T206 Lumley population question

[Mountaineer1999]

I am trying to put together the backs of Mr. Lumley and have come to realize a couple of the more common backs are a tough find. OM is for sure but SC150 Fac 25 and SC350 FAC 25 seem to be just as tough.
These are two of the most common backs (see t206Resource list below), yet the Lumley appears to be very rare within the Fac25 print. Does anyone know the reason for this and are other players in the same boat as Lumley?

32 Sweet Caporal 150 Factory No.25
33 Sweet Caporal 350-460 Factory No.30
34 Sweet Caporal 150 Factory No.30
35 Piedmont 150 Factory No.25
36 Piedmont 350-460 Factory No.25
37 Sweet Caporal 350 Factory No.25
38 Sweet Caporal 350 Factory No.30
39 Piedmont 350 Factory No.25

[ZachS]

According to my portrait checklist, my Lumley is a P 150 f25.

[Luke]

Factory 25 for both 150 & 350 are a lot tougher than factory 30. I haven't done any research as to how much tougher, but some people seem to have noticed. When I'm selling a factory 25, it seems to move a lot quicker than a 30.

[Mountaineer1999]

According to my portrait checklist, my Lumley is a P 150 f25.

This is only the Sweet Caporal backs. The P150 is his most common card then comes the SC fac30's. If anyone else has fac25 sweet caporal lumley I would love to know. Maybe there are more of them than I think, I just can't find them.

[sreader3]

Those rankings don't tell the whole story. First, consider that those two backs can be found with a very large number of subjects N. Thus, even assuming uniform distribution your chance of finding Lumley is 1/N -- where N is pretty large (much larger than for, say, SC 460/30). Second, consider that Lumley is a 150/350 subject and those subjects are in general much tougher to find with SC 350/25 than 350-only subjects are.

Not sure there's any consolation here; just trying to explain why you are having trouble finding them.

[Mountaineer1999]

Thanks for the info Scott. I am ignorant when it comes to the different print brand/factory/series etc. Could I assume there are less Fac25 vs Fac30 for the SC 150/350 because Fac25 had so many different type backs to print?

Edited to add: I just re-visited your 'Inside T206' and got a little better understanding of the distribution. I guess it makes sense that there are more SC Fac30 vs Fac25 if Sweet Caps were more popular in the NY area.

Those rankings don't tell the whole story. First, consider that those two backs can be found with a very large number of subjects N. Thus, even assuming uniform distribution your chance of finding Lumley is 1/N -- where N is pretty large (much larger than for, say, SC 460/30). Second, consider that Lumley is a 150/350 subject and those subjects are in general much tougher to find with SC 350/25 than 350-only subjects are.

Not sure there's any consolation here; just trying to explain why you are having trouble finding them.

[sreader3]

Thanks for the info Scott. I am ignorant when it comes to the different print brand/factory/series etc. Could I assume there are less Fac25 vs Fac30 for the SC 150/350 because Fac25 had so many different type backs to print?

Donnie,

ATC had the cards printed up based on regional brand demand. Sweet Caporal was more popular in the Northeast than in the mid-Atlantic, hence more factory 30s than factory 25s. (Piedmont was the dominant brand in the mid-Atlantic).

Here are the Lumley pops from my most recent survey:

Piedmont 150 = 71
Sweet Cap 150 = 44
Sovereign 150 = 3
Brown Hindu = 1
EPDG = 6
Old Mill = 1
Piedmont 350 = 12
Sweet Cap 350 = 6

I don't have a factory breakdown, but I would venture to say a substantial majority of both the Sweet Cap 150s and 350s would be factory 30. So I think you have your work cut out, especially on the SC 350/25. Happy hunting!

Scot

Edited to add: You picked a difficult subject to start with. N for Lumley in my survey is only 144, compared to about 200 for a typical common.

[Mountaineer1999]

Great info Scott! I really appreciate the help & thanks for sharing your numbers! I'm in no huge hurry so maybe one day I'll get there. I think that the OM is going to be the hardest target.

[Leon]

Donnie,

ATC had the cards printed up based on regional brand demand. Sweet Caporal was more popular in the Northeast than in the mid-Atlantic, hence more factory 30s than factory 25s. (Piedmont was the dominant brand in the mid-Atlantic).

Here are the Lumley pops from my most recent survey:

Piedmont 150 = 71
Sweet Cap 150 = 44
Sovereign 150 = 3
Brown Hindu = 1
EPDG = 6
Old Mill = 1
Piedmont 350 = 12
Sweet Cap 350 = 6

I don't have a factory breakdown, but I would venture to say a substantial majority of both the Sweet Cap 150s and 350s would be factory 30. So I think you have your work cut out, especially on the SC 350/25. Happy hunting!

Scot

Edited to add: You picked a difficult subject to start with. N for Lumley in my survey is only 144, compared to about 200 for a typical common.

Thanks for helping and sharing, Scot. It is always interesting when a seemingly common back is more/as difficult (at least with respect to surveys) than a back that is known as much less common.(OM vs. Brown Hindu on this one).

[sreader3]

Leon,

It's my pleasure to share what I have learned. And let me say that I appreciate all you do to share information and captain the Net54 ship.

Most of the T206 150/350 subjects are very tough with Old Mill -- this was once not well known but, judging by recent prices, is now more common knowledge. And, more generally, the front and back availability of T206 subjects varies considerably from subject to subject--to a degree that would surprise a lot of folks.

Scot