View Full Version : Collector's Conundrum
frankbmd
11-25-2016, 09:55 AM
We all know value (price) is influenced by both condition and scarcity of an item.
With our experience with registries in the hobby, the value increases exponentially secondary to both these factors as well as the grade.
Let's say that there is a hypothetical rare item A worth $20000 in today's market and only two of them are known to exist.
Let's then say there is another very similar hypothetical item B worth $100000 in today's market and it is a true 1 of 1.
Let's also say that you own one of the two existing copies of item A.
Now an auction comes along and lo and behold the second item A has been consigned. The auction is almost over and a bid of $20000 has been made.
The world has been searched for decades and it is very unlikely that any more As or Bs are out there.
What do you do?
A) Go to bed
B) Place a bid of $21000 in the auction and raise it conservatively as needed until you have won the item. When you receive the item, you simply destroy it and consign your only existing item A in the next auction and wait for it to sell for around $100000.
If, my friend, you did not go to bed and answered B, I would suggest that you have turned the Collector's Nightmare into the Collector's Dream.
In other words, you will sleep better if you don't go to bed.:confused::eek::D
I vote C, buy it and hoard them.
Peter_Spaeth
11-25-2016, 10:41 AM
D Fight the hypothetical.
ullmandds
11-25-2016, 10:59 AM
frank...you neglected to mention that the bid of 21000 is really a bid of @25K with the buyers premium(assuming this is in an auction house)...and what the hell does item b have to do with the price of lemons?
frankbmd
11-25-2016, 11:21 AM
frank...you neglected to mention that the bid of 21000 is really a bid of @25K with the buyers premium(assuming this is in an auction house)...and what the hell does item b have to do with the price of lemons?
pete... what the hell does the buyer's premium have to do with the general premise of the conundrum .... and if you're talking about a lemon named Bob, nothing.;)
NiceDocter
11-25-2016, 01:13 PM
One of one or one of two is only valid until the next big find. Thats the fun and the agony of collecting!
Bocabirdman
11-25-2016, 02:43 PM
Hypothetically, I would do neither. The other day, while taking my cow to town to sell her, a nice guy, after trading me three magic beans for her, gave me a hot tip. I would take the $21K and buy 1000 Factory sealed '92 Donruss Sets. He told me that that's where all the smart money is going. (Keep it under your hat. Okay fellas?)
D.P.Johnson
11-25-2016, 03:25 PM
If I choose A) Go to bed, would I being going to bed alone, or would Jennifer Aniston be there to take care of my conundrum???
Bocabirdman
11-25-2016, 03:32 PM
If I choose A) Go to bed, would I being going to bed alone, or would Jennifer Aniston be there to take care of my conundrum???
That depends ...Is your Conundrum wrapped in an Enigma?
ValKehl
11-25-2016, 10:03 PM
Frank, yes, "we all know value (price) is influenced by both condition and scarcity of an item." However, you failed to mention that value (price) is also greatly influenced by the DEMAND for an item. If Item A were in a set that has next to no collector demand, I'd go to bed (with or without J.A.) - I have a few such cards, and they aren't worth anything remotely close to $20K. But, if Item A were in a popular set, I'm a +1 to what Leon said.
frankbmd
11-26-2016, 09:25 AM
Frank, yes, "we all know value (price) is influenced by both condition and scarcity of an item." However, you failed to mention that value (price) is also greatly influenced by the DEMAND for an item. If Item A were in a set that has next to no collector demand, I'd go to bed (with or without J.A.) - I have a few such cards, and they aren't worth anything remotely close to $20K. But, if Item A were in a popular set, I'm a +1 to what Leon said.
Demand for A and B at the prices stated is a constant in the Conundrum.
Demand for J. A. is a variable, Val, with no guarantee that either you or she can deliver.
iwantitiwinit
11-26-2016, 10:08 AM
Where's the conundrum the answer is clearly B.
mikemb
11-26-2016, 10:26 AM
Hypothetically, I would do neither. The other day, while taking my cow to town to sell her, a nice guy, after trading me three magic beans for her, gave me a hot tip. I would take the $21K and buy 1000 Factory sealed '92 Donruss Sets. He told me that that's where all the smart money is going. (Keep it under your hat. Okay fellas?)
Hey, I met the same guy! He told me 1988 Donruss is where the big money is!
Mike
bgar3
11-26-2016, 10:27 AM
This is essentially the plot dilemma in Flaubert's Bibliomania short story.
Prof_Plum
11-26-2016, 11:00 AM
Whatever became of the blue Old Mill ....
Peter_Spaeth
11-26-2016, 08:20 PM
This is essentially the plot dilemma in Flaubert's Bibliomania short story.
Indeed Frank had a very sentimental education.
bigfanNY
11-26-2016, 08:53 PM
I do not think B is a viable answer to the conundrum. If the market has valued card A with two known copies at $20,000 and an Auction that is live at the moment is verifying the market value then I do not believe that reducing the population by one you would dramatically increase the price. Just like finding 2 more of card A almost certainly not dramatically reduce the current market price.
Demand for the card would remain constant and supply reduced by 50% with constant demand might cause the card to shift slightly higher just as an increase of supply would cause a small downshift in price. So destroying the second known copy would almost certainly result in economic loss. Over Time that might not be true but the immediate impact would be negative.
And no real collector of Baseball cards would rather have one card when he could have two..
JMHO
Jonathan
frankbmd
11-26-2016, 09:47 PM
I do not think B is a viable answer to the conundrum. If the market has valued card A with two known copies at $20,000 and an Auction that is live at the moment is verifying the market value then I do not believe that reducing the population by one you would dramatically increase the price. Just like finding 2 more of card A almost certainly not dramatically reduce the current market price.
Demand for the card would remain constant and supply reduced by 50% with constant demand might cause the card to shift slightly higher just as an increase of supply would cause a small downshift in price. So destroying the second known copy would almost certainly result in economic loss. Over Time that might not be true but the immediate impact would be negative.
And no real collector of Baseball cards would rather have one card when he could have two..
JMHO
Jonathan
If anyone is contemplating destroying a 21,000 dollar card as a result of this thread, I can refer you to get the therapy you need. That's a better deal than Flaubert offered.;)
T206Collector
11-26-2016, 09:55 PM
When you bid on the second copy of your card you are also simultaneously setting the value of the first copy -- both of them really. So every dollar you bid is another dollar in your pocket. It's free money. You're literally playing with the house money. No need to destroy the second copy -- you've got two worth half!
Or something like that... :D