View Full Version : Problems with VCP and the Hobby
ezez420
09-28-2016, 08:24 AM
So as all of you know the market has cooled off tremendously since the National and will cool off further until the end of the year. And if you think otherwise that's too bad. Did people see this coming? Of course some of us intelligent ones on here did. Were people warned, of course you all were. I will commend Peter S. for telling it how it was months ago when people were laughing. He was right and some of you knew he was right.
However, a real big problem is VCP here which is hurting the hobby.
So during this few months span there were a group of a$$holes who thought they were "pushing" the market yet they never paid for some high dollar items so they can record in VCP. Yes create a fictitious market so the bottom would drop. I am not posting to get into that or explain. But you can see on things like the Rose Rookies, Ryan Rookies, Clemente Rookies, Aaron Rookies... you get the point.
However, I am very curious though why VCP continues to present these closed prices when cards are NOT paid for or turn out to be fakes. Yes houses did sell cards in fake PSA holders. I will not elaborate any further but this is happening. Also why the auction houses that do report to VCP do not state that the items were not paid for. This is bullsh&t and needs to be taken care of.
It's always been the cases with that there is shilling in auctions and you can't tell which items were actually paid for at the winning price, etc. Interpreting data is always as important as data itself.
ezez420
09-28-2016, 08:42 AM
Shilling is one thing that is harder to control. However, a sale that is completed or not paid for by a winning bidder to an auction house is easy to control.
Wanting to do it is another thing.
vintagetoppsguy
09-28-2016, 08:49 AM
...I am very curious though why VCP continues to present these closed prices when cards are NOT paid for...
I understand your point, but how is VCP supposed to know which auction items are paid for and which are not?
Snapolit1
09-28-2016, 08:51 AM
I'd be happy if VCP even listed all the recent sales. I bought a number of higher end cards in the last year -- a few off ebay -- and they are listed nowhere. Pretty inexplicable.
ezez420
09-28-2016, 08:59 AM
How? VCP pulls data from houses if they permit. You can see which houses permit. I think to help the hobby, they can help by sending data to VCP of cards that are not paid for. VCP can do a better job of making sure there data is accurate. Especially on cards that do not sell often.
packs
09-28-2016, 09:53 AM
VCP is just a data mine. All of the information on VCP is information available to you as well if you search for it. You wouldn't know anything beyond a sale price unless you spoke to the buyer or the seller. I don't think it's fair to put that initiative on a service like VCP.
Beastmode
09-28-2016, 10:43 AM
VCP is just a data mine. All of the information on VCP is information available to you as well if you search for it. You wouldn't know anything beyond a sale price unless you spoke to the buyer or the seller. I don't think it's fair to put that initiative on a service like VCP.
++ Don't kill the messenger (VCP). I love VCP and consider it a great resource. I also use POP reports, ebay completed sales, and if available, an AH"s archieves.
There at lots of outliers in VCP you need to ignore, (from the "buying-group" especially). It's not all subjective either. You need to see the trends and get a feel for demand, scarcity, and your own gut.
Always stay within your budget and you will never have to worry about shilling. This is a hobby, learn to enjoy coming in second.
I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."
tschock
09-28-2016, 10:59 AM
I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."
And it's not in their best interests. Lower realized prices this time lead to lower potential next time (in the psyche of the bidders).
A fair compromise is if VCP helps an auction house with packaging then the auction house will crunch those numbers for them.
ezez420
09-28-2016, 11:13 AM
That is a terrible reason. This is a data feed. I would guess it would effect the online eBay auction houses the most but a program could be developed to feed this data at the end of the auction rather than instantaneously.
It is in their best interest to do it as ultimately people will be deterred from collecting. Which in turn leads to less consignments. Do you not think that many have not been deterred already from the precipitous manipulated drop in prices from before the National?
I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."
packs
09-28-2016, 12:46 PM
I don't think a deterrence would have to do with reported sales prices. I think any drop in auction house participation is a reflection of mistrust.
36GoudeyMan
09-28-2016, 12:50 PM
Not sure I know what/who that is, and what they do....
Baseball Bob
09-28-2016, 12:51 PM
Two thoughts/comments:
1). It's kind of early to call a market top when it has been just two months since the National; and no one who sees a 5000% price run-up and shouts "bubble!" is really a genius, are they?
2) VCP only ought to be used as a guide. Given the huge number of direct untraceable transactions that take place out there, they can only see a small fraction of the market and only that which wants to divulge itself to them. They are not "market police".
Best to cut them a break...
Eric
Snapolit1
09-28-2016, 02:53 PM
As far as I can tell the "buying group" is a coordinated cabal of know nothing billionaire bankers from New York City who have gotten done manipulating all sorts of markets (real estate, art, pork bellies, orange juice futures) and have now moved on to modern Topps rookie issues from the 1960s. Just a guess though.
MattyC
09-28-2016, 03:20 PM
Do you not think that many have not been deterred already from the precipitous manipulated drop in prices from before the National?
If one looks at an anomaly or outlier "sale" as either just that, or something more nefarious, such as a fake sale, then one logically shouldn't view subsequent prices lower that that data point as a "precipitous drop."
In other words, the real error in judgment is in looking at one or more outliers-- be they real sales or fake-- and assuming that was the new market.
Re: VCP, it's just a site that aggregates some data. As others have said, interpretation of that incomplete data is on the individual's shoulders.
Peter_Spaeth
09-28-2016, 03:39 PM
I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."
And I hate to say it, but it's in the AH's interest for people to think the sale was real.
And I hate to say it, but it's in the AH's interest for people to think the sale was real.
Exactly. Very good for business and brings in loads of consignments. Smoke and mirrors.
Snapolit1
09-28-2016, 04:04 PM
A rising tide lifts all PSA 9s and Gem Mint 10s.
tschock
09-28-2016, 06:01 PM
All PSA 9s are equal, but some are more equal than others.
bobbyw8469
09-28-2016, 06:37 PM
All PSA 9s are equal, but some are more equal than others.
To quote Bachman, Turner, Overdrive.....Down, Down, we all go down!
Donscards
09-28-2016, 07:13 PM
This topic is very interesting, I am a old timer---I started with flea markets and small shows in 1977---In those days, we didn't even have a beckett--what we went by was our knowledge of the hobby---We knew what cards were hot and went with our instincts. Times have changed---now it is VCP--Ebay--Auctions--etc---Nobody uses Beckett and even the smr is outdated the minute it comes out.---Now when I have to make a sale, the buyer uses his iphone or ipad before he pulls the trigger. Boy, for the Good old days----oh well, this hobby has treated me well and it still a lot of fun (most of the time).
Jewish-collector
09-28-2016, 08:30 PM
As Tom Cruise in Risky Business said, "Sometimes you gotta say WTF"
steve B
09-28-2016, 08:53 PM
Exactly. Very good for business and brings in loads of consignments. Smoke and mirrors.
I looked for it a bit, but I saw an auction catalog in another hobby that was primarily stuff that hadn't been paid for over the last several auctions. The intro was pretty harsh, not undeserved just a bit surprising.
I'll have another look for it and see if I can't find the catalog online.
Steve B
Exhibitman
09-29-2016, 06:54 AM
Sounds like the OP got crispy crittered on some buys.
I dropped pricing data from my latest book because of the shilling and the existence of real time price data. VCP is quite useful for mapping not just prices but also frequency of sales. That is often more important than price for vintage and regional cards.
Anyone who thinks postwar mainstream cards are not going to fluctuate is delusional. Too many examples exist for prices to just go up and up endlessly. I've been collecting since the 1970s. I've seen over and over how prices run up and then copies of the cards pour into the market. I know guys who had high end cards and who've dumped them and downgraded because the profit taking opportunity is too good to pass up.
The AHs have no duty to ferret out bad sales; I am not sure they could even do so without going in and specially altering their software, which ain't gonna happen.
Calling market tops is inherently guesswork: never wrong, only early. I see strong prices on a wide variety of issues that are not worth enough to be manipulated by a cabal of billionaires. That's just the byproduct of a long expansion of the general economy and the resulting cash collectors have right now.
And they're freakin baseball cards. If you have to obsess over market manipulation and cabals of billionaires you need to get a different hobby.
autograf
09-29-2016, 07:16 AM
That would make for a good music group name...........Cabal of Billionaires........someone call Al............
Peter_Spaeth
09-29-2016, 07:28 AM
I prefer coteries to cabals.
BobbyVCP
09-29-2016, 01:05 PM
Just wanted to chime in on the thread. As you all know I am with VCP. Whenever a problem is reported to us we look into the matter and correct it usually within minutes. Another thing to keep in mind is in our average pricing it takes into consideration how many sales in the past year. And based on that number it eliminates high and low sales and averages out the rest. So when there is a crazy high sale in most circumstances that is not averaged into the price.
If the auction houses would report to us lots that did not sell we would gladly delete them from our database. Same thing if you are a seller and your eBay auction did not go through we will again delete it.
We try our best to get as much information as possible to better educate you the buyer or seller.
To date we have over 8 million auction results with over 9 million images. That is a lot of information available for you to use.
GasHouseGang
09-29-2016, 02:13 PM
Bobby, I think VCP provides a great service, and like any price guide, it's only as good as the data. I was wondering why sometimes VCP will list a sale price for an item on ebay, but when you click the link and see the item on ebay, it has a different sale price? Does this happen because of a bid retraction that VCP was made aware of, and then the final sale price is corrected?
spaidly
09-29-2016, 05:28 PM
I can vouch for Bobby's comment about fixing things. I enjoy the portfolio aspect of the My Collection feature. I noticed my 1955 Jackie Robinson PSA 7.5 was way down in value. I did a little digging and it turns out a the sale of a reprint made its way into the data. I clicked the Problem with This Page link, reported it, and it was deleted the next day. My Brooklyn Dodger portfolio was looking stronger and all was right in the world. I'm a hybrid collector/investor so seeing my buying decisions reflected there, good or bad, is really fun for me. I think VPC is a great resource but by itself it is like buying holders rather than cards. So many variants with each card within each grade makes it a great guide.
Scott
Sounds like the OP got crispy crittered on some buys.
I wouldn't doubt it as a lot of collectors did, no doubt.
VCP or any guide is just that, a guide. Our cards in the pre-ww II arena are not like the post war ones inasmuch as they are not as abundant and are usually lower in grade, overall. Therefore there is more relativity in their eye appeal and their value. Of course high end and high dollar post war cards have some of those characteristics too. In other words buy the card not the holder. And don't fall for any crazy ebay or other prices. Look for averages and do your homework. And if you are an average-Joe collector like most of us stay away from the highest grade Rose rookies and their ilk.....
ullmandds
09-30-2016, 06:56 AM
I wouldn't doubt it as a lot of collectors did, no doubt.
VCP or any guide is just that, a guide. Our cards in the pre-ww II arena are not like the post war ones inasmuch as they are not as abundant and are usually lower in grade, overall. Therefore there is more relativity in their eye appeal and their value. Of course high end and high dollar post war cards have some of those characteristics too. In other words buy the card not the holder. And don't fall for any crazy ebay or other prices. Look for averages and do your homework. And if you are an average-Joe collector like most of us stay away from the highest grade Rose rookies and their ilk.....
It's so interesting/funny to me how a lot of collectors these days expect up to the minute, accurate pricing info on cards as if they were an ounce of gold or a kilo of coffee.
The "problems" with the hobby, imo, lies more with the collectors than with services like vcp.
BobbyVCP
09-30-2016, 11:22 AM
Bobby, I think VCP provides a great service, and like any price guide, it's only as good as the data. I was wondering why sometimes VCP will list a sale price for an item on ebay, but when you click the link and see the item on ebay, it has a different sale price? Does this happen because of a bid retraction that VCP was made aware of, and then the final sale price is corrected?
We've looked extensively into this issue and have been in contact with our eBay representative. It seems to happen only with Best Offer listings even though at times it will not indicate that it's a BO listing on the site. The issue is that the eBay API is reporting a different price than what is found on the eBay site. We've pointed this out to eBay and they say that the API price is the correct one but they are not clear about when they can fix it. Our hands are tied on this one. We can't force them to fix something that's broken.
ezez420
09-30-2016, 01:36 PM
Thanks for responding Bobby. It seems as if you would take that info of sales that did not go through and welcome it. That is appreciated. It seems it is up to the auction houses that do report to do that.
However, some say they wont which is not in their best interest. Why dont some that report speak up then. I am sure it is pretty easy to have a list of non payers so data is accurate. Not that hard or dont report. But maybe it will shut a couple houses down especially the ones who allow shilling to boot.
ezez420
09-30-2016, 03:38 PM
Adam, I am the poster and not sure what part of the field we are referencing. To clarify for you I had no issues or losses nor am I a shiller. But by all means if you want to openly discuss the baths you have taken with boxing collectibles feel free to post. All ears.
Sounds like the OP got crispy crittered on some buys.
I dropped pricing data from my latest book because of the shilling and the existence of real time price data. VCP is quite useful for mapping not just prices but also frequency of sales. That is often more important than price for vintage and regional cards.
Anyone who thinks postwar mainstream cards are not going to fluctuate is delusional. Too many examples exist for prices to just go up and up endlessly. I've been collecting since the 1970s. I've seen over and over how prices run up and then copies of the cards pour into the market. I know guys who had high end cards and who've dumped them and downgraded because the profit taking opportunity is too good to pass up.
The AHs have no duty to ferret out bad sales; I am not sure they could even do so without going in and specially altering their software, which ain't gonna happen.
Calling market tops is inherently guesswork: never wrong, only early. I see strong prices on a wide variety of issues that are not worth enough to be manipulated by a cabal of billionaires. That's just the byproduct of a long expansion of the general economy and the resulting cash collectors have right now.
And they're freakin baseball cards. If you have to obsess over market manipulation and cabals of billionaires you need to get a different hobby.
Honestly I can't imagine any AH reporting non paying bidders to another company for data purposes. More work and it's not their job to report those things....It would be nice but so would a lot of things :).
Thanks for responding Bobby. It seems as if you would take that info of sales that did not go through and welcome it. That is appreciated. It seems it is up to the auction houses that do report to do that.
However, some say they wont which is not in their best interest. Why dont some that report speak up then. I am sure it is pretty easy to have a list of non payers so data is accurate. Not that hard or dont report. But maybe it will shut a couple houses down especially the ones who allow shilling to boot.
ksabet
10-01-2016, 07:06 AM
As far as I can tell the "buying group" is a coordinated cabal of know nothing billionaire bankers from New York City who have gotten done manipulating all sorts of markets (real estate, art, pork bellies, orange juice futures) and have now moved on to modern Topps rookie issues from the 1960s. Just a guess though.
LOL +1
We should have Beeks look into it
ezez420
10-01-2016, 07:27 AM
My point of this entire topic was to attempt to fix an ongoing issue. And yes I appreciate Bobby chiming as it provides some info. No auction house has chimed in yet to see how they handle it. I am curious on the % of non payers or data that could be inaccurate. Here is the point.
A) if you are allowing your data to be taken for public use (IE VCP) and people rely on this data it has got to be accurate or pretty close to accurate to a point
B) Auction houses providing knowingly false information to the public will cause mistrust and people dropping out of hobby. Yes this is what it is but you see it within the show circuit past couple of months.
C) Whether it be a fake labeled card being sold through an auction house or a card that someone won and did not pay for. For example were these $130-$150K Rose PSA 9 Rookies really paid for (just picked a card that is so out of whack, not picking on anyone). If the information provided to VCP is KNOWINGLY incorrect then they are misleading the public. The auction house can say and play dumb however they want but it actually is their obligation. I am sure the Lawyers out there could chime in. Nobody else aside from a shiller, non payer and the auction house know whether a card is paid for or not.
D) VCP is a PAY site and therefore information should be accurate otherwise they should not be using the auction houses data to produce in.
The point is some houses know they are providing false information on some cards and care more about lining pockets then providing a true accurate source.
buymycards
10-01-2016, 08:01 AM
Ed, I understand your point about auction houses, but for many years we have been using Beckett as a price guide, even though Beckett is completely out of touch with reality. The pricing is provided by dealers input, and the dealers are trying to keep prices high.
We have the same issue with the SMR. It seems that SMR pricing is just a wild guess and their pricing does not reflect the prices that being paid at shows and on eBay.
At least VCP is using actual sales data for their pricing. Yes, some of it is incorrect, but my guess is that 95% of the sales data is right on the mark.
Rick
Exhibitman
10-01-2016, 08:27 AM
I don't think anyone looks at single prices as market prices. VCP provides trending information that guides buyers. That's all. There are no fraud issues there. An AH granting gratuitous access to its data isn't attempting to induce anyone to do anything with it. VCP by its own design is merely a database and also isn't trying to induce its members to act. And if it is 90% accurate it is still way better than anything else in terms of both real time and accuracy.
As for my buys, yup I have taken some brutal losses all around. All sports and nonsports too. That's what you get when you spent a lot on cards in 2005-2008. That's not VCP's fault; all me. And the cabal of billionaires...
ezez420
10-01-2016, 09:50 AM
Good points. Smr is put out by PSA and technically can put whatever info on value of cards. SMR is just a guide. Same as Beckett. VCP is supposed to be actual real sales data. And if the sales data is not correct or falsified how does someone know besides the auction house. Especially on rarer issues that do not sell often?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Good points. Smr is put out by PSA and technically can put whatever info on value of cards. SMR is just a guide. Same as Beckett. VCP is supposed to be actual real sales data. And if the sales data is not correct or falsified how does someone know besides the auction house. Especially on rarer issues that do not sell often?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
If some of the data that is reported by auction houses is not correct, it would still not be correct even if VCP were not collecting such data. VCP is simply recording final results of sales. Responsibility is with the ebay seller or auction house to omit, when applicable, items not paid for or items which they know were manipulated and that is not going to ever happen.
jstef
10-01-2016, 11:01 AM
I look at the card image, if available, on VCP to see if it had been sold more than once. An example would be the 1971 Brooks Robinson in SGC 88. On VCP, there is an instance where a dealer had several transactions involving the card. By looking at the image,you can see each transaction involved the same card, which would indicate the possibility that the dealer had several non-pays.