newer cards over the years and am mostly all vintage but must admit that Aaron Judge has caught my fascination and just "had to have" some of his stuff! As a Yankee fan, this has been awesome to watch, at least for Judge. The crippling recent injuries and rough stretch is another issue altogether! I realize the ride could stop at any time or at least slow down with Judge, and don't advocate buying into Judge right now as any great sure fire long term investment, but sometimes you just need to have fun!

Thankfully I got these early enough in the real crazy run up, think all are probably going for 2x or more what I paid.

[orly57]

Nice cards erick. It does look like he put more effort into signing that ball than he did into signing the cards though. He actually has a real nice signature on that ball.
I have been meaning to ask new-card guys this for a while. Why is it that in modern collecting so many guys have "rookies" in various years. Like Yoan Moncada, for example, has Leaf and Pannini issues in 2015, but also has "rookie" cards from 2016. I've noticed this with quite a few players.

[yanksfan09]

Nice cards erick. It does look like he put more effort into signing that ball than he did into signing the cards though. He actually has a real nice signature on that ball.
I have been meaning to ask new-card guys this for a while. Why is it that in modern collecting so many guys have "rookies" in various years. Like Yoan Moncada, for example, has Leaf and Pannini issues in 2015, but also has "rookie" cards from 2016. I've noticed this with quite a few players.

Yea, that's why I wanted and paid more for that baseball. He signed some baseballs earlier (mine is from 2015) with a full name signature. However, the vast majority are just the A J version, or more recently he's been doing sort of an Aarn J-- version on some but very few are real full name signatures.

I completely don't get the whole RC card definition for new cards. It seems to be different for whoever you talk to. I was just discussing the issue in this thread... http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=241738

Moncada has some 1st cards (which I would consider to be rookies but some do not) in 2015 leaf and maybe another brand? Can't remember. These are unlicensed by MLB I think? I believe Topps has a monopoly on that now, which doesn't seem right to me either.

His first licensed Topps and Bowman cards are from 2016 I believe. And even though he debuted in 2016, his "RC logo" cards (which some modern collectors consider to be rookies) are from 2017 only I think. It's really confusing and makes no sense to me. To me first year cards are rookie cards (as long as they've been signed to an MLB franchise). I can see not calling high school cards Rookie cards, but once a player is signed to a franchise and has a major card issue I don't see how that's not a rookie. It has/had been for years. (1991 chipper jones, 1993 Jeters etc...)

[Peter_Spaeth]

The notion that people pay huge amounts for these chicken scratch illegible autographs (and most of them appear to be that way these days) is odd to me.

[packs]

I don't find anything new about the way people sign their names. Look at Napoleon's signature.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't find anything new about the way people sign their names. Look at Napoleon's signature.

You're just being contrarian. It's obvious that a very high percentage of modern players make zero effort to give you anything resembling a legible signature.

[packs]

I was just kidding about Napoleon but I think the quantity has a lot to do with the quality. You have to sign thousands for all kinds of brands and sets. I'm guessing that affects how you go about signing.

[orly57]

Looks like Dan Prescott put a great deal of effort into his on-card autos.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I was just kidding about Napoleon but I think the quantity has a lot to do with the quality. You have to sign thousands for all kinds of brands and sets. I'm guessing that affects how you go about signing.

No excuse imo. For millions a year, take the time.

[ls7plus]

No excuse imo. For millions a year, take the time.

+1 in a huge way! The players don't seem to realize that without fans willing to foot the bill, there are no "professional" sports. The fans pay the salaries through admissions, concessions, parking and buying the radio and TV sponsors' products. Their teams are just conduits through which that money flows.

Best wishes,

Larry

[packs]

I agree with that but this isn't about players signing for fans, it's about players signing insert cards that number probably in the tens of thousands.

This doesn't really compare but once a week I sign our vendor checks at work. I sign probably 200 checks each time. Even at that low number I've decided to change my signature to make it easier on me.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I agree with that but this isn't about players signing for fans, it's about players signing insert cards that number probably in the tens of thousands.

This doesn't really compare but once a week I sign our vendor checks at work. I sign probably 200 checks each time. Even at that low number I've decided to change my signature to make it easier on me.

And who do the players think are buying the cards? I don't care how many they are asked to sign (and I doubt any given player is asked to sign tens of thousands), they are getting paid so much money they should take the time to sign cleanly and legibly.

I mean look at this it's a disgrace.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Justin-Verlander-2003-USA-Baseball-Rookie-Autograph-auto-Red-005-750-RC-Tigers-/332295583282?hash=item4d5e5c3632:g:ekkAAOSwc1FXYHt d

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-Chrome-Willie-Calhoun-Auto-RC-Gem-Mint-PSA-10-/372005290456?hash=item569d3e41d8:g:FmAAAOSwMvtZXvT C

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-Chrome-Prospect-Alex-Bregman-ROOKIE-RC-AUTO-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-PWCC-/401359180012?hash=item5d72df10ec:g:E34AAOSw6YtZWtp y

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-Bowmans-Best-First-Impressions-Andrew-Benintendi-RC-AUTO-99-PSA-10-PWCC-/142434635922?hash=item2129c41092:g:a1wAAOSw8d5ZWtg n

http://www.ebay.com/itm/AARON-JUDGE-2013-BOWMAN-CHROME-Draft-REFRACTOR-RC-AUTOGRAPH-PSA-10-Auto-10-/253021292650?hash=item3ae93e886a:g:xvYAAOSw1BlZVxx 0

I would be willing to bet that if you didn't know whose cards they were you couldn't tell who had signed half the autographs out there.

[bn2cardz]

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

I don't know what 8 years you are comparing for Mariano, but Kimbrel hasn't played a full 8 seasons yet. So you can't compare 8 seasons. For the years I compared (Kimbrel's full seasons 2011-2016, and Rivera's first 6 full seasons as a reliever 1997-2002) then the numbers are Kimbrel 13.6 and Rivera 17.5. This still puts the favor in Rivera, but not nearly the difference you have. It also backs up my theory, though, that Rivera didn't have many comps when he played. Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

On this subject of the game changing here is an interesting article from earlier this week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/craig-kimbrel-kenley-jansen-stats-best-closers-pitchers-with-more-strikeouts-than-runners-record/12imnw75nex6a1drgug56ipj9x

[packs]

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

[packs]

And who do the players think are buying the cards? I don't care how many they are asked to sign (and I doubt any given player is asked to sign tens of thousands), they are getting paid so much money they should take the time to sign cleanly and legibly.

I mean look at this it's a disgrace.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Justin-Verlander-2003-USA-Baseball-Rookie-Autograph-auto-Red-005-750-RC-Tigers-/332295583282?hash=item4d5e5c3632:g:ekkAAOSwc1FXYHt d

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-Chrome-Willie-Calhoun-Auto-RC-Gem-Mint-PSA-10-/372005290456?hash=item569d3e41d8:g:FmAAAOSwMvtZXvT C

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-Chrome-Prospect-Alex-Bregman-ROOKIE-RC-AUTO-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-PWCC-/401359180012?hash=item5d72df10ec:g:E34AAOSw6YtZWtp y

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-Bowmans-Best-First-Impressions-Andrew-Benintendi-RC-AUTO-99-PSA-10-PWCC-/142434635922?hash=item2129c41092:g:a1wAAOSw8d5ZWtg n

http://www.ebay.com/itm/AARON-JUDGE-2013-BOWMAN-CHROME-Draft-REFRACTOR-RC-AUTOGRAPH-PSA-10-Auto-10-/253021292650?hash=item3ae93e886a:g:xvYAAOSw1BlZVxx 0

I would be willing to bet that if you didn't know whose cards they were you couldn't tell who had signed half the autographs out there.


I don't think fans are the biggest buyers of cards. I think dealers, prospectors, and flippers are the majority of the card buying audience. Why do I think that? Because of the type of inserts that are included in the product and the product price point, coupled with the fact that the casual fans I know don't collect cards. Also I don't think a baseball card contract is as lucrative as you're making it out to be. Signing cards for Bowman isn't included in a player's salary as a baseball player.

Secondly, a signature is a mark. If you become familiar with someone's mark, it doesn't matter what the signature looks like. You will always be able to identify it because you are familiar with the mark. To each their own on that one, but if I wanted to collect artwork I would, and then there would just be another debate on what makes something art.

[bn2cardz]

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

Again Kimbrel hasn't played 8 years. He hasn't finished this season, and didn't break RC status in 2010.

Mariano was not a full time closer in 1996, he was a setup man. He had 107 innings that year and only had 8svo. Closer WARs are always lower, it doesn't favor part time pitchers. So you can't use that season to compare to a closer.

I gave you the most comparable stats I could. The first 6 full seasons of closer duty for both pitchers.

[packs]

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

[bn2cardz]

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

Oh please tell me you are kidding me right now. You are talking in circles. You already brought up cumulative stats. Here is my quick summation of responses and you can go back and read the full response with stats to back it up:

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

...inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.[/url]

Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

I would also like to point out that your Altuve/Cobb comparison doesn't make any sense here. Altuve's .314 BA doesn't compare to Cobb's .370 BA over those 5 seasons. In essence Altuve has less hits in more chances. You can't even compare the two.

A better Cobb comparison would be like you saying Pete Rose is better than Cobb because he accumulated 65 more hits than Cobb over 24 seasons and ignoring the 528 extra games Rose played in. Cumulative stats, in and of themselves, are not good bench marks of a great player. Nor should they be the end all in comparing players.

I gave you legitimate stats to compare Kimbrel to Rivera with the given stats at this point in both of their careers. You are using emotion, straw men arguments, and the argument that "we can't compare current players to past players with high cumulative stats" in an attempt to delegitimize the facts as presented. I still propose inning for inning at this point in their career Kimbrel is very comprable to Rivera, and possibly better.

[packs]

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.

[bn2cardz]

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. That's why there can't be a real discussion. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.

Ok, it is obvious you are just looking for an argument and are unable to look at stats from unbias perspective. You did not take 8 seasons of relief. Kimbrel hasn't had 8 seasons of relief. That seems to be alluding you. He played 21 games in 2010, we haven't even hit the all star game this season. You are taking 8 full season WARs and comparing them to 6 full seasons and two partial seasons. By this logic Austin Jackson's 10 WAR in his first two seasons makes him much better than Aaron Judge since he only has a 4.8 in his "first two seasons".

The parameters I set weren't arbitrary. You tried to compare non closer seasons to a closer with WAR stats. That can't be done. Otherwise one could conclude that Jerry Koosman was better than Mariano Rivera since Koosman's 57.1 WAR over 19 seasons was better than Rivera's 56.6 over 19 seasons.

[frankbmd]

I don't think fans are the biggest buyers of cards. I think dealers, prospectors, and flippers are the majority of the card buying audience. Why do I think that? Because of the type of inserts that are included in the product and the product price point, coupled with the fact that the casual fans I know don't collect cards. Also I don't think a baseball card contract is as lucrative as you're making it out to be. Signing cards for Bowman isn't included in a player's salary as a baseball player.

Secondly, a signature is a mark. If you become familiar with someone's mark, it doesn't matter what the signature looks like. You will always be able to identify it because you are familiar with the mark. To each their own on that one, but if I wanted to collect artwork I would, and then there would just be another debate on what makes something art.

In the canine world one leaves a "mark" by raising their hind leg near a tree.
Let's hope player's autograph "marks" don't replicate this technique, or we'll end up with shiny, scented cards with yellow stains, and flipper/collectors will search unopened packs with their noses.:eek::eek::eek:

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't think fans are the biggest buyers of cards. I think dealers, prospectors, and flippers are the majority of the card buying audience. Why do I think that? Because of the type of inserts that are included in the product and the product price point, coupled with the fact that the casual fans I know don't collect cards. Also I don't think a baseball card contract is as lucrative as you're making it out to be. Signing cards for Bowman isn't included in a player's salary as a baseball player.

Secondly, a signature is a mark. If you become familiar with someone's mark, it doesn't matter what the signature looks like. You will always be able to identify it because you are familiar with the mark. To each their own on that one, but if I wanted to collect artwork I would, and then there would just be another debate on what makes something art.

You can be as contrarian as you wish, it seems to be your way sometimes, but I cannot believe the vast majority of people would not prefer a nice legible autograph to a chicken scratch even if it was distinctive. In the meantime, cue up the tune: My uncle out in Texas can't even write his name, he signs his checks with "x's", but they cash them just the same.

[WillBBC]

In the canine world one leaves a "mark" by raising their hind leg near a tree.
Let's hope player's autograph "marks" don't replicate this technique, or we'll end up with shiny, scented cards with yellow stains, and flipper/collectors will search unopened packs with their noses.:eek::eek::eek:


I can't be the only one that sniffs their cards, right? Cardboard smells good. I miss old printer paper.

I'll see myself out.

[chaddurbin]

*sigs are sigs...does it matter if it looks like ted williams or miguel sano? doesn't really matter to me i enjoy both equally. i don't collect autographs for how they look.
*kimbrel--he's had a nice bounce back year. prolly just needed to adjust to boston's scrutiny...some never adjust like crawford let's see how price does. kimbrel's still dependent on the big velo? his 2 pitches have like a 10 mile difference, let's see how he does when he starts to age and his fb is slower. i'd take kenley jansen who has that unhittable 92-94mph cutter like rivera that never ages.

[packs]

I bit the bullet:

http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m294/madjams/Judge_zpsjpkicpbs.jpg

[Peter_Spaeth]

He just dropped under .300.

[jb217676]

His cards will never be worth as much as they were a few weeks ago. Hope you all got off that train and made some dough off Judge!

[chaddurbin]

i guess if you're a red sox fan you're waiting for him to fail. as for the rest of us i hope he exceeds his expectation, baseball needs more charismatic stars. a better version of joey gallo would be disappointing at this point.

[packs]

I guess I just don't know why people don't want him to be good. There are some really pessimistic posts in this thread about a guy with a feel good story who's liked and respected by pretty much everyone in baseball. I admit I never thought he'd play as well as he has, but now that he's succeeding all I want to do is root for him.

[irv]

I guess I just don't know why people don't want him to be good. There are some really pessimistic posts in this thread about a guy with a feel good story who's liked and respected by pretty much everyone in baseball. I admit I never thought he'd play as well as he has, but now that he's succeeding all I want to do is root for him.

I don't think that is the case at all. Most in this thread, including me, do not wish him to do poorly, we just wish, with those that have him touted as being the next Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth, would be a little more realistic in their assessment of him at such an early stage in his career.

I like the guy, and I hope he continues to climb and do well as I think it is great for baseball, but paying what some have, even for manufactured rare cards, like has been said numerous times, is just plain silly.

There is nothing wrong with speculating/hoping, but with the crazy prices we were/have been seeing with his cards, hopefully you can understand why some were being a little less optimistic $$$ than others. :D

[ls7plus]

I guess I just don't know why people don't want him to be good. There are some really pessimistic posts in this thread about a guy with a feel good story who's liked and respected by pretty much everyone in baseball. I admit I never thought he'd play as well as he has, but now that he's succeeding all I want to do is root for him.

I root for him too--a very smart, humble guy who is good for the game. I watch every Yankee game televised on Fox Sports, ESPN or MLB in my area just to cheer him on. The reason for his downturn lately is that the pitchers have found a hole with balls breaking down and inside to him (good lefty sliders and righty changeups) plus he is chasing sliders breaking down and away to some extent again (a la last year) and even occasionally chasing fastballs above the letters. His chasing of pitches should be curable, but the vulnerability to pitches breaking in and down to him may well be a consequence of his inability to recognize what these pitches are, and present a more serious problem in the long run.

While I root ardently for him to succeed, I certainly wouldn't buy his cards now, since as I've stated before, their current high level of demand (and hence prices) is of a speculative and transient nature. Also, since he is already 25, it may prove difficult for him to put up significantly high career numbers to even remotely justify those prices later. Buy him during his 30's downturn if he still looks good then career-wise.

Happy collecting,

Larry

[dclarkraiders]

As an O's fan, I dislike the Yankees as much as anyone. Having said that, what I have seen of Judge so far is all good. He is humble, well spoken and appears to be a great person. It is hard to root against him. Also, I am the guy who would get in arguments with other Oriole Fans at Camden Yards regarding Derek Jeter. I would defend Jeter and could never understand why the O's fans would boo him. He was the Yankees version of Cal Jr. How can you boo a guy that shows up every day, gives 100% and is a great person off the field as well. Sometimes you have to look beyond the uniform and show some respect to what some players bring to the table, on and off the field.

Duane

[Peter_Spaeth]

Even as a Red Sox fan I have nothing against Judge and wish him well (in his other games), my issue is only with the frenzy that some people seemed to be in after just a couple of good months, which means very little in baseball.

[MattyC]

For any fellow Judge Collectors, some recent pickups that've been exciting additions to mine and my son's Judge Collection. Frazier, Sanchez, Severino, and Bird (we are hoping for a healthy return to 1B) also have some great-looking cards. Still looking for the Judge 1/1s from Heritage and Archives; hard to find, but leads to lots of ripping wax, which is always fun.

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/52119/2017-heritage-judgeaustin-refractor

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/52805/2013-bowman-chrome-refractor-judge-auto

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/52092/2017-topps-stadium-club-judge

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/51692/2017-topps-now-judge-auto

[rats60]

Even as a Red Sox fan I have nothing against Judge and wish him well (in his other games), my issue is only with the frenzy that some people seemed to be in after just a couple of good months, which means very little in baseball.

He is having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have won MVP. Ichiro (OPS+126) and Fred Lynn (OPS+ 162). Judge (OPS+ 170) is at worst top 2 in the MVP race. If you have an issue with hype, it should be over Andrew Benintendi, the next Ted Williams, earlier in the season or Rafael Devers, already better than Judge after 8 games.

[Davino]

For any fellow Judge Collectors, some recent pickups that've been exciting additions to mine and my son's Judge Collection. Frazier, Sanchez, Severino, and Bird (we are hoping for a healthy return to 1B) also have some great-looking cards. Still looking for the Judge 1/1s from Heritage and Archives; hard to find, but leads to lots of ripping wax, which is always fun.

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/52119/2017-heritage-judgeaustin-refractor

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/52805/2013-bowman-chrome-refractor-judge-auto

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/52092/2017-topps-stadium-club-judge

https://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/mattianc/2017-yankees/51692/2017-topps-now-judge-auto


You are a great Dad, sharing your passion with your son, right on!!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

He is having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have won MVP. Ichiro (OPS+126) and Fred Lynn (OPS+ 162). Judge (OPS+ 170) is at worst top 2 in the MVP race. If you have an issue with hype, it should be over Andrew Benintendi, the next Ted Williams, earlier in the season or Rafael Devers, already better than Judge after 8 games.

I agree it's way premature on them too. But that's Boston for you. It wasn't long ago we were anointing Will Middlebrooks, and then Travis Shaw.

[irv]

Had the opportunity to watch Judge and the Yankees take on the Blue Jays the last few nights and unfortunately for Judge, he is still struggling since the All Star break.

I believe, IIRC, he only had 1 double (his only hit) in the series? What surprised me the most, was the amount of strikes he took just watching them go by. Even I, a Blue Jays fan, was saying, swing when I could see a hittable ball coming his way, but he just watched them into the catcher's mitt. :confused:

It's his 27th consecutive game with a strikeout :eek: The record for positional players is 32.

I am not sure the story nor the reasons why, but for him, and baseball, I sure hope he is able to turn it around.

[irv]

Who's Aaron Judge anyways? What about Justin Smoak?

Hit his 32 HR today, is batting .300, is a switch hitter, like Mantle, is a solid first baseman, has a gorgeous wife and looks like Johnny Hopp. :D

He does have a few RC's, but nothing like Judge does, so, being since his RC's are more scarce, they should hold better value, no? :confused:

All kidding aside, I am happy to see a player turn things around like he has.
I don't know for sure, but I am pretty sure the Jays were looking to trade him before the season started this year based on his last couple mediocre seasons with the Jays.
He has had a great season, and the Jays would be in a worst position than they are (chasing a wild card spot) if it weren't for him. :)

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/2007-UD-USA-Justin-Smoak-ON-CARD-BLUE-INK-CERTIFIED-AUTO-BLUE-JAYS-ROOKIE-RC-SP-/372024573807?hash=item569e647f6f:g:fwYAAOSw0j9ZOIw c

[Peter_Spaeth]

Two more Ks for Judge so far tonight. And he is down to .288. The only positive sign recently is that he is walking quite a bit which suggests he is not swinging at bad pitches, and is also keeping his OBP and OPS up.

[Snapolit1]

Perhaps the comparisons to Babe Ruth were a little premature. Not like Yankee fans though to get a little carried away. Usually very calm and understated.

[frankbmd]

He's been profoundly depressed since learning that his home runs in the Home Run Derby don't count.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Judge was barely a top 100 prospect for most of his minor league career. There are reasons for that. We are now seeing those reasons.

[cammb]

Two more Ks for Judge so far tonight. And he is down to .288. The only positive sign recently is that he is walking quite a bit which suggests he is not swinging at bad pitches, and is also keeping his OBP and OPS up.


I am not quite sure that I heard it right but didn't he tie a major league record by striking out at least once in 30 consecutive games?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I am not quite sure that I heard it right but didn't he tie a major league record by striking out at least once in 30 consecutive games?

I think that is right. There must be a hole in his swing ? because he's drawing a lot of walks so he doesn't seem impatient or to have a bad eye.

[bn2cardz]

I think that is right. There must be a hole in his swing ? because he's drawing a lot of walks so he doesn't seem impatient or to have a bad eye.

Mark Simon of ESPN thinks the Umps have changed his strike zone:

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/133472/overruled-umps-throwing-curveball-at-aaron-judge-in-second-half

[irv]

Had the opportunity to watch Judge and the Yankees take on the Blue Jays the last few nights and unfortunately for Judge, he is still struggling since the All Star break.

I believe, IIRC, he only had 1 double (his only hit) in the series? What surprised me the most, was the amount of strikes he took just watching them go by. Even I, a Blue Jays fan, was saying, swing when I could see a hittable ball coming his way, but he just watched them into the catcher's mitt. :confused:

It's his 27th consecutive game with a strikeout :eek: The record for positional players is 32.

I am not sure the story nor the reasons why, but for him, and baseball, I sure hope he is able to turn it around.

I am not quite sure that I heard it right but didn't he tie a major league record by striking out at least once in 30 consecutive games?

The record is 32, he is now at 30 I believe?

Adam Dunn holds the record for position players with 32 consecutive games with a strikeout.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/aaron-judge-strikes-out-three-more-times-but-he-remains-optimistic-1.14027302

[Peter_Spaeth]

Up to 31, he whiffed in his first at bat just now.

From the article.
Judge has drawn 25 walks and hit the five home runs since the break, but much of the rest has been hard to watch. The player who seemed to always put the barrel of the bat on the ball has 46 strikeouts in 97 at-bats since the break and at least one in 30 straight games (51 strikeouts in 104 at-bats in that span).

It's painful to watch the rapid decline of a seemingly very nice young man, and one with some clear talent although his anointment as the next superstar was premature. Obviously if he is striking out 50 percent of the time he is not long for the majors even if he does have the occasional pop in his bat. Hopefully he can stop the bleeding and figure out what's going wrong. It's a reminder of how damn difficult it is to hit a baseball and how small the difference between stardom and nothing really is.

[Bill77]

Just a couple of thoughts I had:

Judge is starting to remind me of Jeff Francoeur, great in his first half season and just average for the rest of his career.

Or possibly he needs some time off he has played 114 of the 118 games this season so far. Maybe he hasn't adjusted to the MLB grind the way the Yankees have hoped.

[bn2cardz]

Up to 31, he whiffed in his first at bat just now.


Yesterday's was actually number 32, tied for the most.

[MattyC]

You are a great Dad, sharing your passion with your son, right on!!!

Thanks; that's what it's all about. The boys in my family have always been about baseball— playing, rooting, collecting.

We've really been getting into the players we watch daily, especially Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Montgomery— and it's important for kids to learn the character of rooting for and collecting your favorite players even through their rough patches. I think the Heritage and Archives cards especially are great for kids and adults; lots of cool variations to look for.

Kid turns to me as we're opening packs and asks, "Dad, is this the best thing ever?"

I'm like, "Yes, son. Yes, it is."

[Peter_Spaeth]

Matt -- Trout and Altuve!!!:D

[MattyC]

Trout cards hurt the wallet, Pete! Boy he has some great looking cards, though.

That Altuve is a fantastic player to watch; the MLB app allows us to catch a good amount of his ABs. Wish my Yanks had a sparkplug that bats .360! Our buddy Gardner's in love with that short porch, LOL.

[ls7plus]

Up to 31, he whiffed in his first at bat just now.

From the article.
Judge has drawn 25 walks and hit the five home runs since the break, but much of the rest has been hard to watch. The player who seemed to always put the barrel of the bat on the ball has 46 strikeouts in 97 at-bats since the break and at least one in 30 straight games (51 strikeouts in 104 at-bats in that span).

It's painful to watch the rapid decline of a seemingly very nice young man, and one with some clear talent although his anointment as the next superstar was premature. Obviously if he is striking out 50 percent of the pop time he is not long for the majors even if he does have the occasional pop in his bat. Hopefully he can stop the bleeding and figure out what's going wrong. It's a reminder of how damn difficult it is to hit a baseball and how small the difference between stardom and nothing really is.

If I was the GM of the Texas Rangers, Joey Gallo would still be in the minors, and remain there until he learns to hit the ball. He takes this big, long cut at mid-nineties fastballs at the letters as if he really believes something positive for his team can come of that.

Aghast at this trend,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Joey is hitting .208 with 145Ks, and an OBP of .324, to go with the home runs.

[bn2cardz]

Judge had a good night tonight, but he did strike out in his 33rd consecutive game. He now has the record for most consecutive games with a strike out previously owned by Adam Dunn.

[chaddurbin]

you guys would probably bash adam dunn too.

we are not even watching the same game. gallo is delivering great value on a rookie contract and you wanna send him to the minors and have a 10mil scrappy utility man take his place probably...

[irv]

Not a record he wants, but Aaron now owns it.

He is a great person, and despite what some may think my thoughts of him are, I hope he can get things turned around. :)

[packs]

He's had a 400 OBP the last week and has been hitting the ball a lot better recently. Even over the last month, where people claim he's become a shattered player, the guy put up a 378 OBP.

He's hitting 291 on the season. When you hit 291, you don't hit 291 every month of the season. You have ups and downs. It's a natural part of the game.

[bn2cardz]

He's had a 400 OBP the last week and has been hitting the ball a lot better recently. Even over the last month, where people claim he's become a shattered player, the guy put up a 378 OBP.

He's hitting 291 on the season. When you hit 291, you don't hit 291 every month of the season. You have ups and downs. It's a natural part of the game.

This week he has been putting up the numbers he did at the beginning of the season, but the issue he has always had was that he is streaky. Sure he has an average of .291, but he dropped to this after a peak on June 12th of .347ba/.453obp/.728slg in his first 59 games, when he had 74 hits and 72 strikeouts. Since that date he has played 56 games and batted .230ba/.387obp/.490slg with 45 hits and 87 strikeouts.

He seems like a great guy, and is a guy I would like to do well. This past week is a start, but there is a lot he has to do to get back to his May/June stats.

[packs]

I guess it depends on the measuring stick. Why does he have to hit 350? If the Yankees have a 25 year old right fielder who is good for 30 homers a year and hits even 270, I'll take it all day.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I guess it depends on the measuring stick. Why does he have to hit 350? If the Yankees have a 25 year old right fielder who is good for 30 homers a year and hits even 270, I'll take it all day.

Agreed, if he can do that. But if the last 50 games is his real self, that's not good.

[bn2cardz]

I guess it depends on the measuring stick. Why does he have to hit 350? If the Yankees have a 25 year old right fielder who is good for 30 homers a year and hits even 270, I'll take it all day.

Agreed, I wish the Cardinals had a player like that. That same player, though, wouldn't garner the prices Judge has. I think he would garner a little more just because he so relatable and likable, just not the value he currently is getting.

[packs]

That's part of the Yankees that you can't get away from.

On the flip side, I don't hear anyone saying much about Mookie Betts. He came in 2nd in MVP voting last year but this year his average is almost 50 points lower and his OPS is 100 points lower.

[Peter_Spaeth]

That's part of the Yankees that you can't get away from.

On the flip side, I don't hear anyone saying much about Mookie Betts. He came in 2nd in MVP voting last year but this year his average is almost 50 points lower and his OPS is 100 points lower.

He projects to about 25 HR 100 RBI so not a terrible year production wise but yeah he is well below where he was a year ago. Still young, and nothing IMO glaringly wrong, so time will tell.

PS Judge just whiffed in his first two at bats, extending his new record.

[irv]

He projects to about 25 HR 100 RBI so not a terrible year production wise but yeah he is well below where he was a year ago. Still young, and nothing IMO glaringly wrong, so time will tell.

PS Judge just whiffed in his first two at bats, extending his new record.

Wow. Has there been any talk about sending him down to stop the bleeding?

I can't imagine he wants to add any further to it, but maybe he's determined and doesn't really sive a ghit?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Wow. Has there been any talk about sending him down to stop the bleeding?

I can't imagine he wants to add any further to it, but maybe he's determined and doesn't really sive a ghit?

Three whiffs tonight so far, it's painful really to watch.

[irv]

Three whiffs tonight so far, it's painful really to watch.

Is that 34 or 35 now? Not sure why they don't remove him from that by sending him down but there is likely more to it than that?

I can't see this new record and his current slump, let alone all the attention he is getting, doing anything for his confidence and self esteem.

Maybe he has said no to any suggestion of such and wants to work through it himself? Who knows?
It would make for a great story if he is able to turn things around and find his form like he had at the start of the season.

[packs]

You're worried about his confidence so you want to send down a guy who will win ROY and leads your team in all offensive categories, not to mention leads the entire AL in runs, home runs, slugging and OPS? And do it while battling for a play off spot?

[Peter_Spaeth]

You're worried about his confidence so you want to send down a guy who will win ROY and leads your team in all offensive categories, not to mention leads the entire AL in runs, home runs, slugging and OPS? And do it while battling for a play off spot?

I think at this point you just let it ride and hope he picks it up at least a little bit. But if he continues for the rest of the season to strike out in nearly half his at bats (which he did last year in his brief debut BTW), I think you need to reassess. At this point the book seems to be out whether he is a real star just going through a prolonged slump, or whether his first half was just an aberration. Fascinating story really, made more so by the fact that he is so physically imposing and at the same time seemingly a wonderful guy.

[chaddurbin]

peter--as a sox fan you're way too invested in a yankees player. go start a thread about bogaerts' annual 2nd half slump or devers' impact on this red sox season.

just going on track record and scouting reports i'd take the next 10 years of devers over judge (caveat devers doesn't start eating like pablo sandoval).

[Peter_Spaeth]

peter--as a sox fan you're way too invested in a yankees player. go start a thread about bogaerts' annual 2nd half slump or devers' impact on this red sox season.

just going on track record and scouting reports i'd take the next 10 years of devers over judge (caveat devers doesn't start eating like pablo sandoval).

Quan, yeah Devers looks promising but who knows. I still have hopes for Benintendi I think he is solid and has a big upside.

[packs]

I'm actually hoping to capitalize on the post-Benintendi hype and pick up some of his cards for cheap over the winter. I think he's going to be really good even though he didn't quite live up to the hype this year.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm actually hoping to capitalize on the post-Benintendi hype and pick up some of his cards for cheap over the winter. I think he's going to be really good even though he didn't quite live up to the hype this year.

He's picked it up recently, he's over .400 for August with a 10 game hit streak. The hype out of Boston was way overdone but he seems like the type of player with strong fundamentals who will keep getting better.

[chaddurbin]

As an objective observer I'd take Benny over judge long term also...but TBH I don't think either gonna be top 5-10 players yr in n yr out going forward

[Canofcorn]

Judge looks flat out awful. He's lucky he was hit on that 0-2 pitch. Almost looked
like he stuck out his elbow on purpose, can't say I blame him.
Girardi needs to drop him down in the lineup, that's for sure.

[bn2cardz]

When Judge passed Dunn for consecutive games it was just for position players in a single season.

After his 36th consecutive game tonight he has the record in a single season of all players passing pitcher, Bill Stoneman. He is also just one away from tying the record that spans two seasons at 37 games (Stoneman 1971-72).

[frankbmd]

Judge needs a strikeout coach.

I would suggest Mariano Rivera.

In 19 years in the bigs, he only struck out once.:eek:

[ALR-bishop]

Frank must be lost

[clydepepper]

I struck out in 21 consecutive at-bats in Pony League.

That's when I started pitching...luckily, the days of the DH quickly followed.


.

[ls7plus]

you guys would probably bash adam dunn too.

we are not even watching the same game. gallo is delivering great value on a rookie contract and you wanna send him to the minors and have a 10mil scrappy utility man take his place probably...

Simply stated, Gallo needs to learn to hit the ball. Most comparable player: Rob Deer, although Deer hit .220 for his career. The air lives in fear of Gallo's bat; the ball feels very, very secure in comparison!

Regards,

Larry

[bravos4evr]

Gallo is somehow being productive tho. .890 OPS, 127 wRC+ is pretty darn good

[Peter_Spaeth]

The interesting question for players like this is whether the incremental power when they do hit the ball offsets all those extra outs and strikeouts. I guess it all depends which stats you think are more reliable.

[irv]

Glad to see Judge's streak is over, but, of course, it isn't without controversy.
http://nypost.com/2017/08/23/whiff-of-controversy-as-aaron-judges-strikeout-streak-ends/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Glad to see Judge's streak is over, but, of course, it isn't without controversy.
http://nypost.com/2017/08/23/whiff-of-controversy-as-aaron-judges-strikeout-streak-ends/

LOL the pressure would have been on in that final at bat.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Man, he's about to dip under .280. This is awful. 0 for 4 and 2 Ks today so far. Cmon Aaron.

[frankbmd]

"All Rise"

will be replaced by

"Please Be Seated"

very soon indeed.

[irv]

Man, he's about to dip under .280. This is awful. 0 for 4 and 2 Ks today so far. Cmon Aaron.

.176 since the All Star game. :eek:

Aaron Judge’s struggles continued on Saturday as the slumping slugger went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts.

He is now 15 for his last 82 and is hitting .176 since the All-Star break.

Girardi plans to give Judge a day off soon, but not because he’s slumping.

“I think at some point in a 29 out of 30 day stretch he’s going to need a day off,” he said.

[Peter_Spaeth]

.176 since the All Star game. :eek:

Aaron Judge’s struggles continued on Saturday as the slumping slugger went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts.

He is now 15 for his last 82 and is hitting .176 since the All-Star break.

Girardi plans to give Judge a day off soon, but not because he’s slumping.

“I think at some point in a 29 out of 30 day stretch he’s going to need a day off,” he said.

Epic. I hope this young man can turn it around at least to the point where he can be a respectable player and not a footnote. I joked with a board member after the HR Derby that it was all downhill from there, and unfortunately there seems to be some element of truth in that.

[irv]

Epic. I hope this young man can turn it around at least to the point where he can be a respectable player and not a footnote. I joked with a board member after the HR Derby that it was all downhill from there, and unfortunately there seems to be some element of truth in that.

Me too. He seems like a great kid who would more than likely give you the shirt off his back if he had to?.

My gut tells me he'll get things figured out and be a great player someday.

[Klrdds]

He is an apparent victim of the curse of winning the All - Star Home Run Derby contest.
Just as there is the Madden NFL game cover curse and the Sports Illustrated magazine cover curse ( for those players who are rookies or have yet to appear in a professional level game but have so much hype ) we have had for a few years now the All - Star Home Run Derby Curse.
Wonder what will be the next curse ?

[frankbmd]

He is an apparent victim of the curse of winning the All - Star Home Run Derby contest.
Just as there is the Madden NFL game cover curse and the Sports Illustrated magazine cover curse ( for those players who are rookies or have yet to appear in a professional level game but have so much hype ) we have had for a few years now the All - Star Home Run Derby Curse.
Wonder what will be the next curse ?

In 2005 Bobby Abreu surprised most hitting 41 in the HRD.
I don't think he surprised many others thereafter.

[packs]

Heating up now, isn't he? 4 homers in the past week. 2 yesterday. Has 19 total bases in his last 20 at bats.

[D. Bergin]

Heating up now, isn't he? 4 homers in the past week. 2 yesterday. Has 19 total bases in his last 20 at bats.


Got his OPS back above 1.000 to................and as long as he keeps getting on base and keeping his OBP over .400, any comparisons to a Rob Deer or Dave Kingman type are pretty baseless.

Still wouldn't stock up in his cards long term, but as a Yankee fan he's way exceeded my expectations, recent slump or not.

What does give me a bit of pause is that Judge's latest tear has come against really sub-par pitchers. September call-ups essentially.

[RayBShotz]

Taken as a whole this is a very impressive season from a player the Yankees had modest expectations for at the end of 2016.
I'm rooting for the guy.
RayB

[packs]

Give me all the 25 year old right fielders you can to pencil in at 270 and 40-100.

Judge currently leads the league in runs, home runs, walks, and is second in Slugging, OPS and OBP only to Mike Trout, who has played just 99 games. Judge has played 140. I would call him the true leader in those categories too.

[MattyC]

When it's all said and done, Judge's 2017 season will go down as one of the best rookie seasons— heck, it already is. And from a homegrown Yankee with an endearing persona. He's a fan favorite for many years to come.

[MrSeven]

Heating up now, isn't he? 4 homers in the past week. 2 yesterday. Has 19 total bases in his last 20 at bats.

In the last ten games he has posted a 1.309 OPS.

A pretty good improvement from .533. :)

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Two words, Jay Buhner. I think those are reasonable expectations for him. Of course the market for his rookie card might not be happy with the comparison...

[packs]

Jay Buhner never led the league in anything but strike outs. His highest single season WAR was 3.5. Judge is already at 6.7. He has surpassed Buhner's best season in his rookie season.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Yes and I would bet you he never sniffs another 6.7 season, his reality is somewhere between his insane start (I mean a .440 average on balls in play is just not real) and his 2nd half swoon. Hence, Jay Buhner. 40 homerun power nice OBP. In New York that'll be enough to get him to a bunch of all-star games.

We don't have to agree, Although I think it's funny that now that we're not talking about Corey Dickerson suddenly you are interested in WAR...

:)

[packs]

You probably would have said Judge wouldn't sniff 6.7 at the beginning of the year, but here we are with him there. The only comparison between Buhner and Judge is a home run total, which I think ignores every other aspect of Judge's game.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

You don't even bother to read my posts. Power and OBP, pretty much where I feel Judge will settle in. He hits singles and homeruns, there's a reason he didn't make the majors until 25, and never hit for anything remotely resembling these numbers in the minors. You'd think I was insulting him comparing him to a guy who hit 310 HR's with a .360 OBP.

I didn't mention a fielding comparison, Buhner was a decent fielder with an awesome arm, hard to know how that equates with Judge's fielding which is pretty good, but his arm doesn't seem like anything special.

[packs]

I don't know too many players who hit 40 plus homers by accident. He went to college for 4 years and made his debut at 24 years old. When people say "two words" it's always meant to be some kind of caution. I don't see a caution in a 25 year old guy who hits 40 homers, gets on base and scores runs. Saying Buhner level power output is pretty broad and that could apply to anyone who hits home runs but it's the combination of getting on base and scoring runs that make up Judge's game.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I don't know too many players who hit 40 plus homers by accident. He went to college for 4 years and made his debut at 24 years old. When people say "two words" it's always meant to be some kind of caution. I don't see a caution in a 25 year old guy who hits 40 homers, gets on base and scores runs. Saying Buhner level power output is pretty broad and that could apply to anyone who hits home runs but it's the combination of getting on base and scoring runs that make up Judge's game.

40 HR's by accident? When did I ever say that? I compared him to a guy who hit 40 home runs 3 times. Scoring runs is an ability that has almost nothing to do with the player scoring them. Yes a great base runner may add a couple runs per year over an average one, and a home run hitter obviously scores himself, but runs scored is basically an indicator of how good your teammates are.

But let's pretend I actually did say he's hitting 40 by accident. I DO know a number of players who did just that. Rico Petrocelli, Davey Johnson, Andre Dawson, Adrian Beltre, Roger Maris, and that's leaving off steroid suspects like Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez.

Note that a lot of these guys had power, but the difference between their best season and their second best season is HUGE, so I say it was an "accident," or a fluke.

[clydepepper]

40 HR's by accident? When did I ever say that? I compared him to a guy who hit 40 home runs 3 times. Scoring runs is an ability that has almost nothing to do with the player scoring them. Yes a great base runner may add a couple runs per year over an average one, and a home run hitter obviously scores himself, but runs scored is basically an indicator of how good your teammates are.

But let's pretend I actually did say he's hitting 40 by accident. I DO know a number of players who did just that. Rico Petrocelli, Davey Johnson, Andre Dawson, Adrian Beltre, Roger Maris, and that's leaving off steroid suspects like Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez.

Note that a lot of these guys had power, but the difference between their best season and their second best season is HUGE, so I say it was an "accident," or a fluke.

Now, Scott- I always had hoped I would never see any steroid allegations or rumors linked to Luis, who led the league in Homers here in Columbus, GA while in the minors. I believe he may have 'charged something up' late in his career, but I thought that was what caused his wife to have triplets, not him to hit 57 dingers in a hot, very hitter-friendly park...of course, I could be wrong...Q: Did Boggs and Campaneris juice in their one big year?

...or did it just an anomaly?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

big difference when your one big year is 22 or 24 versus 57. I did also only label him a suspect!

[bnorth]

Now, Scott- I always had hoped I would never see any steroid allegations or rumors linked to Luis, who led the league in Homers here in Columbus, GA while in the minors. I believe he may have 'charged something up' late in his career, but I thought that was what caused his wife to have triplets, not him to hit 57 dingers in a hot, very hitter-friendly park...of course, I could be wrong...Q: Did Boggs and Campaneris juice in their one big year?

...or did it just an anomaly?

Boggs put on a home run hitting show during batting practice that was amazing. He chose not to hit home runs during games to keep his average as high as possible.

If there was a way of proving it there is not a single player in the last 60 years I would bet any money on as being completely clean of PEDs during their carrier.

[frankbmd]

Boggs put on a home run hitting show during batting practice that was amazing. He chose not to hit home runs during games to keep his average as high as possible.

If there was a way of proving it there is not a single player in the last 60 years I would bet any money on as being completely clean of PEDs during their carrier.

Boggs may have been completely clean, but can you say the same for all the chickens he consumed. Just fowl play, carry on.

[bnorth]

Boggs may have been completely clean, but can you say the same for all the chickens he consumed. Just fowl play, carry on.

I never said my all time favorite player was clean. As someone with experience in farming I can 100% guarantee the chickens are pumped full of steroids and/or antibiotics.

[Peter_Spaeth]

That used to drive me insane about Boggs, knowing he was damn well capable of hitting for power and cutting down on his swing for the sake of his BA. My guess, of course pure speculation, is that by today's metrics he would have been viewed as a better ballplayer had he not done that.

[clydepepper]

Ben- I've heard that story about Boggs' pre-game home run hitting before, but never had anyone say that they actually saw it. Did you?

[packs]

I watched Boggs take BP while he was with the Yankees. Back then that was part of the experience of going to the game. I don't remember him hitting them any more than anyone else. The only real distinct BP memory I have is when Barry Bonds came to the stadium for inter-league play. He hit some over the bleachers back then that hit off the back wall. I'd never seen that before.