JustCollectVP
07-01-2016, 04:32 PM
I’m pretty sure that most of us can agree that there have been some incredible run-ups on the prices of quite a few post-war rookie cards and the acceleration of the price increases has been mind-boggling to many. I’ve read and heard various reasons, explanations, finger pointing and conspiracy theories about the current state of the market. There’s really no reason to rehash all of that as it has been addressed ad infinitum. I think it is about time to take a solid look at the trend and dispute some of the Chicken Little theories.
If we can agree that the price increases have been somewhat specific and are affecting a small, but very visible segment of the hobby, then we should all be on board to have some open discussion with respect to some of the observations I will make further along in this post.
By nature, there has been some crossover of the price escalation into the prewar marketplace, but for the sake of this conversation, we’ll stick with the post war price changes and their overall effect on the hobby, collectors and the subsequent dialog.
Key rookie cards have been rising, seemingly exponentially, for the last few months, but it appears that the key point on the timeline was the liquidation of the Dmitri Young Collection in 2012 (and the fact that so many of the cards set records) that began the discussion questioning the buyers and how they would be upside down on their purchases. I heard many laughing and others posting to message boards about the PSA 10 1955 Roberto Clemente selling for $432,690.00 and how it was so insane. Does anyone wonder what they’re saying now? Considering that a PSA 9 Clemente just sold a few months ago for $478,000.00, I’ve heard some realistic suggestions that the PSA 10 might now be worth a million or more. I’m guessing the PSA 10 owner isn’t so upside down after all.
This afternoon, Leighton and I were discussing our collecting habits and the changes and turns that we’ve taken over the past decade or so. We’ve seen prices change on many things that we’ve collected. Some of the things that we collect have appreciated and we’ve had to make choices of continuing to collect, putting the collection on hold or liquidating to take advantage of the profits and redirect them elsewhere. It is standard fare and I’m sure that it is an exercise that most collectors go through on a regular basis – except those that just continue to add to their collection – not that there’s anything wrong with that.
I think many people are too busy worrying about things that really don’t have any impact on them or their collection, but it makes for great Internet fodder and for lively discussion. I can look around my office and find a plethora of items and issues that could satisfy a novice, intermediate or advanced collector. I still think that there are so many areas of the hobby that provide incredible value and opportunity, but some are too busy getting upset about one segment to realize that there is so much more out there. Sometimes, I guess it is difficult to see the forest through the trees – even if the trees are in the background of a Bender.
Some have taken to drastic extremes and made outlandish claims. Whether they just want to be part of the drama or they are completely disillusioned, I’ve seen many complaining that they have to leave the hobby because they can’t afford to collect anymore. REALLY? Can’t afford to collect? Perhaps if you have champagne dreams and beer money, then you’re limited, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t collect or have to leave the hobby. It probably means that what you want to collect you may no longer be able to afford or are unwilling to spend more than you would like. I know people that still collect and are very happy collecting while their collecting budget is less than a tank of gas a month. So, don’t try to convince me that the hobby has priced you out! The segment that you want to collect may have progressed beyond your means, but the hobby still has plenty for EVERYONE on ANY budget to collect. So, to be priced out of the hobby really means that you are unwilling to compromise on what you want to collect. So, you’re not priced out of the hobby . . . you’re priced out of the segment of the hobby in which you wish to participate. And as much as I’d like to have dated "Fall Guy" era Heather Thomas (insert the romantic interest of your fantasies), it wasn’t practical or plausible. But I didn’t complain or say that I was going to give up on dating and next year, I'll celebrate my 30th wedding anniversary.
As an example, if you want a nice Hank Aaron card, there are plenty to choose from whether it be his rookie, a leader card or something from after he retired. If you were priced out of a higher grade, buy a grade or two lower. If you are priced out of an issue, move on to another. You don’t have to be an heir to a Rockefeller or a Saudi Prince; you just have to have realistic expectations. But, as Leighton and I always recommend, you should try to buy the best example that your budget will allow.
Personally, I’d love to have all MINT and centered 1948 Leaf Football cards in my set, but they don’t exist and if they did, I couldn’t afford them, so I lowered my expectations and collected at a condition and price point that suited my budget and settled for very well centered EX/MT to NM/MT (PSA 6-PSA 8) cards. I’m not priced out of the hobby, but I know that I’m not sitting at the lunch table with the deep pocket folks that can pony up for the best of the best. There’s nothing wrong with that and after lunch we can still sit at the same bar and share stories about the joy of building our collections over a beer or a shot (or a Grape Nehi).
If we can agree that the price increases have been somewhat specific and are affecting a small, but very visible segment of the hobby, then we should all be on board to have some open discussion with respect to some of the observations I will make further along in this post.
By nature, there has been some crossover of the price escalation into the prewar marketplace, but for the sake of this conversation, we’ll stick with the post war price changes and their overall effect on the hobby, collectors and the subsequent dialog.
Key rookie cards have been rising, seemingly exponentially, for the last few months, but it appears that the key point on the timeline was the liquidation of the Dmitri Young Collection in 2012 (and the fact that so many of the cards set records) that began the discussion questioning the buyers and how they would be upside down on their purchases. I heard many laughing and others posting to message boards about the PSA 10 1955 Roberto Clemente selling for $432,690.00 and how it was so insane. Does anyone wonder what they’re saying now? Considering that a PSA 9 Clemente just sold a few months ago for $478,000.00, I’ve heard some realistic suggestions that the PSA 10 might now be worth a million or more. I’m guessing the PSA 10 owner isn’t so upside down after all.
This afternoon, Leighton and I were discussing our collecting habits and the changes and turns that we’ve taken over the past decade or so. We’ve seen prices change on many things that we’ve collected. Some of the things that we collect have appreciated and we’ve had to make choices of continuing to collect, putting the collection on hold or liquidating to take advantage of the profits and redirect them elsewhere. It is standard fare and I’m sure that it is an exercise that most collectors go through on a regular basis – except those that just continue to add to their collection – not that there’s anything wrong with that.
I think many people are too busy worrying about things that really don’t have any impact on them or their collection, but it makes for great Internet fodder and for lively discussion. I can look around my office and find a plethora of items and issues that could satisfy a novice, intermediate or advanced collector. I still think that there are so many areas of the hobby that provide incredible value and opportunity, but some are too busy getting upset about one segment to realize that there is so much more out there. Sometimes, I guess it is difficult to see the forest through the trees – even if the trees are in the background of a Bender.
Some have taken to drastic extremes and made outlandish claims. Whether they just want to be part of the drama or they are completely disillusioned, I’ve seen many complaining that they have to leave the hobby because they can’t afford to collect anymore. REALLY? Can’t afford to collect? Perhaps if you have champagne dreams and beer money, then you’re limited, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t collect or have to leave the hobby. It probably means that what you want to collect you may no longer be able to afford or are unwilling to spend more than you would like. I know people that still collect and are very happy collecting while their collecting budget is less than a tank of gas a month. So, don’t try to convince me that the hobby has priced you out! The segment that you want to collect may have progressed beyond your means, but the hobby still has plenty for EVERYONE on ANY budget to collect. So, to be priced out of the hobby really means that you are unwilling to compromise on what you want to collect. So, you’re not priced out of the hobby . . . you’re priced out of the segment of the hobby in which you wish to participate. And as much as I’d like to have dated "Fall Guy" era Heather Thomas (insert the romantic interest of your fantasies), it wasn’t practical or plausible. But I didn’t complain or say that I was going to give up on dating and next year, I'll celebrate my 30th wedding anniversary.
As an example, if you want a nice Hank Aaron card, there are plenty to choose from whether it be his rookie, a leader card or something from after he retired. If you were priced out of a higher grade, buy a grade or two lower. If you are priced out of an issue, move on to another. You don’t have to be an heir to a Rockefeller or a Saudi Prince; you just have to have realistic expectations. But, as Leighton and I always recommend, you should try to buy the best example that your budget will allow.
Personally, I’d love to have all MINT and centered 1948 Leaf Football cards in my set, but they don’t exist and if they did, I couldn’t afford them, so I lowered my expectations and collected at a condition and price point that suited my budget and settled for very well centered EX/MT to NM/MT (PSA 6-PSA 8) cards. I’m not priced out of the hobby, but I know that I’m not sitting at the lunch table with the deep pocket folks that can pony up for the best of the best. There’s nothing wrong with that and after lunch we can still sit at the same bar and share stories about the joy of building our collections over a beer or a shot (or a Grape Nehi).