Future of grading...

[CrackaJackKid]

Just curious as to where most of you see grading in 10-15 years? Lately I've seen so much negativity towards PSA from inconsistency to biased grading. Even though they seem to dominate the market over SGC and Beckett (as far as resale value) will it last? For me personally as ridiculous as it sounds I only prefer PSA cause I collect Cracker Jacks and like the way the red background meshes with the red PSA label.

[yanks4]

I don't agree at all.......... Cracker Jacks should be in SGC only.....Really Can't beat that Black Background and red card.....Gorgeous!!!!!

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

I'm with Bobby...PSA all the way.

[EvilKing00]

in order i my choice is sgc, bvg then psa.

[swarmee]

I don't see a change from PSA controlling the vast market share. Their bulk pricing is the best, their prices realized are the best historically, and their set registry and pop reports are the best and most used in the industry.

[CrackaJackKid]

Anyone think there's a possibility of a brand new grading service emerging that could capture the market?

[steve B]

Yes, I think there's room for another grading service.

Just not one that operates the same way as any of the big three currently operate.

I have a feeling that if the right sort of grading company starts up, and has the right funding and the right setup it's possible none of the current top 3 will be operating unless they change in some major ways.

I've seen a couple things recently that have convinced me that all of the current group really aren't doing much of a good job.

Slower, more reliable, and yes, that implies more expensive.

Steve B

[Bram99]

I think that e-Commerce and the demise of shows and person to person dealing without an intermediary like an auction house or site makes grading essential.

I also have concerns / complaints over PSA's grading. The mere fact that they encourage me to send a card in for re-grading despite their supposed grading by one human and another who does peer review (I have the emails where they told me to do so), tells me that they have become more interested in profit maximization than long-term customer satisfaction. For that reason, I do believe there is room for a 3rd party grader to overtake PSA - and SGC seems best positioned at the moment.

It takes time for such transitions, but one thing is for sure, and that is that there are plenty of sellers out there that a grading service helps to protect us from. See the eBay ratings and feedback for Battlefield 0516 from all of their "beautiful, breathtaking, etc." cards that people have been dissatisfied with. That is what makes the future of grading bright.

[CrackaJackKid]

PSA was so much more lenient 5-10 years ago on their grading but claim their standards have not changed. They graded the trimmed Wagner and didn't catch it. They also claim there's no perks for wealthy/celebrity type individuals who submit cards for grading which I think is bs. It's all about the all mighty dollar.

[nhsportsguy]

Let me ask you this - what would a new grading company have to do to differentiate themselves from the 3 big companies now? Is it simply a matter of being less expensive and having quicker turnaround? Are you looking for a company to innovate a way to make something subjective objective?

[steve B]

Let me ask you this - what would a new grading company have to do to differentiate themselves from the 3 big companies now? Is it simply a matter of being less expensive and having quicker turnaround? Are you looking for a company to innovate a way to make something subjective objective?

No, the opposite of that. Slower, a bit more expensive, but with far fewer mistakes. Maybe a detailed report indicating the reasons for the grade. Plenty of room for better holders all around, and maybe giving some choice of holders.

Really, other than dealers not wanting cash tied up for any length of time at all and probably a nervous insurance company, there's no good reason to rush the more valuable cards and take a long time on the cheap ones. That's entirely backwards to how it's done in many other hobbies (If it's done at all)

The report could be digital, or printed, or both.
Maybe a registry that allows cards from other companies to be entered, perhaps with a bit of weighting in favor of the new company.

Steve B

[CrackaJackKid]

Consistency,honesty,affordability. Details about why grades got what they did. Just to name a few.

[nhsportsguy]

So is the issue that grading companies aren't being thorough enough, or that the process itself is subjective?

And as for reasons for a grade, does Beckett's use of sub grades address that concern?

[CrackaJackKid]

Id say not being thorough enough. Off topic of a story I wanted to share. 6 years ago I bought a 1914 CJ Joe Birmingham PSA 4. Over the years of me moving back and forth the case end up getting damaged and I thought I better get it reholdered for future value in the resale. So I submitted to PSA for reholder, (still in the PSA slab)..and they said they found evidence of tampering with the case and they had to regrade it cause it's their policy. They called me to make sure that was ok and with sending it in still slabbed I felt I had nothing to worry about. They came to the conclusion it had excess staining which dropped it from a 4 to a 2. But yet standards have not changed???

[iwantitiwinit]

Yes, I think there's room for another grading service.

Just not one that operates the same way as any of the big three currently operate.

I have a feeling that if the right sort of grading company starts up, and has the right funding and the right setup it's possible none of the current top 3 will be operating unless they change in some major ways.

I've seen a couple things recently that have convinced me that all of the current group really aren't doing much of a good job.

Slower, more reliable, and yes, that implies more expensive.

Steve B


I don't know if I agree that another grading company could be successful much less supplant PSA and even SGC. I would think that a high percentage of high dollar/high grade cards have already been graded by either psa or sgc. If I had a large quantity of say t206 graded 6 or higher what would be my motivation to have them regraded by another company regardless of their reputation? That regrade might result in lower grades and therefore lesser value. Now might a new company emerge that can garner a portion of newer card submissions, sure, there are a plethora of post 1976 card issues that haven't yet been encased but I think they would have a tough time grabbing any market share in the pre-1977 category. If PSA or SGC went bankrupt that would be another story.

[Bram99]

It is about consistency, integrity, customer service. Value for the service. The cost for the service needs to provide both peace of mind to the collector and a premium to the customer looking to sell.

[kmac32]

I could basically care less about what a card I send in gets for a grade. In my case, it is about preserving and protecting the cards. I like to handle and look at my cards and personally I like the presentation of SGC slabs. If a card gets a good grade, that is fantastic but I also have some real beaters in slabs. Graders will always be around so there will always be a future for them especially with prewar cards

[Nick55]

This subtopic on the dynamics of PSA's grading standards comes up from time to time. When confronted about it, the typical response I've seen from PSA is that their standards have not changed at all, and technically, they're correct (i.e., the wording of the standards has not changed). In my view, what has changed is their application of the standards, which is a whole different issue. In other words, I think they apply (and interpret) the standards much more stringently today than they did even a few years ago.

[Billy5858]

No, the opposite of that. Slower, a bit more expensive, but with far fewer mistakes. Maybe a detailed report indicating the reasons for the grade. Plenty of room for better holders all around, and maybe giving some choice of holders.

Really, other than dealers not wanting cash tied up for any length of time at all and probably a nervous insurance company, there's no good reason to rush the more valuable cards and take a long time on the cheap ones. That's entirely backwards to how it's done in many other hobbies (If it's done at all)

The report could be digital, or printed, or both.
Maybe a registry that allows cards from other companies to be entered, perhaps with a bit of weighting in favor of the new company.

Steve B


+1

And how about a very high quality slab for
very valuable cards. Not that it matters to me
I'm a peon. But I still don't get how a T206
common is encased in the same holder as
The Wagner. Should be bulletproof shatterproof
Waterproof and weatherproof

[irv]

I could basically care less about what a card I send in gets for a grade. In my case, it is about preserving and protecting the cards. I like to handle and look at my cards and personally I like the presentation of SGC slabs. If a card gets a good grade, that is fantastic but I also have some real beaters in slabs. Graders will always be around so there will always be a future for them especially with prewar cards

Me too.

I have never sent a card in for grading, but of the cards that I have purchased, PSA, SGC and BVG copies, I like the SGC slabs best.

I like the fact BVG's (Beckett) slabs are the toughest to crack open and the fact that if you do purchase one already graded by them, you stand the best chance that what you are purchasing is in fact that card and not something that might have been added after.

I know PSA is the most popular but they are also the most easiest slab to crack into in order to place counterfeits/fakes in. That concerns me, that the most popular grading company has the easiest slabs to crack open. :confused:

[bnorth]

I would like to see a combination of several companies.

1 The slab. I like the new PSA slabs but would love to see a smaller black insert like the old GAI slabs had.

2 The quality and consistency of SGC in the actual grading of the card.

3 The detailed grades like Beckett uses. Corners, Edges, Surface, Centering

4 The registry like PSA. Only recently found out how cool that is.

5 Quality costumer service.

I know all that is a lot to ask for but wouldn't it be awesome.:)

[CrackaJackKid]

I like them ideas Ben!!

[irv]

I would like to see a combination of several companies.

1 The slab. I like the new PSA slabs but would love to see a smaller black insert like the old GAI slabs had.

2 The quality and consistency of SGC in the actual grading of the card.

3 The detailed grades like Beckett uses. Corners, Edges, Surface, Centering

4 The registry like PSA. Only recently found out how cool that is.

5 Quality costumer service.

I know all that is a lot to ask for but wouldn't it be awesome.:)

All great ideas, but I must say, I like #3 the best.

[Econteachert205]

A new or revamped grading service will emerge that concentrates on high end, high priced cards only with more detailed grading and better security features.

[Billy5858]

A new or revamped grading service will emerge that concentrates on high end, high priced cards only with more detailed grading and better security features.

+1 Special consideration for special cards.
Not all graded cards need to be treated equally.
Pay extra for the very high Enders

[1952boyntoncollector]

A new grading company could emerge secondarily to getting a high amount of traffic/customers on their site.

One example is one of those companies that gives historical pricing. If they later went into the card grading business that would be an entryway.


Another example could be an owner registry site. This would be a site where everyone could register thier 1952 Mantles no matter the grading company and people can confirm a new purchase isnt a duplicate.

Another example can be a super registry site. This site would be a much cooler registry site and also factor in grades from other grading companys to have the 'best set ever' and not just with PSA..

Basically a grading company cant come out of nowhere. I know the normal come out of nowhere process would be former respected graders from PSA etc, but i think it would take an already popular business that people respected and then respected graders etc..

[swarmee]

Would anyone give credence to a registry site that permitted other TPG grades? What graders would those registry sets accept? PSA, SGC, BVG/BGS, KSA?, ISA? PRO?, all of them?

I can see the SGC and maybe Beckett people getting behind a better registry site, but the PSA people will thumb their nose at sheet cut Gretzky rookies and short BGS Jeter rookies, and not go through all the work to import their cards to another competitor site.

People are loyal to their grading company of choice like smokers are to their brand. PSA is still Marlboro. Or Microsoft. Or Coca Cola. They are the vast majority of the market, and once a company gets to that position, it is rare to give it up.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Would anyone give credence to a registry site that permitted other TPG grades? What graders would those registry sets accept? PSA, SGC, BVG/BGS, KSA?, ISA? PRO?, all of them?

I can see the SGC and maybe Beckett people getting behind a better registry site, but the PSA people will thumb their nose at sheet cut Gretzky rookies and short BGS Jeter rookies, and not go through all the work to import their cards to another competitor site.

People are loyal to their grading company of choice like smokers are to their brand. PSA is still Marlboro. Or Microsoft. Or Coca Cola. They are the vast majority of the market, and once a company gets to that position, it is rare to give it up.

well if you have a registry company that claims they are re-grading all known grading company submissions when they enter it into a super master registry..they are halfway there to being a new grading company. They could also have sub grades to psa 8s (for database purposes) and call them 8.2s etc for owner registry purposes to beat out an offcentered psa 8. Dont need to make up new flips, its just what would be entered into the database. So if one guy has a psa 8 set..he may now be behind someone else's psa 8 set as a third party determined who had a better set etc

[swarmee]

well if you have a registry company that claims they are re-grading all known grading company submissions when they enter it into a super master registry.
Best you guys can hope for is that someone buys out PSA. Nobody is going to send all their PSA graded cards to a currently unknown TPG to get regraded for a currently unbuilt registry website. As I've said before in these recurring threads, the only way another company comes in is if they DRASTICALLY UNDERCUT the price of PSA's $6/card bulk submission specials.

Nothing else will make a dent, IMO. Maybe Beckett buys out SGC, and loads their black gaskets into the BVG holders? And takes over SGC's lousy website and integrates it with Becketts?

Hearing the reports at the National of PSA grading being slammed all week and the SGC employees either "twiddling their thumbs" or "looking like sad puppies" make me think the battle has already been lost.

[Bigdaddy]

I believe that there is room for a new company to come out of nowhere and bring a computer based grading service to the table. I know this has been discussed before, but with all the talk of inconsistency, 'eye appeal' and changing standards, I could see a 'software weenie' developing some code that would put today's graders to shame. There are so many optical recognition codes out there now including facial recognition - Facebook can tell me who's in a photo before I can tag it, it seems like it would be low-hanging fruit to optically measure borders, color, registration, corner wear, etc and give them numerical grades and then combine those grades into an overall grade that is more in line with what we call 'eye appeal'. And then also to bring some innovation into the registry.

[rhettyeakley]

Honestly, if SGC and BVG weren't the worst run companies of all time I think they would have a shot at cutting into the PSA market share.

In all reality for years SGC was the preferred company for many of the folks here and still were a major player in the vintage market, that foothold has weakened over the past few years. Some of the most significant vintage collections in the world are graded by SGC--- market the heck out of THAT! All that being said, why they have never embraced a truly usable pop report and why they haven't embraced the registry aspect is beyond me! They had an opportunity for years to do something but they painted themselves into a corner through lack of marketing and overall indifference to the registry, now I fear it is too late. From a business aspect they have been run VERY POORLY.

BVG has a lot of good guys that work for them but like all things with the Beckett name attached to it they become a jack of literally ALL TRADES and a master of NONE. The fact they own a auction house and also grade is a major problem, but then as if to prove how little they value their own grading service they have nearly all cards in their own auctions graded by PSA or SGC!!!

Also, I may be in the minority but I HATE the subgrades with Beckett, way to convoluted, I have a feeling I'm not alone? Their holders also suck to remove the cards from (as a habitual freer of vintage cardboard!) :D

[1952boyntoncollector]

There is also some room for PSA to make even more money

If they had mid grade level sets on the registry. Like the best PSA 5 1952 topps, suddenly there could be more of a demand of PSA 5s and a more affordable option to be key of the registry. Thats just one example

[BBB]

I'm surprised PSA hasn't just offered a premium service. If you want a cooler slab, more eyes on it, detailed scoring - then pay a bit more and you get it - maybe they're avoiding the detailed scoring as it gives people another thing to hold them accountable for I.e. "Why is that a 4 and mine a 3? The detailed grades are identical"


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BobC]

I don't post often and usually say nothing about grading. I prefer raw cards, when I can find them, and would rather look at and value them myself. I don't really collect for resale or investment purposes, just for the enjoyment. Usually when one of these types of threads come up there are the usual suspects who either support or bash the grading companies. I'm not doing either. The grading companies have certainly been helpful in providing a more "level" and "reliable" source of grading, which has allowed the internet to take over the sales and distribution of cards, and contributed mightily to the demise of card shops and shows, much to the detriment of many. The introduction of registries and population reports then helped to fuel the desire to obtain certain cards, which in turn helped to expand and grow the marketplace and assist in the rise in pricing we've seen over the years. Meanwhile, it is common knowledge that it is humans doing the reviewing, grading and encapsulation of these cards, and we all know that humans are just that, human! And with it comes all the foibles of being human; inconsistency, emotions, up-days, down-days, greed, the whole gamut of feelings and weaknesses that we as the human animal posses. Grading will never be truly perfect but, it doesn't need to be. The mantra that many on here religiously preach and follow, "Buy the card and not the holder!" will always be true and maybe never more true than it is today.

For the current grading companies, or any future newcomers to the ranks, to continue to grow and provide valuable services to the collector community, the greatest challenge I see in them all going forward has to do with TRUST. And by that I mean not only that a card is being accurately graded but, that it is also authentic and that it has not been tampered with in any way, shape or form once it has gone through the grading process. Can we trust the grading companies to be independent in their actions and dealings? Can we trust them, to the extent possible, to always adhere to common and accepted standards and practices and act consistently? Can we trust them to be honest and forthright with us? And maybe most importantly, can we trust them to be financially responsible for their shortcomings?

In this current market with what I can only describe as ridiculous prices for highly-graded cards, the 8s, 9s and gem mint 10s that are out there, I think it is fairly obvious that these pricing trends are NOT being driven by the true collectors out there. They are being driven by people looking at these cards from almost a pure investment standpoint, and nothing else. But with the old saying, "All boats rise with the tide.", a lot of collectors and dealers are jumping on the bandwagon and either selling their cards for historically insanely high prices, or looking to acquire them today to take advantage of a hopeful continual rise in prices so they can cash in tomorrow. You can't blame someone for cashing in when people are sticking handfuls of money in their faces for little pieces of cardboard. On the other hand, jumping onto the bandwagon and buying such high-graded cards in the current market, hoping to turn around a nice profit as they supposedly keep appreciating, smacks of the problem that was occurring back in the 80s when people were buying up rookie cards left and right and dreaming about how in 10 or 20 years they'd sell them and retire as multi-millionaires when all these rookies retired and ended up going into the HOF. (How'd that work out for all those people?)

If this current market is going to be driven and fueled a lot by the investment community, the grading companies are currently, in my opinion, sorely deficient and lacking in the service they provide. Just look at the recent spate of issues with fake or replaced cards in holders that are out there. Leon has said he has spoken with one person himself, out of Mexico, who makes no qualms about creating and dealing in faked cards and holders. I've seen and actually held some of these "fakes" in graded holders myself, and I have to tell you, they are absolutely scary in how perfect they are. Right down to the flips and everything. And as these ridiculous prices seem to continue to rise, it is evident that the bad element of humankind will seek to derive a way to take advantage of these crazy price trends and cash in for themselves and dishonestly separate good people from their money.

It has gotten to the point where the grading companies and their services are actually creating value where it otherwise formerly wasn't. A raw Mantle card is worth one amount to most people but, put that same Mantle card into a "10" graded holder and you've just increased the value astronomically, whether it is deserved or not. The way these grading companies and their holders are being treated it is scarily akin to printing money. Yet, what measures do the grading companies take to really insure that no one can copy or break into their holders, or to influence their employees to give out undeserved grades or show favoritism to certain big dealers/submitters, or to even assign consistent, accurate grades to begin with? As far as I can tell, not much. They are also fairly tight-lipped and somewhat secretive about their internal practices. Why? You would think that in serving the collecting community and providing that "Trust" that it needs, they would be much more transparent than they have ever been.

I've been a CPA for almost 40 years, and the one sole purpose of a CPA is to attest to the financial statements of their clients, which are used by banks, lenders, investors, stock markets, and a myriad of others to use as a measure of value, worth and financial health of those client companies. Not really too dissimilar from a grade that a third-party grading company puts on a card. In both cases, be it card grades or the attestations results of a CPA's audit, the result rendered is an OPINION on the grade/health/condition of both the cards and the companies in question, not a statement of complete fact. CPAs don't try to kid anyone and tell you that things are written in stone. We admit we may not catch everything and that things can change over time. CPAs also have to submit to a standardized set of rules and regulations in regards to audits and attest examinations that we perform and belong to a nationally organized group, and follow the rules and regulations that national group promulgates. There are literally thousands of accounting firms and CPAs across this country yet, we all must follow the same set of rules in order to continue practicing. Included in that set of rules is a very strict requirement of INDEPENDENCE in regards to our clients. Even though we are paid by our clients, we must still act on behalf of the public at large and must be independent from our clients for whom we provide such attestation services in both fact AND appearance. Likewise, we must be transparent in what we do and have to submit to periodic peer reviews from fellow CPAs/accounting firms who go through a sample of our practices, reports, training and everything we do in regards to out attestation work to insure as much as possible that we are following the same reporting rules and using the exact same standards for all client examinations, regardless of which CPA or CPA firm is doing it. How do you think any one of the grading companies would feel about every couple years or so having to open up their doors to let a rival grading company or some other organization in to see what they're doing, and how they're doing it, so as to insure that they are following the rules, standards and practices being put forth by an independent group that is setting the standards for grading all cards, and not just following standards of their own design? And then following all that, have a report put out about them that the public can see to tell how good of a job they've been doing? If the grading companies are truly looking out for the best interests of the collecting community as a whole, they should look into self-regulation and standardization of practices and grading criteria across the board. If not, then who's interests do you think they are really looking out for?

I also mentioned Independence as an integral part of what a CPA must be in relation to their clients. I remember not too long ago the report came out about supposedly which people were possibly involved in the shill bidding on Mastro auctions in the past. If my memory is correct, didn't that list include some employees, officers or even owners of third party grading companies? And yet despite a bit of righteous indignation put forth in that thread, there really wasn't much else said or done about it, nor any real follow-up or other repercussions that seemed to result from it. That just amazes me as that is truly a horrendous display of the lack of Independence then displayed by these grading companies. You can say what you want but, in my opinion, if these third party grading companies, as well as their employees, officers and owners, are in any way involved in the ownership and sales of their own graded cards, that should not be allowed, and they should be subject to investigation and possible fines, censure and the possibility of being denied the right to continue to grade cards. If that type of information was to come out about a CPA and how they acted, they could be subject to fines, censure and possible loss of their licensing and ability to continue doing what they were doing. In other words, if I put out an audit opinion for a company in which I was not independent, I could be be fined, reprimanded, ordered to undergo additional training and even be subject to losing my license.

Sorry for the long rant but, I see these threads coming up time and again with the same debates and rhetoric they always get. Without some form of standardization and regulation to at least try to guarantee some accuracy and consistency in grading, we could end up with all kinds of fake cards and improperly graded cards floating around out there that undermine the hobby and create mistrust amongst collectors and investors alike. As there is more mistrust, ultimately the value of items and the hobby itself takes a hit. Go back to the times of Enron or Bernie Madoff and see how they impacted the financial community and markets. In those instances, CPAs, Congress, the SEC and others in both government and private industry rose up to enact new and more stringent rules and regulations to deter and hopefully eliminate any such recurrences like those, going forward. I'm not foolish enough to believe our card collecting hobby and community are anywhere near the level of the stock markets and the SEC but, the principles are basically the same. If the Trust in the markets and the people that attest to the worth and value of companies they look at gets diminished in any way, the economic hit can be devastating to the market as a whole, just like if the Trust in third party graders and in the cards they grade becomes less and less trustworthy, the same negative impact is inevitable for the card collecting community also.

It doesn't look like the current crop of third party grading companies has any interest in banding together to create a centralized, unified set of rules and grading standards because it doesn't do anything for them economically. And the card collecting hobby itself isn't so big that the government would see fit to jump in and force some standardization and oversight like it has done with the financial and stock markets. The only way I could ever see this happening anytime in the near future is if the collectors themselves finally all got together and more or less demanded it of the third party grading companies. How would they do it, simple. Get together and quit buying their services unless they do what we really need them to do.

Unfortunately, the reality of that actually happening is most likely nil. To do so, you'd have to get the majority of collectors to agree to operate in this manner going forward. You'd have to get them to determine a standard, consistent set of grading criteria that they all could agree upon. You'd have to get them to basically regrade everything that has already been graded to conform to the new codified standards. And you'd have to get someone to agree to oversee the third party grading companies. Where would all the money for this come from? How would you get the average, casual collector to buy-in to such a program? Who would attempt to oversee it? These are virtually impossible questions to answer given the current state of the hobby. Currently, the powers that be in the hobby are in control of the money and how things go. I don't see them relinquishing that control anytime soon, without one helluva fight at least. Seems that dealers and auction houses wouldn't want to rock the boat as they see these insane prices ultimately bringing more cards out of collections for them to sell and putting more money into their pockets. And probably the biggest reason you won't see any such changes anytime soon is because at the end of the day, it is a HOBBY. Something that the majority of us do for fun, not to get involved with all the work, effort and politics that would go into trying to make major changes to clean up and standardize the grading and to try and deter the people putting out fake cards and fake holders. Even if you got all the Net54 members to go after the grading companies and demand they make changes, we, in my opinion, probably only represent a very small percentage of the entire hobby community and likely don't have a loud enough voice to really enact change by ourselves.

For all these reasons and more, we can continue debating the grading companies all you like but, until there is enough money involved to make it worth someone's while to make changes, nothing is going to change for the average or casual collector anytime soon. So I doubt if I'll ever get a 1952 Topps Mantle card now. The ridiculous prices are insane, and I'll leave those cards to investors who think a half million dollars or more for a NM7 example is accurate and focus on the ones I can afford and appreciate more. I could continue on but, this is more than enough.

B@b C4$mer

[Leon]

Great observations, Bob. I don't have the energy to write that much. However, a good hobby friend, who has led engineering teams in the past, has the idea and know how to make grading a science that uses technology to grade. IT can be science, he guarantees. There is a chance in the future, a big chance, that computers will do the grading. We shall see....

As always, the debate on who is best, really means who is the best marketer. Because the leader, in many serious collector's opinion, is no better than the others. They are great marketers, better than the others, and that is about it. It reminds me of when I used to sell Technology. We sold a lot of Dell computers. Guess what, Dell didn't physically make any of them. They are marketers and great ones at that. Just like PSA, no better at grading, but worlds better at marketing (so far).

[T206Collector]

Third-party grading - and the collectors who rely on it - are too fixated on numbers and "grades". Theoretically, a computer would be able to tell you all of the flaws in your card - like compare it digitally to a mint example, with pictures of creases, corner damage, centering, trimmed, etc. But, why assign a single number grade to that?

We get into trouble as a hobby when we focus on the number and not the card. It's not a competition - or is it?

[basesareempty]

Best you guys can hope for is that someone buys out PSA. Nobody is going to send all their PSA graded cards to a currently unknown TPG to get regraded for a currently unbuilt registry website. As I've said before in these recurring threads, the only way another company comes in is if they DRASTICALLY UNDERCUT the price of PSA's $6/card bulk submission specials.

Nothing else will make a dent, IMO. Maybe Beckett buys out SGC, and loads their black gaskets into the BVG holders? And takes over SGC's lousy website and integrates it with Becketts?

Hearing the reports at the National of PSA grading being slammed all week and the SGC employees either "twiddling their thumbs" or "looking like sad puppies" make me think the battle has already been lost.

I stood in that PSA line Saturday for 2 hours to have about 100 cards submitted for grading and was told by the customer service rep that they had already received more submissions to take back to CA then they ever had at any show. When I walked by the SGC booth there were a few people filling out submissions, but there was no line at all.
Also while looking through dealers booths the number of PSA slabbed cards vs. SGC slabbed cards was also noticeable. For years people said Pre war to SGC and Topps/Bowman era to PSA but I have been seeing a trend of more Pre War era cards in PSA slabs with the set registry/ higher prices fueling this trend.
My only complaint with PSA is their turnaround times with bulk submissions taking up to 3 months to grade but a recent thread over on their board looks like they are addressing this issue with a posting for jobs looking for graders at their Newport Beach location.

[basesareempty]

There is also some room for PSA to make even more money

If they had mid grade level sets on the registry. Like the best PSA 5 1952 topps, suddenly there could be more of a demand of PSA 5s and a more affordable option to be key of the registry. Thats just one example

I know on the PCGS Coin Registry they have what is called Everyman's Registry Sets. These are coins that are circulated graded coins that are graded up to AU58 which is the highest a circulated coin can grade. I think the idea of Everyman Card Registry sets would be a great idea and like you said would generate interest in cards in the 3-6 range. Then collectors on a limited budget would not have to go up against the well heeled/ deep pocket collectors on the Registry.

[KCRfan1]

PSA was so much more lenient 5-10 years ago on their grading but claim their standards have not changed. They graded the trimmed Wagner and didn't catch it. They also claim there's no perks for wealthy/celebrity type individuals who submit cards for grading which I think is bs. It's all about the all mighty dollar.

I don't believe it's a matter of PSA " not catching " it. PSA was just starting up, and what better way to make a very big splash and give a name to your company than to grade the hottest card in the market? The card industry was waining, and the Wagner was making news for the price it was selling for.

The Wagner HAD to receive a numerical grade. If the card had not received a grade, PSA would have had a difficult road ahead as a company since it was a start-up. The hobby would have been depressed further. If the Wagner was altered, how many MORE cards are altered?

Like it or not, Wagner had to grade.

[CrackaJackKid]

So it had to receive a numerical grade cause PSA was just starting up? So come right out of the gates being shady and lying? I know of several cards that have been submitted 3-5 times and all received a different grade each time. One being the 1914 CJ Matty. First time authentic trimmed,then a 2,then a 4??? I have seen the scans. It's just gotten to the point of "if you can't beat em, join em mentality cause they have control of so much of the market.

[steve B]

I don't know if I agree that another grading company could be successful much less supplant PSA and even SGC. I would think that a high percentage of high dollar/high grade cards have already been graded by either psa or sgc. If I had a large quantity of say t206 graded 6 or higher what would be my motivation to have them regraded by another company regardless of their reputation? That regrade might result in lower grades and therefore lesser value. Now might a new company emerge that can garner a portion of newer card submissions, sure, there are a plethora of post 1976 card issues that haven't yet been encased but I think they would have a tough time grabbing any market share in the pre-1977 category. If PSA or SGC went bankrupt that would be another story.

I didn't say a new company would have an easy time getting established or gaining business that the current big three have now.

What they'd have to do would be to add value in a number of ways.

For the holders, how about a solid holder with better protection from tampering than the current ones.
Add in some sensible customization, and that's a huge plus. Some people prefer the clear PSA cases, some prefer the inserts like SGC has. Both have weaknesses, PSA needs the card to fit the space, undersize is prone to damage, too big and it has to go in a sleeve. And the rush to get them in plastic does damage on occasion.
SGC has the ongoing issue with the gaskets being a bit too thin allowing the card to move. Plus, while the black is great for some sets it's not as good for others.
Becketts holders are simply too thick for a large collection. Great for a collector who will collect a handful of cards - something like rookies of stars, but at nearly 1/4 inch thick the stack for an early 80's set would be around 15 feet.

So maybe a selection of gaskets? Clear, black, maybe colors for the team collectors, a few lighter choices for sets like 71 Topps and 1950 Drakes.
Put into a holder that's more solidly designed and made tamper evident, along the lines of the packing tape that comes apart revealing words like "damaged do not open" (Of course it would have to be different for cards)

All have made some glaring errors in slabbing fakes.
None of them do all that good of a job at identifying flaws, so someone can tell why a card that otherwise looks great might have a low technical grade.

I'm not sure about computer grading, I see it being fairly difficult because of the sheer number of things that would need to be tracked of which some on modern cards are hard to image.
But having a detailed report available would go a long way towards making things make more sense.
Yes, it's more complex as someone pointed out about the Beckett subgrades, but with a simple number shown and the extra info available a collector could ignore it if it didn't matter to them. (I think I've read the sub grades on my handful of Beckett graded cards, but didn't really pay much attention)

This is an example of the sort of process I'd like to see.
http://www.philatelicfoundation.org/expertizing-process/the-process/

Steve Birmingham

[pbspelly]

For years people said Pre war to SGC and Topps/Bowman era to PSA but I have been seeing a trend of more Pre War era cards in PSA slabs with the set registry/ higher prices fueling this trend.


Purely as an observer, I've noticed this as well. PSA seems to have reached a tipping point, and I would be surprised if SGC is still around and under its same ownership 5 years from now. It's unfortunate, in my opinion, since I kind of prefer the way SGC looks, but I see SGC as kind of like Betamax to PSA's VHS. Beta was actually much better quality than VHS, but we all know who won that battle (at least at the consumer level, news stations and professional videographers used Beta right up until digital video cameras came along a few years ago)

[Orioles1954]

Third-party grading - and the collectors who rely on it - are too fixated on numbers and "grades". Theoretically, a computer would be able to tell you all of the flaws in your card - like compare it digitally to a mint example, with pictures of creases, corner damage, centering, trimmed, etc. But, why assign a single number grade to that?

We get into trouble as a hobby when we focus on the number and not the card. It's not a competition - or is it?

Grading and collecting is 100% competition.

[CrackaJackKid]

Couldn't agree more!

[ALR-bishop]

I have a fairly large collection but do not collect graded cards. I do not think grading is all about competition. I know collectors who are either in the hobby for solely investment purposes, or for hobby and investment purposes. They see grading as a neccessary component of today's hobby from an investment standpoint. Some even view it as a neccessary evil in today's hobby.

I get that Registry competition drives some collectors, but do not think grading is solely a function of competition. Likewise, I know a lot of collectors who collect for enjoyment and not competition. I think you can enjoy and be proud of your own collection without comparing it to or competing with other collectors....and admire the collections put together by others.

[1880nonsports]

couldn't agree more! Sad that my grader of choice (SGC) has continually dropped the ball......

[PowderedH2O]

If and when I buy graded cards (95% of my collection is raw) it is usually cards from the 1933-1952 era where I have a harder time finding raw examples. I have sets on the registry from those time periods. They are not in competition at all. They simply serve as checklists. Why should I be in competition? I am a school teacher. I have maybe $3-5k a year that I can sink into cards, and sometimes less than that. There are guys making $250k a year that can wake up tomorrow and decide they want to start a card collection and have a better collection than me in less than 48 hours. When I see the Donald Spences of the world, I am happy for them, but they and I are not in competition. My Roberto Clemente rookie would look silly in Spence's 1955 set. Same with my Aaron rookie and my Rose rookie. I am only in competition with myself to see what I can do with my own collection. You realize that with the right amount of money, a wealthy person could go onto ebay and nearly complete full runs of Topps and Bowman in high grade in less than a month, right? So, why sweat it? Just enjoy what you can afford and don't worry about what others get.
That being said, I prefer SGC in every way except for their registry. As I like to use it for a checklist, it is brutal to work with. If they fixed that, I'd lean towards sticking with them entirely.

[iwantitiwinit]

Best you guys can hope for is that someone buys out PSA. Nobody is going to send all their PSA graded cards to a currently unknown TPG to get regraded for a currently unbuilt registry website. As I've said before in these recurring threads, the only way another company comes in is if they DRASTICALLY UNDERCUT the price of PSA's $6/card bulk submission specials.

Nothing else will make a dent, IMO. Maybe Beckett buys out SGC, and loads their black gaskets into the BVG holders? And takes over SGC's lousy website and integrates it with Becketts?

Hearing the reports at the National of PSA grading being slammed all week and the SGC employees either "twiddling their thumbs" or "looking like sad puppies" make me think the battle has already been lost.

Agree.

[RealToppsaholic]

Anyone think there's a possibility of a brand new grading service emerging that could capture the market?

10 years ago the top 2 companies were GAI and PSA

[deltaarnet]

Why does a cracked SGC 60 become a PSA N6 under sized? Who's doing the right thing?

[tschock]

If I had a large quantity of say t206 graded 6 or higher what would be my motivation to have them regraded by another company regardless of their reputation?

That is the real key to a new grading company entering the market and displacing any of the others. How they will handle already graded cards. All other innovations will be secondary to this (IMO).

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Sam/PowderedH20 said: "Why should I be in competition? I am a school teacher. I have maybe $3-5k a year that I can sink into cards, and sometimes less than that. There are guys making $250k a year that can wake up tomorrow and decide they want to start a card collection and have a better collection than me in less than 48 hours. When I see the Donald Spences of the world, I am happy for them, but they and I are not in competition. My Roberto Clemente rookie would look silly in Spence's 1955 set. Same with my Aaron rookie and my Rose rookie. I am only in competition with myself to see what I can do with my own collection. You realize that with the right amount of money, a wealthy person could go onto ebay and nearly complete full runs of Topps and Bowman in high grade in less than a month, right? So, why sweat it? Just enjoy what you can afford and don't worry about what others get."

I don't think I could have said it any better. Thanks for this post, Sam.

[RealToppsaholic]

Just curious as to where most of you see grading in 10-15 years? Lately I've seen so much negativity towards PSA from inconsistency to biased grading. Even though they seem to dominate the market over SGC and Beckett (as far as resale value) will it last? For me personally as ridiculous as it sounds I only prefer PSA cause I collect Cracker Jacks and like the way the red background meshes with the red PSA label.

another player will come into the arena soon I would guess -- the space is growing and other than PSA 2nd place is up for grabs. when SGC or beckett starts TRADING ON THE NASDAQ the conversation can begin but for now PSA is obvi #1 and should remain there; the re-sale numbers SCREAM that PSA > SGC

there will always be movement within the grades and people will complain about 'under-graded' etc but as we know this happens with all companies anyway right? no one complains about SGC ? beckett (BVG) holders can cross up or down 3-4 points ! a PSA 8 can be broken out and come back a 9 or a 6 from PSA again ! --- subjective nature will always make this an open topic hence the very reason third party graders will survive; traders need a dis-interested third party to 'broker' the deal/help establish value. the graders have made the collectors more wealthy; the graded holders have also brought in a whole new wave of people liken it to the poker boom ?

who is next?

[carrigansghost]

No fear here in my narrow collection or poker. I'll raise my hand.

[steve B]

another player will come into the arena soon I would guess -- the space is growing and other than PSA 2nd place is up for grabs. when SGC or beckett starts TRADING ON THE NASDAQ the conversation can begin but for now PSA is obvi #1 and should remain there; the re-sale numbers SCREAM that PSA > SGC

there will always be movement within the grades and people will complain about 'under-graded' etc but as we know this happens with all companies anyway right? no one complains about SGC ? beckett (BVG) holders can cross up or down 3-4 points ! a PSA 8 can be broken out and come back a 9 or a 6 from PSA again ! --- subjective nature will always make this an open topic hence the very reason third party graders will survive; traders need a dis-interested third party to 'broker' the deal/help establish value. the graders have made the collectors more wealthy; the graded holders have also brought in a whole new wave of people liken it to the poker boom ?

who is next?

PSA themselves probably wouldn't be big enough to go public, it would be interesting to see what the split is between the cards and coins. Since PCGS is international, I'd be the coin division brings in way more.

Overall, a company going public isn't all that impressive.

Steve B

[pbspelly]

PSA themselves probably wouldn't be big enough to go public, it would be interesting to see what the split is between the cards and coins. Since PCGS is international, I'd be the coin division brings in way more.

Overall, a company going public isn't all that impressive.

Steve B

According to the 2015 financial report for Collector's Universe (parent company of PSA), the coin division accounts for about 70% of revenue, cards and autographs about 24%

[SMPEP]

The problem isn't the grading companies. The problem is the buyers.

Huggins & Scott sells this 1929 Kashin Seibold AND Todt raw for $220 (in November 2015):

http://nov15.hugginsandscott.com/cgi-bin/showitem.pl?lotno=362

Now look at Ebay today. That same exact Seibold (we can tell from the stamp on the back) is being offered for $500 (and with 2 people watching there's a good bet it sells):

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1929-Kashin-R316-Harry-Seibold-HOF-SGC-20-1-5-Fair-RARE-SHORT-PRINT-/262584159455?hash=item3d233c4cdf:g:UMgAAOSw9NdXtfD N

So someone bought the Seibold for $110, put it in a piece of plastic (we'll call the costs $45 for shipping and grading) and is going to sell the exact same card for a 200% profit in 8 months (and it got the second lowest grade you can get!).

When in reality, graded or not, it's the same damn card.

So, some buyer just made some seller rich because they didn't do their homework.

Until buyer's wise up, you're going to see a huge increase in the fraud for graded cards (for all grades). Because as this legitimate example shows, the profit margin is there. The margin for high grade stuff (cough "fake" cough) is astronomically. I'd be sacred to death right now if I owned any high grade cards. (Fortunately I don't!)

Patrick

[whitehse]

The problem isn't the grading companies. The problem is the buyers.

Huggins & Scott sells this 1929 Kashin Seibold AND Todt raw for $220 (in November 2015):

http://nov15.hugginsandscott.com/cgi-bin/showitem.pl?lotno=362

Now look at Ebay today. That same exact Seibold (we can tell from the stamp on the back) is being offered for $500 (and with 2 people watching there's a good bet it sells):

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1929-Kashin-R316-Harry-Seibold-HOF-SGC-20-1-5-Fair-RARE-SHORT-PRINT-/262584159455?hash=item3d233c4cdf:g:UMgAAOSw9NdXtfD N

So someone bought the Seibold for $110, put it in a piece of plastic (we'll call the costs $45 for shipping and grading) and is going to sell the exact same card for a 200% profit in 8 months (and it got the second lowest grade you can get!).

When in reality, graded or not, it's the same damn card.

So, some buyer just made some seller rich because they didn't do their homework.

Until buyer's wise up, you're going to see a huge increase in the fraud for graded cards (for all grades). Because as this legitimate example shows, the profit margin is there. The margin for high grade stuff (cough "fake" cough) is astronomically. I'd be sacred to death right now if I owned any high grade cards. (Fortunately I don't!)

Patrick

But buyers will not wise up because it is easier to let some third party do all the legwork for them instead of a buyer educating themselves on what a raw example of a card they desire should look, feel and smell like. Many buyers want to rest and relax on the slabs of plastic that they perceive to be correct without doing any such homework because the TPG did that all that for them. They are willing to pay the premium because of perceived scarcity.

We have seen too many cases of fraud, both on small scales and large to put any kind of faith and real money into something that the buyer just has zero clue on. As for owning high grade cards right now.......I personally would sell off everything I have and reap the profits while coming back in three years and buying the same cards at a much smaller price.

[rgpete]

The future of grading will never change, it is a non regulated service based soley on an opinion by a person who grades the card that may, or may not be an expert understanding the different aspects/quality of the issues through the years, unfortunately the buyers trust them and pay the price for NM M Gem.

Grading is a crap shoot , depending on what type of day a grader is having and what type of mood they in.

[Manny Trillo]

Let me ask you this - what would a new grading company have to do to differentiate themselves from the 3 big companies now? Is it simply a matter of being less expensive and having quicker turnaround? Are you looking for a company to innovate a way to make something subjective objective?
The biggest thing for me would be the look of the flips. The flips they have now are so crappy looking.

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