Market Exuberance (or “If I was smart, I’d sell now…”)

[paleocards]

(Posted this on the PSA boards, but I thought there'd be interest here too...)

I track the “performance” of my “blue-chips” through eBay’s sold auctions, major auction house results and VCP. I started doing this soon after I bought and slabbed my first PSA cards in 2005, so I have over 10 years of data for some of my cards. I collect baseball HOFers in as high a grade as I can afford, and I can confidently state that I’ve never seen the baseball card market as explosive as it is now.

The recently-ended Spring auctions by some of the major houses (including REA, Mile High, Memory Lane, and Goldin) provide cases-in-point, but eBay (and not just PWCC) have provided some recent stunners as well.

Here’s some data:

REA (closed 5/1/16) auctioned 7 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with five of the seven hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1968 Topps #280 Mickey Mantle PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $1080
Previous record: $854 (PWCC “certified,” 12/10/15)
Sales tracked: 320 since 12/9/09

1933 Goudey #92 Lou Gehrig PSA 4
New record sale (w/juice): $2700
Previous record: $2133 (Huggins & Scott, 6/13/13)
Sales tracked: 42 since 1/18/12

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
New record sale (w/juice): $4200
Previous record: $3561 (PWCC, 3/8/16)
Sales tracked: 313 since 11/21/07

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $4500
Previous record: $2577 (PWCC, 4/12/16)
Sales tracked: 236 since 10/24/05

1955 Topps #164 Roberto Clemente RC PSA 5
New record sale (w/juice): $5100
Previous record: $3150 (PWCC “certified,” 2/8/16)
Sales tracked: 27 since 5/4/15

Mile High (closed 5/6/16) auctioned 9 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with four of the nine hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1956 Topps #292 Luis Aparicio RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $1020.60
Previous record: $583 (eBay BIN, 12/31/14)
Sales tracked: 84 since 1/8/09

1969 Topps #95 Johnny Bench PSA 9
New record sale (w/juice): $1827.36
Previous record: $1050 (PWCC, 3/13/14)
Sales tracked: 85 since 1/24/06

1966 Topps #50 Mickey Mantle PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $3202.80
Previous record: $1450 (eBay BIN, 4/5/16)
Sales tracked: 257 since 8/29/05

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7 (again!)
New record sale (w/juice): $4393.94
Previous record: $4200 (REA, 5/1/16)
Sales tracked: 315 since 11/21/07

Memory Lane (closed 5/8/16) auctioned 9 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with two of the nine hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1971 Topps #26 Bert Blyleven RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $684
Previous record: $650 (eBay BIN, 7/15/13)
Sales tracked: 63 since 1/14/13

1963 Topps #553 Willie Stargell RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $684
Previous record: $671 (PWCC, 11/5/14)
Sales tracked: 140 since 3/7/08

And then…another Stargell RC in 8 sold on eBay 12 days later (5/17) for $961.01!

Goldin (closed 5/8/16) auctioned 2 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with one of the two hammering-down at an unprecedented level (according to my records).

1949 Bowman #84 Roy Campanella RC PSA 7
New record sale (w/juice): $1037
Previous record: $949 (eBay best offer, 4/13/16)
Sales tracked: 33 since 1/14/12

And of course there’s the PSA 8 Nolan Ryan RC that’s just going ballistic:
New record sale: $8095 (eBay auction, NOT PWCC, 5/15/16)
Previous record: $5000 (PWCC, 5/12/16)
Sales tracked: 272 since 1/6/09

[begsu1013]

ahhhh the mental aspect of collecting.

gotta love it.

and you're not alone.

[Exhibitman]

So...do you sell or hold on? Or downgrade and sell? Vexing questions for collectors.

[Flintboy]

This is a small group of buyers buying all this high grade stuff up. Key rookies in the 50's and higher grade Mantles.... Not all Mantles, just certain years...Pretty genius when it comes right down to it, directing the price point on certain cards.....

[swarmee]

Most investment advisors would recommend taking profits at this time and diversifying.

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

This is a small group of buyers buying all this high grade stuff up. Key rookies in the 50's and higher grade Mantles.... Not all Mantles, just certain years...Pretty genius when it comes right down to it, directing the price point on certain cards.....

Also happened in comics a few years ago. A group of people bought up Amazing Fantasy #15 first Spider-Man.
The effect is 7 years ago the entry level to buy a low grade Amazing Fantasy 15 was $2500 and now it`s about $12,500.
Get the key baseball card rookies now before the price entry is too high.

[savedfrommyspokes]

This is a small group of buyers buying all this high grade stuff up. Key rookies in the 50's and higher grade Mantles.... Not all Mantles, just certain years...Pretty genius when it comes right down to it, directing the price point on certain cards.....

Seems as though this anonymous group have not yet begun to pursue the 57 #95 Mantle or the any of the 52 on up Bowman Mantle cards. A 53 Topps PSA6 Mantle recently sold for approximately the same as a centered PSA 7 53 Bowman Mantle.

[Leon]

My guess is at least some of the record prices are due to exceptional cards for the grade. The best always go for more.

[Bestdj777]

Seems as though this anonymous group have not yet begun to pursue the 57 #95 Mantle or the any of the 52 on up Bowman Mantle cards. A 53 Topps PSA6 Mantle recently sold for approximately the same as a centered PSA 7 53 Bowman Mantle.

The 53 Topps is a better card than the 53 Bowman, which is small and kind of boring.

[begsu1013]

chis,

you mean the 52 bowman being small and boring?

i think the 53b is an absolutely beautiful card and larger.

[Bestdj777]

chis,

you mean the 52 bowman being small and boring?

i think the 53b is an absolutely beautiful card and larger.

Yea, haha, disregard what I said. Was thinking if the 52. The 51 and 52 are small and boring but the 53 is a decent looking card.

[savedfrommyspokes]

chis,

you mean the 52 bowman being small and boring?

i think the 53b is an absolutely beautiful card and larger.

I agree that the 53 Bowman is a much nicer/larger card than the 52 Bowman(I like my 53 B much better than my 52 B). I also agree that some of the higher end PSA 6 53 Topps Mantle cards are indeed more highly coveted than a 53 Bowman Mantle

[Johnny630]

I believe the 52 Bowman Mantle will be the next one to see a major bump..idk maybe not just my thoughts. My personal favorite bowman is the 54.

[Johnny630]

Great card savedfrommyspokes!! I like your style 👍🏻

[savedfrommyspokes]

I believe the 52 Bowman Mantle will be the next one to see a major bump..idk maybe not just my thoughts. My personal favorite bowman is the 54.


TY Johnny.....I recently purchased a PSA 3 52 Bowman Mantle for the same amount I paid 18 months ago for the SGC 5.5 53 Bowman Mantle, so I agree that the 52 Bowman Mantle (although it is a small/boring card), looks as though it maybe starting to spike like the 53 Topps Mantle has recently.

[Mishu2nite]

And of course there’s the PSA 8 Nolan Ryan RC that’s just going ballistic:
New record sale: $8095 (eBay auction, NOT PWCC, 5/15/16)
Previous record: $5000 (PWCC, 5/12/16)
Sales tracked: 272 since 1/6/09

Crazy the Ryan psa 8 just sold for 12,000 yesterday.

[paleocards]

It actually was a "Best Offer" that was accepted for $8600 - another "new record" sale but not quite 5-figures yet.

[KCRfan1]

It seems that just a few cards and players are driving the market right now. Years ago, I remember a successful card shop owner telling me that 99% of the cards out there just aren't worth much. It's the 1% that will always have a market and value.

Is that what everyone is seeing right now? Has it always been this way?

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

It seems that just a few cards and players are driving the market right now. Years ago, I remember a successful card shop owner telling me that 99% of the cards out there just aren't worth much. It's the 1% that will always have a market and value.

Is that what everyone is seeing right now? Has it always been this way?

It`s like that in every hobby. The keys and holy grails go up,while the rest lose value.

[Leon]

It seems that just a few cards and players are driving the market right now. Years ago, I remember a successful card shop owner telling me that 99% of the cards out there just aren't worth much. It's the 1% that will always have a market and value.

Is that what everyone is seeing right now? Has it always been this way?

More collectors are player collecting than set building so it seems. (Investors don't want to build sets :).)

To answer your question, from my knowledge I don't think it's always been this way. Maybe some but not as much as now. I know as a kid in the late 1960s and 1970s we did sets and teams....

[begsu1013]

It actually was a "Best Offer" that was accepted for $8600 - another "new record" sale but not quite 5-figures yet.

kinda biased, but i have always thought the koosman rc was severely undervalued / underappreciated and sorta still is*...especially centered examples.

obviously each key rc has it's own issues of flaws, but the 68 runs the gamut...

ya have to contend w/ general horrific centering not only on the front, but the back as well.

then ya have major tilt issues, burlap borders/corners, several different pd factors and then differentiating from the reg and the mb.

(if you are doing his basic topps player run, the mb card cant be used)

once ya get past all that, then there's 2 more versions to snag.

the opc and the veni.

my nine is a mb, and while it would carry more value in the mb holder, i havent sent her in because of this very reason.

other than all of that, does any other hof rc card have so many issues and different variations? in any sport?

oh yeah, and it's an uncorrected error card! ("senational" spelling on back)

* i do not think that sgc 98 that is currently on the bay is a 1.2 million dollar card, however i could see decent 8s pushing the gas to about the 15 mark before finally leveling off for a little while.

[Jdoggs]

Clemente PSA 8 rookie is a good example of a card selling for four figures a few years ago to six figures now.

[begsu1013]

Clemente PSA 8 rookie is a good example of a card selling for four figures a few years ago to six figures now.

wow! such substance.

nominate this one for post of the year.

[Jdoggs]

Rose rookie PSA 9 had recent eBay buy it now completed sales of $28.9k and $34.9k. Also rose PSA 8.5 rookie had a recent eBay completed auction sale of $11k. It appears the rose PSA 8.5 rookie recent eBay auction sale of $41k may be an anomaly.

[begsu1013]

Rose rookie PSA 9 had recent eBay buy it now completed sales of $28.9k and $34.9k. Also rose PSA 8.5 rookie had a recent eBay completed auction sale of $11k. It appears the rose PSA 8.5 rookie recent eBay auction sale of $41k may be an anomaly.

yes.

i think you regurgitated the exact same thing you put in the "crazy price" thread.



edit to add:

Amazing the rose rookie PSA 8.5 sale of $41k.
From eBay completed sales a rose rookie PSA 9 sold for $28.9k on May 7 this year and I recall a rose rookie PSA 9 sold for $34.9k a few months ago on eBay completed sales.

obviously you have harsh feelings because i turned down some lowball offer years ago on a 52 mantle, but i can honestly say i've only seen you:


1. post prices of what other members have sold their cards for (and claim that they did)
2. post current sales prices.
3. or post something like "nice card".

where's your recent pick ups?
have you ever even posted a card?
contribute anything other than current sales records or divulge members sales prices from months/years ago?

let's see some links to your cards, player sets or sets in general....


cool video though! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxRlZp1cDjY)


.

[begsu1013]

oh and my name is bob evans

and yes, that was my rose that sold for the $35K months* ago.

(but you knew that didn't ya? precisely the reason ya posted it 3 times now underneath one of my posts, huh?
in fact you are the guy that created the new ebay account and hit the BIN and then claimed ya hit it by mistake)

but thanks for showing my price was stronger than the may 7th sale.

and i am basically calling you one step above a stalker/troll

or maybe youre one step below.

giving ya a chance to prove otherwise....

or ya can go whine to leon again.

your choice.

just know im gonna keep calling you out on the bs each and every time



* yes months ago which in todays market might as well been a year ago.

[Jdoggs]

oh and my name is bob evans

and yes, that was my rose that sold for the $35K months* ago.

(but you knew that didn't ya? precisely the reason ya posted it 3 times now underneath one of my posts, huh?
in fact you are the guy that created the new ebay account and hit the BIN and then claimed ya hit it by mistake)

but thanks for showing my price was stronger than the may 7th sale.

and i am basically calling you one step above a stalker/troll

or maybe youre one step below.

giving ya a chance to prove otherwise....

or ya can go whine to leon again.

your choice.

just know im gonna keep calling you out on the bs each and every time



* yes months ago which in todays market might as well been a year ago.

Oh I didn't know you sold the rose PSA 9 rookie for $35k.
And I did NOT create a new eBay account to hit the BIN on that card.
What a ridiculous accusation!

[1952boyntoncollector]

yawn..

[Stonepony]

yawn..

+1, jeeze....

[begsu1013]

yawn for ya'll, 100%.

but for me, this guy has been pulling this crap for a while now.

notice he didn't deny the mantle rejection.

it just so happens he posted it 3 different times right after me on the rose and has done this same crap multiple times in the past.

now claiming he didn't know. how convenient?

but 3 times is not a coincidence, especially considering his history.

alanis morrsette wouldn't even call it "ironic".

[Jdoggs]

yawn for ya'll, 100%.

but for me, this guy has been pulling this crap for a while now.



it just so happens he posted it 3 different times right after me on the rose and has done this same crap multiple times in the past?

now claiming he didn't know. convenient? perhaps.

but 3 times is not a coincidence.

alanis morrsette wouldn't even call it "ironic".
Actually to get the facts straight it was posted twice after your posts not three times cause the thread was on crazy prices and I was referring to the rose PSA 8.5 rookie sale of $41k and I referenced 2 recent PSA 9 rose rookie sales.
I didn't know you sold one of the PSA 9's for $35k until your angry posts.
And really you shouldn't falsely accuse me of creating a new eBay account to buy your rose rookie PSA 9 and then retracting. That is false and you know it.

[begsu1013]

really?

here's the 3rd one and it happened to be your first one:

Since the 63 Rose 8.5 sold for $42k, is a 63 Rose PSA 9 a $100k+ card now?

and it was you.


not gonna argue w/ you on a message board. everything i said, i mean and has happened. period.

anyone that knows me can tell ya im straight to the point and have no need to muddy the water w/ anything that is not factual.

where as you have claimed on several occasions that i have boasted previous sales.

asked for to you provide a simple link to the thread and you disappeared.

completely not my style at all and besides, who needs to do that when you are here?

and again, what is it you exactly contribute here...

show us your posts of pick ups, cards, sets or anything other than posting prices that conveniently and constantly happen to be other members?

you cant even put your name in the post.

show 1 previous post of a card you own and are happy about...

just one.

[Jdoggs]

really?

here's the 3rd one and it happened to be your first one:



and it was you.


not gonna argue w/ you on a message board. everything i said, i mean and has happened. period.

anyone that knows me can tell ya im straight to the point and have no need to muddy the water w/ anything that is not factual.

where as you have claimed on several occasions that i have boasted previous sales.

asked for to you provide a simple link to the thread and you disappeared.

completely not my style at all and besides, who needs to do that when you are here?

and again, what is it you exactly contribute here...

show us your posts of pick ups, cards, sets or anything other than posting prices that conveniently and constantly happen to be other members?

you cant even put your name in the post.

show 1 previous post of a card you own and are happy about...

just one.

In that post I didn't reference your rose PSA 9 rookie sale of $35k so it doesn't count as one of the 3.
You still need to apologize for lying that I created an eBay account to buy your rose rookie PSA 9 for a BIN price of $35k and then saying I accidentally hit the BIN button. I'm calling you out to name the eBay ID and name on the account that did that. You can take a picture of the eBay info and let me know.
Looking back that would have been a great deal but it wasn't me😀

[begsu1013]

show 1 previous post of a card you own and are happy about...

just one.

exactly.

http://caimages.collectors.com/psaimages/26029/10282516/oddball clown.jpg

[begsu1013]

oops copied wrong link, but the clown was just as appropriate.

http://caimages.collectors.com/psaimages/40947/10941949/oddball clown.jpg

[Jdoggs]

Begsu1013 so you admit you lied that you stated that I created a new ebay account to buy your rose psa 9 rookie for $35k and then retracted. I called you out to prove it and you have no proof as you are posting clown pictures. Are those pictures of yourself cause who is behaving like a clown in this thread?
I know you are frustrated that you recently sold your rose psa 9 rookie for $35k but don't take it out on the board.
You posted in another thread that you are were booted from the collectors forum cause of your behavior and now I understand why.
Anyways I am done with you and not gonna go back and forth cause I don't respect someone like you who lies.
I already emailed Leon your lies and he will deal with you and hopefully you will learn not to lie and have some class.

[begsu1013]

show us your posts of pick ups, cards, sets or anything other than posting prices that conveniently and constantly happen to be other members?

you cant even put your name in the post.

show 1 previous post of a card you own and are happy about...

just one.

?

[MW1]

kinda biased, but i have always thought the koosman rc was severely undervalued / underappreciated and sorta still is*...especially centered examples.

...

* i do not think that sgc 98 that is currently on the bay is a 1.2 million dollar card, however i could see decent 8s pushing the gas to about the 15 mark before finally leveling off for a little while.Tell us what you think it is worth?

[begsu1013]

since it's your card I will send ya a pm.

[pawpawdiv9]

Wheres all the pics?? only 1 so far
https://sp.yimg.com/xj/th?id=OIP.M7e4096e3d9ee22895a059d7791969d45o0&pid=15.1&P=0&w=300&h=300