1952 Topps Mantle; Worth It In Any Condition?

[Exhibitman]

An example sold last night in Sterling for $3,828. It looks like it went through a washing machine and dryer cycle:

http://sterlingsportsauctions.com/ItemImages/000028/28788a_lg.jpeg


This seems to have become a card that certain collectors are willing to fork over huge money to own in any condition, and one that has reached the point where the average collector is unable to afford one. I cannot believe that this trend can continue, because unlike the T206 Wagner, Plank or similar cards, there are a heck of a lot of these available. Your thoughts?

[SMPEP]

There are over 2,000 graded 1952 Mantle cards listed on the registries.

But from my perspective ... makes more sense to spend big money on the Mantle ... than it does for a PSA 10 card (of anyone) from the 1970s.

So if people are willing to spend a ridiculous price (forget the exact number but over $1,000 at the least) for a PSA 10 1973 Art Shell card, then I think the value of teh mantle is safe from several years to come.

Of course now that I give this forcast ... the price will crash!
Patrick

[Beatles Guy]

It is well centered though :)

[Beatles Guy]

I think baby boomers drive the market on this card. Once that generation starts to pass away, you will not have anyone who actually collected in that era or watched Mantle play. Therefore I think the demand will slow.

As a Gen-Xer, I love the card, it's been iconic since I started collecting in the 70's. However, if I had the disposable income to purchase one, I think I'd pass unless the deal was so good that I could flip it for a decent profit.

[Bocabirdman]

I think baby boomers drive the market on this card. Once that generation starts to pass away, you will not have anyone who actually collected in that era or watched Mantle play. Therefore I think the demand will slow.

As a Gen-Xer, I love the card, it's been iconic since I started collecting in the 70's. However, if I had the disposable income to purchase one, I think I'd pass unless the deal was so good that I could flip it for a decent profit.

Nobody alive has seen Ty Cobb play or Wagner or ...well you get the idea. Their prices are holding up just fine...........

[Beatles Guy]

Nobody alive has seen Ty Cobb play or Wagner or ...well you get the idea. Their prices are holding up just fine...........

I see your point. I would venture to say that there are a lot more '52 Mantle's out there than Cobb and Wagner.

[HappyJack41]

I'll just say this, I can think of A LOT better items to spend nearly $4,000 on than that faded piece of worn out, destroyed, scrap garbage :eek:

To answer your question, I don't see how the trend CAN'T continue......there's obviously no shortage of really, really "intelligent" people out there with too much money in their hands that are willing to pay $4,000 for scrap examples such as this when the card is actually so common and plentiful. Well over 2,000 examples......and that's just the graded ones! Haha. Doesn't even include all the raw specimens out there (probably actually closer to 3,000). It would be like the Griffey Jr. UD rookie fetching $100,000 20 years from now. I know seems so silly.....that's what everybody first thought in the early to mid 80's when the Mantle prices first started getting stupid.

[Exhibitman]

That's exactly my point, Roy. With thousands of these cards out there, no issue of scarcity exists, just demand.

[pawpawdiv9]

I had actually placed a early bid, and sat and watched it climb. I talked it over with another board guy (Bestdj777) who shared interest in almost anything Mantle. We thought near 2500 max, maybe near 3k tops would win this one. The image is still there and centered was a plus. Like i mentioned somewhere, it must been a few guys on a registry that needed one. Its the 'white whale' guys, i remember when i snagged mine, and how joyous i was when i got it. Some guys do it for the money, some do it for love of cardboard,

[HRBAKER]

I get the allure of the card but not that one.
I wouldn't be interested @ 10% of what it brought xc for the opportunity to sell it at a profit perhaps. That's hideous but beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[Bestdj777]

1952 Topps Mantles, in lower grade, have been going very strong over the last couple of years. I bought my first one roughly five years ago and paid a little less than this one. It was damaged, but I love it. When I went for my second, the price for anything somewhat presentable jumped by $500 or so dollars. I did not think that this would bring what it did. As I told Chris, I thought it was a $2,800 card and would have easily laid out the $2,000 on it myself it I thought I had a shot of winning it.

At the end of the day, some people like well loved Mantle cards. I happen to be one of them. And, you can apparently not get an authentic 52 Topps Mantle for less than $3,000 anymore.

Congrats to the buyer and the seller!

[MattyC]

When one accounts for the large amount of crackouts and crossovers, there are probably around 1300 or so graded by SGC and PSA. It is simply specious logic to try and disparage the hobby's most desired postwar icon by citing that number-- because the demand simply dwarfs it. Hence the prices examples fetch.

There could be five of a card on earth; if no one wants it, it's worthless. Like the card or not-- most do love it, and most do want one. And the relationship between the number of Mantles and those who want one is such that prices are what they are. If that relationship was the same as the UD Griffey, the card would cost the same as the Griffey. Sheer supply is only part of the equation, and focusing only on part will fail to give an accurate, complete picture.

Then a whole separate discussion is the difference between an average looking example and a beauty. Of all the examples extant, how many are off centered, tilted, or otherwise suffering in the eye appeal department? The rather fierce competition for the better looking specimens in turn makes it a desired piece, even in rough condition-- it becomes what some call an, "I just want to own a copy" card. The CJ Shoeless was like that for me-- an icon I could not find or afford in great shape, but was just overjoyed to even own a beater.

As to the future, no one knows-- but as a collector in his 30s, I can say that I and the probably twenty or so collectors I know between 30 and 35 all love and pursue the card. Our children already know how much it means to us, and all the reasons why, and some of those children may in turn grow up valuing the card. The same way I value a Gehrig or Ruth or others I never saw play. Heck, I never saw Mantle play; that doesn't prohibit me or others my age from studying the game, and becoming fans of past players, and wanting to collect them. That does not even factor in how, to a baseball card collector, certain cards-- especially the 1952 Topps Mantle-- have an historical value and cachet to the collecting hobby, beyond being an early card representing a great player.

Collectors in their 30s have a few good decades left to support the card. As do collectors in their 40s. So over the next few decades many of us will be enjoying either the hunt for or ownership of a cherished card.

It was mentioned that the prices began to skyrocket in the 80s. That means we have a 30+ year trend in progress, of this card being quite expensive. That is quite a long history.

Ultimately, collecting is a deeply personal endeavor and no one is ever forcing anyone else what cards to buy. That's why I always question why some take a supercilious stance against cards others like, and how another man wants to spend his hard-earned money. A collector just needs to be happy with cards, that's all. If the owner of that PSA 1 card is happy, that's all that matters.

[HRBAKER]

Don't disagree with your assessment, there is going to always need to be a group of people "who have to have one AND don't care how it looks" for examples like the one above to continue to grow in value. It's a key card in the hobby no doubt, there are a great number of collectors like myself who could buy one but have no real desire to own it though. Hopefully that sounds less supercilious to you.

[Republicaninmass]

"Worth it in any condition?"


Not to me.

Low grade with nice eye appeal will always be worth more than the same grade with less eye appeal. I'd hate to think anyone is spending their rent or 401k money on these low grade copies at, what is currently, the top of the market.

[HappyJack41]

When one accounts for the large amount of crackouts and crossovers, there are probably around 1300 or so graded by SGC and PSA. It is simply specious logic to try and disparage the hobby's most desired postwar icon by citing that number-- because the demand simply dwarfs it. Hence the prices examples fetch.

There could be five of a card on earth; if no one wants it, it's worthless. Like the card or not-- most do love it, and most do want one. And the relationship between the number of Mantles and those who want one is such that prices are what they are. If that relationship was the same as the UD Griffey, the card would cost the same as the Griffey. Sheer supply is only part of the equation, and focusing only on part will fail to give an accurate, complete picture.

Then a whole separate discussion is the difference between an average looking example and a beauty. Of all the examples extant, how many are off centered, tilted, or otherwise suffering in the eye appeal department? The rather fierce competition for the better looking specimens in turn makes it a desired piece, even in rough condition-- it becomes what some call an, "I just want to own a copy" card. The CJ Shoeless was like that for me-- an icon I could not find or afford in great shape, but was just overjoyed to even own a beater.

As to the future, no one knows-- but as a collector in his 30s, I can say that I and the probably twenty or so collectors I know between 30 and 35 all love and pursue the card. Our children already know how much it means to us, and all the reasons why, and some of those children may in turn grow up valuing the card. The same way I value a Gehrig or Ruth or others I never saw play. Heck, I never saw Mantle play; that doesn't prohibit me or others my age from studying the game, and becoming fans of past players, and wanting to collect them. That does not even factor in how, to a baseball card collector, certain cards-- especially the 1952 Topps Mantle-- have an historical value and cachet to the collecting hobby, beyond being an early card representing a great player.

Collectors in their 30s have a few good decades left to support the card. As do collectors in their 40s. So over the next few decades many of us will be enjoying either the hunt for or ownership of a cherished card.

It was mentioned that the prices began to skyrocket in the 80s. That means we have a 30+ year trend in progress, of this card being quite expensive. That is quite a long history.

Ultimately, collecting is a deeply personal endeavor and no one is ever forcing anyone else what cards to buy. That's why I always question why some take a supercilious stance against cards others like, and how another man wants to spend his hard-earned money. A collector just needs to be happy with cards, that's all. If the owner of that PSA 1 card is happy, that's all that matters.


Spoken like a true biased owner of a 1952 Mantle.......lol, just busting your balls. In all seriousness at the end of the day collectors are just grasping at straws just to own an abundantly available card. Buyer's remorse almost always sets in when dealing with pieces of trash such as this example. Which is why they're CONSTANTLY right back up for sale soon after the collector "get's it out of his system". Seen it time and time again over the past 20 years in this hobby.

[Exhibitman]

Matt, I don't think it is an issue of disparaging a marquee card, putting down someone else's spending choices, etc., and I understand that rare may equate to obscure and that high demand may equate to a high price. And I am by no means a condition bug. I really don't care about card condition...to a point. Most of my 'big' cards are lower grades; heck, I won this in the Sterling auction:

http://www.sterlingsportsauctions.com/ItemImages/000028/28705a_lg.jpeg

My question/observation is that the 1952 Mantle seems to have reached a point where simply having one is more important to some collectors than how it actually looks. The card in question is FUGLY--what we'd all call a filler for any other card--but still pulled in over $3800? I find that incredible for a postwar mainstream issue with thousands of known examples.

[MattyC]

Adam, well stated and I can't disagree that such a sum for such a card is really wild and eye catching.

Jack, all good, brother; my poor balls get so busted by work that getting them busted here is a joy and escape in comparison! Just talking cards in any capacity is pleasant on certain days.

[HappyJack41]

Jack, all good, brother; my poor balls get so busted by work that getting them busted here is a joy and escape in comparison! Just talking cards in any capacity is pleasant on certain days.

Yeah but at the end of each day you get to watch that beautiful sunset rest over the Pacific as that cool California breeze blissfully blows around you.......you're still the big winner vs. those whose nose hairs are frozen the moment they walk outside lol.

[MattyC]

Amen to that. You just inspired me to shut work down for the day and go jog on the beach. Then I will play even more hookey by blasting some college and high school punks in Call Of Duty.

[HappyJack41]

Amen to that. You just inspired me to shut work down for the day and go jog on the beach. Then I will play even more hookey by blasting some college and high school punks in Call Of Duty.


I wish I was your neighbor......I'd already be over hanging out lol

[kamikidEFFL]

Hey to say u own a 52 mantle even in the shape this one is in is still pretty cool. I don't know if I could of went this high but sometimes when bidding you can get lost in just saying you need to own it no matter what. Hey congrats to the guy who owns it now and hey maybe a heirloom for his kid

[Rickyy]

I think the demand is always there for this card...since many can't get into the big $ range...(like me) even the lesser grades are appealing for those who has to have one.

Ricky Y

[tonyo]

I just bought one (not the one in the OP) and I'm still trying to come to grips with the amount I paid, but since it arrived I've been admiring it. Still sitting on my desk, in front of me as I type, yet to join it's eventual place amongst my topps/bowman hof base card run.

There IS an allure unexplainable for a non poet such as myself.


Tony

p.s. low grade but a nicely center example for MattyC's benefit

[jb67]

Looks like buyer remorse or just good old capitalism at work. Card is for sale again.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-MICKEY-MANTLE-Rookie-New-York-Yankees-PSA-1-CENTERED-/361210652961?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item5419d52921

[Exhibitman]

Bought by a dealer to flip. Interesting to see if it goes.

[tonyo]

So much for the allure:)

[brob28]

Poor guy, seller is probably excited to see how many people are watching the card on Ebay, thinking they are potential bidders. My guess is many of them are those who have commented in or viewed this thread. :D

To the original point, I'm a more condition sensitive collector that would not purchase that card in that condition. However, I think there is a strong market for low condition iconic cards such as the Mantle simply due to the cost constraints. There are many collectors that want this card but do not have the means to purchase a nicer example hence a strong market for lower end cards. As for population, I believe there are a lot of '52 Mantles still ungraded in personal collections that will eventually be graded when the time comes to sell. Do those of you who follow this card see any signs of fluctuations in any particular condition ranges?

[pawpawdiv9]

:eek:Omg
The dude is trying to flip his 3,828.00 into 5k?? (he loses 500 on Ebays 10% fee, and then another 150 on paypal fees 3%)
In the end, pockets what is 4,350.
Defintely worth watching this and raising his views :D

[MattyC]

I thought ebay's cap was $250?

[7nohitter]

I could see myself putting down up to $1500 for that card, not $3800 and CERTAINLY not the 5K this new seller is trying to get.

I don't care about condition, as long as there is no paperloss or writing...eventually I would love to have this card, but I'll buy a Mathewson or Cobb T206 before I buy a '52 Mantle.

[HRBAKER]

Hey to say u own a 52 mantle even in the shape this one is in is still pretty cool. I don't know if I could of went this high but sometimes when bidding you can get lost in just saying you need to own it no matter what. Hey congrats to the guy who owns it now and hey maybe a heirloom for his kid

That gives a whole new perspective on "heirloom quality." I think this is a symptom of what happens in this hobby when "you have to have something." To me it leads down a lot of paths of being less discriminating on what you buy and who you buy it from in many instances. Not trying to be supercilious, just providing a POV.

[jason.1969]

This may be heresy to say, but I don't think the card looks THAT horrible. The color is nice, the centering is great, and it does show a picture of the Mick!

[pawpawdiv9]

Not to be hypocriticial, but i was just thinking>
The Sterling auction ended? Feb 5th right? (correct me if wrong)
and the person already has it in hand? or they are expecting to have it, when this auction ends on the 17th?

[MattyC]

One aspect that can't be overlooked is that when shopping on a budget within a specific grade, options can often be limited.

With respect to the 1952 Topps Mantle, there are 191 PSA 1s and 45 SGC 10s. With crack-outs and crossovers, there are likely considerably fewer than 236. Let's say an even 200.

If the price tag of the 2s is prohibitive to someone who wants one for their collection, then such a collector is relegated to seeking a POOR-grade specimen. This shopper would also likely and rightly surmise that a freakishly nice "PSA 1/SGC 10" would likely sell at auction or privately for much closer to a 1.5 or 2 price. So of those 200 cards in the shopper's grade/price range, many are going to look the part, meaning the grade.

So in the under 5k price tag, there is such a limited supply of the card relative to demand that it's no wonder there's stiff competition for the lowest graded examples these days. Pretty AUTHs command anywhere from 10k to 25k, and 2s are 10k+ now.

So if someone has 10k and beyond to shop for the card, their options are much greater than the collector seeking to drop only a couple grand.

[HappyJack41]

Looks like buyer remorse or just good old capitalism at work. Card is for sale again.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-MICKEY-MANTLE-Rookie-New-York-Yankees-PSA-1-CENTERED-/361210652961?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item5419d52921


Oh that's rich. It was insane somebody even went $3800 for this condition.....at $5K you need to be checked into a hospital with padded walls :)

[AustinMike]

My opinion is that the '52 Mantle is vastly overpriced at this time and will suffer a precipitous drop in value (most likely a 90% drop) tomorrow. But, being the nice guy that I am, I will gladly pay 20% of the current value, thereby minimizing your loss.

PS The same goes for every early Mantle that I still need.

:D

[CW]

Some guys do it for the money, some do it for love of cardboard.

Well said, Chris, and very true. In fact, I have just quoted you ^^^ for truth.

I just bought one (not the one in the OP) and I'm still trying to come to grips with the amount I paid, but since it arrived I've been admiring it. Still sitting on my desk...

Nice! Congrats and feel free to post a scan or picture.

[tonyo]

Nice! Congrats and feel free to post a scan or picture.

thanks! I'll post in the Feb pickups :)

[Exhibitman]

I was talking this over with some other members of the board at lunch Saturday and we all think this card is in a bubble given the demographic trend in the Hobby. With so many Boomer collectors reaching senior status in the next several years, the collecting base of the people who had the income to chase the low end Mantles and the nostalgia for the Mantle era is going to shrink, and grabbing a fugly version at any price may not be a good idea. And FWIW, losing your shirt on a card, which has happened to me a few times in the last year or two when I went to sell stuff I purchased in 07-08-09, sucks @$$.

[jason.1969]

I was talking this over with some other members of the board at lunch Saturday and we all think this card is in a bubble given the demographic trend in the Hobby. With so many Boomer collectors reaching senior status in the next several years, the collecting base of the people who had the income to chase the low end Mantles and the nostalgia for the Mantle era is going to shrink, and grabbing a fugly version at any price may not be a good idea. And FWIW, losing your shirt on a card, which has happened to me a few times in the last year or two when I went to sell stuff I purchased in 07-08-09, sucks @$$.
I wonder about this first part also. For many older collectors today, Mantle is first and foremost this incredible baseball talent and hero of our youth. Meanwhile for younger collectors Mantle is simply the guy whose cards are worth the most despite stats largely comparable to Frank Robinson.

[Donscards]

Mickey is still hot. I sold a nice PSA 5 last June for 20k. If I had the card now, it would go 25-27 k. I also sold a 3 for 10 k in nov. I did see a perfect centered PSA 5 Mickey sell for 26 k last nov, the dealer buyer then sold it to a customer for 30 k. I am still looking for 1952 Mantles. .

[brob28]

That gives a whole new perspective on "heirloom quality." I think this is a symptom of what happens in this hobby when "you have to have something." To me it leads down a lot of paths of being less discriminating on what you buy and who you buy it from in many instances. Not trying to be supercilious, just providing a POV.

You know what they say Jeff, People will gladly give up what they really want for what they can get today.

[brob28]

I was talking this over with some other members of the board at lunch Saturday and we all think this card is in a bubble given the demographic trend in the Hobby. With so many Boomer collectors reaching senior status in the next several years, the collecting base of the people who had the income to chase the low end Mantles and the nostalgia for the Mantle era is going to shrink, and grabbing a fugly version at any price may not be a good idea. And FWIW, losing your shirt on a card, which has happened to me a few times in the last year or two when I went to sell stuff I purchased in 07-08-09, sucks @$$.

I completely agree Adam. I don't think we'll see prices drop from the sky like a North Korean rocket, but I really do think prices will come down. Mantle's cards are so much more pricey than any other HOF player of his era but the cards themselves are generally not rarer. IMO when a PSA 1 '52 Mantle (particularly the one in the OP) costs more than virtually any PSA 3 T206 (excluding rare backs) HOF card including Wajo, Young & Cobb a correction is likely. As I'm typing this I'm curious, if the posters in this thread had to pick one pre-1980 player's cards that will have the most price depreciation in the next 20-30 years what would it be. For me it's Mantle, the main reason as Adam pointed out aging baby boomers.

[Econteachert205]

To me, the high condition examples of the card and it's prices represent the investment potential of the card while the low grade examples represent the desire factor. To that point I believe the higher grade examples will continue to appreciate given that it is an iconic card, while the low grade examples will level off for the baby boomer reasons already given.

[MattyC]

It all depends whom you talk to. I am 38 and my collecting friends are younger-- and we are all paying top dollar for the 1952 Mantle when a real pretty one surfaces. To desire and love the card, one doesn't have to be a boomer. Kids who grew up in the 1980's see it as an iconic piece for a collection. The dream card. Whereas the Wagner is not attainable. Those kids who grew up in the 80s will be competing for the nice ones for decades to come, even as the boomers phase out. Bottom line, there is a whole generation just entering prime earning years who look up to that card as much as the boomers did. Barring vagaries of the economy, I'd bet that anyone inclined to schadenfreude regarding this card will be waiting over a quarter century.

Also, one need not be a boomer to understand what Mantle was to America in a Post-War period when the country needed an icon, a matinee idol, a hero that looked every bit the part. Every time Mantle comes up, or his cards come up, there inevitably are collectors who point to his stats and scream, "Overvalued!" Yet they myopically miss the point and the larger picture. There are many intangibles when it comes to Mantle the man, his place in popular culture, and the hold that specific card-- the standard-bearer of the hobby to the generation who were kids in the 1980's. Many of us knew The Mantle, his 52 Topps, before we ever heard of The Wagner.

There is also a romantic, tragic angle to his story of such massive potential that went untapped and uncared for, and how he came to accept that, albeit too late. These are factors that transcend mere pop reports and the specious initial logic that holds in-person fans as the main or sole driver of demand for a player's cards. As someone said, the likes of Ruth, Gehrig, Shoeless, and Cobb would beg to differ there.

In the end, no one has a crystal ball, and probably most who own the card cherish it as a centerpiece of their collection-- and are much more concerned with enjoying it and the pleasure it brings, than what it might be sold for ten or twenty years from now. It seems the card hobby so often becomes about future prices and market trends, when, after all, these cherished pieces of Americana are not stocks.

[packs]

I tend to disagree. I never saw Ruth play and neither did most of the people who seek out his cards.

[brob28]

Leave Schadendreude out of this, she's a very nice lady.

I'm in the age group you describe Matt, but I never developed the fervor for Mantle that some others have. So perhaps it's just my preference. Don't get me wrong I have several Mantle cards, Mantle is significant ('56 is my fav.) I just see this card as an outlier when compared to every card I can think of that is as abundant. I figure I should add, I'm well versed in all the iconic nature of the card.

[brob28]

It all depends whom you talk to. I am 38 and my collecting friends are younger-- and we are all paying top dollar for the 1952 Mantle when a real pretty one surfaces. To desire and love the card, one doesn't have to be a boomer. Kids who grew up in the 1980's see it as an iconic piece for a collection. The dream card. Whereas the Wagner is not attainable. Those kids who grew up in the 80s will be competing for the nice ones for decades to come, even as the boomers phase out. Bottom line, there is a whole generation just entering prime earning years who look up to that card as much as the boomers did. Barring vagaries of the economy, I'd bet that anyone inclined to schadenfreude regarding this card will be waiting over a quarter century.

Also, one need not be a boomer to understand what Mantle was to America in a Post-War period when the country needed an icon, a matinee idol, a hero that looked every bit the part. Every time Mantle comes up, or his cards come up, there inevitably are collectors who point to his stats and scream, "Overvalued!" Yet they myopically miss the point and the larger picture. There are many intangibles when it comes to Mantle the man, his place in popular culture, and the hold that specific card-- the standard-bearer of the hobby to the generation who were kids in the 1980's. Many of us knew The Mantle, his 52 Topps, before we ever heard of The Wagner.

There is also a romantic, tragic angle to his story of such massive potential that went untapped and uncared for, and how he came to accept that, albeit too late. These are factors that transcend mere pop reports and the specious initial logic that holds in-person fans as the main or sole driver of demand for a player's cards. As someone said, the likes of Ruth, Gehrig, Shoeless, and Cobb would beg to differ there.

In the end, no one has a crystal ball, and probably most who own the card cherish it as a centerpiece of their collection-- and are much more concerned with enjoying it and the pleasure it brings, than what it might be sold for ten or twenty years from now. It seems the card hobby so often becomes about future prices and market trends, when, after all, these cherished pieces of Americana are not stocks.

While debating each cards merits is a part of the fun of this hobby, I agree 100% with your last paragraph and couldn't say it better. I've got plenty of cards, that I love and may take a bath on - I don't care I love the cards. Cheers

[HappyJack41]

It all depends whom you talk to. I am 38 and my collecting friends are younger-- and we are all paying top dollar for the 1952 Mantle when a real pretty one surfaces. To desire and love the card, one doesn't have to be a boomer. Kids who grew up in the 1980's see it as an iconic piece for a collection. The dream card. Whereas the Wagner is not attainable. Those kids who grew up in the 80s will be competing for the nice ones for decades to come, even as the boomers phase out. Bottom line, there is a whole generation just entering prime earning years who look up to that card as much as the boomers did. Barring vagaries of the economy, I'd bet that anyone inclined to schadenfreude regarding this card will be waiting over a quarter century.


I too am in my mid to late 30's and highly value the likes of many past greats that I obviously never saw play. I most definitely believe all Mantle cards will continue to gain small premiums, however further down the road, I truly don't believe they will sustain these stratospheric price levels for many more years to come. There is a little bit of a bubble going on right now with this card and it will eventually level out over time.

That doesn't mean that just anybody will be able to buy a nice copy, but as the TRUE driving force (baby boomer gen) behind the card's value over the past 30 years starts to age and move on, so will the overall value. There just simply isn't enough 25-40 year olds out there today right now with both the money AND the demand to keep this going another 20-30 years at these prices. Yes a small handful of serious Mantle collectors can keep prices fairly high, but I believe what we're seeing now is sort of a topping out phase before the bubble eventually (and it will) bursts over the next decade. Currently it's a seller's market and for buyer's, it's a HORRIBLE time to decide you "need" to have a 1952 Mantle lol.

[jason.1969]

There is another force as work besides potentially decreased demand for Mantles relative to other cardboard. We should see the available supply creep up as well as boomers...brace yourself...die and their Mantles they never wanted to part with end up with with their kids who are anxious to liquidate. Still, I see prices going up for another 15 years before they go down at all.

[GregC]

I don't think there is much I can add that Matt didn't already say.

People are always bringing up how "overpriced" his cards are but they have held some of the highest prices in our Hobby since the initial boom in the 1980s. Why is it so shocking that they have continued to sustain these prices and climb in times of economic growth when many collectors have more disposable cash on hand to indulge in their cardboard vices?

The OP is an example that is not winning any beauty pageants but comparative to the going rate for attractive low grade examples, $3800ish isn't crazy. If it goes to a collector that is happy to have it and couldn't afford better what does it matter?

I recently added an SGC 1.5 to my collection. I didn't want to spend north of $10k on the card and can tell from experience, shopping in the Auth, 1 and 1.5 ranks with any modicum of eye appeal does not leave many options.

1300-2000 examples is simply not enough to keep up with demand. Consider many collectors don't have $10k+ to drop on a card and that leaves a small percentage of the pop that is actually attainable.

[HappyJack41]

There is another force as work besides potentially decreased demand for Mantles relative to other cardboard. We should see the available supply creep up as well as boomers...brace yourself...die and their Mantles they never wanted to part with end up with with their kids who are anxious to liquidate. Still, I see prices going up for another 15 years before they go down at all.

That could certainly be said for many, many collections (not just Mantles) that will be coming available over the next 10-15 years as they become liquidated. And let's not foget, doesn't have to be a deat, there's millions of baby boomers that have already entered or will soon be entering the retirement golden years which means money will be greatly needed for living and traveling in their twilight years. There's gonna be PLENTY of opportunities to acquire many great cards over the next decade that's for sure.

[ullmandds]

To me...not worth spending thousands to have...esp in such crappy condition!

Lots of valid points have already been voiced...I am of the camp that the price/demand for mantle rookies will decrease over time as the boomers die off.

But...I think buying a 51 bowman mantle true rookie could be a better purchase these days.

[HappyJack41]

With all of this said.......Matt when you're ready to sell that 4.5, I'm your man :D

[1952boyntoncollector]

That could certainly be said for many, many collections (not just Mantles) that will be coming available over the next 10-15 years as they become liquidated. And let's not foget, doesn't have to be a deat, there's millions of baby boomers that have already entered or will soon be entering the retirement golden years which means money will be greatly needed for living and traveling in their twilight years. There's gonna be PLENTY of opportunities to acquire many great cards over the next decade that's for sure.

no one ever predicts the market to go down in 5 years...its always '10 or 15 years...why? cause when the consensus is 5 years....then its too late....the great selloff begins......

[the 'stache]

I guess I'll throw my hat into the discussion.

I don't mean to disrespect the buyer at all, as I am sure they are happy with their purchase. But I just couldn't pull the trigger on that card. Someday I will own a '52 Topps Mantle. And it will be in the lower grade, probably no higher than a PSA 2 or so. But there are so many examples of the same card in a PSA 1-2 that have much better eye appeal. Yes, they would command more than the $3,825 it cost to acquire this card, but wouldn't it be worth it?

This PSA 1 was recently sold on eBay by PWCC for $6,600. Yes, it's a lot more than what was paid for the one being discussed. But look at the difference in appearance.

http://imageshack.com/a/img673/7466/1ym8ms.jpg

I would much rather have this one because, well, it looks like a '52 Topps Mantle. The other one was run through the wash, and I don't want a card merely to say I own it. I want a card I could enjoy, and this one, with the higher price tag, would make me happy.

I know the centering is off (sorry, Matt :D ), but we're talking about the king of modern cards, and everybody wants one. I'd take what I could get without going over $10,000.

[mrmantlecollector]

%

[HRBAKER]

I agree that if the buyer would be happy then he made the right call for himself. This looks to be a speculator who thinks that $3800 is a cost that can be recouped and then some due to the demand that surrounds the card. Maybe so. For me this is not the $3800 Mantle card I want to be holding when the music stops.

I guess looking at it another way from my perspective. If in order to have a Ferrari, I have to buy a smashed up, rusted out one that doesn't run then I am not sure I have a Ferrari. Just a personal thing, to each their own.

I do not think that examples like this will continue to follow the escalation trail and be dragged up infinitum by the overall strength of demand of the card. There has to be some sort of limit to what most people would pay for a card that looks like this regardless of what card it started out as.

[Section103]

These cards are way out of my reach; but if they weren't, I'd still take the 51 Bowman every day of the week before the 52 Topps.

[thecardstore99]

In terms of supply and demand, I think it's worth considering that many of the 1300-2000 known graded copies may never hit the market and will remain in private collections. So I can easily see this card appreciate in value over time given the number of actual available copies.

I do like the idea that a previous poster made about the supply possibly increasing as the older population starts to pass and the kids sell off their father's collection. But it's also possible the cards stay in the family and never hit the market.

Since you never know when the next time you'll see a PSA 1 Mantle hit the open market again, I can understand why collectors are willing to pay the prices they are paying.

[pawpawdiv9]

I was just browsing and noticed on the right side- popular ebay items
and this laundry washed-out Mantle was advertised on Ebay.
Apparently the guy that bought it from Sterlings, sold it for the 5k we saw in the previous Ebay listing, well this time it is listed for 8K by someone else now.
:eek:
Note**** how the seller has a 52 Mick pictured, but the description says 51 bowman
If the prices are going thru the roof on these 52 Micks, it will take no time to reach Babe Ruth status, give it like 10 or even 20 yrs, we be seeing Honus Wagner figures. :D
Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-Mickey-Mantle-Rookie-RC-311-PSA-1-PR-FR/221703489234?_trksid=p2045573.c100034.m2102&_trkparms=aid%3D222007%26algo%3DSIC.MBE%26ao%3D1%2 6asc%3D28797%26meid%3D84b909c837984fea9368bc23041d 54d1%26pid%3D100034%26rk%3D4%26rkt%3D8%26sd%3D3112 21347229

[1952boyntoncollector]

In terms of supply and demand, I think it's worth considering that many of the 1300-2000 known graded copies may never hit the market and will remain in private collections. So I can easily see this card appreciate in value over time given the number of actual available copies.

I do like the idea that a previous poster made about the supply possibly increasing as the older population starts to pass and the kids sell off their father's collection. But it's also possible the cards stay in the family and never hit the market.

Since you never know when the next time you'll see a PSA 1 Mantle hit the open market again, I can understand why collectors are willing to pay the prices they are paying.


when you get the card for free its much easier to sell it....

[egri]

I'd give the Mantle market another couple of years to run, then I think we'll see the prices start to stabilize and even decrease. The average American income is $50,000, and I can't see this trend of shelling out 1/10th of that for a beat up Mantle continuing on much longer. If anything, it will hasten the bursting of the bubble, as old collectors and their kids decide they'd rather have the money than the cardboard.

[GregC]

I'd give the Mantle market another couple of years to run, then I think we'll see the prices start to stabilize and even decrease. The average American income is $50,000, and I can't see this trend of shelling out 1/10th of that for a beat up Mantle continuing on much longer. If anything, it will hasten the bursting of the bubble, as old collectors and their kids decide they'd rather have the money than the cardboard.

I agree that the hot run the card is on cannot be sustained long term and prices will level off but I don't think it will decrease. I also don't think the potential buyer is someone making the $50k avg salary.

[MattyC]

Yeah, I think the average salary stat-- while true as a stat on its own-- is not a factor in the Mantle discussion. For over 30 years now, the pool of people who have decided to spend a nice sum for any baseball card have likely not been in that average income pool. In other words, just because the average income person can't afford a Ferrari (or any expensive luxury item), doesn't mean Ferraris are gonna start selling for less. That said, if somebody is a true collector and wants to own their grail, who the heck wants to wait years-- five, ten, twenty-- to see IF the price stabilizes or drops a bit?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Yeah, I think the average salary stat-- while true as a stat on its own-- is not a factor in the Mantle discussion. For over 30 years now, the pool of people who have decided to spend a nice sum for any baseball card have likely not been in that average income pool. In other words, just because the average income person can't afford a Ferrari (or any expensive luxury item), doesn't mean Ferraris are gonna start selling for less. That said, if somebody is a true collector and wants to own their grail, who the heck wants to wait years-- five, ten, twenty-- to see IF the price stabilizes or drops a bit?


eh I don't thing the Ferrari ownership and old card ownership are the same thing..people wont dump 50% of their salary in a car as much as guys in this hobby ..im not going by empirical data..but I do see card buyers making 30k in purchases..then 5 months later having to sell their cards to pay bills...that doesn't seem to happen much on the Ferrari market as a reason so sell the car...

add another 10-20k on the mantle like it has over the years the buying pool is reducing.......

again just off the cuff thinking..but that's my thoughts..

[MattyC]

We can all check in in several years and see how Mantles and the hobby as a whole are doing. Until then, passionate collectors who love their cards will enjoy them.

[Econteachert205]

We're talking about ferraris that don't run, rusted out with broken windows being psa 1s. If I'm rich I'm buying a decent one, if I'm buying a terrible one it's to fix it up. You can't fix up a psa 1 mantle and keep it in the case so I argue your talking about sentimentality, and that almost always loses money.

[1952boyntoncollector]

We're talking about ferraris that don't run, rusted out with broken windows being psa 1s. If I'm rich I'm buying a decent one, if I'm buying a terrible one it's to fix it up. You can't fix up a psa 1 mantle and keep it in the case so I argue your talking about sentimentality, and that almost always loses money.

my argument is against buying the mantles as less people that buy them now wont be able to afford the bigger price..and the people buying them are more in the 50k range than people think because they are prepared to dump their salary in them...but there is a breaking point as they are not 'Ferrari owner' type people...again not all the buyers..but there are enough of them to be out of the market if the price point goes up...

I not into buying old Ferraris..but we all like to buy houses that are fixer uppers....not only can they be fixed and sold good as new which you cant do with the mantles psa 1s unless you buy a fake holder etc.....but you don't have to pay the higher property taxes on a house you fix up versus buying a shiny brand new one for more money..

[Bestdj777]

My only concern with the Mantle market is whether there will be a next generation of serious baseball card collectors. I grew up in the 80s, when card collecting was huge and this card was the pinnacle. I think thay was a huge draw to many of the people that are now buying. That said, are the 2000s kids going to follow in our footsteps? I am not so sure. But, I don't have any immediate plans to part with any of my Mantle rookies, so I'm likely less concerned than others.

[1952boyntoncollector]

My only concern with the Mantle market is whether there will be a next generation of serious baseball card collectors. I grew up in the 80s, when card collecting was huge and this card was the pinnacle. I think thay was a huge draw to many of the people that are now buying. That said, are the 2000s kids going to follow in our footsteps? I am not so sure. But, I don't have any immediate plans to part with any of my Mantle rookies, so I'm likely less concerned than others.


Yes I would would be worried about kids in the 1990s..but the 1980s kids are fine and they would have many buying years left..

I think really just the best of the best players will have value down the line...a guy like George foster for example...20 years ago we would have looked at him as a former star..but now he is common....so the 'stars' become commons..but the Cobb/Ruth/Mantle of the world seem fine to hold..